id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2
classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2
values | commentType stringclasses 1
value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2
values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
l7wnooxtwxb | false | 5HePnhyzZSfvY9OS0jcOCpazdjj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "They unbanned Sneako they should definitely be willing to unban Destiny. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}... | Elijah Williams | 18HRXo2LWzDqizrj8FEY | public | contract | 1,718,287,143,299 | will-destiny-get-unbanned-from-twit-df967649e5f8 | ElijahWilliams | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ1DcSVSfPH0V7vy5cmR143y8p0Zt2p7OlmCqj-wXSD=s96-c | Will Destiny get unbanned from Twitch before October 2024? | null | 0.200867 | 220.89419 | YES | null |
wz5kw40ynlk | false | 8DSVFmhmsQZ9GOYcwsm7wXWkChj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "They would need to add another Link's Awakening worth of new content for a remake to count",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": ... | Frogswap | WgM8sciecvUaVCKoerdq | public | contract | 1,718,287,709,975 | will-a-new-2d-zelda-game-be-announc | Frogswap | Will a new 2D Zelda game be announced before 2027? | rtso3uyw64f | null | null | null | null | |
heedf2yba5f | false | 8NNAyStqvISBvH7Uao1WnDXc8Ql1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Mind sharing whats the case judged?+)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Martin Vlach | N0Y6Ae0X1Hs4DMakSCGA | public | contract | 1,718,287,721,280 | will-i-get-out-of-jury-duty-within | MartinVlach | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkhkG2hLiwj7KQeyaj8Ro9f7WYf6KiFP8yUnreT=s96-c | Will I get out of Jury Duty within 2 days? | null | null | null | null | null |
ytcrmjk6iks | false | ybGrV1mQatTS2hxTYpn9VD5cOvp2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yes, this seems like a premature resolution. I even bought some NO at 99%, specifically because shareholders are allowed to change their vote until the... | Ansgar Dietrichs | fDI1wfsh6SeZdYOOPq6p | public | contract | 1,718,287,724,529 | will-tesla-shareholders-vote-to-giv | ansgar | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZS2dZJoiRXRwiXxQrLFjPbcKsGjUKS3shf1AzktFw=s96-c | Will Tesla shareholders vote to give Musk a $56 billion retroactive pay package in June 13th shareholder vote? | v695zny9fc | null | null | null | null |
itpb83bgpk | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "2 icecreams",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kongo Landwalker | ibHIgOcXryMUljeCrqFW | public | contract | 1,718,287,980,288 | kongos-personal-summer-fun-multimar | KongoLandwalker | Kongo's personal summer fun multimarket | null | null | null | null | null | |
1y8fz0654g | false | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "He's deleted and reactivated twice previously, so I'm buying YES.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
... | Michael Wheatley | MLkFNWvFveodoJVGAmbQ | public | contract | 1,718,287,991,724 | will-bowser-reactivate-his-xtwitter | MichaelWheatley | Will Bowser (@browserdotsys) reactivate his X/Twitter account before the end of 2026? | quie97l7i7 | 0.816512 | 2,855.242712 | YES | null | |
1rbo6qsajdxi | false | KNqZAiItmVTCX0LzUcj8Twg7tnh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | snazzlePop | auR5E826ycmc8eyklAcM | public | contract | 1,718,288,244,722 | will-valve-announce-halflife-3-port | snazzlePop | Will Valve announce Half-Life 3, Portal 3, Left 4 Dead 3, or Team Fortress 3 during Not-E3? [Before June 13th] | null | 0.01101 | 1,073.732474 | NO | null | |
f6h517xm946 | false | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Any suggestions? the lists aren't meant to be exhaustive this early on. We have 40ish years to refine them.",
"type": "text"
}
... | Michael Wheatley | UeP9u7hnQNG8bMzEuf12 | public | contract | 1,718,288,276,067 | are-the-pronatalist-couple-good-par | MichaelWheatley | Are the pronatalist couple good parents? | 9xk36sntc7 | 0.476323 | 437.559324 | YES | null | |
m4lfnsvjy | false | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2",
