id stringlengths 10 20 | slug stringlengths 11 53 | question stringlengths 9 120 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,715B 1,752B | closeTime int64 1,717B 1,752B | resolvedTime int64 1,736B 1,752B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 | volume float64 1k 1.38M | pred_category stringclasses 6 values | pred_subcategory stringclasses 29 values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
lguhQOqlhS | will-i-come-first-in-my-league | Will I come first in my League | null | 1,747,032,174,873 | 1,748,889,394,997 | 1,748,889,394,997 | YES | 0.99 | 1,041.8625 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
piap8xqsiu | 3rd-assassination-attempt-on-donald | 3rd assassination attempt on Donald Trump? | null | 1,726,450,842,842 | 1,738,396,740,000 | 1,738,437,594,003 | NO | 0.01 | 504,483.962941 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
gqCRyUQ220 | la-mayor-karen-bass-ousted-by-end-o | LA Mayor Karen Bass ousted by end of Feb? | null | 1,737,063,315,673 | 1,740,815,940,000 | 1,740,876,776,800 | NO | 0.01 | 1,210.457217 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
1h8q34oqdu | trump-to-impose-60-tariff-on-china | Trump to impose 60% tariff on China in first year? | null | 1,722,688,245,710 | 1,747,043,720,530 | 1,747,043,720,530 | YES | 0.997626 | 38,670.356054 | Geopolitics | Trade & Economics |
Ehh0S5A0QP | this-question-have-29-traders-by-ju | This question have 29+ traders by June 1? | null | 1,746,429,238,443 | 1,748,290,169,417 | 1,748,290,169,417 | YES | 0.99 | 6,123.478301 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
Pt5Elln99I | will-the-starship-flight-9-ship-be | Will the Starship Flight 9 ship be caught? | null | 1,741,058,227,032 | 1,748,578,527,655 | 1,748,578,527,655 | NO | 0.01 | 2,271.52428 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
ZSQg28zuZQ | will-any-state-have-more-than-10000-zRtNRLOdsU | Will any state have more than 100,000 customers without power (red on US Power Outage Map) before the end of 2024? | null | 1,732,412,244,472 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,742,066,270 | NO | 0.0099 | 24,156.098168 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
gNL85uPdsA | will-the-buffalo-bills-win-the-supe--cash | Will the Buffalo Bills win the Super Bowl in 2025? | null | 1,730,485,321,991 | 1,737,997,980,383 | 1,737,997,980,383 | NO | 0.009881 | 1,402.793672 | Sports | Professional Sports |
2QCh0ZRL68 | bitcoin-below-90k-in-december | Bitcoin below $90K in December? | null | 1,733,114,420,195 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,718,469,000 | NO | 0.010523 | 60,425.987732 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
aoz7g7jqvy | will-noam-chomsky-live-to-see-an-is | Will Noam Chomsky live to see an Israel-Palestine ceasefire? | null | 1,718,329,896,259 | 1,742,184,389,875 | 1,742,184,389,875 | YES | 0.982718 | 52,300.369529 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
zhyys5lLzO | will-barcelona-fc-win-the-champions | Will Barcelona FC win the Champions League 2024/2025? | null | 1,742,179,629,971 | 1,746,889,846,807 | 1,746,889,846,807 | NO | 0.001738 | 4,359.689552 | Sports | Professional Sports |
i3wnkdkq0z | a-year-from-now-will-manifold-think | A year from now, will Manifold think this prediction about the future of LLM's has held up? | null | 1,719,379,429,007 | 1,735,649,940,000 | 1,751,776,522,656 | NO | 0.584539 | 1,362.67891 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
8Adp9lL8gq | in-the-next-30-days-will-this-marke | In the next 30 days, will this market with 100 liquidity earn me more mana than the twin market with 1k liquidity? | null | 1,740,433,434,372 | 1,743,029,940,000 | 1,743,032,127,652 | YES | 0.99 | 1,719.907679 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
