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cL5X38U3cc1Z8bymJJ5P | will-the-europa-clipper-mission-suc | Will the Europa Clipper mission successfully launch in October 2024? | null | 1,693,509,597,541 | 1,728,927,886,652 | 1,728,927,886,652 | YES | 0.99 | 4,476.17194 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
COypU6hUqI | will-gisele-pelicot-be-time-person | Will Gisèle Pelicot be Time Person of the Year 2024 (POTY)? | null | 1,732,624,033,017 | 1,733,755,184,572 | 1,733,755,184,572 | NO | 0.042416 | 2,241.214975 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
ahaC9QuvZ1G7sq4QIwRP | will-starship-launch-in-september-2 | Will Starship launch in September 2024 | null | 1,700,448,687,711 | 1,727,841,540,000 | 1,727,844,478,962 | NO | 0.01 | 27,649.534489 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
1Fry0tHzXLQ9zQFDnjNJ | will-be-another-company-hit-trillio | Will be another company hit trillion dollar Mkt CAP within the next 6 months? | null | 1,704,416,494,538 | 1,734,771,372,855 | 1,734,771,372,855 | YES | 0.979873 | 3,207.898457 | Finance | Corporate Finance |
92eabtx59d | were-the-tesla-optimus-robots-teleo | Were the Tesla Optimus robots teleoperated at We, Robot? | null | 1,728,622,076,597 | 1,729,095,544,647 | 1,729,095,544,647 | YES | 0.94 | 1,770.736112 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
ecyfuqljx8 | will-kamala-harris-flip-a-state--cash | Will Kamala Harris flip a state? | null | 1,726,769,565,603 | 1,730,955,540,000 | 1,731,050,096,100 | NO | 0.009871 | 7,117.839766 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
oKUgYkfuK0vLLyDJpSy2 | will-a-colorado-pass-a-ballot-measu | Will Colorado pass a ballot measure in 2024 to make primaries open and enact ranked-choice voting? | null | 1,703,046,205,543 | 1,730,938,020,891 | 1,730,938,020,891 | NO | 0.040652 | 1,113.476131 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
QjP2jypCHkU0vGNj5Pc7 | will-the-republican-party-win-the-2 | Will the Republican party win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? | null | 1,682,649,706,868 | 1,731,015,552,968 | 1,731,015,552,968 | YES | 0.99 | 12,887.088171 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
tu9ckud3o8 | will-israel-launch-air-strikes-with | Will Israel launch air strikes within 100 km of Tehran by the end of 2024? | null | 1,727,773,943,216 | 1,729,966,221,713 | 1,729,966,221,713 | YES | 0.99 | 10,619.318778 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
QAqY8xFxIep05iodAk60 | will-bitcoin-hit-90k-before-2031092 | Will bitcoin hit $90k before 2031-09-27? | null | 1,685,686,281,191 | 1,731,508,692,845 | 1,731,508,692,845 | YES | 0.990363 | 35,201.714724 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
gTd4KDcVMBS555fkCJYO | 2024-tippingpoint-state-in-the-rust | 2024 Tipping-point state in the Rust Belt? | null | 1,673,287,914,633 | 1,734,617,674,046 | 1,734,617,674,046 | YES | 0.970436 | 922.000027 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
TtN8tHqOwtZCe8kII5Wf | will-september-2024-yoy-housing-cpi | Will September 2024 YoY housing CPI exceed 3%? | null | 1,705,541,956,311 | 1,728,629,940,000 | 1,734,481,265,593 | YES | 0.99 | 745.25876 | Finance | Economic Indicators |
296ybaLp6xskH4pApIaQ | will-rfk-junior-reach-5-percent-of | Will RFK Junior reach 5 percent of the national Popular Vote? Current 538 polling average is 10.1 percent. | null | 1,714,440,288,975 | 1,730,864,400,000 | 1,731,437,555,270 | NO | 0.012363 | 20,835.471705 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
IR0BCwm3T3lWfJYO4xi1 | will-i-run-800km-this-year | Will I run 800km this year? | null | 1,708,419,196,698 | 1,730,264,174,973 | 1,730,264,174,973 | NO | 0.186404 | 2,369.743111 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
AQ1zshi5TUpomQLW8H3N | google-vs-apple-will-apple-yes-comp-7b2b678001a5 | Google vs. Apple: Will Apple (YES) company grow its workforce more in 2024 than Google (NO)? | null | 1,702,234,306,714 | 1,731,743,940,000 | 1,731,871,832,964 | YES | 0.967247 | 700.153812 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
