data/predictions.jsonl

{"id":"2c9ec686d6fb404b","statement":"AI agents will automate >30% of standard customer support tickets in major US retail firms by 2024-Q3.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in labor with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"labor","confidence":0.5,"horizon":"2024-Q3","resolution_date":"2026-05-12","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.245776","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.246329","brier":0.25}
{"id":"5475d0bd9f279b09","statement":"The cost of 1M output tokens for GPT-4 level models will drop below $0.05 by 2024-Q1.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in compute with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"compute","confidence":0.5,"horizon":"2024-Q1","resolution_date":"2026-03-18","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.246510","status":"resolved_false","outcome":false,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was falsified by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.246547","brier":0.25}
{"id":"5032852b2d7991a8","statement":"The US and China will sign a joint declaration or treaty on AI safety guidelines by 2024-Q4.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in policy with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"policy","confidence":0.5,"horizon":"2024-Q4","resolution_date":"2026-06-08","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.246591","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.246620","brier":0.25}
{"id":"4b13980b4115a3fe","statement":"AI agents will automate >30% of standard customer support tickets in major US retail firms by 2024-Q2.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in labor with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"labor","confidence":0.5,"horizon":"2024-Q2","resolution_date":"2026-05-14","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.246653","status":"resolved_false","outcome":false,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was falsified by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.246669","brier":0.25}
{"id":"f09e5cfd720df3e2","statement":"A major government will mandate safety evaluations for models exceeding 1e25 FLOPs by 2024-Q1.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in policy with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"policy","confidence":0.5,"horizon":"2024-Q1","resolution_date":"2026-04-02","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.246696","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.246709","brier":0.25}
{"id":"631653c32f4faaa3","statement":"Sovereign supercomputers in the EU will account for >15% of global training compute by 2024-Q4.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in compute with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"compute","confidence":0.5,"horizon":"2024-Q4","resolution_date":"2026-05-15","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.246735","status":"resolved_false","outcome":false,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was falsified by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.246754","brier":0.25}
{"id":"d25f4b19c129a2b3","statement":"Venture capital funding for semiconductor startups will reach an all-time high by 2024-Q3.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in capital with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"capital","confidence":0.6,"horizon":"2024-Q3","resolution_date":"2026-06-12","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.246780","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.246807","brier":0.16000000000000003}
{"id":"6711ea4e2dc8489c","statement":"The BLS productivity index for the services sector will grow by >3.0% annually by 2024-Q2.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in macro with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"macro","confidence":0.6,"horizon":"2024-Q2","resolution_date":"2026-04-30","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.246950","status":"resolved_false","outcome":false,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was falsified by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.246975","brier":0.36}
{"id":"3ac50fa5c9a98a5d","statement":"AI agents will automate >30% of standard customer support tickets in major US retail firms by 2024-Q4.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in labor with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"labor","confidence":0.6,"horizon":"2024-Q4","resolution_date":"2026-05-31","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247016","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247036","brier":0.16000000000000003}
{"id":"ce971d54363d7ad7","statement":"A major central bank will mention 'artificial intelligence productivity impacts' in its rate decision notes by 2024-Q3.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in macro with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"macro","confidence":0.6,"horizon":"2024-Q3","resolution_date":"2026-06-07","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247100","status":"resolved_false","outcome":false,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was falsified by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247133","brier":0.36}
{"id":"988d8e95fcc34bab","statement":"Venture capital funding for semiconductor startups will reach an all-time high by 2024-Q1.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in capital with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"capital","confidence":0.6,"horizon":"2024-Q1","resolution_date":"2026-04-25","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247177","status":"resolved_false","outcome":false,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was falsified by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247206","brier":0.36}
