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... | Michael Dickens | 0GswU1qy80Sk1UogWuKR | public | contract | 1,718,234,022,333 | if-artificial-general-intelligence | MichaelDickens | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9qH8xsBO_HRYodujIVQnBJc0ggL30pvw-qQI0n=s96-c | If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? | u85lseim929 | null | 54.249515 | NO | 77945d53aa91 |
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... | Michael Dickens | 0GswU1qy80Sk1UogWuKR | public | contract | 1,718,234,081,211 | if-artificial-general-intelligence | MichaelDickens | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9qH8xsBO_HRYodujIVQnBJc0ggL30pvw-qQI0n=s96-c | If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? | 0hsacelyui36 | null | 54.249515 | NO | 77945d53aa91 |
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... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | kJOoF90wOrG2yWnakE91 | public | contract | 1,718,234,282,983 | will-i-have-sex-in-the-next-24 | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will I have sex in the next 24...? | null | null | 97.073076 | NO | 726d0cbe94e8 |
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... | Pat Scott🩴 | GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c | public | contract | 1,718,234,863,187 | toddler-trolley-problem-where-does-l9nbomo9lw | Stralor | Toddler Trolley Problem: Where does my son draw the line? | dr51ykb4xhh | null | 1,085.777701 | YES | ql9kzq0fbe | |
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... | Pat Scott🩴 | GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c | public | contract | 1,718,234,914,700 | toddler-trolley-problem-where-does-l9nbomo9lw | Stralor | Toddler Trolley Problem: Where does my son draw the line? | dr51ykb4xhh | null | 1,085.777701 | YES | ql9kzq0fbe | |
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... | Michael Wheatley | GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c | public | contract | 1,718,235,052,354 | toddler-trolley-problem-where-does-l9nbomo9lw | MichaelWheatley | Toddler Trolley Problem: Where does my son draw the line? | vi4lu2a7ado | null | 5,011.859528 | NO | ql9kzq0fbe | |
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"text": "that's good! when I blew out mine in a bike crash (major ligament tears), it was days before I could even move it enough to eat, bathe myself, or lift ... | Pat Scott🩴 | qaUZlFTEyx8AVZsTVhRG | public | contract | 1,718,235,186,382 | im-the-guy-who-injured-my-shoulder | Stralor | I'm the guy who injured my shoulder wrestling at manifest. Will my shoulder heal by July 15th? | 5v5stsn3cdy | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Christopher Randles | 1sztIylcNnPWwNQnU7Ko | public | contract | 1,718,236,175,084 | will-spacex-launch-at-least-2-more | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Will SpaceX have launched 3 Starships to space by 2024-09-13? | null | 0.99 | 8,359.020805 | YES | null |
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... | Timothy Johnson | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,718,236,399,263 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 7qrh1gkzzgw | null | 1,663.614791 | YES | 33b8f3dc81b9 |
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... | fish | ufVVp5AtlRI7INo8XeK6 | public | contract | 1,718,240,095,894 | will-carlos-alcaraz-win-a-major-cha | kurt | Will Carlos Alcaraz win a major championship in 2024? | null | 0.99 | 747.069661 | YES | null | |
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... | Lambda Fairy | QNH4iBrVw4mRoymoUzXX | public | contract | 1,718,240,673,045 | will-wonderful-precure-introduce-a | tfae | Will Wonderful Precure introduce a third major male Cure? | null | 0.534962 | 92.434547 | YES | null | |
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... | Michael Wheatley | 5YCd1Ldll79l9DRAFCjP | public | contract | 1,718,240,678,786 | will-aella-bang-all-20-people-on-th | MichaelWheatley | Will Aella bang all 20 people on the manifold all-time leaderboard to raise funds for charity? | null | 0.01491 | 283.602151 | NO | null | |
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... | nikki | juq8iTXz3YSeCIdP49bP | public | contract | 1,718,241,430,203 | will-gpt4opus-report-50-score-on-ar | nikki | Will GPT4/Opus report >50% score on ARC in 2024? | null | 0.245446 | 0 | NO | null | |
