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UpNRSZPgLp | will-vucic-flee-like-assad | Will Vučić flee like Assad? | null | 1,733,951,696,377 | 1,751,362,110,587 | 1,751,362,110,587 | NO | 0.01 | 1,120.676403 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
R80stq0EO9 | china-hasalready-had-access-to-gpt4 | China has/already had access to GPT-4 weights; proof before 2025 | null | 1,733,321,841,311 | 1,735,689,600,000 | 1,736,441,917,698 | NO | 0.051153 | 3,567.127788 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
6hSlnszqOO | will-o3-pro-be-released-before-apri | Will o3 pro be released before April? | null | 1,738,881,404,712 | 1,743,544,740,000 | 1,743,551,043,886 | NO | 0.01 | 2,217.932251 | Technology | Mobile & Consumer Electronics |
I9lzNuRzcO | bitcoin-hits-110000-on-coinbase-bef | Bitcoin hits $110,000 on Coinbase before June 30 UTC? | null | 1,750,748,761,043 | 1,751,269,378,012 | 1,751,269,378,012 | NO | 0.01 | 2,573.326164 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
96Ch09h5sp | will-joe-biden-pardon-henry-cuellar | Will Joe Biden pardon Henry Cuellar? | null | 1,730,966,527,677 | 1,737,514,964,847 | 1,737,514,964,847 | NO | 0.01 | 9,956.396821 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
5LcNdNIQRE | will-the-rams-trade-matthew-staffor | Will the Rams trade Matthew Stafford by May 7, 2025? | null | 1,739,569,111,963 | 1,746,763,140,000 | 1,746,790,987,595 | NO | 0.01 | 9,405.288369 | Sports | Professional Sports |
h8PNpI5q0p | will-my-reddit-post-manifold-tips-a | Will my reddit post "Manifold Tips and Tricks" get > 100 karma? | null | 1,731,867,036,440 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,759,751,007 | NO | 0.012005 | 8,332.387469 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
Z0luy6nsQS | bitcoin-120k-by-q1-2025 | Bitcoin $120K by Q1 2025? | null | 1,732,002,331,002 | 1,743,490,740,000 | 1,743,492,725,610 | NO | 0.01 | 80,595.624688 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
nPcRZU0P5N | will-volodymyr-zelenskyy-be-photogr | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be photographed wearing a suit before May 1st, 2025? | null | 1,741,039,999,187 | 1,746,169,140,000 | 1,746,393,063,555 | NO | 0.01 | 484,887.234499 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
3pz9ldxhye | will-i-saw-the-tv-glow-be-nominated | Will I Saw the TV Glow be nominated for any of the six major awards at the 97th Academy Awards? | null | 1,724,788,443,140 | 1,737,641,173,018 | 1,737,641,173,018 | NO | 0.019469 | 6,129 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
jdilycfsoh | will-will-the-growing-deer-prion-ep | Will "Will the growing deer prion epidemic spread t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,024,739,575 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,976,239 | NO | 0.435522 | 2,361.147744 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
4nlpu019vj | will-trump-publicly-mention-agi-or | Will Trump publicly mention AGI or Superintelligence before 2025? | null | 1,727,289,168,320 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,724,192,868 | NO | 0.035663 | 6,569.198742 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
znhERctQyl | will-alexander-volkanovski-defeat-d | Will Alexander Volkanovski defeat Diego Lopes at UFC 314? | null | 1,740,506,763,471 | 1,744,578,959,175 | 1,744,578,959,175 | YES | 0.99 | 67,517.633806 | Sports | Individual Sports |
8Cuc20RL5y | greta-thunberg-deported-from-israel | Greta Thunberg deported from Israel before June 16, 2025 | null | 1,749,468,088,007 | 1,749,542,678,936 | 1,749,542,678,936 | YES | 0.989613 | 1,246.926522 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
