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| title: Slipstream | |
| emoji: π | |
| colorFrom: blue | |
| colorTo: green | |
| sdk: docker | |
| app_port: 7860 | |
| pinned: false | |
| short_description: Smart-money, quality, trend-adaptive paper fund + picks | |
| # Slipstream | |
| A quality, trend-adaptive equity **paper fund** that drafts the smart money. | |
| **Strategy (rule v2, Oct 2026):** hold the large-caps that concentrated 13F managers are collectively | |
| buying β every filer with 10β150 positions, $250Mβ$100B and β₯40% in its top 10 (rule-based, ~900β1,500 a | |
| quarter); signal = 2Β·new + add β 2Β·exit conviction positions β restricted to the top-1,000 by market cap | |
| and to companies whose ROA is in the **top 30% of their sector**; top-20 dollar-weighted (**1β10% per | |
| name**, β€5 per sector) with a **dynamic sector cap** (each sector 30% Β± its 12-1m relative strength, | |
| 15β45%) and a **regime overlay** that rotates into large-cap momentum when SPY is in a confirmed | |
| downtrend. An AI overlay excludes only names hit by a critical adverse event. Rebalanced monthly. | |
| Backtest 2014-03 β 2026-10 (survivorship-free, data through *d* β 1, 20 bp/side, Sharpe net of T-bills): | |
| CAGR 19.9% vs SPY 13.9%, Sharpe 0.85 vs 0.73, max drawdown -37.5% vs -33.7%, | |
| alpha +3.9% (t 1.8), Ξ² 1.17. Chosen on 2016β2021 from ~210 configurations; it trailed SPY over the | |
| never-used 2014-03 β 2016-02 window. Research and pre-registrations: `Quant Model/data/research/slipstream/`. | |
| The page shows the live Alpaca **paper** portfolio, performance vs SPY, the current | |
| target book, and the informational **Top AI Picks of the Month** panels. | |
| ## Setup (Space secrets) | |
| Add these under *Settings β Variables and secrets*: | |
| | Secret | Purpose | | |
| |---|---| | |
| | `ALPACA_API_KEY`, `ALPACA_SECRET_KEY` | your Alpaca **paper** account (required) | | |
| | `ALPACA_PAPER_ENDPOINT` | optional, defaults to `https://paper-api.alpaca.markets` | | |
| | `REBALANCE_TOKEN` | enables the rebalance executor (send as `X-Rebalance-Token`) | | |
| | `GEMINI_API_KEY` | optional β picks screener + event-risk overlay (preferred). Model via `GEMINI_MODEL`, default `gemini-flash-lite-latest` (~$0.10/mo at this volume) | | |
| | `ALPHAVANTAGE_API_KEY` | optional β needed to refresh the News panel with live data | | |
| | `ANTHROPIC_API_KEY` / `OPENAI_API_KEY` | optional β fallback screeners if no `GEMINI_API_KEY` | | |
| | `SLIPSTREAM_CASH_BUFFER` | optional, default `0.01` β fraction of equity the executor keeps in cash | | |
| The picks panels ship with a **cached fallback** (`data/*_deep.json`): a panel whose live | |
| refresh fails β no key, a rate-limit, a scrape change β serves the last good result flagged | |
| *stale* instead of erroring. A key only enables the β» Refresh button to re-screen live. | |
| Screener preference: Gemini β Anthropic β OpenAI. | |
| The fund only ever trades the **paper** endpoint. Rebalance is dry-run by default; a real | |
| submit needs `dry=0` **and** the matching `REBALANCE_TOKEN`. | |
| ## Rebalance | |
| `POST /api/rebalance?dry=1` returns the trade plan (no orders). Monthly, trigger a real | |
| rebalance with `POST /api/rebalance?dry=0` and header `X-Rebalance-Token: <token>`. A Hugging | |
| Face scheduled Job (`rebalance`, weekdays 15:00 UTC, `ops/hf_ops.py` in the Refinery Space) does this | |
| every weekday, and the Space no-ops until the first market-open day of the month. | |
| The executor sizes the book off `(1 β CASH_BUFFER) Γ equity`, never 100%: a fully-invested | |
| target plus the min-trade deadband (small overweights are never sold) had left the account on a | |
| standing margin balance. Sells are placed first and **waited for** before buys go in. | |
| ## Ops | |
| - **Supervisor** β `GET /api/supervisor` is a flag-only monitor (tracking vs SPY, guardrails, | |
| freshness). The HF scheduled Job `supervisor` runs it **daily** (13:00 UTC). On ALERT it opens | |
| a discussion on this Space, which HF notifies you about. It doubles as the keep-alive: free Spaces | |
| sleep after 48 h idle, and the weekday-only rebalance ping left it asleep every weekend. | |
| All schedules (refresh, rebalance, supervisor, shadow book) are HF Jobs. See the Refinery README. | |
| - **Restarts are safe.** All fund state lives in Alpaca. `data/` caches (picks, risk screen) are | |
| ephemeral inside the container β a restart just recomputes them (one LLM call per panel, one | |
| for the screen), and the shipped caches serve meanwhile. | |
| - **Public by design.** The dashboard, holdings and dry-run plan are world-readable (it's a paper | |
| account). If you flip the Space to private under *Settings*, give the Jobs' requests an | |
| `Authorization: Bearer` header (`ops/hf_ops.py` currently calls the public URL). | |
| ## Data refresh | |
| The smart-money signal bundle in `data/` is regenerated by `engine/export_bundle.py` (run where | |
| the licensed Sharadar cache lives) and committed. Refresh it **weekly**: 13F is quarterly and | |
| ~45-day lagged, but `prices.parquet` feeds the sector-strength and momentum sleeves, and the | |
| supervisor WATCHes at 10 days / ALERTs at 14. The regime test (SPY vs 200-day MA) additionally | |
| pulls SPY **live** from Alpaca, so the fund's biggest switch never waits on the bundle. | |