DaV0m6SVc1mkaeZhHjNX | will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9ed8a22b73a8 | Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before Nov 2024? | null | 1,705,772,469,926 | 1,730,576,494,979 | 1,730,576,494,979 | NO | 0.008761 | 12,984.789227 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
knk8030f14 | will-tcb-scans-upload-chapter-1127 | Will TCB Scans upload chapter 1127 of One Piece on September 19th? | null | 1,726,144,236,681 | 1,726,815,540,000 | 1,726,901,628,763 | NO | 0.24 | 2,433.749401 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
wyg5ic1f5p | will-manifold-transform-the-site-in | Will Manifold transform the site in any way for Halloween? | null | 1,724,509,450,687 | 1,730,320,378,965 | 1,730,320,378,965 | YES | 0.989948 | 2,250.785044 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
O3MJBruUz5fnydYwsSxF | will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-aa9383599ef5 | Will any of the videos uploaded to Joe Rogan's YouTube channel in Sep 2024 surpass 2M views? | null | 1,707,191,770,709 | 1,727,372,006,666 | 1,727,372,006,666 | YES | 0.99 | 1,483.294592 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
iADlG4vTG9A04S93OnyU | will-there-be-another-terrorist-att | Will there be another terrorist attack that Russia blames on Ukraine in 2024, causing at least 100 deaths? | null | 1,714,842,226,623 | 1,735,682,340,000 | 1,735,687,610,674 | NO | 0.052352 | 5,128.653321 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
xNO1IRIP9cUZHiXBz7SU | will-the-next-leader-of-the-conserv-c7a6c0611e73 | Will the next leader of the Conservative Party be Suella Braverman? | null | 1,684,171,201,606 | 1,730,566,027,594 | 1,730,566,027,594 | NO | 0.010053 | 13,473.799813 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
33vrxtwhmo | will-the-l-a-dodgers-play-the-balti | Will the L. A. Dodgers play the Baltimore Orioles in the 2024 MLB World Series? | null | 1,721,765,410,172 | 1,727,961,563,000 | 1,727,961,563,000 | NO | 0.01 | 12,849.822117 | Sports | Professional Sports |
0fpWPuSGBcNsD9Mhan7N | will-a-republican-be-elected-to-the | Will a Republican be elected to the United States Senate in 2024 in any state that Joe Biden won in 2020? | null | 1,690,766,272,878 | 1,730,869,140,000 | 1,731,285,918,413 | YES | 0.391739 | 245.462816 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
C6ndR0ZScS | will-the-hawk-tuah-girls-podcast-ta-t0RpUAR6hA | Will the Hawk Tuah girl’s podcast (Talk Tuah with Hailey Welch) be in the Spotify Top 100 on Thanksgiving? | null | 1,730,471,433,970 | 1,732,867,140,000 | 1,735,683,490,214 | NO | 0.012558 | 968.336936 | Entertainment | Music & Audio |
L7P0PDv6wFpHGdnYswIz | will-iphone-16-be-a-foldable-phone | Will iPhone 16 be a foldable phone? | null | 1,679,682,954,671 | 1,731,555,770,613 | 1,731,555,770,613 | NO | 0.025159 | 2,256.771283 | Technology | Mobile & Consumer Electronics |
LhOrEf43G0i3wKKYCGF2 | will-strutheo-get-100000-traders-be | Will @strutheo get 100,000 traders in one life, before 2024 ends? | null | 1,713,152,259,755 | 1,733,717,772,617 | 1,733,717,772,617 | NO | 0.018649 | 11,408.925588 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
EFRNW3bUbE6L2UvTplTi | will-wikipedia-change-its-name-to-d-b45cc8c174e9 | Will Wikipedia change it's name to Dickipedia? | null | 1,698,075,048,210 | 1,729,742,340,000 | 1,729,787,634,378 | NO | 0.01 | 8,378.732314 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
88pb5u2cxk | will-kamala-harris-publicly-endorse | Will Kamala Harris publicly endorse raising the SALT deduction cap by Election Day 2024? | null | 1,726,751,654,046 | 1,730,869,140,000 | 1,730,869,275,160 | NO | 0.18508 | 110 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