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"text": "I think the easiest way to judge this would be to look at the income percentile of each child. If they're all above the 50th percentile for their count... | nsokolsky | UeP9u7hnQNG8bMzEuf12 | public | contract | 1,718,241,564,741 | are-the-pronatalist-couple-good-par | nsokolsky | Are the pronatalist couple good parents? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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} | chris (strutheo) | auR5E826ycmc8eyklAcM | public | contract | 1,718,241,613,018 | will-valve-announce-halflife-3-port | strutheo | Will Valve announce Half-Life 3, Portal 3, Left 4 Dead 3, or Team Fortress 3 during Not-E3? [Before June 13th] | null | 0.015476 | 1,518.461643 | NO | null | |
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"text": "my concern is that there are plenty of ways to have a \"bad outcome\" while still making lots of money, and plenty of ways to have a \"good outcome\" w... | Michael Wheatley | UeP9u7hnQNG8bMzEuf12 | public | contract | 1,718,241,642,840 | are-the-pronatalist-couple-good-par | MichaelWheatley | Are the pronatalist couple good parents? | rgpw7bmqmu | 0.614086 | 437.559324 | YES | null | |
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"type": "doc"... | Benjamin Ikuta | VBqLSfQJQJJIDcqQE2cp | public | contract | 1,718,241,680,691 | will-i-have-a-girlfriend-before-i-t | benjaminIkuta | Will I have a girlfriend before I turn 35, and if so how will we meet? | 0rbvxkfkuzni | null | null | null | null | |
nus6ak9z9ni | false | HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02 | {
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"... | Timothy Bandors | dOWXDI1HVZzvXbeHrmrH | public | contract | 1,718,241,818,251 | will-winds-of-winter-hit-bookstores-y8ifde0y3j | TimothyBandors | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c | Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030? | hhibmwjid1c | null | null | null | null |
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} | chris (strutheo) | OLa9z6uZvjJQA44I0cos | public | contract | 1,718,241,825,934 | will-hunter-biden-be-pardoned-by-jo | strutheo | Will Hunter Biden be pardoned by Joe Biden or any other individual before January 21, 2025? | null | 0.126386 | 163.302243 | NO | null | |
zosxv7nymh | false | h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2 | {
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} | Benjamin Ikuta | ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl | public | contract | 1,718,241,883,640 | will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c | benjaminIkuta | Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024? | probkeme0qf | null | null | null | null | |
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} | Benjamin Ikuta | ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl | public | contract | 1,718,241,938,166 | will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c | benjaminIkuta | Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024? | 1nll4k973rx | null | null | null | null | |
y8f5wdfg0br | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
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} | chris (strutheo) | ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl | public | contract | 1,718,241,962,327 | will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c | strutheo | Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024? | 1nll4k973rx | 0.990285 | 323.544741 | YES | null | |
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"text": "I don’t get plenty of dates either, and to my knowledge no woman has ever wanted to be in a relationship with me anyway - I just think that’s a seconda... | Greg Rosenthal | VBqLSfQJQJJIDcqQE2cp | public | contract | 1,718,242,042,470 | will-i-have-a-girlfriend-before-i-t | gregrosent | Will I have a girlfriend before I turn 35, and if so how will we meet? | 0rbvxkfkuzni | null | null | null | null | |
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"l... | chris (strutheo) | N0kNIIujlTHGdjs4s0Pj | public | contract | 1,718,242,092,872 | what-will-happen-before-jimmy-carte | strutheo | 🪦What will happen before Jimmy Carter dies? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | 393.609221 | YES | 6625265200e5 | |
quie97l7i7 | false | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | {
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} | Michael Wheatley | MLkFNWvFveodoJVGAmbQ | public | contract | 1,718,242,117,269 | will-bowser-reactivate-his-xtwitter | MichaelWheatley | Will Bowser reactivate his X/Twitter account before the end of 2026? | null | 0.286763 | 2,855.242712 | YES | null | |
j4b31qbon | false | Tz41xTDNKjN48bgtH7Me4TYoTKQ2 | {
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... | Leonardo | 1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM | public | contract | 1,718,242,138,228 | will-jimmy-carter-become-a-centenar | LeonardoKr | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpog6i--u15_WA_66nvBoZhXHAdY-Bksm1f9q8CmA=s96-c | Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian? | 4qi42uk48qp | 0.451493 | 19,370.310863 | YES | null |
yywotcqvkh | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
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} | Pat Scott🩴 | qaUZlFTEyx8AVZsTVhRG | public | contract | 1,718,242,145,005 | im-the-guy-who-injured-my-shoulder | Stralor | I'm the guy who injured my shoulder wrestling at manifest. Will my shoulder heal by July 15th? | 5v5stsn3cdy | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Pat Scott🩴 | RYV99BeSPUNBvIOdwRRR | public | contract | 1,718,242,281,595 | if-i-host-an-inviteonly-preparty-at | Stralor | Will I host an invite-only pre-party at Manifest (2025), and what metrics will I use to vet invitees? | null | null | null | null | null | |
hu94jitbbub | false | h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2 | {
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"text": "Oh, okay. So to get more dates, join the Optimized Dating discord server, or read the substack. ",
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"t... | Benjamin Ikuta | VBqLSfQJQJJIDcqQE2cp | public | contract | 1,718,242,290,826 | will-i-have-a-girlfriend-before-i-t | benjaminIkuta | Will I have a girlfriend before I turn 35, and if so how will we meet? | 0rbvxkfkuzni | null | null | null | null | |
vlqne1enud9 | false | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | {
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"text": "For the context, so far in the history of spaceflight nobody has died whi... | Evan | J123mptTDyIPuc4WVzSa | public | contract | 1,718,242,309,326 | will-somebody-die-in-space-today | EvanDaniel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c | Will somebody die in space today? | null | null | null | null | null |
40p3irso5zt | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
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} | chris (strutheo) | niT5T1XTKSo97balphUT | public | contract | 1,718,242,321,523 | drunk-driving-is-legal-again-for-se | strutheo | Drunk driving is legal again for self-driving car drivers in at least one US state before 2033 | null | null | null | null | null | |
8b1hq9mazyn | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
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} | chris (strutheo) | EGqAvAzJn4dQTqC4W8mC | public | contract | 1,718,242,385,948 | which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-yo | strutheo | Which Hogwarts house do you sort Yossarian (Caatch 22) into? | null | null | null | null | null | |
lh26c66xxl | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
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"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | chris (strutheo) | szUrSgdNQDBxn14E5D7E | public | contract | 1,718,242,761,285 | will-noam-chomsky-become-a-centenar-edd6fae0d611 | strutheo | Will Noam Chomsky become a centenarian? | null | null | null | null | null | |
kf2bsnosxn9 | false | 9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2 | {
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"text": "Thank you for all your predictions! The next question can be found here:",
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... | CrowTheFox | 7yL7RdrkWBVz8fOiUeN5 | public | contract | 1,718,242,762,351 | what-will-my-d12-land-on-daily-ity1bzpcpz | CrowTheFox | What will my d12 land on? - Daily | null | null | null | null | null | |
tuyl24dipc | false | Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2 | {
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} | JGY | MLkFNWvFveodoJVGAmbQ | public | contract | 1,718,242,807,402 | will-bowser-reactivate-his-xtwitter | jgyou | Will Bowser reactivate his X/Twitter account before the end of 2026? | quie97l7i7 | null | null | null | null | |
55dblvf9oji | false | Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2 | {
