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11.6M
Oy6ys8ZqZn
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-Acgp2PE8S0
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Dec 11 than it closed on Dec 10?
null
1,733,856,362,607
1,733,950,985,143
1,733,950,985,143
YES
0.99
1,012.84458
RZPQEudNpA
has-scaling-hit-a-wall-who-will-win
Has scaling hit a wall? Who will win the debate between Jonathan Frankle and Dylan Patel at NeurIPS 2024?
null
1,733,855,893,607
1,733,990,340,000
1,735,067,168,517
YES
0.340378
1,953
U6nqz25hg5
will-the-canada-post-strike-end-in
Will the Canada Post strike end in 2024?
null
1,733,852,060,318
1,735,433,389,433
1,735,433,389,433
YES
0.989242
1,720.340122
OzyNlSpyL9
balancing-market
Will this market close between 25% and 75%
null
1,733,843,457,321
1,734,130,740,000
1,734,130,834,748
YES
0.616146
1,853.308208
UUt00ndIZ2
tug-of-war-9qsPg2z8PN
Tug of war
null
1,733,839,813,157
1,733,979,540,000
1,734,011,674,466
NO
0.189741
255.880026
AypOs6OZIZ
daily-coinflip-Qgc00NILNI
Daily coinflip
null
1,733,820,112,648
1,733,979,540,000
1,733,987,170,320
YES
0.496586
5,734
O8sNnC9lhE
will-mikheil-kavelashvili-be-electe
Will Mikheil Kavelashvili be elected as President of Georgia
null
1,733,810,432,650
1,734,232,948,959
1,734,232,948,959
YES
0.959286
4,643
5nS5nSSdSO
will-luigi-mangione-waive-extraditi
Will Luigi Mangione waive extradition?
null
1,733,807,009,163
1,734,627,576,821
1,734,627,576,821
YES
0.943829
879.844546
hESEUhlyU0
did-luigi-mangione-author-the-manif
Did Luigi Mangione author the manifesto 'The Allopathic Complex and Its Consequences' posted on Substack?
null
1,733,804,749,653
1,733,879,830,272
1,733,972,620,810
NO
0.074283
3,255
2ItOQ0ytlQ
will-we-hit-a-new-record-for-vancou-LpQnOcPSE8
Will we hit a new record for Vancouver's 8th Taco Tuesday?
null
1,733,803,362,993
1,733,903,940,000
1,733,948,121,854
NO
0.246154
75
pQtIz68EIL
will-this-post-from-manifolds-x-acc
Will this post from Manifold's X account be deleted within a week?
null
1,733,798,376,570
1,734,389,581,621
1,734,389,581,621
NO
0.020374
10,897.960358
ZOt8Qdh9sI
will-this-pull-request-take-down-th
Will this pull request take down the site or need major changes?
null
1,733,794,378,588
1,733,903,940,000
1,734,386,436,707
NO
0.043309
3,700
g805nul22A
will-any-new-videos-appear-on-luigi
Will any new videos appear on Luigi Mangione Youtube account?
null
1,733,783,919,154
1,733,785,980,752
1,733,785,980,752
NO
0.5
6,053.334335
N2ZthQOshZ
will-syria-have-a-new-president-wit
Will Syria have a new president within a week?
null
1,733,782,826,168
1,734,382,740,000
1,734,440,482,736
NO
0.034927
4,345.459388
NZRcsRQcI5
bill-belichick-hired-as-unc-head-co
Bill Belichick hired as UNC head coach before January 1st 2025
null
1,733,781,238,560
1,733,973,680,199
1,733,973,680,199
YES
0.99041
1,221.861573
Ant6dAhgLz
will-luigi-mangione-ultimately-be-t
Will Luigi Mangione ultimately be the actual shooter of Brian Thompson?
null
1,733,777,748,722
1,734,876,317,401
1,734,876,317,401
YES
0.978701
662.133048
qL9Pg9S0yI
will-there-be-evidence-showing-the
Will there be evidence showing the UnitedHealthcare shooter had a Manifold account by end of March 2025?
