research/sop_library/pattern_finding.md

SOP 03 — PATTERN FINDING

USE WHEN: looking for recurring structure across events or claims.

1. COLLECT: list every event/claim with date, actor, and source.
2. CLUSTER: group by similarity (actor, method, target, timing, claim shape).
3. COMMON CAUSE: for each cluster, propose the mechanism that links members.
4. NULL TEST: state what pattern would look like if the mechanism were false; look for counterexamples deliberately.
5. STRENGTH: rate pattern as weak (coincidence not excluded) / moderate / strong (counterexamples searched, mechanism evidenced).
6. ESCALATION: note whether clusters grow, accelerate, or repeat cyclically.
7. Stop when: clusters, mechanism, counterexamples, and strength are stated.

OUTPUT: cluster table + mechanism + counterexamples + strength rating.