king-1 / STRATEGY.md
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cascade generator submission: king-1
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king-1 — Forecast quality (process realism)

Lever: better synthetic prior → lower geomean on held-out pool.

Code base: t_smo_v5-style generator (NumPy/SciPy).

Key ideas:

  • weekly_demand (~8%) for retail/load calendar structure
  • ARIMA-style correlated increments in _integrated
  • RBF/RQ spectral GP on 2L circulant embedding (no wrap artifact)
  • Prefix-causal measurement artifacts
  • Forecastable pulse timing

Score with:

cascade verify ./king-1 --chain-toml chain.toml
cascade score ./king-1 --pool-dir ./my-heldout --device cuda --train-hours 0.5 --n-windows 256