null
1,733,772,783,361
1,733,778,992,611
1,733,778,992,611
YES
0.98653
1,811.708562
ONuNA5Ec6C
will-a-manifold-user-be-charged-wit
Will a Manifold user be charged with the killing of UnitedHealth CEO Brian Thompson?
null
1,733,769,853,106
1,733,805,077,348
1,733,805,077,348
YES
0.962981
3,948.108865
gCQZ9qASL5
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-OSRnQPAnpP
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Dec 10 than it closed on Dec 9?
null
1,733,767,758,891
1,733,864,544,331
1,733,864,544,331
NO
0.01
1,044.287351
hCqhgI0tI8
will-penn-state-football-win-agains
Will Penn State football win against SMU at noon on December 21?
null
1,733,763,120,093
1,734,813,132,741
1,734,813,132,741
YES
0.99
9,645.329333
ScAhltZz9h
yes-hPpgR6q92n
yes
null
1,733,755,886,478
1,733,755,930,747
1,733,755,930,747
YES
0.969204
461
AEcEyANQOU
2024-ncaaf-gasparilla-bowl-will-flo
2024 NCAAF Gasparilla Bowl: Will Florida defeat Tulane?
null
1,733,754,762,588
1,734,740,877,195
1,734,740,877,195
YES
0.99
8,949.874371
6StUuRN5SC
will-game-9-of-the-fide-world-champ-IAAcdtggNP
Will Game 12 of the FIDE World Champion Gukesh vs Ding, result in a draw?
null
1,733,732,085,555
1,733,748,926,944
1,733,748,926,944
NO
0.023006
6,423
5QuUl2OP8I
identity-of-brian-thompsons-killer
Identity of Brian Thompsons killer known before 2024 is over?
null
1,733,724,029,549
1,733,771,059,314
1,733,771,059,314
YES
0.968
450
qSgIlNpI8z
will-bitcoin-hit-104k-in-december
Will Bitcoin hit $104K in December?
null
1,733,723,432,108
1,734,307,545,531
1,734,307,545,531
YES
0.99
1,811.724103
2ldL0tQ2u6
will-the-will-strutheo-slay-all-20
Will the "Will strutheo Slay all 20 Top Creators by the end of 2024?" market go to 10% tomorrow?
null
1,733,722,465,871
1,733,806,800,000
1,733,806,924,978
NO
0.01
9,090.967385
SEtn0LEPR8
will-magnus-carlson-repeat-as-the-c
Will Magnus Carlsen repeat as the chess.com Champions Chess Tour winner in 2024?
null
1,733,722,056,707
1,734,809,739,189
1,734,809,739,189
YES
0.99
12,238.016758
Sty9sslCEI
will-olaf-scholz-win-the-vote-of-co
Will Olaf Scholz win the vote of confidence?
null
1,733,716,497,956
1,734,710,797,505
1,734,710,797,505
NO
0.01334
760
QztPU6u62O
will-there-be-another-assassination-90uyNlC56d
Will there be another assassination of a fortune 500 executive before the UHC killer is caught?
null
1,733,695,124,855
1,733,839,766,426
1,733,839,766,426
NO
0.012607
15,090.194825
8y5uLqs5pq
tug-of-war-lRpIlzzy99
Tug of war
null
1,733,677,589,046
1,733,806,740,000
1,733,839,633,476
NO
0.312441
2,427.279285
u2LnC0ZQ5N
will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-S08slN8h8E
Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 61 and 62?
null
1,733,677,050,395
1,734,279,987,154
1,734,279,989,709
NO
0.4901
20
R5lu0Isn0U
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-upIyq2uR85
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1134 and 1135?
null
1,733,677,011,841
1,734,901,377,399
1,734,901,379,544
YES
0.509655
40
cQ89nR05hZ
did-bashar-alassad-die-in-an-plane
Did Bashar al-Assad die in a plane crash on December 7th (PST)?
null
1,733,632,888,901
1,733,690,289,902
1,733,690,289,902
NO
0.015089
12,017.897722
8g8hlRRcQA
ripple-above-239-on-december-13
Ripple above $2.39 on December 13?