"label": "dglid",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | AVS | t0wz2JdWIuef4R8Jb4b4 | public | contract | 1,718,288,334,251 | will-the-us-require-and-verify-repo | AVS | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026? | 65da0r9ys3d | 0.99 | 2,084.474886 | YES | null |
xtv4wxj1gkh | false | 5vEowFr3rBPiRMtqc8UPhqpbHWh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Reversed. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type... | Matt Lashof-Sullivan | 89jFXgvSqjh5BQbXn081 | public | contract | 1,718,288,366,739 | will-scouts-affirm-in-vidal-v-elste | MattLashofSullivan | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLS04zSTXXFhgB1eacAIEE9U0EH4jKv5V55bjuYL9e-FHw=s96-c | Will SCOTUS affirm in Vidal v. Elster (trademarks criticizing public figures vs the 1st Amendment)? | null | 0.235603 | 518.041785 | NO | null |
ajveh01ext | false | qIjH5KDOG9WVsa3265yCTICxHjx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "clearly this is important for society",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Qoiuoiuoiu | V4gbzGDHdhNHuFWjtxZe | public | contract | 1,718,288,394,382 | which-predictions-on-manifold-are-t | Qoiuoiuoiu | Which predictions on Manifold are the most important for society (at scale) to be calibrated on? | null | null | 81.35005 | NO | ihrdqeetgn | |
oqzfs0qakod | false | kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "it's obviously not a finetune lol",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Josh | Y2CPJhbh0k3gxdrhMzVy | public | contract | 1,718,288,606,145 | what-will-the-lineage-of-gpt4o-be-k | JoshYou | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrixn6xEvkjfMSbEWA2GPpmp3AC9OrViaQcFQglzg=s96-c | What will the lineage of GPT-4o be known to be at the end of 2024? | null | null | 289.647181 | NO | 012092c71550 |
poumbfsdyz | false | 1RfsLVzFZwaLLXGaSr5yaG5ink23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "That's what im saying! Everyone buy more YES, please guys I need more free mana",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"... | duN | 18HRXo2LWzDqizrj8FEY | public | contract | 1,718,288,841,565 | will-destiny-get-unbanned-from-twit-df967649e5f8 | dgga | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdgga%2F_HQHzw0yrx.0?alt=media&token=b8a7e5fb-51e0-49fa-b18c-463f38fe9ecc | Will Destiny get unbanned from Twitch before October 2024? | l7wnooxtwxb | 0.228928 | 32,258.037298 | NO | null |
osz5yzx3uw | false | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Reopen please?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mark Hamill | mY8eR7W0O3iALtUT66JN | public | contract | 1,718,288,961,632 | how-will-the-supreme-court-decide-t | MarkHamill | How will the Supreme Court split in the Trump immunity case? | null | null | 776.063498 | YES | 91e64ef624cb | |
kb90nvzrxm | false | qIjH5KDOG9WVsa3265yCTICxHjx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think that sounds fair...",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Qoiuoiuoiu | Lg3p94BIaroWP5A0c0Sf | public | contract | 1,718,289,233,869 | is-this-real-gpt45 | Qoiuoiuoiu | Is gpt2-chatbot OpenAI's next-generation model (e.g. GPT-4.5, GPT-5, etc.) | wimge4p4kkk | 0.197797 | 46.888914 | YES | null | |
oo81kkzuh1k | false | v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I wouldn't say it prevents it. Not sure what it would mean to 'prevent it'. At the end of the day it is really just a machine that asks T/F questions... | Krantz | v2ldtBJkt0vnN8Fx7uG4 | public | contract | 1,718,289,248,135 | is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha | Krantz | Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival? | v66he6qbjc | 0.555649 | 16,421.362073 | YES | null | |
sk59c827oe9 | false | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If the \"systems checks\" are extended for an extra day, then the answer is ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
... | Steve Sokolowski | dVzTwJWK5U7fclT7XChz | public | contract | 1,718,289,323,469 | will-the-boeing-starliner-abort-the | SteveSokolowski | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | Will the Boeing Starliner that launched on June 5 encounter major, mission-changing problems? | pi8jdr6tlwf | 0.654697 | 300.749634 | YES | null |