2gLtClOPnn | will-the-sp-500-close-higher-on-fri-uhuR50yu6g | Will the S&P 500 close higher on Friday November 29th 2024 than it closed on Friday November 22nd 2024? | null | 1,732,300,768,556 | 1,732,890,600,000 | 1,732,930,294,590 | YES | 0.490477 | 55 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
Ku4PF7RMoyWDrYTZNYuX | will-there-be-interest-free-loans-o | Will there be interest free loans on manifold at any point before 2026? | null | 1,712,972,960,406 | 1,733,564,004,920 | 1,733,564,004,920 | YES | 0.992633 | 2,272.337934 | Finance | Personal Finance |
1Dr5MrkbH4qQErlfkXbS | will-real-money-political-predictio-b314527f7b80 | Will real money political prediction markets be legal in the US before the end of 2025? | null | 1,712,172,469,488 | 1,727,928,557,348 | 1,727,928,557,348 | YES | 0.99 | 3,182.027148 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
jbzEG4B7RiE9414V2nu7 | will-ameya-run-a-mile-in-60000-or-f | Will Ameya run a mile in 6:00.00 or faster before Jan 1, 2025 | null | 1,713,458,145,143 | 1,732,156,752,989 | 1,732,156,752,989 | YES | 0.99 | 2,582.035083 | Sports | Individual Sports |
1oZOuWU0Zcb9EwOz0RpT | will-the-federal-reserve-raise-inte-dd921dcf545a | Will the federal reserve raise interest rates at any time from March to November of '24? | null | 1,710,128,771,613 | 1,733,032,740,000 | 1,733,061,210,224 | NO | 0.012466 | 2,722.932628 | Finance | Economic Indicators |
1uRYBoEKL76tkzuCJJrb | will-missouri-legalize-abortion-in | Will Missouri legalize abortion in the 2024 election? | null | 1,706,155,197,587 | 1,730,872,740,000 | 1,730,900,720,940 | YES | 0.779128 | 672.175922 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
x8408rev6b | will-a-finetuned-opensource-model-u | Will a “good” (fine-tuned) opensource model utilizing chain-of-thought reasoning like o1 be released by EOY 2024? | null | 1,726,245,826,515 | 1,734,705,420,896 | 1,734,705,426,471 | YES | 0.870292 | 4,804.433385 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
2wdjvpx9fv | will-twitter-x-remove-likes-or-retw | Will Twitter/X.com remove Likes OR Retweets counts on posts from public view by the end of September? | null | 1,719,970,310,552 | 1,727,841,540,000 | 1,727,885,638,370 | NO | 0.01 | 1,429.458971 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
efAYUzzePhyfcdaXGVXv | will-gop-win-ohio-in-the-2024-us-pr | Will GOP win Ohio in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | null | 1,705,764,852,813 | 1,730,988,994,361 | 1,730,988,994,361 | YES | 0.983263 | 1,133.148271 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
I6g7erM0wSH2X2hrcpOL | will-a-democrat-win-north-carolina-4e960bb4fc91 | Will a Democrat win North Carolina in the 2024 POTUS election? | null | 1,686,273,680,559 | 1,730,902,483,683 | 1,730,902,483,683 | NO | 0.01 | 2,506.082147 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
8lxY5qUyN0PtOTITTCdf | will-kizaru-betray-the-world-govern | Will Kizaru betray the world government during the Egghead Island Arc? | null | 1,701,300,566,685 | 1,732,312,078,860 | 1,732,312,078,860 | NO | 0.018217 | 603.886095 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
ANgOvg9egaJEFZignpWg | will-joe-biden-and-dalai-lama-meet | Will Joe Biden and Dalai Lama meet in person in year 2024? | null | 1,706,413,073,731 | 1,735,621,196,395 | 1,735,665,556,901 | NO | 0.030577 | 648 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
NtkK22jsiNGPzVWCRF2e | nfl-week-7-oct-20-will-the-buffalo | NFL Week 7 (Oct 20): Will the Buffalo Bills beat the Tennessee Titans? | null | 1,715,834,053,419 | 1,729,616,400,000 | 1,729,617,786,639 | YES | 0.99 | 963.595048 | Sports | Professional Sports |
clOkd1NrKzQN5guM9nLj | will-jjk-end-in-2024 | Will JJK end in 2024? | null | 1,715,843,990,645 | 1,727,933,135,591 | 1,727,933,135,591 | YES | 0.92 | 1,363.089927 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
4cMRGJSfzZMbVrllzLLS | who-will-be-elected-to-be-us-presid | Who will be elected to be US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | null | 1,685,917,894,139 | 1,730,793,600,000 | 1,730,990,536,186 | NO | 0.023952 | 27,453.876856 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
