id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2
classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2
values | commentType stringclasses 1
value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2
values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8mifyn8gzgb | false | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Original plan was \"about a week\". The intent was to ask whether the stay got cut short; the current planned extension would result in a Yes resolutio... | Evan | 4UYGnuh0qSSwAwzaAVO8 | public | contract | 1,718,125,195,655 | which-milestones-will-starliner-ach | EvanDaniel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c | Which milestones will Starliner achieve? | null | null | 174.574312 | YES | h078xj0r73 |
orken9kk5q8 | false | LetvCVTaqbeFFPc2UzfSMdkhxMz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "tswiCqsC8QgriKBxzSXl",
"label": "Mira",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Barrett Stough | hqTQw1GX53g8obtHvgxO | public | contract | 1,718,125,254,889 | how-many-traders-will-this-market-g | BarrettStough | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIjF0nhmZEFCyr-0wuntBo1hMAn8w6kij_zYt1uB0Zh3KsTTZ2A=s96-c | How many traders will this market get? | T6WR3s4Qt49ds6W4GFex | null | 442.905803 | YES | f9d8f7d9dac6 |
fzbqsm05tq | false | X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "squksptqysl",
"label": "KongoLandwalker",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},... | Daniel Tello | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,125,297,266 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | deagol | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | squksptqysl | 1 | 1.169556 | YES | null |
9za8lliwdac | false | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ear4ztvoxk7",
"label": "Sss19971997",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Sss | FcwCNUb1bnJMst3Z14mM | public | contract | 1,718,125,344,621 | will-china-make-a-llm-as-good-as-gp | Sss19971997 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | China will make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025 | ear4ztvoxk7 | 0.892526 | 599.097842 | YES | null |
ikermwutm1s | false | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33",
"label": "NathanpmYoung",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "ment... | Sss | FcwCNUb1bnJMst3Z14mM | public | contract | 1,718,125,374,673 | will-china-make-a-llm-as-good-as-gp | Sss19971997 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | China will make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025 | ear4ztvoxk7 | 0.892526 | 599.097842 | YES | null |
ahaxxm1tkjs | false | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In the Gemini 1.5 report, then have mentioned multiple times that \"compared to previous version (gemini 1), 1.5 used MoE, which boosts efficiency etc.... | Sss | OyGbOwiOXEG0bQAkF5u5 | public | contract | 1,718,125,453,787 | is-google-gemini-a-mixture-of-exper | Sss19971997 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | Is Google Gemini 1.0 Ultra a Mixture of Experts? | null | 0.165703 | 621.484789 | NO | null |
iv54gvm3k8 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "ok pinged some mods in a discord chat lets see wht they say. i think only jackson chimed in here. maybe theyll post their thoughts on manifold too",
... | chris (strutheo) | u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv | public | contract | 1,718,125,483,959 | will-the-estimated-training-cost-of | strutheo | Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M? | null | 0.951016 | 1,143.670114 | YES | null | |
5lfxizah37c | false | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "701wn8w8omq",
"label": "ukaszBartoszcze",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},... | Quantum Gambler | 8oYe5cYMSLlHz9qtMXYL | public | contract | 1,718,125,757,957 | will-harry-kane-score-more-goals-at | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | Will Harry Kane score more goals at EURO 2024 than the entire teams of Poland and Albania combined? | l6rap4kpv2d | 0.363927 | 353.685242 | YES | null |
qmwhijjo7zc | false | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Scoring and the celebrations for the friendly, crying, apologies and hugs for the game when it is mattering!!!",
"type": "text"
}
... | Quantum Gambler | 52pbSvtKV0AOCTrKWWUR | public | contract | 1,718,125,941,920 | who-will-be-the-polands-team-top-go | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | Who will be the Poland’s team top goalscorer during EURO 2024? | 1jyys7xxn7c | null | 67.888942 | NO | 73a98a518a8a |
1gisuzevgso | false | X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "orken9kk5q8",
"label": "BarrettStough",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Daniel Tello | hqTQw1GX53g8obtHvgxO | public | contract | 1,718,126,005,941 | how-many-traders-will-this-market-g | deagol | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c | How many traders will this market get? | T6WR3s4Qt49ds6W4GFex | null | 1,000.209637 | NO | 8cf62b48c791 |
ygrgq3fkl7 | false | M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "5lfxizah37c",
"label": "Mirek",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | Łukasz Bartoszcze | 8oYe5cYMSLlHz9qtMXYL | public | contract | 1,718,126,009,058 | will-harry-kane-score-more-goals-at | ukaszBartoszcze | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c | Will Harry Kane score more goals at EURO 2024 than the entire teams of Poland and Albania combined? | l6rap4kpv2d | 0.363927 | 132.052662 | YES | null |