{"id":"80c8ce1e4e562235","statement":"A study will find net software engineering employment in the US grew despite copilot adoption by 2024-Q3.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in labor with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"labor","confidence":0.7,"horizon":"2024-Q3","resolution_date":"2026-03-24","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247250","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247272","brier":0.09000000000000002}
{"id":"0a03c1b61a567797","statement":"A US state will pass legislation banning autonomous vehicles from freight transport by 2024-Q2.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in policy with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"policy","confidence":0.7,"horizon":"2024-Q2","resolution_date":"2026-03-14","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247309","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247329","brier":0.09000000000000002}
{"id":"2c0a32668be213ae","statement":"A major US warehouse operator will deploy humanoid robots for sorting by 2024-Q1.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in labor with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"labor","confidence":0.7,"horizon":"2024-Q1","resolution_date":"2026-04-25","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247436","status":"resolved_false","outcome":false,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was falsified by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247469","brier":0.48999999999999994}
{"id":"6dc9f32e80b2fb04","statement":"FRED data will show tech sector capital expenditure has increased by >40% year-over-year by 2024-Q3.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in macro with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"macro","confidence":0.7,"horizon":"2024-Q3","resolution_date":"2026-05-23","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247513","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247536","brier":0.09000000000000002}
{"id":"f4eb1ec5d58ab5dd","statement":"A major central bank will mention 'artificial intelligence productivity impacts' in its rate decision notes by 2024-Q2.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in macro with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"macro","confidence":0.7,"horizon":"2024-Q2","resolution_date":"2026-03-19","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247579","status":"resolved_false","outcome":false,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was falsified by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247605","brier":0.48999999999999994}
{"id":"eba960b8a8fc9cda","statement":"The price of electricity in major data center hubs will rise by >20% due to AI workloads by 2024-Q1.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in macro with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"macro","confidence":0.8,"horizon":"2024-Q1","resolution_date":"2026-03-27","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247652","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247679","brier":0.03999999999999998}
{"id":"7a0a516b44a0927c","statement":"A leading AI lab will publish a research paper demonstrating 10x compute savings in training via new architectures by 2024-Q2.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in compute with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"compute","confidence":0.8,"horizon":"2024-Q2","resolution_date":"2026-05-23","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247722","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247744","brier":0.03999999999999998}
{"id":"21a9185369e037c0","statement":"Tech giant capital expenditure on data centers will exceed $150B in a single fiscal year by 2024-Q3.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in capital with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"capital","confidence":0.8,"horizon":"2024-Q3","resolution_date":"2026-03-23","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247793","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247816","brier":0.03999999999999998}
{"id":"1dba34a365ba45e5","statement":"An EU member state will issue the first major fine (>10M Euros) under the EU AI Act by 2024-Q3.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in policy with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"policy","confidence":0.8,"horizon":"2024-Q3","resolution_date":"2026-06-05","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247861","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247882","brier":0.03999999999999998}
{"id":"ee10ddc2e1d9571e","statement":"A model trained with >1e26 FLOPs will be open-sourced by a major lab by 2024-Q3.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in compute with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"compute","confidence":0.8,"horizon":"2024-Q3","resolution_date":"2026-04-22","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247926","status":"resolved_false","outcome":false,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was falsified by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247949","brier":0.6400000000000001}
{"id":"d38234b601b114da","statement":"The US GDP growth rate will exceed 3.5% for two consecutive quarters driven by productivity gains by 2024-Q2.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in macro with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"macro","confidence":0.8,"horizon":"2024-Q2","resolution_date":"2026-04-01","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.247992","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.248021","brier":0.03999999999999998}
{"id":"6f2c17923173060c","statement":"The BLS productivity index for the services sector will grow by >3.0% annually by 2024-Q4.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in macro with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"macro","confidence":0.9,"horizon":"2024-Q4","resolution_date":"2026-04-23","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.248105","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.248138","brier":0.009999999999999995}
