AFOS · USA 2024 Electoral Divergence — initial dataset (market × polls × press, honest two-market case)
dd99673 | cff-version: 1.2.0 | |
| message: "If you use this dataset, please cite it as below." | |
| title: "AFOS · USA 2024 Electoral Divergence Dataset" | |
| abstract: >- | |
| Open dataset cross-referencing opinion polls, prediction markets and press | |
| coverage for the 2024 U.S. presidential election (Harris vs Trump), with | |
| explicit poll-versus-market divergence rather than a blended average — and | |
| reported honestly, including where the market was wrong. On the eve of the | |
| vote the electoral-college winner market (US$3.7bn) favored Trump and was | |
| right, while the popular-vote market favored Harris and erred; the national | |
| polls were a near-tie. Poll toplines come from FiveThirtyEight's public 2024 | |
| database (via the Internet Archive Wayback snapshot of 4 Nov 2024); market | |
| odds from Polymarket; press anchors are Wayback-archived. | |
| type: dataset | |
| authors: | |
| - name: "AFOS Analytics" | |
| website: "https://afos-analytics.com" | |
| keywords: | |
| - elections | |
| - United States | |
| - prediction markets | |
| - opinion polls | |
| - press | |
| - divergence | |
| - open data | |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 | |
| repository: "https://huggingface.co/datasets/AFOS-Analytics1/usa-2024-electoral-divergence" | |
| url: "https://afos-analytics.com" | |
| version: "2026.06" | |
| date-released: "2026-06-19" | |