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ncclient/ncclient
ncclient/operations/edit.py
CopyConfig.request
def request(self, source, target): """Create or replace an entire configuration datastore with the contents of another complete configuration datastore. *source* is the name of the configuration datastore to use as the source of the copy operation or `config` element containing the configuration subtree to copy *target* is the name of the configuration datastore to use as the destination of the copy operation :seealso: :ref:`srctarget_params`""" node = new_ele("copy-config") node.append(util.datastore_or_url("target", target, self._assert)) try: # datastore name or URL node.append(util.datastore_or_url("source", source, self._assert)) except Exception: # `source` with `config` element containing the configuration subtree to copy node.append(validated_element(source, ("source", qualify("source")))) return self._request(node)
python
def request(self, source, target): node = new_ele("copy-config") node.append(util.datastore_or_url("target", target, self._assert)) try: # datastore name or URL node.append(util.datastore_or_url("source", source, self._assert)) except Exception: # `source` with `config` element containing the configuration subtree to copy node.append(validated_element(source, ("source", qualify("source")))) return self._request(node)
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Create or replace an entire configuration datastore with the contents of another complete configuration datastore. *source* is the name of the configuration datastore to use as the source of the copy operation or `config` element containing the configuration subtree to copy *target* is the name of the configuration datastore to use as the destination of the copy operation :seealso: :ref:`srctarget_params`
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2b75f2c6a06bd2a5d1be67b01bb65c5ffd2e2d7a
https://github.com/ncclient/ncclient/blob/2b75f2c6a06bd2a5d1be67b01bb65c5ffd2e2d7a/ncclient/operations/edit.py#L87-L106
236,301
ncclient/ncclient
ncclient/operations/edit.py
Validate.request
def request(self, source="candidate"): """Validate the contents of the specified configuration. *source* is the name of the configuration datastore being validated or `config` element containing the configuration subtree to be validated :seealso: :ref:`srctarget_params`""" node = new_ele("validate") if type(source) is str: src = util.datastore_or_url("source", source, self._assert) else: validated_element(source, ("config", qualify("config"))) src = new_ele("source") src.append(source) node.append(src) return self._request(node)
python
def request(self, source="candidate"): node = new_ele("validate") if type(source) is str: src = util.datastore_or_url("source", source, self._assert) else: validated_element(source, ("config", qualify("config"))) src = new_ele("source") src.append(source) node.append(src) return self._request(node)
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Validate the contents of the specified configuration. *source* is the name of the configuration datastore being validated or `config` element containing the configuration subtree to be validated :seealso: :ref:`srctarget_params`
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2b75f2c6a06bd2a5d1be67b01bb65c5ffd2e2d7a
https://github.com/ncclient/ncclient/blob/2b75f2c6a06bd2a5d1be67b01bb65c5ffd2e2d7a/ncclient/operations/edit.py#L114-L128
236,302
ncclient/ncclient
ncclient/operations/lock.py
Lock.request
def request(self, target="candidate"): """Allows the client to lock the configuration system of a device. *target* is the name of the configuration datastore to lock """ node = new_ele("lock") sub_ele(sub_ele(node, "target"), target) return self._request(node)
python
def request(self, target="candidate"): node = new_ele("lock") sub_ele(sub_ele(node, "target"), target) return self._request(node)
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Allows the client to lock the configuration system of a device. *target* is the name of the configuration datastore to lock
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2b75f2c6a06bd2a5d1be67b01bb65c5ffd2e2d7a
https://github.com/ncclient/ncclient/blob/2b75f2c6a06bd2a5d1be67b01bb65c5ffd2e2d7a/ncclient/operations/lock.py#L28-L35
236,303
ncclient/ncclient
ncclient/transport/ssh.py
SSHSession._parse10
def _parse10(self): """Messages are delimited by MSG_DELIM. The buffer could have grown by a maximum of BUF_SIZE bytes everytime this method is called. Retains state across method calls and if a chunk has been read it will not be considered again.""" self.logger.debug("parsing netconf v1.0") buf = self._buffer buf.seek(self._parsing_pos10) if MSG_DELIM in buf.read().decode('UTF-8'): buf.seek(0) msg, _, remaining = buf.read().decode('UTF-8').partition(MSG_DELIM) msg = msg.strip() if sys.version < '3': self._dispatch_message(msg.encode()) else: self._dispatch_message(msg) # create new buffer which contains remaining of old buffer self._buffer = StringIO() self._buffer.write(remaining.encode()) self._parsing_pos10 = 0 if len(remaining) > 0: # There could be another entire message in the # buffer, so we should try to parse again. self.logger.debug('Trying another round of parsing since there is still data') self._parse10() else: # handle case that MSG_DELIM is split over two chunks self._parsing_pos10 = buf.tell() - MSG_DELIM_LEN if self._parsing_pos10 < 0: self._parsing_pos10 = 0
python
def _parse10(self): self.logger.debug("parsing netconf v1.0") buf = self._buffer buf.seek(self._parsing_pos10) if MSG_DELIM in buf.read().decode('UTF-8'): buf.seek(0) msg, _, remaining = buf.read().decode('UTF-8').partition(MSG_DELIM) msg = msg.strip() if sys.version < '3': self._dispatch_message(msg.encode()) else: self._dispatch_message(msg) # create new buffer which contains remaining of old buffer self._buffer = StringIO() self._buffer.write(remaining.encode()) self._parsing_pos10 = 0 if len(remaining) > 0: # There could be another entire message in the # buffer, so we should try to parse again. self.logger.debug('Trying another round of parsing since there is still data') self._parse10() else: # handle case that MSG_DELIM is split over two chunks self._parsing_pos10 = buf.tell() - MSG_DELIM_LEN if self._parsing_pos10 < 0: self._parsing_pos10 = 0
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Messages are delimited by MSG_DELIM. The buffer could have grown by a maximum of BUF_SIZE bytes everytime this method is called. Retains state across method calls and if a chunk has been read it will not be considered again.
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2b75f2c6a06bd2a5d1be67b01bb65c5ffd2e2d7a
https://github.com/ncclient/ncclient/blob/2b75f2c6a06bd2a5d1be67b01bb65c5ffd2e2d7a/ncclient/transport/ssh.py#L139-L170
236,304
ncclient/ncclient
ncclient/operations/util.py
one_of
def one_of(*args): "Verifies that only one of the arguments is not None" for i, arg in enumerate(args): if arg is not None: for argh in args[i+1:]: if argh is not None: raise OperationError("Too many parameters") else: return raise OperationError("Insufficient parameters")
python
def one_of(*args): "Verifies that only one of the arguments is not None" for i, arg in enumerate(args): if arg is not None: for argh in args[i+1:]: if argh is not None: raise OperationError("Too many parameters") else: return raise OperationError("Insufficient parameters")
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Verifies that only one of the arguments is not None
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2b75f2c6a06bd2a5d1be67b01bb65c5ffd2e2d7a
https://github.com/ncclient/ncclient/blob/2b75f2c6a06bd2a5d1be67b01bb65c5ffd2e2d7a/ncclient/operations/util.py#L21-L30
236,305
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/arma/arimax.py
ARIMAX._get_scale_and_shape
def _get_scale_and_shape(self, transformed_lvs): """ Obtains model scale, shape and skewness latent variables Parameters ---------- transformed_lvs : np.array Transformed latent variable vector Returns ---------- - Tuple of model scale, model shape, model skewness """ if self.scale is True: if self.shape is True: model_shape = transformed_lvs[-1] model_scale = transformed_lvs[-2] else: model_shape = 0 model_scale = transformed_lvs[-1] else: model_scale = 0 model_shape = 0 if self.skewness is True: model_skewness = transformed_lvs[-3] else: model_skewness = 0 return model_scale, model_shape, model_skewness
python
def _get_scale_and_shape(self, transformed_lvs): if self.scale is True: if self.shape is True: model_shape = transformed_lvs[-1] model_scale = transformed_lvs[-2] else: model_shape = 0 model_scale = transformed_lvs[-1] else: model_scale = 0 model_shape = 0 if self.skewness is True: model_skewness = transformed_lvs[-3] else: model_skewness = 0 return model_scale, model_shape, model_skewness
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Obtains model scale, shape and skewness latent variables Parameters ---------- transformed_lvs : np.array Transformed latent variable vector Returns ---------- - Tuple of model scale, model shape, model skewness
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/arma/arimax.py#L152-L181
236,306
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/arma/arimax.py
ARIMAX._get_scale_and_shape_sim
def _get_scale_and_shape_sim(self, transformed_lvs): """ Obtains model scale, shape, skewness latent variables for a 2d array of simulations. Parameters ---------- transformed_lvs : np.array Transformed latent variable vector (2d - with draws of each variable) Returns ---------- - Tuple of np.arrays (each being scale, shape and skewness draws) """ if self.scale is True: if self.shape is True: model_shape = self.latent_variables.z_list[-1].prior.transform(transformed_lvs[-1, :]) model_scale = self.latent_variables.z_list[-2].prior.transform(transformed_lvs[-2, :]) else: model_shape = np.zeros(transformed_lvs.shape[1]) model_scale = self.latent_variables.z_list[-1].prior.transform(transformed_lvs[-1, :]) else: model_scale = np.zeros(transformed_lvs.shape[1]) model_shape = np.zeros(transformed_lvs.shape[1]) if self.skewness is True: model_skewness = self.latent_variables.z_list[-3].prior.transform(transformed_lvs[-3, :]) else: model_skewness = np.zeros(transformed_lvs.shape[1]) return model_scale, model_shape, model_skewness
python
def _get_scale_and_shape_sim(self, transformed_lvs): if self.scale is True: if self.shape is True: model_shape = self.latent_variables.z_list[-1].prior.transform(transformed_lvs[-1, :]) model_scale = self.latent_variables.z_list[-2].prior.transform(transformed_lvs[-2, :]) else: model_shape = np.zeros(transformed_lvs.shape[1]) model_scale = self.latent_variables.z_list[-1].prior.transform(transformed_lvs[-1, :]) else: model_scale = np.zeros(transformed_lvs.shape[1]) model_shape = np.zeros(transformed_lvs.shape[1]) if self.skewness is True: model_skewness = self.latent_variables.z_list[-3].prior.transform(transformed_lvs[-3, :]) else: model_skewness = np.zeros(transformed_lvs.shape[1]) return model_scale, model_shape, model_skewness
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Obtains model scale, shape, skewness latent variables for a 2d array of simulations. Parameters ---------- transformed_lvs : np.array Transformed latent variable vector (2d - with draws of each variable) Returns ---------- - Tuple of np.arrays (each being scale, shape and skewness draws)
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/arma/arimax.py#L183-L213
236,307
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/arma/arimax.py
ARIMAX._summarize_simulations
def _summarize_simulations(self, mean_values, sim_vector, date_index, h, past_values): """ Produces forecasted values to plot, along with prediction intervals This is a utility function that constructs the prediction intervals and other quantities used for plot_predict() in particular. Parameters ---------- mean_values : np.ndarray Mean predictions for h-step ahead forecasts sim_vector : np.ndarray N simulation predictions for h-step ahead forecasts date_index : pd.DateIndex or np.ndarray Dates for the simulations h : int How many steps ahead are forecast past_values : int How many past observations to include in the forecast plot """ error_bars = [] for pre in range(5,100,5): error_bars.append(np.insert([np.percentile(i,pre) for i in sim_vector], 0, mean_values[-h-1])) if self.latent_variables.estimation_method in ['M-H']: forecasted_values = np.insert([np.mean(i) for i in sim_vector], 0, mean_values[-h-1]) else: forecasted_values = mean_values[-h-1:] plot_values = mean_values[-h-past_values:] plot_index = date_index[-h-past_values:] return error_bars, forecasted_values, plot_values, plot_index
python
def _summarize_simulations(self, mean_values, sim_vector, date_index, h, past_values): error_bars = [] for pre in range(5,100,5): error_bars.append(np.insert([np.percentile(i,pre) for i in sim_vector], 0, mean_values[-h-1])) if self.latent_variables.estimation_method in ['M-H']: forecasted_values = np.insert([np.mean(i) for i in sim_vector], 0, mean_values[-h-1]) else: forecasted_values = mean_values[-h-1:] plot_values = mean_values[-h-past_values:] plot_index = date_index[-h-past_values:] return error_bars, forecasted_values, plot_values, plot_index
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Produces forecasted values to plot, along with prediction intervals This is a utility function that constructs the prediction intervals and other quantities used for plot_predict() in particular. Parameters ---------- mean_values : np.ndarray Mean predictions for h-step ahead forecasts sim_vector : np.ndarray N simulation predictions for h-step ahead forecasts date_index : pd.DateIndex or np.ndarray Dates for the simulations h : int How many steps ahead are forecast past_values : int How many past observations to include in the forecast plot
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/arma/arimax.py#L606-L639
236,308
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/arma/arimax.py
ARIMAX.normal_neg_loglik
def normal_neg_loglik(self, beta): """ Calculates the negative log-likelihood of the model for Normal family Parameters ---------- beta : np.ndarray Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables Returns ---------- The negative logliklihood of the model """ mu, Y = self._model(beta) return -np.sum(ss.norm.logpdf(Y, loc=mu, scale=self.latent_variables.z_list[-1].prior.transform(beta[-1])))
python
def normal_neg_loglik(self, beta): mu, Y = self._model(beta) return -np.sum(ss.norm.logpdf(Y, loc=mu, scale=self.latent_variables.z_list[-1].prior.transform(beta[-1])))
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Calculates the negative log-likelihood of the model for Normal family Parameters ---------- beta : np.ndarray Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables Returns ---------- The negative logliklihood of the model
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/arma/arimax.py#L641-L654
236,309
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/arma/arimax.py
ARIMAX.normal_mb_neg_loglik
def normal_mb_neg_loglik(self, beta, mini_batch): """ Calculates the negative log-likelihood of the Normal model for a minibatch Parameters ---------- beta : np.ndarray Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables mini_batch : int Size of each mini batch of data Returns ---------- The negative logliklihood of the model """ mu, Y = self._mb_model(beta, mini_batch) return -np.sum(ss.norm.logpdf(Y, loc=mu, scale=self.latent_variables.z_list[-1].prior.transform(beta[-1])))
python
def normal_mb_neg_loglik(self, beta, mini_batch): mu, Y = self._mb_model(beta, mini_batch) return -np.sum(ss.norm.logpdf(Y, loc=mu, scale=self.latent_variables.z_list[-1].prior.transform(beta[-1])))
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Calculates the negative log-likelihood of the Normal model for a minibatch Parameters ---------- beta : np.ndarray Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables mini_batch : int Size of each mini batch of data Returns ---------- The negative logliklihood of the model
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/arma/arimax.py#L656-L673
236,310
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/skewt.py
Skewt.draw_variable
def draw_variable(loc, scale, shape, skewness, nsims): """ Draws random variables from Skew t distribution Parameters ---------- loc : float location parameter for the distribution scale : float scale parameter for the distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the distribution nsims : int or list number of draws to take from the distribution Returns ---------- - Random draws from the distribution """ return loc + scale*Skewt.rvs(shape, skewness, nsims)
python
def draw_variable(loc, scale, shape, skewness, nsims): return loc + scale*Skewt.rvs(shape, skewness, nsims)