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} | JGY | MLkFNWvFveodoJVGAmbQ | public | contract | 1,718,242,906,971 | will-bowser-reactivate-his-xtwitter | jgyou | Will Bowser (@browserdotsys) reactivate his X/Twitter account before the end of 2026? | null | null | null | null | null | |
9xk36sntc7 | false | rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2 | {
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"text": "I haven't done the research or the math to be sure, but I think the outcomes are currently set up such that the average person would be more likely to ... | blue rat | UeP9u7hnQNG8bMzEuf12 | public | contract | 1,718,243,169,474 | are-the-pronatalist-couple-good-par | bluerat | Are the pronatalist couple good parents? | null | 0.631882 | 0 | YES | null | |
5tiky4lmkk | false | lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2 | {
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"text": "Arbitrage opportunity: At the time of this comment there's a 6% difference between 'At least one' on this market and 'At least one card banned in Moder... | Marty Dettmann | dieN4aoGXvFyy52HqLQs | public | contract | 1,718,243,203,282 | how-many-modern-horizons-3-cards-wi | MartyDettmann | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4X4k5peP3YYJWBXSzhmIMRoOAjScc3GzTCFflw=s96-c | How many Modern Horizons 3 cards will be banned in Modern by the end of 2025? | null | null | null | null | null |
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... | Bayesian | EOh5PZMmoD7w9iQac7J8 | public | contract | 1,718,243,334,849 | will-nick-bostrom-found-a-new-insti | Bayesian | Will Nick Bostrom found a new institute with a similar purpose to the Future of Humanity Institute, before 2025? | vh4l7tio9zc | 0.706852 | 18.456343 | YES | null | |
i35xo9hs19n | false | RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2 | {
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"text": "Looks like this resolves YES unless there is some reason that these 260 refugees don't count: ",
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... | Arky | sMqAlsHhsaPIBpco3XYe | public | contract | 1,718,243,458,580 | will-france-accept-refugees-from-ga-50067f51adc3 | Arky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c | Will France accept refugees from Gaza by the end of 2024? | null | 0.306015 | 2,340.783789 | YES | null |
zmonvthajvs | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
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... | Arky | sMqAlsHhsaPIBpco3XYe | public | contract | 1,718,243,524,058 | will-france-accept-refugees-from-ga-50067f51adc3 | Arky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c | Will France accept refugees from Gaza by the end of 2024? | i35xo9hs19n | 0.306015 | 2,340.783789 | YES | null |
120kxyt12ex | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
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... | chris (strutheo) | e6Kis76ijStBS5LUeVUE | public | contract | 1,718,243,534,442 | will-noam-chomsky-be-alive-at-the-e | strutheo | Will Noam Chomsky be alive at the end of 2024? | zmonvthajvs | null | null | null | null | |
2vne2xn00ea | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
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"ty... | Pat Scott🩴 | UeP9u7hnQNG8bMzEuf12 | public | contract | 1,718,243,758,313 | are-the-pronatalist-couple-good-par | Stralor | Are the pronatalist couple good parents? | 9xk36sntc7 | 0.631882 | 576.960728 | NO | null | |
tykdb4seoh | false | PwnWmeHcSlb2CzRNbjuxPkr2ojG3 | {
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"text": "I'm pretty surprised, the injury was pretty nasty, I can also carefully plank on the shoulder without pain, but a lot of sudden movements in my day to ... | Dan. W. | qaUZlFTEyx8AVZsTVhRG | public | contract | 1,718,243,840,592 | im-the-guy-who-injured-my-shoulder | DanW | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp62lIWkw3f9_ZrkLQFa_pDCqpauwNf9Lu2EI8mA=s96-c | I'm the guy who injured my shoulder wrestling at manifest. Will my shoulder heal by July 15th? | 5v5stsn3cdy | null | null | null | null |
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... | Abraham | kTqFEe6g2tkfyNj5yHsW | public | contract | 1,718,244,099,517 | akainu-stock | Abraham2a3c | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL7_tb_QD4TPXfXyzHc5i54_w1wuVUUR9Y4ONcVNMiZ=s96-c | Akainu Stock | null | 0.734567 | 246.080456 | YES | null |
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