id stringlengths 10 20 | slug stringlengths 11 53 | question stringlengths 9 120 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,715B 1,752B | closeTime int64 1,717B 1,752B | resolvedTime int64 1,736B 1,752B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 | volume float64 1k 1.38M | pred_category stringclasses 6 values | pred_subcategory stringclasses 29 values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A0yIn2ELQE | will-all-individual-yes-traders-in | Will all individual "YES" traders in this market a unique MAX PAYOUT when this market closes? | null | 1,742,847,572,238 | 1,743,461,940,000 | 1,743,474,168,019 | NO | 0.025377 | 11,963.913446 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
av7R6n2rUOMrPTjt9E5b | will-lighthaven-be-capable-of-hosti | Will Lighthaven be capable of hosting a Manifest/LessOnline style event in June 2025? | null | 1,718,001,258,281 | 1,748,599,843,783 | 1,748,599,843,783 | YES | 0.989913 | 12,735.023195 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
LPEZU6ZQtC | will-openai-reference-anthropics-mo | Will OpenAI Reference Anthropic’s Model Context Protocol (MCP) by the End of 2025? | null | 1,732,588,409,367 | 1,743,028,939,354 | 1,743,028,939,354 | YES | 0.956631 | 7,052.854101 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
z08qm5fsvu | will-nvidia-nvda-end-22-at-or-above | Will Nvidia NVDA end 2/2 at or above $222 USD per share? | null | 1,719,152,076,271 | 1,738,558,740,000 | 1,738,645,437,871 | NO | 0.009815 | 2,157.180436 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
suSNN9LpZS | will-a-tropical-or-subtropical-stor-OR98LELzzl | Will a tropical or subtropical storm be named Tony in 2024? | null | 1,731,622,787,024 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,729,717,997 | NO | 0.011613 | 24,844.640444 | Geopolitics | Regional Affairs |
5v1sik39l5 | will-the-supreme-court-strike-down-8y7p8a3krk | Will the Supreme Court strike down the Texas age verification law for online content? | null | 1,723,261,490,395 | 1,751,439,540,000 | 1,751,815,406,066 | NO | 0.01 | 10,817.87836 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
QCSdtut89y | will-both-houses-of-the-missouri-st | Will both houses of the Missouri legislature pass a stadium bill by June 31, 2025 for the Kansas City Chiefs or Royals? | null | 1,747,433,324,061 | 1,750,445,408,967 | 1,750,445,408,967 | YES | 0.950723 | 37,859.408613 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
U2spctlyEu | will-trump-tweet-about-zohran-mamda | Will Trump tweet about Zohran Mamdani in June? | null | 1,750,874,684,458 | 1,751,385,588,823 | 1,751,385,588,823 | NO | 0.004847 | 4,029.615644 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
yQynENnEON | will-jd-vance-meet-pope-leo-in-2025 | Will JD Vance meet Pope Leo before July 1st | null | 1,746,749,488,051 | 1,747,654,872,803 | 1,747,654,872,803 | YES | 0.997228 | 13,836.336436 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
8qRn8OAyPp | will-sp-500-emini-futures-go-limit | Will S&P 500 e-mini futures go limit up or down in the Sunday night session 2025-04-06? | null | 1,743,804,874,164 | 1,744,049,965,932 | 1,744,049,965,932 | NO | 0.010189 | 15,145.750376 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
szsuZ26tUQ | will-starship-flight-7-fly-before-n | Will Starship Flight 7 fly before New Glenn’s Maiden flight? | null | 1,735,931,664,969 | 1,737,028,647,304 | 1,737,028,647,304 | NO | 0.006219 | 64,579.644696 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
cUNl9Z2ScI | will-simmi-rejoin-kalshi-or-houseco | Will Simmi rejoin Kalshi or Housecord Discord Servers by Feb 1 2025? | null | 1,737,269,980,914 | 1,737,272,412,655 | 1,737,272,412,655 | YES | 0.987237 | 2,011.569989 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