0afp054c1l3e | false | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "zq5qfyatsa",
"label": "Bart5f6d",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | jskf | kAd6kq6mloFDwCEZKxlC | public | contract | 1,718,126,120,545 | following-the-2023-dutch-general-el-a3de90781d96 | jskf | Following the 2023 Dutch General Elections, will the new governing coalition consist of at least 3 parties? | zq5qfyatsa | 0.983258 | 16.138796 | YES | null | |
p6vfnudwby | false | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": "",
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"lan... | Quantum Gambler | wmykQEtospWX6cG2UjcE | public | contract | 1,718,126,196,773 | will-polands-team-concede-more-than | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | Will Poland’s team concede more than six goals during EURO 2024 group phase? | null | 0.41 | 45.96596 | YES | null |
znsrsg50d5e | false | IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "iv54gvm3k8",
"label": "strutheo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Bionic | u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv | public | contract | 1,718,126,295,621 | will-the-estimated-training-cost-of | BionicD0LPH1N | Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M? | iv54gvm3k8 | 0.951016 | 0 | NO | null | |
x8jjdf1mg4 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "znsrsg50d5e",
"label": "BionicD0LPH1N",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | chris (strutheo) | u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv | public | contract | 1,718,126,329,800 | will-the-estimated-training-cost-of | strutheo | Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M? | iv54gvm3k8 | 0.951016 | 1,143.670114 | YES | null | |
3fpod4sjtal | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Gonna put a little bit on 2 and 3 because there are some hypotheses here that, if they resolve against expectations, also require another one to resolv... | Plasma Ballin' | lSWcKbKsL2riBYdHAdOI | public | contract | 1,718,126,347,470 | mathematical-surprises-how-many-of | PlasmaBallin | Mathematical surprises: How many of the 28 linked questions will resolve in an unexpected direction? | null | null | 35.186875 | YES | c090bda5fef6 | |
sz42jo90pkd | false | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ygrgq3fkl7",
"label": "ukaszBartoszcze",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Quantum Gambler | 8oYe5cYMSLlHz9qtMXYL | public | contract | 1,718,126,383,306 | will-harry-kane-score-more-goals-at | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | Will Harry Kane score more goals at EURO 2024 than the entire teams of Poland and Albania combined? | l6rap4kpv2d | 0.363927 | 419.323524 | YES | null |
lro6dn8un9a | false | D5g8arLKvGUoIN9B25QJIJA31HL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "i3v9rvq58il",
"label": "themightysalmon",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},... | Jacek | 9JyfUhmYJWk6pbLW4xY3 | public | contract | 1,718,126,415,873 | will-trump-choose-vivek-as-his-vice | Jacek | Will Trump choose Vivek as his vice presidential running mate OR Will I roll a 1 on a 10-sided die? [JOINT PROBABILITY] | rtms4tedenj | null | null | null | null | |
88md3r0wpvk | false | 0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"lang... | Gordan Knott | Ft3YtoUBKrj3wjcoKEFY | public | contract | 1,718,126,451,341 | will-spacex-catch-a-booster-with-me | GordanKnott | Will SpaceX catch a Booster with Mechazilla in 2024? | null | 0.680756 | 143.001193 | NO | null | |
dtwr3jgi61 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "rlqt55ega1q",
"label": "StarkLN",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | chris (strutheo) | 1y0FHXHuFnJAuSndRGKJ | public | contract | 1,718,126,709,129 | coolfold-financial-advice-suggest-i | strutheo | 💰CoolFold Financial Advice: Suggest Investments for Me & Predict their ROI in 6 months, invest & win real money! | rlqt55ega1q | null | null | null | null | |
f9h8u6x648 | false | 7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "All in on no. If I'm wrong, I can just buy back the losses with the money I would have spent on the game!",
"type": "text"
}
],... | Interrobang | xDvAXJJuZFgPfK7SKgq0 | public | contract | 1,718,126,864,653 | will-kurzgesagts-new-space-birds-ga | Interrobang | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaoSVG-ubMKwZ3V3nCKNL-deCRpMdJpvx6fA4y_csw6mvskHA=s96-c | Will Kurzgesagt's new Space Birds game be free to play? | null | 0.272515 | 2,864.032447 | NO | null |
r4yxyg9umw | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "v7t3tamf0tc",
"label": "meh",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Predictor 🔥 | Q9AYUdH1Reuj9FpbEwvr | public | contract | 1,718,126,941,892 | will-gregg-berhalter-be-coach-of-th | Predictor | Will Gregg Berhalter be coach of the US Men's National Soccer Team for the 2026 World Cup? | v7t3tamf0tc | 0.566481 | 1,191.919571 | NO | null | |
s0g7jwr61va | false | XeQf3ygmrGM1MxdsE3JSlmq8vL42 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "s9m1pj5y2fl",
"label": "HenriThunberg",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Jacy | dXmeXrSl12FkgUhaZjco | public | contract | 1,718,127,225,498 | -what-will-be-true-about-macos-15 | Jacy | 💻 What will be true about MacOS 15? | 18sl5ofi8qe | null | 323.753646 | NO | dd6278cf7294 | |