null
1,733,610,565,201
1,734,411,540,000
1,735,403,948,792
YES
0.981826
635
5s909q9Au9
will-jimmy-carter-attend-the-trump
Will Jimmy Carter attend the Trump inauguration?
null
1,733,610,139,519
1,735,669,998,064
1,735,669,998,064
NO
0.01
979.11271
tsEyUSE2SU
is-damascus-going-to-fall-before-va
Is Damascus going to fall before Valentine's day 2025?
null
1,733,609,036,002
1,733,699,811,031
1,733,699,811,031
YES
0.99
2,024.966017
nQghEqSd56
will-weather-ruin-the-final-experim
Will weather ruin The Final Experiment according to Flat Earthers?
null
1,733,608,336,469
1,734,917,785,669
1,734,917,785,669
NO
0.01
1,192.487788
8d2gCnERs0
will-leclerc-get-more-points-then-s
Will Leclerc get more Points then Sainz at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
null
1,733,599,768,123
1,733,669,703,990
1,733,669,705,638
NO
0.01
9,483.965728
q8A6ldhqEL
will-manifold-lower-liquidity-for-i
Will Manifold lower liquidity for individual sports matches in 2024?
null
1,733,599,213,512
1,734,792,103,604
1,734,792,103,604
YES
0.5
9.999999
StL8t85tqO
tug-of-war-n5Z0QntStu
Tug of war
null
1,733,595,093,913
1,733,633,940,000
1,733,676,208,628
NO
0.151668
675.214993
9LzuNcUOcP
will-the-shooter-of-brian-thompson
Will the shooter of Brian Thompson of UnitedHealthcare be arrested by the end of February 2025?
null
1,733,572,408,460
1,733,776,420,559
1,733,776,420,559
YES
0.99
16,639.384182
UQsd66N9cC
will-i-be-impressed-by-the-work-of
Will I be impressed by the work of Jacob Barandes if I take the time to study it?
null
1,733,570,013,282
1,734,866,385,922
1,734,866,385,922
YES
0.5
0
Rq2dpAlUuZ
20-traders-on-this-market
20 traders on this Market?
null
1,733,569,412,317
1,733,703,706,006
1,733,703,706,006
YES
0.99
894.987437
qd5LlEuZgc
will-i-s-rank-armored-core-6-before
Will I S rank Armored Core 6 before the end of the year?
null
1,733,568,812,060
1,733,885,182,154
1,733,885,182,154
YES
0.307692
50
OQh2cCsz6N
will-btes-alleged-alts-be-banned
Will BTE's alleged alts be banned?
null
1,733,559,527,188
1,734,042,074,371
1,734,042,074,371
YES
0.99
1,052.484847
pd0h9lnLLt
will-montreal-have-a-white-christma
Will Montreal have a white Christmas in 2024?
null
1,733,552,543,922
1,735,490,681,588
1,735,491,402,174
NO
0.314459
5,742.354325
LuOgUgsLQI
will-the-sp-500-close-higher-on-fri-CNtQysOqsI
Will the S&P 500 close higher on Friday December 13th 2024 than it closed on Friday December 6th 2024?
null
1,733,539,510,262
1,734,100,200,000
1,734,142,016,607
NO
0.724873
74
nUng5A0C0O
will-openai-release-o2-as-part-of-t
Will OpenAI release o2 (or o3) as part of the 12 days of Christmas?
null
1,733,537,208,429
1,734,734,174,942
1,734,819,275,806
NO
0.145053
110,361.782255
0E5lZ5qp8Z
will-i-piss-today
will i piss today
null
1,733,534,180,012
1,733,534,196,965
1,733,534,196,965
NO
0.394073
24
O6ZLpES6gt
will-i-poop-today
will i poop today
null
1,733,534,094,093
1,733,534,128,152
1,733,534,128,152
NO
0.41389
19
d6pnpuhshq
11-traders-on-this-market
11 traders on this Market?
null
1,733,532,974,043
1,733,550,879,755
1,733,550,879,755
YES
0.99
1,059.124897
5NyIO26ltt
will-assad-flee-syria-by-2025
Will Assad flee Syria by 2025?
