PortBench
Collection
PortBench: A Correlation-Aware, Full-Pipeline Benchmark for LLM-Driven Portfolio Management • 2 items • Updated
id stringlengths 20 20 | template stringclasses 6
values | complexity int64 1 3 | split stringclasses 1
value | market_regime stringclasses 1
value | asset_class stringclasses 1
value | assets listlengths 1 4 | decision_date timestamp[s]date 2015-02-05 00:00:00 2022-12-28 00:00:00 | context_summary stringlengths 52 153 | question stringlengths 245 9.63k | answer stringlengths 2 63 | answer_numeric float64 -3.07 9.2 | explanation stringlengths 100 240 | metadata unknown |
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T1_all_20171211_0000 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"ETH-USD"
] | 2017-12-11T00:00:00 | ETH-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +37.7%, annualized vol 79.6%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: ETH-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=320.88, end=441.72, cumulative_return=+37.7%, annualized_volatility=79.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.16, 'cpi_yoy': 247.805, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19882.352, 't10y2y_spread': 0.58, 't10y3m_spread': 1.1, 'breakeven_10y': 1.88, 'hy_o... | positive | 0.499878 | The actual 21-day forward return for ETH-USD starting 2017-12-11 was +49.99%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.499878,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.376575,
"annualized_vol": 0.795546,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20180613_0005 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"BTC-USD"
] | 2018-06-13T00:00:00 | BTC-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -17.6%, annualized vol 53.8%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: BTC-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=7986.24, end=6582.36, cumulative_return=-17.6%, annualized_volatility=53.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.7, 'cpi_yoy': 251.018, 'unemployment': 4.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20150.476, 't10y2y_spread': 0.42, 't10y3m_spread': 1.04, 'breakeven_10y': 2.13, 'hy... | positive | 0.039001 | The actual 21-day forward return for BTC-USD starting 2018-06-13 was +3.90%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.039001,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.175787,
"annualized_vol": 0.5384,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20160127_0008 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"QUAL"
] | 2016-01-27T00:00:00 | QUAL over past 60 days: cumulative return -7.6%, annualized vol 17.6%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: QUAL
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=56.42, end=52.15, cumulative_return=-7.6%, annualized_volatility=17.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.38, 'cpi_yoy': 237.652, 'unemployment': 4.8, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19001.69, 't10y2y_spread': 1.16, 't10y3m_spread': 1.7, 'breakeven_10y': 1.36, 'hy_oas': 7.... | positive | 0.034979 | The actual 21-day forward return for QUAL starting 2016-01-27 was +3.50%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.034978999999999996,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.075668,
"annualized_vol": 0.17582799999999998,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20210326_0011 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"FXI"
] | 2021-03-26T00:00:00 | FXI over past 60 days: cumulative return -0.4%, annualized vol 29.5%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: FXI
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=40.62, end=40.47, cumulative_return=-0.4%, annualized_volatility=29.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.07, 'cpi_yoy': 264.961, 'unemployment': 6.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21082.134, 't10y2y_spread': 1.49, 't10y3m_spread': 1.61, 'breakeven_10y': 2.32, 'hy_oas': 3... | flat | 0.004285 | The actual 21-day forward return for FXI starting 2021-03-26 was +0.43%, which classifies as 'flat'. | {
"future_return": 0.004285,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.0035169999999999997,
"annualized_vol": 0.29462000000000005,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20210520_0014 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"DOT-USD"
] | 2021-05-20T00:00:00 | DOT-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -31.4%, annualized vol 116.7%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: DOT-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=36.79, end=25.23, cumulative_return=-31.4%, annualized_volatility=116.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.06, 'cpi_yoy': 268.383, 'unemployment': 5.8, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21440.929, 't10y2y_spread': 1.52, 't10y3m_spread': 1.67, 'breakeven_10y': 2.48, 'hy_o... | negative | -0.221805 | The actual 21-day forward return for DOT-USD starting 2021-05-20 was -22.18%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.221805,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.314361,
"annualized_vol": 1.167115,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20220127_0017 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"EFA"
] | 2022-01-27T00:00:00 | EFA over past 60 days: cumulative return -6.1%, annualized vol 13.1%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: EFA
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=70.53, end=66.20, cumulative_return=-6.1%, annualized_volatility=13.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 282.543, 'unemployment': 4.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21932.71, 't10y2y_spread': 0.72, 't10y3m_spread': 1.66, 'breakeven_10y': 2.38, 'hy_oas': 3.... | flat | 0.002148 | The actual 21-day forward return for EFA starting 2022-01-27 was +0.21%, which classifies as 'flat'. | {
"future_return": 0.0021479999999999997,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.061290000000000004,
"annualized_vol": 0.131156,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20210218_0020 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"ADA-USD"
] | 2021-02-18T00:00:00 | ADA-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +450.0%, annualized vol 136.7%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: ADA-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=0.16, end=0.89, cumulative_return=+450.0%, annualized_volatility=136.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 263.579, 'unemployment': 6.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21082.134, 't10y2y_spread': 1.18, 't10y3m_spread': 1.25, 'breakeven_10y': 2.21, 'hy_oa... | positive | 0.230463 | The actual 21-day forward return for ADA-USD starting 2021-02-18 was +23.05%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.230463,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 4.499913,
"annualized_vol": 1.367099,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20200715_0023 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"MATIC-USD"
] | 2020-07-15T00:00:00 | MATIC-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +11.6%, annualized vol 85.8%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: MATIC-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=0.02, end=0.02, cumulative_return=+11.6%, annualized_volatility=85.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.09, 'cpi_yoy': 258.352, 'unemployment': 10.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20558.879, 't10y2y_spread': 0.49, 't10y3m_spread': 0.48, 'breakeven_10y': 1.41, 'hy_o... | negative | -0.04018 | The actual 21-day forward return for MATIC-USD starting 2020-07-15 was -4.02%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.04018,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.115627,
"annualized_vol": 0.857985,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20200624_0026 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"PALL"
] | 2020-06-24T00:00:00 | PALL over past 60 days: cumulative return -18.7%, annualized vol 38.0%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: PALL
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=222.19, end=180.56, cumulative_return=-18.7%, annualized_volatility=38.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 257.042, 'unemployment': 11.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19077.992, 't10y2y_spread': 0.54, 't10y3m_spread': 0.56, 'breakeven_10y': 1.38, 'hy_oa... | positive | 0.153737 | The actual 21-day forward return for PALL starting 2020-06-24 was +15.37%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.15373699999999998,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.187362,
