Thibaut Forest
Claude Opus 5 (1M context)
Phase 56: NEW CHAMPION logbag_rank + gbm rank-blend w=0.30 (purge 1630.3, was 1972.0)
698401a Wave 1 — full OOF_CANDIDATES registry re-run under the temporal purge
STATUS: DONE 2026-08-22 ~16:05. 25 registry candidates + champion repeat, all full-48, zero failures. Baseline: champion logbag/base ALL48 = 1972.0, swaps 9.21. Paired per scenario. Harness verified DETERMINISTIC (champrep delta exactly 0.0 on all 48) — every nonzero delta is a real method effect; only scenario-sampling noise (SE) matters.
| label | ALL48 | delta | SE | W/L | swaps | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| logbag_rank | 1746.4 | -225.6 | 74.0 | 34W/11L | 9.5 | SURVIVOR bar met |
| vrel_only | 1854.5 | -117.5 | 49.5 | 32W/14L | 8.4 | wins, but count-shifted |
| vrel | 1855.3 | -116.7 | 50.3 | 32W/16L | 8.4 | wins, but count-shifted |
| rf | 1887.3 | -84.7 | 67.6 | 29W/19L | 9.8 | negative, inside noise |
| blind4 | 1905.9 | -66.1 | 61.8 | 28W/20L | 8.3 | negative, inside noise |
| vcorr | 1913.1 | -58.9 | 39.9 | 29W/15L | 9.1 | negative, inside noise |
| rankavg25rf | 1919.7 | -52.3 | 31.5 | 28W/11L | 9.1 | negative, inside noise |
| rankavg25fht | 1924.4 | -47.6 | 34.6 | 20W/25L | 9.5 | negative, inside noise |
| dthaz | 1933.0 | -39.0 | 34.3 | 22W/26L | 9.6 | negative, inside noise |
| ranks | 1934.6 | -37.4 | 89.5 | 27W/21L | 9.1 | rejected |
| rankavg25gbm | 1943.3 | -28.7 | 40.8 | 25W/17L | 9.1 | rejected |
| logbagC03 | 1952.7 | -19.3 | 22.1 | 15W/11L | 9.2 | rejected |
| logbagC01 | 1957.5 | -14.5 | 25.8 | 23W/12L | 9.3 | rejected |
| logistic | 1971.9 | -0.1 | 20.1 | 8W/11L | 9.2 | rejected |
| champrep | 1972.0 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0W/0L | 9.2 | noise floor: exactly 0 |
| zone | 1975.7 | +3.7 | 41.3 | 18W/28L | 10.1 | rejected |
| vrel_bldg | 1986.0 | +14.0 | 8.8 | 14W/24L | 9.2 | rejected |
| blind3 | 1997.4 | +25.4 | 64.3 | 21W/27L | 10.5 | rejected |
| gbm | 2000.5 | +28.5 | 84.5 | 24W/24L | 8.5 | rejected |
| vmin7_only | 2013.0 | +41.0 | 25.1 | 15W/23L | 9.1 | rejected |
| rankavg25tau | 2017.1 | +45.1 | 38.6 | 15W/24L | 9.6 | rejected |
| aux_ucb05 | 2066.8 | +94.8 | 50.4 | 11W/36L | 9.4 | rejected |
| aux_ucb10 | 2079.1 | +107.1 | 49.2 | 11W/35L | 9.6 | rejected |
| logbag_aux | 2095.8 | +123.8 | 47.2 | 12W/34L | 9.2 | rejected |
| v_last_only | 2425.2 | +453.2 | 77.1 | 6W/42L | 11.0 | rejected |
Reading
- logbag_rank is the wave-1 headline: -225.6 +/- 74.0 (t=-3.05), 34W/11L, swaps 9.5 (~flat). Champion + within-origin fleet-rank features (r_vlast, r_tau). Linear, rank-based - no same-device memorization channel. This kind was REJECTED on the old self-fit instrument (phase 8 lineage); the purge reverses it. Combination runs (x vrel, x rf-blend) queued.
- vrel / vrel_only (-117, t=-2.3, swaps 8.4): fleet-relative voltage transfers; second real signal.
- bl_rf35 (-81, t=-2.06, swaps flat 9.2): rf rank-blend at 35% - flexible-family purge flattery caveat applies (accepted by user directive; flagged, not vetoed).
- gbm alone (+28.5) and aux features (logbag_aux +123.8) are clearly rejected under purge.
- v_last_only (+453) demolishes the blind-repo phase-39 claim on this instrument.
- Multiplicity note: ~60 candidates adjudicated so far; expected max |t| under the global null is ~2.6-2.9, so a lone t=-3.05 is suggestive-strong, not conclusive. The W/L record (34/11) and combination behavior are the confirmation instruments (harness is deterministic; re-running the same config adds no information).
Agent-prefixed rows (pl_/bl_/tr_/rk_...) live in the agents' own files; the aggregate is
venv/bin/python -m batteryswap_example.cv oofreport.