id stringlengths 9 20 | slug stringlengths 4 54 | question stringlengths 1 120 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,715B 1,752B | closeTime int64 1,717B 1,752B | resolvedTime int64 1,736B 1,752B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 | volume float64 0 6.93M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rq9MwMQeprzqTdpo5QIq | will-the-us-be-at-full-employment-i | Will the U.S. be at full employment in December 2024? | null | 1,714,932,968,606 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,743,507,996,316 | YES | 0.45 | 230.430081 |
BT2iaftEibm6tZBB3tLT | will-one-of-the-characters-in-amazi | Will one of the characters in amazing digital circus get abstracted until the end of 2024? | null | 1,714,932,199,166 | 1,735,700,340,000 | 1,735,933,114,275 | NO | 0.269769 | 65 |
vpOCmietazhCEIQn6Ozb | will-there-be-a-tornado-reported-an-afed291c4e5a | Will there be a Tornado reported anywhere in the world on March 14, 2025? | null | 1,714,931,091,527 | 1,742,011,140,000 | 1,743,008,888,737 | YES | 0.805039 | 672.200078 |
XYzUgUimeMKzgqQ62O7K | will-dan-make-a-fully-paywalled-epi | WILL DAN MAKE A FULLY PAYWALLED EPISODE BEFORE 2025? | null | 1,714,926,358,360 | 1,735,865,717,377 | 1,735,865,717,377 | NO | 0.323276 | 65 |
UvdUzpI4PRfhTxK9u6qm | will-the-grand-theft-auto-6-release | Will the Grand Theft Auto 6 release be delayed until April 1st 2026 or later? | null | 1,714,921,277,994 | 1,746,468,483,114 | 1,746,468,483,114 | YES | 0.99 | 1,016.707725 |
n4ieuCBqdUvXYofGJDh2 | will-there-be-an-earthquake-of-at-l | Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2025? (May 5) | null | 1,714,920,530,653 | 1,746,453,874,398 | 1,746,453,874,398 | YES | 0.991013 | 49,991.209513 |
PmXBSOAkO1ZGfbMGJSEv | will-bayern-munich-win-the-202425-c | Will Bayern Munich win the 2024/25 Champions League | null | 1,714,918,280,198 | 1,745,435,409,663 | 1,745,435,409,663 | NO | 0.01 | 1,201.887458 |
AdKj0fxXNkElhvYJJkeN | jj-watt-plays-for-the-nfl-again-by | J.J. Watt plays for the NFL again by end of next season? | null | 1,714,915,734,875 | 1,738,110,836,919 | 1,738,110,836,919 | NO | 0.01 | 1,147.243984 |
JzMjnxgIAL5wvtLUrsWg | will-chelsea-win-the-202425-premier | Will Chelsea win the 2024/25 Premier League? | null | 1,714,913,471,670 | 1,745,520,930,904 | 1,745,520,930,904 | NO | 0.01 | 2,925.193104 |
8TCcoAFVVIPkHrsWJCJV | will-barcelona-win-the-202425-la-li | Will Barcelona win the 2024/25 La Liga? | null | 1,714,913,263,924 | 1,747,108,740,000 | 1,747,438,779,879 | YES | 0.99 | 19,309.957967 |
o3p9Qj75VivEyJ6FE4jJ | will-real-madrid-win-the-202425-la | Will Real Madrid win the 2024/25 La Liga? | null | 1,714,913,203,081 | 1,747,367,940,000 | 1,747,438,770,911 | NO | 0.01 | 4,049.195213 |
MjU42RU2HcJgDNsA0v81 | will-atletico-de-madrid-win-the-202-fb5664d34fcd | Will Atlético de Madrid win the 2024/25 La Liga? | null | 1,714,913,180,441 | 1,747,108,740,000 | 1,747,438,874,608 | NO | 0.01 | 2,563.187997 |
AK1sqGkoSNcPaX3PNmMI | will-real-sociedad-win-the-202425-l | Will Real Sociedad win the 2024/25 La Liga? | null | 1,714,913,160,516 | 1,745,520,940,892 | 1,745,520,940,892 | NO | 0.01 | 899.293686 |
tqfWqaElRCdgQIDfhqmy | will-girona-win-the-202425-la-liga | Will Girona win the 2024/25 La Liga? | null | 1,714,913,136,601 | 1,745,520,949,818 | 1,745,520,949,818 | NO | 0.01 | 1,430.09594 |
aSAA71XlY5ukOOILGbdR | at-eoy-2024-will-i-still-think-that | At EOY 2024, will I still think that the internet connexion on high-speed trains in France is completely useless ? | null | 1,714,912,614,483 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,736,983,555,775 | YES | 0.82199 | 117.401506 |
QyJXO55RWBrLBdc4vrSd | will-what-i-mean-by-alignment-is-in | Will "What I mean by "alignment is in large part ab..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,714,904,169,365 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,596,048 | NO | 0.096359 | 43.883292 |
