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... | jcb | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,718,207,552,222 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | jcb | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | 8tpr4p456wc | null | 76.902097 | NO | k49s9dxh78 | |
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... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | VBqLSfQJQJJIDcqQE2cp | public | contract | 1,718,207,677,964 | will-i-have-a-girlfriend-before-i-t | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will I have a girlfriend before I turn 35, and if so how will we meet? | zq64wli3r0s | null | null | null | null |
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1taid5y0tjw | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
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} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | 6NuccZl5usFBdfaq1HCx | public | contract | 1,718,208,060,382 | will-goody2-say-rationalussy-before | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will GOODY-2 say "rationalussy" before Jimmy Carter's funeral? | k5cgt95cer | null | null | null | null |
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"cont... | Earl Kelly | gKy8PAj9g8xG2ofY3MYw | public | contract | 1,718,208,427,225 | offical-market-for-t20-world-cup-ma | EarlKelly | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYce6r9qcA6KpyiKEz3Co6Vx_SzjlJr3gV8HLI3=s96-c | Offical market for T20 Cricket World cup matches 2024 | 8turm11oyl7 | null | 4,898.036035 | YES | 34tbbcd35t |
akgharg6cz8 | false | 4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2 | {
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"text": "This is a beauty pageant for AI-generated images? o_O",
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"attrs... | Snarflak | bmnXOigFg9yFyz4xvdWM | public | contract | 1,718,208,655,746 | which-ai-persona-will-win-the-miss | Snarflak | Which AI persona will win the "Miss AI" competition? | null | null | null | null | null | |
elj0mmn5q4r | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
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{
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} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | WqtMcd6SFw0UajEZBLUw | public | contract | 1,718,208,739,587 | edit-the-description-of-this-market | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Edit the description of this market | null | null | null | null | null |
1b1vet7gvmu | false | VTbvGNq8spM2EDZCug7Ox2kvEyu1 | {
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"text": "This resolves when the grand prize is awarded or the competition is shut down. To be clear, the market does not necessarily resolve NO if the grand pri... | Tossup | uyCcw5fmUYcW3WAyddHZ | public | contract | 1,718,208,815,190 | will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai-t2or6lg54g | Tossup | Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM? | yv0cgobvclh | null | null | null | null | |
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"text": "i'm sure this is obvious to people in such circles but link to the exact levels? (fat man, organs, full utilitarianism). i can basically guess the gist... | Ziddletwix | GHO3XXnvjyjsh5blyifc | public | contract | 1,718,208,859,787 | toddler-trolley-problem-where-does | Ziddletwix | Toddler Trolley Problem: Where does my son draw the line? | null | null | 123.082934 | YES | ilvvxpb5ho | |
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"text": "yay for another toddler market!! 🚂 ",
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} | stefanie | GHO3XXnvjyjsh5blyifc | public | contract | 1,718,208,875,195 | toddler-trolley-problem-where-does | shankypanky | Toddler Trolley Problem: Where does my son draw the line? | null | null | 60.10263 | YES | j2zshiod3o | |
tn203gflv9a | false | VTbvGNq8spM2EDZCug7Ox2kvEyu1 | {
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hnwj4u41yf4 | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
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"text": "as this is a dependent market, i assume the levels occur in order, and if e.g. toddler does not pull the lever, then there is no level 2?",
"... | Ziddletwix | GHO3XXnvjyjsh5blyifc | public | contract | 1,718,208,933,092 | toddler-trolley-problem-where-does | Ziddletwix | Toddler Trolley Problem: Where does my son draw the line? | null | null | 123.082934 | YES | ilvvxpb5ho | |
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]... | Earl Kelly | gKy8PAj9g8xG2ofY3MYw | public | contract | 1,718,209,046,951 | offical-market-for-t20-world-cup-ma | EarlKelly | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYce6r9qcA6KpyiKEz3Co6Vx_SzjlJr3gV8HLI3=s96-c | Offical market for T20 Cricket World cup matches 2024 | 8turm11oyl7 | null | 4,898.036035 | YES | 34tbbcd35t |