uQgNOPOI6n | will-laura-loomer-get-her-bluecheck | Will Laura Loomer get her bluecheck back by Friday? | null | 1,735,552,650,579 | 1,735,975,477,897 | 1,735,975,477,897 | NO | 0.01 | 1,123.645873 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
Rnz8yAPLPQ | will-i-be-able-to-download-tiktok-o | Will I be able to download TikTok on the Google Play store and have it function normally by the end of January? | null | 1,737,266,582,837 | 1,737,314,024,133 | 1,737,314,024,133 | YES | 0.962033 | 5,554.683023 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
en29wk5qxy | will-joseph-anderson-release-his-hi-kwsbpb9idd | Will Joseph Anderson release his highly anticipated Witcher 3 review before the end of August? | null | 1,719,782,486,381 | 1,743,782,603,553 | 1,743,782,603,553 | YES | 0.947987 | 2,939.457752 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
hOzN0sO5u6 | daily-coinflip-nytAQZIN0c | Daily coinflip | null | 1,746,253,057,114 | 1,746,417,540,000 | 1,746,425,241,742 | NO | 0.51 | 7,135.674701 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
Lz5qsg09h5 | kai-and-speed-win-fortnite-today-fe | Kai and Speed win Fortnite today? (Febuary 4th Eastern Time) | null | 1,738,693,449,988 | 1,738,763,749,216 | 1,738,763,749,216 | NO | 0.01 | 1,438.898676 | Entertainment | Gaming |
QRS0Z5cPq0 | will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-ClSn9t8sgc | Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 82 and 83? | null | 1,748,839,628,117 | 1,749,444,420,000 | 1,749,535,248,482 | NO | 0.161225 | 2,099.095629 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
2ZS0858su5 | will-alien-life-be-discovered-on-eu | Will Alien Life be discovered on Europa before June 30? | null | 1,750,542,308,340 | 1,751,291,953,248 | 1,751,291,953,248 | NO | 0.012175 | 1,873.197161 | Geopolitics | Regional Affairs |
nydyCP0phA | will-i-meet-the-person-that-i-like | Will I meet the person that I like at MOP 2025? | null | 1,742,262,499,282 | 1,745,252,970,713 | 1,745,378,806,603 | YES | 0.211989 | 4,484.587862 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
QdpyOs0Q5t | will-eric-adams-have-an-approval-ra | Will Eric Adams have an approval rating under 20% by June? | null | 1,739,236,115,804 | 1,741,212,149,095 | 1,741,212,149,095 | YES | 0.99 | 1,148.911546 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
uySIyq9OlQ | will-hasan-be-banned-from-twitch-fo--cash | Will Hasan be banned from Twitch for at least 1 day by the end of 2024? | null | 1,729,874,455,439 | 1,735,671,726,376 | 1,735,761,891,416 | NO | 0.014951 | 1,276.721942 | Entertainment | Gaming |
yZ9zQu6Z6t | president-trump-will-release-jfk-fi | President Trump will release JFK files within the first week of the presidency? | null | 1,731,055,108,033 | 1,738,079,183,616 | 1,738,079,190,079 | NO | 0.01 | 2,869.916986 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
wiphjj61eq | will-the-biden-government-contract | Will the Biden government contract SpaceX to provide rural America with internet? | null | 1,722,270,473,438 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,761,101,245 | NO | 0.05 | 4,215.788348 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
g92z0ZC9Ip | will-david-lynch-be-alive-at-the-en-E8O2RqLnRn | Will David Lynch be alive at the end of 2025? | null | 1,735,776,156,670 | 1,737,052,312,594 | 1,737,052,312,594 | NO | 0.01 | 1,122.251588 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