"annualized_vol": 0.37967,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20170817_0029 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"BTC-USD"
] | 2017-08-17T00:00:00 | BTC-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +21.6%, annualized vol 72.3%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: BTC-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=3599.77, end=4376.63, cumulative_return=+21.6%, annualized_volatility=72.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.16, 'cpi_yoy': 245.183, 'unemployment': 4.4, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19660.766, 't10y2y_spread': 0.9, 't10y3m_spread': 1.21, 'breakeven_10y': 1.78, 'hy... | positive | 0.061913 | The actual 21-day forward return for BTC-USD starting 2017-08-17 was +6.19%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.061912999999999996,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.21581000000000003,
"annualized_vol": 0.722691,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20200901_0032 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"SCHH"
] | 2020-09-01T00:00:00 | SCHH over past 60 days: cumulative return -9.4%, annualized vol 24.6%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: SCHH
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=17.18, end=15.57, cumulative_return=-9.4%, annualized_volatility=24.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.09, 'cpi_yoy': 259.316, 'unemployment': 8.4, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20558.879, 't10y2y_spread': 0.58, 't10y3m_spread': 0.61, 'breakeven_10y': 1.8, 'hy_oas': 5... | flat | -0.007001 | The actual 21-day forward return for SCHH starting 2020-09-01 was -0.70%, which classifies as 'flat'. | {
"future_return": -0.007000999999999999,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.09360199999999999,
"annualized_vol": 0.246271,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20180727_0037 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"XLF"
] | 2018-07-27T00:00:00 | XLF over past 60 days: cumulative return +3.8%, annualized vol 15.0%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: XLF
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=23.31, end=24.20, cumulative_return=+3.8%, annualized_volatility=15.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.91, 'cpi_yoy': 251.214, 'unemployment': 3.8, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20276.154, 't10y2y_spread': 0.29, 't10y3m_spread': 0.99, 'breakeven_10y': 2.11, 'hy_oas': 3... | positive | 0.017419 | The actual 21-day forward return for XLF starting 2018-07-27 was +1.74%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.017419,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.038364999999999996,
"annualized_vol": 0.15012899999999998,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20160219_0040 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"QQQ"
] | 2016-02-19T00:00:00 | QQQ over past 60 days: cumulative return -11.2%, annualized vol 24.0%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: QQQ
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=106.02, end=94.13, cumulative_return=-11.2%, annualized_volatility=24.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.38, 'cpi_yoy': 237.336, 'unemployment': 4.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19001.69, 't10y2y_spread': 1.04, 't10y3m_spread': 1.45, 'breakeven_10y': 1.24, 'hy_oas': ... | positive | 0.063758 | The actual 21-day forward return for QQQ starting 2016-02-19 was +6.38%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.063758,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.112164,
"annualized_vol": 0.23974399999999998,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20191016_0043 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"ETH-USD"
] | 2019-10-16T00:00:00 | ETH-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -2.3%, annualized vol 57.5%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: ETH-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=185.69, end=181.41, cumulative_return=-2.3%, annualized_volatility=57.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.9, 'cpi_yoy': 257.155, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20985.448, 't10y2y_spread': 0.16, 't10y3m_spread': 0.1, 'breakeven_10y': 1.56, 'hy_oas... | positive | 0.088518 | The actual 21-day forward return for ETH-USD starting 2019-10-16 was +8.85%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.088518,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.023058,
"annualized_vol": 0.574769,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20160802_0046 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"EEM"
] | 2016-08-02T00:00:00 | EEM over past 60 days: cumulative return +10.9%, annualized vol 19.4%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: EEM
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=26.30, end=29.18, cumulative_return=+10.9%, annualized_volatility=19.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.4, 'cpi_yoy': 240.545, 'unemployment': 4.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19197.938, 't10y2y_spread': 0.84, 't10y3m_spread': 1.22, 'breakeven_10y': 1.46, 'hy_oas': 5... | positive | 0.018116 | The actual 21-day forward return for EEM starting 2016-08-02 was +1.81%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.018116,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.109472,
"annualized_vol": 0.194315,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20171107_0049 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"DBB"
] | 2017-11-07T00:00:00 | DBB over past 60 days: cumulative return +4.5%, annualized vol 16.1%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: DBB
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=14.97, end=15.65, cumulative_return=+4.5%, annualized_volatility=16.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.16, 'cpi_yoy': 247.284, 'unemployment': 4.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19882.352, 't10y2y_spread': 0.71, 't10y3m_spread': 1.13, 'breakeven_10y': 1.86, 'hy_oas': 3... | negative | -0.042139 | The actual 21-day forward return for DBB starting 2017-11-07 was -4.21%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.042138999999999996,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.045354,
"annualized_vol": 0.16108599999999998,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20211130_0052 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"SOL-USD"
] | 2021-11-30T00:00:00 | SOL-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +26.4%, annualized vol 84.3%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: SOL-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=161.68, end=204.32, cumulative_return=+26.4%, annualized_volatility=84.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 278.919, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21988.737, 't10y2y_spread': 1.01, 't10y3m_spread': 1.46, 'breakeven_10y': 2.54, 'hy_... | negative | -0.126837 | The actual 21-day forward return for SOL-USD starting 2021-11-30 was -12.68%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.126837,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.263708,
"annualized_vol": 0.843428,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 20
} |
T1_all_20221006_0055 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"BNB-USD"
] | 2022-10-06T00:00:00 | BNB-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -8.9%, annualized vol 41.2%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: BNB-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=322.92, end=294.14, cumulative_return=-8.9%, annualized_volatility=41.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 3.08, 'cpi_yoy': 298.007, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22278.345, 't10y2y_spread': -0.39, 't10y3m_spread': 0.3, 'breakeven_10y': 2.22, 'hy_o... | flat | 0.000733 | The actual 21-day forward return for BNB-USD starting 2022-10-06 was +0.07%, which classifies as 'flat'. | {
"future_return": 0.0007329999999999999,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.08913499999999999,
"annualized_vol": 0.41207699999999997,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 20
} |
T1_all_20210503_0058 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"ETH-USD"
] | 2021-05-03T00:00:00 | ETH-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +91.5%, annualized vol 66.4%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: ETH-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=1541.91, end=2952.06, cumulative_return=+91.5%, annualized_volatility=66.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.05, 'cpi_yoy': 268.383, 'unemployment': 5.8, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21440.929, 't10y2y_spread': 1.49, 't10y3m_spread': 1.64, 'breakeven_10y': 2.41, 'h... | negative | -0.229518 | The actual 21-day forward return for ETH-USD starting 2021-05-03 was -22.95%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.229518,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.91454,
