Thibaut Forest
Claude Opus 5 (1M context)
Phase 56: NEW CHAMPION logbag_rank + gbm rank-blend w=0.30 (purge 1630.3, was 1972.0)
698401a Purge-CV re-run — live agent reports (2026-08-22)
Full re-adjudication of every improvement idea (old and new, including
previously public-refuted axes, per user directive) on THE SCORE:
the temporal-purge CV (cv all48oof), champion baseline 1972.0
(warmup 3560.3 / panel 1839.6 / nearend 604.8, n_swaps 9.2).
Every candidate is evaluated PAIRED per scenario against the champion baseline (/tmp/cv_all48oof.csv): delta mean, SE of paired deltas, W/L, swap count. Survivor bar: ALL48 delta < 0 beyond ~2*SE with swaps ~flat.
One file per worker (updated live by that worker only):
| file | theme |
|---|---|
| wave1_registry.md | mechanical re-run of all 25 OOF_CANDIDATES registry entries + champion-repeat noise floor |
| ft_findings.md | new feature engineering |
| md_findings.md | model families & hyperparameters |
| pl_findings.md | planner: knobs, day placement, appetite (reopened) |
| bl_findings.md | blends, ensembles, calibration |
| tr_findings.md | training-data composition: weights, labels, sampling |
| rk_findings.md | learning-to-rank objectives |
| wd_findings.md | untested registry kinds + wild-card methods, cert-first (reopened) |
| tj_findings.md | RADICAL: voltage-trajectory forecasting, mechanistic death-rule application |
| sv_findings.md | RADICAL: survival curves + decision-theoretic visit-day planner |
| e2_findings.md | RADICAL: end-to-end plan optimization, fleet-level death forecasting |
Per-candidate CSVs: /tmp/cv_oofcand_