id stringlengths 9 20 | slug stringlengths 4 54 | question stringlengths 1 120 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,715B 1,752B | closeTime int64 1,717B 1,752B | resolvedTime int64 1,736B 1,752B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 | volume float64 0 6.93M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
l5gzjOj07MOEf9jPXapK | -will-telegram-officially-announce | 💸 Will Telegram officially announce an IPO by the end of 2024? 📈 | null | 1,715,771,268,013 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,723,970,322 | NO | 0.023617 | 3,348.907585 |
SoO28hfo5l5i5iAZGxWy | will-announcing-dialogues-make-the | Will "Announcing Dialogues" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,715,761,250,247 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,086,687 | NO | 0.116544 | 20 |
yYlWpTReXnfNCcV9dT1W | placeholder-market-27 | Placeholder market 27 | null | 1,715,758,602,652 | 1,747,337,102,170 | 1,747,337,102,170 | NO | 0.127625 | 2,186 |
Ddre6HnA55Qs24rOxm3d | does-manifold-think-cannabis-is-kil | Does Manifold think Cannabis is killing folks? | null | 1,715,755,599,325 | 1,745,211,540,000 | 1,745,254,948,622 | NO | 0.01 | 996.766577 |
aJyPBW9f8KfXJ4zoXtjB | market-placeholder | Will Mario Builder 64 be shut down or heavily restricted by Nintendo by the end of 2024? | null | 1,715,747,209,797 | 1,743,691,151,590 | 1,743,691,151,590 | NO | 0.038327 | 438.799085 |
cdFidOCcAaoexQx45CO6 | megalopolis-imdb-80-before-2025 | Megalopolis iMDB >= 8.0 before 2025? | null | 1,715,740,566,613 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,710,220,757 | NO | 0.01 | 979.635449 |
qMv6w3aBIoOHXgQbZqyB | will-ilya-sutskever-announce-they-a | Will Ilya Sutskever announce they will work at Anthropic before the end of 2024? | null | 1,715,730,859,771 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,639,284 | NO | 0.01 | 22,483.134292 |
Twb3untvynzMEo55dN26 | metaculus-will-the-us-or-eu-seize-r | [Metaculus] Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024? | null | 1,715,719,937,714 | 1,735,808,400,000 | 1,735,905,620,512 | NO | 0.037126 | 569.290861 |
bBy2CzmWfUouriyFpt5l | was-ethereum-eth-at-its-year-low-in | Was Ethereum ETH at its year low in January 2024? | null | 1,715,715,557,090 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,998,748,744 | YES | 0.93947 | 612.767613 |
0lSrHabm6gSoH3f3ZI19 | will-sheryl-sandberg-replace-bob-ig | Will Sheryl Sandberg replace Bob Iger as CEO of Disney by the end of 2024? | null | 1,715,714,125,929 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,736,452,249,389 | NO | 0.01 | 11,480.472488 |
j8OZxOzhPPkqih5hdIUY | did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory-8d38660948d1 | Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? | null | 1,715,707,178,633 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,735,711,454,603 | NO | 0.211221 | 16,797.048082 |
YOM6G0pF8H628Wu7lx5M | does-manifold-think-the-covid19-shu | Does Manifold think the Covid-19 shutdown worth it? | null | 1,715,706,504,827 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,735,711,363,457 | YES | 0.946938 | 344.353877 |
gcVrckjiFoKmM07QbvQJ | will-credible-corroborated-gpt4o-mo | Will credible, corroborated GPT4o model details leak before 2025? | null | 1,715,673,518,230 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,717,217,973 | NO | 0.36 | 283.991248 |
gk3EWyHnqwPbF11jSvXg | will-i-hired-5-people-to-sit-behind | Will "I hired 5 people to sit behind me and make me..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,715,666,041,454 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,432,517 | NO | 0.21979 | 15 |