null
1,733,532,465,277
1,733,647,692,567
1,733,681,876,266
YES
0.83964
26,546.12853
80O2qERCZg
will-the-daniel-penny-trial-be-decl
Will the Daniel Penny trial be declared a mistrial?
null
1,733,527,812,118
1,733,765,270,599
1,733,765,270,599
NO
0.078914
2,676.39495
nQQlg655uU
will-the-amazing-digital-circus-epi-pnCuCSntzU
Will The Amazing Digital Circus Episode 4 reach 40 million views by the end of December?
null
1,733,522,396,310
1,734,637,028,605
1,734,637,028,605
YES
0.989932
8,916
ncc5ZOQS2h
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-Qlc2zEgI28
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Dec 9 than it closed on Dec 6?
null
1,733,518,126,318
1,733,778,130,702
1,733,778,130,702
NO
0.018191
676
lhARUIRS0y
will-gemini-release-a-model-that-ou
Will Gemini release a model that outperforms or ties 4o on lmarena (all categories) before Christmas?
null
1,733,505,306,931
1,733,901,462,736
1,733,901,462,736
YES
0.909399
240
lUh6s5uP62
will-tsla-reach-475-before-8pm-est-UUEPEsu95L
Will TSLA reach $475 before 8pm EST on 8/8/2025?
null
1,733,504,368,432
1,734,464,063,109
1,734,464,063,109
YES
0.982421
1,054.049248
hAy58dCpCs
will-the-cdc-announce-that-an-epide
Will the CDC announce that an epidemic of H5N1 "swine flu" exists anywhere in the United States during 2025?
null
1,733,496,989,454
1,733,497,104,677
1,733,497,104,677
NO
0.5
0
UqEyt5SsEg
daily-coinflip-gZddIyZc6n
Daily coinflip 🎉
null
1,733,474,086,368
1,733,806,740,000
1,733,815,371,157
YES
0.5
9,595.219432
CQLRduu0RE
is-the-killer-of-brian-thompson-the-2ylUzuN0c2
Is the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, age 28 or younger?
null
1,733,460,635,242
1,733,844,293,598
1,733,844,293,598
YES
0.979355
2,089.289257
0AAI0zsph9
tug-of-war-CyRnUs9558
Tug of war
null
1,733,457,219,849
1,733,547,540,000
1,733,595,031,186
NO
0.338369
548.915997
5pd5C9ROq6
will-i-get-the-highest-amount-of-re
Will I get the highest amount of research points this semester?
null
1,733,457,067,569
1,734,054,438,228
1,734,054,438,228
YES
0.99
3,813.028632
8OdugR6hRO
are-these-two-supposed-pictures-of
Are these two supposed pictures of the United Healthcare CEO assassin actually different people?
null
1,733,452,110,700
1,735,360,056,732
1,735,360,056,732
NO
0.007962
56,511.975885
Z2gUZgOqt0
will-the-unitedhealthcare-ceo-assas
Will the UnitedHealthcare CEO assassin turn himself in before EOY 2024?
null
1,733,451,715,233
1,734,036,659,411
1,734,036,659,411
NO
0.101555
1,239.46757
pgIuEZZP2g
will-bayesian-die-from-the-carbon-m
Will @Bayesian die from the carbon monoxide leak?
null
1,733,450,938,932
1,733,521,470,633
1,733,521,470,633
NO
0.05
362
PSU0hCclcS
will-jimmy-carter-blaze-through-apr
Will Jimmy Carter blaze through April 20, 2025?
null
1,733,450,533,140
1,735,518,266,163
1,735,518,266,163
NO
0.009722
109,217.392563
0LP8COgAgn
will-bitcoin-hit-100000-between-dec
Will bitcoin hit $100,000 between December 6, 2024 and December 31, 2024?
null
1,733,440,043,944
1,733,523,721,502
1,733,523,721,502
YES
0.99
9,293.901427
C6RIRRqgug
will-the-killer-of-brian-thompson-b-A8RcqsRghp--cash
Will the killer of Brian Thompson be arrested by the end of 2024?
