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| # 90-Second Demo Script — Underdog Lab | |
| _Record with a warm Space. All scenario examples use real challenge or World Cup 2026 data._ | |
| ## Beat 1 — Hook (0–15s) | |
| “Most AI football predictions are unsupported guesses. Underdog Lab separates | |
| language understanding from probability. A small local model extracts WHAT changed. | |
| Transparent math owns the numbers.” | |
| Show the World Cup 2026 Live tab with the tournament snapshot card: | |
| - 48 teams, 72 group fixtures | |
| - Recorded results (as of June 12 cutoff) | |
| ## Beat 2 — World Cup forecast (15–30s) | |
| Select Group A. Show the table with Mexico and South Korea at 3 points. | |
| Scroll through fixture probabilities. | |
| Point to the evidence card: “The fitted model beats the previous baseline | |
| across 8,265 no-lookahead test matches. The 360M language model never writes a | |
| probability.” | |
| ## Beat 3 — Scenario extraction (30–50s) | |
| Switch to Challenge tab. Select a hidden historical match. | |
| Enter: | |
| > Canada's striker is confirmed out. | |
| Click **Translate scenario**. | |
| “The local model extracts: key_attacker_unavailable. Team: home. Severity 1.0, | |
| certainty 0.9. It never predicts a score — it only classifies the story.” | |
| Point to the Before/After probability bars. | |
| ## Beat 4 — Backend honesty (50–60s) | |
| “When the model produces zero-weight output, the system flags it visibly as | |
| a deterministic fallback. No silent degradation.” | |
| Show the backend label in the factors card. | |
| ## Beat 5 — Stress test (60–72s) | |
| Switch to Scenario Stress Test. Move severity from 25% to 100%. | |
| “Every adjustment is bounded and versioned. You can inspect exactly why the | |
| probability changed.” | |
| ## Beat 6 — Reveal and scoring (72–85s) | |
| Return to Challenge. Commit a forecast. Reveal the result. | |
| “You, the baseline, and the scenario-adjusted model are all scored with proper | |
| scoring rules. Lower log loss wins. A surprising outcome does not by itself | |
| invalidate a calibrated forecast.” | |
| ## Beat 7 — Tiny Model Lab + close (82–90s) | |
| Show Tiny Model Lab tab. | |
| “The QLoRA adapter failed its ship gate, so I rejected it. The safer base model | |
| ships locally with visible fallback. Every probability remains auditable.” | |
| ## Recording notes | |
| - Use a warm Space (pre-loaded model, pre-cached first scenario). | |
| - Record at 1080p. Zoom browser to 120% for readability. | |
| - No voiceover over slider movement — let the visual speak. | |
| - Show the backend label clearly when mentioning honesty. | |
| - Keep the Space URL visible in the browser bar for the first and last 5 seconds. | |