rke5ucfzb2e | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"lang... | Predictor 🔥 | Q9AYUdH1Reuj9FpbEwvr | public | contract | 1,718,127,266,899 | will-gregg-berhalter-be-coach-of-th | Predictor | Will Gregg Berhalter be coach of the US Men's National Soccer Team for the 2026 World Cup? | v7t3tamf0tc | 0.566481 | 1,191.919571 | NO | null | |
amx6k924oq5 | false | R1FYWUk3bveksTL1k9kJCmuJjey1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xgd7fed1emd",
"label": "Cerflerg",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | zaperrer | a5Ialv2XlHTcMZWxUgP4 | public | contract | 1,718,127,329,389 | will-trump-be-found-guilty-will-tru | zaperrer | Will Trump be found guilty? / Will Trump’s favorability increase? | km8ycv4lb2 | null | null | null | null | |
0pwfmcoa2j | false | TUvm26ov7fefFj7KYBSHuE49s2M2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Currently sitting at $205+ in live trading. Will resolve if it closes about $200",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph... | John Carpenter | VBurppkKtEMwvn4PlsAo | public | contract | 1,718,127,479,706 | when-will-the-stock-price-of-aapl-c | JohnCarpenter | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbnMbgGdE9ZUUqzpL2THIy9BWVUALl8URxyyYemF9Ib6JghmvmNA=s96-c | When will AAPL stock close above $200 for the first time? | null | null | 174.634804 | NO | 300aeae17127 |
8sabd7sjb62 | false | R1FYWUk3bveksTL1k9kJCmuJjey1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xgd7fed1emd",
"label": "Cerflerg",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | zaperrer | a5Ialv2XlHTcMZWxUgP4 | public | contract | 1,718,127,574,783 | will-trump-be-found-guilty-will-tru | zaperrer | Will Trump be found guilty? / Will Trump’s favorability increase? | km8ycv4lb2 | null | null | null | null | |
xsshjlzeck | false | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | The Official | 30yqwkvKV1aLY1kE5FSD | public | contract | 1,718,127,662,987 | on-which-dates-will-the-dali-the-sh | 10thOfficial | On which dates will the Dali (the ship that hit the Key Bridge) still be in the Patapsco River? 🚢🌉🌊 | zq9h04vqq1 | null | 1,490.239548 | YES | d1a6970604dd | |
d5w5ptr6exi | false | 9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4hf6q6i8fvv",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | Jan | 9WXgDpKC7UyF4mh34NlP | public | contract | 1,718,127,870,620 | if-human-brain-emulations-are-creat | Jan53274 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c | If human brain emulations are created, will they outnumber the biological human population within a decade? | tm3yx9r5p8 | null | null | null | null |
26fmzn86hjx | false | R1FYWUk3bveksTL1k9kJCmuJjey1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xgd7fed1emd",
"label": "Cerflerg",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | zaperrer | a5Ialv2XlHTcMZWxUgP4 | public | contract | 1,718,127,874,630 | will-trump-be-found-guilty-will-tru | zaperrer | Will Trump be found guilty? / Will Trump’s favorability increase? | km8ycv4lb2 | null | null | null | null | |
4u6j39z3nv | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "fzbqsm05tq",
"label": "deagol",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | Kongo Landwalker | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,128,134,300 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | KongoLandwalker | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | squksptqysl | 1 | 1,848.371073 | NO | null | |
lwf740zdf4 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Hit 44k",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | G8V3CsOSbiJRXMnLTfEu | public | contract | 1,718,128,155,130 | will-strutheo-slay-all-top-20-creat | strutheo | Will @strutheo slay all top 20 creators or reach 69,420 traders first ? | null | null | null | null | null | |
kd4r0002uom | false | xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lro6dn8un9a",
"label": "Jacek",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | themightysalmon | 9JyfUhmYJWk6pbLW4xY3 | public | contract | 1,718,128,267,927 | will-trump-choose-vivek-as-his-vice | themightysalmon | Will Trump choose Vivek as his vice presidential running mate OR Will I roll a 1 on a 10-sided die? [JOINT PROBABILITY] | rtms4tedenj | null | null | null | null | |
q4tgbz1pcds | false | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Does it need to explode ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
... | Mqrius | yBMtgd0QneONa5NhqJmU | public | contract | 1,718,128,274,255 | will-the-booster-explode-and-damage | Mqrius | Will the booster explode and damage Mechazilla during the first catch attempt? | null | 0.5 | 658.426488 | NO | null | |
0s5xq8x3479 | false | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "q4tgbz1pcds",
"label": "Mqrius",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Mqrius | yBMtgd0QneONa5NhqJmU | public | contract | 1,718,128,301,055 | will-the-booster-explode-and-damage | Mqrius | Will the booster explode and damage Mechazilla during the first catch attempt? | q4tgbz1pcds | 0.5 | 658.426488 | NO | null | |
x4cj8libz5 | false | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I believe (my opinion), that if there is not concrete data source (ie. Statista), that can be followed than that severely limits the ability to get exa... | SirCryptomind | u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv | public | contract | 1,718,128,327,645 | will-the-estimated-training-cost-of | SirCryptomind | Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M? | iv54gvm3k8 | null | null | null | null | |