RtqWahA53xW6RuLCTD2k | openai-will-launch-an-audio-only-sm | OpenAI will launch an audio only smart home device in the next twelve months | null | 1,715,659,150,636 | 1,747,292,340,000 | 1,747,314,704,321 | NO | 0.01124 | 51,165.790311 |
2BAH7MUvyu2FO43UNj9g | will-one-of-the-top-10-highest-gros | Will one of the top 10 highest grossing movies of 2024 be from China? | null | 1,715,658,883,630 | 1,735,723,767,039 | 1,735,723,767,039 | YES | 0.988426 | 1,107.133173 |
P4NRsY09TfqVV6WY8gUa | will-alpharad-do-a-vtuber-stream-th | Will Alpharad do a Vtuber stream this year? | null | 1,715,655,298,249 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,012,361,567 | NO | 0.67 | 53.038115 |
kV8PdYHzSUA6UPSyAX56 | will-the-basic-reasons-i-expect-agi | Will "The basic reasons I expect AGI ruin" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,715,642,843,877 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,629,155 | NO | 0.165028 | 9 |
3qcDP9mwffdgOycSnVIX | will-andrey-belousov-still-be-the-m | Will Andrey Belousov still be the Minister of Defence of Russia on January 1, 2025? | null | 1,715,637,012,519 | 1,735,772,340,000 | 1,735,772,536,372 | YES | 0.99 | 974.938746 |
1rwUuZn0GNbQ1zFuXQuc | will-nintendo-file-a-lawsuit-to-blo | Will Nintendo file a lawsuit to block the use of "recompilation" of N64 games? | null | 1,715,631,302,176 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,735,921,033,105 | NO | 0.137931 | 347.700111 |
898ojZwmz1dHbRLDtGAi | will-alphafold-4-be-announced-in-20 | Will Alphafold 4 be announced in 2024? | null | 1,715,623,641,385 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,732,915,141 | NO | 0.01 | 905.12211 |
ZTcBLSLbf3lFQN20cacw | by-eoy-2024-will-it-be-publicly-kno-70bdbc54b9b8 | By EOY 2024, will it be publicly known that any Boeing whistleblower has been granted witness protection ? | null | 1,715,602,746,854 | 1,735,858,740,000 | 1,736,104,047,640 | NO | 0.019416 | 5,483.131382 |
iQ4wQK5pmqORxRvkUttU | will-the-first-ai-generated-video-t | Will the first AI generated video to reach 20M views on YouTube be a music video? | null | 1,715,598,848,949 | 1,748,029,965,490 | 1,748,029,965,490 | NO | 0.223371 | 5,455.685081 |
6ip5NUiJBLoQD9L62pVL | will-i-michael-achieve-an-a-grade-i | Will I (Michael) achieve an A grade in my AS subjects? | null | 1,715,595,511,550 | 1,718,233,140,000 | 1,736,123,976,197 | YES | 0.898443 | 226.395973 |
JF8s3tTTF9wv2UD1zgpF | will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-6ef6edd2974a | Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 20M views before 2025? (no audio requirement, slide show okay) | null | 1,715,591,388,467 | 1,735,743,540,000 | 1,740,075,111,892 | YES | 0.892073 | 3,959.454915 |
rJKXY5qP8cwuK647pt4R | will-anyone-collect-the-9d-platinum | Will anyone collect the 9D platinum berry in Celeste before the end of 2024? | null | 1,715,571,597,155 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,759,629,046 | NO | 0.084573 | 229 |
pFApJ12OsplIhO50twf3 | will-tesla-license-fsd-to-any-major | Will Tesla License FSD to any major OEM by end of January 2025? | null | 1,715,560,017,923 | 1,738,385,940,000 | 1,740,450,916,990 | NO | 0.024354 | 8,364.305032 |
rkl3h8GuXJwoFlfoA5IH | will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-3peat-a | Will the Kansas City Chiefs 3-peat as NFL Champions? | null | 1,715,551,705,086 | 1,739,158,246,907 | 1,739,158,246,907 | NO | 0.01 | 129,987.211435 |
