id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2
classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2
values | commentType stringclasses 1
value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2
values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ypn4rq3uxi | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93",
"label": "Gen",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Ziddletwix | Mn6mWKp0XkAjOs4VndYu | public | contract | 1,718,163,905,990 | manifold-leagues-megamarket-season-b5po2hrchi | Ziddletwix | Manifold Leagues Megamarket: Season 14 (June) | null | null | 207.58664 | YES | h24oz5jt6z | |
0v46u365gn7 | false | hc4sh3ykkad6PwL9ebegn36NWfE3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why is the person who decides how this market resolves, #1 in profit. Conflict of interest?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type":... | Nicole Wilson | 0wlu71Dx7Z9KC5pLSk2d | public | contract | 1,718,164,018,549 | will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to | NicoleWilson | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdmaXSsnh_XMnMVuESEmp27UwzswHPIJ8PHH0q1w4iG=s96-c | Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (2023) | null | null | null | null | null |
ygecf2tpwcb | false | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Something that far out of the Overton window won't be accepted within just a few years, even if it were a faithful simulacrum made using Whole-Brain Em... | singer | xURTJKNKUmYXuIm6vsGX | public | contract | 1,718,164,261,354 | will-any-notable-scientist-or-publi | singer | Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027? | null | 0.40979 | 83.719699 | NO | null | |
2w6c0t9j0ur | false | foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Sounds like free mana then.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | John David Pressman | xURTJKNKUmYXuIm6vsGX | public | contract | 1,718,164,612,595 | will-any-notable-scientist-or-publi | JohnDavidPressman | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c | Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027? | ygecf2tpwcb | 0.40979 | 1,695.577013 | YES | null |
qt02otavvy | false | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Someone eccentric could request this in their will, and their colleagues could tongue-in-cheek go along with it as a sort of memorial to their friend. ... | singer | xURTJKNKUmYXuIm6vsGX | public | contract | 1,718,165,018,911 | will-any-notable-scientist-or-publi | singer | Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027? | ygecf2tpwcb | 0.40979 | 83.719699 | NO | null | |
wqb608vuoml | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "fAsHgJqeXyPJxTvybQdkpyXH3hG2",
"label": "sarius",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | nikki | 964N6z0xol13TZjQinFE | public | contract | 1,718,165,146,215 | who-will-win-the-2024-republican-se | nikki | Who will win the 2024 Republican Senate primary in Nevada? | null | null | 1,034.650216 | YES | e78b0fe6c547 | |
mq49kplleyl | false | foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This doesn't sound like something that would get listed in that authors bibliography, or get published in a major newspaper without qualifications. But... | John David Pressman | xURTJKNKUmYXuIm6vsGX | public | contract | 1,718,165,180,428 | will-any-notable-scientist-or-publi | JohnDavidPressman | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c | Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027? | ygecf2tpwcb | 0.40979 | 1,695.577013 | YES | null |
yj2623z206e | false | foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I would imagine that in any real situation where this happens people would have a diversity of opinions about it. With only a minority convinced it's \... | John David Pressman | xURTJKNKUmYXuIm6vsGX | public | contract | 1,718,165,258,372 | will-any-notable-scientist-or-publi | JohnDavidPressman | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c | Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027? | ygecf2tpwcb | 0.40979 | 1,695.577013 | YES | null |
9gkc8wgs5tr | false | 2yBGlqecngd9lGMIFXnaJfE86nn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Vibes based for the most part ;)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"conte... | Anton Makiievskyi | W1KGdImLB5cb1p75M88e | public | contract | 1,718,165,285,994 | will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai-srb6t2awj1 | mckiev | Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025? | m2x0wjpo6f | 0.75 | 20,630.915668 | YES | null | |
08lw566kf925 | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Edit: whoops wrong market ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | QtpEZTkJYquTjO58Jwvk | public | contract | 1,718,165,384,923 | if-manifold-had-to-pick-one-user-as | Joshua | If Manifold had to pick one user as the Lisan al Gaib who would it be? | null | null | 565.947321 | YES | 3e1c623aa0bc | |
vq9a951hl8 | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Joshua | eJE18rqj1Iu4b4nfiLMf | public | contract | 1,718,165,436,516 | if-manifold-had-to-pick-one-user-as-19eb59668504 | Joshua | If Manifold had to pick one user as the Kwisatz Haderach who would it be? | null | null | 194.758392 | YES | 7e508ea9c9ee | |
4xl62tllxr8 | false | DdNmYsHS8abslE7JkyB9uGR2yI63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "7FapPTAhOfZonLfCWpKPJV65MSH3",
"label": "DanielParris",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | ChameLeon | X8GIaDaToqYkoYs1iHPI | public | contract | 1,718,165,546,262 | will-san-francisco-hit-its-prepande | ChameLeon | Will San Francisco hit its pre-pandemic population levels in 2023 (878.8k people)? | null | 0.02 | 9,841.421331 | NO | null | |