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Draws random variables from Skew t distribution Parameters ---------- loc : float location parameter for the distribution scale : float scale parameter for the distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the distribution nsims : int or list number of draws to take from the distribution Returns ---------- - Random draws from the distribution
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/skewt.py#L138-L162
236,311
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/skewt.py
Skewt.first_order_score
def first_order_score(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): """ GAS Skew t Update term using gradient only - native Python function Parameters ---------- y : float datapoint for the time series mean : float location parameter for the Skew t distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Skew t distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Skew t distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Skew t distribution Returns ---------- - Score of the Skew t family """ m1 = (np.sqrt(shape)*sp.gamma((shape-1.0)/2.0))/(np.sqrt(np.pi)*sp.gamma(shape/2.0)) mean = mean + (skewness - (1.0/skewness))*scale*m1 if (y-mean)>=0: return ((shape+1)/shape)*(y-mean)/(np.power(skewness*scale,2) + (np.power(y-mean,2)/shape)) else: return ((shape+1)/shape)*(y-mean)/(np.power(scale,2) + (np.power(skewness*(y-mean),2)/shape))
python
def first_order_score(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): m1 = (np.sqrt(shape)*sp.gamma((shape-1.0)/2.0))/(np.sqrt(np.pi)*sp.gamma(shape/2.0)) mean = mean + (skewness - (1.0/skewness))*scale*m1 if (y-mean)>=0: return ((shape+1)/shape)*(y-mean)/(np.power(skewness*scale,2) + (np.power(y-mean,2)/shape)) else: return ((shape+1)/shape)*(y-mean)/(np.power(scale,2) + (np.power(skewness*(y-mean),2)/shape))
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GAS Skew t Update term using gradient only - native Python function Parameters ---------- y : float datapoint for the time series mean : float location parameter for the Skew t distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Skew t distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Skew t distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Skew t distribution Returns ---------- - Score of the Skew t family
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/skewt.py#L165-L194
236,312
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/skewt.py
Skewt.rvs
def rvs(df, gamma, n): """ Generates random variables from a Skew t distribution Parameters ---------- df : float degrees of freedom parameter gamma : float skewness parameter n : int or list Number of simulations to perform; if list input, produces array """ if type(n) == list: u = np.random.uniform(size=n[0]*n[1]) result = Skewt.ppf(q=u, df=df, gamma=gamma) result = np.split(result,n[0]) return np.array(result) else: u = np.random.uniform(size=n) if isinstance(df, np.ndarray) or isinstance(gamma, np.ndarray): return np.array([Skewt.ppf(q=np.array([u[i]]), df=df[i], gamma=gamma[i])[0] for i in range(n)]) else: return Skewt.ppf(q=u, df=df, gamma=gamma)
python
def rvs(df, gamma, n): if type(n) == list: u = np.random.uniform(size=n[0]*n[1]) result = Skewt.ppf(q=u, df=df, gamma=gamma) result = np.split(result,n[0]) return np.array(result) else: u = np.random.uniform(size=n) if isinstance(df, np.ndarray) or isinstance(gamma, np.ndarray): return np.array([Skewt.ppf(q=np.array([u[i]]), df=df[i], gamma=gamma[i])[0] for i in range(n)]) else: return Skewt.ppf(q=u, df=df, gamma=gamma)
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Generates random variables from a Skew t distribution Parameters ---------- df : float degrees of freedom parameter gamma : float skewness parameter n : int or list Number of simulations to perform; if list input, produces array
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/skewt.py#L197-L223
236,313
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/skewt.py
Skewt.logpdf
def logpdf(self, mu): """ Log PDF for Skew t prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(mu)) """ if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return self.logpdf_internal_prior(mu, df=self.df0, loc=self.loc0, scale=self.scale0, gamma=self.gamma0)
python
def logpdf(self, mu): if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return self.logpdf_internal_prior(mu, df=self.df0, loc=self.loc0, scale=self.scale0, gamma=self.gamma0)
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Log PDF for Skew t prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(mu))
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/skewt.py#L239-L254
236,314
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/skewt.py
Skewt.markov_blanket
def markov_blanket(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): """ Markov blanket for each likelihood term Parameters ---------- y : np.ndarray univariate time series mean : np.ndarray array of location parameters for the Skew t distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Skew t distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Skew t distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Skew t distribution Returns ---------- - Markov blanket of the Skew t family """ m1 = (np.sqrt(shape)*sp.gamma((shape-1.0)/2.0))/(np.sqrt(np.pi)*sp.gamma(shape/2.0)) mean = mean + (skewness - (1.0/skewness))*scale*m1 return Skewt.logpdf_internal(x=y, df=shape, loc=mean, gamma=skewness, scale=scale)
python
def markov_blanket(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): m1 = (np.sqrt(shape)*sp.gamma((shape-1.0)/2.0))/(np.sqrt(np.pi)*sp.gamma(shape/2.0)) mean = mean + (skewness - (1.0/skewness))*scale*m1 return Skewt.logpdf_internal(x=y, df=shape, loc=mean, gamma=skewness, scale=scale)
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Markov blanket for each likelihood term Parameters ---------- y : np.ndarray univariate time series mean : np.ndarray array of location parameters for the Skew t distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Skew t distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Skew t distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Skew t distribution Returns ---------- - Markov blanket of the Skew t family
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/skewt.py#L257-L283
236,315
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/skewt.py
Skewt.pdf_internal
def pdf_internal(x, df, loc=0.0, scale=1.0, gamma = 1.0): """ Raw PDF function for the Skew t distribution """ result = np.zeros(x.shape[0]) result[x<0] = 2.0/(gamma + 1.0/gamma)*stats.t.pdf(x=gamma*x[(x-loc) < 0], loc=loc[(x-loc) < 0]*gamma,df=df, scale=scale) result[x>=0] = 2.0/(gamma + 1.0/gamma)*stats.t.pdf(x=x[(x-loc) >= 0]/gamma, loc=loc[(x-loc) >= 0]/gamma,df=df, scale=scale) return result
python
def pdf_internal(x, df, loc=0.0, scale=1.0, gamma = 1.0): result = np.zeros(x.shape[0]) result[x<0] = 2.0/(gamma + 1.0/gamma)*stats.t.pdf(x=gamma*x[(x-loc) < 0], loc=loc[(x-loc) < 0]*gamma,df=df, scale=scale) result[x>=0] = 2.0/(gamma + 1.0/gamma)*stats.t.pdf(x=x[(x-loc) >= 0]/gamma, loc=loc[(x-loc) >= 0]/gamma,df=df, scale=scale) return result
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Raw PDF function for the Skew t distribution
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/skewt.py#L340-L347
236,316
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/skewt.py
Skewt.pdf
def pdf(self, mu): """ PDF for Skew t prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - p(mu) """ if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return self.pdf_internal(mu, df=self.df0, loc=self.loc0, scale=self.scale0, gamma=self.gamma0)
python
def pdf(self, mu): if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return self.pdf_internal(mu, df=self.df0, loc=self.loc0, scale=self.scale0, gamma=self.gamma0)
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PDF for Skew t prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - p(mu)
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/skewt.py#L349-L364
236,317
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/skewt.py
Skewt.cdf
def cdf(x, df, loc=0.0, scale=1.0, gamma = 1.0): """ CDF function for Skew t distribution """ result = np.zeros(x.shape[0]) result[x<0] = 2.0/(np.power(gamma,2) + 1.0)*ss.t.cdf(gamma*(x[x-loc < 0]-loc[x-loc < 0])/scale, df=df) result[x>=0] = 1.0/(np.power(gamma,2) + 1.0) + 2.0/((1.0/np.power(gamma,2)) + 1.0)*(ss.t.cdf((x[x-loc >= 0]-loc[x-loc >= 0])/(gamma*scale), df=df)-0.5) return result
python
def cdf(x, df, loc=0.0, scale=1.0, gamma = 1.0): result = np.zeros(x.shape[0]) result[x<0] = 2.0/(np.power(gamma,2) + 1.0)*ss.t.cdf(gamma*(x[x-loc < 0]-loc[x-loc < 0])/scale, df=df) result[x>=0] = 1.0/(np.power(gamma,2) + 1.0) + 2.0/((1.0/np.power(gamma,2)) + 1.0)*(ss.t.cdf((x[x-loc >= 0]-loc[x-loc >= 0])/(gamma*scale), df=df)-0.5) return result
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CDF function for Skew t distribution
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/skewt.py#L434-L441
236,318
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/skewt.py
Skewt.ppf
def ppf(q, df, loc=0.0, scale=1.0, gamma = 1.0): """ PPF function for Skew t distribution """ result = np.zeros(q.shape[0]) probzero = Skewt.cdf(x=np.zeros(1),loc=np.zeros(1),df=df,gamma=gamma) result[q<probzero] = 1.0/gamma*ss.t.ppf(((np.power(gamma,2) + 1.0) * q[q<probzero])/2.0,df) result[q>=probzero] = gamma*ss.t.ppf((1.0 + 1.0/np.power(gamma,2))/2.0*(q[q >= probzero] - probzero) + 0.5, df) return result
python
def ppf(q, df, loc=0.0, scale=1.0, gamma = 1.0): result = np.zeros(q.shape[0]) probzero = Skewt.cdf(x=np.zeros(1),loc=np.zeros(1),df=df,gamma=gamma) result[q<probzero] = 1.0/gamma*ss.t.ppf(((np.power(gamma,2) + 1.0) * q[q<probzero])/2.0,df) result[q>=probzero] = gamma*ss.t.ppf((1.0 + 1.0/np.power(gamma,2))/2.0*(q[q >= probzero] - probzero) + 0.5, df) return result
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PPF function for Skew t distribution
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/skewt.py#L444-L452
236,319
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/family.py
Family.transform_define
def transform_define(transform): """ This function links the user's choice of transformation with the associated numpy function """ if transform == 'tanh': return np.tanh elif transform == 'exp': return np.exp elif transform == 'logit': return Family.ilogit elif transform is None: return np.array else: return None
python
def transform_define(transform): if transform == 'tanh': return np.tanh elif transform == 'exp': return np.exp elif transform == 'logit': return Family.ilogit elif transform is None: return np.array else: return None
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This function links the user's choice of transformation with the associated numpy function
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/family.py#L26-L39
236,320
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/family.py
Family.itransform_define
def itransform_define(transform): """ This function links the user's choice of transformation with its inverse """ if transform == 'tanh': return np.arctanh elif transform == 'exp': return np.log elif transform == 'logit': return Family.logit elif transform is None: return np.array else: return None
python
def itransform_define(transform): if transform == 'tanh': return np.arctanh elif transform == 'exp': return np.log elif transform == 'logit': return Family.logit elif transform is None: return np.array else: return None
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This function links the user's choice of transformation with its inverse
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/family.py#L42-L55
236,321
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/gpnarx/gpnarx.py
GPNARX._L
def _L(self, parm): """ Creates cholesky decomposition of covariance matrix Parameters ---------- parm : np.array Contains transformed latent variables Returns ---------- The cholesky decomposition (L) of K """ return np.linalg.cholesky(self.kernel.K(parm) + np.identity(self.X().shape[1])*parm[0])
python
def _L(self, parm): return np.linalg.cholesky(self.kernel.K(parm) + np.identity(self.X().shape[1])*parm[0])
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Creates cholesky decomposition of covariance matrix Parameters ---------- parm : np.array Contains transformed latent variables Returns ---------- The cholesky decomposition (L) of K
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/gpnarx/gpnarx.py#L176-L189
236,322
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/gpnarx/gpnarx.py
GPNARX.plot_fit
def plot_fit(self, intervals=True, **kwargs): """ Plots the fit of the Gaussian process model to the data Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables intervals : Boolean Whether to plot uncertainty intervals or not Returns ---------- None (plots the fit of the function) """ import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import seaborn as sns figsize = kwargs.get('figsize',(10,7)) date_index = self.index[self.max_lag:] expectation = self.expected_values(self.latent_variables.get_z_values()) variance = self.variance_values(self.latent_variables.get_z_values()) upper = expectation + 1.98*np.power(np.diag(variance),0.5) lower = expectation - 1.98*np.power(np.diag(variance),0.5) plt.figure(figsize=figsize) plt.subplot(2, 2, 1) plt.title(self.data_name + " Raw") plt.plot(date_index,self.data*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean,'k') plt.subplot(2, 2, 2) plt.title(self.data_name + " Raw and Expected") plt.plot(date_index,self.data*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean,'k',alpha=0.2) plt.plot(date_index,self.expected_values(self.latent_variables.get_z_values())*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean,'b') plt.subplot(2, 2, 3) plt.title(self.data_name + " Raw and Expected (with intervals)") if intervals == True: plt.fill_between(date_index, lower*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean, upper*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean, alpha=0.2) plt.plot(date_index,self.data*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean,'k',alpha=0.2) plt.plot(date_index,self.expected_values(self.latent_variables.get_z_values())*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean,'b') plt.subplot(2, 2, 4) plt.title("Expected " + self.data_name + " (with intervals)") if intervals == True: plt.fill_between(date_index, lower*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean, upper*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean, alpha=0.2) plt.plot(date_index,self.expected_values(self.latent_variables.get_z_values())*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean,'b') plt.show()
python
def plot_fit(self, intervals=True, **kwargs): import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import seaborn as sns figsize = kwargs.get('figsize',(10,7)) date_index = self.index[self.max_lag:] expectation = self.expected_values(self.latent_variables.get_z_values()) variance = self.variance_values(self.latent_variables.get_z_values()) upper = expectation + 1.98*np.power(np.diag(variance),0.5) lower = expectation - 1.98*np.power(np.diag(variance),0.5) plt.figure(figsize=figsize) plt.subplot(2, 2, 1) plt.title(self.data_name + " Raw") plt.plot(date_index,self.data*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean,'k') plt.subplot(2, 2, 2) plt.title(self.data_name + " Raw and Expected") plt.plot(date_index,self.data*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean,'k',alpha=0.2) plt.plot(date_index,self.expected_values(self.latent_variables.get_z_values())*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean,'b') plt.subplot(2, 2, 3) plt.title(self.data_name + " Raw and Expected (with intervals)") if intervals == True: plt.fill_between(date_index, lower*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean, upper*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean, alpha=0.2) plt.plot(date_index,self.data*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean,'k',alpha=0.2) plt.plot(date_index,self.expected_values(self.latent_variables.get_z_values())*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean,'b') plt.subplot(2, 2, 4) plt.title("Expected " + self.data_name + " (with intervals)") if intervals == True: plt.fill_between(date_index, lower*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean, upper*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean, alpha=0.2) plt.plot(date_index,self.expected_values(self.latent_variables.get_z_values())*self._norm_std + self._norm_mean,'b') plt.show()
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Plots the fit of the Gaussian process model to the data Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables intervals : Boolean Whether to plot uncertainty intervals or not Returns ---------- None (plots the fit of the function)
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/gpnarx/gpnarx.py#L260-L315
236,323
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/gas/gas.py
GAS._get_scale_and_shape