e0UT9Kzuewa7jc79FMpm | will-llms-sometimes-generate-purely | Will "LLMs Sometimes Generate Purely Negatively-Rei..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,715,551,558,406 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,975,089 | NO | 0.187431 | 5 |
dhOzYo7hE8oFECzcJVmG | will-another-serviceman-us-active-m | Will another serviceman (US Active military) be killed in 2024 | null | 1,715,547,637,412 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,164,109,692 | NO | 0.539168 | 45 |
0dEB0UgE9sHeu1E2BDRJ | will-joe-biden-last-longer-than-ben | Will Joe Biden last longer than Benjamin Netanyahu as head of state? | null | 1,715,546,212,710 | 1,737,349,260,000 | 1,737,477,157,107 | NO | 0.01 | 10,032.793917 |
V4cA5KurN7Wk97kAwy60 | will-when-do-brains-beat-brawn-in-c | Will "When do "brains beat brawn" in Chess? An expe..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,715,529,011,385 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,393,709 | NO | 0.726249 | 50 |
IahC6vxhKyq9klEWftb8 | by-mid-2025-will-there-be-trouble-f | By mid 2025 will there be city based problems for my dad for self-designed anti-raccoon front yard infrastructure? | null | 1,715,498,621,041 | 1,751,353,140,000 | 1,751,358,179,816 | NO | 0.136833 | 190 |
DndUyV6V0TEKB1qPVbJa | will-destiny-talk-to-slime-or-ludwi | Will Destiny talk to Slime or Ludwig on a stream before the end of 2024? | null | 1,715,472,274,716 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,635,418 | NO | 0.023464 | 702.259471 |
nCZxcCL3PeKOM00ccOkx | will-midjourney-have-a-permanent-fr | Will Midjourney Have A Permanent Free Tier By The End Of 2024? | null | 1,715,469,109,073 | 1,735,725,540,000 | 1,741,639,783,199 | YES | 0.051084 | 417.958907 |
fi8IRWNAdtZhkv6WENU9 | will-jimmy-carter-outlive-noam-chom | Will Jimmy Carter outlive Noam Chomsky? | null | 1,715,466,037,859 | 1,737,263,433,399 | 1,737,263,433,399 | NO | 0.007622 | 7,092.136158 |
ujG7RC7utPwL3GDDNd2v | will-taylor-swift-release-reputatio-5e221d4b3403 | Will Taylor Swift release “reputation (Taylor’s Version)” within one week of 12/13/24? | null | 1,715,444,557,552 | 1,735,714,740,000 | 1,735,764,123,333 | NO | 0.01 | 8,709.349241 |
2ySr3JrlNRKl06XgjXTi | will-openai-reveal-a-textless-llm-b | Will OpenAI reveal a textless LLM before 2025? | null | 1,715,426,562,880 | 1,741,050,263,340 | 1,741,050,263,340 | NO | 0.01 | 14,437.009874 |
2fWge0qFGd62t9tz2G2X | will-bytedance-ask-approval-from-ch | Will ByteDance ask approval from Chinese government for sale of TikTok before deadline? | null | 1,715,421,651,117 | 1,745,251,140,000 | 1,749,116,028,345 | NO | 0.100506 | 340.449325 |
chTWYqhexNEp0KTcNuHp | will-the-eu-impose-an-import-duty-o | Will the EU impose an import duty of 50% or higher on Chinese cars by the end of 2024? | null | 1,715,413,006,119 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,736,104,304,474 | NO | 0.078673 | 2,560.027272 |
kt3GbxDfvNqf8VBPFqUE | will-we-dont-trade-with-ants-make-t | Will "We don’t trade with ants" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,715,408,029,134 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,399,800 | YES | 0.89939 | 115 |
qzGWP1LVXO8uEhshQHw3 | will-an-llms-context-window-reach-2 | Will an LLM have a context window of 20M or more in 2024? | null | 1,715,403,294,114 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,783,531,692 | NO | 0.020921 | 4,958.862244 |