X0vFQqL0UGAp3TMe10LE | will-caltrain-electrification-finis-293a770aaf8c | Will Caltrain electrification finish by end of 2025? | null | 1,674,096,108,249 | 1,734,970,297,482 | 1,734,970,297,482 | YES | 0.980993 | 8,135.560534 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
kjxaa7tdrr | will-any-world-leaders-be-assassina | Will any world leaders be assassinated by the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,620,420,715 | 1,735,672,436,685 | 1,735,672,436,685 | NO | 0.037062 | 10,722.333923 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
qXu1vRB5aeYAgquhqhzr | 10-us-court-rule-that-generative-ai | 10) U.S. court rule that generative AI models trained on the internet represent a violation of copyright. [Abbreviated] | null | 1,703,511,788,704 | 1,734,453,573,314 | 1,734,453,573,314 | NO | 0.010037 | 11,062.297784 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
zU8S84gXnb5p7ABiJOal | will-any-hamas-terrorists-be-arrest | Will any Hamas terrorists be arrested in the US in the next year? (Oct 8th, 2024) | null | 1,697,138,447,313 | 1,729,058,340,000 | 1,729,083,918,668 | NO | 0.01 | 9,342.381742 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
I1GaMjmrugPnE9kVD8QG | nfl-week-14-dec-8-2024-will-the-los | NFL Week 14 (Dec 8 2024): Will the Los Angeles Rams (home) beat the Buffalo Bills (away)? | null | 1,715,834,532,721 | 1,733,865,900,000 | 1,735,276,188,910 | YES | 0.99 | 1,282.227913 | Sports | Professional Sports |
pYf3hMhhYYvAFqmwoVUR | will-september-2024-be-the-hottest | Will September 2024 be the hottest September on record in the US? | null | 1,705,193,289,758 | 1,727,909,940,000 | 1,728,183,952,762 | NO | 0.01 | 1,647.267632 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
nlejlk23ms | will-the-milwaukee-brewers-play-in | Will the Milwaukee Brewers play in the 2024 World Series? | null | 1,721,837,570,769 | 1,728,045,764,092 | 1,728,045,764,092 | NO | 0.01 | 10,726.8826 | Sports | Professional Sports |
I9tnLctSdO | will-polymarket-a-volume-of-4-billi | Will Polymarket have a total volume of $4 billion on US 2024 elections? | null | 1,730,813,255,986 | 1,730,917,302,076 | 1,730,917,302,076 | NO | 0.086694 | 6,804.255967 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
v9L9JJ2Ph5dzmS4brDrH | have-they-found-amelia-earharts-pla | Have they found Amelia Earhart's plane? | null | 1,706,647,745,065 | 1,730,827,211,759 | 1,730,827,211,759 | NO | 0.01 | 10,254.887928 | Sports | Individual Sports |
HD0dOwjnrmu6c8UZWdUL | is-the-firing-of-sam-altman-and-the | Is the firing of Sam Altman and the current situation at OpenAI mainly a consequence of an internal breakthrough? | null | 1,700,447,173,083 | 1,732,078,740,000 | 1,734,818,192,444 | NO | 0.062343 | 3,960.311539 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
mslWqzdpHHBdQzetdotS | at-the-end-of-2024-will-the-most-us-2258f168d2da | At the end of 2024 will the most commonly used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be a Land card? (non-Basic) | null | 1,705,677,151,376 | 1,735,671,197,054 | 1,735,671,197,054 | NO | 0.017662 | 9,576.490825 | Entertainment | Gaming |
jeSJaYpjoKDd4ONb1dO4 | will-the-eu-and-australia-have-a-fr | Will the EU and Australia have a free trade agreement by 2025? | null | 1,681,139,844,867 | 1,735,681,088,498 | 1,735,681,088,498 | NO | 0.070668 | 556.347184 | Geopolitics | Trade & Economics |
za3e2bm83n | will-i-eat-under-1650-calories-each-nhl3d4ku76 | Will I eat under 1650 Calories each day this week (through 2024-09-21)? | null | 1,726,427,045,197 | 1,726,707,731,495 | 1,726,707,731,495 | NO | 0.59 | 20 | Finance | Personal Finance |
3ofba4kw2f | will-noa-nabeshima-publish-a-lesswr | Will Noa Nabeshima publish a Lesswrong post in the next 7 days | null | 1,728,854,591,076 | 1,729,493,940,000 | 1,729,637,181,028 | NO | 0.02 | 611 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