cdhtuAnnU0 | senator-mike-lee-resigns-before-jul | Senator Mike Lee resigns before July? | null | 1,750,030,145,350 | 1,751,327,940,000 | 1,751,330,038,302 | NO | 0.010329 | 1,041.138963 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
NlggEy5AyC | will-proof-team-top-11-at-mathcount | will proof team top 11 at mathcounts state | null | 1,740,938,989,938 | 1,742,681,505,952 | 1,742,681,505,952 | YES | 0.99 | 1,036.311021 | Sports | Team Sports |
8pNIghgSPu | bitcoin-above-95k-on-may-10 | Bitcoin above $95K on May 10? | null | 1,746,482,088,451 | 1,746,913,268,167 | 1,746,913,268,167 | YES | 0.992794 | 26,160.543039 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
U06h5Ey06Z | will-jayden-daniels-win-rookie-of-t | Will Jayden Daniels win Rookie of the Year? | null | 1,736,705,780,563 | 1,738,902,924,458 | 1,738,902,924,458 | YES | 0.99 | 2,016.967175 | Sports | Professional Sports |
r3c29h8106 | will-thailand-formally-join-brics-i | Will Thailand formally join BRICS in 2024? | null | 1,718,736,171,305 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,857,114,044 | NO | 0.040435 | 7,257.576135 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
2RIAQSUU2Q | kash-patel-fbi-director | Kash Patel FBI Director by Jan 31, 2025? | null | 1,731,549,890,963 | 1,738,396,740,000 | 1,738,437,705,290 | NO | 0.01 | 32,749.7912 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
7ZPAWBfmAEVtmSU1b0sC | will-manifold-help-me-pivot-my-care | Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,959,607,998 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,932,329,223 | NO | 0.440678 | 13,801.12202 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
ztdnPqSpS8 | will-nonhuman-intelligence-become-a | Will non-human intelligence become a leading "mainstream media" theory for the cause of the "drones" before end of 2024? | null | 1,734,202,072,777 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,737,748,955 | NO | 0.03893 | 6,368.829884 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
Eh9OzUlQNy | will-i-make-usamo-2025 | Will I make USAMO 2025 | null | 1,732,637,972,112 | 1,741,130,498,974 | 1,741,130,498,974 | YES | 0.961352 | 1,187.116342 | Sports | Individual Sports |
ndUgsdQdIn | will-i-believe-in-100-days-that-the | Will I believe in 100 days that the $100 billion statement by Elon Musk is accurate? | null | 1,739,115,864,604 | 1,747,781,940,000 | 1,748,265,424,306 | NO | 0.041559 | 9,151.011685 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
7OAsOZv8QahwdewRy0gs | will-we-see-any-cp0-member-in-chapt-f833c4cb9781 | Will we see any cp0 member in chapter 1115? | null | 1,715,267,714,440 | 1,716,501,540,000 | 1,751,069,680,958 | YES | 0.451975 | 8,273.864989 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
Iu5gzIP8Od | will-andrew-cuomo-announce-he-is-ru | Will Andrew Cuomo announce he is running for NYC mayor by the end of January? | null | 1,737,316,695,220 | 1,738,472,340,000 | 1,738,472,574,209 | NO | 0.01 | 1,000.526121 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
LNAnAUINO6 | will-trump-end-the-russiaukraine-wa-RAy2L5I05I | Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 weeks of his inauguration? | null | 1,739,280,443,863 | 1,751,925,540,000 | 1,751,950,409,044 | NO | 0.01 | 117,758.190057 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
CEpNPhhpAy | iaea-confirms-russian-responsibilit | IAEA confirms Russian responsibility for Chernobyl drone attack by April 1st 2025 | null | 1,739,558,847,453 | 1,743,465,600,000 | 1,743,691,098,812 | NO | 0.021619 | 6,633.931799 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
ycS8LRIAEy | will-mark-rober-post-a-video-by-jun | Will Mark Rober post a video by June 19th | null | 1,748,901,847,355 | 1,750,366,961,450 | 1,750,366,961,450 | NO | 0.06 | 2,841.976726 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