wYoDt9efm04Mh3npWa5b | will-the-base-rate-times-news-throu | Will "The Base Rate Times, news through prediction ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,715,393,263,991 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,347,125 | NO | 0.204612 | 7 |
GEWvUnMJwVaTZCJBQvFW | will-the-cftc-finalize-a-rule-banni | Will the CFTC finalize a rule that bans US election betting before Jan 20, 2025? | null | 1,715,363,975,007 | 1,737,435,540,000 | 1,738,344,823,704 | NO | 0.01 | 12,726.873135 |
UKn5r8j8a4xnpxxGAsIe | will-i-exceed-my-alltime-prs-in-the | Will I exceed my all-time PRs in the Big 3 Lifts before the end of 2024? | null | 1,715,356,140,470 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,782,880,209 | NO | 0.029535 | 1,168.58656 |
11OR6f3oj9QVMbUCCbZM | at-least-1-person-killed-during-stu | At least 1 person killed during students protests in American universities during 2024? | null | 1,715,345,717,465 | 1,735,660,740,000 | 1,736,960,910,482 | NO | 0.016195 | 12,682.95886 |
IPH9PJfHO3ZbkZtZNhjG | will-i-get-into-mit-f46928e41491 | Will I get into MIT? | null | 1,715,307,989,602 | 1,749,864,409,181 | 1,749,864,409,181 | YES | 0.952034 | 20,936.181829 |
lezhy8v9KwVEyyHF3rzN | will-manchester-city-win-the-202425-5f533767e396 | Will Manchester City win the 2024/25 Champions League? | null | 1,715,304,931,653 | 1,741,460,772,148 | 1,741,460,772,148 | NO | 0.009168 | 18,227.321847 |
CK79IZtVswCiiWxeNFMC | will-the-world-move-gazan-andor-sud | Will the world move Gazan and/or Sudanese refugees to Bir Tawil to be under international control? | null | 1,715,287,787,630 | 1,735,682,340,000 | 1,736,666,315,428 | NO | 0.032984 | 461 |
YcUgIRH687QlFF2SJ8GI | poland-will-judge-szmydt-stay-alive | Poland: Will Judge Szmydt stay alive through 2024? | null | 1,715,275,984,714 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,737,412,471,658 | YES | 0.887281 | 215 |
yXSzjxZRoVQyNtSaEsii | will-cohabitive-games-so-far-make-t | Will "Cohabitive Games so Far" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,715,273,873,452 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,298,134 | NO | 0.546308 | 85.426986 |
iZDbBgtaZ6siPfduoH8C | ethereum-eth-will-drop-below-2500-b | Ethereum (ETH) will drop below 2500$ before 2025 ? | null | 1,715,271,091,091 | 1,717,871,340,000 | 1,747,733,635,405 | YES | 0.398246 | 785 |
sWs8iXTsG7DyncgjynR0 | will-apple-announce-a-smart-ring-we-a1fa0a948c02 | Will Apple announce a smart ring wearable product by the end of 2024? | null | 1,715,269,856,273 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,890,950 | NO | 0.089488 | 267 |
JaJ3tILIudSQIBeC9UJ3 | will-apple-release-a-smart-ring-wea-2402d875b4f1 | Will Apple release a smart ring wearable product by the end of 2024? | null | 1,715,269,805,080 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,643,235 | NO | 0.064649 | 435.51172 |
7OAsOZv8QahwdewRy0gs | will-we-see-any-cp0-member-in-chapt-f833c4cb9781 | Will we see any cp0 member in chapter 1115? | null | 1,715,267,714,440 | 1,716,501,540,000 | 1,751,069,680,958 | YES | 0.451975 | 8,273.864989 |
2LHbwe1tWYALUURjszm8 | will-google-alphabet-announce-plans | Will Google (Alphabet) announce plans to acquire Hubspot in 2024? | null | 1,715,262,258,074 | 1,735,709,313,912 | 1,735,709,313,912 | NO | 0.059247 | 494.901465 |
udZdojXU7tMv5VfRcxzp | will-there-be-a-lessonline-2025 | Will there be a LessOnline 2025? | null | 1,715,256,773,505 | 1,748,999,465,479 | 1,748,999,465,479 | YES | 0.99 | 2,359.7715 |