s555a5e6m8 | will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-get-at-lea | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. get at least 1% of the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 Presidential Election? | null | 1,723,525,596,297 | 1,731,915,477,504 | 1,731,915,477,504 | NO | 0.01001 | 951 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
KLdcg1uSFALrUxcnVLNk | will-the-myanmar-junta-relinquish-p | Will the Myanmar junta relinquish power before October 2024? | null | 1,696,244,958,482 | 1,727,779,239,812 | 1,727,779,239,812 | NO | 0.01 | 1,547.860364 | Geopolitics | Regional Affairs |
J4tzFfTgsGSSQxrCT75N | will-reddit-dip-below-their-ipo-pri | Will Reddit dip below their IPO price of $34 before October 2024? | null | 1,711,070,594,482 | 1,727,704,740,000 | 1,728,807,703,698 | NO | 0.01 | 2,017.089097 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
rzgmsexsra | will-doug-emhoff-be-a-guest-on-the | Will Doug Emhoff be a guest on the Lex Fridman Podcast before election day 2024? | null | 1,725,512,819,523 | 1,730,805,525,542 | 1,730,805,525,542 | NO | 0.010012 | 1,042.809388 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
qHvlpClQ3NOnS3yD46oB | f1-2024-will-lewis-hamilton-finish | F1 2024 - Will Lewis Hamilton finish ahead of George Russell in the WDC? | null | 1,709,117,875,090 | 1,733,728,447,316 | 1,733,728,447,316 | NO | 0.01 | 3,328.556971 | Sports | Individual Sports |
wu0mzxhtjz | will-hezbollahs-exploding-pagers-be | Will Hezbollah's exploding pagers be shown to have explosive material added beyond what is in a normal battery? | null | 1,726,766,779,985 | 1,728,313,199,116 | 1,728,313,199,116 | YES | 0.99 | 12,771.368895 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
8h90olm50r | will-pavel-durov-be-forced-to-spend | Will Pavel Durov be Forced to spend Christmas in France? | null | 1,724,883,661,574 | 1,735,134,418,759 | 1,735,134,418,759 | YES | 0.982844 | 8,678.201596 | Politics | International Relations |
dk6ppdpyj3 | will-macron-give-a-speech-inside-th | Will Macron give a speech inside the Notre Dame cathedral during its re-opening? | null | 1,727,116,340,395 | 1,733,606,851,588 | 1,733,606,851,588 | YES | 0.988607 | 1,167 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
K1qxS49ebDtSbSkzuZn0 | will-kizaru-awaken-his-devil-fruit | WILL Kizaru Awaken His Devil Fruit On Egghead? | null | 1,708,041,822,651 | 1,719,806,340,000 | 1,732,315,487,297 | NO | 0.174443 | 7,279.077983 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
yVGQmlgNObggkxptdz1R | will-houston-have-a-strong-tornado | Will Houston have a strong tornado in 2024? | null | 1,701,551,947,249 | 1,735,578,428,521 | 1,735,578,428,521 | YES | 0.446597 | 78.434653 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
O3swsczCUmfPLTadMjXE | will-the-reds-win-82-or-more-games | Will the Reds win 82 or more games in the 2024 MLB regular season? | null | 1,705,733,247,082 | 1,727,679,540,000 | 1,727,804,200,841 | NO | 0.01 | 449.27708 | Sports | Professional Sports |
1u8gdhl386 | will-trump-win-nevada-in-the-2024-p | Will Trump win Nevada in the 2024 Presidential Election? | null | 1,727,304,276,433 | 1,731,050,197,326 | 1,731,050,197,326 | YES | 0.990366 | 357,999.961514 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
isb5jsfjw7 | will-tcb-scans-upload-chapter-1128 | Will TCB Scans upload chapter 1128 of One Piece on October 3rd? | null | 1,726,901,685,035 | 1,728,025,140,000 | 1,728,064,001,031 | NO | 0.61 | 479.364103 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
9oc0wz833r | will-manifold-have-10000-twitterx-f | Will Manifold have 10,000 Twitter/X followers before Election Day (Nov 5)? | null | 1,724,257,306,953 | 1,730,825,262,762 | 1,730,825,262,762 | NO | 0.017195 | 54,615.383847 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