AEzO2Pzysg | iran-nuclear-deal-in-2-months | iran nuclear deal in 2 months | null | 1,742,405,237,972 | 1,747,713,540,000 | 1,747,758,803,636 | NO | 0.01 | 11,931.726982 | Geopolitics | International Relations |
PZ5n6QNUu6 | wwill-nvidia-outperform-the-sp-500 | Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2025? | null | 1,738,357,847,240 | 1,751,439,540,000 | 1,751,471,131,403 | YES | 0.991185 | 1,718.415614 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
Z60Q8tdNtZ | will-any-of-trumps-cabinet-be-confi | Will any of Trump's Cabinet be confirmed by the Senate on Inauguration Day? | null | 1,733,399,546,445 | 1,737,418,764,582 | 1,737,418,764,582 | YES | 0.97395 | 5,869.999988 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
QpplzhlQ6c | will-the-plurality-of-zvis-june-202 | Will the plurality of Zvi's June 2025 AI use be from OpenAI? | null | 1,747,320,485,030 | 1,751,414,340,000 | 1,751,415,982,830 | NO | 0.249141 | 5,091.242025 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
CItSdhcnys | nuggets-win-tomorrow | nuggets win tomorrow | null | 1,746,912,426,340 | 1,746,912,581,455 | 1,746,912,581,455 | YES | 0.547738 | 1,004.618676 | Sports | Professional Sports |
ngp7nej6iz | will-the-president-inaugurated-be-d--cash | Will the president inaugurated differ from [Trump] the winner of the 2024 presidential election first called by AP? | null | 1,728,349,181,386 | 1,737,419,166,517 | 1,737,577,444,271 | NO | 0.007937 | 2,172.780786 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
6nfdcra9w5 | will-donald-trump-win-the-republica-d6s2ags4m9 | Will Donald Trump NOT be inaugurated? | null | 1,719,009,322,679 | 1,737,476,219,363 | 1,737,476,219,363 | NO | 0.01 | 189,779.668901 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
pEgqAPhEPs | will-the-referenced-market-resolve | Will the referenced market resolve before 2/19? | null | 1,739,848,032,311 | 1,739,951,517,843 | 1,739,951,517,843 | NO | 0.01 | 1,497.94971 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
5xu604kutx | will-bangladesh-hold-new-general-el | Will Bangladesh hold new general elections in the next 6 months? | null | 1,722,881,924,303 | 1,738,780,140,000 | 1,738,787,006,591 | NO | 0.01 | 60,739.360925 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
RlC5EZQSR0 | daily-coinflip-0Z9PIA9I8p | Daily Coinflip | null | 1,751,277,359,617 | 1,751,428,740,000 | 1,751,457,410,392 | YES | 0.500945 | 2,399.772509 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
ZOS0sNnzQ6 | russiaukraine-ceasefire-by-easter | Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by Easter? | null | 1,742,737,047,371 | 1,745,193,540,000 | 1,745,194,925,628 | NO | 0.010064 | 7,296.772369 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
O8O5UEQh5A | will-this-question-close-on-a-prime | Will this question close on a prime number of traders? (closes in one day) | null | 1,742,012,853,752 | 1,742,183,940,000 | 1,742,220,123,098 | NO | 0.005638 | 1,897.733145 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
O5R9IAuhIL | will-a-congressconfirmed-2025-cabin | Will a Congress-confirmed 2025 cabinet pick resign or be removed before June 30, 2025? | null | 1,736,518,607,062 | 1,751,425,900,928 | 1,751,425,900,928 | NO | 0.012547 | 1,307.972724 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
pLIcdcEgIt | daily-coinflip-C8plNlSzRZ | Daily coinflip | null | 1,741,551,642,845 | 1,741,665,540,000 | 1,741,681,682,177 | NO | 0.51 | 3,624.215706 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
lSpAtILdIu | will-south-korea-be-under-martial-l | Will South Korea be under martial law on January 1st 2025? | null | 1,733,235,197,547 | 1,735,624,800,000 | 1,735,765,904,856 | NO | 0.015484 | 11,710.082798 | Geopolitics | Regional Affairs |
