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z2ywross9
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "label": "DanMan314", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
Eliza
F4jmVjJUWxRC3aZ9VRkJ
public
contract
1,718,218,780,140
how-many-parameters-will-gpt4-have
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
How many parameters will GPT-4 have?
fnm3df68xch
null
null
null
null
wyyyilo6g7
false
Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "suit, not suite", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { ...
Andrew Smith
VBqLSfQJQJJIDcqQE2cp
public
contract
1,718,218,855,007
will-i-have-a-girlfriend-before-i-t
asmith
https://firebasestorage.…a0f-d901653a5912
Will I have a girlfriend before I turn 35, and if so how will we meet?
d4dnitqttmc
null
null
null
null
5ero2hs4w5
false
jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "when is flight departure? I missed my flight to Manifest getting held up in the US customs line in the Canadian airport.", "type": "text" ...
Michael Wheatley
UZ82jJfPdfDAZ56n0sgh
public
contract
1,718,218,965,241
will-my-partner-and-i-miss-our-flig
MichaelWheatley
https://firebasestorage.…671-d7dcd38ad23a
will my partner and I miss our flight?
null
50
437.559324
NO
null
z2ydc3qyhc
false
oM4vpyCe6Ca43M78SipoTXcgIL53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Can you clarify whether you mean \"before 2025-01-01\" or \"on or before 2025-12-31\"?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "par...
Ross Rheingans-Yoo
i1c6Re4DhnUS1Yyg5ymj
public
contract
1,718,219,048,298
fda-legalizes-magic-mushrooms-for-c
rossry
https://firebasestorage.…78f-c038986f33e5
FDA legalizes magic mushrooms/psilocybin/etc. for clinical use by 2025
null
null
null
null
null
5v5stsn3cdy
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Have you had it checked for tendon/ ligament tears? Is the bone sticking up? A dislocation that popped back in could heal quickly, but major ligament d...
Pat Scott🩴
qaUZlFTEyx8AVZsTVhRG
public
contract
1,718,219,065,051
im-the-guy-who-injured-my-shoulder
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
I'm the guy who injured my shoulder wrestling at manifest. Will my shoulder heal by July 15th?
null
null
null
null
null
xh14xkdyc4i
false
jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "(takes about five minutes of walking)", "type": "text" ...
Michael Wheatley
UZ82jJfPdfDAZ56n0sgh
public
contract
1,718,219,099,088
will-my-partner-and-i-miss-our-flig
MichaelWheatley
https://firebasestorage.…671-d7dcd38ad23a
will my partner and I miss our flight?
null
50
2,723.541574
NO
null
f7wsc8mynla
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "me: 😇 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { ...
Pat Scott🩴
RYV99BeSPUNBvIOdwRRR
public
contract
1,718,219,202,812
if-i-host-an-inviteonly-preparty-at
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will I host an invite-only pre-party at Manifest (2025), and what metrics will I use to vet invitees?
bvkfog5ge7p
null
null
null
null
4sl6vf1sr7
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "fool me once...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
RYV99BeSPUNBvIOdwRRR
public
contract
1,718,219,236,575
if-i-host-an-inviteonly-preparty-at
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will I host an invite-only pre-party at Manifest (2025), and what metrics will I use to vet invitees?
bvkfog5ge7p
null
21.688108
YES
mq6nohtafa
d173u5gw0oa
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I unresolved it and it paid people back, but the frontend UI is still wrong. I think I can re-resolve it with a different value and get the correct pay...
Eliza
F4jmVjJUWxRC3aZ9VRkJ
public
contract
1,718,219,242,575
how-many-parameters-will-gpt4-have
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
How many parameters will GPT-4 have?
fnm3df68xch
null
null
null
null
jjt1tby45w
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "ehehehe that link could be fuuun", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
RYV99BeSPUNBvIOdwRRR
public
contract
1,718,219,243,567
if-i-host-an-inviteonly-preparty-at
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will I host an invite-only pre-party at Manifest (2025), and what metrics will I use to vet invitees?
98s8dltrfqo
null
null
null
null
e82k70kkwj
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "oh wait you were twice scorned!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
RYV99BeSPUNBvIOdwRRR
public
contract
1,718,219,252,116
if-i-host-an-inviteonly-preparty-at
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will I host an invite-only pre-party at Manifest (2025), and what metrics will I use to vet invitees?
bvkfog5ge7p
null
21.688108
YES
mq6nohtafa
ybghah4le6
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "😞 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
RYV99BeSPUNBvIOdwRRR
public
contract
1,718,219,270,401
if-i-host-an-inviteonly-preparty-at
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will I host an invite-only pre-party at Manifest (2025), and what metrics will I use to vet invitees?
bvkfog5ge7p
null
null
null
null
up7ykuo0a9
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "label": "itsTomekK", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
The Official
SHDKMxdI1AvFf4Hh93hT
public
contract
1,718,219,274,178
will-lionel-messi-play-at-the-euro
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
Will Lionel Messi play at the EURO 2024?
null
0.01
0
NO
null
rfhv4t5lc7
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "some of these options are at 69% and I appreciate how apropos that is", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ]...