EQ2d2LLL68 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-5yqqC5S69S | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Apr 7 than it closed on Apr 4? | null | 1,744,013,119,587 | 1,744,057,483,943 | 1,744,057,483,943 | NO | 0.01 | 58,863.757028 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
QncIcO8sng | will-grok-3-top-the-chatbot-leaderb | Will Grok 3 Top the Chatbot Leaderboard? | null | 1,738,937,105,234 | 1,739,863,737,372 | 1,739,863,737,372 | YES | 0.99 | 100,815.874163 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
zo6v3r95mq | will-china-announce-the-establishme | Will China announce the establishment of an AI Safety Insitute in 2024? | null | 1,725,646,149,450 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,736,120,160,719 | NO | 0.13962 | 3,149.359115 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
gyQlIqyAIR | bitcoin-hits-87k-before-97k | Bitcoin hits $87k before $97k? | null | 1,745,359,596,574 | 1,746,121,861,646 | 1,746,121,861,646 | NO | 0.01 | 19,321.641269 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
gzugN292RN | next-pope-has-a-diacritic-in-their | Next Pope has a diacritic in their name? | null | 1,745,753,130,568 | 1,746,975,919,145 | 1,746,975,919,145 | NO | 0.01 | 1,875.29519 | Politics | Government Structure |
8gLgq9yd8d | will-the-manifold-office-lock-be-fi | Will the Manifold office lock be fixed before 5pm? | null | 1,738,194,923,189 | 1,738,197,416,747 | 1,738,197,425,772 | YES | 0.88 | 1,805.631849 | Technology | Computing & Software |
2bhb5wooau | will-ethbtc-trade-below-002500-befo | Will ETH/BTC trade below 0.02500 before the end of 2024? | null | 1,726,633,166,332 | 1,735,714,623,965 | 1,735,714,638,948 | NO | 0.057992 | 4,410.902531 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
9LCl2QUOnE | kilmar-armando-abrego-garcia-confir | Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia confirmed alive on or before May 6? | null | 1,744,658,864,430 | 1,744,938,404,753 | 1,744,938,404,753 | YES | 0.883587 | 14,536.627535 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
1mcb0lemkm | will-section-174-be-reverted-in-202 | Will Section 174 Allow Full Expensing of SWE Salaries for R&E in 2025? | null | 1,722,011,124,904 | 1,751,729,505,190 | 1,751,729,505,190 | YES | 0.839301 | 1,287 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
CA2tht8PyN | trump-declares-martial-law-on-420 | Trump declares martial law on 4/20? | null | 1,742,757,461,849 | 1,745,193,540,000 | 1,745,280,141,416 | NO | 0.01 | 4,730.458189 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
ectafw6spf | will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-the-fc04e26738c6--cash | Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2025? | null | 1,726,715,563,426 | 1,735,752,347,744 | 1,735,845,827,111 | NO | 0.004212 | 2,998.633421 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
uQQ0UELRzL | if-there-is-an-offered-ceasefire-an | If there is an offered ceasefire and Russia doesn't accept, will the US pressure Russia in any way April 30th? | null | 1,741,859,142,965 | 1,746,053,940,000 | 1,746,101,967,762 | NO | 0.09184 | 16,881.391488 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
9SI5S2sERA | will-the-movie-wicked-hit-1-billion | Will the movie “wicked” hit 1 Billion in the box office? | null | 1,732,065,866,588 | 1,740,815,940,000 | 1,741,138,700,911 | NO | 0.01 | 1,060.133176 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
PmXBSOAkO1ZGfbMGJSEv | will-bayern-munich-win-the-202425-c | Will Bayern Munich win the 2024/25 Champions League | null | 1,714,918,280,198 | 1,745,435,409,663 | 1,745,435,409,663 | NO | 0.01 | 1,201.887458 | Sports | Professional Sports |