2i4y8488ez | will-trump-win-arizona-in-the-2024 | Will Trump win Arizona in the 2024 Presidential Election? | null | 1,727,304,119,385 | 1,731,050,482,430 | 1,731,050,482,430 | YES | 0.993746 | 409,898.625694 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
qhzQgRgnNt | will-political-markets-stop-dominat | Will political markets stop dominating Manifold by next month. | null | 1,731,276,165,674 | 1,734,533,565,210 | 1,734,533,565,210 | YES | 0.367661 | 1,824.084717 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
miyw2eiqvt | will-ukraine-take-control-of-the-ku-a5cxqghsz7 | Will Ukraine take control of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant by the end of this month? | null | 1,725,296,647,237 | 1,727,733,540,000 | 1,727,734,562,817 | NO | 0.01 | 156,027.793186 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
NZuLqNqURy | daily-coinflip-6ZpnqAC6PP | Daily coinflip | null | 1,730,696,863,606 | 1,730,869,140,000 | 1,730,875,725,312 | NO | 0.51 | 10,483.257889 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
ZcDnZfa89rPcY4eOiPck | will-a-republican-win-pennsylvania-804816d5e30f | Will a Republican win Pennsylvania in the 2024 POTUS election? | null | 1,686,273,470,977 | 1,730,902,425,248 | 1,730,902,425,248 | YES | 0.99 | 2,519.321774 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
IhHxbCxzWHD1cFU4GmD9 | will-a-test-subject-die-at-neuralli | Will a test subject die at Neurallink in 2024? | null | 1,709,304,324,448 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,686,300,092 | NO | 0.056718 | 3,502.637805 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
4XLAG4riFXclnnqxAXG7 | bayern-munich-202425-to-win-any-dom | Bayern Munich 2024/25: to win any Domestic Cup, any European Cup, and any player with ≥41 Bundesliga goals | null | 1,716,025,643,841 | 1,735,233,113,914 | 1,735,233,113,914 | NO | 0.034707 | 4,502 | Sports | Professional Sports |
UNOhIpOlEg | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-6ClSNgy6R5 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Dec 13 than it closed on Dec 12? | null | 1,734,041,062,102 | 1,734,123,781,778 | 1,734,123,781,778 | NO | 0.412929 | 409.995094 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
6n2t81eboi | will-there-be-any-break-between-one-hw1zsn3fzy | Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1128 and 1129? | null | 1,726,522,330,973 | 1,727,813,833,520 | 1,727,813,836,521 | NO | 0.03 | 4,759 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
pabt9g6gtk | will-donald-trump-drop-out-of-the-p-f6ek0sgypv | Will Donald Trump drop out of the presidential election for any reason before Nov 5th ? | null | 1,723,067,604,330 | 1,730,850,482,746 | 1,730,850,482,746 | NO | 0.008912 | 123,238.790106 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
bKXOSz6PnXjngfP3fsVe | will-jimmy-carter-outlive-manifold | Will Jimmy Carter outlive Manifold Markets? | null | 1,713,931,936,979 | 1,735,516,255,997 | 1,735,516,255,997 | NO | 0.011139 | 10,738.406811 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
36kqlhz2PGPFhRM8eLoD | will-kamala-harris-visit-another-ab | Will Kamala Harris visit another abortion clinic before the election? | null | 1,714,607,866,445 | 1,730,879,940,000 | 1,730,943,259,871 | NO | 0.038709 | 557.426555 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
H2wwMk9mg47xGnrot6Kl | will-joe-biden-and-benjamin-netanya | Will Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu meet in person in year 2024? | null | 1,706,413,096,137 | 1,734,457,264,953 | 1,734,457,264,953 | YES | 0.99 | 982.006111 | Politics | International Relations |
U0z2ry6EaEsTZLvZ6qqf | will-this-tweet-hold-up-sora-will-s | will this tweet hold up: Sora will sign an exclusive deal with Sony Pictures | null | 1,710,207,299,593 | 1,733,794,089,070 | 1,733,794,089,070 | NO | 0.063995 | 1,182.551765 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
Q2c0EZhg25 | daily-coinflip-ESsZuhPCcZ | Daily coinflip | null | 1,731,296,466,506 | 1,731,385,800,000 | 1,731,418,176,695 | YES | 0.506443 | 4,782.635363 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