Pat Scott🩴
RYV99BeSPUNBvIOdwRRR
public
contract
1,718,219,430,508
if-i-host-an-inviteonly-preparty-at
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will I host an invite-only pre-party at Manifest (2025), and what metrics will I use to vet invitees?
null
null
null
null
null
okjiqx53jg
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "same - the default 5M initial bet on an option at 50% knowingly takes you right there ♋", "type": "text" } ], "type": "pa...
stefanie
RYV99BeSPUNBvIOdwRRR
public
contract
1,718,219,531,029
if-i-host-an-inviteonly-preparty-at
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will I host an invite-only pre-party at Manifest (2025), and what metrics will I use to vet invitees?
rfhv4t5lc7
null
21.688108
YES
mq6nohtafa
rb8w4d39i9i
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm rich 😅 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "ty...
Dan
F4jmVjJUWxRC3aZ9VRkJ
public
contract
1,718,219,531,597
how-many-parameters-will-gpt4-have
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
How many parameters will GPT-4 have?
fnm3df68xch
0.873131
174.354316
YES
null
bxypbgoryf
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "make the invite vetting an ARG... that would be kinda awesome actually", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
Pat Scott🩴
RYV99BeSPUNBvIOdwRRR
public
contract
1,718,219,567,640
if-i-host-an-inviteonly-preparty-at
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will I host an invite-only pre-party at Manifest (2025), and what metrics will I use to vet invitees?
kx6xzsh5lk
null
null
null
null
n1q3hm1bzv
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Isn't this just going to resolve the same as that market? I don't see the reason for creating a duplicate.", "type": "text" } ]...
Timothy Johnson
BvTK6G4LTEXpKCcWqASO
public
contract
1,718,219,919,779
will-tslabull-be-profitable-on-his
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will TSLABull be profitable on his TSLA market?
null
null
null
null
null
2yk16rnenao
false
3RoBkYJsd8WEFtOHbRA9aN9IfSf1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Passed 100 Miles on the Appalachian Trail earlier today.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "...
Michael McMullen
398jUuRVe4TUggHmwsw6
public
contract
1,718,219,942,783
will-i-hike-at-least-100-miles-on-a
MichaelMcMullen
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJFdYSW5z7XJHkvcESSBCqqUxEr4YuyvAd72vcSgjrP=s96-c
Will I hike at least 100 miles on a single trail in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
b0djmwg0b3f
false
DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Apple is now ahead! This is very likely to resolve YES once markets close", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }...
TonyPepperoni 🪿
sFLTrrt9vVkquBti85Nu
public
contract
1,718,220,001,591
will-apple-surpass-microsoft-in-mar
TonyPepperoni
https://firebasestorage.…884-fdf2cfdcaefb
Will Apple surpass Microsoft in market capitalization in 2024?
null
0.692206
3,466.786034
YES
null
nuchigj2tcc
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I unresolved a second time and re-resolved a third time. This time I am more confident in the result.", "type": "text" } ], ...
Eliza
F4jmVjJUWxRC3aZ9VRkJ
public
contract
1,718,220,156,817
how-many-parameters-will-gpt4-have
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
How many parameters will GPT-4 have?
fnm3df68xch
null
null
null
null
3w53ovp0cln
false
dp5qoJAOmqgfNGxbRm00x8b9bU03
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Dall E is the tech behind 4o image generation, right?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs...
Mactuary
qKZnUG5ZWu1BzkeKcB34
public
contract
1,718,220,175,996
will-dalle-3-consistently-generate-822e0ace6fa0
Mactuary
https://firebasestorage.…977-b24dde9fa772
Will DALL-E 3+ consistently generate accurate images from the prompt "yellow ocean, blue sand" before 2025?
kgwqmn22pq
0.581273
550.890268
NO
null
1ri53bfhxgn
false
jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "moar dates", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jess Riedel
M2QqbxhM9tScUEerv0yO
public
contract
1,718,220,246,921
when-will-there-be-a-5th-starship-l
JessRiedel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c
When will there be a 5th Starship launch?
null
null
448.002012
NO
mr9rm3qlsv
2rgje70iren
false
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thanks, fixed!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ian Philips
i1c6Re4DhnUS1Yyg5ymj
public
contract
1,718,220,285,933
fda-legalizes-magic-mushrooms-for-c
ian
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
FDA legalizes magic mushrooms/psilocybin/etc. for clinical use by the end of 2025
z2ydc3qyhc
null
null
null
null
stc2itviagr
false
Q9XCF79f7JgZF8itYw5uDJg3Whm2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "label": "Haws", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
blankspace737
QkZgeemQXPC0Bm5pfXrI
public
contract
1,718,220,288,404
are-you-voting-for-trump-or-biden
stardust
https://firebasestorage.…901-b7160011e796
Are you voting for Trump or Biden?
h8bo8lgdz6s
null
null
null
null
upi33cb8hc
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Timothy Johnson
xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f
public
contract
1,718,220,356,918
will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8?