pRcc8UgNU8 | kilmar-abrego-garcia-returned-home | Kilmar Abrego Garcia returned home by judge's deadline? | null | 1,744,037,143,285 | 1,744,070,340,000 | 1,744,071,798,204 | NO | 0.026243 | 5,100 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
UOUEgL2qqO | will-mats-applications-open-in-marc | Will MATS applications open in March? | null | 1,742,146,024,703 | 1,742,490,400,313 | 1,742,490,400,313 | YES | 0.991538 | 10,677.656333 | Technology | Computing & Software |
9gCC60y6Ed | bbc-reports-american-deaths-from-ir | BBC reports American deaths from Iranian attacks in June 2025? | null | 1,750,719,473,888 | 1,751,353,200,001 | 1,751,392,972,730 | NO | 0.022829 | 62,546.89123 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
0uguLINUCd | will-my-usamo-score-be-higher-than | Will my USAMO score be higher than David's USAJMO score? | null | 1,741,884,084,829 | 1,745,442,422,564 | 1,745,442,422,564 | NO | 0.00941 | 12,988.521375 | Sports | Individual Sports |
6gn68nZSAh | will-musk-actually-bring-a-sink-int | Will Musk actually bring a sink into the Oval Office after inauguration? | null | 1,731,182,697,771 | 1,740,124,740,000 | 1,748,180,552,042 | NO | 0.012985 | 14,197.414454 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
6RZ99CpUPt | will-trump-coin-official-trump-surp | Will $Trump coin (Official Trump) surpass the fully diluted valuation of $DOGE (Dogecoin) by April 2025? | null | 1,737,268,840,666 | 1,737,277,478,164 | 1,737,277,478,164 | YES | 0.961069 | 4,450 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
s7z05zlksn | will-grok-3-release-before-mamma-mi | Will Grok 3 release before Mamma Mia 3? | null | 1,724,644,209,504 | 1,740,369,232,075 | 1,740,369,232,075 | YES | 0.984939 | 1,102.006261 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
eg6pdxigjh | will-david-zaslav-resign-or-be-fire | Will David Zaslav remain CEO and president of Warner Bros. Discovery for all of 2024? | null | 1,723,100,226,285 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,735,714,014,113 | YES | 0.99 | 10,494.379328 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
6QRmzLDIdtJsIkVqWiuo | will-elon-musk-serve-time-in-prison | Will Elon Musk serve time in prison at any point in 2024? | null | 1,714,942,870,289 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,737,090,861 | NO | 0.01 | 3,724.733702 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
PUgOn8z6yt | another-us-military-action-against | Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? | null | 1,750,562,216,623 | 1,750,651,288,701 | 1,750,651,288,701 | NO | 0.048429 | 6,605.117787 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
qjtbjiu91k | is-ukraines-offensive-in-the-kursk | Is Ukraine's offensive in the Kursk region a diversion? | null | 1,723,576,390,831 | 1,735,738,944,441 | 1,735,738,944,441 | NO | 0.09674 | 4,159.737289 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
4y57ykvT7eIY4Wuty44z | will-meta-release-a-llama-3-405b-mu | Will Meta release a Llama 3 405B multi-modal open source before the end of 2024? | null | 1,715,153,506,830 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,771,252,755 | NO | 0.051499 | 5,782.699308 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
u0Un0c55PR | will-manifolds-users-find-a-prompt | Will Manifold's users find a prompt to make AI assisted questions draw an ASCII horse in June? | null | 1,748,687,707,062 | 1,751,320,740,000 | 1,751,368,312,696 | NO | 0.047086 | 5,904.951704 | Technology | Computing & Software |
2ShOQLlshh | short-fuse-will-i-be-able-to-get-a | [short fuse] Will I be able to get a Nintendo Switch 2 preorder on the first day? | null | 1,745,451,472,886 | 1,745,510,732,738 | 1,745,510,732,738 | YES | 0.99 | 2,580.034286 | Technology | Gaming |