drfw72ku2bp | false | Gqt8IuiFQjQ4vVwlPTlpLToVKwZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "9hj3u0fjqxl",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | girllich | WjmliBgkefuLkBvTNDX5 | public | contract | 1,718,128,541,425 | what-cities-in-the-us-will-tetra-vi | girllich | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYaT-rq39rRx70X_cto4tD298UMTdpIqu0RMoJfFg=s96-c | What cities in the US will Tetra visit in 2024? | s27kchdz8q | null | 20.42347 | NO | 00497eb5ec09 |
ntgatmp549 | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Let's see what the Supreme Court has to say about this.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "d... | Predictor 🔥 | 36VMolVlYeiIFT4gah2k | public | contract | 1,718,128,563,128 | will-the-nfl-lose-the-sunday-ticket | Predictor | Will the NFL lose the "Sunday Ticket" trial? | null | 0.420307 | 184.522373 | NO | null | |
0wv0intmwb9m | false | OispOHcuZ6Mtln1rU1R6Dl0JblV2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "46.6 on 6/11",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | alex | itwkoNdUJeo3jo0dCFET | public | contract | 1,718,128,569,108 | the-538-election-model-will-give-tr | gocougs | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKgcEdee0YHQfqznypu7NY6p_lmXBvNqOhfJXKnQ92apw=s96-c | The 538 Election Model will give Trump what % chance of winning the election? [High Precision] | null | null | 453.267953 | YES | a444022dafde |
uo1fwg9zpfd | false | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I haven't recently looked in on what sort of torrents exist there, or how... | jackson polack | 5M2I0YYBYCstkwDI3yDK | public | contract | 1,718,128,580,660 | will-openai-pay-scientific-publishe | jacksonpolack | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025? | null | 0.658417 | 649.701128 | NO | null |
apnm6lc4qz | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "x4cj8libz5",
"label": "SirCryptomind",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}
... | Bayesian | u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv | public | contract | 1,718,128,631,643 | will-the-estimated-training-cost-of | Bayesian | Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M? | iv54gvm3k8 | null | null | null | null | |
4ds4cdkh28 | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "67vbdgryaq5",
"label": "strutheo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Predictor 🔥 | 1y0FHXHuFnJAuSndRGKJ | public | contract | 1,718,128,638,619 | coolfold-financial-advice-suggest-i | Predictor | 💰CoolFold Financial Advice: Suggest Investments for Me & Predict their ROI in 6 months, invest & win real money! | 67vbdgryaq5 | null | null | null | null | |
dx5swmvvc3c | false | RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I don't know anything about this guy, but if he was the VP pick the campaign signs would say Trump / Donalds 2024 so I'm betting him down",
"... | Arky | vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN | public | contract | 1,718,128,871,314 | who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445 | Arky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c | Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP) | null | null | 152.485484 | YES | 93a1f2f817df |
1yo7myue1fa | false | brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4u6j39z3nv",
"label": "KongoLandwalker",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Predict | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,128,891,263 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | Predict | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | squksptqysl | 1 | -0 | NO | null | |
eml2khesgvw | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Joshua | itwkoNdUJeo3jo0dCFET | public | contract | 1,718,129,055,292 | the-538-election-model-will-give-tr | Joshua | The 538 Election Model will give Trump what % chance of winning the election? [High Precision] | null | null | 1,163.967156 | YES | 9e33e5a86341 | |
izo8857vqs | false | HUVezqMCWVVp5NHQpy8maAYtKqI3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Highly plausible in a war full of mutual hatred.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Allahu Akbar | 7Z5OFIfoZ0mYyks4kQfH | public | contract | 1,718,129,114,398 | did-israel-execute-unarmed-gaza-civ | AlexCao | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5MRdji8Fe2SuO4FMlSlHMI_X2LSYi80Hk6u9nB=s96-c | Did Israel execute unarmed Gazans on December 19th for no good reason? | null | 0.453782 | 102.15654 | YES | null |
2uauequ5ctm | false | vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Marnix | rgImya3XrrjJwdlgkogL | public | contract | 1,718,129,136,461 | will-538-get-a-new-model-for-2024 | Marnix | Will 538 get a new model for 2024? | null | 0.923439 | 438.246879 | YES | null | |
h4248tst867 | false | 8ntNjtw3m7gJKwpf2nDGEvnpU6y1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Since this is a dependent market that can only resolve to one option, how would it resolve if you consulted at another startup? That is, matching both ... | Schneefackel | i32ddLzkBWaCpO7Pv4d1 | public | contract | 1,718,129,287,955 | in-what-career-path-will-i-be-in-ju | Schneefackel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaIkLPQddNdum_OH2iW5S1nKX7q6NQ8X1v6csyu=s96-c | In what career path will @RanaG be in June 2025? | null | null | 173.458278 | YES | 2us4jieihw |
ti0v5xdne6 | false | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "apnm6lc4qz",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | SirCryptomind | u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv | public | contract | 1,718,129,298,272 | will-the-estimated-training-cost-of | SirCryptomind | Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M? | iv54gvm3k8 | null | null | null | null | |