4q8oluqzr3 | false | 8dboiK130XNESzFh0uztbNkfcxa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ugh shoot - mods feel free to unresolve",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Will | fDI1wfsh6SeZdYOOPq6p | public | contract | 1,718,289,342,189 | will-tesla-shareholders-vote-to-giv | wrhall | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLy8Q3CWCvkDqnporNAUQ-xDxOZHF8NzmJa32mXx3Dw5kDlqRfw=s96-c | Will Tesla shareholders vote to give Musk a $56 billion retroactive pay package in June 13th shareholder vote? | v695zny9fc | 1 | 117.68062 | YES | null |
zidoqehwabr | false | NpMMO5jy1BajObWxUgg9Nk5Wstg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2",
"label": "SirCryptomind",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "ment... | Teddy Weverka | fDI1wfsh6SeZdYOOPq6p | public | contract | 1,718,289,397,494 | will-tesla-shareholders-vote-to-giv | TeddyWeverka | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYs8wz6ugEqvtxofXIdn-8Bg2zz_nRePvJR5pGuVw=s96-c | Will Tesla shareholders vote to give Musk a $56 billion retroactive pay package in June 13th shareholder vote? | v695zny9fc | 1 | 199.251895 | NO | null |
gmwsn8e9919 | false | qIjH5KDOG9WVsa3265yCTICxHjx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "@pinkink inactive",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Qoiuoiuoiu | sXRZDJFPp3X4TmTgIGTz | public | contract | 1,718,289,460,513 | will-bts-get-back-together-after-se | Qoiuoiuoiu | Will BTS get back together after serving in the army? | null | 0.649715 | 14.152187 | YES | null | |
nbs3mbmvru | false | 8dboiK130XNESzFh0uztbNkfcxa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Fwiw there are other similar bets linked in comments, but that doesn't help if you want to sell",
"type": "text"
}
],
"ty... | Will | fDI1wfsh6SeZdYOOPq6p | public | contract | 1,718,289,463,506 | will-tesla-shareholders-vote-to-giv | wrhall | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLy8Q3CWCvkDqnporNAUQ-xDxOZHF8NzmJa32mXx3Dw5kDlqRfw=s96-c | Will Tesla shareholders vote to give Musk a $56 billion retroactive pay package in June 13th shareholder vote? | v695zny9fc | 1 | 117.68062 | YES | null |
fd6nnwld2ra | false | ek4n4FkBuxe7AjEhSdAFSimhKvC2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3",
"label": "Tripping",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Mitchell Butler | MM3NHgK520AT83wOEvh4 | public | contract | 1,718,289,512,759 | who-will-be-the-prime-minister-of-c | MitchellButler | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte30v_4rm8vrqdTDnxiwcmZRjU5zT23VDYj4eiX2P74ynU=s96-c | Who will be the Prime Minister of Canada at some point in their life? | null | null | null | null | null |
cvvhxtqjiy | false | nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Lmao",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | TSLABull | hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh | public | contract | 1,718,289,514,401 | what-will-be-true-of-the-tsla-88-ma | MolbyDick | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXY86BCu6RTvqG8yEFc5Y7D_S97tCf20jO2Z8tVPKaaUqG14DA9PLqiLMFEeMfNIZqYYE4tIzI_BrVccd4GjslXsd5xpRxNHEYntNGm2gIyorhNQXCFWaGveqVbopCKtvW8Hxom_b74OxRgIK95auugOa5P56HIijcmp8zUBmze5fHo3g0ex4yJjnK3v7cvgEOF25_-TG4N8zJWXs8h_RcZDoDOKDs__GbJIprrIRmH0xBPqyMPjM6JiRSy1sfS72DHbE53wywXJmkbjC8pw3F... | What will be true of the TSLA 8/8 market by the time it closes? | null | null | null | null | null |
plb1wqeuj0c | false | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Not completely inactive - not sure what the criteria for mod resolution are.... Maybe I am just inpatient...",
"type": "text"
}
... | Martin Modrák | KWZC3r9XnsqQkM7O8Jkj | public | contract | 1,718,289,573,845 | will-joe-biden-get-under-88-of-the | MartinModrak | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c | Will Joe Biden get under 88% of the vote in any of these states in the 2024 Democratic Primary? | hvgboisc3kt | null | 381.69656 | YES | 4f33c0be6f5b |
pwhegrr98ss | false | B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Most people's ELO on lichess is about 200 higher than on ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content":... | Elliot Davies | ckXjJM5798ndk6IsL6c7 | public | contract | 1,718,289,799,925 | will-i-get-a-chess-rating-of-1000-i | ElliotDavies | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c | Will I get a chess rating of 1000+ in 2024? | 8amw93mu6c | 0.62373 | 452.540479 | YES | null |
41fwuqadb2r | false | K8jsLB1HyDhqhYYdLpEreYenWsa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Jack | 0akh4e7OyX0HrAkGfFSY | public | contract | 1,718,289,925,703 | will-gorosei-vs-giant-robot-happen | FROGMANIA | Will Gorosei vs. Giant Robot happen in chapter 1117? | null | 1 | 102.780188 | NO | null | |
2cqsey6kxdp | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "KkkOzzBn5gY24VMddRZfecKnrEl1",
"label": "notrickspringfield",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": ... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | piPbVHoSFZx26pGtF36U | public | contract | 1,718,289,993,175 | what-will-happen-during-the-2024-pr | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | What will happen during the 2024 Presidential debate? (Add your answer) | null | null | 53.667099 | NO | eb982d2f6dd2 |
yajsdxo80eb | false | K8jsLB1HyDhqhYYdLpEreYenWsa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Jack | 8ZlU7PaI2BVoKLmAimIO | public | contract | 1,718,290,026,276 | will-tcb-scans-upload-chapter-1117 | FROGMANIA | Will TCB Scans upload chapter 1117 of One Piece on June 13th? | null | 0.7453 | 97.191702 | YES | null | |
vlq5icali | false | aT0xhM8JgiS51x23FlpDFp1gV6H3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is there any reliable source for data on this?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nathan Nguyen | uVcfNYFHJC9vnXvRUWTJ | public | contract | 1,718,290,090,502 | will-we-get-synthetic-hearts-before | NathanNguyen | Will we get synthetic hearts before 2035? | null | 0.62504 | 44.910345 | NO | null | |
730kzs8x3wv | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm confused by this market lol. Bad Boys 4 can already safely resolve NO, and people are betting it up. Inside Out 2 is going to easily blow past this... | Ziddletwix | BxfalLjZBYYUvPeNpFU7 | public | contract | 1,718,290,210,175 | after-furiosas-poor-opening-weekend | Ziddletwix | After Furiosa's poor opening weekend, will any of these upcoming movies flop this year? | null | null | 2,400.97626 | NO | 237b7854c49a | |
sea7a7kg7dg | false | B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Meanwhile I am awful at games below 10m - my brain is too slow ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"t... | Elliot Davies | ckXjJM5798ndk6IsL6c7 | public | contract | 1,718,290,323,351 | will-i-get-a-chess-rating-of-1000-i | ElliotDavies | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c | Will I get a chess rating of 1000+ in 2024? | k5uhp9jahjr | 0.62373 | 452.540479 | YES | null |
rgcwvu4lrdj | false | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Just started reading on this, but my gut is if it's not military it doesn't count to this question. To what I understand after reading the first few li... | Haws | Y38Ar69sB7o6CEksSGYr | public | contract | 1,718,290,340,536 | will-turkey-become-militarily-invol | Haws | Will Turkey become militarily involved in Gaza before the end of 2024? | n3swuj9yt4f | null | null | null | null | |
yh9kkhb9gi8 | false | fo7AD21YRgSSx2Uo58GA0w3wDES2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This should resolve to No",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Annie | 9vNxYQe20qLYVWIeg36U | public | contract | 1,718,290,537,809 | will-vibecamp-be-viebcamp | AnniePosting | Will Vibecamp be Viebcamp? | null | 0.375375 | 422.511569 | NO | null | |
j4fmdmj8bl | false | v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I recognize the concerns with whalebait. The motivation behind the question is genuine. The aim is to identify which 25 predictions Manifold users be... | Krantz | V4gbzGDHdhNHuFWjtxZe | public | contract | 1,718,290,601,178 | which-predictions-on-manifold-are-t | Krantz | Which predictions on Manifold are the most important for society (at scale) to be calibrated on? | i6w6q050no | null | 1,950.843897 | YES | 4qq6u0akyk | |