null
1,733,437,201,033
1,733,775,767,666
1,733,775,903,769
YES
0.99
1,438.361
8592sqdEcn
will-shavkat-rakhmonov-defeat-ian-g
Will Shavkat Rakhmonov defeat Ian Garry at UFC 310?
null
1,733,435,586,269
1,733,636,471,020
1,733,636,471,020
YES
0.989677
9,472.455452
0nh6gOn5QN
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-nzNICOnuOn
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Dec 6 than it closed on Dec 5?
null
1,733,432,673,303
1,733,518,927,159
1,733,518,927,159
YES
0.957151
414.999998
PZ6qcZ0zhN
will-the-tsunami-be-visible-from-th
Will the tsunami be visible from the top of the Berkeley Campanile?
null
1,733,428,881,708
1,733,465,017,368
1,733,465,017,368
NO
0.01
894.987437
OgQghs0Au2
will-jimmy-carter-live-to-see-the-s
Will Jimmy Carter live to see the Switch 2 reveal?
null
1,733,428,141,638
1,735,518,269,618
1,735,518,269,618
NO
0.010924
14,214.655136
uhn9IOLNq9
reported-damage-in-san-francisco-du
Reported damage in San Francisco due to earthquake or tsunami by December 6, 2024
null
1,733,427,767,858
1,733,490,458,243
1,733,490,458,243
NO
0.545686
2,547.222534
nlNAl9CSRl
casualties-in-san-francisco-due-to
Casualties in San Francisco due to tsunami on 12/5/2024 greater than 10
null
1,733,426,789,600
1,733,558,340,000
1,733,600,433,908
NO
0.013012
1,061
Ih9qyA6EhZ
will-manchester-city-win-at-least-5--cash
Will Manchester City win at least 5 matches in December?
null
1,733,426,152,889
1,734,288,015,251
1,734,381,971,353
NO
0.019293
324.128484
LyEIhOAzLS
will-a-tsunami-kill-10-people-in-ca
Will a tsunami kill >10 people in California in the next 10 days?
null
1,733,425,302,777
1,734,335,940,000
1,734,370,895,640
NO
0.01
53,696.366972
Cllpy5Edzt
will-i-regret-not-moving-to-the-hig
Should I get to higher ground RIGHT NOW
null
1,733,424,841,680
1,733,455,522,769
1,733,455,522,769
NO
0.011327
11,759.811452
c89zZAt5IA
will-los-ratones-win-the-nno-cup
Will Los Ratones win the NNO cup?
null
1,733,424,431,657
1,733,731,140,000
1,733,797,418,144
YES
0.742931
700
AAACQ9udIQ
was-there-russian-meddling-in-the-2
Was there Russian meddling in the 2024 Romanian presidential election?
null
1,733,411,345,933
1,733,511,575,163
1,733,511,575,163
YES
0.99
8,949.874371
5CtytsgZZn
2024-ncaaf-mountain-west-conference
2024 NCAAF 🏈 Mountain West Conference Championship: Will Boise State WIN against UNLV?
null
1,733,409,361,693
1,733,545,624,968
1,733,545,624,968
YES
0.99
8,949.874371
ylccNQLs5u
a-provider-of-ipl-photofacials-will
A provider of IPL Photofacials will be posted in the comments by December 24, 2024
null
1,733,406,989,012
1,734,011,184,002
1,734,011,184,002
YES
0.590164
200
NqOy9yO66Q
will-the-syrian-government-control-COL59Ig2An
Will the Syrian government control a contiguous area between Damascus and Latakia until 31 March 2025?
null
1,733,406,162,967
1,733,686,476,060
1,733,686,476,060
NO
0.012345
927.557833
gNA6PPRsOR
will-the-syrian-government-control
Will the Syrian government control a contiguous area between Damascus and Latakia until the end of 2024
null
1,733,406,006,279
1,733,686,494,566
1,733,686,494,566
NO
0.01333
845.170386
hyypdOlUz6
short-fuse-will-john-mahama-be-elec
(Short Fuse) Will John Mahama be elected the President of Ghana?