hOUd98dgQc | sam-altman-takes-temporary-leave-of | Sam Altman takes temporary leave of absence from OpenAI before June 2025 | null | 1,741,808,710,378 | 1,748,736,000,000 | 1,748,764,765,082 | NO | 0.019686 | 2,844.31996 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
gNUURzzuSI | will-trump-ever-have-a-net-positive | Will Trump ever have a net positive approval rating? (Read Description) | null | 1,734,108,219,494 | 1,740,065,004,672 | 1,740,065,004,672 | YES | 0.978368 | 8,679.850037 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
ULp5h0Nulp | will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p | Will I receive the mandate of the people? | null | 1,749,934,205,656 | 1,750,528,020,000 | 1,751,407,177,117 | NO | 0.103653 | 8,602.739826 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
qt6dndUSQR | will-trump-impose-additional-tariff | Will Trump impose additional tariffs on China before April 10? | null | 1,738,692,010,681 | 1,741,105,625,372 | 1,741,105,625,372 | YES | 0.980984 | 8,510.898722 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
OZR0Iqphzn | will-openai-release-a-product-with-6LpgOUzROg | Will OpenAI release a product with the word "Orion" in its name before 2025? | null | 1,730,259,379,484 | 1,735,649,940,000 | 1,736,916,358,746 | NO | 0.036064 | 5,581.403125 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
0SN2qUQ5O5 | sp-500-above-6050-on-june-13 | S&P 500 above $6050 on June 13? | null | 1,749,604,773,162 | 1,749,846,916,957 | 1,749,846,916,957 | NO | 0.01 | 3,218.297257 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
ctz2EdtCPQ | bitcoin-above-97k-on-february-21 | Bitcoin above $97K on February 21? | null | 1,739,312,586,547 | 1,740,130,262,973 | 1,740,130,262,973 | YES | 0.990382 | 31,880.387425 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
5z5QuLqSn2 | will-elon-musk-stop-or-step-back-fr | Will Elon Musk stop or step back from running DOGE before the end of 2025? | null | 1,743,637,148,406 | 1,748,664,891,801 | 1,748,664,891,801 | YES | 0.969497 | 1,486.108586 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
LyRZPE9RIy | will-andrew-tate-meet-in-person-wit-N0pOOU6qUn | Will Andrew Tate meet in person with Trump within 1 week [March 6]? - credible reporting | null | 1,740,682,004,088 | 1,741,334,340,000 | 1,741,359,513,606 | NO | 0.033124 | 5,163.625418 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
uhmaba0ts8 | will-any-nfl-quarterback-exceed-509 | Will any NFL quarterback exceed 509 passing yards in a single game before the end of the 2024 season?* | null | 1,728,055,195,407 | 1,736,131,165,732 | 1,736,131,165,732 | NO | 0.01 | 1,272.936594 | Sports | Professional Sports |
OylE9tuN9n | will-an-llm-break-1400-elo-on-lmsys | Will an LLM break 1400 ELO on LMSys before February? | null | 1,734,721,071,666 | 1,738,429,425,385 | 1,738,429,425,385 | NO | 0.010411 | 150,907.711029 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
2hpgPZA62Q | will-iran-hit-israel-within-11-mont | Will Iran hit Israel within 11 months of being attacked by them? | null | 1,738,417,384,331 | 1,749,949,721,525 | 1,749,949,721,525 | YES | 0.972241 | 1,118.410507 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
RE8dn5uI5C | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-thlqqtEcOS | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Mar 10 than it closed on Mar 7? | null | 1,741,595,860,242 | 1,741,638,194,433 | 1,741,638,194,433 | NO | 0.01 | 9,438.698082 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
8dElzcnn0Z | will-trump-declare-a-national-emerg | Will Trump declare a national emergency on immigration before February 2025? | null | 1,732,041,364,644 | 1,737,437,049,787 | 1,737,437,049,787 | YES | 0.99 | 37,526.535413 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