m8e8zn2138r | false | v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yes. The 25 entries with the highest likelihood will resolve yes on Jan 1st.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | Krantz | V4gbzGDHdhNHuFWjtxZe | public | contract | 1,718,290,796,019 | which-predictions-on-manifold-are-t | Krantz | Which predictions on Manifold are the most important for society (at scale) to be calibrated on? | mvlv49oom7q | null | 1,950.843897 | YES | 4qq6u0akyk | |
1pp7bn3k3iv | false | H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | MP | 94BJVmTmifmJ84nVFWPg | public | contract | 1,718,290,822,076 | when-will-the-federal-reserve-enter | MP | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf | When will the Federal Reserve entertain tapering or stopping the asset selling program (QT)? | null | null | null | null | null |
huqd9jum0uj | false | TIxZM2CkXrVafA9OnTLLpSo1W0s2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I do not think a second term of Biden would be good (I think a second term of Biden would lead to a gigantic escalation in the global conflicts, likely... | riverwalk3 | 4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F | public | contract | 1,718,290,955,013 | will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres | riverwalk3 | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | s13xzt2qzv8 | 0.474003 | 1,432.5143 | YES | null | |
q3l51nza6s | false | WwlOiDUSRQaKR4mPACCIUjryr0o2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yes.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pi | i4vr0mPBbyry6Yt7zynz | public | contract | 1,718,290,978,955 | will-i-gain-a-romantic-partner-at-v | mudPi314 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfLz-CeU4IpWRnFKzCpd_ZtPr8drrF-Ay9ky60GQxPyWA=s96-c | Will I gain a romantic partner at vibecamp? | ru5vrycslha | null | null | null | null |
zfar8rtrye | false | WwlOiDUSRQaKR4mPACCIUjryr0o2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Don't goodhart my good heart",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pi | i4vr0mPBbyry6Yt7zynz | public | contract | 1,718,291,006,510 | will-i-gain-a-romantic-partner-at-v | mudPi314 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfLz-CeU4IpWRnFKzCpd_ZtPr8drrF-Ay9ky60GQxPyWA=s96-c | Will I gain a romantic partner at vibecamp? | ru5vrycslha | null | null | null | null |
zl7x4teaor | false | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "--",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | SirCryptomind | fDI1wfsh6SeZdYOOPq6p | public | contract | 1,718,291,024,063 | will-tesla-shareholders-vote-to-giv | SirCryptomind | Will Tesla shareholders vote to give Musk a $56 billion retroactive pay package in June 13th shareholder vote? | null | null | null | null | null | |
qg0qmclwcg | false | jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Refurbishment time (along with a requirement that 90% or whatever of the object is re-used) is probably a descent proxy for economically practical re-u... | Jess Riedel | bgWoCzR7WR8YiXlvHhha | public | contract | 1,718,291,202,861 | which-booster-will-fly-30-times-fir | JessRiedel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c | Which booster will fly 30 times first? | null | null | null | null | null |
qqepqlgqn1j | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If Trump could stay on message instead of going on weird tangents about being eaten by sharks he wouldn't be Trump ",
"type": "text"
... | Shaked Koplewitz | 4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F | public | contract | 1,718,291,366,297 | will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | s13xzt2qzv8 | 0.474003 | 1,416.17781 | NO | null |
j4m2ly62msb | false | tNQuBL6vsShm46bi4ciIWxcMTmR2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Betting no as a \"consequentialist\" because of selection effects in academic moral philosophy.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"ty... | Dan Wahl | U58F4yslZBAlHAOsHKID | public | contract | 1,718,291,386,298 | will-philosophers-accept-or-lean-to | danwahl | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgpFG6w5nCTVIWbmd0_EhZ6lXLCOqTqkRhS8L0T7P4=s96-c | Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached? | null | 0.551351 | 226.420464 | NO | null |
