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How many tests will it take on a list of tokens that is on this list of tokens?
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ここでいうトークンは意味を持ったサブストリングです
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And here a token is a substring with a decisive meaning.
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実際に確かめることもできますし予測もできますね
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You can try this out for yourself or just estimate.
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4回?
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As we begin our journey into the world of economics,
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最も有名な引用で始めましょう。
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I thought I would begin with a quote from one of the most famous economists of all time, the Scottish philosopher Adam Smith.
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スコットランドのAdam Smithという哲学者の言葉です。 今日、彼は、
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And he really is kind of the first real economist in the way that we view it now.
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最初の経済学者として見なされています。 これは、The Wealth of Nationsという
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And this is from his The Wealth of Nations, published in 1776, coincidentally, the same year as the American Declaration of Independence, and it's one of his most-famous excerpts.
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1776年、アメリカの独立宣言と同じ年に、 書かれた本です。 "経済に関わる人は、公共の利益を促進する意図はなく、
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He generally indeed, he being an economic actor, neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it.
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また、どのようにそれに関与しているか気づかずにいる。 企業を経営するにおいて、そのような状態で、個人によって
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By directing that industry, so that the industry in control of that individual actor in such a manner, as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain.
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経営される企業は、個人の利益のみを最大化するように 経営される。" 個人の利益のみを意図する。
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'He intends only his own gain'.
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"このような個人は、多くの場合、
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And he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention.
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未知の手によって、彼が意図しないことを促進する。" この未知の手は有名なものです。
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And this term "the invisible hand" is famous.
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"未知の手によって、意図しないことを促進する。"
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Led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention.
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これは、個人は、個々の利益のみを意図するが、
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He is saying, look, when individual actors just act in their own self-interest, that often in aggregate leads to things that each of those individual actors did not intend.
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それらの個人の集団は個々が意図しないことを促進すると 言う意味です。 彼が言うには、それは、必ずしも
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Then he says: nor is it always the worst for society that it was no part of it.
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悪いことではない。 必ず、公共に悪害を与えるものではない。
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So, it was not necessarily a bad thing.
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個人の利益を求めることにより、
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By pursuing his own interest, he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it.
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思いがけず、社会に貢献するものである。 これは、非常に強い意見です。
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So, this is really a pretty strong statement.
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これは、資本主義の基礎と言えます。
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It's really at the core of capitalism.
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だから、これが、アメリカの独立宣言と同じ年に
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But the United States, with its overall experience of an American, is at least as influenced by the work of Adam Smith, by this kind of foundational ideas of capitalism.
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資本主義の基本的な概念をとおし、 Adam Smithによって、影響されていると言えます。 同じ頃に起こったことです。
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And they just both happened to happen around the same time.
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この考えは、必ずしも直感的ではなく、
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But this idea is not always that intuitive.
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個人がその利益に応じ行動した際、
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Individual actors, by essentially pursuing their own self-interested ends might be doing more for society than than if any of them actually tried to promote the overall well-being of society.
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意図した以上に、公共の利益に寄与することがあるとされます。 彼は、個人がその利益にのみを追求して行動することを 推薦しているのではありません。
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Could lead to more innovation.
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よりよい投資とか、製造効率とか、また、
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Could lead to better investment. Could lead to more productivity.
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社会全体の利益につながりえると言っています。
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COuld lead to more wealth, more, a larger pie for everyone.
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彼は、経済学を語るに
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And now Economics is frequently .. and when he makes a statement, he is actually making a mix of micro-economic and macro-economic statements.
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マクロ経済とマイクロ経済学を混ぜています。 マイクロは、個人が、個々の利益に応じ、行動することで、
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Micro is that people, individual actors are acting out of their own self-interest.
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マクロは、社会全体の経済を扱います。
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And the macro is that it might be good for the economy, or the nation as a whole.
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近代の経済学ではこれらは2つに分けられています。
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And so, now, modern economists tend to divide themselves into these two schools, or into these two subjects: microeconomics, which is the study of individual actors.
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マイクロ経済学は、個人の経済行為の研究で 個々での個人は、個々の会社や、家庭をも意味します。
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Microeconomics .. and those actors could be firms, could be people, it could be households.
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マクロ経済学は、集団の経済です。
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And you have macro-economics, which is the study of the economy in aggregate.
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言葉からも分かるように
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Macro-economics. And you get it from the words.
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マイクロは小さく、マクロは大きい、または、
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Micro -- the prefix refers to very small things. Macro refers to the larger, to the bigger picture.
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より広いものです。
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And so, micro-economics is essentially how actors .. actors make decisions or, you could actually say 'allocations', allocations .. decisions or allocations.
