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Vidvuds Calitis
Alright — that’s basically “swinging for the fat pitches” (Buffett-style patience) but applied to extreme market cycles. It can work, but only if you have: A way to define what counts as a bubble or crisis (clear signals, not vibes). A playbook for what to buy/sell when the trigger hits. Capital ready and protected during the waiting years. Here’s a practical game plan: 1. Define Your Triggers (Objective, Quantitative) You need rules so you don’t jump too early or too late. Bubble trigger (overheated markets) CAPE ratio > 35 for equities. Price-to-sales of S&P 500 > 3. Commodity prices 100%+ above long-term median. Crypto: parabolic + 3x-5x in <12 months + extreme funding rates. Crisis trigger (panic, liquidity crunch) VIX > 40 for stocks. High-yield spreads > 8%. Market down 30%+ from highs in <12 months. Commodities: 50%+ drop from recent peak within a year. 2. What You Do in Each Scenario Bubble: Short via index puts, leveraged inverse ETFs, or shorting overvalued sectors. Sell your long-term holdings that are in the “froth zone.” Rotate into safe assets: short-term Treasuries, gold, USD cash. Crisis: Deploy capital in tranches (25%/25%/25%/25%) as market falls. Buy undervalued broad indices (S&P 500, MSCI World, sector ETFs) and the best quality companies. For commodities, secure exposure via futures or ETFs when prices are at multi-year lows. Crypto: accumulate BTC/ETH at historical on-chain floor metrics (realized price, MVRV < 1). 3. Risk Management Keep 70–90% of your net worth in safe liquid assets when no trigger is active. Only risk 10–20% of capital on bubble shorts — these can be mistimed and blow up. In crises, spread buys over 6–18 months to avoid catching a falling knife. 4. Tools & Tracking Set alerts for your trigger metrics (TradingView, Koyfin, custom Python scripts). Maintain a “Crash War Chest” in high-yield savings or T-bills. Keep a watchlist of assets you’ll pounce on (and their target prices). use dark theme use pretty charts - Follow Up Deployment
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