def _get_scale_and_shape(self,parm): """ Obtains appropriate model scale and shape latent variables Parameters ---------- parm : np.array Transformed latent variable vector Returns ---------- None (changes model attributes) """ if self.scale is True: if self.shape is True: model_shape = parm[-1] model_scale = parm[-2] else: model_shape = 0 model_scale = parm[-1] else: model_scale = 0 model_shape = 0 if self.skewness is True: model_skewness = parm[-3] else: model_skewness = 0 return model_scale, model_shape, model_skewness
python
def _get_scale_and_shape(self,parm): if self.scale is True: if self.shape is True: model_shape = parm[-1] model_scale = parm[-2] else: model_shape = 0 model_scale = parm[-1] else: model_scale = 0 model_shape = 0 if self.skewness is True: model_skewness = parm[-3] else: model_skewness = 0 return model_scale, model_shape, model_skewness
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Obtains appropriate model scale and shape latent variables Parameters ---------- parm : np.array Transformed latent variable vector Returns ---------- None (changes model attributes)
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/gas/gas.py#L127-L156
236,324
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/gas/gas.py
GAS.plot_sample
def plot_sample(self, nsims=10, plot_data=True, **kwargs): """ Plots draws from the posterior predictive density against the data Parameters ---------- nsims : int (default : 1000) How many draws from the posterior predictive distribution plot_data boolean Whether to plot the data or not """ if self.latent_variables.estimation_method not in ['BBVI', 'M-H']: raise Exception("No latent variables estimated!") else: import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import seaborn as sns figsize = kwargs.get('figsize',(10,7)) plt.figure(figsize=figsize) date_index = self.index[max(self.ar, self.sc):self.data_length] mu, Y, scores = self._model(self.latent_variables.get_z_values()) draws = self.sample(nsims).T plt.plot(date_index, draws, label='Posterior Draws', alpha=1.0) if plot_data is True: plt.plot(date_index, Y, label='Data', c='black', alpha=0.5, linestyle='', marker='s') plt.title(self.data_name) plt.show()
python
def plot_sample(self, nsims=10, plot_data=True, **kwargs): if self.latent_variables.estimation_method not in ['BBVI', 'M-H']: raise Exception("No latent variables estimated!") else: import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import seaborn as sns figsize = kwargs.get('figsize',(10,7)) plt.figure(figsize=figsize) date_index = self.index[max(self.ar, self.sc):self.data_length] mu, Y, scores = self._model(self.latent_variables.get_z_values()) draws = self.sample(nsims).T plt.plot(date_index, draws, label='Posterior Draws', alpha=1.0) if plot_data is True: plt.plot(date_index, Y, label='Data', c='black', alpha=0.5, linestyle='', marker='s') plt.title(self.data_name) plt.show()
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Plots draws from the posterior predictive density against the data Parameters ---------- nsims : int (default : 1000) How many draws from the posterior predictive distribution plot_data boolean Whether to plot the data or not
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/gas/gas.py#L939-L967
236,325
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/arma/arma.py
ARIMA._ar_matrix
def _ar_matrix(self): """ Creates the Autoregressive matrix for the model Returns ---------- X : np.ndarray Autoregressive Matrix """ X = np.ones(self.data_length-self.max_lag) if self.ar != 0: for i in range(0, self.ar): X = np.vstack((X,self.data[(self.max_lag-i-1):-i-1])) return X
python
def _ar_matrix(self): X = np.ones(self.data_length-self.max_lag) if self.ar != 0: for i in range(0, self.ar): X = np.vstack((X,self.data[(self.max_lag-i-1):-i-1])) return X
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Creates the Autoregressive matrix for the model Returns ---------- X : np.ndarray Autoregressive Matrix
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/arma/arma.py#L109-L124
236,326
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/inverse_wishart.py
InverseWishart.logpdf
def logpdf(self, X): """ Log PDF for Inverse Wishart prior Parameters ---------- X : float Covariance matrix for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(X)) """ return invwishart.logpdf(X, df=self.v, scale=self.Psi)
python
def logpdf(self, X): return invwishart.logpdf(X, df=self.v, scale=self.Psi)
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Log PDF for Inverse Wishart prior Parameters ---------- X : float Covariance matrix for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(X))
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/inverse_wishart.py#L38-L51
236,327
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/inverse_wishart.py
InverseWishart.pdf
def pdf(self, X): """ PDF for Inverse Wishart prior Parameters ---------- x : float Covariance matrix for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - p(x) """ return invwishart.pdf(X, df=self.v, scale=self.Psi)
python
def pdf(self, X): return invwishart.pdf(X, df=self.v, scale=self.Psi)
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PDF for Inverse Wishart prior Parameters ---------- x : float Covariance matrix for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - p(x)
[ "PDF", "for", "Inverse", "Wishart", "prior" ]
297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/inverse_wishart.py#L53-L66
236,328
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/ssm/nllt.py
NLLT.neg_loglik
def neg_loglik(self, beta): """ Creates negative loglikelihood of the model Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables Returns ---------- - Negative loglikelihood """ Z = np.zeros(2) Z[0] = 1 states = np.zeros([self.state_no, self.data.shape[0]]) states[0,:] = beta[self.z_no:self.z_no+self.data.shape[0]] states[1,:] = beta[self.z_no+self.data.shape[0]:] parm = np.array([self.latent_variables.z_list[k].prior.transform(beta[k]) for k in range(self.z_no)]) # transformed distribution parameters scale, shape, skewness = self._get_scale_and_shape(parm) return self.state_likelihood(beta, states) + self.family.neg_loglikelihood(self.data, self.link(np.dot(Z, states)), scale, shape, skewness)
python
def neg_loglik(self, beta): Z = np.zeros(2) Z[0] = 1 states = np.zeros([self.state_no, self.data.shape[0]]) states[0,:] = beta[self.z_no:self.z_no+self.data.shape[0]] states[1,:] = beta[self.z_no+self.data.shape[0]:] parm = np.array([self.latent_variables.z_list[k].prior.transform(beta[k]) for k in range(self.z_no)]) # transformed distribution parameters scale, shape, skewness = self._get_scale_and_shape(parm) return self.state_likelihood(beta, states) + self.family.neg_loglikelihood(self.data, self.link(np.dot(Z, states)), scale, shape, skewness)
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Creates negative loglikelihood of the model Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables Returns ---------- - Negative loglikelihood
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/ssm/nllt.py#L117-L136
236,329
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/ssm/nllt.py
NLLT.state_likelihood_markov_blanket
def state_likelihood_markov_blanket(self, beta, alpha, col_no): """ Returns Markov blanket of the states given the variance latent variables Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables alpha : np.array State matrix Returns ---------- State likelihood """ _, _, _, Q = self._ss_matrices(beta) blanket = np.append(0,ss.norm.logpdf(alpha[col_no][1:]-alpha[col_no][:-1],loc=0,scale=np.sqrt(Q[col_no][col_no]))) blanket[:-1] = blanket[:-1] + blanket[1:] return blanket
python
def state_likelihood_markov_blanket(self, beta, alpha, col_no): _, _, _, Q = self._ss_matrices(beta) blanket = np.append(0,ss.norm.logpdf(alpha[col_no][1:]-alpha[col_no][:-1],loc=0,scale=np.sqrt(Q[col_no][col_no]))) blanket[:-1] = blanket[:-1] + blanket[1:] return blanket
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Returns Markov blanket of the states given the variance latent variables Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables alpha : np.array State matrix Returns ---------- State likelihood
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/ssm/nllt.py#L181-L199
236,330
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/ssm/nllt.py
NLLT.markov_blanket
def markov_blanket(self, beta, alpha): """ Creates total Markov blanket for states Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables alpha : np.array A vector of states Returns ---------- Markov blanket for states """ likelihood_blanket = self.likelihood_markov_blanket(beta) state_blanket = self.state_likelihood_markov_blanket(beta,alpha,0) for i in range(self.state_no-1): likelihood_blanket = np.append(likelihood_blanket,self.likelihood_markov_blanket(beta)) state_blanket = np.append(state_blanket,self.state_likelihood_markov_blanket(beta,alpha,i+1)) return likelihood_blanket + state_blanket
python
def markov_blanket(self, beta, alpha): likelihood_blanket = self.likelihood_markov_blanket(beta) state_blanket = self.state_likelihood_markov_blanket(beta,alpha,0) for i in range(self.state_no-1): likelihood_blanket = np.append(likelihood_blanket,self.likelihood_markov_blanket(beta)) state_blanket = np.append(state_blanket,self.state_likelihood_markov_blanket(beta,alpha,i+1)) return likelihood_blanket + state_blanket
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Creates total Markov blanket for states Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables alpha : np.array A vector of states Returns ---------- Markov blanket for states
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/ssm/nllt.py#L221-L241
236,331
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/ssm/nllt.py
NLLT._general_approximating_model
def _general_approximating_model(self, beta, T, Z, R, Q, h_approx): """ Creates simplest kind of approximating Gaussian model Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables T, Z, R, Q : np.array State space matrices used in KFS algorithm h_approx : float Value to use for the H matrix Returns ---------- H : np.array Approximating measurement variance matrix mu : np.array Approximating measurement constants """ H = np.ones(self.data_length)*h_approx mu = np.zeros(self.data_length) return H, mu
python
def _general_approximating_model(self, beta, T, Z, R, Q, h_approx): H = np.ones(self.data_length)*h_approx mu = np.zeros(self.data_length) return H, mu
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Creates simplest kind of approximating Gaussian model Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables T, Z, R, Q : np.array State space matrices used in KFS algorithm h_approx : float Value to use for the H matrix Returns ---------- H : np.array Approximating measurement variance matrix mu : np.array Approximating measurement constants
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/ssm/nllt.py#L403-L430
236,332
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/ssm/nllt.py
NLLT.fit
def fit(self, optimizer='RMSProp', iterations=1000, print_progress=True, start_diffuse=False, **kwargs): """ Fits the model Parameters ---------- optimizer : string Stochastic optimizer: either RMSProp or ADAM. iterations: int How many iterations to run print_progress : bool Whether tp print the ELBO progress or not start_diffuse : bool Whether to start from diffuse values (if not: use approx Gaussian) Returns ---------- BBVI fit object """ return self._bbvi_fit(optimizer=optimizer, print_progress=print_progress, start_diffuse=start_diffuse, iterations=iterations, **kwargs)
python
def fit(self, optimizer='RMSProp', iterations=1000, print_progress=True, start_diffuse=False, **kwargs): return self._bbvi_fit(optimizer=optimizer, print_progress=print_progress, start_diffuse=start_diffuse, iterations=iterations, **kwargs)
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Fits the model Parameters ---------- optimizer : string Stochastic optimizer: either RMSProp or ADAM. iterations: int How many iterations to run print_progress : bool Whether tp print the ELBO progress or not start_diffuse : bool Whether to start from diffuse values (if not: use approx Gaussian) Returns ---------- BBVI fit object
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/ssm/nllt.py#L432-L455
236,333
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/var/var.py
create_design_matrix_2
def create_design_matrix_2(Z, data, Y_len, lag_no): """ For Python 2.7 - cythonized version only works for 3.5 """ row_count = 1 for lag in range(1, lag_no+1): for reg in range(Y_len): Z[row_count, :] = data[reg][(lag_no-lag):-lag] row_count += 1 return Z
python
def create_design_matrix_2(Z, data, Y_len, lag_no): row_count = 1 for lag in range(1, lag_no+1): for reg in range(Y_len): Z[row_count, :] = data[reg][(lag_no-lag):-lag] row_count += 1 return Z
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For Python 2.7 - cythonized version only works for 3.5
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/var/var.py#L18-L29
236,334
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/var/var.py
VAR._create_B
def _create_B(self,Y): """ Creates OLS coefficient matrix Parameters ---------- Y : np.array The dependent variables Y Returns ---------- The coefficient matrix B """ Z = self._create_Z(Y) return np.dot(np.dot(Y,np.transpose(Z)),np.linalg.inv(np.dot(Z,np.transpose(Z))))
python
def _create_B(self,Y): Z = self._create_Z(Y) return np.dot(np.dot(Y,np.transpose(Z)),np.linalg.inv(np.dot(Z,np.transpose(Z))))
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Creates OLS coefficient matrix Parameters ---------- Y : np.array The dependent variables Y Returns ---------- The coefficient matrix B
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/var/var.py#L97-L111
236,335
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/var/var.py
VAR._create_Z
def _create_Z(self,Y): """ Creates design matrix holding the lagged variables Parameters ---------- Y : np.array The dependent variables Y Returns ---------- The design matrix Z """ Z = np.ones(((self.ylen*self.lags +1),Y[0].shape[0])) return self.create_design_matrix(Z, self.data, Y.shape[0], self.lags)
python
def _create_Z(self,Y): Z = np.ones(((self.ylen*self.lags +1),Y[0].shape[0])) return self.create_design_matrix(Z, self.data, Y.shape[0], self.lags)
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Creates design matrix holding the lagged variables Parameters ---------- Y : np.array The dependent variables Y Returns ---------- The design matrix Z
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/var/var.py#L163-L177
236,336
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/var/var.py
VAR._forecast_mean
def _forecast_mean(self,h,t_params,Y,shock_type=None,shock_index=0,shock_value=None,shock_dir='positive',irf_intervals=False): """ Function allows for mean prediction; also allows shock specification for simulations or impulse response effects Parameters ---------- h : int How many steps ahead to forecast t_params : np.array Transformed latent variables vector Y : np.array Data for series that is being forecast shock_type : None or str Type of shock; options include None, 'Cov' (simulate from covariance matrix), 'IRF' (impulse response shock) shock_index : int Which latent variable to apply the shock to if using an IRF. shock_value : None or float If specified, applies a custom-sized impulse response shock. shock_dir : str Direction of the IRF shock. One of 'positive' or 'negative'. irf_intervals : Boolean Whether to have intervals for the IRF plot or not Returns ---------- A vector of forecasted data """ random = self._shock_create(h, shock_type, shock_index, shock_value, shock_dir,irf_intervals) exp = [Y[variable] for variable in range(0,self.ylen)] # Each forward projection for t in range(0,h): new_values = np.zeros(self.ylen) # Each variable for variable in range(0,self.ylen): index_ref = variable*(1+self.ylen*self.lags) new_values[variable] = t_params[index_ref] # constant # VAR(p) terms for lag in range(0,self.lags): for lagged_var in range(0,self.ylen): new_values[variable] += t_params[index_ref+lagged_var+(lag*self.ylen)+1]*exp[lagged_var][-1-lag] # Random shock new_values[variable] += random[t][variable] # Add new values for variable in range(0,self.ylen): exp[variable] = np.append(exp[variable],new_values[variable]) return np.array(exp)
python
def _forecast_mean(self,h,t_params,Y,shock_type=None,shock_index=0,shock_value=None,shock_dir='positive',irf_intervals=False): random = self._shock_create(h, shock_type, shock_index, shock_value, shock_dir,irf_intervals) exp = [Y[variable] for variable in range(0,self.ylen)] # Each forward projection for t in range(0,h): new_values = np.zeros(self.ylen) # Each variable for variable in range(0,self.ylen): index_ref = variable*(1+self.ylen*self.lags) new_values[variable] = t_params[index_ref] # constant # VAR(p) terms for lag in range(0,self.lags): for lagged_var in range(0,self.ylen): new_values[variable] += t_params[index_ref+lagged_var+(lag*self.ylen)+1]*exp[lagged_var][-1-lag] # Random shock new_values[variable] += random[t][variable] # Add new values for variable in range(0,self.ylen): exp[variable] = np.append(exp[variable],new_values[variable]) return np.array(exp)