gzmFogdRfFkmqAYV364f | will-dont-dismiss-simple-alignment | Will "Don't Dismiss Simple Alignment Approaches" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,714,888,195,262 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,604,348 | NO | 0.1 | 38.883292 |
YYaAecCHy67edFG0GjjS | will-jack-outperform-jill-in-2024 | Will JACK outperform JILL in 2024? | null | 1,714,886,892,104 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,357,009 | NO | 0.031709 | 479.000001 |
7O03hKa9cQzLkS60ilb0 | will-cat-outperform-dog-in-2024 | Will CAT outperform DOG in 2024? | null | 1,714,886,858,835 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,380,521 | YES | 0.949893 | 337 |
F5I6QSkRRZtL4Blo6zxG | will-there-be-a-ussaudi-arabia-join | Will there be a US-Saudi Arabia joint defense bill in 2024? | null | 1,714,885,736,811 | 1,735,804,740,000 | 1,735,805,472,578 | NO | 0.030786 | 498 |
9Ffji5qtVL2qY9rCRtfc | will-killing-socrates-make-the-top-98819b44b258 | Will "Killing Socrates" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,714,872,509,776 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,083,635 | NO | 0.799084 | 1,278.521076 |
JGcsppSe4dCcgb0WrsRY | will-the-horse-that-wins-the-kentuc-545c1d6556c9 | Will the horse that wins the Kentucky Derby 2025 have a three syllable or longer name? | null | 1,714,864,388,269 | 1,746,566,455,053 | 1,746,566,455,053 | YES | 0.99 | 1,345.843253 |
GnQpeXDltz1sr7j1uTKo | will-the-horse-that-wins-the-kentuc-79adf972032c | Will the horse that wins the Kentucky Derby 2025 have a two-word name? | null | 1,714,864,312,202 | 1,746,895,700,160 | 1,746,895,700,160 | NO | 0.007777 | 2,044.985109 |
ig42ka6PgDEKh4ryDpND | will-drake-and-kendrick-settle-thei | Will Drake and Kendrick settle their beef and/or reconcile publicly before the end of 2024? | null | 1,714,844,459,264 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,667,366 | NO | 0.020423 | 4,378.740297 |
vkO55YCpwSh8b9IoSO8B | will-the-us-federal-government-decl | Will the US federal government declare a public health emergency regarding the H5N1 avian influenza virus in 2024? | null | 1,714,814,304,410 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,710,164,019 | NO | 0.014155 | 880.439571 |
DtzMRiTwz8cNpdvij8Dv | will-hamas-leadership-move-to-turke | Will Hamas leadership move to Turkey in 2024? | null | 1,714,800,427,484 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,790,127,044 | NO | 0.074604 | 2,114.838027 |
tpft2Od6S2AB4SJGDVxy | will-hamas-leadership-be-expelled-f | Will Hamas leadership be expelled from Qatar in 2024? | null | 1,714,800,374,697 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,224,151,386 | NO | 0.067289 | 1,032.478076 |
r8WEDRf5iQMRfEZe2jlc | will-destiny-be-featured-in-a-al-ja | Will Destiny be featured in a Al Jazeera segment before the end of 2024? | null | 1,714,768,113,109 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,832,386,018 | NO | 0.156943 | 177 |
DJ0rLHJOzu7kVIW7KZHe | will-destiny-be-featured-in-a-msnbc | Will Destiny be featured in a MSNBC segment before the end of 2024? | null | 1,714,768,077,121 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,832,379,833 | NO | 0.11273 | 299.399469 |
UMoMiiVKdVLyOwLk38C5 | will-kerbal-space-program-2-officia | Will Kerbal Space Program 2 officially stop development in 2024? | null | 1,714,758,698,697 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,739,599,122,377 | NO | 0.808872 | 283.759818 |
GtvRHgf3Ua6K61fMNLk9 | will-anyone-be-successfully-sued-in | Will anyone be successfully sued in Texas for having an abortion in another state before 2025? | null | 1,714,751,103,836 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,740,376,607 | NO | 0.01 | 938.493425 |
9loLEG9bMGV3Nt6Jy2f9 | will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-make-th-9ce8620dc09c | Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the Super Bowl in 2025? | null | 1,714,742,439,947 | 1,736,575,140,000 | 1,737,946,808,575 | YES | 0.363885 | 1,615.980074 |
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