null
0.2
3,606.472115
NO
null
hfx53clz79c
false
B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's an annual, it may decline after flowering", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Elliot Davies
wCpBQF8erLRrEkNiZoPt
public
contract
1,718,220,509,046
will-mr-basil-survive-2024
ElliotDavies
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c
Will Mr. Basil survive 2024?
null
0.588849
219.782046
NO
null
u0r4y6dbe3
false
vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Any of these out there yet? I haven't seen any", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Marnix
yUXvUS6st7v6ZhnP46wR
public
contract
1,718,220,617,462
will-bluesky-be-decentralized-in-pr
Marnix
https://firebasestorage.…d53-a4e0da9e141d
Will Bluesky be decentralized in practice before the end of 2024?
null
0.99
1,003.240001
YES
null
azrxzlbfjce
false
IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So I could bet NO then make a question before inauguration that ends after inauguration with JIMMY CARTER in the title and ensure I win?", "t...
Ken Michaels
DAt7GH0XjUxA8jxRyY8M
public
contract
1,718,220,621,361
will-the-incessant-jimmy-carter-mar
kenmichaels
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkalbert%2FsV_slNrI7H.MP?alt=media&token=cceb6bb1-21f3-4385-9a6c-c47195b85cb9
Will the incessant Jimmy Carter markets end before the next presidential inauguration?
null
0.1
808.004716
YES
null
s5fyqy5ego
false
IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why would I bet YES on this question?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ken Michaels
DAt7GH0XjUxA8jxRyY8M
public
contract
1,718,220,650,390
will-the-incessant-jimmy-carter-mar
kenmichaels
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkalbert%2FsV_slNrI7H.MP?alt=media&token=cceb6bb1-21f3-4385-9a6c-c47195b85cb9
Will the incessant Jimmy Carter markets end before the next presidential inauguration?
null
0.1
808.004716
YES
null
5lb5cj08qzo
false
IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Since all the questions I have seen are about President Carter's death, I would think all of those should be closed if he dies before the next inaugura...
Ken Michaels
DAt7GH0XjUxA8jxRyY8M
public
contract
1,718,220,734,001
will-the-incessant-jimmy-carter-mar
kenmichaels
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkalbert%2FsV_slNrI7H.MP?alt=media&token=cceb6bb1-21f3-4385-9a6c-c47195b85cb9
Will the incessant Jimmy Carter markets end before the next presidential inauguration?
null
0.1
808.004716
YES
null
5bcfqx83n12
false
5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Jacob Pfau
AxjVvY3ODsYROrnOgANi
public
contract
1,718,220,829,517
will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai
JacobPfau
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9AcHAinEt-V5Xi8pbj83HmY8nWf1vkc_FfNTDr=s96-c
Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?
null
0.214871
-0
NO
null
5qakppik7kx
false
B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I guess I think having calibrated markets is more important than providing motivation for users ", "type": "text" }, { ...
Elliot Davies
seqOxXPWi10KSWvMMoI2
public
contract
1,718,220,830,121
will-i-be-the-worlds-youngest-billi
ElliotDavies
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c
Will I be the world's youngest billionaire by the end of 2025?
b9zjmhozzp
0.108945
7,007.103263
NO
null
efecyzzuf24
false
5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"No ARC human baseline exists! ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks":...
Jacob Pfau
AxjVvY3ODsYROrnOgANi
public
contract
1,718,220,857,785
will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai
JacobPfau
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9AcHAinEt-V5Xi8pbj83HmY8nWf1vkc_FfNTDr=s96-c
Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?
5bcfqx83n12
0.214871
-0
NO
null
7thhzrw5q18
false
NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Convenient property this market has: if they ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
Josh
5ntojl71lJmW6y8SRBKX
public
contract
1,718,220,957,892
will-manifold-do-an-airdrop-before
josh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx0QJyn3_RlfR7N92j1FntqMP_80imf6p_zLKws=s96-c
Will Manifold do a crypto airdrop before Jan 1st, 2028?
null
0.396328
614.210928
NO
null
yb3ae6j8d5a
false
ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Some of the options like H seem... logically possible yes, but a bit out there.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null...
Stark
0GswU1qy80Sk1UogWuKR
public
contract
1,718,221,096,246
if-artificial-general-intelligence
StarkLN
https://firebasestorage.…b7b-8e8f10700842
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
ogwacwntbvr
null
1,766.826064
YES
f9ea2a612aa0
h4v4d8yu4a
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "had no idea actually!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Haws
QkZgeemQXPC0Bm5pfXrI
public
contract
1,718,221,335,317
are-you-voting-for-trump-or-biden
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Are you voting for Trump or Biden?
h8bo8lgdz6s
null
null
null
null
fsqatrywav
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Dan
d4Q6E8x0ZBICV7VS7fha
public
contract
1,718,221,485,942
will-levy-rozman-attain-a-gm-norm-a
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
Will Levy Rozman attain a GM norm at the Madrid Invitational?