qCEd5uROsc | will-there-be-at-least-one-uci-cycl | Will there be at least one UCI cycling professional road race in the Netherlands before 1 September 2025? | null | 1,732,734,101,288 | 1,745,207,075,998 | 1,745,207,075,998 | YES | 0.99 | 11,296.122765 | Sports | Individual Sports |
tt00NhtZzp | ras2025-will-samsung-feature-smart | RAS2025: Will Samsung feature smart glasses at the Unpacked event? | null | 1,736,520,151,471 | 1,737,500,399,000 | 1,737,639,262,664 | NO | 0.896888 | 6,636.632953 | Technology | Mobile & Consumer Electronics |
5SId2zn5hI | will-donald-trump-repay-elon-musks | Will Donald Trump repay Elon Musk's backing in good faith? | null | 1,730,939,292,568 | 1,740,630,210,963 | 1,740,630,210,963 | YES | 0.99 | 201,564.918435 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
z8l9ZA0INE | will-trump-impose-any-sort-of-tarif-gySLNnA8Rq | Will Trump impose any sort of Tariff on Mexico by the end of February? | null | 1,737,436,971,005 | 1,740,709,920,000 | 1,741,185,790,416 | NO | 0.01 | 15,587.989948 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
0NdUnhR8A8 | will-i-double-my-net-worth-by-febru | Will I double my net worth by February 2025? | null | 1,734,099,887,511 | 1,737,387,901,609 | 1,737,387,901,609 | YES | 0.992068 | 2,193.916544 | Finance | Personal Finance |
oss1pml9cq | will-there-be-a-disaster-this-year | Will there be a disaster this year with an economic cost of over $100 billion as of December 31, 2024? | null | 1,721,237,425,837 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,739,773,068,257 | NO | 0.033519 | 19,395.937079 | Finance | Economic Indicators |
ES0RLLsPgg | will-i-win-the-open-weight-division | Will I win the open weight division of my jiu jitsu tournament? | null | 1,737,391,381,929 | 1,739,099,109,497 | 1,739,099,109,497 | NO | 0.803768 | 1,436.139262 | Sports | Individual Sports |
1u51akc5nz | will-astronauts-sunita-williams-and | Will astronauts Sunita Williams and Barry Wilmore return to Earth before the end of February 2025? | null | 1,727,215,442,658 | 1,740,808,740,000 | 1,741,197,672,259 | NO | 0.014729 | 8,396.664074 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
2Q9ZINquCs | will-bitcoin-fall-below-100k-by-jun | Will Bitcoin fall below $100k by June 30th? | null | 1,748,313,149,273 | 1,750,690,476,519 | 1,750,690,476,519 | YES | 0.99 | 25,078.006744 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
CnLZz0pqRZ | apple-stock-closes-above-210-on-jun | Apple stock closes above $210 on June 27? | null | 1,750,261,989,607 | 1,750,676,400,000 | 1,751,560,503,946 | NO | 0.08 | 4,400.161728 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
lywrojwurm | will-mira-murati-work-at-an-ai-lab | Will Mira Murati work at an AI lab at the end of Q2 2025? | null | 1,727,293,512,342 | 1,751,439,540,000 | 1,751,439,892,064 | YES | 0.99 | 22,571.123783 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
2IU5ZPqsUn | grok-35-available-before-june | Grok 3.5 available before June? | null | 1,748,023,207,645 | 1,748,757,540,000 | 1,748,760,385,604 | NO | 0.018157 | 9,625.180732 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
0IyyugAzz5 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-lRsILtuygy | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb 14 than it closed on Feb 13? | null | 1,739,540,037,444 | 1,739,602,998,214 | 1,739,602,998,214 | NO | 0.009445 | 13,494.002424 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
gEQygUsypE | will-tiktok-be-on-the-app-store-by | Will TikTok be on the App Store by Friday? | null | 1,737,505,885,970 | 1,737,716,340,000 | 1,737,825,161,156 | NO | 0.01 | 12,759.954307 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
4dxz1c7p8f | will-toyota-announce-a-sixth-genera-xdnasn9gdf | Will Toyota announce a sixth generation RAV4 in 2024? | null | 1,724,097,866,556 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,746,171,934 | NO | 0.026271 | 89,469.686022 | Technology | Mobile & Consumer Electronics |