YxyOvDLv9Cb4lsBwOxwB | will-i-run-a-half-marathon-in-2024 | Will I run a half marathon in 2024? | null | 1,715,252,380,865 | 1,735,772,340,000 | 1,736,015,760,057 | NO | 0.016244 | 1,471.401506 |
heUExgHdfL7fIs3JjCwP | will-6-nonobvious-mental-health-iss | Will "6 non-obvious mental health issues specific t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,715,237,503,003 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,964,134 | NO | 0.138626 | 1 |
SAIehGxbCln8F9N37J1k | will-the-doj-charge-tesla-executive | Will the DOJ charge Tesla executives with wire fraud or securities fraud? | null | 1,715,203,216,618 | 1,746,766,740,000 | 1,746,814,305,870 | NO | 0.01 | 950.896293 |
JxPOlHx45R0Sz9w3jKzT | will-the-doj-charge-tesla-with-wire | Will the DOJ charge Tesla with wire fraud or securities fraud? | null | 1,715,203,110,542 | 1,746,766,740,000 | 1,746,898,932,833 | NO | 0.01 | 938.755557 |
N6mbT1vYBiwJawxq9pMe | will-the-icc-indict-netanyahu-for-w | Will the ICC indict Netanyahu for war crimes before January 1st 2025? | null | 1,715,200,714,579 | 1,735,682,340,000 | 1,736,666,259,426 | YES | 0.967841 | 6,534.055593 |
8NKZYiCVPrVdU7bWp7TF | will-i-be-happy-with-an-agent-publi | Will I be happy with an agent publishing research in my name without supervision by release of next-gen AGI? | null | 1,715,188,147,266 | 1,746,568,740,000 | 1,748,734,448,869 | NO | 0.101497 | 213.248136 |
lklSprIQt8r3N0tIvKyB | will-viihsou-be-unbanned-from-chess | Will Viih_Sou be unbanned from chess.com by the end of 2024? | null | 1,715,177,132,234 | 1,735,660,740,000 | 1,735,704,861,928 | NO | 0.04686 | 476.158035 |
X2D5r6vv3KSp6Q6Kd3ry | does-robert-f-kennedy-jr-really-hav | Did Robert F Kennedy Jr really have a worm in his brain? | null | 1,715,173,769,906 | 1,730,793,540,000 | 1,738,024,394,425 | YES | 0.9484 | 1,108.213641 |
EjxasBmztksDZRmvkXGZ | will-a-open-source-pure-mamaba-llm | Will a open source pure Mamaba LLM surpass 82 MMLU on MMLU (5-shot) before end of year 2024? | null | 1,715,154,296,508 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,771,238,860 | NO | 0.250136 | 75 |
5qR0unHbdQseHM0KYEud | will-meta-release-any-multimodal-mo | Will Meta release any multi-modal models at any weight paramters with both input and output not restricted to pure UTF-8 | null | 1,715,153,710,261 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,771,372,889 | YES | 0.546054 | 10 |
4y57ykvT7eIY4Wuty44z | will-meta-release-a-llama-3-405b-mu | Will Meta release a Llama 3 405B multi-modal open source before the end of 2024? | null | 1,715,153,506,830 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,771,252,755 | NO | 0.051499 | 5,782.699308 |
nAvTzimJUQkew3sqpOLU | will-the-median-home-sold-price-in | Will the median home sold price in San Francisco be higher in April 2025 than April 2024? | null | 1,715,153,313,684 | 1,747,378,740,000 | 1,750,217,842,103 | YES | 0.674764 | 4,429.837427 |
rUjrrLorbYIXqu2FtbPx | will-dwarkesh-patel-talk-to-destiny | Will Dwarkesh Patel interview Destiny on his show before the end of 2024? | null | 1,715,130,216,293 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,647,118 | NO | 0.0236 | 781.562915 |
UcZGKxo3j6uaHTy1iTcs | will-destiny-and-elon-musk-talk-in | Will Destiny and Elon Musk talk to each other in the same Twitter space before the end of 2024? | null | 1,715,129,930,823 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,967,978,281 | NO | 0.041155 | 6,434.116544 |
LPlgJvP46XtJo4t3az1v | will-i-make-usajmo-in-2025 | Will I make USAJMO in 2025? | null | 1,715,118,753,437 | 1,739,506,313,241 | 1,739,506,313,241 | YES | 0.982693 | 4,619.256541 |