cQINqIZU6Z | will-any-democratic-senator-vote-fo | Will any Democratic senator vote for government funding bill by Friday? | null | 1,741,976,054,146 | 1,742,183,940,000 | 1,743,392,567,906 | YES | 0.999554 | 2,352.575353 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
9gROU6cPIl | will-brooklyn-mirage-be-open-in-tim | Will Brooklyn Mirage be open in time for Sara Landry on May 1st | null | 1,745,539,150,342 | 1,746,147,754,235 | 1,746,147,754,235 | NO | 0.01 | 9,724.404768 | Entertainment | Music & Audio |
RnqCnclpU5 | will-my-net-worth-be-above-m35000-i | Will my net worth be above Ṁ35,000 in a week? | null | 1,745,716,672,590 | 1,746,320,400,000 | 1,746,320,408,761 | YES | 0.99 | 1,030.45301 | Finance | Personal Finance |
z1v2wb8lek | the-result-of-the-us-presidential-e--cash | The result of the US Presidential election will not be certified by Jan. 6, 2025. | null | 1,728,252,242,840 | 1,736,190,837,834 | 1,736,190,837,834 | NO | 0.01 | 1,925.383209 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
PZlun5P2Sc | will-anyone-with-a-net-worth-below-n6sdg6692z | Will anyone with a net worth below $1 Million Mana win Masters League in 2025? | null | 1,746,037,990,456 | 1,748,886,819,879 | 1,748,886,819,879 | YES | 0.989316 | 24,978.496878 | Sports | Professional Sports |
Lup0dt6tSI | was-the-plane-helicopter-crash-in-d | Was the plane - helicopter crash in DC over the Potomac intentional? | null | 1,738,209,085,518 | 1,740,805,140,000 | 1,740,865,516,597 | NO | 0.02099 | 4,702.786612 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
e26aakw5my | will-the-ny-times-launch-their-zors | Will the NY Times launch their Zorse game in the US in 2024? | null | 1,728,424,365,725 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,842,906,409 | NO | 0.02218 | 1,028 | Entertainment | Gaming |
tipy88geb7 | will-i-make-rmm-2025-975t54pg6d | Will I make RMM 2025? | null | 1,720,491,704,852 | 1,739,941,234,810 | 1,739,941,234,810 | YES | 0.99 | 1,029.691832 | Sports | Individual Sports |
L6Rhzd0U0d | angus-taylor-leader-of-liberal-part | Angus Taylor leader of Liberal party after Dutton? | null | 1,746,269,156,558 | 1,747,100,272,537 | 1,747,100,272,537 | NO | 0.009759 | 10,967.648419 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
2hpyCnU8LN | india-conducts-limited-military-air | India conducts limited military airstrikes inside Pakistan before May 5, 2025 | null | 1,745,593,625,544 | 1,746,489,540,000 | 1,746,489,693,878 | NO | 0.033431 | 15,178.4689 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
yjgiypto7n | will-i-score-a-top-position-in-any | Will I score a top position in any NeurIPS or Kaggle competition in the next 7 months? | null | 1,727,346,350,393 | 1,743,666,875,033 | 1,743,666,888,279 | NO | 0.186132 | 57,171.861144 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
2hOLzcR5LU | will-the-us-aisi-cease-to-exist-und | Will the US AISI cease to exist under trump? | null | 1,732,229,450,340 | 1,749,741,251,124 | 1,749,741,251,124 | YES | 0.729921 | 4,139.253548 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
pC669RSQsO | will-trump-pardon-50-january-6-riot | Will Trump pardon 50+ January 6 rioters before EOY 2025? | null | 1,731,009,533,224 | 1,746,564,368,825 | 1,746,564,368,825 | YES | 0.990024 | 9,814.777182 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
s2ZNN2PEAl | will-the-minecraft-movie-get-over-5-SltuhcQC0s | Will the Minecraft movie get over 50% on Rotten Tomatoes? | null | 1,739,939,882,463 | 1,744,422,446,188 | 1,744,422,446,188 | NO | 0.01 | 2,122.136726 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
guf14hqbvw | will-trump-pardon-any-of-the-convic | Will Trump pardon any of the convicted “J6ers” before 2028? | null | 1,722,474,083,811 | 1,737,518,127,254 | 1,737,518,127,254 | YES | 0.99 | 39,108.689257 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