so4fqzhq0r9 | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Alright time for me to find a way to drive TSLA up to sabotage my manifold rivals who were online during this insanity ",
"type": "text"
... | Joshua | xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f | public | contract | 1,718,165,578,171 | will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e | Joshua | Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8? | null | 0.35 | 5,608.694153 | NO | null | |
e5t4892samd | false | nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "No need, Have faith in me. I am the Masiah.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | TSLABull | xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f | public | contract | 1,718,165,624,934 | will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e | MolbyDick | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXY86BCu6RTvqG8yEFc5Y7D_S97tCf20jO2Z8tVPKaaUqG14DA9PLqiLMFEeMfNIZqYYE4tIzI_BrVccd4GjslXsd5xpRxNHEYntNGm2gIyorhNQXCFWaGveqVbopCKtvW8Hxom_b74OxRgIK95auugOa5P56HIijcmp8zUBmze5fHo3g0ex4yJjnK3v7cvgEOF25_-TG4N8zJWXs8h_RcZDoDOKDs__GbJIprrIRmH0xBPqyMPjM6JiRSy1sfS72DHbE53wywXJmkbjC8pw3F... | Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8? | so4fqzhq0r9 | 0.35 | 2,419,308.217231 | YES | null |
ltlklh0drbr | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Plus was deliberate ftr",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null... | Joshua | HHz6ugnOf3H9F2CLm5gN | public | contract | 1,718,165,883,320 | who-will-win-masters-league-season-5x9hpf99ai | Joshua | Who will win Masters League Season 14 (June)? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ntyt469khsl | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Nikki so fast ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | HHz6ugnOf3H9F2CLm5gN | public | contract | 1,718,165,931,610 | who-will-win-masters-league-season-5x9hpf99ai | Joshua | Who will win Masters League Season 14 (June)? | ltlklh0drbr | null | null | null | null | |
lxwdc176rk | false | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | SirCryptomind | xbYMOZLIX767oBphaPwv | public | contract | 1,718,165,945,785 | what-event-will-happen-first-jimmy | SirCryptomind | What Event Will Happen First: Jimmy Carter Passes OR A Lasting Bilateral Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? [Unlinked Market] | null | null | null | null | null | |
up0xqukg29 | false | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | SirCryptomind | kRfLb8IiBLpzWcCkEtwV | public | contract | 1,718,165,954,348 | what-event-will-happen-first-israel-c0b73f487f8d | SirCryptomind | What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Jimmy Carter Passes, Biden Re-elected | null | null | null | null | null | |
bvws4dp4dhb | false | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | SirCryptomind | QXBUUMEkqYQEvhVps8zo | public | contract | 1,718,166,038,295 | will-jimmy-carter-live-to-see-trump-0f0663aaf0f3 | SirCryptomind | Will Jimmy Carter live to see Trump debate Biden? | null | 0.782228 | 379.129847 | NO | null | |
e15gxr312ef | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Funny you should say that today ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": n... | Joshua | xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f | public | contract | 1,718,166,060,498 | will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e | Joshua | Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8? | so4fqzhq0r9 | 0.35 | 5,608.694153 | NO | null | |
3y3btsazin5 | false | h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Lucky you, having friends! But yes, that's also good. Genuine smiles are superior. The best thing is having a friend who is an amateur photographer. ",... | Benjamin Ikuta | qi6H5uRFpxRRpWceWlhw | public | contract | 1,718,166,098,909 | will-i-have-a-girlfriend-in-2024 | benjaminIkuta | Will I have a girlfriend in 2024? | 75bo9h2g5z3 | null | null | null | null | |
ugolfopm0j | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133",
"label": "jim",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Joshua | HHz6ugnOf3H9F2CLm5gN | public | contract | 1,718,166,120,495 | who-will-win-masters-league-season-5x9hpf99ai | Joshua | Who will win Masters League Season 14 (June)? | null | null | null | null | null | |
vprxi2449oq | false | nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "create a new one hahaha",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | TSLABull | xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f | public | contract | 1,718,166,199,491 | will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e | MolbyDick | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXY86BCu6RTvqG8yEFc5Y7D_S97tCf20jO2Z8tVPKaaUqG14DA9PLqiLMFEeMfNIZqYYE4tIzI_BrVccd4GjslXsd5xpRxNHEYntNGm2gIyorhNQXCFWaGveqVbopCKtvW8Hxom_b74OxRgIK95auugOa5P56HIijcmp8zUBmze5fHo3g0ex4yJjnK3v7cvgEOF25_-TG4N8zJWXs8h_RcZDoDOKDs__GbJIprrIRmH0xBPqyMPjM6JiRSy1sfS72DHbE53wywXJmkbjC8pw3F... | Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8? | so4fqzhq0r9 | 0.349838 | 2,419,308.217231 | YES | null |
t2bgxofyq4 | false | foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "One plausible timeline for how this question could get a YES resolution:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
... | John David Pressman | xURTJKNKUmYXuIm6vsGX | public | contract | 1,718,166,297,015 | will-any-notable-scientist-or-publi | JohnDavidPressman | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c | Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027? | ygecf2tpwcb | 0.398224 | 1,695.577013 | YES | null |
tz46j8anokm | false | 8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The second market was live for basically the entire time between when reference checks started and when I received an offer. It looks like that was abo... | Anton Paquin | 9zfBY6pffO8XmqaqrGiC | public | contract | 1,718,166,431,827 | where-will-i-end-up-working | citrinitas | Where will I end up working? | 0h5ERqGKYOB7AvjEd5YE | null | 100 | YES | d6e96eeb8f59 | |
aqm7lbfwpcw | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1",
"label": "DanMan314",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"... | Joshua | HHz6ugnOf3H9F2CLm5gN | public | contract | 1,718,166,695,094 | who-will-win-masters-league-season-5x9hpf99ai | Joshua | Who will win Masters League Season 14 (June)? | null | null | null | null | null | |
x3n71irtu6c | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "wow this is a ridiculous resolition. OpenAI doesn't win for him dropping the suit. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragr... | stefanie | UrNXlZo4cOVknLkrvng5 | public | contract | 1,718,166,728,904 | what-will-happen-with-elon-musks-la | shankypanky | What will happen with Elon Musk's lawsuit against Open AI for allegedly violating their non-profit mission? | 7g2oy06h1we | null | 7,334.902856 | YES | 8a60899e9926 | |
mwg5vox199 | false | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Wow. Charity pls!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Undox | 9zfBY6pffO8XmqaqrGiC | public | contract | 1,718,166,855,683 | where-will-i-end-up-working | Undox | Where will I end up working? | W8EJJ0k4mBVRXuSIFGqF | null | null | null | null | |
8k0o5qyaxbk | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "mana > cringe ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"cont... | Ziddletwix | HHz6ugnOf3H9F2CLm5gN | public | contract | 1,718,167,001,129 | who-will-win-masters-league-season-5x9hpf99ai | Ziddletwix | Who will win Masters League Season 14 (June)? | aqm7lbfwpcw | null | 1,585.776741 | NO | ej7qmw8lvs | |
tix76y14cvc | false | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "There's absolutely no way I'm winning this month I'm going to my wedding and honeymoon next week lmao",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | Dan | HHz6ugnOf3H9F2CLm5gN | public | contract | 1,718,167,004,352 | who-will-win-masters-league-season-5x9hpf99ai | DanMan314 | Who will win Masters League Season 14 (June)? | aqm7lbfwpcw | null | 281.271779 | YES | zq4qklyu38 | |
qs2jzms4ul | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Danman wedding/honeymoon prop bets?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | HHz6ugnOf3H9F2CLm5gN | public | contract | 1,718,167,025,142 | who-will-win-masters-league-season-5x9hpf99ai | Joshua | Who will win Masters League Season 14 (June)? | aqm7lbfwpcw | null | null | null | null | |
01aqe9prqk4y | false | iS0qXutlPscd6K4nZMWilWb6SMG2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This was an entirely predictable result guys",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Celene | QtpEZTkJYquTjO58Jwvk | public | contract | 1,718,167,115,685 | if-manifold-had-to-pick-one-user-as | Celene | If Manifold had to pick one user as the Lisan al Gaib who would it be? | null | null | 202.053102 | YES | 2c52e9ab159a | |
os2ehjyd2h | false | foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Another way in which a YES resolution could be reached is if similar to the above happens and a minority of partisans begin to consider the gestalt sys... | John David Pressman | xURTJKNKUmYXuIm6vsGX | public | contract | 1,718,167,175,245 | will-any-notable-scientist-or-publi | JohnDavidPressman | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c | Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027? | ygecf2tpwcb | 0.398224 | 1,695.577013 | YES | null |
uyws8heys9q | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": "",
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"lan... | chris (strutheo) | 1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM | public | contract | 1,718,167,269,751 | will-jimmy-carter-become-a-centenar | strutheo | Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian? | null | null | null | null | null | |
uo0qnt895tl | false | foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Obviously as you say it's unlikely for the norms to just totally change overnight (though I distinctly remember that in pre-GPT media it was considered... | John David Pressman | xURTJKNKUmYXuIm6vsGX | public | contract | 1,718,167,698,061 | will-any-notable-scientist-or-publi | JohnDavidPressman | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c | Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027? | ygecf2tpwcb | 0.398224 | 1,695.577013 | YES | null |
558n54w8stq | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Rough guesswork using 2016 as a nearby analog (assuming start of La Niña at latest by August and being neutral now relative to the El Nino start year) ... | JRP | CBouu2SgGvrCmcuCiKfg | public | contract | 1,718,167,866,877 | will-any-month-in-2024-have-the-hig | parhizj | Will any month in 2024 have the highest temperature anomaly on record? | null | 0.395972 | 599.855945 | NO | null | |
84eutdnhv08 | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Adding dark horses ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23",
... | Joshua | HHz6ugnOf3H9F2CLm5gN | public | contract | 1,718,167,890,735 | who-will-win-masters-league-season-5x9hpf99ai | Joshua | Who will win Masters League Season 14 (June)? | null | null | 1,588.759353 | YES | ej7qmw8lvs | |
12iy5drcrxh | false | OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "By \"single forward pass,\" do you just mean it can't do any chain-of-thought before beginning its answer? I would expect that there would be one forwa... | Caleb Biddulph | uyCcw5fmUYcW3WAyddHZ | public | contract | 1,718,168,294,361 | will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai-t2or6lg54g | CDBiddulph | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfnooldvqsfyLB7ZRjdJceJURCVsUcLn8Ir7VvJneRY2A=s96-c | Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM? | null | null | null | null | null |
bnj6lq1g1oa | false | OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It has to be available for public use, not just announced, right?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
... | Caleb Biddulph | 4eGgMuHreVtlL2n240qE | public | contract | 1,718,168,568,703 | will-openai-make-a-product-that-all | CDBiddulph | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfnooldvqsfyLB7ZRjdJceJURCVsUcLn8Ir7VvJneRY2A=s96-c | Will OpenAI make a product that allows for direct control of your computer before 2025? | null | null | null | null | null |
2arxu22sgkg | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23",
"label": "jack",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Joshua | HHz6ugnOf3H9F2CLm5gN | public | contract | 1,718,168,686,798 | who-will-win-masters-league-season-5x9hpf99ai | Joshua | Who will win Masters League Season 14 (June)? | null | null | null | null | null | |
v0grm3it4ki | false | u7azXhVxcNPicVLY3CCPCq4GFvi1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "i think sometimes it can be awkward, but if you’re ever with a group of friends having a nice time a quick “let’s take a picture!” can go a long way",
... | devika | qi6H5uRFpxRRpWceWlhw | public | contract | 1,718,168,777,613 | will-i-have-a-girlfriend-in-2024 | devika | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ9zYB5Vh2rCzbeeA1pn0OMoZ-tQCBOCexfmAogaJuv=s96-c | Will I have a girlfriend in 2024? | 75bo9h2g5z3 | 0.343493 | 114.61703 | YES | null |
pbjhkn6fm5r | false | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Eliza | BetSXeRHXok6VdfPtkp8 | public | contract | 1,718,168,814,920 | will-spacexs-starship-superheavy-la | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030? | KfkYf0tAJcI1XAL1wq4m | 0.23142 | 582.877452 | NO | null |
gueayugu8od | false | wB4jFQ7f3JeC7kfeeGBSfKbegXS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | T P | C67BlQP5Jj2ljKalnRZW | public | contract | 1,718,168,970,271 | will-tesla-begin-using-optimus-tesl | TP8ac2 | Will Tesla begin using Optimus Tesla Bots to produce electric vehicles before January 1, 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
551skrdinvl | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I heard one non-speaker think that Jimmy was dead. that's all though",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],... | nikki | dS9H64FZAMmOAj8j5wBH | public | contract | 1,718,169,029,435 | will-a-speaker-at-manifest-incorrec | nikki | Will a speaker at Manifest incorrectly declare that Jimmy Carter has died? | null | 0.120677 | 1,623.365081 | NO | null | |
nmer7dqowli | false | DsMiQTKKm3diNnb8m3rVoIc0HC72 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Correct. Can be semi-limited beta or paid only",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Gabe Garboden | 4eGgMuHreVtlL2n240qE | public | contract | 1,718,169,060,306 | will-openai-make-a-product-that-all | GabeGarboden | Will OpenAI make a product that allows for direct control of your computer before 2025? | bnj6lq1g1oa | 0.373054 | 284.432921 | YES | null | |
j9cf9ajzkm | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Good market lmao ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | bmnXOigFg9yFyz4xvdWM | public | contract | 1,718,169,261,220 | which-ai-persona-will-win-the-miss | Ziddletwix | Which AI persona will win the "Miss AI" competition? | lqlja3bsofk | null | null | null | null | |
49kzrlg5vcx | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | chris (strutheo) | zl5VJ9CmA9YPiZTcQCIq | public | contract | 1,718,169,370,620 | will-there-be-another-pandemic-in-t | strutheo | Will there be another pandemic in the USA that results in mask mandates on public transit by the end of 2030? | null | null | null | null | null | |
pwxhxo2q67j | false | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2",
"label": "Predictor",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"... | Charlie | Q9AYUdH1Reuj9FpbEwvr | public | contract | 1,718,169,827,662 | will-gregg-berhalter-be-coach-of-th | Charlie | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | Will Gregg Berhalter be coach of the US Men's National Soccer Team for the 2026 World Cup? | v7t3tamf0tc | 0.566481 | 57.765271 | YES | null |
56psyiq4fpf | false | h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "We did it. I'm a bit hesitant, but she did have me promise I wouldn't be a player lose interest in her after sex. ",
"type": "text"
}... | Benjamin Ikuta | ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl | public | contract | 1,718,169,953,914 | will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c | benjaminIkuta | Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024? | ouyno8q5kx | null | null | null | null | |
13nyqaq7au8 | false | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think the description can use some more clarity about what 'completion' means. Some authors announce completion of a first draft. Others announce com... | Eliza | VRNwSNHginYIW1H8EUBn | public | contract | 1,718,170,015,651 | will-george-r-r-martin-or-his-publi | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | Will George R. R. Martin or his publisher announce the completion of Winds of Winter before September 2024? | null | 0.3 | 178.076964 | NO | null |
u57eghjiel9 | false | ZLXN9v9SHRdhtflzy0clMAb419M2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yes, I will resolve based on the next Bundestag election.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": ... | Kiudee | T6rN8CL5Zrf7b7HvpD3M | public | contract | 1,718,170,200,978 | will-volt-be-elected-into-the-next | kiudee | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLpAlqI7VYParAwlJSRbnbvlFS51l8h8NBliwuHiasXJRw1=s96-c | Will Volt be elected into the next Bundestag (2025)? | qsvbj88kaw | null | null | null | null |
3ov8as58aga | false | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "And now, onto the topic of why I bought No.....",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": nul... | Eliza | VRNwSNHginYIW1H8EUBn | public | contract | 1,718,170,247,220 | will-george-r-r-martin-or-his-publi | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | Will George R. R. Martin or his publisher announce the completion of Winds of Winter before September 2024? | null | 0.3 | 178.076964 | NO | null |
q7k6nsu047g | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What is it? 😯",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | q6mm0yTTdTZBX42jw9gX | public | contract | 1,718,170,330,397 | what-will-be-the-single-most-impres-958fb5fad966 | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | What will be the single most impressive item that I witness at Less Online & Manifest? | efqailpidwq | null | 90.724258 | YES | 1a4effca6ce7 |
59h2kn0xt56 | false | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2",
"label": "Gabrielle",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"... | Eliza | F4jmVjJUWxRC3aZ9VRkJ | public | contract | 1,718,170,347,551 | how-many-parameters-will-gpt4-have | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | How many parameters will GPT-4 have? | 3sa5onprhln | null | null | null | null |
5seuyhl92sw | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "people voting NO on anne because they're scared of a high powered independent AI woman tbh ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type":... | chris (strutheo) | bmnXOigFg9yFyz4xvdWM | public | contract | 1,718,170,391,501 | which-ai-persona-will-win-the-miss | strutheo | Which AI persona will win the "Miss AI" competition? | null | null | null | null | null | |
hm0xgdipv6i | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think if loans were only paid out for, e.g., long-term markets, that would still count. It would preserve the main effect that loans had in the past,... | Plasma Ballin' | ToomlQ4HriW9QlDUaV3v | public | contract | 1,718,170,533,020 | which-changes-made-in-the-pivot-wil | PlasmaBallin | Which changes made in the pivot will be reversed before the end of 2024? | dr4ttzcazbg | null | 32.24169 | NO | 9d5078b8b0ed | |
bl7g8cm7ir8 | false | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2",
"label": "ian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Eliza | 7vK0QcRqy6mGq7UEtfJe | public | contract | 1,718,170,710,124 | will-filtering-trades-and-comments | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | Will filtering trades and comments by answer improve the experience of users on multiple choice questions? | null | 0.752797 | 43.22237 | YES | null |
ocpkfqo6n0m | false | dNDRBKODs0SA7nmcHz9IHJCcNLz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think a failed rebrand looks like all of us still calling it Twitter.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
... | 8hqw | 6HalCyviY0yeTC7FQMve | public | contract | 1,718,170,812,791 | will-the-x-rebrand-of-twitter-ultim | 2texci6 | Will the "X" rebrand of Twitter ultimately fail? | RyLed8l6zJwVU1KUnUeR | null | null | null | null | |
ajmnb9c5yt9 | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2",
"label": "mongo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | 7A4eJaKpv95A06ZrHqRR | public | contract | 1,718,170,833,288 | would-you-support-an-ip-ceasefire-i | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Would you support an I/P ceasefire if Hamas was restored control over Gaza and all hostages were returned | y7htl8z46jb | null | null | null | null |
1i16cjbvwdd | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How did we not predict that ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
... | Plasma Ballin' | QtpEZTkJYquTjO58Jwvk | public | contract | 1,718,170,877,893 | if-manifold-had-to-pick-one-user-as | PlasmaBallin | If Manifold had to pick one user as the Lisan al Gaib who would it be? | 01aqe9prqk4y | null | 55.927346 | YES | 0eca26d25e96 | |
en1rsq0a5tw | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2",
"label": "mongo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | 7A4eJaKpv95A06ZrHqRR | public | contract | 1,718,170,980,305 | would-you-support-an-ip-ceasefire-i | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Would you support an I/P ceasefire if Hamas was restored control over Gaza and all hostages were returned | y7htl8z46jb | null | null | null | null |
0ba4uup958wo | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Are you measuring the count just from 2024, or also including previous years?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | Timothy Johnson | fql8JHxJXKRYjHX972Rn | public | contract | 1,718,171,085,885 | when-will-the-us-h5n1-human-case-co | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | When will the US H5N1 human case count surpass 100? | null | null | null | null | null |
toryqv5bpa8 | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Still almost no symptoms.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonathan Ray | cCKe5crr6hlARaVQvGtl | public | contract | 1,718,171,180,009 | will-my-followup-covid-test-be-posi | JonathanRay | Will my follow-up covid test be positive? | null | null | null | null | null | |
tpfbbsyopoo | false | dNDRBKODs0SA7nmcHz9IHJCcNLz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You’re going to be so disappointed to learn I’m no longer in a position to tell. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragrap... | 8hqw | 8sBbblQ7PJBJasGhJQJa | public | contract | 1,718,171,209,152 | magill-tard-fight-what-proportion-o | 2texci6 | Magill Tard Fight: What proportion of new gc members will actually participate (say something even once)? | nl7ir9g0vi8 | null | null | null | null | |
hj643fm5g56 | false | WKKdTCqHduaNtJN6rUYpPKXwK8U2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You'd better resolve this honestly 😁",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Iason Koukas | xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f | public | contract | 1,718,171,458,238 | will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e | IasonKoukas | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJIJyDLPEuPXNOzTrfsptZ48FfaLCZm5IfcjrS0XnYKx8=s96-c | Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8? | null | 0.341199 | 9,135.369326 | NO | null |
kv2nkssj4p | false | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This is a pretty objective question so manifold isn't going to let it resolve wrong",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragr... | jackson polack | xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f | public | contract | 1,718,171,502,539 | will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e | jacksonpolack | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8? | hj643fm5g56 | 0.341199 | 184,577.483396 | NO | null |
ovddr5icg6f | false | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yes would overturn precedent in the Boise case. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Niko | FVztDTrOy3BSetTT9PH6 | public | contract | 1,718,171,627,105 | will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favo-zer2ti2zv4 | Moscow25 | Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Grants Pass, overturning precedent, in regards to homeless encampments? | 0w111mivmmze | 0.736459 | 567.550848 | YES | null | |
4x8o33uudma | false | 2DUMvA9R6nNXjQfyidwhKJitKBr2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I made a commitment to someone for July 18. I'll shoot for publishing on July 4th.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragra... | Noa Nabeshima | Z5tJBDZuv1y02UgfAqVx | public | contract | 1,718,171,639,133 | by-when-will-i-publish-my-recent-me | NoaNabeshima | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGG2fLz1xZY60s5Zky2ne9wKGcZ1kXwE36DRdoyA=s96-c | By when will I publish my recent mech interp work? | null | null | 367.804186 | YES | xemydoippy |
pb3j3wn223p | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I thought the metastatic melanoma was cured 7 years ago. Is there any confirmation that it’s back? Or that he currently has any other cancer?",
... | Jonathan Ray | 1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM | public | contract | 1,718,171,680,691 | will-jimmy-carter-become-a-centenar | JonathanRay | Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian? | null | 0.431383 | 2,574.728643 | YES | null | |
hwi360idqfw | false | G3LhSYHrymapMN91FqCFhteTKqQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "RIP dude 🤪",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | GM | xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f | public | contract | 1,718,172,034,890 | will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e | GtothaM | Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8? | null | null | null | null | null | |
uixvama5o9q | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Good point, I wasn't even considering optics motivations ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": ... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | 5M2I0YYBYCstkwDI3yDK | public | contract | 1,718,172,048,702 | will-openai-pay-scientific-publishe | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025? | 0bnsb2iippwk | 0.679004 | 38.293297 | NO | null |
ereect4qdfs | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": nu... | chris (strutheo) | RQhbpTeCtvEFeYQxuxmu | public | contract | 1,718,172,137,132 | will-hasan-piker-hasanabi-have-an-a | strutheo | Will Hasan Piker / HasanAbi have an average Twitch viewership of 20,000 or less at the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
t15epxsh13 | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "🥹🧡",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | AxgMuyFkQEyZPOIrVH40 | public | contract | 1,718,172,183,729 | are-you-worthy-of-love | shankypanky | Are you worthy of love? | null | null | null | null | null | |
d272gjc91q | false | yAPO0lFCr0VYiIosymUdZgbTxnC2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "2024-06-11: 1756, again a bit hungry.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | phaen | nuB4dFSb3poVQn7SZG7I | public | contract | 1,718,172,222,180 | will-i-eat-under-1800-calories-each | phaen | Will I eat under 1800 Calories each day this week (through 2024-06-14)? | null | 0.748778 | 118.504711 | YES | null | |
evzaf68za89 | false | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You can ask a mod to resolve N/A if it's impossible for you to resolve the market",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragrap... | Savior of Plant | 8sBbblQ7PJBJasGhJQJa | public | contract | 1,718,172,246,298 | magill-tard-fight-what-proportion-o | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | Magill Tard Fight: What proportion of new gc members will actually participate (say something even once)? | nl7ir9g0vi8 | null | 3,061.102083 | NO | ncyzfauf52 |
92bktlrocfg | false | dNDRBKODs0SA7nmcHz9IHJCcNLz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is there a way for me to cover the opportunity cost of people locking up mana in my dud market? Do I gift you mana now? ",
"type": "text"
... | 8hqw | 8sBbblQ7PJBJasGhJQJa | public | contract | 1,718,172,303,638 | magill-tard-fight-what-proportion-o | 2texci6 | Magill Tard Fight: What proportion of new gc members will actually participate (say something even once)? | nl7ir9g0vi8 | null | null | null | null | |
wntxabk49vg | false | 9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Gavin Newsom up to 8% on polymarket.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Fedor | QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ | public | contract | 1,718,172,348,905 | who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38 | Fedor | Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? | null | null | 4,933.487374 | YES | 74d0a1d62039 | |
7z82t73qryq | false | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I mean I will take free money, but this kind of thing happens",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"conte... | Savior of Plant | 8sBbblQ7PJBJasGhJQJa | public | contract | 1,718,172,397,219 | magill-tard-fight-what-proportion-o | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | Magill Tard Fight: What proportion of new gc members will actually participate (say something even once)? | nl7ir9g0vi8 | null | 3,061.102083 | NO | ncyzfauf52 |
4pj6b4gcvxn | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "this one was a bit harder but not because (as another comment mentions) of any conflation between humane love and romantic love.",
"type": "t... | stefanie | 557MHVn7peHh3WClMVhk | public | contract | 1,718,172,529,236 | do-you-love-everybody-you-know | shankypanky | do you love everybody you know? | null | null | null | null | null | |
5kg7b02sxjj | false | ZNbZqVJ7rJUmjzymhIgtfMc6JJQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "sorta feels like a different question? like, imagine we just slow down the progression of the disease to 5 years but then you're doomed anyway. i would... | Vadim | i8FvPCWmkCakdZ1VWPJs | public | contract | 1,718,172,894,570 | will-at-least-one-human-be-cured-of | wadimiusz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu30gaq8rWjmpzfVLcGMCtPvX9oYTxN3NWEN6SJ4=s96-c | Will at least one human be cured of a prion disease by EOY 2045? | r0nqnbfe2v9 | null | null | null | null |
4le05ca1sk6 | false | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Simon Grayson | gGuTF3C0b0a7QDFeAsU5 | public | contract | 1,718,172,895,516 | will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-f533bbe7f374 | SimonGrayson | Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 12th June show positive growth? | null | 0.744154 | 3,132.309972 | NO | null | |
rcpwh9iu6z | false | NOwmwNXwwEPeMSyRv7Jby3Ry2Qs1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hc4sh3ykkad6PwL9ebegn36NWfE3",
"label": "NicoleWilson",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | Benjamin Cosman | 0wlu71Dx7Z9KC5pLSk2d | public | contract | 1,718,173,211,571 | will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to | BenjaminCosman | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpw00X8vUChExgzazukv9rP3dnjhsvxGTntPujSNQ=s96-c | Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (2023) | 0v46u365gn7 | 0.5 | 14,155.6296 | NO | null |
xjncsqyi9k | false | dNDRBKODs0SA7nmcHz9IHJCcNLz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ">The session does not feel lame or derivative.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
... | 8hqw | JoFZRX9HrTXpqSdHgSG5 | public | contract | 1,718,173,375,449 | will-gpt5-be-able-to-gm-a-session-o | 2texci6 | Will GPT-5 be able to GM a session of my custom TTRPG to my satisfaction? | null | 0.265647 | 348.784647 | NO | null | |
a0mxl8zgqwa | false | ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Mega necro-reply here but I don't think this argument works. The 2 most convincing counterarguments I've heard to this point are",
"type": "t... | Stark | P02kEpHYkmiynJHc14f6 | public | contract | 1,718,173,475,396 | does-a-perfect-god-exist-all-good-a | StarkLN | Does a perfect God exist? (All good, all powerful, all knowing) | ScyPZOTb1e21ydj2o8Vn | null | null | null | null | |
libup1erht9 | false | ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The coin is technically not random but that's not the point",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type"... | Stark | P02kEpHYkmiynJHc14f6 | public | contract | 1,718,173,533,214 | does-a-perfect-god-exist-all-good-a | StarkLN | Does a perfect God exist? (All good, all powerful, all knowing) | ScyPZOTb1e21ydj2o8Vn | null | null | null | null | |
8k2ilzb5w85 | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Nominative determinism tag gang",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | 9vNxYQe20qLYVWIeg36U | public | contract | 1,718,173,536,244 | will-vibecamp-be-viebcamp | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will Vibecamp be Viebcamp? | null | null | null | null | null |
yzlhno2i09 | false | ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "All the definitions here are a little weird imo",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Stark | P02kEpHYkmiynJHc14f6 | public | contract | 1,718,173,645,441 | does-a-perfect-god-exist-all-good-a | StarkLN | Does a perfect God exist? (All good, all powerful, all knowing) | 40bwqtp5sbd | null | null | null | null | |
ek3vxiccy9 | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Please please please keep them, the other tiers are so expensive I wouldn't be able to afford to make regular questions",
"type": "text"
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | EXlcjbkYGFFs0gMlzdwm | public | contract | 1,718,173,811,848 | should-we-eliminate-play-markets | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Should we eliminate "Play" markets? | null | null | null | null | null |
p1kh8jok1j | false | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "i'll get to this soon sorry.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jackson polack | 8OEGieDdD0endTxff78m | public | contract | 1,718,173,851,092 | is-ozempic-an-effective-antiaddicti | jacksonpolack | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | Is Ozempic an effective anti-addiction drug? (My credence in a year) | null | null | null | null | null |
veyzgny2ek | false | 6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How do the leaderboards correspond to the profit numbers/graphs on people's profiles?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "para... | James Baker | uTHIQdCbQomqXIDmvy7a | public | contract | 1,718,173,923,733 | who-will-be-the-first-user-to-reach | JamesBaker3 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c | Who will be the first user to reach 10M mana in profit? | null | null | null | null | null |
vb7g56d0rc | false | 2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think, as a general rule, it should not be considered good practice for mods who are participating in markets to \"take them over\" from inactive cre... | Josh Wilkes | BetSXeRHXok6VdfPtkp8 | public | contract | 1,718,173,990,296 | will-spacexs-starship-superheavy-la | JoshuaWilkes | Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030? | KfkYf0tAJcI1XAL1wq4m | 0.237376 | 50.938495 | NO | null | |
i4shwcqxy2 | false | 6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is \"This is Round 1. If \"Stop Playing\" is selected, the market will resolve to \"Lose\"\" a special exemption to the even/odd rule, or a mistake?",
... | James Baker | jFDF1M2inrP2SmTkAYB9 | public | contract | 1,718,174,279,909 | lets-play-will-this-game-last-an-ev | JamesBaker3 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c | [Let's Play] Will this game last an even number of rounds? (Round 1) | null | null | null | null | null |
6e8wltqan3w | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "🫂 critical support to bro, I know that feeling, you'll feel like shit at first, but sooner than you think it'll pass and you'll be feeling better",
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | myIsMoHMLg4FRNYuquXv | public | contract | 1,718,174,345,285 | will-i-go-on-a-third-date-with-j | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will I go on a third date with J****? | null | 0.436947 | 34.97579 | NO | null |
3dp5x4fft1o | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | nikki | yICG9wEfnAf8vLqJKwIb | public | contract | 1,718,174,407,306 | will-there-be-a-3rd-manifest-confer | nikki | Will there be another Manifest conference held in 2025? | null | 0.863933 | 6.277872 | YES | null | |
wab7y984scj | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | chris (strutheo) | bmnXOigFg9yFyz4xvdWM | public | contract | 1,718,174,546,798 | which-ai-persona-will-win-the-miss | strutheo | Which AI persona will win the "Miss AI" competition? | null | null | null | null | null | |
qf388vau0qd | false | EuQg1exJRAXr4Z6WT2CdR1YvPZC3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This is basically a proxy question for the following two questions:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
... | Goatherder | FKQHvVxMsZSlikadnMLH | public | contract | 1,718,174,547,624 | will-julian-assange-return-to-austr | goatwrangler | Will Julian Assange return to Australia before 2026? | null | 0.529038 | 324.071096 | YES | null | |
wrt4w5erq3 | false | oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If something happens so that the Russian government totally surrenders and has a temporary government installed by the US or another nation before hold... | mongo | T0gT9UrhluUO9f8tGXS2 | public | contract | 1,718,174,579,276 | will-russia-lose-control-of-at-leas | mongo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I_X--wyVrh_ZPix4FSV8YMpbXtxCdMU-qkPeUUA=s96-c | Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030? | null | null | null | null | null |
h5wrqltx7gd | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "curious why so many think seren? are people actually trying them out ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
]... | chris (strutheo) | bmnXOigFg9yFyz4xvdWM | public | contract | 1,718,174,591,923 | which-ai-persona-will-win-the-miss | strutheo | Which AI persona will win the "Miss AI" competition? | null | null | null | null | null | |
881ekd2lkps | false | dNDRBKODs0SA7nmcHz9IHJCcNLz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "El Niño mit uns",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | 8hqw | 8WvobuEpJHRMvpCzcPK0 | public | contract | 1,718,174,643,105 | will-june-2024-be-the-hottest-june | 2texci6 | Will June 2024 be the hottest June on record? | null | 0.905065 | 1,644.831244 | YES | null | |
ji2exmnmvz | false | Wj9qhjGbhzXyA0JVlEnU3FwAiUw2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Even w/o considering sampling bias, the article also states that most DDoS attempts don’t succeed, which per the resolution criteria would be very unli... | Sophia Xu | 2tyVmLcCsbJeOgSX4dJL | public | contract | 1,718,174,738,386 | will-manifold-be-subject-to-a-ddos | SophiaXu | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYIZxhU8epOmpotTu4bIVGUO1SbDd6jYKmM8PRa8JQ=s96-c | Will Manifold be subject to a DDoS attack before the end of 2025? | wz04zdnsjbk | 0.775181 | 94.465832 | YES | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.