LhgZ9ZqU0E | will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-yh25SpQ5ER | Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 66 and 67? | null | 1,737,904,849,227 | 1,738,510,482,757 | 1,738,510,487,945 | NO | 0.210023 | 1,260.574 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
j8OZxOzhPPkqih5hdIUY | did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory-8d38660948d1 | Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? | null | 1,715,707,178,633 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,735,711,454,603 | NO | 0.211221 | 16,797.048082 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
S5SdSUqIS9 | will-mathieu-van-der-poel-lead-the | Will Mathieu van der Poel lead the 2025 Criterium du Dauphine after Stage 4? | null | 1,749,615,210,411 | 1,749,650,400,000 | 1,749,660,871,352 | NO | 0.322954 | 1,372.428571 | Sports | Individual Sports |
8NLypCtqpN | in-february-will-the-israel-defence | In February, will the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) carry out ≥5 fatal airstrikes in Gaza whilst a ceasefire is active? | null | 1,737,124,534,364 | 1,740,787,140,000 | 1,743,534,717,060 | NO | 0.231063 | 4,755.216204 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
yPPdunqCIP | will-the-standard-deviation-of-the | Will the standard deviation of the bets on this question exceed 80? | null | 1,742,232,499,734 | 1,747,457,940,000 | 1,747,610,804,865 | YES | 0.990851 | 2,031.909207 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
lRZgUUl8As | iranian-rial-reaches-1-million-to-o | Iranian rial reaches 1 million to one USD in unofficial markets by end of 2025 | null | 1,734,542,446,989 | 1,742,304,638,708 | 1,742,304,638,708 | YES | 0.77941 | 1,059.706558 | Finance | Economic Indicators |
yQQg6lU6O9 | will-the-sp-500-recover-by-eoy | Will the S&P 500 recover by EOY? | null | 1,741,973,308,352 | 1,751,054,768,126 | 1,751,054,768,126 | YES | 0.99 | 16,909.72515 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
oOXo53dEmCvcKkiXnPLa | will-the-aimo-artificial-intelligen | Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2025? | null | 1,715,998,610,033 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,753,626,906 | NO | 0.088055 | 4,893.405546 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
d1pyc7lyhn | will-kim-jong-un-go-abroad-in-2024--cash | Will Kim Jong Un go abroad in 2024? | null | 1,727,732,633,455 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,761,724,022 | NO | 0.01396 | 1,060.393779 | Geopolitics | Regional Affairs |
oxcm9yvrs9 | will-there-be-a-model-with-a-69-cha | Will there be a model with a 69%+ Chatbot Arena win rate against gpt-o1 before June 1st, 2025? | null | 1,726,732,365,757 | 1,748,169,877,395 | 1,748,169,884,404 | YES | 0.955511 | 24,383.124302 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
89PIc5nAII | this-market-resolves-to-the-xor-of-8uNAqt99A0 | This market resolves to the xor of all other markets referencing "Will three different individuals create a market ..." | null | 1,739,842,297,316 | 1,741,064,340,000 | 1,741,168,391,550 | NO | 0.253699 | 5,968.997765 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
pq2ApnddSd | will-gggong-be-on-a-usaco-platinum | will gg_gong be on a usaco platinum leadeboard this season? | null | 1,739,827,142,699 | 1,743,490,740,000 | 1,744,569,494,139 | NO | 0.114924 | 1,285.130862 | Sports | Individual Sports |
0LSNQSpghz | biden-pardons-fauci | Biden pardons Fauci? | null | 1,733,194,003,471 | 1,737,405,402,979 | 1,737,405,402,979 | YES | 0.999882 | 321,633.488791 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