null
1,733,405,056,585
1,733,792,028,394
1,733,792,028,394
YES
0.99
4,885.569465
t000825p8t
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-p5S6OsnzRA
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Dec 5 than it closed on Dec 4?
null
1,733,403,560,629
1,733,432,508,090
1,733,432,508,090
NO
0.123261
196.949006
uulE22E5Qd
bitcoin-above-100k-on-dec-14
Bitcoin above $100K on Dec 14?
null
1,733,385,087,719
1,734,167,257,912
1,734,167,257,912
YES
0.990915
32,863.220971
gEu0UgdPA2
will-this-market-get-at-least-100-t
Will this market get at least 100 traders?
null
1,733,379,686,380
1,733,711,530,159
1,733,711,530,159
YES
0.99
22,129.432178
u29RPdENq0
will-the-unitedhealthcare-ceos-kill
Will the UnitedHealthcare CEO's killer be arrested before Pete Hegseth withdraws from the Trump nomination?
null
1,733,376,191,490
1,734,023,720,293
1,734,023,720,293
YES
0.99
1,818.325288
tcNRECcny9
will-bitcoin-go-lower-than-100k-bef
Will Bitcoin go lower than $100k before the end of 2024?
null
1,733,369,181,105
1,733,431,506,903
1,733,431,506,903
YES
0.990694
932.522484
Q8nIIzUPu5
will-unitedhealthcare-ceo-brian-tho
Will UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson's assassin be apprehended by Monday December 9th?
null
1,733,352,121,306
1,733,720,626,151
1,733,720,626,151
NO
0.010352
175,015.636358
yRRglglpAN
will-kraven-the-hunter-have-a-rotte
Will "Kraven the Hunter" have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >50%?
null
1,733,351,484,099
1,734,767,940,000
1,734,935,268,687
NO
0.023312
1,072.123948
NZcLNsh896
will-lord-of-the-rings-war-of-the-r
Will "Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim" have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score at least 60%?
null
1,733,350,698,360
1,734,767,940,000
1,734,935,247,777
NO
0.034752
960.118623
Cn8q6SscC6
will-the-killer-of-brian-thompson-b-A8RcqsRghp
Will the killer of Brian Thompson be arrested by the end of 2024?
null
1,733,344,763,637
1,733,775,767,666
1,733,775,767,666
YES
0.99
118,850.851918
c0Anqtuh2l
will-the-united-healthcare-ceo-shoo
Will the United Healthcare CEO shooter be caught by June 2025?
null
1,733,342,571,336
1,733,890,873,475
1,733,890,873,475
YES
0.99363
64,207.162107
I5unZc6O8n
will-this-stegosaurus-dinosaur-skel
Will this stegosaurus (dinosaur) skeleton sell for >$10 million at its upcoming Christie's auction?
null
1,733,340,047,259
1,734,011,940,000
1,735,665,157,571
NO
0.526342
85.054369
2RQA89hyuI
tug-of-war-hC9QCqtUsc
Tug of war
null
1,733,330,162,497
1,733,461,140,000
1,733,461,270,970
NO
0.281319
1,392.119688
ISAphSINc2
murderer-of-unitedhealthcare-ceo-br
Murderer of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson caught before January 3, 2025
null
1,733,327,504,488
1,733,771,103,193
1,733,771,103,193
YES
0.99
27,869.484753
UdzPIhttR6
will-game-9-of-the-fide-world-champ
Will Game 9 of the FIDE World Champion Gukesh vs Ding, result in a draw?
null
1,733,325,539,431
1,733,411,199,109
1,733,411,199,109
YES
0.989821
966
OCOsCnSRt9
will-i-get-sick-again-with-diarrhea
Will I get sick again with diarrhea in India?
null
1,733,298,435,784
1,735,120,559,072
1,735,120,559,072
YES
0.67221
66.061482
gl0dcc09Nz
daily-coinflip-ql88h5UdE0
Daily coinflip
null
1,733,291,663,148
1,733,461,140,000
1,733,472,072,582
YES
0.505438
4,976.107824