"annualized_vol": 0.664362,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20211029_0065 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"XLE"
] | 2021-10-29T00:00:00 | XLE over past 60 days: cumulative return +19.3%, annualized vol 27.2%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: XLE
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=20.60, end=24.58, cumulative_return=+19.3%, annualized_volatility=27.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 276.55, 'unemployment': 4.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21988.737, 't10y2y_spread': 1.07, 't10y3m_spread': 1.51, 'breakeven_10y': 2.57, 'hy_oas': 3... | negative | -0.027319 | The actual 21-day forward return for XLE starting 2021-10-29 was -2.73%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.027319,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.193494,
"annualized_vol": 0.272482,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20211008_0068 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"XLP"
] | 2021-10-08T00:00:00 | XLP over past 60 days: cumulative return -0.5%, annualized vol 9.9%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: XLP
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=62.59, end=62.27, cumulative_return=-0.5%, annualized_volatility=9.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 276.55, 'unemployment': 4.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21988.737, 't10y2y_spread': 1.26, 't10y3m_spread': 1.53, 'breakeven_10y': 2.46, 'hy_oas': 3.1... | positive | 0.033833 | The actual 21-day forward return for XLP starting 2021-10-08 was +3.38%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.033832999999999995,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.005117,
"annualized_vol": 0.098978,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20160804_0071 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"SCHH"
] | 2016-08-04T00:00:00 | SCHH over past 60 days: cumulative return +5.0%, annualized vol 13.5%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: SCHH
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=16.06, end=16.87, cumulative_return=+5.0%, annualized_volatility=13.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.4, 'cpi_yoy': 240.545, 'unemployment': 4.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19197.938, 't10y2y_spread': 0.88, 't10y3m_spread': 1.27, 'breakeven_10y': 1.46, 'hy_oas': 5... | flat | -0.005417 | The actual 21-day forward return for SCHH starting 2016-08-04 was -0.54%, which classifies as 'flat'. | {
"future_return": -0.005417,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.050115,
"annualized_vol": 0.135155,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20220915_0076 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"XRP-USD"
] | 2022-09-15T00:00:00 | XRP-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -0.4%, annualized vol 46.1%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: XRP-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=0.34, end=0.34, cumulative_return=-0.4%, annualized_volatility=46.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.33, 'cpi_yoy': 296.349, 'unemployment': 3.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22125.625, 't10y2y_spread': -0.37, 't10y3m_spread': 0.17, 'breakeven_10y': 2.46, 'hy_oas'... | positive | 0.511281 | The actual 21-day forward return for XRP-USD starting 2022-09-15 was +51.13%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.511281,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.0038729999999999997,
"annualized_vol": 0.461455,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 20
} |
T1_all_20200106_0079 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"XLRE"
] | 2020-01-06T00:00:00 | XLRE over past 60 days: cumulative return -0.9%, annualized vol 12.1%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: XLRE
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=31.52, end=31.24, cumulative_return=-0.9%, annualized_volatility=12.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.55, 'cpi_yoy': 259.127, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20709.212, 't10y2y_spread': 0.27, 't10y3m_spread': 0.28, 'breakeven_10y': 1.77, 'hy_oas': ... | positive | 0.032199 | The actual 21-day forward return for XLRE starting 2020-01-06 was +3.22%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.032199,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.008685,
"annualized_vol": 0.121046,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20161101_0082 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"ICSH"
] | 2016-11-01T00:00:00 | ICSH over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.1%, annualized vol 2.0%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: ICSH
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=38.79, end=38.82, cumulative_return=+0.1%, annualized_volatility=2.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.31, 'cpi_yoy': 241.741, 'unemployment': 4.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19304.352, 't10y2y_spread': 0.98, 't10y3m_spread': 1.5, 'breakeven_10y': 1.73, 'hy_oas': 4.... | flat | 0.0008 | The actual 21-day forward return for ICSH starting 2016-11-01 was +0.08%, which classifies as 'flat'. | {
"future_return": 0.0008,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.000659,
"annualized_vol": 0.01975,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20190619_0085 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"USO"
] | 2019-06-19T00:00:00 | USO over past 60 days: cumulative return -8.8%, annualized vol 32.8%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: USO
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=98.72, end=90.00, cumulative_return=-8.8%, annualized_volatility=32.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.37, 'cpi_yoy': 255.213, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20602.275, 't10y2y_spread': 0.2, 't10y3m_spread': -0.16, 'breakeven_10y': 1.64, 'hy_oas': 4... | positive | 0.0203 | The actual 21-day forward return for USO starting 2019-06-19 was +2.03%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.020300000000000002,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.08833099999999999,
"annualized_vol": 0.327551,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20190729_0090 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"IWM"
] | 2019-07-29T00:00:00 | IWM over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.1%, annualized vol 16.5%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: IWM
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=144.24, end=144.45, cumulative_return=+0.1%, annualized_volatility=16.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.4, 'cpi_yoy': 255.802, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20843.322, 't10y2y_spread': 0.22, 't10y3m_spread': -0.04, 'breakeven_10y': 1.78, 'hy_oas':... | negative | -0.072366 | The actual 21-day forward return for IWM starting 2019-07-29 was -7.24%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.072366,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.001486,
"annualized_vol": 0.16508299999999998,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20190620_0094 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"BNB-USD"
] | 2019-06-20T00:00:00 | BNB-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +45.9%, annualized vol 75.8%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: BNB-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=24.19, end=35.29, cumulative_return=+45.9%, annualized_volatility=75.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.37, 'cpi_yoy': 255.213, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20602.275, 't10y2y_spread': 0.29, 't10y3m_spread': -0.15, 'breakeven_10y': 1.67, 'hy_o... | negative | -0.19289 | The actual 21-day forward return for BNB-USD starting 2019-06-20 was -19.29%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.19289,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.45852099999999996,
"annualized_vol": 0.758033,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20210913_0096 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"AVAX-USD"
