Spaces:
Running
Running
| model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper | |
| Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.074,-0.013,0.155 | |
| Chronos-2,TiRex,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.09,0.029,0.154 | |
| Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.094,0.007,0.17 | |
| Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.032,-0.019,0.085 | |
| Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.135,0.041,0.217 | |
| Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.158,0.087,0.23 | |
| Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.254,0.121,0.374 | |
| Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.223,0.102,0.311 | |
| Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.306,0.193,0.402 | |
| Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.583,0.277,0.786 | |
| Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.334,0.21,0.443 | |
| Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.47,0.339,0.574 | |
| Chronos-2,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.47,0.339,0.574 | |
| Chronos-2,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.471,0.345,0.573 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.08,-0.183,0.013 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.018,-0.013,0.055 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.441,0.853,0.022,-0.021,0.069 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.045,-0.165,0.048 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.066,0.003,0.129 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.529,0.941,0.09,0.009,0.166 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.194,0.052,0.328 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.16,0.096,0.212 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.25,0.13,0.351 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.552,0.23,0.773 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.281,0.166,0.396 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.32,0.524 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.32,0.524 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.429,0.318,0.531 | |
| TiRex,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.099,-0.182,-0.03 | |
| TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.018,-0.058,0.013 | |
| TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.004,-0.049,0.05 | |
| TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.064,-0.173,0.025 | |
| TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.049,-0.016,0.111 | |
| TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.074,0.012,0.134 | |
| TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.18,0.039,0.314 | |
| TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.145,0.058,0.21 | |
| TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.237,0.118,0.336 | |
| TiRex,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.546,0.218,0.771 | |
| TiRex,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.268,0.157,0.384 | |
| TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.417,0.297,0.517 | |
| TiRex,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.417,0.297,0.517 | |
| TiRex,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.418,0.302,0.522 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.104,-0.205,-0.007 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.147,0.559,-0.022,-0.074,0.02 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.004,-0.052,0.047 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.069,-0.189,0.026 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.045,-0.019,0.121 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.07,0.004,0.14 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.176,0.046,0.302 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.142,0.079,0.197 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.233,0.12,0.33 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.547,0.218,0.773 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.265,0.158,0.37 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.414,0.309,0.505 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.414,0.309,0.505 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.311,0.512 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.033,-0.093,0.019 | |
| TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.043,-0.05,0.142 | |
| TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.06,-0.026,0.148 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.064,-0.027,0.159 | |
| TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.106,-0.008,0.214 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.13,0.035,0.223 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.229,0.083,0.352 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.197,0.086,0.291 | |
| TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.283,0.174,0.367 | |
| TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.57,0.25,0.783 | |
| TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.312,0.194,0.414 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.452,0.325,0.553 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.452,0.325,0.553 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.453,0.326,0.558 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.156,-0.277,-0.042 | |
| Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.07,-0.148,-0.003 | |
| Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.051,-0.125,0.016 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.047,-0.138,0.018 | |
| Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.119,-0.272,0.008 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.026,-0.034,0.083 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.137,0.008,0.263 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.101,-0.014,0.191 | |
| Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.197,0.061,0.317 | |
| Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.528,0.182,0.766 | |
| Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,0.941,0.231,0.116,0.341 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.387,0.259,0.495 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.387,0.259,0.495 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.388,0.271,0.491 | |
| Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.187,-0.299,-0.095 | |
| Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.471,-0.099,-0.199,-0.009 | |
| Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.08,-0.154,-0.012 | |
| Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.075,-0.162,-0.004 | |
| Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.149,-0.287,-0.036 | |
| Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.027,-0.091,0.033 | |
| Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.114,0.007,0.225 | |
| Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.077,-0.049,0.18 | |
| Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.176,0.076,0.271 | |
| Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.518,0.172,0.758 | |
| Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.21,0.105,0.308 | |
| Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.37,0.244,0.475 | |
| Toto-1.0,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.37,0.244,0.475 | |
| Toto-1.0,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.372,0.261,0.465 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.34,-0.597,-0.138 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.241,-0.488,-0.055 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.219,-0.459,-0.041 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.214,-0.433,-0.048 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.297,-0.543,-0.09 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.159,-0.358,-0.008 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.129,-0.291,-0.007 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.042,-0.256,0.132 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.07,-0.035,0.195 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.467,0.051,0.734 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.108,0.041,0.196 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.289,0.169,0.395 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.289,0.169,0.395 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.291,0.192,0.377 | |
| Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.286,-0.452,-0.114 | |
| Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.191,-0.269,-0.106 | |
| Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.17,-0.266,-0.062 | |
| Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.165,-0.245,-0.086 | |
| Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.245,-0.41,-0.094 | |
| Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.113,-0.236,0.014 | |
| Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.084,-0.22,0.047 | |
| Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.04,-0.152,0.204 | |
| Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.107,-0.056,0.237 | |
| Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.475,0.09,0.736 | |
| Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.144,0.008,0.266 | |
| Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,0.943,0.318,0.194,0.423 | |
| Sundial-Base,Naive,0.824,0.647,0.943,0.318,0.194,0.423 | |
| Sundial-Base,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.319,0.181,0.442 | |
| AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.44,-0.673,-0.239 | |
| AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.334,-0.542,-0.149 | |
| AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.31,-0.505,-0.134 | |
| AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.304,-0.493,-0.136 | |
| AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.394,-0.58,-0.21 | |
| AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.246,-0.465,-0.065 | |
| AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.213,-0.372,-0.082 | |
| AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.075,-0.242,0.034 | |
| AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.12,-0.31,0.053 | |
| AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.42,-0.002,0.715 | |
| AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.041,-0.062,0.118 | |
| AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.236,0.096,0.346 | |
| AutoARIMA,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.236,0.096,0.346 | |
| AutoARIMA,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.238,0.1,0.354 | |
| AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.4,-3.668,-0.383 | |
| AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.233,-3.406,-0.299 | |
| AutoETS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-1.201,-3.366,-0.279 | |
| AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.206,-3.408,-0.279 | |
| AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-1.326,-3.6,-0.333 | |
| AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-1.121,-3.271,-0.223 | |
| AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-1.074,-3.125,-0.207 | |
| AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.877,-2.759,-0.053 | |
| AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.903,-2.791,-0.099 | |
| AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.724,-2.513,0.002 | |
| AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.694,-2.439,0.032 | |
| AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.529,0.882,-0.385,-1.856,0.2 | |
| AutoETS,Naive,0.706,0.529,0.882,-0.385,-1.856,0.2 | |
| AutoETS,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,-0.39,-1.866,0.187 | |
| AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.503,-0.796,-0.266 | |
| AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.391,-0.657,-0.2 | |
| AutoTheta,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.367,-0.624,-0.186 | |
| AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.361,-0.587,-0.187 | |
| AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.454,-0.706,-0.24 | |
| AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.059,0.353,-0.3,-0.517,-0.131 | |
| AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.266,-0.446,-0.117 | |
| AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.121,-0.244,-0.043 | |
| AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.168,-0.362,-0.008 | |
| AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.043,-0.134,0.059 | |
| AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.41,-0.033,0.709 | |
| AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.203,0.105,0.29 | |
| AutoTheta,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.203,0.105,0.29 | |
| AutoTheta,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.205,0.11,0.297 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.885,-1.345,-0.512 | |
| Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.103,-0.471 | |
| Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.715,-1.069,-0.423 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.707,-1.02,-0.448 | |
| Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.825,-1.236,-0.481 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.631,-0.979,-0.35 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.588,-0.905,-0.322 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.407,-0.653,-0.204 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.057,0.353,-0.465,-0.735,-0.241 | |
| Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.309,-0.53,-0.106 | |
| Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.471,0.278,-0.25,0.65 | |
| Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.255,-0.407,-0.117 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.003,-0.067,0.061 | |
| Naive,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.885,-1.345,-0.512 | |
| Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.103,-0.471 | |
| Naive,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.715,-1.069,-0.423 | |
| Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.707,-1.02,-0.448 | |
| Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.825,-1.236,-0.481 | |
| Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.631,-0.979,-0.35 | |
| Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.588,-0.905,-0.322 | |
| Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.407,-0.653,-0.204 | |
| Naive,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.057,0.353,-0.465,-0.735,-0.241 | |
| Naive,AutoARIMA,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.309,-0.53,-0.106 | |
| Naive,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.471,0.278,-0.25,0.65 | |
| Naive,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.255,-0.407,-0.117 | |
| Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Naive,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.003,-0.067,0.061 | |
| Drift,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.89,-1.34,-0.527 | |
| Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.75,-1.131,-0.465 | |
| Drift,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.719,-1.091,-0.433 | |
| Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.711,-1.05,-0.451 | |
| Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.829,-1.263,-0.484 | |
| Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.635,-0.965,-0.372 | |
| Drift,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.592,-0.871,-0.352 | |
| Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.41,-0.606,-0.237 | |
| Drift,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.469,-0.793,-0.221 | |
| Drift,AutoARIMA,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.312,-0.548,-0.111 | |
| Drift,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,0.28,-0.23,0.651 | |
| Drift,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.258,-0.422,-0.124 | |
| Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.003,-0.065,0.063 | |
| Drift,Naive,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.003,-0.065,0.063 | |
| Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |