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d9wsuug996
false
5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Not clear to me that 100% is achievable. Usually benchmarks suffer from some degree of under-specification/error. I've created an 85% (human-level) ver...
Jacob Pfau
Ke7k9WJc5WdWi0N6nPni
public
contract
1,718,133,716,363
ai-solves-the-abstraction-and-reaso
JacobPfau
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9AcHAinEt-V5Xi8pbj83HmY8nWf1vkc_FfNTDr=s96-c
AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2025
null
0.17672
6.465129
YES
null
y7htl8z46jb
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This poll could do with unsure/conflicted and lizardman options", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "t...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
7A4eJaKpv95A06ZrHqRR
public
contract
1,718,133,801,091
would-you-support-an-ip-ceasefire-i
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Would you support an I/P ceasefire if Hamas was restored control over Gaza and all hostages were returned
null
null
null
null
null
7ivjm5s9krg
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "NYT did a pretty thorough investigation already ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Shaked Koplewitz
NKM6oCA1aVmnxnYkB9JH
public
contract
1,718,133,938,052
will-the-oct-7-rape-claims-be-subst
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Will the Oct 7 rape claims be substantiated by an independent investigation?
null
null
null
null
null
ack27636kcl
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Israel doesn't seem to be going for \"full control\" of anywhere in Gaza, just removing terrorist infrastructure and enable follow up raids to prevent ...
Shaked Koplewitz
gwTjk3vGB9EM5awpxXFY
public
contract
1,718,134,073,391
will-israel-control-rafah-by-the-en-5cb18c613b85
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Will Israel control Rafah by the end of July?
null
0.644459
129.429766
NO
null
nj097feta4b
false
pp3fg6e4EybziUJVfMKaDNDAOVh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Surviving in captivity only counts as not extinct right?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "...
mario pasquato
VvYa4J5WxaK6ke15h0Tj
public
contract
1,718,134,233,241
will-the-giraffe-giraffa-camelopard
mariopasquato
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtemzqYFS4zuvOtBu7Ko52uxERLtlEzFHTvhCP-noDEfACs=s96-c
Will the Giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis) become extinct in the current century?
null
0.390188
23.824701
NO
null
v2b88jgbkdo
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Joshua
aGkuWqGUL0sQFaR03sps
public
contract
1,718,134,606,808
will-elon-musk-be-googled-more-than
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Elon Musk be googled more than Kanye West on any day in May, in the US?
null
0.929815
0
YES
null
kgtaccar6jp
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Timothy Johnson
sNvW83UKz56mRDfUBvZQ
public
contract
1,718,134,625,900
will-there-be-an-israelhamas-ceasef-9d4386c2f0ad
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of July 4th?
null
0.343279
590.889981
NO
null
u7qxc1qyk8k
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5c3q7s68u5n", "label": "WilliamEhlhardt", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Benjamin Ikuta
ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl
public
contract
1,718,134,643,265
will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024?
5c3q7s68u5n
null
null
null
null
0pbm1a0qi4ce
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Saw many impressive people doing impressive things, but I was most impressed by Michael's sketches of various users' avatars and various aspects of the...
Joshua
QSAeVAgZEFR5tpgIIynS
public
contract
1,718,134,830,625
what-will-be-the-single-most-impres
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
What will be the single most impressive action that I witness at Less Online & Manifest?
null
null
0
YES
5e67a0a75b56
sqa423kje3l
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "AN9AbmVUKMIFAgJyU5aI", "label": "/yunglady/will-i-be-pegged-in-2024", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, ...
stefanie
KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm
public
contract
1,718,134,872,504
will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will I eat ass in the next 24...?
null
null
1,345.900233
YES
40237ce68101
0zsclipx4ck
false
5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ":o", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ismellpillows
LozsKGPfLsgoFC9WbjNW
public
contract
1,718,134,946,769
who-will-win-the-1m-usd-buyin-high
ismellpillows
https://firebasestorage.…d2d-d6578fd4939a
Who will win the 1M USD buy-in High Roller Chess Tournament?
null
null
42.025206
YES
jmlscvjsun
0fgcvkmp6oy
false
yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Related:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractId...
Paper Boy
m0XIryprTeXqJl10hats
public
contract
1,718,135,030,909
will-rfk-jr-get-at-least-5-percent
PaperBoy
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c
Will RFK Jr. get at least 5 percent of the national popular vote?
null
null
null
null
null
qzowhw7hfv
false
dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think Hurley made the right choice. He has a good thing going over there with UConn. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "pa...
ReeMARKable
w2vG5o1lFlSwrpuiKqVf
public
contract
1,718,135,133,753
who-will-be-the-next-head-coach-of-b5748dcd7ea3
ReeMARKable
https://firebasestorage.…198-b06ea07e9f66
Who will be the next head coach of the Los Angeles Lakers?
null
null
536.781413
YES
3e05d1ecf5d8
imxfop55dp
false
dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uo1fwg9zpfd", "label": "jacksonpolack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Alex B. Goode
5M2I0YYBYCstkwDI3yDK
public
contract
1,718,135,147,569
will-openai-pay-scientific-publishe
AlexbGoode
https://firebasestorage.…43d-e9f8224e3fb7
Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?
uo1fwg9zpfd
null
null
null
null
x5823iq0bd
false
vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "62dm6pgyade", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Manifold Politics
F8GfRvkS1FXCSWkwgzPK
public
contract
1,718,135,297,516
will-trump-beat-biden-in-nevada-pol-903cf5184858
ManifoldPolitics
https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621
Will Trump beat Biden in Nevada polling at the beginning of July? (538)
62dm6pgyade
0.9
178.213299
YES
null
t2k9awba1f
false
evfOfV4Sm1cv8ONlwl4I6KOwk4f2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hannity now floating that Trump should not participate. I think Trump is setting the stage to pull out. ", "type": "text" } ],...
BennyBoy
HDTx6AnWkBXgKAWEAkZz
public
contract
1,718,135,421,621
will-donald-trump-and-joe-biden-deb-5a68b14cf981
BennyBoy
https://firebasestorage.…c9c-86f10ac9a50c
Will Donald Trump and Joe Biden debate on June 27th as planned?
null
0.896826
3,154.590587
NO
null
j310pviuw8
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133", "label": "jim", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
nikki
GVWenHSlgF6jWBh5NJrX
public
contract
1,718,135,503,843
will-i-have-fun-at-manifest-2024
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
will i have fun at manifest 2024
null
null
null
null
null
zl69813hfh
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "j310pviuw8", "label": "nikki", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
jim
GVWenHSlgF6jWBh5NJrX
public
contract
1,718,135,649,661
will-i-have-fun-at-manifest-2024
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
will i have fun at manifest 2024
j310pviuw8
0.69
0
NO
null
7dmzatq63l4
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zl69813hfh", "label": "jim", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
stefanie
GVWenHSlgF6jWBh5NJrX
public
contract
1,718,135,661,768
will-i-have-fun-at-manifest-2024
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
will i have fun at manifest 2024
j310pviuw8
0.69
24.60697
YES
null
g7oghelrct
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7dmzatq63l4", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
jim
GVWenHSlgF6jWBh5NJrX
public
contract
1,718,135,711,259
will-i-have-fun-at-manifest-2024
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
will i have fun at manifest 2024
j310pviuw8
0.69
0
NO
null
nl7ir9g0vi8
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dNDRBKODs0SA7nmcHz9IHJCcNLz2", "label": "Esplin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Savior of Plant
8sBbblQ7PJBJasGhJQJa
public
contract
1,718,135,803,537
magill-tard-fight-what-proportion-o
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Magill Tard Fight: What proportion of new gc members will actually participate (say something even once)?
null
null
3,061.102083
NO
ncyzfauf52
yp0tsi16kdg
false
js1u8BIyzjVoBjkM1YQgueA0bav1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm pretty sure this means I won Manifest.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JohnofCharleston
fMSodkfUDj3LxECrRgdr
public
contract
1,718,135,892,766
best-manifest-out-of-context-quote
JohnofCharleston
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7uw9wqj12zSkINvp2TjDpvLAn3j0gX7j7-RLYCrA=s96-c
Best Manifest Out Of Context Quote
null
null
456.764039
YES
lo4yprokxf
b43sizjr8mv
false
jfaeGZZWDZaaTNyPhSmQr1LFt112
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I thought this market estimate of 68% was very off-base, in presuming quick advanced in lab-grown meat. I think doing that affordably and at scale is u...
Maxim Lott
pNj8l23XptX5hLyTQFcG
public
contract
1,718,136,088,879
animal-farming-will-be-less-than-10
MaximLott
https://firebasestorage.…a8b-f672dacd4cd4
In 2068, will animal farming will be less than 10% of its size as of 2023?
null
0.217933
1,597.821108
NO
null
dk0lln60qy
false
jfaeGZZWDZaaTNyPhSmQr1LFt112
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "b43sizjr8mv", "label": "MaximLott", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Maxim Lott
pNj8l23XptX5hLyTQFcG
public
contract
1,718,136,110,115
animal-farming-will-be-less-than-10
MaximLott
https://firebasestorage.…a8b-f672dacd4cd4
In 2068, will animal farming will be less than 10% of its size as of 2023?
b43sizjr8mv
0.217933
1,597.821108
NO
null
1rr5c4w2ddj
false
DQ2RrGtZJee7Ddv6dTLcVIRy9OZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "z5d0k5a7vs8", "label": "hannah", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Raz Dvora
mtbESy0tYkFzErZph6mV
public
contract
1,718,136,196,719
what-will-i-win-at-imo-2024
RazDvora
https://storage.googleap…dTLcVIRy9OZ2.png
What will I win at IMO 2024?
z5d0k5a7vs8
null
null
null
null
uif8zzu15nk
false
dp5qoJAOmqgfNGxbRm00x8b9bU03
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "v2b88jgbkdo", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Mactuary
aGkuWqGUL0sQFaR03sps
public
contract
1,718,136,250,577
will-elon-musk-be-googled-more-than
Mactuary
https://firebasestorage.…977-b24dde9fa772
Will Elon Musk be googled more than Kanye West on any day in May, in the US?
v2b88jgbkdo
1
288.320227
NO
null
suw9rcflrf7
false
EEMvPYOTVhNImhFrcKiTiz6LWLi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why does it close on Dec 4 rather than Dec 31?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Egg Syntax
AxjVvY3ODsYROrnOgANi
public
contract
1,718,136,293,561
will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai
EggSyntax
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYGVUtGd8a3daEGGiCpPAxMbqi_S_jqeMFndRhlfW0=s96-c
Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
n67vue2duhe
false
5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "suw9rcflrf7", "label": "EggSyntax", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jacob Pfau
AxjVvY3ODsYROrnOgANi
public
contract
1,718,136,559,304
will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai
JacobPfau
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9AcHAinEt-V5Xi8pbj83HmY8nWf1vkc_FfNTDr=s96-c
Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?
suw9rcflrf7
null
null
null
null
qe8ot0pko4b
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ug7zvsrluor", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Haws
7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ
public
contract
1,718,136,623,369
will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?
6kg2653ynn4
1
683.792966
NO
null
xueyukuy7y
false
KNqZAiItmVTCX0LzUcj8Twg7tnh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "label": "JonathanRay", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
snazzlePop
cCKe5crr6hlARaVQvGtl
public
contract
1,718,136,667,459
will-my-followup-covid-test-be-posi
snazzlePop
https://firebasestorage.…4df-4312e7a7f92b
Will my follow-up covid test be positive?
5ebrihk0guc
0.344927
9,252.075226
YES
null
9ypiizl3t3m
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "g7oghelrct", "label": "jim", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
nikki
GVWenHSlgF6jWBh5NJrX
public
contract
1,718,136,805,011
will-i-have-fun-at-manifest-2024
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
will i have fun at manifest 2024
j310pviuw8
null
null
null
null
b92r4qe31c5
false
cN3ujtldAGXdzCg4ick5yD6kTWC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tfopbnhje4a", "label": "SusanneinFrance", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Robi Rahman
fJAiEvdVMr398612SYnu
public
contract
1,718,136,912,928
where-will-i-live-in-september-2024
RobiRahman
https://firebasestorage.…0e6-7570312209c2
Where will I live in September 2024?
r2l6xefxbo
null
153.533364
YES
9217f431ed71
86gpouyw827
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "ok i'm pretty clueless about chess—what's the incentive here? surely the edge between the players is somewhat \"clear\", so who is willing to stake the...
Ziddletwix
LozsKGPfLsgoFC9WbjNW
public
contract
1,718,136,914,876
who-will-win-the-1m-usd-buyin-high
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will win the 1M USD buy-in High Roller Chess Tournament?
null
null
null
null
null
dpvu5db1i9
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bears got blown the fuck out on this one", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Haws
N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40
public
contract
1,718,137,011,468
will-the-close-price-of-alphabet-in-0qppbwxmco
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Will the close price of Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) be higher than the previous day? [Closes early]
null
null
102.455063
YES
x4coldsomm
pyn65o60tkq
false
EEMvPYOTVhNImhFrcKiTiz6LWLi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "@JacobPfau Ahh, thanks, I missed that.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Egg Syntax
AxjVvY3ODsYROrnOgANi
public
contract
1,718,137,061,581
will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai
EggSyntax
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYGVUtGd8a3daEGGiCpPAxMbqi_S_jqeMFndRhlfW0=s96-c
Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?
suw9rcflrf7
null
null
null
null
c3tfs6iv8d8
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Trying a new format for this one - anyone have any thoughts? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "typ...
Savior of Plant
7RqfQa0I0hviAhkckOMw
public
contract
1,718,137,079,785
what-countries-will-win-medals-in-t
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
What countries will win medals in the Archery Men's Individual at the Paris Olympics? [BRONZE=16%,SILVER=33%,GOLD=50%]
null
null
117.280189
YES
bu63opd334
wjo3092l0wg
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nKlq3behIUMn0fqTY2hLvK2k5I32", "label": "Exegesis", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Haws
ZDorRfxLNqK4JzV8x2Sc
public
contract
1,718,137,200,415
tump-v-biden-debate-bingo
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Trump v Biden debate BINGO [First debate hosted by CNN]
null
null
null
null
null
ig0cce5t0k
false
HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I enjoyed #2 more! a little better organized + better events. but it’s close I think", "type": "text" } ], "type": "parag...
Conflux
ChWSmXZRdmv3z9MVAMDp
public
contract
1,718,137,415,338
will-the-second-manifest-be-better
Conflux
https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17
Will the second Manifest be better than the first?
null
0.849331
996.903249
NO
null
zb7me0kxysf
false
MWW2zdtdTcVPBIcmJMWpNwKTikp2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "At 98.4% odds, we'd need the group we're sampling from to be individually 99.92% likely, on average, to consent to banging in the event that it's offer...
Byrne Hobart
5YCd1Ldll79l9DRAFCjP
public
contract
1,718,137,504,207
will-aella-bang-all-20-people-on-th
ByrneHobart
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyWRUkVKow5CE1qtRKVDnXQoCE5tuz9y0VWxPCn=s96-c
Will Aella bang all 20 people on the manifold all-time leaderboard to raise funds for charity?
null
0.016742
253.730724
NO
null
yxiljsatzsn
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sqa423kje3l", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Pat Scott🩴
KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm
public
contract
1,718,137,510,943
will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will I eat ass in the next 24...?
sqa423kje3l
null
282.45773
YES
a06afbcc5807
dfywfrd0b7u
false
9mfhLBysB2Skn0Pu11U95dCVrdL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "H0A9HRaycdzmFane8Kgx", "label": "Pykess", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Harrison Dorn
2eYepv728Nb32pjafPkr
public
contract
1,718,137,586,474
will-humane-ai-be-sold-or-fold-in-2
HarrisonDorn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLjhZvCf5cfyJEZoacc9XcOrfaxkk_a4fYBf-f7_AEqsyFZ5f4f_w=s96-c
Will Humane AI be sold or fold in 2024?
H0A9HRaycdzmFane8Kgx
0.793886
510.321187
NO
null
hm3xvm9rt3q
false
Ljs38fqJp1djJPchj4w0Yo86yX63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Interested in helping make this happen but I live out of state. If it happens at a time when I'd be in the area anyhow though...", "type": "t...
Hacking
suJZXabJMU8b3huF4s1a
public
contract
1,718,138,063,768
-will-i-organize-another-cuddle-pud
SeekingEternity
https://firebasestorage.…cda-7ccda5e42b13
🤗 Will I organize another cuddle puddle in SF Bay Area?
null
null
null
null
null
y278tvuq1y
false
lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I only have until 11am tomorrow morning and I'm tired!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "do...
Alex
HAARQBlOVqXRCeZ3XKpf
public
contract
1,718,138,163,177
will-i-finish-a-ui-demo-of-my-writi
Alex
https://firebasestorage.…886-0bd02ecd58e4
Will I finish a UI demo of my writing tool by tomorrow's manager one on one?
null
50
8.952915
YES
null
4ib52t21848
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Could be", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
RemNi
dE0BDBaASgel3xpUgLFN
public
contract
1,718,138,174,148
is-graph-isomorphism-in-p
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Is Graph Isomorphism in P?
null
null
null
null
null
5dl7yyqeet7
false
HW8FLxBmGZNRMLejKnomKho1k563
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "r2eyut8yw8", "label": "osmarks", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Alex Kropivny
OiJ9KnW29ImsmlHrg4sO
public
contract
1,718,138,384,626
is-the-promethean-virus-in-large-la
alexkropivny
https://firebasestorage.…b16-0d5179e3c0ad
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
r2eyut8yw8
0.129636
1,028.499548
YES
null
rbxru1olz9e
false
04wvS0E3jSZCB9PgL6IKCWKDEMi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "a9cow17kchc", "label": "singer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ij Kayone
hMzyNv0iLmvxHpNPXTlJ
public
contract
1,718,138,429,658
will-chatgpt-read-this-tictactoe-bo
ijk1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdhu4bCTNc1n-E1g0iffYUWC8ePwAl4pFxyvk4YrUxDTOLE=s96-c
Will chatgpt read this tic-tac-toe board correctly before 2025?
a9cow17kchc
null
null
null
null
88iq5x9bl4j
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "mxap4m9dpns", "label": "josh", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
RemNi
0buTWMqxRwkduBImztb9
public
contract
1,718,138,468,839
will-github-implement-a-blanket-ban
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will GitHub implement a blanket ban on voice cloning projects before 2026?
mxap4m9dpns
0.210575
172.137426
YES
null
abbqywf0yct
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
RemNi
0buTWMqxRwkduBImztb9
public
contract
1,718,138,493,915
will-github-implement-a-blanket-ban
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will GitHub implement a blanket ban on voice cloning projects before 2026?
null
0.210575
172.137426
YES
null
ijq4a89eb5
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "svqbhg02w5", "label": "ViniciusMoreira", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Chris Billington
BetSXeRHXok6VdfPtkp8
public
contract
1,718,138,535,110
will-spacexs-starship-superheavy-la
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
u6pol2i4t4
0.26
158,593.179985
NO
null
uvdi76tbhcm
false
LcDZdOmQdJSKB2mwuFImstJyeMz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Elon Musk on Tuesday withdrew his lawsuit against OpenAI and two of the c...
Julia
LRWIDTd2ihQTizyvqesT
public
contract
1,718,138,664,107
what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-elo-e7b8c4282686
Juliafe02
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKN7DH35BsTDdg70SRBD644lLdIrDbiwh5qoUqcGb7kFRU=s96-c
What will be the outcome of the Elon Musk vs. OpenAI lawsuit?
null
null
1,115.377199
YES
3642f16616e7
lszjhfkfrn
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3RBKyadH6YdskM2FPlgQ4KyBqOT2", "label": "ViniciusMoreira", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "me...
Chris Billington
FbKnhJJhitEU5OmGEqvU
public
contract
1,718,138,736,604
will-the-market-starship-reach-500
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
Will the market Starship Reach 500 Launches be close(less than 100)
null
null
null
null
null
66imbi3y475
false
nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "WHO wants to gamble? Just bought more on the Yes side bringing the % to 85", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
TSLABull
xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f
public
contract
1,718,138,812,109
will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e
MolbyDick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXY86BCu6RTvqG8yEFc5Y7D_S97tCf20jO2Z8tVPKaaUqG14DA9PLqiLMFEeMfNIZqYYE4tIzI_BrVccd4GjslXsd5xpRxNHEYntNGm2gIyorhNQXCFWaGveqVbopCKtvW8Hxom_b74OxRgIK95auugOa5P56HIijcmp8zUBmze5fHo3g0ex4yJjnK3v7cvgEOF25_-TG4N8zJWXs8h_RcZDoDOKDs__GbJIprrIRmH0xBPqyMPjM6JiRSy1sfS72DHbE53wywXJmkbjC8pw3F...
Will Tesla stock reach >$ 275 by 8/8 of this year?
null
0.158598
12,265.728344
YES
null
3eyyyrn8idu
false
ldCLxO4AHHTftNiB9x4izsM64Em2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5kglvw50y9n", "label": "Guess", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
retr0id
i7MP3oGFn6nUnrHe9aG5
public
contract
1,718,138,829,187
will-the-nintendo-switch-2-be-hacke
retr0id
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ6nAjEdqeNlohfS74yM5ocPFfIJB0TO-3ttc3BFqAH0Sk=s96-c
Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" be hacked within 12 months of its release date?
5kglvw50y9n
0.486242
78.809524
NO
null
xa9btiwsfog
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "66imbi3y475", "label": "MolbyDick", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Base
xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f
public
contract
1,718,138,856,991
will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
Will Tesla stock reach >$ 275 by 8/8 of this year?
66imbi3y475
0.158598
2,676.597905
NO
null
ur4jxjbifmr
false
lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Edited the bounds of the game - if I delay my one on one to Thursday, it still counts as YES", "type": "text" } ], "type"...
Alex
HAARQBlOVqXRCeZ3XKpf
public
contract
1,718,138,864,400
will-i-finish-a-ui-demo-of-my-writi
Alex
https://firebasestorage.…886-0bd02ecd58e4
Will I finish a UI demo of my writing tool by my next manager one on one?
null
0.55215
8.952915
YES
null
n7w8qz6wnlp
false
Bl8vNHDPIqbyXDYCKTQU5JK0Nqt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Edited the description for clarity ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Branden Foote
2eYepv728Nb32pjafPkr
public
contract
1,718,138,920,841
will-humane-ai-be-sold-or-fold-in-2
BrandenFoote
https://storage.googleap…KTQU5JK0Nqt2.png
Will Humane AI be sold or fold in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
jfpr6vb57w
false
TUvm26ov7fefFj7KYBSHuE49s2M2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thanks for everyone that participated in this market. If you liked this one, please check out one of my others! 🙏 ", "type": "text" ...
John Carpenter
VBurppkKtEMwvn4PlsAo
public
contract
1,718,138,971,923
when-will-the-stock-price-of-aapl-c
JohnCarpenter
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbnMbgGdE9ZUUqzpL2THIy9BWVUALl8URxyyYemF9Ib6JghmvmNA=s96-c
When will AAPL stock close above $200 for the first time?
null
null
174.634804
NO
300aeae17127
59xqlvrsczj
false
nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xa9btiwsfog", "label": "Base", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
TSLABull
xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f
public
contract
1,718,138,978,003
will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e
MolbyDick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXY86BCu6RTvqG8yEFc5Y7D_S97tCf20jO2Z8tVPKaaUqG14DA9PLqiLMFEeMfNIZqYYE4tIzI_BrVccd4GjslXsd5xpRxNHEYntNGm2gIyorhNQXCFWaGveqVbopCKtvW8Hxom_b74OxRgIK95auugOa5P56HIijcmp8zUBmze5fHo3g0ex4yJjnK3v7cvgEOF25_-TG4N8zJWXs8h_RcZDoDOKDs__GbJIprrIRmH0xBPqyMPjM6JiRSy1sfS72DHbE53wywXJmkbjC8pw3F...
Will Tesla stock reach >$ 275 by 8/8 of this year?
66imbi3y475
0.158598
14,775.982273
YES
null
btna0etcjxl
false
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "P75yvzXlWoHWqs3QXqxc", "label": "saulmunn", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ian Philips
ChWSmXZRdmv3z9MVAMDp
public
contract
1,718,138,994,334
will-the-second-manifest-be-better
ian
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
Will the second Manifest be better than the first?
P75yvzXlWoHWqs3QXqxc
0.780692
1,044.003747
YES
null
bb0g7e0yxq
false
lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Nuclear energy + Transportation?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Alex
la7HPJLTAhJzj5rA9UCd
public
contract
1,718,139,088,134
which-combinations-of-technology-wi-4818c0128637
Alex
https://firebasestorage.…886-0bd02ecd58e4
Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 25 years?
null
null
359.887093
NO
r3f5run348
ab7r4vi797l
false
FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "86gpouyw827", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Weezing
LozsKGPfLsgoFC9WbjNW
public
contract
1,718,139,157,067
who-will-win-the-1m-usd-buyin-high
Weezing
https://firebasestorage.…9ac-b0dfa544f276
Who will win the 1M USD buy-in High Roller Chess Tournament?
86gpouyw827
null
774.161314
NO
kezsdqg3gx
airnfu2r2u
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "59xqlvrsczj", "label": "MolbyDick", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Christopher Randles
xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f
public
contract
1,718,139,168,094
will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will Tesla stock reach >$ 275 by 8/8 of this year?
66imbi3y475
0.158598
1,958.956222
NO
null
pm9wz2gqdfi
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
RemNi
vVz4ec93EH9Aubwhs8gM
public
contract
1,718,139,223,800
will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10-9511a17489a9
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 10M views before 2025?
null
0.804238
32.293214
YES
null
eclsew3b4dm
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
chris (strutheo)
bmnXOigFg9yFyz4xvdWM
public
contract
1,718,139,233,153
which-ai-persona-will-win-the-miss
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which AI persona will win the "Miss AI" competition?
null
null
null
null
null
i8a6prvvmf8
false
3RBKyadH6YdskM2FPlgQ4KyBqOT2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lszjhfkfrn", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Vinicius Moreira
FbKnhJJhitEU5OmGEqvU
public
contract
1,718,139,286,919
will-the-market-starship-reach-500
ViniciusMoreira
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfaWmn_rChI0HBQaAci0SRrHU8s8OW_9xXguLY7IAxRpH9u=s96-c
Will the market Starship Reach 500 Launches be close(less than 100)
lszjhfkfrn
0.324615
437.559324
NO
null
7ain82pjopx
false
nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "airnfu2r2u", "label": "ChristopherRandles", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
TSLABull
xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f
public
contract
1,718,139,312,200
will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e
MolbyDick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXY86BCu6RTvqG8yEFc5Y7D_S97tCf20jO2Z8tVPKaaUqG14DA9PLqiLMFEeMfNIZqYYE4tIzI_BrVccd4GjslXsd5xpRxNHEYntNGm2gIyorhNQXCFWaGveqVbopCKtvW8Hxom_b74OxRgIK95auugOa5P56HIijcmp8zUBmze5fHo3g0ex4yJjnK3v7cvgEOF25_-TG4N8zJWXs8h_RcZDoDOKDs__GbJIprrIRmH0xBPqyMPjM6JiRSy1sfS72DHbE53wywXJmkbjC8pw3F...
Will Tesla stock reach >$ 275 by 8/8 of this year?
66imbi3y475
0.158598
14,775.982273
YES
null
nbsk25drp2h
false
nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Share, lets make this a fun one!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "conte...
TSLABull
xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f
public
contract
1,718,139,593,136
will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e
MolbyDick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXY86BCu6RTvqG8yEFc5Y7D_S97tCf20jO2Z8tVPKaaUqG14DA9PLqiLMFEeMfNIZqYYE4tIzI_BrVccd4GjslXsd5xpRxNHEYntNGm2gIyorhNQXCFWaGveqVbopCKtvW8Hxom_b74OxRgIK95auugOa5P56HIijcmp8zUBmze5fHo3g0ex4yJjnK3v7cvgEOF25_-TG4N8zJWXs8h_RcZDoDOKDs__GbJIprrIRmH0xBPqyMPjM6JiRSy1sfS72DHbE53wywXJmkbjC8pw3F...
Will Tesla stock reach >$ 275 by 8/8 of this year?
null
null
null
null
null
4cz3suz7cnv
false
lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "M***** and I lasted 7 months and broke up but there is a nonzero chance of getting back together.", "type": "text" } ], "...
Alex
P15wvSkucTpIVGHAHy8U
public
contract
1,718,139,644,241
who-will-represent-my-longest-relat
Alex
https://firebasestorage.…886-0bd02ecd58e4
Who will represent my longest relationship as of Jan 1, 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
b4yp92xhivc
false
HnyzqGs3sdhBeabLBhGhPgP4i3y2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
NGK
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,718,139,755,454
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
NGK
https://firebasestorage.…0f0-9ab0e24c4f4f
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
null
null
98.337019
YES
51e4cacd136a
t6st8cnm4n8
false
nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "relevent bet: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
TSLABull
fDI1wfsh6SeZdYOOPq6p
public
contract
1,718,139,764,202
will-tesla-shareholders-vote-to-giv
MolbyDick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXY86BCu6RTvqG8yEFc5Y7D_S97tCf20jO2Z8tVPKaaUqG14DA9PLqiLMFEeMfNIZqYYE4tIzI_BrVccd4GjslXsd5xpRxNHEYntNGm2gIyorhNQXCFWaGveqVbopCKtvW8Hxom_b74OxRgIK95auugOa5P56HIijcmp8zUBmze5fHo3g0ex4yJjnK3v7cvgEOF25_-TG4N8zJWXs8h_RcZDoDOKDs__GbJIprrIRmH0xBPqyMPjM6JiRSy1sfS72DHbE53wywXJmkbjC8pw3F...
Will Tesla shareholders vote to give Musk a $56 billion retroactive pay package in June 13th shareholder vote?
null
0.784037
1,466.252745
YES
null
r5gh5r4ch4
false
lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We have been on 2 virtual and 2 in person dates. Unsure if there is a romantic spark, but there is a really nice fwb dynamic atm. ", "type": ...
Alex
P15wvSkucTpIVGHAHy8U
public
contract
1,718,139,764,656
who-will-represent-my-longest-relat
Alex
https://firebasestorage.…886-0bd02ecd58e4
Who will represent my longest relationship as of Jan 1, 2030?
null
null
334.288483
NO
77t9c5fntr
mlxy8aovlzo
false
nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "relevent bet:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "t...
TSLABull
RMFM3cr2j4W4YeCg9lAC
public
contract
1,718,139,778,294
will-tesla-shareholders-reapprove-e
MolbyDick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXY86BCu6RTvqG8yEFc5Y7D_S97tCf20jO2Z8tVPKaaUqG14DA9PLqiLMFEeMfNIZqYYE4tIzI_BrVccd4GjslXsd5xpRxNHEYntNGm2gIyorhNQXCFWaGveqVbopCKtvW8Hxom_b74OxRgIK95auugOa5P56HIijcmp8zUBmze5fHo3g0ex4yJjnK3v7cvgEOF25_-TG4N8zJWXs8h_RcZDoDOKDs__GbJIprrIRmH0xBPqyMPjM6JiRSy1sfS72DHbE53wywXJmkbjC8pw3F...
Will Tesla shareholders re-approve Elon Musk's thrown out pay package?
null
null
null
null
null
00pa0125qqc2
false
lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We went on one date and they have not texted me back but I like them. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
Alex
P15wvSkucTpIVGHAHy8U
public
contract
1,718,139,781,560
who-will-represent-my-longest-relat
Alex
https://firebasestorage.…886-0bd02ecd58e4
Who will represent my longest relationship as of Jan 1, 2030?
null
null
334.288483
NO
77t9c5fntr
r6cvx3lsry
false
IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Andrew
WKsp787qUyy9smxERIlI
public
contract
1,718,139,814,437
will-vegapunk-reveal-imus-existence
AndrewCrosse
https://firebasestorage.…f22-3dec558fe261
Will Vegapunk reveal imu's existence to the world?
null
0.507214
377.656736
NO
null
tv1xbadzmwk
false
IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "r6cvx3lsry", "label": "AndrewCrosse", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Andrew
WKsp787qUyy9smxERIlI
public
contract
1,718,139,835,679
will-vegapunk-reveal-imus-existence
AndrewCrosse
https://firebasestorage.…f22-3dec558fe261
Will Vegapunk reveal imu's existence to the world?
r6cvx3lsry
0.507214
377.656736
NO
null
57208oh9vl6
false
nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gyoownalgp", "label": "RemNi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
TSLABull
e7H4ptTMWeFSWLqg54ws
public
contract
1,718,139,885,891
will-openai-make-the-base-gpt4-or-a
MolbyDick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXY86BCu6RTvqG8yEFc5Y7D_S97tCf20jO2Z8tVPKaaUqG14DA9PLqiLMFEeMfNIZqYYE4tIzI_BrVccd4GjslXsd5xpRxNHEYntNGm2gIyorhNQXCFWaGveqVbopCKtvW8Hxom_b74OxRgIK95auugOa5P56HIijcmp8zUBmze5fHo3g0ex4yJjnK3v7cvgEOF25_-TG4N8zJWXs8h_RcZDoDOKDs__GbJIprrIRmH0xBPqyMPjM6JiRSy1sfS72DHbE53wywXJmkbjC8pw3F...
Will OpenAI make the DALL-E 3 somewhat free like gpt 3.5 on monday? (Inside chatgpt website, not through third parties)
18n95qopj7l
1
128.372008
YES
null
8u1bzq99ubv
false
lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Related questions: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, ...
Alex
A6yrdjMnA3nglCqVgHrg
public
contract
1,718,139,889,463
will-i-enter-a-relationship-in-2024
Alex
https://firebasestorage.…886-0bd02ecd58e4
Will I enter a relationship in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
5h09t5koeo5
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ab7r4vi797l", "label": "Weezing", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
LozsKGPfLsgoFC9WbjNW
public
contract
1,718,139,916,693
who-will-win-the-1m-usd-buyin-high
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will win the 1M USD buy-in High Roller Chess Tournament?
86gpouyw827
null
null
null
null
wstatwap6ha
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "he dropped the suit", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
bSJ1Rgr3zN3EEMNx9V6X
public
contract
1,718,139,971,249
will-elon-musks-lawsuit-against-ope
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will Elon Musk's lawsuit against Open AI be dismissed with prejudice?
null
0.276582
3,391.907937
NO
null
eh6q4ha9dxm
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It seems to have some competitive advantage other places don't have. It can make a good business case. I'm not sure why it's not leased for profit to f...
Rana G
dd7xzz1Nvopy1ojZcR6x
public
contract
1,718,140,041,090
will-lighthaven-shut-down-in-2024-d
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Will Lighthaven shut down in 2024 due to lack of funds?
null
0.38022
77.530233
NO
null
7g2oy06h1we
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "he dropped the suit - resolves Other", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "c...
stefanie
UrNXlZo4cOVknLkrvng5
public
contract
1,718,140,050,122
what-will-happen-with-elon-musks-la
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
What will happen with Elon Musk's lawsuit against Open AI for allegedly violating their non-profit mission?
null
null
7,334.902856
YES
8a60899e9926
nlnxto6sx7
false
X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves YES", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contra...
Daniel Tello
e6CZYhKUdsoP4wH9pzNU
public
contract
1,718,140,060,944
will-apple-stock-break-200-in-2024
deagol
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c
Will Apple Stock break $200 in 2024
null
0.99
3,426.137453
YES
null
thw3mks2vt
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "he dropped it", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { ...
stefanie
aPQyKe2Ev9Qohn3gZQs3
public
contract
1,718,140,091,108
will-the-elon-musk-v-openai-lawsuit
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will the Elon Musk v OpenAI lawsuit be dismissed?
null
null
null
null
null
3dvg0wwnrkb
false
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "d3c52w3bn5s", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Mark Hamill
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,718,140,134,668
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
MarkHamill
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
d3c52w3bn5s
null
1,573.475759
NO
e3890a8cd702
bqxe7n4sfii
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What are you considering a decision? The case is dropped - is this a yes or a no? lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "para...
stefanie
i7n3eyBDASpYBjgdQHzG
public
contract
1,718,140,138,421
will-the-elon-musk-v-openai-lawsuit-e40ffa813440
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will the Elon Musk v OpenAI lawsuit decision be given by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
yrrrzq5ayya
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Case dropped", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { ...
stefanie
Wd2nNZDub5sIXKMJgdm8
public
contract
1,718,140,181,246
what-month-will-the-elon-openai-law
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
What month will the Elon - OpenAI lawsuit end
null
null
1,913.926217
YES
4e59db2db2f7
cvfsrze9c7
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qe8ot0pko4b", "label": "Haws", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Timothy Johnson
7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ
public
contract
1,718,140,294,967
will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?
6kg2653ynn4
1
1,441.004123
YES
null
m8n3zclaw5e
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uvdi76tbhcm", "label": "Juliafe02", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Dan
LRWIDTd2ihQTizyvqesT
public
contract
1,718,140,323,726
what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-elo-e7b8c4282686
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
What will be the outcome of the Elon Musk vs. OpenAI lawsuit?
uvdi76tbhcm
null
0
YES
9eb4c6343e8f
61jw1ht6ygc
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qe8ot0pko4b", "label": "Haws", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Timothy Johnson
7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ
public
contract
1,718,140,402,642
will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?
6kg2653ynn4
1
1,441.004123
YES
null
c8uq4p6xiq
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hvgboisc3kt", "label": "MartinModrak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Plasma Ballin'
KWZC3r9XnsqQkM7O8Jkj
public
contract
1,718,140,432,413
will-joe-biden-get-under-88-of-the
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Will Joe Biden get under 88% of the vote in any of these states in the 2024 Democratic Primary?
hvgboisc3kt
null
103.522465
YES
37d34d98c8cd
ynlnlaqn5sf
false
uKcjazFwIkhMFvhie6cnANL8MTV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Oswald acted alone ... ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
Karl K.
YeQidcr1q8SeMKdamus4
public
contract
1,718,140,451,729
who-orchestrated-jfks-assassination
KarlK
https://firebasestorage.…e18-995693e838cc
Who orchestrated JFK's assassination?
null
null
null
null
null
lmjoe6dxo2i
false
X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2", "label": "nic_kup", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Daniel Tello
K2YJ77WO1CiNkf21NIcK
public
contract
1,718,140,486,994
will-aapl-hit-200-before-hitting-10
deagol
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c
Will AAPL hit $200 before hitting $100?
null
0.984272
27,500.564121
YES
null
7crxnp175h7
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Wikipedia lists this as 80.7%: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": ...
Plasma Ballin'
KWZC3r9XnsqQkM7O8Jkj
public
contract
1,718,140,519,062
will-joe-biden-get-under-88-of-the
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Will Joe Biden get under 88% of the vote in any of these states in the 2024 Democratic Primary?
null
null
103.522465
YES
37d34d98c8cd
7dlzg3xvacl
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Kongo Landwalker
hFPCWK6F9Ec6OdCtFXkJ
public
contract
1,718,140,557,342
will-russia-invade-a-new-country-by
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
null
0.489245
802.500837
NO
null
8xju00n1rg6
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "61jw1ht6ygc", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Haws
7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ
public
contract
1,718,140,573,192
will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?
6kg2653ynn4
1
683.792966
NO
null
q2f007ic1l
false
z0cH5XmIM9XgWFOBAILQWt0fTHr1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "btna0etcjxl", "label": "ian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Rachel
ChWSmXZRdmv3z9MVAMDp
public
contract
1,718,140,610,230
will-the-second-manifest-be-better
rachel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr7YCsixsa7V2jXk_XiVJPYixsOTsXOURbZDyqIAQ=s96-c
Will the second Manifest be better than the first?
P75yvzXlWoHWqs3QXqxc
null
null
null
null
q8825xvvjnk
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "57208oh9vl6", "label": "PedroSobral", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Plasma Ballin'
e7H4ptTMWeFSWLqg54ws
public
contract
1,718,140,695,738
will-openai-make-the-base-gpt4-or-a
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Will OpenAI make the DALL-E 3 somewhat free like gpt 3.5 on monday? (Inside chatgpt website, not through third parties)
18n95qopj7l
null
null
null
null
6vorxnqg88o
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kagp6zjz8np", "label": "JoeandSeth", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
stefanie
ChWSmXZRdmv3z9MVAMDp
public
contract
1,718,140,730,687
will-the-second-manifest-be-better
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will the second Manifest be better than the first?
kagp6zjz8np
0.856595
930.60262
YES
null
3x2su37tbej
false
nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "q8825xvvjnk", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
TSLABull
e7H4ptTMWeFSWLqg54ws
public
contract
1,718,140,778,201
will-openai-make-the-base-gpt4-or-a
MolbyDick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXY86BCu6RTvqG8yEFc5Y7D_S97tCf20jO2Z8tVPKaaUqG14DA9PLqiLMFEeMfNIZqYYE4tIzI_BrVccd4GjslXsd5xpRxNHEYntNGm2gIyorhNQXCFWaGveqVbopCKtvW8Hxom_b74OxRgIK95auugOa5P56HIijcmp8zUBmze5fHo3g0ex4yJjnK3v7cvgEOF25_-TG4N8zJWXs8h_RcZDoDOKDs__GbJIprrIRmH0xBPqyMPjM6JiRSy1sfS72DHbE53wywXJmkbjC8pw3F...
Will OpenAI make the DALL-E 3 somewhat free like gpt 3.5 on monday? (Inside chatgpt website, not through third parties)
18n95qopj7l
1
128.372008
YES
null
c5q32u2zpr
false
IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Andrew
CHPtRg00U6Sj2kAm3gm6
public
contract
1,718,140,807,420
will-bitcoin-be-above-68000-usd-at
AndrewCrosse
https://firebasestorage.…f22-3dec558fe261
Will bitcoin be above 68,000 usd at the end of June
null
null
null
null
null