] | 2021-09-13T00:00:00 | AVAX-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +422.1%, annualized vol 148.3%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: AVAX-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=11.35, end=59.26, cumulative_return=+422.1%, annualized_volatility=148.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 273.91, 'unemployment': 4.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21617.828, 't10y2y_spread': 1.12, 't10y3m_spread': 1.3, 'breakeven_10y': 2.4, 'hy_oa... | positive | 0.226881 | The actual 21-day forward return for AVAX-USD starting 2021-09-13 was +22.69%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.226881,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 4.221148,
"annualized_vol": 1.483238,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20180406_0099 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"ADA-USD"
] | 2018-04-06T00:00:00 | ADA-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -54.6%, annualized vol 108.2%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: ADA-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=0.33, end=0.15, cumulative_return=-54.6%, annualized_volatility=108.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.69, 'cpi_yoy': 250.227, 'unemployment': 4.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20150.476, 't10y2y_spread': 0.53, 't10y3m_spread': 1.11, 'breakeven_10y': 2.08, 'hy_oas... | positive | 0.997141 | The actual 21-day forward return for ADA-USD starting 2018-04-06 was +99.71%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.9971409999999999,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.545598,
"annualized_vol": 1.082303,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20160111_0102 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"XLE"
] | 2016-01-11T00:00:00 | XLE over past 60 days: cumulative return -16.7%, annualized vol 27.9%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: XLE
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=22.28, end=18.55, cumulative_return=-16.7%, annualized_volatility=27.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.36, 'cpi_yoy': 237.652, 'unemployment': 4.8, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19001.69, 't10y2y_spread': 1.19, 't10y3m_spread': 1.93, 'breakeven_10y': 1.48, 'hy_oas': 7... | negative | -0.013856 | The actual 21-day forward return for XLE starting 2016-01-11 was -1.39%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.013855999999999999,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.16729000000000002,
"annualized_vol": 0.27940699999999996,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20150714_0107 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"USMV"
] | 2015-07-14T00:00:00 | USMV over past 60 days: cumulative return +1.5%, annualized vol 10.2%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: USMV
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=33.55, end=34.05, cumulative_return=+1.5%, annualized_volatility=10.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.13, 'cpi_yoy': 238.034, 'unemployment': 5.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 18857.418, 't10y2y_spread': 1.6623999999999977, 't10y3m_spread': 2.2947999999999955, 'brea... | positive | 0.014897 | The actual 21-day forward return for USMV starting 2015-07-14 was +1.49%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.014896999999999999,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.015110000000000002,
"annualized_vol": 0.101979,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20180402_0110 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"XLV"
] | 2018-04-02T00:00:00 | XLV over past 60 days: cumulative return -3.2%, annualized vol 18.9%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: XLV
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=73.42, end=71.05, cumulative_return=-3.2%, annualized_volatility=18.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.67, 'cpi_yoy': 250.227, 'unemployment': 4.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20150.476, 't10y2y_spread': 0.47, 't10y3m_spread': 1.01, 'breakeven_10y': 2.05, 'hy_oas': 3... | positive | 0.033564 | The actual 21-day forward return for XLV starting 2018-04-02 was +3.36%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.033564,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.032271,
"annualized_vol": 0.188794,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20180607_0113 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"BTC-USD"
] | 2018-06-07T00:00:00 | BTC-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +9.0%, annualized vol 55.0%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: BTC-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=7023.52, end=7653.98, cumulative_return=+9.0%, annualized_volatility=55.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.7, 'cpi_yoy': 251.018, 'unemployment': 4.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20150.476, 't10y2y_spread': 0.45, 't10y3m_spread': 1.02, 'breakeven_10y': 2.14, 'hy_... | negative | -0.231147 | The actual 21-day forward return for BTC-USD starting 2018-06-07 was -23.11%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.231147,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.089764,
"annualized_vol": 0.550122,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20171219_0116 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"EEM"
] | 2017-12-19T00:00:00 | EEM over past 60 days: cumulative return +4.7%, annualized vol 13.0%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: EEM
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=36.60, end=38.30, cumulative_return=+4.7%, annualized_volatility=13.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.42, 'cpi_yoy': 247.805, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19882.352, 't10y2y_spread': 0.55, 't10y3m_spread': 1.01, 'breakeven_10y': 1.89, 'hy_oas': 3... | positive | 0.102513 | The actual 21-day forward return for EEM starting 2017-12-19 was +10.25%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.10251299999999999,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.046626,
"annualized_vol": 0.130434,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20171218_0121 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"FXI"
] | 2017-12-18T00:00:00 | FXI over past 60 days: cumulative return +2.6%, annualized vol 18.7%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: FXI
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=36.16, end=37.11, cumulative_return=+2.6%, annualized_volatility=18.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.41, 'cpi_yoy': 247.805, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19882.352, 't10y2y_spread': 0.51, 't10y3m_spread': 1.04, 'breakeven_10y': 1.88, 'hy_oas': 3... | positive | 0.132782 | The actual 21-day forward return for FXI starting 2017-12-18 was +13.28%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.13278199999999998,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.026244999999999997,
"annualized_vol": 0.186523,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20191126_0124 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"XLV"
] | 2019-11-26T00:00:00 | XLV over past 60 days: cumulative return +10.8%, annualized vol 11.9%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: XLV
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=80.21, end=88.90, cumulative_return=+10.8%, annualized_volatility=11.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.55, 'cpi_yoy': 257.879, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20985.448, 't10y2y_spread': 0.15, 't10y3m_spread': 0.15, 'breakeven_10y': 1.62, 'hy_oas': ... | positive | 0.040632 | The actual 21-day forward return for XLV starting 2019-11-26 was +4.06%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.040632,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.10828099999999999,
"annualized_vol": 0.118861,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20170317_0129 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"QQQ"
] | 2017-03-17T00:00:00 | QQQ over past 60 days: cumulative return +9.9%, annualized vol 6.6%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: QQQ
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=112.80, end=123.99, cumulative_return=+9.9%, annualized_volatility=6.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.91, 'cpi_yoy': 243.892, 'unemployment': 4.4, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19398.343, 't10y2y_spread': 1.18, 't10y3m_spread': 1.8, 'breakeven_10y': 2.02, 'hy_oas': 3... | flat | -0.001595 | The actual 21-day forward return for QQQ starting 2017-03-17 was -0.16%, which classifies as 'flat'. | {
"future_return": -0.0015949999999999998,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.099259,
"annualized_vol": 0.066396,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20160823_0132 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"EWJ"
] | 2016-08-23T00:00:00 | EWJ over past 60 days: cumulative return +6.6%, annualized vol 15.8%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: EWJ