buismz3qc2 | will-joe-biden-ultimately-give-jimm | Will Joe Biden ultimately give Jimmy Carter's eulogy, as per Carter's request? | null | 1,721,678,625,149 | 1,737,250,745,715 | 1,737,250,745,715 | YES | 0.99 | 11,167.61838 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
dd6P0IyLAR | will-tiktok-be-banned-in-the-united-5L0tdy5RAO | Will TikTok be banned in the United States for the majority of the population by the end of 2025? | null | 1,735,995,112,349 | 1,738,215,341,269 | 1,738,215,341,269 | YES | 0.97 | 34,530.693394 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
n2UdcP0ggI | israels-current-operations-against | Israel's current operations against Iran last more than 14 days? | null | 1,749,814,397,245 | 1,750,748,796,041 | 1,750,748,796,041 | NO | 0.570857 | 3,562.07572 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
s6sQ62d5PZ | holy-shit-my-reaction-to-deepseek-r | "Holy shit!" -> my reaction to deepseek r1. Will I feel the same about any AI developments in the next 5 months? | null | 1,737,984,860,605 | 1,751,043,540,000 | 1,751,083,798,743 | NO | 0.014313 | 23,385.750554 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
ESzClcS2II | will-bitcoin-cross-90000-this-month | Will bitcoin cross 90,000 $ this month ? | null | 1,743,505,441,707 | 1,745,373,241,332 | 1,745,373,241,332 | YES | 0.980211 | 65,073.017158 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
AgEl0URcCP | will-btc-hit-95000-before-the-end-o | Will BTC hit $95,000 before the end of April 2025? | null | 1,743,496,743,529 | 1,745,769,920,919 | 1,745,769,920,919 | YES | 0.99 | 6,424.796423 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
QgLsq0OgUg | vladimir-putin-attends-brics-summit | Vladimir Putin attends BRICS Summit in Brazil July 6-7? | null | 1,750,640,006,062 | 1,751,935,920,000 | 1,752,092,650,108 | NO | 0.009969 | 1,607.776224 | Geopolitics | Regional Affairs |
jbxlw97ork | will-openai-use-a-different-name-fo | Will OpenAI use a different name for an AI model this year than the names it already used with incremental numbers? | null | 1,726,234,459,324 | 1,735,682,340,000 | 1,741,734,950,797 | YES | 0.976943 | 1,445.611496 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
s9s6R2CyR6 | scott-alexander-publishes-a-post-on | Scott Alexander publishes a post on ACX before Tuesday midnight PST? | null | 1,748,681,078,374 | 1,748,879,765,346 | 1,748,879,765,346 | YES | 0.989961 | 9,507.450941 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
P2dl6RClc2 | will-mirror-bot-atmirrorbot-post-cr | Will Mirror Bot ([at]mirrorbot) create another question before January 1, 2025? | null | 1,733,593,097,332 | 1,735,729,953,793 | 1,735,729,953,793 | NO | 0.024961 | 5,250 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
9Cz6AE2IzR | will-i-make-usaco-camp-in-2025 | Will I make USACO camp in 2025 | null | 1,737,902,537,587 | 1,745,836,369,074 | 1,745,836,369,074 | YES | 0.842861 | 4,681.875704 | Sports | Individual Sports |
LFkwX83OPKPtqVKy87SP | nfl-week-18-jan-4-2025-will-the-los | NFL Week 18 (Jan 4 2025): Will the Los Angeles Rams (home) beat the Seattle Seahawks (away)? | null | 1,715,834,719,771 | 1,736,226,000,000 | 1,737,477,042,349 | NO | 0.01 | 1,419.529622 | Sports | Professional Sports |
nUN906OORP | will-25-or-more-states-be-affected | Will 25 or more states be affected by H5N1 by the end of March 2025? | null | 1,731,560,438,396 | 1,743,479,940,000 | 1,743,480,457,155 | NO | 0.063605 | 1,566.416977 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
I2PnPLzUsA | will-trump-pardon-enrique-tarrio | Will Trump pardon Enrique Tarrio? | null | 1,733,497,049,386 | 1,739,400,986,384 | 1,739,400,986,384 | YES | 0.978598 | 4,655.399351 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
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