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"text": "Minor: I recommend using “M$”, or directly copying the unicode “Ṁ” to denote mana. “$1000M” is naturally interpreted as 1000 million dollars.",
... | Jess Riedel | GH7aO7gw52UlLvPtMbnO | public | contract | 1,718,209,215,473 | neural-nets-will-generate-coherent-fcc6dd1407c8 | JessRiedel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c | Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market, $1000M subsidy) | null | null | null | null | null |
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... | Timothy Johnson | xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f | public | contract | 1,718,209,251,209 | will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8? | null | 0.27 | 3,606.472115 | NO | null |
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world cup 2024 | null | null | null | null | null |
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} | Conflux | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,718,209,480,667 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | Conflux | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 5ki3wekpv17 | null | 20,199.308178 | YES | 33b8f3dc81b9 | |
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"type": "para... | jskf | RYV99BeSPUNBvIOdwRRR | public | contract | 1,718,209,635,048 | if-i-host-an-inviteonly-preparty-at | jskf | If I host an invite-only pre-party at Manifest (2025), what metrics will I use to vet invitees? | bao60ggtdeu | null | 26.280729 | NO | dvyxoqwqd7 | |
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} | Kevin Burke | ziCI9SX3WIfXgUgQ0NSy | public | contract | 1,718,209,686,437 | will-india-beat-usa-2024-t20-cricke | KevinBurke | Will India beat USA? 🏏 2024 T20 Cricket World Cup | null | 0.985988 | 1,073.721304 | YES | null | |
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kx6xzsh5lk | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
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... | stefanie | RYV99BeSPUNBvIOdwRRR | public | contract | 1,718,209,693,994 | if-i-host-an-inviteonly-preparty-at | shankypanky | If I host an invite-only pre-party at Manifest (2025), what metrics will I use to vet invitees? | null | null | 21.688108 | YES | mq6nohtafa | |
bvkfog5ge7p | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
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v65fbbrz4e | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
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... | Bayesian | RYV99BeSPUNBvIOdwRRR | public | contract | 1,718,209,780,081 | if-i-host-an-inviteonly-preparty-at | Bayesian | If I host an invite-only pre-party at Manifest (2025), what metrics will I use to vet invitees? | bao60ggtdeu | null | 8.135005 | YES | 9q5skf6tu5 | |
dndyg3m9u8 | false | QtJRN5FemkW3KZtCMJayxzIi0gT2 | {
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} | E McNeill | vZiCpQOF0A3JEM5DfgaM | public | contract | 1,718,209,809,299 | will-i-work-in-antarctica-this-year | EMcNeill | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1qMch5modbJaRv1LY30ehApvwDQzTDFDR8BisLwRs=s96-c | Will I work in Antarctica this year? Which parts of the process will happen? | 3wjcvg8623p | null | 178.25888 | NO | 45a0ee9f0e5b |
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zeo5pvmu3do | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
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"text": "Morris has a history of being mostly fairly good but with some bias. As a prior I'd expect his predictions to be about ten points more pro-biden than N... | Shaked Koplewitz | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,718,209,910,097 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | b4yp92xhivc | null | 827.990113 | YES | 33b8f3dc81b9 |
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"text": "probs obvious to people in such circles but got a link to how the three levels will be introduced/framed? can guess the gist from context but curious a... | Ziddletwix | GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c | public | contract | 1,718,210,011,044 | toddler-trolley-problem-where-does-l9nbomo9lw | Ziddletwix | Toddler Trolley Problem: Where does my son draw the line? | null | null | null | null | null | |
vtgtkw30pzf | false | nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62 | {
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"text": "Yes, my PT is higher tho, and so is their internal pt. The market Would not take it seriously.",
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5j1agd42i0a | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
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} | Predictor 🔥 | xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f | public | contract | 1,718,210,199,141 | will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e | Predictor | Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8? | rah386ixwu | 0.286072 | 5,426.313621 | NO | null |
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