{"id":"8aabeb4718aac9a2","statement":"An AI-focused startup will go public at a valuation exceeding $50B by 2024-Q3.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in capital with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"capital","confidence":0.9,"horizon":"2024-Q3","resolution_date":"2026-05-26","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.248176","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.248196","brier":0.009999999999999995}
{"id":"485afc499aeb100a","statement":"Sovereign supercomputers in the EU will account for >15% of global training compute by 2024-Q3.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in compute with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"compute","confidence":0.9,"horizon":"2024-Q3","resolution_date":"2026-03-30","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.248244","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.248276","brier":0.009999999999999995}
{"id":"753cb399a0465d0d","statement":"Venture capital funding for semiconductor startups will reach an all-time high by 2024-Q4.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in capital with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"capital","confidence":0.9,"horizon":"2024-Q4","resolution_date":"2026-04-27","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.248321","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.248343","brier":0.009999999999999995}
{"id":"e4ef505e1ffc8bf9","statement":"The cost of 1M output tokens for GPT-4 level models will drop below $0.05 by 2024-Q4.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in compute with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"compute","confidence":0.9,"horizon":"2024-Q4","resolution_date":"2026-06-01","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.248387","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.248409","brier":0.009999999999999995}
{"id":"0acc2f64131462ab","statement":"A tech firm with >1000 employees will replace its entire first-line IT support with an AI agent by 2024-Q4.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in labor with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"labor","confidence":1.0,"horizon":"2024-Q4","resolution_date":"2026-03-28","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.248610","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.248638","brier":0.0}
{"id":"e094ef22ae9a3aaa","statement":"A national union will successfully negotiate a contract containing specific AI deployment limits by 2024-Q1.","rationale":"Analyzing historical trends in labor with focus on productivity capture and scaling laws.","category":"labor","confidence":1.0,"horizon":"2024-Q1","resolution_date":"2026-03-17","resolution_criteria":"Determined via public economic reports and news search.","sources":["https://www.example.com/source1","https://www.example.com/source2"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.248771","status":"resolved_true","outcome":true,"judged_rationale":"Evaluated based on actual outcomes. The claim was validated by subsequent events.","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.248802","brier":0.0}
{"id":"9c1ecd8271991b63","statement":"A US state will pass legislation banning autonomous vehicles from freight transport by 2026-Q3.","rationale":"Current projection for policy shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.","category":"policy","confidence":0.37,"horizon":"2026-Q3","resolution_date":"2027-03-01","resolution_criteria":"To be resolved via official statistics and regulatory announcements.","sources":["https://www.example.com/forecast_source"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.248868","status":"open","outcome":null,"judged_rationale":"","resolved_at":null,"brier":null}
{"id":"bde6af9d6dcc0468","statement":"A major cloud provider will announce a dedicated 100k GPU cluster for a single tenant by 2026-Q1.","rationale":"Current projection for compute shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.","category":"compute","confidence":0.92,"horizon":"2026-Q1","resolution_date":"2026-12-03","resolution_criteria":"To be resolved via official statistics and regulatory announcements.","sources":["https://www.example.com/forecast_source"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.248935","status":"open","outcome":null,"judged_rationale":"","resolved_at":null,"brier":null}
{"id":"cd83b0cdc91e1747","statement":"An EU member state will issue the first major fine (>10M Euros) under the EU AI Act by 2026-Q1.","rationale":"Current projection for policy shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.","category":"policy","confidence":0.87,"horizon":"2026-Q1","resolution_date":"2026-12-21","resolution_criteria":"To be resolved via official statistics and regulatory announcements.","sources":["https://www.example.com/forecast_source"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.249014","status":"open","outcome":null,"judged_rationale":"","resolved_at":null,"brier":null}
{"id":"f5cf2a1890f34695","statement":"A major government will mandate safety evaluations for models exceeding 1e25 FLOPs by 2026-Q2.","rationale":"Current projection for policy shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.","category":"policy","confidence":0.4,"horizon":"2026-Q2","resolution_date":"2026-10-12","resolution_criteria":"To be resolved via official statistics and regulatory announcements.","sources":["https://www.example.com/forecast_source"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.249103","status":"open","outcome":null,"judged_rationale":"","resolved_at":null,"brier":null}
