| --- |
| license: apache-2.0 |
| tags: [time-series, forecasting, foundation-model, tokenizer-ablation, toto-2-recipe] |
| --- |
| # TSFM tokenizer ablation — Toto-2-4m-recipe clone (v10) |
|
|
| VQ-VAE OPTIMIZATION ablation (codebook health + next-code objective vs raw patches) on a ~3.6M-param decoder-only patched transformer |
| trained on the OFFICIAL TempoPFN synthetic prior generators (cloned from |
| automl/TempoPFN; GP/KernelSynth families capped at 6,144 steps, so the long |
| pool uses the cheap families only) with contiguous patch |
| masking, a 9-level quantile head, NorMuon+AdamW, and index RoPE at |
| time-scaled positions. Horizon decoding is fixed patch-32 in every arm; only |
| the CONTEXT tokenizer varies: |
|
|
| | arm | tokenizer | history | ctx tokens | |
| |-----|-----------|---------|-----------| |
| | T0 | fixed-32 (control) | 4,096 | 128 | |
| | T1 | pyramid, iso-context | 4,096 | 44 | |
| | T2 | pyramid, iso-token | 16,384 | 128 | |
| | T3 | adaptive equal-surprise | 16,384 | 128 | |
|
|
| Each subfolder is one (arm, seed) run: `model.pt` (final), `ckpt_15000.pt` |
| (rank-stability snapshot), `config.json`, `results.json` (dev-GIFT CRPS + |
| long-horizon probe). Dev metrics use a fixed 14-task GIFT-Eval subset — NOT |
| the full leaderboard; treat numbers as ablation-internal, not comparable to |
| published GIFT scores. Generated by the v10 experiment notebook. |
|
|
| ## Results |
| ``` |
| === transfer curve: GM-CRPS by checkpoint (dev-14, mean over seeds) === |
| gm@7500 gm@15000 gm@22500 gm@final gm_final_std long_season params_m perp probe_amp n |
| arm |
| M2_vqce_tpfn 0.2143 0.2073 0.2272 0.2006 0.0048 0.2611 3.9762 305.9201 0.196 2 |
| M0_raw_tpfn 0.2111 0.2178 0.2066 0.2060 0.0044 0.2598 3.5802 NaN 0.208 2 |
| M1_vqtuned_tpfn 0.2371 0.2264 0.2271 0.2140 0.0083 0.2608 3.7130 367.0948 0.320 2 |
| |
| --- tripwire checks --- |
| M2_vqce_tpfn vs M0_raw_tpfn: final gap=0.0055 -> UNRESOLVED (< 2*sigma) |
| M0_raw_tpfn vs M1_vqtuned_tpfn: final gap=0.0080 -> UNRESOLVED (< 2*sigma) |
| |
| ``` |
|
|