null
null
null
null
null
mxe87to1glg
false
hQbeiz4VmvY6HxxJAT87V5pFuhS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2", "label": "Snarflak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Mark Bowen
QkZgeemQXPC0Bm5pfXrI
public
contract
1,718,221,735,610
are-you-voting-for-trump-or-biden
MarkBowen
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrhpHD9z-sCsnmuOnjdBUlN3oTne-OC3D7JhuvNtooLwQT=s96-c
Are you voting for Trump or Biden?
h8bo8lgdz6s
null
null
null
null
5ovaw6wvdkt
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
nikki
DAt7GH0XjUxA8jxRyY8M
public
contract
1,718,221,998,226
will-the-incessant-jimmy-carter-mar
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Will the incessant Jimmy Carter markets end before the next presidential inauguration?
null
0.1
1,449.249547
NO
null
3cq0khvsd1
false
UAybp5Bg2JWQFmKZCqv1DEllms23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Congrats man!!!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
Madhav Kumar
ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl
public
contract
1,718,222,068,973
will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c
MadhavKumar
https://storage.googleap…Cqv1DEllms23.png
Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024?
null
0.974441
92.502808
YES
null
5dx6irfmfqh
false
XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": ...
Peter Miller
xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f
public
contract
1,718,222,078,972
will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e
PeterMillerc030
https://firebasestorage.…12a-e0019b6a7e37
Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8?
rah386ixwu
0.239005
9,129.351956
NO
null
8rge8r47djo
false
vqOl1dlQVOSB2G1M7JIHzLcrooa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The 538 makes no sense. They have Trump leading every swing state in their average, Biden is at record low favourability too.", "type": "text...
Kwame Osei
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,718,222,149,365
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
KwameOsei
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4qRkce5XFoxssZ_Z0BMJ4Aw1YVRC8EdMiNS4wz=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
5ki3wekpv17
null
122.884544
YES
33b8f3dc81b9
iegl39m649
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2", "label": "admissions", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention...
nikki
DAt7GH0XjUxA8jxRyY8M
public
contract
1,718,222,302,427
will-the-incessant-jimmy-carter-mar
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Will the incessant Jimmy Carter markets end before the next presidential inauguration?
5ovaw6wvdkt
0.1
1,449.249547
NO
null
3qc1aogtfb2
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yes. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ihor Kendiukhov
InfkbfL3uNM9GNq9qgKy
public
contract
1,718,222,324,433
will-there-be-a-relatively-selfsust
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?
jhqiy67zf0k
0.205056
19.234326
NO
null
vrrqqdbxx5q
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The Fed is now forecasting a single rate cut this year: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": ...
Timothy Johnson
3Eu2EULeucc99X2lOxAZ
public
contract
1,718,222,421,793
matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-f
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least fifty basis points
null
0.424346
178.250518
NO
null
dqi280gxr4v
false
nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thinkindecades", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
TSLABull
xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f
public
contract
1,718,222,485,960
will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e
MolbyDick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXY86BCu6RTvqG8yEFc5Y7D_S97tCf20jO2Z8tVPKaaUqG14DA9PLqiLMFEeMfNIZqYYE4tIzI_BrVccd4GjslXsd5xpRxNHEYntNGm2gIyorhNQXCFWaGveqVbopCKtvW8Hxom_b74OxRgIK95auugOa5P56HIijcmp8zUBmze5fHo3g0ex4yJjnK3v7cvgEOF25_-TG4N8zJWXs8h_RcZDoDOKDs__GbJIprrIRmH0xBPqyMPjM6JiRSy1sfS72DHbE53wywXJmkbjC8pw3F...
Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8?
rah386ixwu
0.239901
2,419,308.217231
YES
null
jfdiqyrlvo
false
nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Iconic", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
TSLABull
xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f
public
contract
1,718,222,505,671
will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e
MolbyDick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXY86BCu6RTvqG8yEFc5Y7D_S97tCf20jO2Z8tVPKaaUqG14DA9PLqiLMFEeMfNIZqYYE4tIzI_BrVccd4GjslXsd5xpRxNHEYntNGm2gIyorhNQXCFWaGveqVbopCKtvW8Hxom_b74OxRgIK95auugOa5P56HIijcmp8zUBmze5fHo3g0ex4yJjnK3v7cvgEOF25_-TG4N8zJWXs8h_RcZDoDOKDs__GbJIprrIRmH0xBPqyMPjM6JiRSy1sfS72DHbE53wywXJmkbjC8pw3F...
Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8?
n4lpueflho9
0.239901
2,419,308.217231
YES
null
2d346kphkqu
false
ZO9qSVVstZgzKNToBWDYibeBW8P2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I haven't played ranked games there yet", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Andri
ckXjJM5798ndk6IsL6c7
public
contract
1,718,222,566,475
will-i-get-a-chess-rating-of-1000-i
andri
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHeGd_f3weXHQGNPF2fxvAezw2jBBMQXNlzd1tkV2szg=s96-c
Will I get a chess rating of 1000+ in 2024?
8amw93mu6c
0.535654
130.492291
YES
null
kxqfx1mmqof
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is this only for heads of state? What about heads of government (e.g. Prime Ministers)? Governors-General of Commonwealth Realms, who are sorta-kinda h...