7wry6bcg4k | will-the-next-long-march-6a-launch | Will the next Long March 6A launch create space debris? | null | 1,723,331,440,926 | 1,735,714,740,000 | 1,735,916,588,540 | NO | 0.106929 | 1,905 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
czPUdZLlut | daily-coinflip-tyORzqnOPN | Daily coinflip | null | 1,735,890,970,749 | 1,736,053,140,000 | 1,736,057,734,894 | YES | 0.49 | 3,762.501042 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
pENQ5I9sz2 | will-this-market-resolve-to-a-prime | Will this market's % equal a prime number at close? | null | 1,735,236,183,784 | 1,735,880,340,000 | 1,735,880,475,301 | NO | 0.33 | 16,324.991438 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
6zOcnTq3aXWMItQAhOMM | will-florida-power-light-company-fp | Will Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) announce intent to build an AP1000 at Turkey Point in 2024? | null | 1,718,009,559,841 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,963,015,436 | NO | 0.041934 | 38,528.881412 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
o6f34fpsgf | will-meta-release-their-video-tool | Will the video tool Meta Movie Gen release before 2025? | null | 1,728,061,005,191 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,858,309,063 | NO | 0.08202 | 3,415.517643 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
glI2NUEE2A | will-labor-win-the-australian-feder | Will Labor win the 2025 Australian federal election? | null | 1,733,152,152,577 | 1,746,268,517,051 | 1,746,268,517,051 | YES | 0.989689 | 187,179.333634 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
UShOhzp2Qn | congestion-pricing-is-back-in-nyc-b | Congestion Pricing is back in NYC, by mid 2026 | null | 1,740,039,460,969 | 1,751,396,786,131 | 1,751,396,786,131 | YES | 0.905422 | 2,195 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
jgytgofqlp | will-anthropic-release-a-strawberry | Will Anthropic release a “Strawberry” (OpenAI 01) equivalent model by March 12, 2025? | null | 1,726,170,002,151 | 1,741,611,571,933 | 1,741,611,571,933 | YES | 0.989585 | 2,399.431013 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
C0u6s0OqgL | will-senator-chris-van-hollen-and-k | Will Senator Chris Van Hollen and Kilmar Abrego Garcia meet face-to-face before the end of April? | null | 1,744,821,832,860 | 1,744,939,657,967 | 1,744,939,657,967 | YES | 0.995009 | 2,482.660403 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
hNPslchqRP | will-the-killer-of-brian-thompson-t-qsOcR68S6y | Will the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, have a record of being arrested in the past? | null | 1,733,473,093,072 | 1,738,810,879,278 | 1,738,810,879,278 | NO | 0.01 | 2,039.959252 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
bf1gp20p4m | will-notre-dame-stay-ranked-in-the | Will Notre Dame stay ranked in the AP Top 25 throughout the entire 2024 NCAA FBS college football season, including CFP? | null | 1,725,391,421,938 | 1,736,497,805,718 | 1,736,497,805,718 | YES | 0.99 | 1,380.886751 | Sports | Team Sports |
hplNNh02pI | will-justin-trudeau-resign-today | Will Justin Trudeau resign TODAY? | null | 1,736,168,383,759 | 1,736,179,902,532 | 1,736,179,902,532 | YES | 0.978145 | 55,037.138294 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
p8yrs1bhob | will-noam-chomsky-live-to-see-jimmy | Will Noam Chomsky live to see Jimmy Carter's funeral? | null | 1,718,986,495,376 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,874,316 | YES | 0.978114 | 1,805.793198 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
A9nU5cgg0t | will-the-beatles-win-more-2025-gram | Will the Beatles win more 2025 Grammys than Jimmy Carter? | null | 1,737,079,084,878 | 1,738,555,321,021 | 1,738,555,321,021 | NO | 0.038648 | 1,129.501047 | Entertainment | Music & Audio |
o2xs8qkll7 | will-joe-biden-resign-in-his-first--cash | Will Joe Biden resign in his first term? | null | 1,727,805,555,969 | 1,737,392,400,000 | 1,737,398,499,147 | NO | 0.003497 | 4,700.257996 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