qg9lv8ljb0 | will-kamala-harriss-highest-polling | Will Kamala Harris's highest polling this election cycle occur during or just after the Democratic National Convention? | null | 1,722,101,136,992 | 1,724,137,140,000 | 1,730,787,980,854 | YES | 0.353282 | 3,518.524192 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
1n1yFBEOk5JmsB3MC9Gw | will-israel-attack-at-least-one-of | Will Israel attack at least one of Iran's nuclear facilities by year-end 2024? | null | 1,713,143,415,237 | 1,732,105,786,080 | 1,732,105,786,080 | YES | 0.85796 | 50,775.017788 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
00BD9JD5ZG3MjzfqHsux | is-the-lean-kernel-unsound | Will a soundness hole be discovered in lean4checker? | null | 1,695,821,239,702 | 1,735,649,940,000 | 1,735,686,112,247 | NO | 0.088639 | 7,306.25493 | Technology | Computing & Software |
mNvS2QczNn0VCkB7rh65 | will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-ff7d7ad0446e | Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before Oct 2024? | null | 1,705,843,818,735 | 1,728,202,753,714 | 1,728,202,753,714 | NO | 0.01 | 6,741.054985 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
t6RsIIsLcO | will-this-market-close-above-60-chh9A6E58I | Will this market close above 60% | null | 1,732,405,497,266 | 1,733,093,940,000 | 1,733,094,095,018 | YES | 0.985338 | 1,031.055355 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
evNABatwCVTSYGv14z3Y | will-vladimir-putin-be-alive-on-dec | Will Vladimir Putin be alive on December 21st, 2024? | null | 1,689,336,696,149 | 1,734,847,200,000 | 1,734,904,012,639 | YES | 0.99 | 102,074.634271 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
ePI08ks2TDkVbxJ02IHl | shrek-5-releases-in-2024 | Shrek 5 releases in 2024 | null | 1,705,681,163,236 | 1,735,640,809,321 | 1,735,640,809,321 | NO | 0.01 | 1,337.819898 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
nNZxX0jkOeWcN72p0V0P | chatgpt-with-gpt3-will-be-able-to-d | ChatGPT with GPT-3 Will Be Able to Draw a Turtle with Python Turtle by End of June 2024 | null | 1,683,752,646,288 | 1,719,809,940,000 | 1,734,803,725,773 | NO | 0.056456 | 385.649899 | Technology | Computing & Software |
FLtHUn96T71ZPqDTpBGf | will-the-total-market-capitalizatio | Will the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies exceed $3 trillion USD by the end of 2024? | null | 1,697,914,446,986 | 1,734,390,999,602 | 1,734,390,999,602 | YES | 0.952589 | 1,482.665839 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
LEhn8Itu50 | will-openai-launch-or-announce-some | Will OpenAI launch or announce something new on ChatGPT’s anniversary tomorrow? | null | 1,732,899,783,286 | 1,733,058,399,646 | 1,733,058,399,646 | NO | 0.044174 | 10,090.241449 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
0j3PFTOngtJcz2uxQmpX | will-any-manifold-user-withdraw-at | Will any Manifold user withdraw at least $1,000 from Manifold "sweepcash" in 2024? | null | 1,713,931,650,595 | 1,729,225,742,935 | 1,729,225,742,935 | YES | 0.99 | 41,736.669697 | Finance | Personal Finance |
drx8iE8BSWNuYkmMfmhV | will-gojo-satoru-return-before-summ | Will Gojo Satoru return before summer? | null | 1,712,336,632,831 | 1,719,028,740,000 | 1,730,867,824,745 | NO | 0.175913 | 287.799246 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
o6fnOS2MFC4pi7OECcq6 | will-republicans-win-the-senate-in | Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2024 elections? | null | 1,670,516,629,852 | 1,730,946,807,565 | 1,730,946,807,565 | YES | 0.99 | 18,260.366172 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
3t0do50n5z | will-destiny-appear-on-the-david-pa | Will Destiny appear on The David Pakman Show on or before Election day 2024 | null | 1,728,356,852,435 | 1,730,813,340,000 | 1,730,821,856,613 | NO | 0.01 | 894.987437 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
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