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Function allows for mean prediction; also allows shock specification for simulations or impulse response effects Parameters ---------- h : int How many steps ahead to forecast t_params : np.array Transformed latent variables vector Y : np.array Data for series that is being forecast shock_type : None or str Type of shock; options include None, 'Cov' (simulate from covariance matrix), 'IRF' (impulse response shock) shock_index : int Which latent variable to apply the shock to if using an IRF. shock_value : None or float If specified, applies a custom-sized impulse response shock. shock_dir : str Direction of the IRF shock. One of 'positive' or 'negative'. irf_intervals : Boolean Whether to have intervals for the IRF plot or not Returns ---------- A vector of forecasted data
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/var/var.py#L179-L237
236,337
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/var/var.py
VAR._shock_create
def _shock_create(self, h, shock_type, shock_index, shock_value, shock_dir, irf_intervals): """ Function creates shocks based on desired specification Parameters ---------- h : int How many steps ahead to forecast shock_type : None or str Type of shock; options include None, 'Cov' (simulate from covariance matrix), 'IRF' (impulse response shock) shock_index : int Which latent variables to apply the shock to if using an IRF. shock_value : None or float If specified, applies a custom-sized impulse response shock. shock_dir : str Direction of the IRF shock. One of 'positive' or 'negative'. irf_intervals : Boolean Whether to have intervals for the IRF plot or not Returns ---------- A h-length list which contains np.arrays containing shocks for each variable """ if shock_type is None: random = [np.zeros(self.ylen) for i in range(0,h)] elif shock_type == 'IRF': if self.use_ols_covariance is False: cov = self.custom_covariance(self.latent_variables.get_z_values()) else: cov = self.ols_covariance() post = ss.multivariate_normal(np.zeros(self.ylen),cov) if irf_intervals is False: random = [np.zeros(self.ylen) for i in range(0,h)] else: random = [post.rvs() for i in range(0,h)] random[0] = np.zeros(self.ylen) if shock_value is None: if shock_dir=='positive': random[0][shock_index] = cov[shock_index,shock_index]**0.5 elif shock_dir=='negative': random[0][shock_index] = -cov[shock_index,shock_index]**0.5 else: raise ValueError("Unknown shock direction!") else: random[0][shock_index] = shock_value elif shock_type == 'Cov': if self.use_ols_covariance is False: cov = self.custom_covariance(self.latent_variables.get_z_values()) else: cov = self.ols_covariance() post = ss.multivariate_normal(np.zeros(self.ylen),cov) random = [post.rvs() for i in range(0,h)] return random
python
def _shock_create(self, h, shock_type, shock_index, shock_value, shock_dir, irf_intervals): if shock_type is None: random = [np.zeros(self.ylen) for i in range(0,h)] elif shock_type == 'IRF': if self.use_ols_covariance is False: cov = self.custom_covariance(self.latent_variables.get_z_values()) else: cov = self.ols_covariance() post = ss.multivariate_normal(np.zeros(self.ylen),cov) if irf_intervals is False: random = [np.zeros(self.ylen) for i in range(0,h)] else: random = [post.rvs() for i in range(0,h)] random[0] = np.zeros(self.ylen) if shock_value is None: if shock_dir=='positive': random[0][shock_index] = cov[shock_index,shock_index]**0.5 elif shock_dir=='negative': random[0][shock_index] = -cov[shock_index,shock_index]**0.5 else: raise ValueError("Unknown shock direction!") else: random[0][shock_index] = shock_value elif shock_type == 'Cov': if self.use_ols_covariance is False: cov = self.custom_covariance(self.latent_variables.get_z_values()) else: cov = self.ols_covariance() post = ss.multivariate_normal(np.zeros(self.ylen),cov) random = [post.rvs() for i in range(0,h)] return random
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Function creates shocks based on desired specification Parameters ---------- h : int How many steps ahead to forecast shock_type : None or str Type of shock; options include None, 'Cov' (simulate from covariance matrix), 'IRF' (impulse response shock) shock_index : int Which latent variables to apply the shock to if using an IRF. shock_value : None or float If specified, applies a custom-sized impulse response shock. shock_dir : str Direction of the IRF shock. One of 'positive' or 'negative'. irf_intervals : Boolean Whether to have intervals for the IRF plot or not Returns ---------- A h-length list which contains np.arrays containing shocks for each variable
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/var/var.py#L269-L336
236,338
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/var/var.py
VAR.estimator_cov
def estimator_cov(self,method): """ Creates covariance matrix for the estimators Parameters ---------- method : str Estimation method Returns ---------- A Covariance Matrix """ Y = np.array([reg[self.lags:] for reg in self.data]) Z = self._create_Z(Y) if method == 'OLS': sigma = self.ols_covariance() else: sigma = self.custom_covariance(self.latent_variables.get_z_values()) return np.kron(np.linalg.inv(np.dot(Z,np.transpose(Z))), sigma)
python
def estimator_cov(self,method): Y = np.array([reg[self.lags:] for reg in self.data]) Z = self._create_Z(Y) if method == 'OLS': sigma = self.ols_covariance() else: sigma = self.custom_covariance(self.latent_variables.get_z_values()) return np.kron(np.linalg.inv(np.dot(Z,np.transpose(Z))), sigma)
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Creates covariance matrix for the estimators Parameters ---------- method : str Estimation method Returns ---------- A Covariance Matrix
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/var/var.py#L388-L407
236,339
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/var/var.py
VAR.ols_covariance
def ols_covariance(self): """ Creates OLS estimate of the covariance matrix Returns ---------- The OLS estimate of the covariance matrix """ Y = np.array([reg[self.lags:reg.shape[0]] for reg in self.data]) return (1.0/(Y[0].shape[0]))*np.dot(self.residuals(Y),np.transpose(self.residuals(Y)))
python
def ols_covariance(self): Y = np.array([reg[self.lags:reg.shape[0]] for reg in self.data]) return (1.0/(Y[0].shape[0]))*np.dot(self.residuals(Y),np.transpose(self.residuals(Y)))
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Creates OLS estimate of the covariance matrix Returns ---------- The OLS estimate of the covariance matrix
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/var/var.py#L435-L444
236,340
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/var/var.py
VAR.residuals
def residuals(self,Y): """ Creates the model residuals Parameters ---------- Y : np.array The dependent variables Y Returns ---------- The model residuals """ return (Y-np.dot(self._create_B(Y),self._create_Z(Y)))
python
def residuals(self,Y): return (Y-np.dot(self._create_B(Y),self._create_Z(Y)))
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Creates the model residuals Parameters ---------- Y : np.array The dependent variables Y Returns ---------- The model residuals
[ "Creates", "the", "model", "residuals" ]
297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/var/var.py#L648-L661
236,341
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/var/var.py
VAR.construct_wishart
def construct_wishart(self,v,X): """ Constructs a Wishart prior for the covariance matrix """ self.adjust_prior(list(range(int((len(self.latent_variables.z_list)-self.ylen-(self.ylen**2-self.ylen)/2)), int(len(self.latent_variables.z_list)))), fam.InverseWishart(v,X))
python
def construct_wishart(self,v,X): self.adjust_prior(list(range(int((len(self.latent_variables.z_list)-self.ylen-(self.ylen**2-self.ylen)/2)), int(len(self.latent_variables.z_list)))), fam.InverseWishart(v,X))
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Constructs a Wishart prior for the covariance matrix
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/var/var.py#L663-L668
236,342
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/ssm/llm.py
LLEV.simulation_smoother
def simulation_smoother(self,beta): """ Koopman's simulation smoother - simulates from states given model latent variables and observations Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables Returns ---------- - A simulated state evolution """ T, Z, R, Q, H = self._ss_matrices(beta) # Generate e_t+ and n_t+ rnd_h = np.random.normal(0,np.sqrt(H),self.data.shape[0]+1) q_dist = ss.multivariate_normal([0.0], Q) rnd_q = q_dist.rvs(self.data.shape[0]+1) # Generate a_t+ and y_t+ a_plus = np.zeros((T.shape[0],self.data.shape[0]+1)) a_plus[0,0] = np.mean(self.data[0:5]) y_plus = np.zeros(self.data.shape[0]) for t in range(0,self.data.shape[0]+1): if t == 0: a_plus[:,t] = np.dot(T,a_plus[:,t]) + rnd_q[t] y_plus[t] = np.dot(Z,a_plus[:,t]) + rnd_h[t] else: if t != self.data.shape[0]: a_plus[:,t] = np.dot(T,a_plus[:,t-1]) + rnd_q[t] y_plus[t] = np.dot(Z,a_plus[:,t]) + rnd_h[t] alpha_hat,_ = self.smoothed_state(self.data,beta) alpha_hat_plus,_ = self.smoothed_state(y_plus,beta) alpha_tilde = alpha_hat - alpha_hat_plus + a_plus return alpha_tilde
python
def simulation_smoother(self,beta): T, Z, R, Q, H = self._ss_matrices(beta) # Generate e_t+ and n_t+ rnd_h = np.random.normal(0,np.sqrt(H),self.data.shape[0]+1) q_dist = ss.multivariate_normal([0.0], Q) rnd_q = q_dist.rvs(self.data.shape[0]+1) # Generate a_t+ and y_t+ a_plus = np.zeros((T.shape[0],self.data.shape[0]+1)) a_plus[0,0] = np.mean(self.data[0:5]) y_plus = np.zeros(self.data.shape[0]) for t in range(0,self.data.shape[0]+1): if t == 0: a_plus[:,t] = np.dot(T,a_plus[:,t]) + rnd_q[t] y_plus[t] = np.dot(Z,a_plus[:,t]) + rnd_h[t] else: if t != self.data.shape[0]: a_plus[:,t] = np.dot(T,a_plus[:,t-1]) + rnd_q[t] y_plus[t] = np.dot(Z,a_plus[:,t]) + rnd_h[t] alpha_hat,_ = self.smoothed_state(self.data,beta) alpha_hat_plus,_ = self.smoothed_state(y_plus,beta) alpha_tilde = alpha_hat - alpha_hat_plus + a_plus return alpha_tilde
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Koopman's simulation smoother - simulates from states given model latent variables and observations Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables Returns ---------- - A simulated state evolution
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/ssm/llm.py#L496-L536
236,343
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/ssm/llm.py
LLEV.smoothed_state
def smoothed_state(self,data,beta): """ Creates the negative log marginal likelihood of the model Parameters ---------- data : np.array Data to be smoothed beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables Returns ---------- - Smoothed states """ T, Z, R, Q, H = self._ss_matrices(beta) alpha, V = univariate_KFS(data,Z,H,T,Q,R,0.0) return alpha, V
python
def smoothed_state(self,data,beta): T, Z, R, Q, H = self._ss_matrices(beta) alpha, V = univariate_KFS(data,Z,H,T,Q,R,0.0) return alpha, V
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Creates the negative log marginal likelihood of the model Parameters ---------- data : np.array Data to be smoothed beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables Returns ---------- - Smoothed states
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/ssm/llm.py#L538-L557
236,344
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/tsm.py
TSM._laplace_fit
def _laplace_fit(self,obj_type): """ Performs a Laplace approximation to the posterior Parameters ---------- obj_type : method Whether a likelihood or a posterior Returns ---------- None (plots posterior) """ # Get Mode and Inverse Hessian information y = self.fit(method='PML',printer=False) if y.ihessian is None: raise Exception("No Hessian information - Laplace approximation cannot be performed") else: self.latent_variables.estimation_method = 'Laplace' theta, Y, scores, states, states_var, X_names = self._categorize_model_output(self.latent_variables.get_z_values()) # Change this in future try: latent_variables_store = self.latent_variables.copy() except: latent_variables_store = self.latent_variables return LaplaceResults(data_name=self.data_name,X_names=X_names,model_name=self.model_name, model_type=self.model_type, latent_variables=latent_variables_store,data=Y,index=self.index, multivariate_model=self.multivariate_model,objective_object=obj_type, method='Laplace',ihessian=y.ihessian,signal=theta,scores=scores, z_hide=self._z_hide,max_lag=self.max_lag,states=states,states_var=states_var)
python
def _laplace_fit(self,obj_type): # Get Mode and Inverse Hessian information y = self.fit(method='PML',printer=False) if y.ihessian is None: raise Exception("No Hessian information - Laplace approximation cannot be performed") else: self.latent_variables.estimation_method = 'Laplace' theta, Y, scores, states, states_var, X_names = self._categorize_model_output(self.latent_variables.get_z_values()) # Change this in future try: latent_variables_store = self.latent_variables.copy() except: latent_variables_store = self.latent_variables return LaplaceResults(data_name=self.data_name,X_names=X_names,model_name=self.model_name, model_type=self.model_type, latent_variables=latent_variables_store,data=Y,index=self.index, multivariate_model=self.multivariate_model,objective_object=obj_type, method='Laplace',ihessian=y.ihessian,signal=theta,scores=scores, z_hide=self._z_hide,max_lag=self.max_lag,states=states,states_var=states_var)
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Performs a Laplace approximation to the posterior Parameters ---------- obj_type : method Whether a likelihood or a posterior Returns ---------- None (plots posterior)
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/tsm.py#L187-L221
236,345
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/tsm.py
TSM._optimize_fit
def _optimize_fit(self, obj_type=None, **kwargs): """ This function fits models using Maximum Likelihood or Penalized Maximum Likelihood """ preopt_search = kwargs.get('preopt_search', True) # If user supplied if obj_type == self.neg_loglik: method = 'MLE' else: method = 'PML' # Starting values - check to see if model has preoptimize method, if not, simply use default starting values if preopt_search is True: try: phi = self._preoptimize_model(self.latent_variables.get_z_starting_values(), method) preoptimized = True except: phi = self.latent_variables.get_z_starting_values() preoptimized = False else: preoptimized = False phi = self.latent_variables.get_z_starting_values() phi = kwargs.get('start',phi).copy() # If user supplied # Optimize using L-BFGS-B p = optimize.minimize(obj_type, phi, method='L-BFGS-B', options={'gtol': 1e-8}) if preoptimized is True: p2 = optimize.minimize(obj_type, self.latent_variables.get_z_starting_values(), method='L-BFGS-B', options={'gtol': 1e-8}) if self.neg_loglik(p2.x) < self.neg_loglik(p.x): p = p2 theta, Y, scores, states, states_var, X_names = self._categorize_model_output(p.x) # Check that matrix is non-singular; act accordingly try: ihessian = np.linalg.inv(nd.Hessian(obj_type)(p.x)) ses = np.power(np.abs(np.diag(ihessian)),0.5) self.latent_variables.set_z_values(p.x,method,ses,None) except: ihessian = None ses = None self.latent_variables.set_z_values(p.x,method,None,None) self.latent_variables.estimation_method = method # Change this in future try: latent_variables_store = self.latent_variables.copy() except: latent_variables_store = self.latent_variables return MLEResults(data_name=self.data_name,X_names=X_names,model_name=self.model_name, model_type=self.model_type, latent_variables=latent_variables_store,results=p,data=Y, index=self.index, multivariate_model=self.multivariate_model,objective_object=obj_type, method=method,ihessian=ihessian,signal=theta,scores=scores, z_hide=self._z_hide,max_lag=self.max_lag,states=states,states_var=states_var)
python
def _optimize_fit(self, obj_type=None, **kwargs): preopt_search = kwargs.get('preopt_search', True) # If user supplied if obj_type == self.neg_loglik: method = 'MLE' else: method = 'PML' # Starting values - check to see if model has preoptimize method, if not, simply use default starting values if preopt_search is True: try: phi = self._preoptimize_model(self.latent_variables.get_z_starting_values(), method) preoptimized = True except: phi = self.latent_variables.get_z_starting_values() preoptimized = False else: preoptimized = False phi = self.latent_variables.get_z_starting_values() phi = kwargs.get('start',phi).copy() # If user supplied # Optimize using L-BFGS-B p = optimize.minimize(obj_type, phi, method='L-BFGS-B', options={'gtol': 1e-8}) if preoptimized is True: p2 = optimize.minimize(obj_type, self.latent_variables.get_z_starting_values(), method='L-BFGS-B', options={'gtol': 1e-8}) if self.neg_loglik(p2.x) < self.neg_loglik(p.x): p = p2 theta, Y, scores, states, states_var, X_names = self._categorize_model_output(p.x) # Check that matrix is non-singular; act accordingly try: ihessian = np.linalg.inv(nd.Hessian(obj_type)(p.x)) ses = np.power(np.abs(np.diag(ihessian)),0.5) self.latent_variables.set_z_values(p.x,method,ses,None) except: ihessian = None ses = None self.latent_variables.set_z_values(p.x,method,None,None) self.latent_variables.estimation_method = method # Change this in future try: latent_variables_store = self.latent_variables.copy() except: latent_variables_store = self.latent_variables return MLEResults(data_name=self.data_name,X_names=X_names,model_name=self.model_name, model_type=self.model_type, latent_variables=latent_variables_store,results=p,data=Y, index=self.index, multivariate_model=self.multivariate_model,objective_object=obj_type, method=method,ihessian=ihessian,signal=theta,scores=scores, z_hide=self._z_hide,max_lag=self.max_lag,states=states,states_var=states_var)