bIIBQpv5JzG8ZL2cineW | will-nyc-have-used-at-least-115-gal | Will NYC have Used at least 115 gallons per person per day in 2024? | null | 1,715,105,238,749 | 1,737,573,474,531 | 1,737,573,474,531 | YES | 0.963054 | 670.348234 |
7PkTkEmxRjI0IoPrfV4B | will-the-202425-nfl-mvp-be-the-quar | Will the 2024-25 NFL MVP be the Quarterback of a Team With the 1 Seed? | null | 1,715,104,051,507 | 1,739,157,709,918 | 1,739,157,709,918 | NO | 0.01 | 8,399.867619 |
bmTSCtvB3jMFai8LA636 | will-the-m4based-macbook-macbook-ai | Will the M4-based MacBook / MacBook Air have an OLED screen option? | null | 1,715,102,699,015 | 1,741,187,392,635 | 1,741,187,392,635 | NO | 0.036592 | 797.508894 |
DJ4I9NYXs4HiyQs13jMy | will-the-amount-of-antijewish-hate | Will the amount of anti-jewish hate crimes in 2023 exceed 1,500? | null | 1,715,099,723,792 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,761,270,151 | YES | 0.984022 | 2,167.733377 |
Gk40iZQyfcg0muWxYJ1U | will-nyc-use-an-average-of-1-billio | Will NYC use an average of 1 Billion Gallons of water daily in the year 2024? | null | 1,715,055,636,479 | 1,748,227,413,216 | 1,748,227,413,216 | YES | 0.993025 | 1,067.65711 |
NzaSSWV8xHKVFPYTWMEx | will-i-take-apmo-2025-as-a-member-o | Will I take APMO 2025 as a member of the canadian team? | null | 1,715,048,658,172 | 1,740,009,391,816 | 1,740,009,391,816 | YES | 0.99 | 968.028837 |
DxKjfw8Qevh3Iw9grxYW | will-my-objections-to-were-all-gonn | Will "My Objections to "We’re All Gonna Die with El..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,715,038,134,495 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,597,258 | NO | 0.31 | 56.954746 |
x5G0BVjRUETXugzMBbR7 | will-a-gatekeeper-proof-of-concept | Will a gatekeeper proof of concept be at least informally published by mid year 2025? [ARIA Safeguarded Programme] | null | 1,715,035,919,544 | 1,751,435,940,000 | 1,751,900,335,054 | NO | 0.01 | 1,144.509339 |
NzVj3cWOQHiO48AFVlBb | will-any-major-freelancing-platform | Will any major freelancing platform (Freelancer.com, Upwork or Fiverr) introduce AI freelancers by end of 2024? | null | 1,715,031,490,371 | 1,735,649,940,000 | 1,735,692,209,512 | NO | 0.420578 | 84.574482 |
0ppyxJ35HqPUk07uHlJi | will-openai-build-launch-a-web-sear | Will openai build & launch a web search service that replaces google and bing search in their products (e.g. chatgpt)? | null | 1,715,030,345,522 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,743,082,634,308 | NO | 0.939167 | 401.074257 |
eJaszkCfuFMEEiuKDZPK | will-an-aipiloted-fighter-jet-of-us | Will an AI-piloted Fighter Jet of US origin see combat in Ukraine before March 2025? | null | 1,715,029,930,483 | 1,740,787,140,000 | 1,740,788,141,174 | NO | 0.01 | 10,453.484354 |
u48ZpYkDH1JZRhBRfWzs | will-cheese-ball-man-return-in-2024 | Will Cheese Ball Man return in 2024? | null | 1,715,025,731,938 | 1,735,793,940,000 | 1,739,315,198,007 | YES | 0.917384 | 259.236661 |
JEL9E4c7fg9J3JNUxMPT | will-we-resurrect-commitsto-with-co | Will we resurrect commits.to with commitments instantiated as markets? | null | 1,715,018,272,772 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,720,043,041 | NO | 0.296358 | 62.706215 |
RcRLFMimYmY29hCGgccz | will-trump-be-confined-in-2024 | Will Trump be confined in 2024? | null | 1,715,013,341,613 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,745,388,350 | NO | 0.01225 | 13,966.661071 |