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=38.26, end=40.77, cumulative_return=+6.6%, annualized_volatility=15.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.4, 'cpi_yoy': 240.545, 'unemployment': 4.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19197.938, 't10y2y_spread': 0.79, 't10y3m_spread': 1.26, 'breakeven_10y': 1.47, 'hy_oas': 5.... | positive | 0.035541 | The actual 21-day forward return for EWJ starting 2016-08-23 was +3.55%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.035540999999999996,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.065594,
"annualized_vol": 0.15839699999999998,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20181121_0137 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"EMB"
] | 2018-11-21T00:00:00 | EMB over past 60 days: cumulative return -2.2%, annualized vol 5.4%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: EMB
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=73.39, end=71.81, cumulative_return=-2.2%, annualized_volatility=5.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.2, 'cpi_yoy': 252.594, 'unemployment': 3.8, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20304.874, 't10y2y_spread': 0.27, 't10y3m_spread': 0.67, 'breakeven_10y': 1.97, 'hy_oas': 4.3... | positive | 0.016817 | The actual 21-day forward return for EMB starting 2018-11-21 was +1.68%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.016817,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.021557,
"annualized_vol": 0.053808999999999996,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20201021_0140 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"BNB-USD"
] | 2020-10-21T00:00:00 | BNB-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +29.5%, annualized vol 87.9%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: BNB-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=22.24, end=28.80, cumulative_return=+29.5%, annualized_volatility=87.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.09, 'cpi_yoy': 260.319, 'unemployment': 6.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20791.917, 't10y2y_spread': 0.67, 't10y3m_spread': 0.71, 'breakeven_10y': 1.72, 'hy_oa... | negative | -0.061002 | The actual 21-day forward return for BNB-USD starting 2020-10-21 was -6.10%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.061002,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.295129,
"annualized_vol": 0.8788,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20200911_0143 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"IWM"
] | 2020-09-11T00:00:00 | IWM over past 60 days: cumulative return +5.9%, annualized vol 22.1%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: IWM
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=132.16, end=139.98, cumulative_return=+5.9%, annualized_volatility=22.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.09, 'cpi_yoy': 259.997, 'unemployment': 7.8, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20558.879, 't10y2y_spread': 0.54, 't10y3m_spread': 0.56, 'breakeven_10y': 1.69, 'hy_oas':... | positive | 0.102342 | The actual 21-day forward return for IWM starting 2020-09-11 was +10.23%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.10234199999999999,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.05911,
"annualized_vol": 0.220905,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20211022_0146 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"XLY"
] | 2021-10-22T00:00:00 | XLY over past 60 days: cumulative return +5.2%, annualized vol 14.5%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: XLY
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=88.57, end=93.14, cumulative_return=+5.2%, annualized_volatility=14.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 276.55, 'unemployment': 4.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21988.737, 't10y2y_spread': 1.23, 't10y3m_spread': 1.62, 'breakeven_10y': 2.64, 'hy_oas': 3.... | positive | 0.094111 | The actual 21-day forward return for XLY starting 2021-10-22 was +9.41%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.094111,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.051620000000000006,
"annualized_vol": 0.144775,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20201110_0151 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"ACWI"
] | 2020-11-10T00:00:00 | ACWI over past 60 days: cumulative return +5.4%, annualized vol 18.6%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: ACWI
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=73.41, end=77.40, cumulative_return=+5.4%, annualized_volatility=18.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.09, 'cpi_yoy': 260.911, 'unemployment': 6.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20791.917, 't10y2y_spread': 0.79, 't10y3m_spread': 0.85, 'breakeven_10y': 1.73, 'hy_oas': ... | positive | 0.050659 | The actual 21-day forward return for ACWI starting 2020-11-10 was +5.07%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.050658999999999996,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.054359,
"annualized_vol": 0.185646,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20201229_0154 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"ACWI"
] | 2020-12-29T00:00:00 | ACWI over past 60 days: cumulative return +13.7%, annualized vol 15.4%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: ACWI
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=72.64, end=82.61, cumulative_return=+13.7%, annualized_volatility=15.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.09, 'cpi_yoy': 262.045, 'unemployment': 6.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20791.917, 't10y2y_spread': 0.81, 't10y3m_spread': 0.83, 'breakeven_10y': 1.97, 'hy_oas':... | flat | 0.000886 | The actual 21-day forward return for ACWI starting 2020-12-29 was +0.09%, which classifies as 'flat'. | {
"future_return": 0.000886,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.13727,
"annualized_vol": 0.154156,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20201117_0159 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"MTUM"
] | 2020-11-17T00:00:00 | MTUM over past 60 days: cumulative return +3.0%, annualized vol 25.6%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: MTUM
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=138.55, end=142.73, cumulative_return=+3.0%, annualized_volatility=25.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.09, 'cpi_yoy': 260.911, 'unemployment': 6.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20791.917, 't10y2y_spread': 0.72, 't10y3m_spread': 0.82, 'breakeven_10y': 1.72, 'hy_oas'... | positive | 0.068938 | The actual 21-day forward return for MTUM starting 2020-11-17 was +6.89%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.068938,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.030164999999999997,
"annualized_vol": 0.25571699999999997,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20150916_0162 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"EMB"
] | 2015-09-16T00:00:00 | EMB over past 60 days: cumulative return -1.2%, annualized vol 5.9%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: EMB
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=65.67, end=64.85, cumulative_return=-1.2%, annualized_volatility=5.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.14, 'cpi_yoy': 237.498, 'unemployment': 5.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 18857.418, 't10y2y_spread': 1.46, 't10y3m_spread': 2.21, 'breakeven_10y': 1.56, 'hy_oas': 5.... | positive | 0.0114 | The actual 21-day forward return for EMB starting 2015-09-16 was +1.14%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.0114,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.012445999999999999,
"annualized_vol": 0.058850000000000006,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20190312_0165 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"BNB-USD"
] | 2019-03-12T00:00:00 | BNB-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +138.9%, annualized vol 80.8%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: BNB-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=6.08, end=14.51, cumulative_return=+138.9%, annualized_volatility=80.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.4, 'cpi_yoy': 254.277, 'unemployment': 3.8, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20431.641, 't10y2y_spread': 0.17, 't10y3m_spread': 0.18, 'breakeven_10y': 1.91, 'hy_oas... | positive | 0.284539 | The actual 21-day forward return for BNB-USD starting 2019-03-12 was +28.45%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.284539,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 1.389069,