l6dur9mdb0d | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | RemNi | uVcfNYFHJC9vnXvRUWTJ | public | contract | 1,718,291,458,516 | will-we-get-synthetic-hearts-before | RemNi | Will we get synthetic hearts before 2035? | vlq5icali | 0.516859 | 51.657604 | YES | null | |
sj3bihwldvh | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Still early days, but think over 1000 have been implanted so far. However, many of them don't last 12 months.",
"type": "text"
}
... | RemNi | uVcfNYFHJC9vnXvRUWTJ | public | contract | 1,718,291,494,465 | will-we-get-synthetic-hearts-before | RemNi | Will we get synthetic hearts before 2035? | vlq5icali | 0.516859 | 51.657604 | YES | null | |
169537uqbam | false | TIxZM2CkXrVafA9OnTLLpSo1W0s2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2",
"label": "ShakedKoplewitz",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "me... | riverwalk3 | 4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F | public | contract | 1,718,291,582,900 | will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres | riverwalk3 | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | s13xzt2qzv8 | 0.474003 | 1,432.5143 | YES | null | |
gmfmjp3r3q | false | PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Fell to 6th place",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | CyfralCoot | 8v2lO3SK2Ge6BkrSoaoa | public | contract | 1,718,291,742,251 | will-i-promote-to-diamond-league-th | CyfralCoot | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c | Will I promote to 💎 Diamond league 💎 this month? | null | null | null | null | null |
laclzo22keo | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | RemNi | E9rDNoCpjkX3KjGFuJMx | public | contract | 1,718,291,761,644 | xi-jinping-is-the-highest-leader-of | RemNi | Xi Jinping is the highest leader of China in 2036 | null | null | null | null | null | |
0ejo8xciwme | false | bzaLzQXeU3NwzawClYtJkNxc5fj1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This sounds like a guy who is running in '28 to me. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null... | Daniel | A7fYbwvQcKaMDliixfYR | public | contract | 1,718,291,786,342 | will-jb-pritzker-run-for-president | DanielRohrer | Will JB Pritzker run for President in 2028? | null | 0.25898 | 553.317981 | YES | null | |
risdojmxnpe | false | bzaLzQXeU3NwzawClYtJkNxc5fj1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "related ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
... | Daniel | c8Uh02nyk7uRM4qI9xlG | public | contract | 1,718,291,859,280 | will-aoc-run-for-president-in-2028 | DanielRohrer | Will AOC run for president in 2028? | null | null | null | null | null | |
j52unm3fkag | false | PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The update came out!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | CyfralCoot | y9ebb8HzD3YMKvcsdgT5 | public | contract | 1,718,292,056,779 | in-which-month-minecraft-121-java-e | CyfralCoot | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c | In which month Minecraft 1.21 Java edition will come out? | null | null | 258.066394 | NO | 0908cbddb81d |
879qoc0bulm | false | jfaeGZZWDZaaTNyPhSmQr1LFt112 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yes, he has to be an author of it",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Maxim Lott | dOWXDI1HVZzvXbeHrmrH | public | contract | 1,718,292,133,960 | will-winds-of-winter-hit-bookstores-y8ifde0y3j | MaximLott | Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030? | hhibmwjid1c | null | null | null | null | |
jto0dkf8wn | false | BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Does it have to be started by Manifold?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
... | For Truth | Y2Un0mYGEyFDNRT4mJqY | public | contract | 1,718,292,215,364 | will-there-be-a-womanifoldmarkets-b | ForTruth | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c | Will there be a womanifold.markets before 2025? | null | null | null | null | null |