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This function fits models using Maximum Likelihood or Penalized Maximum Likelihood
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/tsm.py#L347-L406
236,346
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/tsm.py
TSM.multivariate_neg_logposterior
def multivariate_neg_logposterior(self,beta): """ Returns negative log posterior, for a model with a covariance matrix Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent_variables Returns ---------- Negative log posterior """ post = self.neg_loglik(beta) for k in range(0,self.z_no): if self.latent_variables.z_list[k].prior.covariance_prior is True: post += -self.latent_variables.z_list[k].prior.logpdf(self.custom_covariance(beta)) break else: post += -self.latent_variables.z_list[k].prior.logpdf(beta[k]) return post
python
def multivariate_neg_logposterior(self,beta): post = self.neg_loglik(beta) for k in range(0,self.z_no): if self.latent_variables.z_list[k].prior.covariance_prior is True: post += -self.latent_variables.z_list[k].prior.logpdf(self.custom_covariance(beta)) break else: post += -self.latent_variables.z_list[k].prior.logpdf(beta[k]) return post
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Returns negative log posterior, for a model with a covariance matrix Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent_variables Returns ---------- Negative log posterior
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/tsm.py#L496-L516
236,347
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/tsm.py
TSM.shift_dates
def shift_dates(self,h): """ Auxiliary function for creating dates for forecasts Parameters ---------- h : int How many steps to forecast Returns ---------- A transformed date_index object """ date_index = copy.deepcopy(self.index) date_index = date_index[self.max_lag:len(date_index)] if self.is_pandas is True: if isinstance(date_index, pd.core.indexes.datetimes.DatetimeIndex): if pd.infer_freq(date_index) in ['H', 'M', 'S']: for t in range(h): date_index += pd.DateOffset((date_index[len(date_index)-1] - date_index[len(date_index)-2]).seconds) else: # Assume higher frequency (configured for days) for t in range(h): date_index += pd.DateOffset((date_index[len(date_index)-1] - date_index[len(date_index)-2]).days) elif isinstance(date_index, pd.core.indexes.numeric.Int64Index): for i in range(h): new_value = date_index.values[len(date_index.values)-1] + (date_index.values[len(date_index.values)-1] - date_index.values[len(date_index.values)-2]) date_index = pd.Int64Index(np.append(date_index.values,new_value)) else: for t in range(h): date_index.append(date_index[len(date_index)-1]+1) return date_index
python
def shift_dates(self,h): date_index = copy.deepcopy(self.index) date_index = date_index[self.max_lag:len(date_index)] if self.is_pandas is True: if isinstance(date_index, pd.core.indexes.datetimes.DatetimeIndex): if pd.infer_freq(date_index) in ['H', 'M', 'S']: for t in range(h): date_index += pd.DateOffset((date_index[len(date_index)-1] - date_index[len(date_index)-2]).seconds) else: # Assume higher frequency (configured for days) for t in range(h): date_index += pd.DateOffset((date_index[len(date_index)-1] - date_index[len(date_index)-2]).days) elif isinstance(date_index, pd.core.indexes.numeric.Int64Index): for i in range(h): new_value = date_index.values[len(date_index.values)-1] + (date_index.values[len(date_index.values)-1] - date_index.values[len(date_index.values)-2]) date_index = pd.Int64Index(np.append(date_index.values,new_value)) else: for t in range(h): date_index.append(date_index[len(date_index)-1]+1) return date_index
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Auxiliary function for creating dates for forecasts Parameters ---------- h : int How many steps to forecast Returns ---------- A transformed date_index object
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/tsm.py#L518-L559
236,348
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/tsm.py
TSM.plot_z
def plot_z(self, indices=None,figsize=(15,5),**kwargs): """ Plots latent variables by calling latent parameters object Returns ---------- Pretty plot """ self.latent_variables.plot_z(indices=indices,figsize=figsize,**kwargs)
python
def plot_z(self, indices=None,figsize=(15,5),**kwargs): self.latent_variables.plot_z(indices=indices,figsize=figsize,**kwargs)
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Plots latent variables by calling latent parameters object Returns ---------- Pretty plot
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/tsm.py#L579-L586
236,349
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/ssm/ndynlin.py
NDynReg.evo_blanket
def evo_blanket(self, beta, alpha): """ Creates Markov blanket for the variance latent variables Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables alpha : np.array A vector of states Returns ---------- Markov blanket for variance latent variables """ # Markov blanket for each state evo_blanket = np.zeros(self.state_no) for i in range(evo_blanket.shape[0]): evo_blanket[i] = self.state_likelihood_markov_blanket(beta, alpha, i).sum() # If the family has additional parameters, add their markov blankets if self.family_z_no > 0: evo_blanket = np.append([self.likelihood_markov_blanket(beta).sum()]*(self.family_z_no),evo_blanket) return evo_blanket
python
def evo_blanket(self, beta, alpha): # Markov blanket for each state evo_blanket = np.zeros(self.state_no) for i in range(evo_blanket.shape[0]): evo_blanket[i] = self.state_likelihood_markov_blanket(beta, alpha, i).sum() # If the family has additional parameters, add their markov blankets if self.family_z_no > 0: evo_blanket = np.append([self.likelihood_markov_blanket(beta).sum()]*(self.family_z_no),evo_blanket) return evo_blanket
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Creates Markov blanket for the variance latent variables Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables alpha : np.array A vector of states Returns ---------- Markov blanket for variance latent variables
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/ssm/ndynlin.py#L233-L258
236,350
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/ssm/ndynlin.py
NDynReg.log_p_blanket
def log_p_blanket(self, beta): """ Creates complete Markov blanket for latent variables Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables Returns ---------- Markov blanket for latent variables """ states = np.zeros([self.state_no, self.data.shape[0]]) for state_i in range(self.state_no): states[state_i,:] = beta[(self.z_no + (self.data.shape[0]*state_i)):(self.z_no + (self.data.shape[0]*(state_i+1)))] return np.append(self.evo_blanket(beta,states),self.markov_blanket(beta,states))
python
def log_p_blanket(self, beta): states = np.zeros([self.state_no, self.data.shape[0]]) for state_i in range(self.state_no): states[state_i,:] = beta[(self.z_no + (self.data.shape[0]*state_i)):(self.z_no + (self.data.shape[0]*(state_i+1)))] return np.append(self.evo_blanket(beta,states),self.markov_blanket(beta,states))
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Creates complete Markov blanket for latent variables Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables Returns ---------- Markov blanket for latent variables
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/ssm/ndynlin.py#L260-L276
236,351
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/exponential.py
Exponential.logpdf
def logpdf(self, mu): """ Log PDF for Exponential prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(mu)) """ if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return ss.expon.logpdf(mu, self.lmd0)
python
def logpdf(self, mu): if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return ss.expon.logpdf(mu, self.lmd0)
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Log PDF for Exponential prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(mu))
[ "Log", "PDF", "for", "Exponential", "prior" ]
297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/exponential.py#L177-L192
236,352
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/exponential.py
Exponential.markov_blanket
def markov_blanket(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): """ Markov blanket for the Exponential distribution Parameters ---------- y : np.ndarray univariate time series mean : np.ndarray array of location parameters for the Exponential distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Exponential distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Exponential distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Exponential distribution Returns ---------- - Markov blanket of the Exponential family """ return ss.expon.logpdf(x=y, scale=1/mean)
python
def markov_blanket(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): return ss.expon.logpdf(x=y, scale=1/mean)
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Markov blanket for the Exponential distribution Parameters ---------- y : np.ndarray univariate time series mean : np.ndarray array of location parameters for the Exponential distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Exponential distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Exponential distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Exponential distribution Returns ---------- - Markov blanket of the Exponential family
[ "Markov", "blanket", "for", "the", "Exponential", "distribution" ]
297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/exponential.py#L195-L219
236,353
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/exponential.py
Exponential.pdf
def pdf(self, mu): """ PDF for Exponential prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - p(mu) """ if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return ss.expon.pdf(mu, self.lmd0)
python
def pdf(self, mu): if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return ss.expon.pdf(mu, self.lmd0)
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PDF for Exponential prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - p(mu)
[ "PDF", "for", "Exponential", "prior" ]
297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/exponential.py#L277-L292
236,354
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/inference/bbvi.py
BBVI.change_parameters
def change_parameters(self,params): """ Utility function for changing the approximate distribution parameters """ no_of_params = 0 for core_param in range(len(self.q)): for approx_param in range(self.q[core_param].param_no): self.q[core_param].vi_change_param(approx_param, params[no_of_params]) no_of_params += 1
python
def change_parameters(self,params): no_of_params = 0 for core_param in range(len(self.q)): for approx_param in range(self.q[core_param].param_no): self.q[core_param].vi_change_param(approx_param, params[no_of_params]) no_of_params += 1
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Utility function for changing the approximate distribution parameters
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/inference/bbvi.py#L54-L62
236,355
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/inference/bbvi.py
BBVI.current_parameters
def current_parameters(self): """ Obtains an array with the current parameters """ current = [] for core_param in range(len(self.q)): for approx_param in range(self.q[core_param].param_no): current.append(self.q[core_param].vi_return_param(approx_param)) return np.array(current)
python
def current_parameters(self): current = [] for core_param in range(len(self.q)): for approx_param in range(self.q[core_param].param_no): current.append(self.q[core_param].vi_return_param(approx_param)) return np.array(current)
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Obtains an array with the current parameters
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/inference/bbvi.py#L71-L79
236,356
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/inference/bbvi.py
BBVI.cv_gradient
def cv_gradient(self,z): """ The control variate augmented Monte Carlo gradient estimate """ gradient = np.zeros(np.sum(self.approx_param_no)) z_t = z.T log_q = self.normal_log_q(z.T) log_p = self.log_p(z.T) grad_log_q = self.grad_log_q(z) gradient = grad_log_q*(log_p-log_q) alpha0 = alpha_recursion(np.zeros(np.sum(self.approx_param_no)), grad_log_q, gradient, np.sum(self.approx_param_no)) vectorized = gradient - ((alpha0/np.var(grad_log_q,axis=1))*grad_log_q.T).T return np.mean(vectorized,axis=1)
python
def cv_gradient(self,z): gradient = np.zeros(np.sum(self.approx_param_no)) z_t = z.T log_q = self.normal_log_q(z.T) log_p = self.log_p(z.T) grad_log_q = self.grad_log_q(z) gradient = grad_log_q*(log_p-log_q) alpha0 = alpha_recursion(np.zeros(np.sum(self.approx_param_no)), grad_log_q, gradient, np.sum(self.approx_param_no)) vectorized = gradient - ((alpha0/np.var(grad_log_q,axis=1))*grad_log_q.T).T return np.mean(vectorized,axis=1)
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The control variate augmented Monte Carlo gradient estimate
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/inference/bbvi.py#L81-L96
236,357
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/inference/bbvi.py
BBVI.draw_variables
def draw_variables(self): """ Draw parameters from the approximating distributions """ z = self.q[0].draw_variable_local(self.sims) for i in range(1,len(self.q)): z = np.vstack((z,self.q[i].draw_variable_local(self.sims))) return z
python
def draw_variables(self): z = self.q[0].draw_variable_local(self.sims) for i in range(1,len(self.q)): z = np.vstack((z,self.q[i].draw_variable_local(self.sims))) return z
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Draw parameters from the approximating distributions
[ "Draw", "parameters", "from", "the", "approximating", "distributions" ]
297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/inference/bbvi.py#L129-L136
236,358
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/inference/bbvi.py
BBVI.grad_log_q
def grad_log_q(self,z): """ The gradients of the approximating distributions """ param_count = 0 grad = np.zeros((np.sum(self.approx_param_no),self.sims)) for core_param in range(len(self.q)): for approx_param in range(self.q[core_param].param_no): grad[param_count] = self.q[core_param].vi_score(z[core_param],approx_param) param_count += 1 return grad
python
def grad_log_q(self,z): param_count = 0 grad = np.zeros((np.sum(self.approx_param_no),self.sims)) for core_param in range(len(self.q)): for approx_param in range(self.q[core_param].param_no): grad[param_count] = self.q[core_param].vi_score(z[core_param],approx_param) param_count += 1 return grad
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The gradients of the approximating distributions
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/inference/bbvi.py#L155-L165
236,359
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/inference/bbvi.py
BBVIM.print_progress
def print_progress(self, i, current_params): """ Prints the current ELBO at every decile of total iterations """ for split in range(1,11): if i == (round(self.iterations/10*split)-1): post = -self.full_neg_posterior(current_params) approx = self.create_normal_logq(current_params) diff = post - approx if not self.quiet_progress: print(str(split) + "0% done : ELBO is " + str(diff) + ", p(y,z) is " + str(post) + ", q(z) is " + str(approx))
python
def print_progress(self, i, current_params): for split in range(1,11): if i == (round(self.iterations/10*split)-1): post = -self.full_neg_posterior(current_params) approx = self.create_normal_logq(current_params) diff = post - approx if not self.quiet_progress: print(str(split) + "0% done : ELBO is " + str(diff) + ", p(y,z) is " + str(post) + ", q(z) is " + str(approx))
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Prints the current ELBO at every decile of total iterations
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/inference/bbvi.py#L441-L451
236,360
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/inference/bbvi.py
BBVIM.run