ae03z83f30e | false | X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4u6j39z3nv",
"label": "KongoLandwalker",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Daniel Tello | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,129,402,787 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | deagol | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | squksptqysl | 1 | 1.169556 | YES | null |
x0w3cxdiv | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "1yo7myue1fa",
"label": "Predict",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Kongo Landwalker | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,129,418,455 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | KongoLandwalker | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | squksptqysl | 1 | 1,848.371073 | NO | null | |
0sygp9f2esgj | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ae03z83f30e",
"label": "deagol",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Kongo Landwalker | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,129,530,879 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | KongoLandwalker | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | squksptqysl | 1 | 1,848.371073 | NO | null | |
zkn881lozkf | false | VTbvGNq8spM2EDZCug7Ox2kvEyu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Please see also:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"co... | Tossup | pO1w7LXGbxiVBchKyb6A | public | contract | 1,718,129,620,128 | when-will-the-first-agi-company-get | Tossup | When will the first AGI company get nationalized? | null | null | 265.439442 | NO | ybzxd044ig | |
xejgskjl1ve | false | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2",
"label": "mattyb",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | SirCryptomind | R9mFNFQmaZF15GI0yFjl | public | contract | 1,718,129,860,159 | felon-watch-2k24-which-public-figur | SirCryptomind | Felon Watch 2k24 👮🏻⚖️👩⚖️: Which public figures will be charged with a felony before 2025? | null | null | 581.414091 | YES | bb51dae9ac74 | |
00iq4irq3i4x | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ae03z83f30e",
"label": "deagol",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Kongo Landwalker | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,130,028,928 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | KongoLandwalker | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | squksptqysl | 1 | 1,848.371073 | NO | null | |
wqq27sr0iy | false | g26yWuQJtWfjh12tJE4RArEzLi33 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "dvctf9b709s",
"label": "JonathanMannhart",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | Logan Turner | t7Ewym4a84h1HwAnaWmL | public | contract | 1,718,130,034,690 | will-apple-announce-new-hardware-at | LoganTurner | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxb6lOFoLQos2HX7enoLuYEiJqPW11HpUxAX9AsB8w=s96-c | Will Apple announce new hardware at WWDC 2024? | dewh8tbn8zl | 0 | 5,967.638596 | YES | null |
i7dle8q5sr8 | false | zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "h4248tst867",
"label": "Schneefackel",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Rana G | i32ddLzkBWaCpO7Pv4d1 | public | contract | 1,718,130,062,152 | in-what-career-path-will-i-be-in-ju | RanaG | In what career path will @RanaG be in June 2025? | h4248tst867 | null | 0 | NO | 1qel7gonef | |
fx0jcsfs07h | false | X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "0sygp9f2esgj",
"label": "KongoLandwalker",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | Daniel Tello | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,130,122,481 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | deagol | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | squksptqysl | 1 | 1.169556 | YES | null |
ejre0kxstg | false | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "auswhliun5p",
"label": "Schwabilismus",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Martin Modrák | H9YiamjMIXEmeBkG02uw | public | contract | 1,718,130,170,965 | will-givewell-recommend-a-charity-d | MartinModrak | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c | Will Givewell recommend a charity distributing the New Malaria Vaccine "R21 Matrix M"? | ye79e460qoq | 0.348502 | 15.36688 | NO | null |
z7gnheaar5n | false | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Martin Randall | WrJNShaZhXrx1Emyh7VP | public | contract | 1,718,130,180,259 | will-trump-live-to-see-joe-biden-hu | MartinRandall | Will Trump live to see Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, or Hillary Clinton found guilty of a crime? | null | 1 | 113.455758 | NO | null | |
4qfxxh6y6n | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "fx0jcsfs07h",
"label": "deagol",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Kongo Landwalker | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,130,265,466 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | KongoLandwalker | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | squksptqysl | 1 | 1,848.371073 | NO | null | |
hvgboisc3kt | false | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "8MEqBKc0ETbArhlgup8nsY5iajs1",
"label": "mb",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Martin Modrák | KWZC3r9XnsqQkM7O8Jkj | public | contract | 1,718,130,322,232 | will-joe-biden-get-under-88-of-the | MartinModrak | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c | Will Joe Biden get under 88% of the vote in any of these states in the 2024 Democratic Primary? | null | null | 381.69656 | YES | 4f33c0be6f5b |
