| --- |
| license: apache-2.0 |
| tags: [time-series, forecasting, foundation-model, tokenizer-ablation, toto-2-recipe] |
| --- |
| # TSFM tokenizer ablation — Toto-2-4m-recipe clone (v10) |
|
|
| LEARNED-tokenizer ablation (discrete bottlenecks vs raw patches at equal token count) on a ~3.6M-param decoder-only patched transformer |
| trained on the OFFICIAL TempoPFN synthetic prior generators (cloned from |
| automl/TempoPFN; GP/KernelSynth families capped at 6,144 steps, so the long |
| pool uses the cheap families only) with contiguous patch |
| masking, a 9-level quantile head, NorMuon+AdamW, and index RoPE at |
| time-scaled positions. Horizon decoding is fixed patch-32 in every arm; only |
| the CONTEXT tokenizer varies: |
|
|
| | arm | tokenizer | history | ctx tokens | |
| |-----|-----------|---------|-----------| |
| | T0 | fixed-32 (control) | 4,096 | 128 | |
| | T1 | pyramid, iso-context | 4,096 | 44 | |
| | T2 | pyramid, iso-token | 16,384 | 128 | |
| | T3 | adaptive equal-surprise | 16,384 | 128 | |
|
|
| Each subfolder is one (arm, seed) run: `model.pt` (final), `ckpt_15000.pt` |
| (rank-stability snapshot), `config.json`, `results.json` (dev-GIFT CRPS + |
| long-horizon probe). Dev metrics use a fixed 14-task GIFT-Eval subset — NOT |
| the full leaderboard; treat numbers as ablation-internal, not comparable to |
| published GIFT scores. Generated by the v10 experiment notebook. |
|
|
| ## Results |
| ``` |
| === transfer curve: GM-CRPS by checkpoint (dev-14, mean over seeds) === |
| gm@7500 gm@15000 gm@22500 gm@final gm_final_std long_season params_m perp probe_amp n |
| arm |
| L2_vq_tpfn 0.2219 0.2324 0.2314 0.2089 0.0032 0.2594 3.7130 422.0938 0.2360 3 |
| L0_fixed_tpfn 0.2166 0.2258 0.2101 0.2106 0.0085 0.2632 3.5802 NaN 0.1910 3 |
| L1_fsq_tpfn 0.2400 0.2494 0.2500 0.2333 0.0021 0.2733 3.6827 5.4675 0.3427 3 |
| |
| --- tripwire checks --- |
| L2_vq_tpfn vs L0_fixed_tpfn: final gap=0.0017 -> UNRESOLVED (< 2*sigma) |
| L0_fixed_tpfn vs L1_fsq_tpfn: final gap=0.0226 -> RESOLVED |
| L0_fixed_tpfn: TRANSFER INVERSION — best at ckpt #3 (0.2101) vs final (0.2106); synthetic overfit persists |
| |
| ``` |
|
|