Bruno
AIFQd0IOCEiEphD2sfeM
public
contract
1,718,222,639,911
which-country-will-be-the-first-to-a02ed879d608
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Which country will be the first to have a transgender head of state?
null
null
null
null
null
65da0r9ys3d
false
vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "label": "MetaculusBot", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
AVS
t0wz2JdWIuef4R8Jb4b4
public
contract
1,718,222,652,219
will-the-us-require-and-verify-repo
AVS
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c
Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?
null
0.464554
2,084.474886
YES
null
y8ewgtex8gr
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "i think id consider it head of government in the case where the PM is more powerful / known than the President (like israel?) ", "type": "tex...
chris (strutheo)
AIFQd0IOCEiEphD2sfeM
public
contract
1,718,222,763,286
which-country-will-be-the-first-to-a02ed879d608
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which country will be the first to have a transgender head of state?
kxqfx1mmqof
null
0
NO
18f8d2a047da
uy7hodgahug
false
XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "After 1 decade of making 13% per year, the S&P 500 will be up 230%", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "...
Peter Miller
xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f
public
contract
1,718,222,794,059
will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e
PeterMillerc030
https://firebasestorage.…12a-e0019b6a7e37
Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8?
rah386ixwu
0.239901
9,129.351956
NO
null
ldfa2ii0a9
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "epic gotcha. also resolution criteria are hard", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
t0wz2JdWIuef4R8Jb4b4
public
contract
1,718,222,797,104
will-the-us-require-and-verify-repo
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?
65da0r9ys3d
0.464554
2,148.724474
YES
null
wmab6wxnyvq
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That would be great. Let me know if it goes above 60%.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "do...
Eliza
qi0jMEHGilHFa8bEY2Ur
public
contract
1,718,223,195,179
will-winds-of-winter-hit-bookstores
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2026?
null
0.47641
87.103345
NO
null
kx0avrinw8e
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "v important for creators in a post-pivot economy. also a good look for sitewide calibration to outsiders. I heard some staff talk about wanting to do t...
Pat Scott🩴
ViwjLO1DtSprQqbHwOOt
public
contract
1,718,223,231,007
will-manifold-introduce-a-mechanism-a21e5ee4f7d5
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will manifold introduce a mechanism for retroactive market closure in 2024?
null
0.151271
1,043.579384
YES
null
lso99a7hybj
false
yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "In the past, I’ve specifically mentioned the title text if I meant to include it, so I am going to say that the title text is NOT included", ...
EBurk
GDcUaRxvx5C8p5HHWEnQ
public
contract
1,718,223,258,594
what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-fr-6zoqpex4oz
EBurk
https://firebasestorage.…0e3-2fdb94d99bad
What will be true of the xkcd on Friday, June 14th, 2024?
koy8h8ptnv
null
315.59711
YES
wbw1mpm8jb
zxuakmo1l29
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "hell, as a trader who also often gets burned by my outstanding limits it'd be nice, too!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "p...
Pat Scott🩴
ViwjLO1DtSprQqbHwOOt
public
contract
1,718,223,288,565
will-manifold-introduce-a-mechanism-a21e5ee4f7d5
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will manifold introduce a mechanism for retroactive market closure in 2024?
kx0avrinw8e
0.151271
1,043.579384
YES
null
rszjvq2gavl
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "finally all green! ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, ...
chris (strutheo)
1y0FHXHuFnJAuSndRGKJ
public
contract
1,718,223,306,983
coolfold-financial-advice-suggest-i
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
💰CoolFold Financial Advice: Suggest Investments for Me & Predict their ROI in 6 months, invest & win real money!
null
null
null
null
null
yrv8kowm0j
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
SirCryptomind
JFjAIkbwOJd4vF4Hav8Q
public
contract
1,718,223,480,009
-will-the-sp-500-indexspinx-close-h-537e7ffcdd2e
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
🏛⬆️ Will The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) Close Higher Than 5,399.99 At Any Point During 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
36c4njt4acn
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "FED FUNDS : UNCH (5.25-5.5%)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
SirCryptomind
U3K6qpp4tvhO6ZeQY0VJ
public
contract
1,718,223,710,784
will-the-fmoc-stay-with-their-march-b00562c17f39
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
Will The FOMC Stay With Their March 2024 Indication In Their Statement Of Penciling In 0.75% Total Rate Cut During 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
3yailyp6q8i
false
nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think that’s the dumbest take I’ve ever seen", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
TSLABull
xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f
public
contract
1,718,223,724,343
will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e
MolbyDick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXY86BCu6RTvqG8yEFc5Y7D_S97tCf20jO2Z8tVPKaaUqG14DA9PLqiLMFEeMfNIZqYYE4tIzI_BrVccd4GjslXsd5xpRxNHEYntNGm2gIyorhNQXCFWaGveqVbopCKtvW8Hxom_b74OxRgIK95auugOa5P56HIijcmp8zUBmze5fHo3g0ex4yJjnK3v7cvgEOF25_-TG4N8zJWXs8h_RcZDoDOKDs__GbJIprrIRmH0xBPqyMPjM6JiRSy1sfS72DHbE53wywXJmkbjC8pw3F...
Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8?
rah386ixwu
0.24
2,419,308.217231
YES
null
0c4t0g5ygzw
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "FED FUNDS : UNCH (5.25-5.5%)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
SirCryptomind
BtglLNaU4xhmq9knER7R
public
contract
1,718,223,785,895
will-the-fmoc-stay-with-their-march
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
Will The FOMC Stay With Their March 2024 Indication In Their Statement Of Having 3 Rate Cuts During 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
ihpugtkl8v
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "NEW ATH 5,421.03", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
SirCryptomind
3S8p2GOiP5rZxhcebZul
public
contract
1,718,223,941,406
-will-the-sp-500-indexspinx-close-h-17e3f57ffc51
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
🏛⬆️ Will The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) Close Higher Than 5,499.99 At Any Point During 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
y9ltw0cwh
false
XeQf3ygmrGM1MxdsE3JSlmq8vL42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "oSyhdaaBLYgR3tLXoGgKJzDTxtL2", "label": "Hazel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Jacy
qKZnUG5ZWu1BzkeKcB34
public
contract
1,718,224,016,435
will-dalle-3-consistently-generate-822e0ace6fa0
Jacy
https://firebasestorage.…73f-503ef6cf6c81
Will DALL-E 3+ consistently generate accurate images from the prompt "yellow ocean, blue sand" before 2025?
kgwqmn22pq
0.581273
8,909.3331
NO
null
cr52mwq50bj
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Lots of 6/21 $20 calls transacted near end of trading today. Not clear who is buying/selling but somethings going on. I don't know enough about options...
Al Quinn
X7AcP3q4aEbyvjuM8uge
public
contract
1,718,224,304,691
will-keith-gill-exercise-all-his-ju
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
Will Keith Gill exercise all his June 21st $20 calls?
null
0.209396
869.624172
NO
null
rqaxpjp4uyr
false
XeQf3ygmrGM1MxdsE3JSlmq8vL42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dp5qoJAOmqgfNGxbRm00x8b9bU03", "label": "Mactuary", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Jacy
qKZnUG5ZWu1BzkeKcB34
public
contract
1,718,224,346,373
will-dalle-3-consistently-generate-822e0ace6fa0
Jacy
https://firebasestorage.…73f-503ef6cf6c81
Will DALL-E 3+ consistently generate accurate images from the prompt "yellow ocean, blue sand" before 2025?
kgwqmn22pq
0.581273
9,068.378096
NO
null
0qfbjxhnz88p
false
AAlytu8Z2cYd1ewYzuqhkU9NMgt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The emoji committee is no fun >:(", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
niko
vwS7bs4GioJt5H2FDrxC
public
contract
1,718,224,561,039
will-there-be-a-d20-20-sided-dice-e
Nikos
https://firebasestorage.…a97-2c3621c2928b
Will there be a d20 (20 sided dice) emoji by the end of 2027?
null
0.488064
181.196028
NO
null
mz8sd2qg7q
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Timothy Johnson
ySQPq7vd9T88EOTpZFE3
public
contract
1,718,224,619,933
will-jakob-ingebrigtsen-win-the-dou
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen win the double at the European Athletics Championships?
null
0.872918
1,739.913934
YES
null
2kuy6c73jj4
false
cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2", "label": "nikki", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
lukres
DAt7GH0XjUxA8jxRyY8M
public
contract
1,718,224,644,407
will-the-incessant-jimmy-carter-mar
lukres
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2
Will the incessant Jimmy Carter markets end before the next presidential inauguration?
5ovaw6wvdkt
0.139104
0
YES
null
yortg2phlc
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "My wife had two positive covid tests on Monday, and today her symptoms are improving but she's still moderately ill. I feel normal.", "type"...
Jonathan Ray
cCKe5crr6hlARaVQvGtl
public
contract
1,718,224,724,961
will-my-followup-covid-test-be-posi
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
Will my follow-up covid test be positive?
null
null
null
null
null
g6i61cm43u
false
cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3", "label": "kenmichaels", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
lukres
DAt7GH0XjUxA8jxRyY8M
public
contract
1,718,224,746,911
will-the-incessant-jimmy-carter-mar
lukres
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2
Will the incessant Jimmy Carter markets end before the next presidential inauguration?
azrxzlbfjce
0.139104
0
YES
null
rw8ix3mola
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That's what I think. But others seem much more optimistic:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "...
singer
EmsBAf19VL7CVDhsM9A5
public
contract
1,718,224,787,488
if-another-carrington-event-occurre
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, what percent of the US population would still be alive after 6 months?
5cn4p4snmsp
null
265.077509
YES
00s2mg866d
h93dee30psm
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4.X now", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jonathan Ray
08CguCAadjIe4FPIk9JV
public
contract
1,718,224,791,237
will-i-become-a-decamillionaire-thi
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
Will I become a decamillionaire this decade?