d8xrf9v1qj | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "1yo7myue1fa",
"label": "Predict",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Kongo Landwalker | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,130,403,326 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | KongoLandwalker | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | squksptqysl | 1 | 1,848.371073 | NO | null | |
em0iorubmx | false | X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "00iq4irq3i4x",
"label": "KongoLandwalker",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | Daniel Tello | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,130,520,652 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | deagol | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | squksptqysl | 1 | 1.169556 | YES | null |
to28427dl5s | false | 8hXOLnmHuSPcXnKAycyXu3Zlc852 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The incredible marketing budget they threw at the EU elections proves they’re not limited by funding.",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | Homesick Alien | T6rN8CL5Zrf7b7HvpD3M | public | contract | 1,718,130,597,297 | will-volt-be-elected-into-the-next | HomesickAlien | Will Volt be elected into the next Bundestag (2025)? | null | 0.128618 | 114.280078 | NO | null | |
z7ev3muvi8d | false | TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "well, if you test for 100 different domains of cognition/traits/personality/etc in a trials within standard frequentist stat. framework (with null hyp... | ed | ZUkkoJpSeaBjq8moEXd3 | public | contract | 1,718,130,615,525 | will-cerebrolysin-be-shown-to-impro | 3d | Will cerebrolysin be shown to improve memory, intelligence, or some other trait? | null | null | null | null | null | |
6ef6x7golfd | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "em0iorubmx",
"label": "deagol",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | Kongo Landwalker | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,130,948,265 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | KongoLandwalker | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | squksptqysl | 1 | 1,848.371073 | NO | null | |
x7ly5yqq08 | false | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Feel like the debate is the main thing that matters here",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "... | Savior of Plant | aQf5flyFgFPGiiExUkJm | public | contract | 1,718,131,042,961 | will-biden-be-40-or-higher-on-polym | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | Will Biden be 40% or higher on Polymarket on any day before July 1st? | null | null | null | null | null |
yww0id2k71a | false | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I am a disappointment",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Savior of Plant | eJqFMlJR7rNhvUaISlOS | public | contract | 1,718,131,103,657 | on-what-days-this-month-will-i-spen | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | On what days this month will I spend at least an hour attempting to meditate? | null | null | 0 | NO | stqvn5eids |
aagxvsid3ze | false | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kgwqmn22pq",
"label": "Hazel",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Soli ꩜ | qKZnUG5ZWu1BzkeKcB34 | public | contract | 1,718,131,153,541 | will-dalle-3-consistently-generate-822e0ace6fa0 | Soli | Will DALL-E 3+ consistently generate accurate images from the prompt "yellow ocean, blue sand" before 2025? | kgwqmn22pq | 0.301635 | 2,259.596793 | YES | null | |
7hhxn0foki | false | Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "A new poll has come out putting the Conservatives on just 18% of the vote, this is currently down 27% on the last general election and only 9% higher t... | Harry Hayfield | 5UV2Q6JKh70yP0uM6OUk | public | contract | 1,718,131,221,940 | will-the-conservative-vote-at-the-g | HarryHayfield | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKLO6vk94dAyRIB1WNPhDkrZK8ww8OiBc6b0ZnDQw48Zv4=s96-c | Will the Conservative vote at the 2024 General Election be HIGHER than their 2019 European Election result of 9%? | null | null | null | null | null |
p35sctjgysi | false | oSyhdaaBLYgR3tLXoGgKJzDTxtL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "aagxvsid3ze",
"label": "Soli",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Hazel | qKZnUG5ZWu1BzkeKcB34 | public | contract | 1,718,131,226,188 | will-dalle-3-consistently-generate-822e0ace6fa0 | Hazel | Will DALL-E 3+ consistently generate accurate images from the prompt "yellow ocean, blue sand" before 2025? | kgwqmn22pq | 0.301635 | 4,326.863559 | YES | null | |
fxhvzng5pc6 | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I updated some probabilities but I think the spirit of this question is that I would have already resolved it yes if a yes resolution was correct, so r... | Joshua | zr1MibMZUcbBt5kGmlkq | public | contract | 1,718,131,384,903 | festival-personal-predictions-what | Joshua | Festival Personal Predictions: What will attendees say they did while attending Manifest / Less Online / Summer Camp? | null | null | 1,221.022638 | YES | gfev4dkhc0 | |
o06rqof1kl | false | QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "eml2khesgvw",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | M L | itwkoNdUJeo3jo0dCFET | public | contract | 1,718,131,473,811 | the-538-election-model-will-give-tr | ML12d1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c | The 538 Election Model will give Trump what % chance of winning the election? [High Precision] | eml2khesgvw | null | 289.793356 | YES | aedd26efe20b |