def run(self): """ The core BBVI routine - draws Monte Carlo gradients and uses a stochastic optimizer. """ # Initialization assumptions z = self.draw_normal_initial() gradient = self.cv_gradient_initial(z) gradient[np.isnan(gradient)] = 0 variance = np.power(gradient, 2) final_parameters = self.current_parameters() final_samples = 1 # Create optimizer if self.optimizer == 'ADAM': self.optim = ADAM(final_parameters, variance, self.learning_rate, 0.9, 0.999) elif self.optimizer == 'RMSProp': self.optim = RMSProp(final_parameters, variance, self.learning_rate, 0.99) # Record elbo if self.record_elbo is True: elbo_records = np.zeros(self.iterations) else: elbo_records = None for i in range(self.iterations): x = self.draw_normal() gradient = self.cv_gradient(x) gradient[np.isnan(gradient)] = 0 self.change_parameters(self.optim.update(gradient)) if self.printer is True: self.print_progress(i, self.optim.parameters[::2]) # Construct final parameters using final 10% of samples if i > self.iterations-round(self.iterations/10): final_samples += 1 final_parameters = final_parameters+self.optim.parameters if self.record_elbo is True: elbo_records[i] = self.get_elbo(self.optim.parameters[::2]) final_parameters = final_parameters/float(final_samples) self.change_parameters(final_parameters) final_means = np.array([final_parameters[el] for el in range(len(final_parameters)) if el%2==0]) final_ses = np.array([final_parameters[el] for el in range(len(final_parameters)) if el%2!=0]) if not self.quiet_progress: print("") print("Final model ELBO is " + str(-self.full_neg_posterior(final_means)-self.create_normal_logq(final_means))) return self.q, final_means, final_ses, elbo_records
python
def run(self): # Initialization assumptions z = self.draw_normal_initial() gradient = self.cv_gradient_initial(z) gradient[np.isnan(gradient)] = 0 variance = np.power(gradient, 2) final_parameters = self.current_parameters() final_samples = 1 # Create optimizer if self.optimizer == 'ADAM': self.optim = ADAM(final_parameters, variance, self.learning_rate, 0.9, 0.999) elif self.optimizer == 'RMSProp': self.optim = RMSProp(final_parameters, variance, self.learning_rate, 0.99) # Record elbo if self.record_elbo is True: elbo_records = np.zeros(self.iterations) else: elbo_records = None for i in range(self.iterations): x = self.draw_normal() gradient = self.cv_gradient(x) gradient[np.isnan(gradient)] = 0 self.change_parameters(self.optim.update(gradient)) if self.printer is True: self.print_progress(i, self.optim.parameters[::2]) # Construct final parameters using final 10% of samples if i > self.iterations-round(self.iterations/10): final_samples += 1 final_parameters = final_parameters+self.optim.parameters if self.record_elbo is True: elbo_records[i] = self.get_elbo(self.optim.parameters[::2]) final_parameters = final_parameters/float(final_samples) self.change_parameters(final_parameters) final_means = np.array([final_parameters[el] for el in range(len(final_parameters)) if el%2==0]) final_ses = np.array([final_parameters[el] for el in range(len(final_parameters)) if el%2!=0]) if not self.quiet_progress: print("") print("Final model ELBO is " + str(-self.full_neg_posterior(final_means)-self.create_normal_logq(final_means))) return self.q, final_means, final_ses, elbo_records
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The core BBVI routine - draws Monte Carlo gradients and uses a stochastic optimizer.
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/inference/bbvi.py#L453-L502
236,361
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/garch/segarchm.py
logpdf
def logpdf(x, shape, loc=0.0, scale=1.0, skewness=1.0): """ Log PDF for the Skew-t distribution Parameters ---------- x : np.array random variables shape : float The degrees of freedom for the skew-t distribution loc : np.array The location parameter for the skew-t distribution scale : float The scale of the distribution skewness : float Skewness parameter (if 1, no skewness, if > 1, +ve skew, if < 1, -ve skew) """ m1 = (np.sqrt(shape)*sp.gamma((shape-1.0)/2.0))/(np.sqrt(np.pi)*sp.gamma(shape/2.0)) loc = loc + (skewness - (1.0/skewness))*scale*m1 result = np.zeros(x.shape[0]) result[x-loc<0] = np.log(2.0) - np.log(skewness + 1.0/skewness) + ss.t.logpdf(x=skewness*x[(x-loc) < 0], loc=loc[(x-loc) < 0]*skewness,df=shape, scale=scale[(x-loc) < 0]) result[x-loc>=0] = np.log(2.0) - np.log(skewness + 1.0/skewness) + ss.t.logpdf(x=x[(x-loc) >= 0]/skewness, loc=loc[(x-loc) >= 0]/skewness,df=shape, scale=scale[(x-loc) >= 0]) return result
python
def logpdf(x, shape, loc=0.0, scale=1.0, skewness=1.0): m1 = (np.sqrt(shape)*sp.gamma((shape-1.0)/2.0))/(np.sqrt(np.pi)*sp.gamma(shape/2.0)) loc = loc + (skewness - (1.0/skewness))*scale*m1 result = np.zeros(x.shape[0]) result[x-loc<0] = np.log(2.0) - np.log(skewness + 1.0/skewness) + ss.t.logpdf(x=skewness*x[(x-loc) < 0], loc=loc[(x-loc) < 0]*skewness,df=shape, scale=scale[(x-loc) < 0]) result[x-loc>=0] = np.log(2.0) - np.log(skewness + 1.0/skewness) + ss.t.logpdf(x=x[(x-loc) >= 0]/skewness, loc=loc[(x-loc) >= 0]/skewness,df=shape, scale=scale[(x-loc) >= 0]) return result
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Log PDF for the Skew-t distribution Parameters ---------- x : np.array random variables shape : float The degrees of freedom for the skew-t distribution loc : np.array The location parameter for the skew-t distribution scale : float The scale of the distribution skewness : float Skewness parameter (if 1, no skewness, if > 1, +ve skew, if < 1, -ve skew)
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/garch/segarchm.py#L17-L44
236,362
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/poisson.py
Poisson.approximating_model_reg
def approximating_model_reg(self, beta, T, Z, R, Q, h_approx, data, X, state_no): """ Creates approximating Gaussian model for Poisson measurement density - dynamic regression model Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables T, Z, R, Q : np.array State space matrices used in KFS algorithm data: np.array The univariate time series data X: np.array The regressors state_no : int Number of states Returns ---------- H : np.array Approximating measurement variance matrix mu : np.array Approximating measurement constants """ H = np.ones(data.shape[0]) mu = np.zeros(data.shape[0]) alpha = np.zeros([state_no, data.shape[0]]) tol = 100.0 it = 0 while tol > 10**-7 and it < 5: old_alpha = np.sum(X*alpha.T,axis=1) alpha, V = nld_univariate_KFS(data,Z,H,T,Q,R,mu) H = np.exp(-np.sum(X*alpha.T,axis=1)) mu = data - np.sum(X*alpha.T,axis=1) - np.exp(-np.sum(X*alpha.T,axis=1))*(data - np.exp(np.sum(X*alpha.T,axis=1))) tol = np.mean(np.abs(np.sum(X*alpha.T,axis=1)-old_alpha)) it += 1 return H, mu
python
def approximating_model_reg(self, beta, T, Z, R, Q, h_approx, data, X, state_no): H = np.ones(data.shape[0]) mu = np.zeros(data.shape[0]) alpha = np.zeros([state_no, data.shape[0]]) tol = 100.0 it = 0 while tol > 10**-7 and it < 5: old_alpha = np.sum(X*alpha.T,axis=1) alpha, V = nld_univariate_KFS(data,Z,H,T,Q,R,mu) H = np.exp(-np.sum(X*alpha.T,axis=1)) mu = data - np.sum(X*alpha.T,axis=1) - np.exp(-np.sum(X*alpha.T,axis=1))*(data - np.exp(np.sum(X*alpha.T,axis=1))) tol = np.mean(np.abs(np.sum(X*alpha.T,axis=1)-old_alpha)) it += 1 return H, mu
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Creates approximating Gaussian model for Poisson measurement density - dynamic regression model Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables T, Z, R, Q : np.array State space matrices used in KFS algorithm data: np.array The univariate time series data X: np.array The regressors state_no : int Number of states Returns ---------- H : np.array Approximating measurement variance matrix mu : np.array Approximating measurement constants
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/poisson.py#L86-L131
236,363
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/poisson.py
Poisson.logpdf
def logpdf(self, mu): """ Log PDF for Poisson prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(mu)) """ if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return ss.poisson.logpmf(mu, self.lmd0)
python
def logpdf(self, mu): if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return ss.poisson.logpmf(mu, self.lmd0)
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Log PDF for Poisson prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(mu))
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/poisson.py#L198-L213
236,364
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/poisson.py
Poisson.setup
def setup(): """ Returns the attributes of this family Notes ---------- - scale notes whether family has a variance parameter (sigma) - shape notes whether family has a tail thickness parameter (nu) - skewness notes whether family has a skewness parameter (gamma) - mean_transform is a function which transforms the location parameter - cythonized notes whether the family has cythonized routines Returns ---------- - model name, link function, scale, shape, skewness, mean_transform, cythonized """ name = "Poisson" link = np.exp scale = False shape = False skewness = False mean_transform = np.log cythonized = True return name, link, scale, shape, skewness, mean_transform, cythonized
python
def setup(): name = "Poisson" link = np.exp scale = False shape = False skewness = False mean_transform = np.log cythonized = True return name, link, scale, shape, skewness, mean_transform, cythonized
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Returns the attributes of this family Notes ---------- - scale notes whether family has a variance parameter (sigma) - shape notes whether family has a tail thickness parameter (nu) - skewness notes whether family has a skewness parameter (gamma) - mean_transform is a function which transforms the location parameter - cythonized notes whether the family has cythonized routines Returns ---------- - model name, link function, scale, shape, skewness, mean_transform, cythonized
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/poisson.py#L243-L265
236,365
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/poisson.py
Poisson.pdf
def pdf(self, mu): """ PDF for Poisson prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - p(mu) """ if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return ss.poisson.pmf(mu, self.lmd0)
python
def pdf(self, mu): if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return ss.poisson.pmf(mu, self.lmd0)
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PDF for Poisson prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - p(mu)
[ "PDF", "for", "Poisson", "prior" ]
297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/poisson.py#L294-L309
236,366
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/poisson.py
Poisson.reg_score_function
def reg_score_function(X, y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): """ GAS Poisson Regression Update term using gradient only - native Python function Parameters ---------- X : float datapoint for the right hand side variable y : float datapoint for the time series mean : float location parameter for the Poisson distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Poisson distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Poisson distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Poisson distribution Returns ---------- - Score of the Poisson family """ return X*(y-mean)
python
def reg_score_function(X, y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): return X*(y-mean)
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GAS Poisson Regression Update term using gradient only - native Python function Parameters ---------- X : float datapoint for the right hand side variable y : float datapoint for the time series mean : float location parameter for the Poisson distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Poisson distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Poisson distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Poisson distribution Returns ---------- - Score of the Poisson family
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/poisson.py#L312-L339
236,367
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/poisson.py
Poisson.second_order_score
def second_order_score(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): """ GAS Poisson Update term potentially using second-order information - native Python function Parameters ---------- y : float datapoint for the time series mean : float location parameter for the Poisson distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Poisson distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Poisson distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Poisson distribution Returns ---------- - Adjusted score of the Poisson family """ return (y-mean)/float(mean)
python
def second_order_score(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): return (y-mean)/float(mean)
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GAS Poisson Update term potentially using second-order information - native Python function Parameters ---------- y : float datapoint for the time series mean : float location parameter for the Poisson distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Poisson distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Poisson distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Poisson distribution Returns ---------- - Adjusted score of the Poisson family
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/poisson.py#L342-L366
236,368
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/inverse_gamma.py
InverseGamma.logpdf
def logpdf(self, x): """ Log PDF for Inverse Gamma prior Parameters ---------- x : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(x)) """ if self.transform is not None: x = self.transform(x) return (-self.alpha-1)*np.log(x) - (self.beta/float(x))
python
def logpdf(self, x): if self.transform is not None: x = self.transform(x) return (-self.alpha-1)*np.log(x) - (self.beta/float(x))
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Log PDF for Inverse Gamma prior Parameters ---------- x : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(x))
[ "Log", "PDF", "for", "Inverse", "Gamma", "prior" ]
297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/inverse_gamma.py#L33-L48
236,369
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/inverse_gamma.py
InverseGamma.pdf
def pdf(self, x): """ PDF for Inverse Gamma prior Parameters ---------- x : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - p(x) """ if self.transform is not None: x = self.transform(x) return (x**(-self.alpha-1))*np.exp(-(self.beta/float(x)))
python
def pdf(self, x): if self.transform is not None: x = self.transform(x) return (x**(-self.alpha-1))*np.exp(-(self.beta/float(x)))
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PDF for Inverse Gamma prior Parameters ---------- x : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - p(x)
[ "PDF", "for", "Inverse", "Gamma", "prior" ]
297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/inverse_gamma.py#L50-L65
236,370
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/cauchy.py
Cauchy.logpdf
def logpdf(self, mu): """ Log PDF for Cauchy prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(mu)) """ if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return ss.cauchy.logpdf(mu, self.loc0, self.scale0)
python
def logpdf(self, mu): if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return ss.cauchy.logpdf(mu, self.loc0, self.scale0)
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Log PDF for Cauchy prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(mu))
[ "Log", "PDF", "for", "Cauchy", "prior" ]
297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/cauchy.py#L155-L170
236,371
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/cauchy.py
Cauchy.pdf
def pdf(self, mu): """ PDF for Cauchy prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - p(mu) """ return ss.cauchy.pdf(mu, self.loc0, self.scale0)
python
def pdf(self, mu): return ss.cauchy.pdf(mu, self.loc0, self.scale0)
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PDF for Cauchy prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - p(mu)
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/cauchy.py#L172-L185
236,372
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/cauchy.py
Cauchy.markov_blanket
def markov_blanket(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): """ Markov blanket for each likelihood term - used for state space models Parameters ---------- y : np.ndarray univariate time series mean : np.ndarray array of location parameters for the Cauchy distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Cauchy distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Cauchy distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Cauchy distribution Returns ---------- - Markov blanket of the Cauchy family """ return ss.cauchy.logpdf(y, loc=mean, scale=scale)
python
def markov_blanket(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): return ss.cauchy.logpdf(y, loc=mean, scale=scale)
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Markov blanket for each likelihood term - used for state space models Parameters ---------- y : np.ndarray univariate time series mean : np.ndarray array of location parameters for the Cauchy distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Cauchy distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Cauchy distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Cauchy distribution Returns ---------- - Markov blanket of the Cauchy family