2gaPolOMeQWZ04Y0q6eS
0.877393
407.223122
YES
null
2qegc1we1f3
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2", "label": "admissions", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention...
nikki
DAt7GH0XjUxA8jxRyY8M
public
contract
1,718,224,810,957
will-the-incessant-jimmy-carter-mar
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Will the incessant Jimmy Carter markets end before the next presidential inauguration?
5ovaw6wvdkt
0.139104
1,449.249547
NO
null
n0upnw9ha2q
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "538 is based on more than just polls. I'm guessing that's where most of the difference between their model and Economist is coming from. Some of it pro...
Plasma Ballin'
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,718,224,824,800
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
5ki3wekpv17
null
4,025.994912
NO
088d6b2862b1
6hjob289ke
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2", "label": "admissions", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention...
nikki
DAt7GH0XjUxA8jxRyY8M
public
contract
1,718,224,859,705
will-the-incessant-jimmy-carter-mar
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Will the incessant Jimmy Carter markets end before the next presidential inauguration?
azrxzlbfjce
0.139104
1,449.249547
NO
null
5u941j754o3
false
cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2", "label": "nikki", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
lukres
DAt7GH0XjUxA8jxRyY8M
public
contract
1,718,225,055,380
will-the-incessant-jimmy-carter-mar
lukres
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2
Will the incessant Jimmy Carter markets end before the next presidential inauguration?
5ovaw6wvdkt
0.1
0
YES
null
jshrzdkcfw
false
XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I dunno. Malaria is a huge cause area, that's why the \"Against Malaria Foundation\" has always been among the top charities.", "type": "text...
Schwabilismus
H9YiamjMIXEmeBkG02uw
public
contract
1,718,225,062,799
will-givewell-recommend-a-charity-d
Schwabilismus
https://firebasestorage.…7ac-9e48249d8120
Will Givewell recommend a charity distributing the New Malaria Vaccine "R21 Matrix M"?
ye79e460qoq
0.348502
23.755932
NO
null
lzn0ayz0u4
false
ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I was about to ask that question, and then read this comment.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "typ...
Zane
RbuM4p3qOH0BmlmucGe4
public
contract
1,718,225,176,067
will-scott-alexander-endorse-joe-bi
ZaneMiller
https://firebasestorage.…cd7-65f87738b782
Will Scott Alexander endorse Joe Biden in 2024?
R0MvPD1kScdLPndSwXYT
null
null
null
null
5e6tdltyfpt
false
HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gFPP5Z6rRPdPLcwZmqt5c1tTo6Q2", "label": "saulmunn", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Conflux
xMX9CGMBDVGQACZJyRJC
public
contract
1,718,225,190,389
will-there-be-a-manifest-2024
Conflux
https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17
Will there be a Manifest in 2024?
null
0.99
85.202553
NO
null
dzats15d8gq
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You've inspired me to create this market:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, ...
singer
EmsBAf19VL7CVDhsM9A5
public
contract
1,718,225,246,102
if-another-carrington-event-occurre
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, what percent of the US population would still be alive after 6 months?
5cn4p4snmsp
null
265.077509
YES
00s2mg866d
i4ljvqsii9k
false
X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Keenen W
gffoEWwKUc5NIG4cYgZH
public
contract
1,718,225,361,209
will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at
KeenenW
https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb
Will Trump and Biden shake hands at the first debate in June?
null
null
null
null
null
uhjppoxqa7d
false
nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Mhm", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
TSLABull
7z9NwUEcQroggIzAKHX5
public
contract
1,718,225,369,876
will-i-fly-to-new-mexico-to-buy-chi
MolbyDick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXY86BCu6RTvqG8yEFc5Y7D_S97tCf20jO2Z8tVPKaaUqG14DA9PLqiLMFEeMfNIZqYYE4tIzI_BrVccd4GjslXsd5xpRxNHEYntNGm2gIyorhNQXCFWaGveqVbopCKtvW8Hxom_b74OxRgIK95auugOa5P56HIijcmp8zUBmze5fHo3g0ex4yJjnK3v7cvgEOF25_-TG4N8zJWXs8h_RcZDoDOKDs__GbJIprrIRmH0xBPqyMPjM6JiRSy1sfS72DHbE53wywXJmkbjC8pw3F...
Will I fly to New Mexico to buy chilis at Costco and cook @billga's Green Chile Stew before Souper Tuesday 2032?
null
null
null
null
null
8p4e8twuqe
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Bruno
AIFQd0IOCEiEphD2sfeM
public
contract
1,718,225,489,438
which-country-will-be-the-first-to-a02ed879d608
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Which country will be the first to have a transgender head of state?
kxqfx1mmqof
null
null
null
null
4hgix4p1sy6
false
HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "a little ruined bc of people knowing the answers + selection bias (but it was a fun story / experience, and Michael did a great job). I'm planning to r...
Conflux
IPBVC154XoObftslKu3D
public
contract
1,718,225,504,012
which-session-at-manifest-2024-will
Conflux
https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17
Which session at Manifest 2024 will be Manifold’s favorite? [ADD RESPONSES]
b3bul6bn8zp
null
1,858.656973
YES
gg0zeviywl
3ty4c2u3k99
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Which market was that?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
ViwjLO1DtSprQqbHwOOt
public
contract
1,718,225,602,609
will-manifold-introduce-a-mechanism-a21e5ee4f7d5
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will manifold introduce a mechanism for retroactive market closure in 2024?