iejzuoq8m3e | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I am sorry if i look like an idiot here.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
... | Kongo Landwalker | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,131,530,286 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | KongoLandwalker | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | squksptqysl | 1 | 1,848.371073 | NO | null | |
94zwmvx0olg | false | X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6ef6x7golfd",
"label": "KongoLandwalker",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},... | Daniel Tello | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,131,785,617 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | deagol | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | squksptqysl | 1 | 1.169556 | YES | null |
acxw05pdl27 | false | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"lang... | Haws | dDHfnL7yT18fbFN3CfRm | public | contract | 1,718,131,841,676 | will-hunter-biden-be-found-guilty-f | Haws | Will Hunter Biden be found guilty for any of the 3 charges in the gun case? | null | null | null | null | null | |
f67eyi5uv7v | false | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This resolves YES",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Haws | dDHfnL7yT18fbFN3CfRm | public | contract | 1,718,131,851,153 | will-hunter-biden-be-found-guilty-f | Haws | Will Hunter Biden be found guilty for any of the 3 charges in the gun case? | null | null | null | null | null | |
xcxw4gf48mn | false | vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "i hold this at 80-90%",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
... | Campbell Hutcheson | 5M2I0YYBYCstkwDI3yDK | public | contract | 1,718,132,044,389 | will-openai-pay-scientific-publishe | CampbellHutcheson | Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025? | null | 0.63826 | 496.894015 | YES | null | |
55thilijr8t | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "d5w5ptr6exi",
"label": "Jan53274",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | 9WXgDpKC7UyF4mh34NlP | public | contract | 1,718,132,071,137 | if-human-brain-emulations-are-creat | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | If human brain emulations are created, will they outnumber the biological human population within a decade? | tm3yx9r5p8 | 0.524615 | 9.446583 | NO | null |
6kg2653ynn4 | false | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Question for Manifold devs and mods. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"ma... | Haws | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,132,173,923 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | Haws | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | null | 1 | 683.792966 | NO | null | |
jzqflepuke | false | X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "iejzuoq8m3e",
"label": "KongoLandwalker",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},... | Daniel Tello | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,132,185,191 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | deagol | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | squksptqysl | 1 | 1.169556 | YES | null |
7wdnhy4wrxu | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "</3",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | dd7xzz1Nvopy1ojZcR6x | public | contract | 1,718,132,215,483 | will-lighthaven-shut-down-in-2024-d | strutheo | Will Lighthaven shut down in 2024 due to lack of funds? | null | null | null | null | null | |
kwq0fcb0lan | false | vcRnogNTojb2z8RejfxaYDwYs6B3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I dig them and will probably vote for them, but doubling the European election vote in an election with the 5% bar will be difficult to say the least. ... | A. Dings | T6rN8CL5Zrf7b7HvpD3M | public | contract | 1,718,132,421,204 | will-volt-be-elected-into-the-next | ADings | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKyQmiXuUz7vNTKFEGxzvoGhgYnrN03vcCFlsSwpc7SDg=s96-c | Will Volt be elected into the next Bundestag (2025)? | null | 0.174397 | 120.598256 | NO | null |
s1sjamdodjs | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "d5w5ptr6exi",
"label": "Jan53274",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | 9WXgDpKC7UyF4mh34NlP | public | contract | 1,718,132,458,252 | if-human-brain-emulations-are-creat | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | If human brain emulations are created, will they outnumber the biological human population within a decade? | tm3yx9r5p8 | 0.524615 | 9.446583 | NO | null |
kiim3lddec | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If you spend a week on it you will succeed. if you spend 5 minutes on it you will not. how much time do you intend to spend attempting this this week? ... | Bayesian | S6kKBjATXOHIxotgS8Kq | public | contract | 1,718,132,480,534 | will-i-be-able-to-paste-in-vim-with | Bayesian | Will I be able to paste in vim within a week of posting this market? | null | null | null | null | null | |
57y4ky5x3xc | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6kg2653ynn4",
"label": "Haws",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Kongo Landwalker | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,132,494,204 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | KongoLandwalker | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | 6kg2653ynn4 | 1 | 1,848.371073 | NO | null | |