"annualized_vol": 0.8079400000000001,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20190819_0172 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"BIL"
] | 2019-08-19T00:00:00 | BIL over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.3%, annualized vol 0.2%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: BIL
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=76.76, end=77.01, cumulative_return=+0.3%, annualized_volatility=0.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.13, 'cpi_yoy': 256.036, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20843.322, 't10y2y_spread': 0.07, 't10y3m_spread': -0.32, 'breakeven_10y': 1.54, 'hy_oas': 4... | flat | 0.000961 | The actual 21-day forward return for BIL starting 2019-08-19 was +0.10%, which classifies as 'flat'. | {
"future_return": 0.0009609999999999999,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.003284,
"annualized_vol": 0.002183,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20181004_0175 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"IVV"
] | 2018-10-04T00:00:00 | IVV over past 60 days: cumulative return +5.9%, annualized vol 6.8%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: IVV
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=245.77, end=260.31, cumulative_return=+5.9%, annualized_volatility=6.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.18, 'cpi_yoy': 252.772, 'unemployment': 3.8, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20304.874, 't10y2y_spread': 0.3, 't10y3m_spread': 0.92, 'breakeven_10y': 2.16, 'hy_oas': 3... | negative | -0.061185 | The actual 21-day forward return for IVV starting 2018-10-04 was -6.12%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.061184999999999996,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.059164999999999995,
"annualized_vol": 0.06809699999999999,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20220707_0178 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"XLF"
] | 2022-07-07T00:00:00 | XLF over past 60 days: cumulative return -15.9%, annualized vol 26.9%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: XLF
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=35.32, end=29.70, cumulative_return=-15.9%, annualized_volatility=26.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.58, 'cpi_yoy': 294.913, 'unemployment': 3.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22125.625, 't10y2y_spread': -0.04, 't10y3m_spread': 1.03, 'breakeven_10y': 2.29, 'hy_oas':... | positive | 0.0479 | The actual 21-day forward return for XLF starting 2022-07-07 was +4.79%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.047900000000000005,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.15917299999999998,
"annualized_vol": 0.268517,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20210914_0185 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"MATIC-USD"
] | 2021-09-14T00:00:00 | MATIC-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +53.5%, annualized vol 118.1%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: MATIC-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=0.81, end=1.25, cumulative_return=+53.5%, annualized_volatility=118.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 273.91, 'unemployment': 4.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21617.828, 't10y2y_spread': 1.12, 't10y3m_spread': 1.27, 'breakeven_10y': 2.37, 'hy_oa... | flat | -0.001706 | The actual 21-day forward return for MATIC-USD starting 2021-09-14 was -0.17%, which classifies as 'flat'. | {
"future_return": -0.0017059999999999998,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.535305,
"annualized_vol": 1.180871,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20181126_0187 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"BNDX"
] | 2018-11-26T00:00:00 | BNDX over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.1%, annualized vol 1.6%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: BNDX
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=42.41, end=42.46, cumulative_return=+0.1%, annualized_volatility=1.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.2, 'cpi_yoy': 252.594, 'unemployment': 3.8, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20304.874, 't10y2y_spread': 0.24, 't10y3m_spread': 0.64, 'breakeven_10y': 1.96, 'hy_oas': 4.... | positive | 0.010396 | The actual 21-day forward return for BNDX starting 2018-11-26 was +1.04%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.010395999999999999,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.0011769999999999999,
"annualized_vol": 0.015612,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20170615_0190 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"EWJ"
] | 2017-06-15T00:00:00 | EWJ over past 60 days: cumulative return +6.0%, annualized vol 8.3%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: EWJ
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=42.88, end=45.46, cumulative_return=+6.0%, annualized_volatility=8.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.91, 'cpi_yoy': 244.163, 'unemployment': 4.3, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19506.949, 't10y2y_spread': 0.8, 't10y3m_spread': 1.14, 'breakeven_10y': 1.71, 'hy_oas': 3.7... | flat | -0.000457 | The actual 21-day forward return for EWJ starting 2017-06-15 was -0.05%, which classifies as 'flat'. | {
"future_return": -0.000457,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.060070000000000005,
"annualized_vol": 0.08287000000000001,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20220110_0193 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"MORT"
] | 2022-01-10T00:00:00 | MORT over past 60 days: cumulative return -3.7%, annualized vol 18.9%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: MORT
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=11.34, end=10.92, cumulative_return=-3.7%, annualized_volatility=18.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 282.543, 'unemployment': 4.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21932.71, 't10y2y_spread': 0.89, 't10y3m_spread': 1.66, 'breakeven_10y': 2.48, 'hy_oas': 3... | negative | -0.045654 | The actual 21-day forward return for MORT starting 2022-01-10 was -4.57%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.045654,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.037132,
"annualized_vol": 0.18878399999999998,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20220117_0196 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"IVV"
] | 2022-01-17T00:00:00 | IVV over past 60 days: cumulative return +2.8%, annualized vol 14.2%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: IVV
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=427.22, end=439.23, cumulative_return=+2.8%, annualized_volatility=14.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 282.543, 'unemployment': 4.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21932.71, 't10y2y_spread': 0.79, 't10y3m_spread': 1.65, 'breakeven_10y': 2.44, 'hy_oas': ... | negative | -0.021789 | The actual 21-day forward return for IVV starting 2022-01-17 was -2.18%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.021789,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.028114,
"annualized_vol": 0.141917,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20210316_0201 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"BNB-USD"
] | 2021-03-16T00:00:00 | BNB-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +522.4%, annualized vol 162.2%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: BNB-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=40.92, end=254.66, cumulative_return=+522.4%, annualized_volatility=162.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.07, 'cpi_yoy': 264.961, 'unemployment': 6.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21082.134, 't10y2y_spread': 1.48, 't10y3m_spread': 1.58, 'breakeven_10y': 2.27, 'hy... | positive | 0.563695 | The actual 21-day forward return for BNB-USD starting 2021-03-16 was +56.37%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.563695,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 5.223538,
"annualized_vol": 1.6217169999999999,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20191203_0203 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"BTC-USD"
] | 2019-12-03T00:00:00 | BTC-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -10.8%, annualized vol 47.0%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: BTC-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=8205.94, end=7321.99, cumulative_return=-10.8%, annualized_volatility=47.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.56, 'cpi_yoy': 258.63, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20985.448, 't10y2y_spread': 0.22, 't10y3m_spread': 0.23, 'breakeven_10y': 1.65, 'hy... | flat | 0.000326 | The actual 21-day forward return for BTC-USD starting 2019-12-03 was +0.03%, which classifies as 'flat'. | {