NUAhldplty | labour-rebellion-triggers-uk-electi | Labour rebellion triggers UK election over Welfare Reform Bill? | null | 1,750,792,142,646 | 1,751,483,220,000 | 1,751,717,928,801 | NO | 0.019565 | 1,108.986548 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
phq29Qqq29 | will-anyone-get-charged-with-a-crim | Will anyone get charged with a crime for failing to certify the 2024 presidential election? | null | 1,730,654,425,620 | 1,736,236,740,000 | 1,740,075,190,344 | NO | 0.01 | 1,034.632971 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
SARqlRQy5L | bitcoin-above-107k-on-may-28 | Bitcoin above $107K on May 28? | null | 1,747,814,003,021 | 1,748,416,769,036 | 1,748,416,769,036 | YES | 0.99 | 26,541.146239 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
n2902ycSUs | will-trump-fire-the-biden-era-us-at | Will Trump fire the Biden Era U.S. Attorneys? | null | 1,739,929,817,310 | 1,743,479,940,000 | 1,745,598,630,969 | YES | 0.942782 | 4,123.214174 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
ntPhN82s8E | will-the-ufl-complete-their-2025-se | Will the UFL complete their 2025 season? | null | 1,735,951,933,688 | 1,749,959,940,000 | 1,749,984,419,782 | YES | 0.99 | 9,192.90654 | Sports | Professional Sports |
teqvi72e91 | -2024-ncaaf-will-billy-napier-still | 🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Billy Napier still be the head coach of the Florida Gators on Jan 1st, 2025? | null | 1,726,102,937,280 | 1,735,751,006,051 | 1,735,751,006,051 | YES | 0.99 | 16,868.328446 | Sports | Professional Sports |
gOhsSysEdh | will-the-rtx-5090-be-2000-usd-msrp | Will the RTX 5090 be >=2000$ USD MSRP? | null | 1,735,885,298,503 | 1,736,229,586,958 | 1,736,229,586,958 | NO | 0.058983 | 1,110.575369 | Technology | Mobile & Consumer Electronics |
MjU42RU2HcJgDNsA0v81 | will-atletico-de-madrid-win-the-202-fb5664d34fcd | Will Atlético de Madrid win the 2024/25 La Liga? | null | 1,714,913,180,441 | 1,747,108,740,000 | 1,747,438,874,608 | NO | 0.01 | 2,563.187997 | Sports | Professional Sports |
sgAg6Lt8gh | sanji-dies-in-a-fight | Sanji dies in a fight? | null | 1,751,943,868,335 | 1,752,029,716,082 | 1,752,029,716,082 | NO | 0.00232 | 6,868.375142 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
25pLzIdg25 | germany-withdraws-gold-from-us-in-a | Germany Withdraws Gold from US in April? | null | 1,743,837,476,061 | 1,746,082,740,000 | 1,746,083,743,394 | NO | 0.033426 | 6,081.270037 | Geopolitics | Trade & Economics |
dpfvotlic9 | will-april-fools-definitive-confirm | Will "[April Fools'] Definitive confirmation of sha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,726,873,305,719 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,396,081 | NO | 0.068029 | 1,000 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
INNdg6nsh2 | will-semaglutide-be-taken-off-fdas | Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025? | null | 1,737,584,909,252 | 1,741,054,967,442 | 1,741,054,967,442 | YES | 0.969728 | 134,115.875583 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
ys2cPu99AE | will-the-dow-jones-industrial-avera-ldpN9AtS8S | Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall more than 2000 points at any point on February 3? | null | 1,738,512,174,394 | 1,738,645,140,000 | 1,738,670,072,603 | NO | 0.010492 | 1,322.883013 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
UOOtzz8s6U | will-the-iphone-se-debut-next-week | Will the iPhone SE debut next week? | null | 1,738,920,634,971 | 1,739,733,878,887 | 1,739,733,878,887 | NO | 0.010109 | 22,002.640822 | Technology | Mobile & Consumer Electronics |
Z9LOOL9In8 | will-bitcoin-btc-reach-222222-by-22 | Will Bitcoin BTC reach $222,222 by 2/2/25? (February 2, 2025) | null | 1,731,703,554,054 | 1,738,600,800,000 | 1,738,725,797,655 | NO | 0.01 | 21,320.150509 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