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/cauchy.py#L188-L212
236,373
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/cauchy.py
Cauchy.setup
def setup(): """ Returns the attributes of this family if using in a probabilistic model Notes ---------- - scale notes whether family has a variance parameter (sigma) - shape notes whether family has a tail thickness parameter (nu) - skewness notes whether family has a skewness parameter (gamma) - mean_transform is a function which transforms the location parameter - cythonized notes whether the family has cythonized routines Returns ---------- - model name, link function, scale, shape, skewness, mean_transform, cythonized """ name = "Cauchy" link = np.array scale = True shape = False skewness = False mean_transform = np.array cythonized = True # used for GAS models return name, link, scale, shape, skewness, mean_transform, cythonized
python
def setup(): name = "Cauchy" link = np.array scale = True shape = False skewness = False mean_transform = np.array cythonized = True # used for GAS models return name, link, scale, shape, skewness, mean_transform, cythonized
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Returns the attributes of this family if using in a probabilistic model Notes ---------- - scale notes whether family has a variance parameter (sigma) - shape notes whether family has a tail thickness parameter (nu) - skewness notes whether family has a skewness parameter (gamma) - mean_transform is a function which transforms the location parameter - cythonized notes whether the family has cythonized routines Returns ---------- - model name, link function, scale, shape, skewness, mean_transform, cythonized
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/cauchy.py#L215-L237
236,374
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/cauchy.py
Cauchy.neg_loglikelihood
def neg_loglikelihood(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): """ Negative loglikelihood function for this distribution Parameters ---------- y : np.ndarray univariate time series mean : np.ndarray array of location parameters for the Cauchy distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Cauchy distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Cauchy distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Cauchy distribution Returns ---------- - Negative loglikelihood of the Cauchy family """ return -np.sum(ss.cauchy.logpdf(y, loc=mean, scale=scale))
python
def neg_loglikelihood(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): return -np.sum(ss.cauchy.logpdf(y, loc=mean, scale=scale))
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Negative loglikelihood function for this distribution Parameters ---------- y : np.ndarray univariate time series mean : np.ndarray array of location parameters for the Cauchy distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Cauchy distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Cauchy distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Cauchy distribution Returns ---------- - Negative loglikelihood of the Cauchy family
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/cauchy.py#L294-L318
236,375
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/cauchy.py
Cauchy.reg_score_function
def reg_score_function(X, y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): """ GAS Cauchy Regression Update term using gradient only - native Python function Parameters ---------- X : float datapoint for the right hand side variable y : float datapoint for the time series mean : float location parameter for the Cauchy distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Cauchy distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Cauchy distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Cauchy distribution Returns ---------- - Score of the Cauchy family """ return 2.0*((y-mean)*X)/(np.power(scale,2)+np.power((y-mean),2))
python
def reg_score_function(X, y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): return 2.0*((y-mean)*X)/(np.power(scale,2)+np.power((y-mean),2))
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GAS Cauchy Regression Update term using gradient only - native Python function Parameters ---------- X : float datapoint for the right hand side variable y : float datapoint for the time series mean : float location parameter for the Cauchy distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Cauchy distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Cauchy distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Cauchy distribution Returns ---------- - Score of the Cauchy family
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/cauchy.py#L322-L349
236,376
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/arma/nnarx.py
NNARX.general_neg_loglik
def general_neg_loglik(self, beta): """ Calculates the negative log-likelihood of the model Parameters ---------- beta : np.ndarray Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables Returns ---------- The negative logliklihood of the model """ mu, Y = self._model(beta) parm = np.array([self.latent_variables.z_list[k].prior.transform(beta[k]) for k in range(beta.shape[0])]) #TODO: Replace above with transformation that only acts on scale, shape, skewness in future (speed-up) model_scale, model_shape, model_skewness = self._get_scale_and_shape(parm) return self.family.neg_loglikelihood(Y, self.link(mu), model_scale, model_shape, model_skewness)
python
def general_neg_loglik(self, beta): mu, Y = self._model(beta) parm = np.array([self.latent_variables.z_list[k].prior.transform(beta[k]) for k in range(beta.shape[0])]) #TODO: Replace above with transformation that only acts on scale, shape, skewness in future (speed-up) model_scale, model_shape, model_skewness = self._get_scale_and_shape(parm) return self.family.neg_loglikelihood(Y, self.link(mu), model_scale, model_shape, model_skewness)
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Calculates the negative log-likelihood of the model Parameters ---------- beta : np.ndarray Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables Returns ---------- The negative logliklihood of the model
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/arma/nnarx.py#L430-L447
236,377
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/arma/nnarx.py
NNARX.plot_fit
def plot_fit(self, **kwargs): """ Plots the fit of the model against the data """ import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import seaborn as sns figsize = kwargs.get('figsize',(10,7)) plt.figure(figsize=figsize) date_index = self.index[self.ar:self.data.shape[0]] mu, Y = self._model(self.latent_variables.get_z_values()) plt.plot(date_index,Y,label='Data') plt.plot(date_index,mu,label='Filter',c='black') plt.title(self.data_name) plt.legend(loc=2) plt.show()
python
def plot_fit(self, **kwargs): import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import seaborn as sns figsize = kwargs.get('figsize',(10,7)) plt.figure(figsize=figsize) date_index = self.index[self.ar:self.data.shape[0]] mu, Y = self._model(self.latent_variables.get_z_values()) plt.plot(date_index,Y,label='Data') plt.plot(date_index,mu,label='Filter',c='black') plt.title(self.data_name) plt.legend(loc=2) plt.show()
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Plots the fit of the model against the data
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/arma/nnarx.py#L487-L503
236,378
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/arma/nnarx.py
NNARX.predict_is
def predict_is(self, h=5, fit_once=True, fit_method='MLE', intervals=False, **kwargs): """ Makes dynamic out-of-sample predictions with the estimated model on in-sample data Parameters ---------- h : int (default : 5) How many steps would you like to forecast? fit_once : boolean (default: True) Fits only once before the in-sample prediction; if False, fits after every new datapoint fit_method : string Which method to fit the model with intervals: boolean Whether to return prediction intervals Returns ---------- - pd.DataFrame with predicted values """ predictions = [] for t in range(0,h): x = NNAR(ar=self.ar, units=self.units, layers=self.layers, data=self.data_original[:-h+t], family=self.family) if fit_once is False: x.fit(method=fit_method, printer=False) if t == 0: if fit_once is True: x.fit(method=fit_method, printer=False) saved_lvs = x.latent_variables predictions = x.predict(1, intervals=intervals) else: if fit_once is True: x.latent_variables = saved_lvs predictions = pd.concat([predictions,x.predict(1, intervals=intervals)]) if intervals is True: predictions.rename(columns={0:self.data_name, 1: "1% Prediction Interval", 2: "5% Prediction Interval", 3: "95% Prediction Interval", 4: "99% Prediction Interval"}, inplace=True) else: predictions.rename(columns={0:self.data_name}, inplace=True) predictions.index = self.index[-h:] return predictions
python
def predict_is(self, h=5, fit_once=True, fit_method='MLE', intervals=False, **kwargs): predictions = [] for t in range(0,h): x = NNAR(ar=self.ar, units=self.units, layers=self.layers, data=self.data_original[:-h+t], family=self.family) if fit_once is False: x.fit(method=fit_method, printer=False) if t == 0: if fit_once is True: x.fit(method=fit_method, printer=False) saved_lvs = x.latent_variables predictions = x.predict(1, intervals=intervals) else: if fit_once is True: x.latent_variables = saved_lvs predictions = pd.concat([predictions,x.predict(1, intervals=intervals)]) if intervals is True: predictions.rename(columns={0:self.data_name, 1: "1% Prediction Interval", 2: "5% Prediction Interval", 3: "95% Prediction Interval", 4: "99% Prediction Interval"}, inplace=True) else: predictions.rename(columns={0:self.data_name}, inplace=True) predictions.index = self.index[-h:] return predictions
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Makes dynamic out-of-sample predictions with the estimated model on in-sample data Parameters ---------- h : int (default : 5) How many steps would you like to forecast? fit_once : boolean (default: True) Fits only once before the in-sample prediction; if False, fits after every new datapoint fit_method : string Which method to fit the model with intervals: boolean Whether to return prediction intervals Returns ---------- - pd.DataFrame with predicted values
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/arma/nnarx.py#L557-L603
236,379
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/ssm/nllm.py
NLLEV.likelihood_markov_blanket
def likelihood_markov_blanket(self, beta): """ Creates likelihood markov blanket of the model Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables Returns ---------- - Negative loglikelihood """ states = beta[self.z_no:self.z_no+self.data_length] # the local level (untransformed) parm = np.array([self.latent_variables.z_list[k].prior.transform(beta[k]) for k in range(self.z_no)]) # transformed distribution parameters scale, shape, skewness = self._get_scale_and_shape(parm) return self.family.markov_blanket(self.data, self.link(states), scale, shape, skewness)
python
def likelihood_markov_blanket(self, beta): states = beta[self.z_no:self.z_no+self.data_length] # the local level (untransformed) parm = np.array([self.latent_variables.z_list[k].prior.transform(beta[k]) for k in range(self.z_no)]) # transformed distribution parameters scale, shape, skewness = self._get_scale_and_shape(parm) return self.family.markov_blanket(self.data, self.link(states), scale, shape, skewness)
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Creates likelihood markov blanket of the model Parameters ---------- beta : np.array Contains untransformed starting values for latent variables Returns ---------- - Negative loglikelihood
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/ssm/nllm.py#L135-L150
236,380
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/ssm/nllm.py
NLLEV._animate_bbvi
def _animate_bbvi(self,stored_latent_variables,stored_predictive_likelihood): """ Produces animated plot of BBVI optimization Returns ---------- None (changes model attributes) """ from matplotlib.animation import FuncAnimation, writers import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import seaborn as sns fig = plt.figure() ax = fig.add_subplot(1, 1, 1) ud = BBVINLLMAnimate(ax,self.data,stored_latent_variables,self.index,self.z_no,self.link) anim = FuncAnimation(fig, ud, frames=np.arange(stored_latent_variables.shape[0]), init_func=ud.init, interval=10, blit=True) plt.plot(self.data) plt.xlabel("Time") plt.ylabel(self.data_name) plt.show()
python
def _animate_bbvi(self,stored_latent_variables,stored_predictive_likelihood): from matplotlib.animation import FuncAnimation, writers import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import seaborn as sns fig = plt.figure() ax = fig.add_subplot(1, 1, 1) ud = BBVINLLMAnimate(ax,self.data,stored_latent_variables,self.index,self.z_no,self.link) anim = FuncAnimation(fig, ud, frames=np.arange(stored_latent_variables.shape[0]), init_func=ud.init, interval=10, blit=True) plt.plot(self.data) plt.xlabel("Time") plt.ylabel(self.data_name) plt.show()
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Produces animated plot of BBVI optimization Returns ---------- None (changes model attributes)
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/ssm/nllm.py#L278-L298
236,381
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/ssm/nllm.py
NLLEV.initialize_approx_dist
def initialize_approx_dist(self, phi, start_diffuse, gaussian_latents): """ Initializes the appoximate distibution for the model Parameters ---------- phi : np.ndarray Latent variables start_diffuse: boolean Whether to start from diffuse values or not gaussian_latents: LatentVariables object Latent variables for the Gaussian approximation Returns ---------- BBVI fit object """ # Starting values for approximate distribution for i in range(len(self.latent_variables.z_list)): approx_dist = self.latent_variables.z_list[i].q if isinstance(approx_dist, fam.Normal): self.latent_variables.z_list[i].q.mu0 = phi[i] self.latent_variables.z_list[i].q.sigma0 = np.exp(-3.0) q_list = [k.q for k in self.latent_variables.z_list] # Get starting values for states T, Z, R, Q = self._ss_matrices(phi) H, mu = self.family.approximating_model(phi, T, Z, R, Q, gaussian_latents.get_z_values(transformed=True)[0], self.data) a, V = self.smoothed_state(self.data, phi, H, mu) V[0][0][0] = V[0][0][-1] for item in range(self.data_length): if start_diffuse is False: q_list.append(fam.Normal(a[0][item], np.sqrt(np.abs(V[0][0][item])))) else: q_list.append(fam.Normal(self.family.itransform(np.mean(self.data)), np.sqrt(np.abs(V[0][0][item])))) return q_list
python
def initialize_approx_dist(self, phi, start_diffuse, gaussian_latents): # Starting values for approximate distribution for i in range(len(self.latent_variables.z_list)): approx_dist = self.latent_variables.z_list[i].q if isinstance(approx_dist, fam.Normal): self.latent_variables.z_list[i].q.mu0 = phi[i] self.latent_variables.z_list[i].q.sigma0 = np.exp(-3.0) q_list = [k.q for k in self.latent_variables.z_list] # Get starting values for states T, Z, R, Q = self._ss_matrices(phi) H, mu = self.family.approximating_model(phi, T, Z, R, Q, gaussian_latents.get_z_values(transformed=True)[0], self.data) a, V = self.smoothed_state(self.data, phi, H, mu) V[0][0][0] = V[0][0][-1] for item in range(self.data_length): if start_diffuse is False: q_list.append(fam.Normal(a[0][item], np.sqrt(np.abs(V[0][0][item])))) else: q_list.append(fam.Normal(self.family.itransform(np.mean(self.data)), np.sqrt(np.abs(V[0][0][item])))) return q_list
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Initializes the appoximate distibution for the model Parameters ---------- phi : np.ndarray Latent variables start_diffuse: boolean Whether to start from diffuse values or not gaussian_latents: LatentVariables object Latent variables for the Gaussian approximation Returns ---------- BBVI fit object
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/ssm/nllm.py#L442-L482
236,382
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/t.py
t.logpdf
def logpdf(self, mu): """ Log PDF for t prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(mu)) """ if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return ss.t.logpdf(mu, df=self.df0, loc=self.loc0, scale=self.scale0)
python
def logpdf(self, mu): if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return ss.t.logpdf(mu, df=self.df0, loc=self.loc0, scale=self.scale0)
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Log PDF for t prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(mu))
[ "Log", "PDF", "for", "t", "prior" ]
297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/t.py#L186-L201
236,383
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/t.py
t.second_order_score