"future_return": 0.000326,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.107721,
"annualized_vol": 0.46973000000000004,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20201006_0208 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"SHV"
] | 2020-10-06T00:00:00 | SHV over past 60 days: cumulative return -0.0%, annualized vol 0.1%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: SHV
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=94.10, end=94.09, cumulative_return=-0.0%, annualized_volatility=0.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.09, 'cpi_yoy': 260.319, 'unemployment': 6.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20791.917, 't10y2y_spread': 0.64, 't10y3m_spread': 0.68, 'breakeven_10y': 1.68, 'hy_oas': 5.... | flat | -0.000027 | The actual 21-day forward return for SHV starting 2020-10-06 was -0.00%, which classifies as 'flat'. | {
"future_return": -0.000027,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.000063,
"annualized_vol": 0.000883,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20191114_0211 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"VEA"
] | 2019-11-14T00:00:00 | VEA over past 60 days: cumulative return +8.3%, annualized vol 9.9%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: VEA
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=32.55, end=35.24, cumulative_return=+8.3%, annualized_volatility=9.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.55, 'cpi_yoy': 257.879, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20985.448, 't10y2y_spread': 0.25, 't10y3m_spread': 0.31, 'breakeven_10y': 1.66, 'hy_oas': 4.... | positive | 0.025665 | The actual 21-day forward return for VEA starting 2019-11-14 was +2.57%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.025665,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.082915,
"annualized_vol": 0.098623,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20190826_0214 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"IGOV"
] | 2019-08-26T00:00:00 | IGOV over past 60 days: cumulative return +3.2%, annualized vol 6.2%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: IGOV
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=48.46, end=50.01, cumulative_return=+3.2%, annualized_volatility=6.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.12, 'cpi_yoy': 256.036, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20843.322, 't10y2y_spread': 0.01, 't10y3m_spread': -0.45, 'breakeven_10y': 1.54, 'hy_oas': ... | flat | -0.008395 | The actual 21-day forward return for IGOV starting 2019-08-26 was -0.84%, which classifies as 'flat'. | {
"future_return": -0.008395,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.032135,
"annualized_vol": 0.0618,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20170104_0219 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"ACWI"
] | 2017-01-04T00:00:00 | ACWI over past 60 days: cumulative return +2.4%, annualized vol 9.1%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: ACWI
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=49.14, end=50.33, cumulative_return=+2.4%, annualized_volatility=9.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.66, 'cpi_yoy': 243.618, 'unemployment': 4.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19398.343, 't10y2y_spread': 1.23, 't10y3m_spread': 1.92, 'breakeven_10y': 1.98, 'hy_oas': 4... | positive | 0.02012 | The actual 21-day forward return for ACWI starting 2017-01-04 was +2.01%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.020120000000000002,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.024227,
"annualized_vol": 0.09081,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20161010_0222 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"BTC-USD"
] | 2016-10-10T00:00:00 | BTC-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.0%, annualized vol 15.8%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: BTC-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=3599.77, end=3599.77, cumulative_return=+0.0%, annualized_volatility=15.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.4, 'cpi_yoy': 241.741, 'unemployment': 4.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19304.352, 't10y2y_spread': 0.9, 't10y3m_spread': 1.4, 'breakeven_10y': 1.63, 'hy_oa... | flat | 0 | The actual 21-day forward return for BTC-USD starting 2016-10-10 was +0.00%, which classifies as 'flat'. | {
"future_return": 0,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0,
"annualized_vol": 0.15798199999999998,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20150622_0227 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"EEM"
] | 2015-06-22T00:00:00 | EEM over past 60 days: cumulative return +1.8%, annualized vol 14.6%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: EEM
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=30.81, end=31.37, cumulative_return=+1.8%, annualized_volatility=14.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.13, 'cpi_yoy': 237.657, 'unemployment': 5.3, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 18782.243, 't10y2y_spread': 1.61, 't10y3m_spread': 2.25, 'breakeven_10y': 1.86, 'hy_oas': 4... | negative | -0.058746 | The actual 21-day forward return for EEM starting 2015-06-22 was -5.87%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.058746,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.018043999999999998,
"annualized_vol": 0.145845,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20150901_0230 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"BNDX"
] | 2015-09-01T00:00:00 | BNDX over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.3%, annualized vol 3.7%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: BNDX
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=38.39, end=38.52, cumulative_return=+0.3%, annualized_volatility=3.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 238.033, 'unemployment': 5.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 18857.418, 't10y2y_spread': 1.47, 't10y3m_spread': 2.13, 'breakeven_10y': 1.63, 'hy_oas': 5... | flat | 0.005509 | The actual 21-day forward return for BNDX starting 2015-09-01 was +0.55%, which classifies as 'flat'. | {
"future_return": 0.005509,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.003284,
"annualized_vol": 0.037052999999999996,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20200819_0233 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"LINK-USD"
] | 2020-08-19T00:00:00 | LINK-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +289.4%, annualized vol 102.4%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: LINK-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=4.17, end=16.24, cumulative_return=+289.4%, annualized_volatility=102.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.09, 'cpi_yoy': 259.316, 'unemployment': 8.4, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20558.879, 't10y2y_spread': 0.53, 't10y3m_spread': 0.58, 'breakeven_10y': 1.68, 'hy_... | negative | -0.237851 | The actual 21-day forward return for LINK-USD starting 2020-08-19 was -23.79%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.23785099999999998,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 2.894095,
"annualized_vol": 1.023739,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20211015_0236 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"XLRE"
] | 2021-10-15T00:00:00 | XLRE over past 60 days: cumulative return +1.3%, annualized vol 13.1%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: XLRE
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=39.14, end=39.63, cumulative_return=+1.3%, annualized_volatility=13.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 276.55, 'unemployment': 4.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21988.737, 't10y2y_spread': 1.16, 't10y3m_spread': 1.47, 'breakeven_10y': 2.52, 'hy_oas': 3... | positive | 0.048918 | The actual 21-day forward return for XLRE starting 2021-10-15 was +4.89%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.048917999999999996,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.012619,
"annualized_vol": 0.130958,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20211018_0239 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"DBB"
] | 2021-10-18T00:00:00 | DBB over past 60 days: cumulative return +17.4%, annualized vol 18.2%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: DBB
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=17.44, end=20.48, cumulative_return=+17.4%, annualized_volatility=18.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.08, 'cpi_yoy': 276.55, 'unemployment': 4.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21988.737, 't10y2y_spread': 1.18, 't10y3m_spread': 1.54, 'breakeven_10y': 2.56, 'hy_oas': 3... | negative | -0.119017 | The actual 21-day forward return for DBB starting 2021-10-18 was -11.90%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.119017,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.173785,
"annualized_vol": 0.18156000000000003,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20190104_0246 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"XLY"
] | 2019-01-04T00:00:00 | XLY over past 60 days: cumulative return -12.9%, annualized vol 27.4%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: XLY
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=52.42, end=45.64, cumulative_return=-12.9%, annualized_volatility=27.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 2.4, 'cpi_yoy': 252.561, 'unemployment': 4.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20431.641, 't10y2y_spread': 0.17, 't10y3m_spread': 0.15, 'breakeven_10y': 1.68, 'hy_oas': 5... | positive | 0.070019 | The actual 21-day forward return for XLY starting 2019-01-04 was +7.00%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.070019,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.129276,
"annualized_vol": 0.273958,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20221028_0250 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"ADA-USD"
] | 2022-10-28T00:00:00 | ADA-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -13.8%, annualized vol 52.0%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: ADA-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=0.45, end=0.39, cumulative_return=-13.8%, annualized_volatility=52.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 3.08, 'cpi_yoy': 298.007, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22278.345, 't10y2y_spread': -0.34, 't10y3m_spread': -0.17, 'breakeven_10y': 2.45, 'hy_oa... | negative | -0.193534 | The actual 21-day forward return for ADA-USD starting 2022-10-28 was -19.35%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.19353399999999998,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.137576,
"annualized_vol": 0.519875,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 20
} |
T1_all_20191224_0255 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"FXI"
] | 2019-12-24T00:00:00 | FXI over past 60 days: cumulative return +10.2%, annualized vol 14.8%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: FXI
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=34.07, end=37.54, cumulative_return=+10.2%, annualized_volatility=14.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.55, 'cpi_yoy': 258.63, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20985.448, 't10y2y_spread': 0.29, 't10y3m_spread': 0.34, 'breakeven_10y': 1.75, 'hy_oas': 3... | negative | -0.017857 | The actual 21-day forward return for FXI starting 2019-12-24 was -1.79%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.017856999999999998,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.10178799999999999,
"annualized_vol": 0.14840599999999998,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20200729_0258 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"VEA"
] | 2020-07-29T00:00:00 | VEA over past 60 days: cumulative return +17.2%, annualized vol 19.0%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: VEA
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=29.11, end=34.12, cumulative_return=+17.2%, annualized_volatility=19.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.1, 'cpi_yoy': 258.352, 'unemployment': 10.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 20558.879, 't10y2y_spread': 0.45, 't10y3m_spread': 0.48, 'breakeven_10y': 1.51, 'hy_oas': ... | positive | 0.017497 | The actual 21-day forward return for VEA starting 2020-07-29 was +1.75%, which classifies as 'positive'. | {
"future_return": 0.017497,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.172035,
"annualized_vol": 0.19007000000000002,
"has_text": true,
"text_chars": 3020
} |
T1_all_20210705_0261 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"DOT-USD"
] | 2021-07-05T00:00:00 | DOT-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -61.4%, annualized vol 151.4%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: DOT-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=41.53, end=16.01, cumulative_return=-61.4%, annualized_volatility=151.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 0.1, 'cpi_yoy': 271.903, 'unemployment': 5.4, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 21617.828, 't10y2y_spread': 1.2, 't10y3m_spread': 1.39, 'breakeven_10y': 2.33, 'hy_oas... | negative | -0.084268 | The actual 21-day forward return for DOT-USD starting 2021-07-05 was -8.43%, which classifies as 'negative'. | {
"future_return": -0.084268,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": -0.614431,
"annualized_vol": 1.514449,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
T1_all_20171201_0265 | T1 | 1 | train | sideways | all | [
"ICSH"
] | 2017-12-01T00:00:00 | ICSH over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.1%, annualized vol 0.4%. Market regime: sideways. | Asset: ICSH
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=39.38, end=39.44, cumulative_return=+0.1%, annualized_volatility=0.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 1.07, 'cpi_yoy': 247.284, 'unemployment': 4.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 19882.352, 't10y2y_spread': 0.64, 't10y3m_spread': 1.15, 'breakeven_10y': 1.86, 'hy_oas': 3... | flat | 0.00082 | The actual 21-day forward return for ICSH starting 2017-12-01 was +0.08%, which classifies as 'flat'. | {
"future_return": 0.0008200000000000001,
"horizon_days": 21,
"hist_return": 0.001499,
"annualized_vol": 0.004372,
"has_text": false,
"text_chars": 0
} |
6,269 structured question-answer pairs probing correlation-based financial reasoning for multi-asset portfolio management, generated from the PortBench Market Base Dataset.
| Template | Task | Complexity | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | Return prediction — direction for next N days | 1 (single asset) | 1,000 |
| T2 | Risk assessment — VaR at given confidence level | 1 | 1,000 |
| T3 | Position sizing — given max drawdown constraint | 1 | 1,000 |
| T4 | Pairwise allocation — minimize variance for 2 assets | 2 (pairwise) | 1,000 |
| T5 | Multi-asset optimization — maximize Sharpe for 3+ assets | 3 (multi-asset) | 1,000 |
| T6 | Rebalancing decision — threshold-based trigger | 3 | 778 |
| T7 | Regime detection — identify bull/bear/sideways + adjust allocation | 4 (full portfolio) | 491 |
| Split | Period | Pairs |
|---|---|---|
| Train | 2015-01-02 – 2022-12-31 | 1,941 |
| Val | 2023-01-01 – 2024-12-31 | 2,700 |
| Test | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 | 1,628 |
Each JSONL record contains:
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
id |
string | Unique identifier ({template}_{class}_{date}_{seq}) |
template |
string | Task template (T1–T7) |
complexity |
int | Difficulty level (1–4) |
split |
string | train / val / test |
market_regime |
string | bull / bear / sideways / crisis |
asset_class |
string | Target asset class |
assets |
list[string] | Ticker symbols involved |
decision_date |
string | Point-in-time decision date (YYYY-MM-DD) |
context_summary |
string | Market context window (prices, macro, correlations, news) |
question |
string | The question with all necessary numerical context |
answer |
string | Ground-truth answer |
answer_numeric |
float | Numeric ground-truth (for scoring) |
explanation |
string | Step-by-step explanation of the answer |
metadata |
object | Additional fields (future_return, horizon, volatility, text coverage, etc.) |
{
"id": "T1_all_20251226_0002",
"template": "T1",
"complexity": 1,
"split": "test",
"market_regime": "sideways",
"assets": ["DBB"],
"decision_date": "2025-12-26",
"question": "Asset: DBB\nHistorical prices (past 60 trading days): start=20.40, end=22.01, cumulative_return=+7.9%, annualized_volatility=14.0%\n...\nPredict whether the return of DBB over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).",
"answer": "flat",
"answer_numeric": 0.0,
"explanation": "The actual 21-day forward return for DBB starting 2025-12-26 was +0.00%, which classifies as 'flat'."
}
85.3% of QA pairs include associated news text in the context window (avg 3,997 chars).
QA pairs are stratified by market regime (bull/bear/sideways/crisis) to enable per-regime performance decomposition.
All questions use only information available at or before the decision_date. Ground-truth answers are computed from realized future data that is never included in the question or context.