Au99d5tyLU | openai-releases-o3-by-april-31-2025 | OpenAI releases o3 by April 31, 2025 | null | 1,744,297,219,829 | 1,744,825,200,061 | 1,744,825,200,061 | YES | 0.99 | 2,456.152959 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
yt2bmirad7 | will-trump-sell-50-or-more-of-his-t | Will Trump sell 50% or more of his Truth Social $DJT shares by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,418,577,440 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,780,841,401 | NO | 0.037191 | 5,740.764428 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
8zR5uc8Pzp | will-transgender-us-passports-with-qENPSOU66h | Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be unrenewable in 2025? | null | 1,732,464,900,089 | 1,738,540,439,442 | 1,738,540,439,442 | YES | 0.89 | 14,151.232815 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
vej0ya1fl7 | will-the-next-canadian-federal-elec | Will the next Canadian federal election be before August 1st 2025? | null | 1,726,072,800,655 | 1,746,488,344,550 | 1,746,488,344,550 | YES | 0.99 | 9,027.559468 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
8ZnppLQEOA | polymarket-will-barron-launch-a-coi | [Polymarket] Will Barron launch a coin before May? | null | 1,741,710,272,400 | 1,745,823,540,000 | 1,746,107,368,121 | NO | 0.01001 | 12,031.745697 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
0tcRP86hNy | will-soaffine-be-active-on-manifold | Will @Soaffine be active on manifold again, before April? | null | 1,737,689,292,367 | 1,743,448,698,824 | 1,743,448,698,824 | NO | 0.019648 | 1,711.277029 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
ndd6f1mex2 | will-curtis-yarvin-return-to-a-publ | Will Curtis Yarvin return to a public role with the Urbit project in the remainder of 2024? | null | 1,723,768,398,909 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,743,456,286,399 | YES | 0.778614 | 1,515.462714 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
l5p9lEZARL | will-bitcoin-dip-below-90000-by-the | Will bitcoin dip below $90,000 by the end of February 2025? | null | 1,739,324,906,451 | 1,740,483,575,911 | 1,740,483,575,911 | YES | 0.99 | 4,384.469165 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
pg9czOC5Lc | next-pope-is-liberal | Next Pope is liberal? | null | 1,745,753,193,427 | 1,746,975,927,399 | 1,746,975,927,399 | NO | 0.327518 | 1,711.222357 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
pttQ5yny6I | openai-releases-o3pro-this-week | OpenAI releases o3-pro this week? | null | 1,749,540,084,753 | 1,749,591,195,533 | 1,749,591,195,533 | YES | 0.99 | 1,805.440236 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
lU5cnIIhuE | will-bitcoin-hit-95k-in-june-polyma | Will Bitcoin hit 95k in June? [Polymarket] | null | 1,748,800,298,083 | 1,751,378,159,580 | 1,751,378,159,580 | NO | 0.01 | 56,327.7446 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
cEzUEc0USP | will-i-recover-my-lost-clear-waterb | Will I recover my lost waterbottle by end of Manifest? | null | 1,749,230,594,101 | 1,749,447,520,736 | 1,749,447,520,736 | NO | 0.157809 | 1,758.596724 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
7ykgwog091 | will-gixxerbrah-be-arrested-again-i | Will Gixxerbrah be arrested again in 2024? | null | 1,721,317,781,463 | 1,735,660,740,000 | 1,736,526,795,220 | NO | 0.193269 | 1,055 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
nuox4c2v42 | will-yann-lecun-remain-the-head-of | Will Yann LeCun remain the head of AI at Meta (Facebook) on July 1st 2025? | null | 1,721,665,347,948 | 1,751,405,002,470 | 1,751,405,002,470 | YES | 0.985194 | 62,369.798451 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
56U866ysnz | real-id-travel-requirement-postpone | REAL ID travel requirement postponed past May 7, 2025? | null | 1,744,750,933,177 | 1,746,662,340,000 | 1,746,664,535,921 | NO | 0.053713 | 69,583.368064 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