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個人が、どのように限りのある資源を 利用するかを決めるかを扱います。
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Allocation .. of scarce resources.
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限りのある資源は、 経済学でよく使用される言葉です。
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And you hear the words scarce resources a lot when people talk about economics.
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限られた資源は、無限でない資源、
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And a scarce resource is one you don't have an infinite amount of.
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例えば、愛は無限にあり得ますが、
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For example, love might not be a scarce resource. You might have an infinite amount of love.
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食物、水、お金、時間、労働などは、限られた資源です。
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But a resource that would be scarce is something like food, or water, or money, or time, or labor.
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マイクロ経済は、個人がこれらの限られた資源を
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These are all scarce resources.
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そのように利用するかを考えます。
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And so microeconomics is how do people decide where to put those scarce resource, how do they decide where to deploy them.
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また、それが、どのように価格や市場等に 影響するかです。
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And how does that .. does that affect prices and markets, and whatever else.
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マクロ経済学は、集団としてどのように経済が 影響されるかです。
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Macro-economics is the study of what happens at the aggregate to an economy.
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多くの個人が集団としたときの経済を考えます。
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So, 'aggregate', what happens in aggregate to an economy, from the millions of individual actors.
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何百万もの個人が集団となった経済です。
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Aggregate economy. We now have millions of actors.
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これは、しばしば政策に焦点を置きます。
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And often focuses on policy-related questions.
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税金を引き上げたり、下げたりすると どのように経済に影響するかです。
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SO, do you raise or lower taxes. Or, what's going to happen when you raise or lower taxes.
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規制を強めたり、弱めたりすると、 製造効率にどのように影響するかです。
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Do you regulate or de-regulate? How does that affect the overall productivity when you do this.
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上からの政策の問題です。
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So, it's policy, top-down .. 'top-down' questions.
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近代の意味でのマイクロおよびマクロ経済学で、
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And in both macro- and micro-economics, there is especially in the modern sense of it, there is an attempt to make them rigorous, to make them mathematical.
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数学的に、これらを理解しようとする試みがなされています。 どちらの場合でも、哲学的な、論理的な考え
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So, in either case you could start with some of the ideas, some of the philosophical ideas, so of the logical ideas, to say someone like Adam Smith might have.
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例えば、Adam Smithの考えから発足します。 個人がどのように行動するか基礎的な考えがあれば、
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So, you have these basic ideas about how people think, how people make decisions.
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個人の哲学、または、決断の決め方が
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So, philosophy, 'philosophy' of people, of decision-making, in the case of micro-economics -- 'decision-making'
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マイクロ経済学では、決断の決め方です。 そして、ある仮定に基づいて、
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And then you make some assumptions about it.
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または、簡素化し、
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Or you simplify it .. let me write this .. you simplify it.
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たとえば、個人は皆、理にかなった行動をする、
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And you really are simplifying. You say "oh, all people are rational",
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すべての人が個人の利益を最大化するように 決断する、等の仮定です。
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"all people are gonna act in their own self-interest, or all people are going to maximize their gain", which isn't true -- human beings are motivated by a whole bunch of things.
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実際は、これは真実ではないです。 このように、簡素化し、数学的に扱います。
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We simplify things, so we can start to deal with it kind of a mathematical way.
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簡素化することにより、 数学的に扱えるようになります。
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SO you simplify it, so you can start dealing with it in a mathematical sense.
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これは、はっきりと理解するに有益なものです。
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So, this is valuable to clarify your thinking.
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仮定に基づいて、証明することが可能になります。
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It can allow you to prove things based on your assumptions.
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図やグラフで、可視化することが可能になり、
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And so, you can start to visualize things mathematically, with charts and graphs and think about what would actually happen with markets.
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市場で起こっていることが理解できるようになります。 このような数学的な考えは有益です。
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So it's very valuable to have this mathematical, rigorous, thinking.
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しかし、同時に、非常な簡素化により、
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But at the same time, it could be a little bit dangerous, because you are making these huge simplifications, and sometimes the math might lead you to some very strong conclusions.
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強固な結論に至る危険もあります。 強く信じる結論に行き当たった場合でも、
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So it's very very very important to take it all with a grain of salt, to remember that it's all based on some simplifying assumption.
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それを忘れないでいることが重要です。 マクロ経済学ではこのことは特に重要です。
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And macro-economics is probably more guilty of it.
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マイクロ経済学で、
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In micro-economics you are taking these deeply complicated things that are the human brain, how people act and respond to each other, and then you are aggregating it over millions of people, so it's ultra-complicated.