{"id":"f5757878471b388c","statement":"A major government will mandate safety evaluations for models exceeding 1e25 FLOPs by 2026-Q1.","rationale":"Current projection for policy shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.","category":"policy","confidence":0.69,"horizon":"2026-Q1","resolution_date":"2027-03-29","resolution_criteria":"To be resolved via official statistics and regulatory announcements.","sources":["https://www.example.com/forecast_source"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.249165","status":"open","outcome":null,"judged_rationale":"","resolved_at":null,"brier":null}
{"id":"a22b995e903f1a12","statement":"AI agents will automate >30% of standard customer support tickets in major US retail firms by 2026-Q3.","rationale":"Current projection for labor shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.","category":"labor","confidence":0.87,"horizon":"2026-Q3","resolution_date":"2026-12-26","resolution_criteria":"To be resolved via official statistics and regulatory announcements.","sources":["https://www.example.com/forecast_source"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.249221","status":"open","outcome":null,"judged_rationale":"","resolved_at":null,"brier":null}
{"id":"52223c60959fc653","statement":"A model trained with >1e26 FLOPs will be open-sourced by a major lab by 2026-Q2.","rationale":"Current projection for compute shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.","category":"compute","confidence":0.87,"horizon":"2026-Q2","resolution_date":"2026-08-31","resolution_criteria":"To be resolved via official statistics and regulatory announcements.","sources":["https://www.example.com/forecast_source"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.249280","status":"open","outcome":null,"judged_rationale":"","resolved_at":null,"brier":null}
{"id":"df19c463c16612ce","statement":"A national union will successfully negotiate a contract containing specific AI deployment limits by 2026-Q4.","rationale":"Current projection for labor shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.","category":"labor","confidence":0.83,"horizon":"2026-Q4","resolution_date":"2027-04-20","resolution_criteria":"To be resolved via official statistics and regulatory announcements.","sources":["https://www.example.com/forecast_source"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.249333","status":"open","outcome":null,"judged_rationale":"","resolved_at":null,"brier":null}
{"id":"2473984390a4d22a","statement":"The cost of 1M output tokens for GPT-4 level models will drop below $0.05 by 2026-Q4.","rationale":"Current projection for compute shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.","category":"compute","confidence":0.92,"horizon":"2026-Q4","resolution_date":"2026-10-14","resolution_criteria":"To be resolved via official statistics and regulatory announcements.","sources":["https://www.example.com/forecast_source"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.249396","status":"open","outcome":null,"judged_rationale":"","resolved_at":null,"brier":null}
{"id":"57118b3d224691ac","statement":"An economic study will attribute a drop in youth employment in developed nations to entry-level automation by 2026-Q4.","rationale":"Current projection for macro shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.","category":"macro","confidence":0.93,"horizon":"2026-Q4","resolution_date":"2027-04-24","resolution_criteria":"To be resolved via official statistics and regulatory announcements.","sources":["https://www.example.com/forecast_source"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.249446","status":"open","outcome":null,"judged_rationale":"","resolved_at":null,"brier":null}
{"id":"88bfdfacb4dfe9b5","statement":"Sovereign supercomputers in the EU will account for >15% of global training compute by 2026-Q3.","rationale":"Current projection for compute shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.","category":"compute","confidence":0.56,"horizon":"2026-Q3","resolution_date":"2027-01-29","resolution_criteria":"To be resolved via official statistics and regulatory announcements.","sources":["https://www.example.com/forecast_source"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.249496","status":"open","outcome":null,"judged_rationale":"","resolved_at":null,"brier":null}
{"id":"610fe8d1f27638bc","statement":"Venture capital funding for semiconductor startups will reach an all-time high by 2026-Q4.","rationale":"Current projection for capital shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.","category":"capital","confidence":0.38,"horizon":"2026-Q4","resolution_date":"2026-11-14","resolution_criteria":"To be resolved via official statistics and regulatory announcements.","sources":["https://www.example.com/forecast_source"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.249542","status":"open","outcome":null,"judged_rationale":"","resolved_at":null,"brier":null}
{"id":"78e6224541ae6244","statement":"The number of remote data-labeler jobs globally will double due to RLHF demand by 2026-Q1.","rationale":"Current projection for labor shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.","category":"labor","confidence":0.68,"horizon":"2026-Q1","resolution_date":"2026-11-16","resolution_criteria":"To be resolved via official statistics and regulatory announcements.","sources":["https://www.example.com/forecast_source"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.249594","status":"open","outcome":null,"judged_rationale":"","resolved_at":null,"brier":null}
{"id":"c74c094e40bf3bb8","statement":"A major US warehouse operator will deploy humanoid robots for sorting by 2026-Q1.","rationale":"Current projection for labor shows accelerating diffusion curves combined with friction.","category":"labor","confidence":0.89,"horizon":"2026-Q1","resolution_date":"2027-01-07","resolution_criteria":"To be resolved via official statistics and regulatory announcements.","sources":["https://www.example.com/forecast_source"],"created_at":"2026-06-22T14:45:56.249697","status":"open","outcome":null,"judged_rationale":"","resolved_at":null,"brier":null}