ug7zvsrluor | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6kg2653ynn4",
"label": "Haws",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Bayesian | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,132,570,805 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | Bayesian | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | 6kg2653ynn4 | 1 | 30,333.169525 | NO | null | |
n1jr1a6qji | false | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "2 So Far With None Showing As Planned On The Flights Manifest",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
... | SirCryptomind | wEi5qDeI3zZX1ajXPxi5 | public | contract | 1,718,132,590,240 | how-many-virgin-galactic-launches-w | SirCryptomind | 🚀 How Many Virgin Galactic Launches Will Occur During First Half (January-June) 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
d3c52w3bn5s | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Ziddletwix | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,718,132,601,949 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | Ziddletwix | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | null | null | 5,079.914396 | YES | 26eee8e05d65 | |
2alhcb5d4cn | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "d5w5ptr6exi",
"label": "Jan53274",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | 9WXgDpKC7UyF4mh34NlP | public | contract | 1,718,132,658,340 | if-human-brain-emulations-are-creat | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | If human brain emulations are created, will they outnumber the biological human population within a decade? | tm3yx9r5p8 | 0.524615 | 9.446583 | NO | null |
xkwmm625fx8 | false | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "1 So far with none showing planned on Flight Manifest",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs... | SirCryptomind | N3P2qgYwblIOpG3NqZGf | public | contract | 1,718,132,665,341 | how-many-blue-origin-launches-will | SirCryptomind | 🚀 How Many Blue Origin Launches Will Occur During First Half (January-June) 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
zdf4fqrcwbd | false | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "jzrxvq5qeyc",
"label": "MaxHarms",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Ihor Kendiukhov | InfkbfL3uNM9GNq9qgKy | public | contract | 1,718,132,905,123 | will-there-be-a-relatively-selfsust | IhorKendiukhov | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050? | jzrxvq5qeyc | 0.19212 | 19.234326 | NO | null |
0if5ser5nh2g | false | bzaLzQXeU3NwzawClYtJkNxc5fj1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Great value on YES. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
... | Daniel | A7fYbwvQcKaMDliixfYR | public | contract | 1,718,132,905,424 | will-jb-pritzker-run-for-president | DanielRohrer | Will JB Pritzker run for President in 2028? | null | null | null | null | null | |
s9i12lgt34i | false | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "8djm1wxnxm3",
"label": "bluerat",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Ihor Kendiukhov | InfkbfL3uNM9GNq9qgKy | public | contract | 1,718,132,926,131 | will-there-be-a-relatively-selfsust | IhorKendiukhov | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050? | 8djm1wxnxm3 | 0.19212 | 19.234326 | NO | null |
58pie7lijol | false | bzaLzQXeU3NwzawClYtJkNxc5fj1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Daniel | 1eioMjtxSQJ3mozxYdCc | public | contract | 1,718,133,091,419 | will-gavin-newsom-run-for-president-30346a07294e | DanielRohrer | Will Gavin Newsom run for President in the 2028 election? | null | null | null | null | null | |
yzdzor9ycj | false | bzaLzQXeU3NwzawClYtJkNxc5fj1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "related ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
... | Daniel | am9xH59tAlU6zSfggASR | public | contract | 1,718,133,110,004 | will-gavin-newsom-run-for-president-858a794a5a3a | DanielRohrer | Will Gavin Newsom run for president in 2028? | null | null | null | null | null | |
5r4fgbg3j79 | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "wxpb00ic72d",
"label": "SteveSokolowski",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | 8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo | public | contract | 1,718,133,151,353 | what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | ☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | u7p6xtxtfo | null | 50.420217 | YES | 0107c1e81977 |
0ntui8j9kank | false | Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ever? Or before November 19?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Andrew Smith | RvD35vNOECSMbI5MFSV8 | public | contract | 1,718,133,602,273 | will-any-version-of-coyote-vs-acme | asmith | Will any version of coyote vs acme leak or release? | null | null | null | null | null | |
k5xuhtlabr | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Hot take (willing to be convinced otherwise): Removing hamas without war crimes > ceasefire after already destroying almost everything and allowing ham... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | 7A4eJaKpv95A06ZrHqRR | public | contract | 1,718,133,703,642 | would-you-support-an-ip-ceasefire-i | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Would you support an I/P ceasefire if Hamas was restored control over Gaza and all hostages were returned | null | null | null | null | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.