def second_order_score(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): """ GAS t Update term potentially using second-order information - native Python function Parameters ---------- y : float datapoint for the time series mean : float location parameter for the t distribution scale : float scale parameter for the t distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the t distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the t distribution Returns ---------- - Adjusted score of the t family """ return ((shape+1)/shape)*(y-mean)/(np.power(scale,2) + (np.power(y-mean,2)/shape))/((shape+1)*((np.power(scale,2)*shape) - np.power(y-mean,2))/np.power((np.power(scale,2)*shape) + np.power(y-mean,2),2))
python
def second_order_score(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): return ((shape+1)/shape)*(y-mean)/(np.power(scale,2) + (np.power(y-mean,2)/shape))/((shape+1)*((np.power(scale,2)*shape) - np.power(y-mean,2))/np.power((np.power(scale,2)*shape) + np.power(y-mean,2),2))
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GAS t Update term potentially using second-order information - native Python function Parameters ---------- y : float datapoint for the time series mean : float location parameter for the t distribution scale : float scale parameter for the t distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the t distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the t distribution Returns ---------- - Adjusted score of the t family
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/t.py#L330-L354
236,384
RJT1990/pyflux
tools/cythonize.py
load_hashes
def load_hashes(filename): """Load the hashes dict from the hashfile""" # { filename : (sha1 of header if available or 'NA', # sha1 of input, # sha1 of output) } hashes = {} try: with open(filename, 'r') as cython_hash_file: for hash_record in cython_hash_file: (filename, header_hash, cython_hash, gen_file_hash) = hash_record.split() hashes[filename] = (header_hash, cython_hash, gen_file_hash) except (KeyError, ValueError, AttributeError, IOError): hashes = {} return hashes
python
def load_hashes(filename): # { filename : (sha1 of header if available or 'NA', # sha1 of input, # sha1 of output) } hashes = {} try: with open(filename, 'r') as cython_hash_file: for hash_record in cython_hash_file: (filename, header_hash, cython_hash, gen_file_hash) = hash_record.split() hashes[filename] = (header_hash, cython_hash, gen_file_hash) except (KeyError, ValueError, AttributeError, IOError): hashes = {} return hashes
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Load the hashes dict from the hashfile
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/tools/cythonize.py#L81-L96
236,385
RJT1990/pyflux
tools/cythonize.py
save_hashes
def save_hashes(hashes, filename): """Save the hashes dict to the hashfile""" with open(filename, 'w') as cython_hash_file: for key, value in hashes.items(): cython_hash_file.write("%s %s %s %s\n" % (key, value[0], value[1], value[2]))
python
def save_hashes(hashes, filename): with open(filename, 'w') as cython_hash_file: for key, value in hashes.items(): cython_hash_file.write("%s %s %s %s\n" % (key, value[0], value[1], value[2]))
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Save the hashes dict to the hashfile
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/tools/cythonize.py#L99-L104
236,386
RJT1990/pyflux
tools/cythonize.py
clean_path
def clean_path(path): """Clean the path""" path = path.replace(os.sep, '/') if path.startswith('./'): path = path[2:] return path
python
def clean_path(path): path = path.replace(os.sep, '/') if path.startswith('./'): path = path[2:] return path
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Clean the path
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/tools/cythonize.py#L114-L119
236,387
RJT1990/pyflux
tools/cythonize.py
get_hash_tuple
def get_hash_tuple(header_path, cython_path, gen_file_path): """Get the hashes from the given files""" header_hash = (sha1_of_file(header_path) if os.path.exists(header_path) else 'NA') from_hash = sha1_of_file(cython_path) to_hash = (sha1_of_file(gen_file_path) if os.path.exists(gen_file_path) else 'NA') return header_hash, from_hash, to_hash
python
def get_hash_tuple(header_path, cython_path, gen_file_path): header_hash = (sha1_of_file(header_path) if os.path.exists(header_path) else 'NA') from_hash = sha1_of_file(cython_path) to_hash = (sha1_of_file(gen_file_path) if os.path.exists(gen_file_path) else 'NA') return header_hash, from_hash, to_hash
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Get the hashes from the given files
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/tools/cythonize.py#L122-L131
236,388
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/truncated_normal.py
TruncatedNormal.logpdf
def logpdf(self, mu): """ Log PDF for Truncated Normal prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(mu)) """ if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) if mu < self.lower and self.lower is not None: return -10.0**6 elif mu > self.upper and self.upper is not None: return -10.0**6 else: return -np.log(float(self.sigma0)) - (0.5*(mu-self.mu0)**2)/float(self.sigma0**2)
python
def logpdf(self, mu): if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) if mu < self.lower and self.lower is not None: return -10.0**6 elif mu > self.upper and self.upper is not None: return -10.0**6 else: return -np.log(float(self.sigma0)) - (0.5*(mu-self.mu0)**2)/float(self.sigma0**2)
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Log PDF for Truncated Normal prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(mu))
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/truncated_normal.py#L42-L62
236,389
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/truncated_normal.py
TruncatedNormal.pdf
def pdf(self, mu): """ PDF for Truncated Normal prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - p(mu) """ if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) if mu < self.lower and self.lower is not None: return 0.0 elif mu > self.upper and self.upper is not None: return 0.0 else: return (1/float(self.sigma0))*np.exp(-(0.5*(mu-self.mu0)**2)/float(self.sigma0**2))
python
def pdf(self, mu): if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) if mu < self.lower and self.lower is not None: return 0.0 elif mu > self.upper and self.upper is not None: return 0.0 else: return (1/float(self.sigma0))*np.exp(-(0.5*(mu-self.mu0)**2)/float(self.sigma0**2))
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PDF for Truncated Normal prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - p(mu)
[ "PDF", "for", "Truncated", "Normal", "prior" ]
297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/truncated_normal.py#L64-L84
236,390
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/inference/metropolis_hastings.py
MetropolisHastings.tune_scale
def tune_scale(acceptance, scale): """ Tunes scale for M-H algorithm Parameters ---------- acceptance : float The most recent acceptance rate scale : float The current scale parameter Returns ---------- scale : float An adjusted scale parameter Notes ---------- Ross : Initially did this by trial and error, then refined by looking at other implementations, so some credit here to PyMC3 which became a guideline for this. """ if acceptance > 0.8: scale *= 2.0 elif acceptance <= 0.8 and acceptance > 0.4: scale *= 1.3 elif acceptance < 0.234 and acceptance > 0.1: scale *= (1/1.3) elif acceptance <= 0.1 and acceptance > 0.05: scale *= 0.4 elif acceptance <= 0.05 and acceptance > 0.01: scale *= 0.2 elif acceptance <= 0.01: scale *= 0.1 return scale
python
def tune_scale(acceptance, scale): if acceptance > 0.8: scale *= 2.0 elif acceptance <= 0.8 and acceptance > 0.4: scale *= 1.3 elif acceptance < 0.234 and acceptance > 0.1: scale *= (1/1.3) elif acceptance <= 0.1 and acceptance > 0.05: scale *= 0.4 elif acceptance <= 0.05 and acceptance > 0.01: scale *= 0.2 elif acceptance <= 0.01: scale *= 0.1 return scale
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Tunes scale for M-H algorithm Parameters ---------- acceptance : float The most recent acceptance rate scale : float The current scale parameter Returns ---------- scale : float An adjusted scale parameter Notes ---------- Ross : Initially did this by trial and error, then refined by looking at other implementations, so some credit here to PyMC3 which became a guideline for this.
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/inference/metropolis_hastings.py#L66-L100
236,391
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/normal.py
Normal.draw_variable_local
def draw_variable_local(self, size): """ Simulate from the Normal distribution using instance values Parameters ---------- size : int How many simulations to perform Returns ---------- np.ndarray of Normal random variable """ return ss.norm.rvs(loc=self.mu0, scale=self.sigma0, size=size)
python
def draw_variable_local(self, size): return ss.norm.rvs(loc=self.mu0, scale=self.sigma0, size=size)
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Simulate from the Normal distribution using instance values Parameters ---------- size : int How many simulations to perform Returns ---------- np.ndarray of Normal random variable
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/normal.py#L154-L166
236,392
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/normal.py
Normal.first_order_score
def first_order_score(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): """ GAS Normal Update term using gradient only - native Python function Parameters ---------- y : float datapoint for the time series mean : float location parameter for the Normal distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Normal distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Normal distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Normal distribution Returns ---------- - Score of the Normal family """ return (y-mean)/np.power(scale,2)
python
def first_order_score(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): return (y-mean)/np.power(scale,2)
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GAS Normal Update term using gradient only - native Python function Parameters ---------- y : float datapoint for the time series mean : float location parameter for the Normal distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Normal distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Normal distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Normal distribution Returns ---------- - Score of the Normal family
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/normal.py#L169-L193
236,393
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/normal.py
Normal.logpdf
def logpdf(self, mu): """ Log PDF for Normal prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(mu)) """ if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return -np.log(float(self.sigma0)) - (0.5*(mu-self.mu0)**2)/float(self.sigma0**2)
python
def logpdf(self, mu): if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return -np.log(float(self.sigma0)) - (0.5*(mu-self.mu0)**2)/float(self.sigma0**2)
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Log PDF for Normal prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(mu))
[ "Log", "PDF", "for", "Normal", "prior" ]
297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/normal.py#L195-L210
236,394
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/normal.py
Normal.pdf
def pdf(self, mu): """ PDF for Normal prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - p(mu) """ if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return (1.0/float(self.sigma0))*np.exp(-(0.5*(mu-self.mu0)**2)/float(self.sigma0**2))
python
def pdf(self, mu): if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return (1.0/float(self.sigma0))*np.exp(-(0.5*(mu-self.mu0)**2)/float(self.sigma0**2))
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PDF for Normal prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - p(mu)
[ "PDF", "for", "Normal", "prior" ]
297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/normal.py#L291-L306
236,395
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/normal.py
Normal.vi_change_param
def vi_change_param(self, index, value): """ Wrapper function for changing latent variables - variational inference Parameters ---------- index : int 0 or 1 depending on which latent variable value : float What to change the latent variable to """ if index == 0: self.mu0 = value elif index == 1: self.sigma0 = np.exp(value)
python
def vi_change_param(self, index, value): if index == 0: self.mu0 = value elif index == 1: self.sigma0 = np.exp(value)
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Wrapper function for changing latent variables - variational inference Parameters ---------- index : int 0 or 1 depending on which latent variable value : float What to change the latent variable to
[ "Wrapper", "function", "for", "changing", "latent", "variables", "-", "variational", "inference" ]
297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/normal.py#L365-L379
236,396
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/normal.py
Normal.vi_return_param
def vi_return_param(self, index): """ Wrapper function for selecting appropriate latent variable for variational inference Parameters ---------- index : int 0 or 1 depending on which latent variable Returns ---------- The appropriate indexed parameter """ if index == 0: return self.mu0 elif index == 1: return np.log(self.sigma0)
python
def vi_return_param(self, index): if index == 0: return self.mu0 elif index == 1: return np.log(self.sigma0)
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Wrapper function for selecting appropriate latent variable for variational inference Parameters ---------- index : int 0 or 1 depending on which latent variable Returns ---------- The appropriate indexed parameter
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/normal.py#L381-L396
236,397
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/normal.py
Normal.vi_score
def vi_score(self, x, index): """ Wrapper function for selecting appropriate score Parameters ---------- x : float A random variable index : int 0 or 1 depending on which latent variable Returns ---------- The gradient of the scale latent variable at x """ if index == 0: return self.vi_loc_score(x) elif index == 1: return self.vi_scale_score(x)
python
def vi_score(self, x, index): if index == 0: return self.vi_loc_score(x) elif index == 1: return self.vi_scale_score(x)
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Wrapper function for selecting appropriate score Parameters ---------- x : float A random variable index : int 0 or 1 depending on which latent variable Returns ---------- The gradient of the scale latent variable at x
[ "Wrapper", "function", "for", "selecting", "appropriate", "score" ]
297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/normal.py#L426-L444
236,398
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/laplace.py
Laplace.first_order_score
def first_order_score(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): """ GAS Laplace Update term using gradient only - native Python function Parameters ---------- y : float datapoint for the time series mean : float location parameter for the Laplace distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Laplace distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Laplace distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Laplace distribution Returns ---------- - Score of the Laplace family """ return (y-mean)/float(scale*np.abs(y-mean))
python
def first_order_score(y, mean, scale, shape, skewness): return (y-mean)/float(scale*np.abs(y-mean))
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GAS Laplace Update term using gradient only - native Python function Parameters ---------- y : float datapoint for the time series mean : float location parameter for the Laplace distribution scale : float scale parameter for the Laplace distribution shape : float tail thickness parameter for the Laplace distribution skewness : float skewness parameter for the Laplace distribution Returns ---------- - Score of the Laplace family
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297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/laplace.py#L156-L180
236,399
RJT1990/pyflux
pyflux/families/laplace.py
Laplace.logpdf
def logpdf(self, mu): """ Log PDF for Laplace prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(mu)) """ if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return ss.laplace.logpdf(mu, loc=self.loc0, scale=self.scale0)
python
def logpdf(self, mu): if self.transform is not None: mu = self.transform(mu) return ss.laplace.logpdf(mu, loc=self.loc0, scale=self.scale0)
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Log PDF for Laplace prior Parameters ---------- mu : float Latent variable for which the prior is being formed over Returns ---------- - log(p(mu))
[ "Log", "PDF", "for", "Laplace", "prior" ]
297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f
https://github.com/RJT1990/pyflux/blob/297f2afc2095acd97c12e827dd500e8ea5da0c0f/pyflux/families/laplace.py#L182-L197