awt43c1tav | will-the-vienna-hypersphere-publish | Will the Vienna Hypersphere publish >1 post on Substack or LW before 2025? | null | 1,727,648,283,432 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,742,772,940 | NO | 0.2487 | 1,396.447097 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
lhptQ9psOg | will-contrapoints-release-a-new-mai-pZuNEcA0uc | Will Contrapoints release a new mainline video essay by the end of March 2025? | null | 1,735,775,339,376 | 1,742,906,690,567 | 1,742,906,690,567 | YES | 0.994627 | 15,270.756566 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
9LdtcpOIZU | will-i-get-injured-riding-my-electr-n9zLhl6pSd | Will I get injured riding my electric unicycle by the end of 2025? | null | 1,742,611,671,305 | 1,747,354,305,151 | 1,747,354,305,151 | YES | 0.197282 | 2,259 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
ovilyci3c4 | will-keir-starmer-call-any-view-of | Will Keir Starmer call any view of UK anti-immigration protestors “legitimate” or “genuine” by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,136,311,483 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,794,107,520 | NO | 0.054507 | 33,530.033035 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
ynVXMvvaemmypx9EeFUE | will-trump-face-any-significant-rep | Will Trump Face Significant Repercussions (Incarceration or Political Restrictions) from Hush Money Verdict? | null | 1,717,106,554,501 | 1,736,640,309,597 | 1,736,640,309,597 | NO | 0.01 | 15,069.189682 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
NNLuUqq26u | will-the-uk-government-remove-hts-f | Will the UK government remove HTS from its list of terrorist organizations by June 1st 2025? | null | 1,733,761,918,804 | 1,748,818,800,000 | 1,749,299,058,769 | NO | 0.011013 | 9,726.477395 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
dlgctQ6zts | will-an-egg-be-worth-more-than-a-do | Will an egg be worth more than a dollar before the end of March? | null | 1,739,401,799,264 | 1,743,479,940,000 | 1,744,435,577,983 | NO | 0.016026 | 12,632.748012 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
PcqzQ552hU | will-this-question-get-50-traders | Will this question get 50 traders? | null | 1,737,657,888,687 | 1,738,299,540,000 | 1,738,323,626,788 | YES | 0.996277 | 3,154.666312 | Sports | Professional Sports |
RI8OCOdC8u | will-there-be-a-stock-market-crash | Will there be a stock market crash attributed to a Trump tariff in 2025? | null | 1,738,499,033,135 | 1,745,416,138,168 | 1,745,416,138,168 | YES | 0.989982 | 2,999.747516 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
CNh6cLRpAZ | will-the-average-bidding-price-for | Will the average bidding price for this question be more than 120 mana? | null | 1,742,177,249,624 | 1,747,371,540,000 | 1,747,610,761,475 | YES | 0.995411 | 15,014.086715 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
vsm0rmozrp | did-generative-ai-have-a-causal-eff | Did generative AI have a causal effect on the major outage generated by Crowdstrike? | null | 1,721,421,318,471 | 1,735,804,740,000 | 1,736,179,509,493 | NO | 0.038208 | 5,216.14193 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
vc92lm2gif | polymarket-to-emergency-resolve-a-m | Polymarket to Emergency Resolve a market to overturn a UMA decision in 2024? | null | 1,724,634,548,018 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,750,483,400 | NO | 0.026264 | 5,516 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
qgQUdRcl0c | pope-francis-say-urbi-et-orbi-in-pu | Pope Francis say 'Urbi et Orbi' in public this Easter? | null | 1,744,884,613,368 | 1,745,150,488,484 | 1,745,150,488,484 | YES | 0.99 | 1,198.729468 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
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