AKyB6Ulr9sc0e9kaFJJV | will-trump-be-held-in-contempt-an-1 | Will Trump be held in contempt an 11th time in his New York criminal case? | null | 1,715,005,685,429 | 1,736,636,400,000 | 1,736,669,065,837 | NO | 0.010272 | 4,894.751591 |
cq4yKVCz7Pm2CiaxenOb | will-there-be-at-least-10000-worldw | Will there be at least 10,000 worldwide cases of human infection by HPAI H5N1 before 2025? | null | 1,715,004,412,490 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,742,191,390,230 | NO | 0.02754 | 15,018.237417 |
J1uMyT9n4dzxjlZ0b1ro | will-trump-violate-his-gag-order-fo | Will Trump violate his gag order for the 11th time? | null | 1,715,003,928,464 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,120,126 | NO | 0.083979 | 3,214.559177 |
4q6PQGwoezUlCqmYEZNz | will-any-horse-will-win-the-triple-0d3540fedecf | Will any horse will win the Triple Crown in 2025? | null | 1,715,002,156,850 | 1,747,622,595,746 | 1,747,622,595,746 | NO | 0.01 | 1,208.59497 |
Me0vA5gFYi1AcBwLS5Pr | sweet-sour-showdown-will-michigan-s-bb4443dfafa7 | Sweet & Sour Showdown: Will Michigan Sweet be priced higher than Wyoming Sour crude oil on Juneteenth 2025? | null | 1,714,970,104,421 | 1,750,391,940,000 | 1,750,644,337,897 | NO | 0.027505 | 530.398785 |
vf51Pr4kUbcMKP2Jr19K | will-someone-be-indicted-related-to-96c6c7baec50 | Will someone be indicted related to the death of John Barnett (Boeing whistleblower) by the end of 2024? | null | 1,714,969,942,013 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,655,667 | NO | 0.054697 | 344 |
4Y9DLNE1Gdu61yZBG7QL | will-someone-be-indicted-related-to | Will someone be indicted related to the death of Joshua Dean (2nd Boeing whistleblower) by the end of 2024? | null | 1,714,969,904,515 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,659,040 | NO | 0.053093 | 326.181631 |
OzYaZscphdV6E3xc67Pe | will-there-be-a-police-named-suspec-571f6227a209 | Will there be a police named suspect related to the death of Joshua Dean (2nd Boeing whistleblower) by the end of 2024? | null | 1,714,969,771,559 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,662,851 | NO | 0.03 | 499.241909 |
Zsv6OLMcIGrbXp0Bejai | will-congress-trump-proof-the-insur | Will Congress "Trump proof" the Insurrection Act? | null | 1,714,965,234,542 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,766,776,860 | NO | 0.06383 | 345.161792 |
5gdOJHOFmNhHQTiqPXk2 | will-destiny-join-a-twitter-spaces | Will Destiny join a Twitter Spaces room with Elon Musk, both as Speakers, in 2024? | null | 1,714,956,254,871 | 1,735,682,340,000 | 1,735,692,333,635 | NO | 0.04287 | 698.877072 |
gTPnnGFI4PjWKkTC8Ivv | will-users-be-able-to-sign-up-for-g | Will users be able to sign up for Grindr from Desktop by end of year? | null | 1,714,955,858,522 | 1,735,642,740,000 | 1,735,824,910,801 | NO | 0.072217 | 260 |
m1Gf6eCPgbiZx953izRE | will-the-republican-prez-candidate | Will the Republican prez. candidate increase his share of the two-party vote in North Dakota in 2024 relative to 2020? | null | 1,714,948,618,757 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,737,080,914 | YES | 0.561211 | 28 |
pXRpyP5lmXm4O67mgSkt | will-nintendos-successor-to-the-swi | Will Nintendo's successor to the Switch contain "Switch" in its name? | null | 1,714,944,618,708 | 1,737,045,714,651 | 1,737,045,714,651 | YES | 0.99 | 19,291.763518 |
6QRmzLDIdtJsIkVqWiuo | will-elon-musk-serve-time-in-prison | Will Elon Musk serve time in prison at any point in 2024? | null | 1,714,942,870,289 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,737,090,861 | NO | 0.01 | 3,724.733702 |
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