hUyR82c0gc | will-feiningforgm-hit-expert-in-1-c-yAcRhn5LhE | Will feining_for_gm hit expert in 1 CF contest | null | 1,747,108,921,034 | 1,748,103,200,112 | 1,748,103,200,112 | NO | 0.675545 | 4,957.176646 | Sports | Individual Sports |
QdtnNAhllI | will-this-market-get-more-traders-t | Will this market get more traders than a random integer between 0 and 99 inclusive? | null | 1,739,234,542,348 | 1,741,838,340,000 | 1,741,893,655,021 | NO | 0.375383 | 2,782.448238 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
qUUy58zSEu | will-270-of-manifold-respondents-ag | Will >= 27.0% of Manifold respondents agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth in the January 2025 poll? | null | 1,737,119,240,345 | 1,738,299,540,000 | 1,738,324,563,233 | NO | 0.026775 | 7,903.231669 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
I6t6dhPCys | bitcoin-hits-100k-1-month-into-trum | Bitcoin hits $100k, 1 month into Trump's Second Term | null | 1,733,789,161,206 | 1,738,081,087,926 | 1,738,081,087,926 | YES | 0.99 | 1,583.535992 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
tI9t2CLQyE | will-instagram-stop-sending-me-tren | Will Instagram stop sending me “Trending” notifications in a week? | null | 1,744,998,942,401 | 1,745,689,980,000 | 1,745,782,753,906 | YES | 0.221909 | 1,330.408427 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
hEcLAu9lEu | will-travis-kelce-propose-to-taylor-RC6CZREQRt | Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift during Superbowl LIX? | null | 1,738,274,269,818 | 1,739,159,306,951 | 1,739,159,306,951 | NO | 0.01 | 1,075.062587 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
3uyv5qt9n3 | will-kirill-shevchenko-be-banned-fr | Will Kirill Shevchenko be banned from FIDE for six months or more by the end of 2025? | null | 1,728,934,864,058 | 1,746,982,063,593 | 1,746,982,063,593 | YES | 0.989131 | 8,888.086974 | Sports | Individual Sports |
NldyN2cn5d | who-will-win-the-2025-wisconsin-sta | Will the more liberal/Democratic side win the 2025 Wisconsin state supreme court election? | null | 1,738,441,733,611 | 1,743,564,288,438 | 1,743,564,288,438 | YES | 0.99 | 1,645.428585 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
l096guySPz | will-gpt45-be-able-to-draw-an-accur | Will GPT-4.5 be able to draw an accurate Xbox controller? | null | 1,740,513,955,842 | 1,741,307,412,221 | 1,741,307,412,221 | NO | 0.090189 | 29,562.844839 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
9uqzmkegus | will-the-minnesota-timberwolves-win-49dv06ah5a | Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more games than the Dallas Mavericks in the 2024-2025 NBA regular season? | null | 1,727,188,100,823 | 1,744,055,690,775 | 1,744,055,690,775 | YES | 0.99 | 11,573.946522 | Sports | Professional Sports |
LI5hO69LEI | trump-admin-official-held-in-contem | Trump admin official held in contempt before end of June? | null | 1,744,831,625,748 | 1,751,327,940,000 | 1,751,337,638,058 | NO | 0.024719 | 14,132.167797 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
tN996z8UcN | will-ford-q1-2025-gross-profit-exce | Will Ford Q1, 2025 Gross Profit exceed Tesla's | null | 1,731,412,179,160 | 1,746,734,340,000 | 1,746,768,136,748 | YES | 0.991704 | 1,135.557259 | Finance | Corporate Finance |
SPcyCsg9O2 | aoc-confirmed-pregnant-by-jan-6th | AOC confirmed pregnant by Jan 6th? 👶 🇺🇸 | null | 1,731,440,859,829 | 1,736,137,582,233 | 1,736,137,582,233 | NO | 0.009998 | 361,222.467138 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
SyERNRPh0q | will-i-eat-9-hot-dogs-during-the-cu | Will I eat 9 hot dogs during the cubs game | null | 1,749,832,491,006 | 1,749,846,268,104 | 1,749,846,268,104 | YES | 0.979132 | 2,237.476178 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
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