5mDPpsoO8LbmjONzGXd8
null
null
null
null
xwvqucca4yt
false
bAaEkYUZ7aRDTFXVae420yZC3Uf2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Very similar market ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, ...
Jeremy Gillen
pO1w7LXGbxiVBchKyb6A
public
contract
1,718,225,621,864
when-will-the-first-agi-company-get
JeremyGillen
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu-QOUaQP_9D4IaUiXWuA59UEQHOa1F83MNP28bMKQ=s96-c
When will the first AGI company get nationalized?
null
null
null
null
null
44zf4uvtmpl
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There will be interesting incentives if the children find this market ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
Joshua
UeP9u7hnQNG8bMzEuf12
public
contract
1,718,225,721,191
are-the-pronatalist-couple-good-par
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Are the pronatalist couple good parents?
null
null
null
null
null
ujf9aefmtgh
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Bruno
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,718,225,771,531
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
fksj2rfstpr
null
2.759356
YES
16df8c8459d1
6aq32wa3tqd
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe if you try dating other women you'll end up liking some of them ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
Benjamin Ikuta
VBqLSfQJQJJIDcqQE2cp
public
contract
1,718,225,858,076
will-i-have-a-girlfriend-before-i-t
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Will I have a girlfriend before I turn 35, and if so how will we meet?
0rbvxkfkuzni
null
null
null
null
vht43nixzwq
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Eliza
ViwjLO1DtSprQqbHwOOt
public
contract
1,718,226,054,801
will-manifold-introduce-a-mechanism-a21e5ee4f7d5
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Will manifold introduce a mechanism for retroactive market closure in 2024?
5mDPpsoO8LbmjONzGXd8
0.337206
16.04764
YES
null
q2pzvqjnq3
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Congrats!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { ...
singer
KiVRt189JWbSD33jMHLK
public
contract
1,718,226,066,657
will-i-solve-a-project-euler-task-b
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
Will I solve a Project Euler task before the end of June?
u2vim9eebe9
1
1,875.524363
NO
null
k81omok8dj
false
cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This was close but the official transcript provides plausible intended words and I said I'd be generous.", "type": "text" } ],...
lukres
jBOGTxxRwNWX7AWvquND
public
contract
1,718,226,154,859
which-candidates-will-ramble-incohe
lukres
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2
Which candidates will ramble incoherently ahead of the 2024 election?
null
null
99.952514
YES
01b447ddb1b8
lkiirlqo7v
false
5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "not necessarily but u can arb it", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ismellpillows
BvTK6G4LTEXpKCcWqASO
public
contract
1,718,226,303,377
will-tslabull-be-profitable-on-his
ismellpillows
https://firebasestorage.…d2d-d6578fd4939a
Will TSLABull be profitable on his TSLA market?
n1q3hm1bzv
0.16
404.242804
YES
null
yj7mwbhhbfd
false
PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "@traders The update will be released soon! (Or be delayed, who knows). Place your bets!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "pa...
CyfralCoot
l6u8krLxwMazidXcOxYC
public
contract
1,718,226,362,006
what-would-happen-in-minecraft-121
CyfralCoot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c
What would happen in Minecraft 1.21? [Add answers]
null
null
443.630136
NO
ce782e65090c
npgo3b422h9
false
LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "-", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
becauseyoudo
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,718,226,595,228
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
becauseyoudo
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbecauseyoudo%2F0GXbVCpNNX.bmp?alt=media&token=d5558412-2de1-47d7-ad36-a44a43748531
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
5ki3wekpv17
null
4,698.609157
YES
51e4cacd136a
z1o2cgaf93p
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Here are the closing prices. It didn't quite happen today, but it could happen soon: ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "para...
Timothy Johnson
sFLTrrt9vVkquBti85Nu
public
contract
1,718,226,609,988
will-apple-surpass-microsoft-in-mar
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will Apple surpass Microsoft in market capitalization in 2024?
b0djmwg0b3f
null
null
null
null
ldsgcdzgj
false
TDQ5ul4JMeT3adsuL5AVEJouPmA3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Wes Reisen
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,718,226,830,787
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
WesReisen
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXsC2gXE2ngsbbfLGX5xA7v7Tm9nH2PO6nGrP1BxEa4cpaQ9ji=s96-c
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
null
null
null
null
null
8y68z4jqela
false
9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "June 12: EZ wore blue today", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
dusty
xKRb2Kosg55IYmOOemiT
public
contract
1,718,226,957,751
during-the-days-in-june-when-i-see
stardust2
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbVZGqMvxy1yq6xJgCSUCR789Lgb1aMulLxZKUs4nPmsaEWg=s96-c
During the days in June when I see EZ, which color of suit jacket will EZ wear the most frequently?
null
null
9.542276
YES
oxicc5pbxx