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他の個人とどのように交流するか、 そして、それが何百万と集まり、相互に 影響するのがマクロ経済なので、
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You've millions of these infinitely complicated people, all interacting with each other.
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より、複雑です。 何百万もの集まりでは、
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SO, it's very complicated.
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基礎的に、予測不可能な交流なので、 仮定を設定します。
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And, once again, this is very important.
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これらの数学的結論には、
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This is valuable, it is valuable to make these mathematical models, with these mathematical assumptions for these mathematical conclusions, but it always need to be taken with a grain of salt.
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必ず数学的仮定が設定されたことを忘れないように。 疑う心を維持し、かつ 実の洞察力を持っていることが大切です。
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So, then you have a proper grain of salt, so that you are always focused on the true intuition.
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それが、経済学の授業で習う最も大切な点です。
|
And that's really the most important thing to get from a course on economics.
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数学を使用しないでも
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So you can truly reason through what's likely to happen, maybe even without the mathematics.
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何が起こるか論理的に考えることもできます。 最後にいくつか引用句を紹介します。
|
I'll leave you with two quotes.
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覚えておくと、非常に役に立ちます。
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And thse quotes are a little bit .. a little bit funny, but they're really I think helpful things to keep in mind, especially when you go deep into the mathematical side of economics.
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特に経済学の数学を行う際に、覚えておきましょう。 1900代に、Aflred Knopfによって、
|
So, this right over here is a quote by Aflred Knopf, who was publisher in the 1900s.
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"経済学者は、理解不可能なこと中で、一目瞭然な点を示す学者である"
|
"An economist is a man who states the obvious in terms of the incomprehensible."
|
ここで、理解不可能と言っているのは、
|
And I'm assuming what he is talking about as the incomprehensible, he is referring to some of the 'mathy' stuff that you see in economics, and hopefully we're going to make this as comprehensible as possible.
|
経済学の中に見られる多くの数的要素でしょう。 これらをできるだけ理解可能にしたいものです。 いいですか?
|
You'll see there is value in this.
|
これは、重要な点です。
|
But it's a very important statement he is making.
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しばしば、常識です。
|
Oftentimes, it's taking a common-sense thing.
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それが、一目瞭然なことです。
|
It's taking something that's obvious .. that's obvious.
|
最も重要なことは、
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And then you have this quote here by Lawrence J. Peter, most famous for Peter's Principals, a professor at USC.
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Peterは、 USCの教授で、ピーター論理で有名で、彼曰く、 "経済学者は、昨日予測したことが今日起こらなかったことをs
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"An economist is an expert know will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today."
|
明日、理解する専門家である" 改めて、覚えておくことが大切です。
|
In fact, few economists even tend to agree on many of these things.
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分かると思います。
|
And it's very important to realize that, because oftentimes when you are deep in the mathematics, economics might seem to be a science, like physics, but it's not a science like physics.
|
数学では、経済学は一見、科学のように見えますが、 物理のような科学ではなく、主観的なもので、
|
It is open .. it is open to subjectivity, and a lot of that subjectivity is all around the assumptions that you choose to make.
|
設定する仮定によって、左右されます。
|
So welcome to the Lean Launchpad class.
|
レッスン0では講義の活用法を説明します
|
If you're interested in the logistics on how to take this class, this lecture zero will describe it.
|
不要な方はレッスン1から始めてください
|
But if you want to just get started, click on lecture one.
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お勧めの講義活用法は4とおりあります
|
So the good news is there's actually four ways to watch these lectures:
|
1番目の方法は UDACITYのディスカッション・フォーラムを通じて
|
So a good way is to kind of watch them and use the Udacity discussion forums to interact with other people watching these lectures.
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他の受講生と交流することです さらにいい方法は参考図書を読むことです
|
Something that's better is, these lectures are free and they don't really require any books or text.
|
受講に必須ではありませんが お薦めしたいのは次の2冊です
|
But let me emphasize again, these are not required, and you could understand the lectures just fine without them.
|
617ページ以上あるので 詳細を確認したい時には使えます
|
But they certainly help explain a lot of the detail in the 617 pages, because it's almost an encyclopedia for startups.
|
スタートアップの百科事典みたいなものです 本の宣伝はこれくらいにしておきます
|
Enough of the ad--that's the last time I'll mention buying the texts or books.
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3番目の活用法はかなりいい方法です
|
Almost best is to actually watch these
|
オフィスを飛び出して 仲間と共にスタートアップ・チームを結成し
|
lectures, but this time form a startup team and actually think about--instead of just sitting in your office or on your computer--actually be watching these as you start your company.
|
新しい会社を始めるつもりで受講するのです そして最高の活用法は
|
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