id stringlengths 9 20 | market_slug stringlengths 5 54 | question stringlengths 8 193 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,641B 1,735B | closeTime int64 1,704B 1,736B | resolvedTime int64 1,727B 1,736B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 ⌀ | volume float64 0 3.75M | pred_category stringclasses 12 values | pred_subcategory stringclasses 43 values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
I4Grr89G1OO9lNSULQpU | will-any-us-senate-election-in-2024 | Will any U.S. Senate election in 2024 be decided by less than 1%? | null | 1,689,382,476,245 | 1,732,943,309,074 | 1,732,943,309,074 | YES | 0.99 | 13,024.93013 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
3m1fgej0u7 | one-month-from-today-will-manifold-a0migluya1 | One month from today, will Manifold pay out Spice/Prize Points/Similar currency as USD to at least one USA state? | null | 1,726,459,802,751 | 1,729,137,540,000 | 1,729,140,293,291 | YES | 0.78 | 127 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
delgzszzkG4IsoEFNxCD | nfl-week-9-nov-3-2024-will-the-seat | NFL Week 9 (Nov 3 2024): Will the Seattle Seahawks (home) beat the Los Angeles Rams (away)? | null | 1,715,834,191,878 | 1,730,836,319,804 | 1,730,836,319,804 | NO | 0.011881 | 1,367.128352 | Sports | Professional Sports |
vgguj7ayip | will-the-israelis-bomb-iran-before | Will the Israelis bomb Iran before 2025? | null | 1,727,701,567,343 | 1,729,935,930,930 | 1,729,935,930,930 | YES | 0.99 | 17,558.516747 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
UitJbJIPmkakW2hLgTFP | will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-sen-acee7113d48b | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Montana? | null | 1,670,677,349,540 | 1,730,913,909,275 | 1,730,913,909,275 | NO | 0.026476 | 75,397.302536 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
TRJ3UVJ9lYEphPys4Q8C | will-i-play-at-least-50-fiderated-c | Will I play at least 50 FIDE-rated classical games this year? | null | 1,707,851,685,680 | 1,730,264,387,286 | 1,730,264,387,286 | NO | 0.451201 | 1,073.748399 | Sports | Individual Sports |
c3pg77npaq | will-netflix-reverse-its-illadvised | Will Netflix reverse its ill-advised decision to cast Lera Abova in One Piece? | null | 1,726,999,787,548 | 1,732,624,134,580 | 1,732,624,134,580 | NO | 0.042072 | 4,599.090487 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
j57kg99wed | will-wimipa-all-be-won-by-the-same | Will WI/MI/PA all be won by the same candidate? | null | 1,718,601,081,326 | 1,731,218,340,000 | 1,731,295,614,355 | YES | 0.99 | 1,556.400692 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
VydVZH2qxHWEr6cdL8BA | will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-presid-6d04e99d80fa | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in North Carolina? | null | 1,670,815,269,432 | 1,731,292,946,889 | 1,731,292,946,889 | NO | 0.009742 | 17,598.172261 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
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