47j47k9k9fg | false | jfaeGZZWDZaaTNyPhSmQr1LFt112 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "A co-author is allowed. As long as he is an author.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
... | Maxim Lott | dOWXDI1HVZzvXbeHrmrH | public | contract | 1,718,292,255,499 | will-winds-of-winter-hit-bookstores-y8ifde0y3j | MaximLott | Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030? | hhibmwjid1c | null | null | null | null | |
ikewlnk1i7 | false | jfaeGZZWDZaaTNyPhSmQr1LFt112 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If he drops dead, I would still wait to resolve it, since they may publish what he has posthumously",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | Maxim Lott | dOWXDI1HVZzvXbeHrmrH | public | contract | 1,718,292,305,269 | will-winds-of-winter-hit-bookstores-y8ifde0y3j | MaximLott | Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030? | hhibmwjid1c | null | null | null | null | |
7rce85hjhm | false | BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Curiously, you don't say ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
... | For Truth | vtj0N86CVH7fMCcuQM80 | public | contract | 1,718,292,967,976 | if-another-carrington-event-happens | ForTruth | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c | If another Carrington Event happens, will I be able to resolve this? | null | null | null | null | null |
291y0x12b83 | false | XeQf3ygmrGM1MxdsE3JSlmq8vL42 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2",
"label": "Soli",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Jacy | qKZnUG5ZWu1BzkeKcB34 | public | contract | 1,718,293,035,518 | will-dalle-3-consistently-generate-822e0ace6fa0 | Jacy | Will DALL-E 3+ consistently generate accurate images from the prompt "yellow ocean, blue sand" before 2025? | kgwqmn22pq | 0.53 | 9,068.378096 | NO | null | |
aut1uii590o | false | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Superficially it looks like the last few Singapore presidents were all from the same party, so probably not, but I can’t tell for sure without studying... | Oleg Eterevsky | VpMf0NXvPxzrdqnlInKR | public | contract | 1,718,293,097,227 | when-will-peaceful-democratic-trans | OlegEterevsky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | When will peaceful democratic transition of power happen in Russia for the first time? | ujffcs1khkc | null | null | null | null |
yh9zgw56el | false | BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The thing is, a storm would likely only knock out power. Most of the actual data would probably be perfectly fine. Getting the internet at least mostly... | For Truth | vtj0N86CVH7fMCcuQM80 | public | contract | 1,718,293,403,428 | if-another-carrington-event-happens | ForTruth | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c | If another Carrington Event happens, will I be able to resolve this? | 3124k1u11sz | null | null | null | null |
vp1vmyo5jyg | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This isn't a prize points market, so I won't be updating/tracking it very closely, but just for kicks, here's the journey of the RT score so far: ",
... | Ziddletwix | 0nQNqqtmwx2mFCDb2NQP | public | contract | 1,718,293,996,744 | will-inside-out-2-2024-have-a-rotte | Ziddletwix | Will "Inside Out 2" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%? | null | null | 1,193.215002 | YES | lau7jncbs7 | |
mfie9ob73qc | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "His term doesn't end on 2026-12-31.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"co... | Bruno | uQyA5AxOUy2uF2uewXBh | public | contract | 1,718,293,996,753 | will-lula-finish-his-term-as-presid | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will Lula finish his term as President of Brazil? | null | null | null | null | null |
nsb605y3f0c | false | rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "White House to nominate Goldsmith Romero soon, aiming ... | Maurice Bransfield | uQ8BcLodofdNVerNG1Ne | public | contract | 1,718,294,065,558 | who-will-biden-nominate-to-be-the-n | MauriceBransfield | Who will Biden nominate to be the next Commissioner of the FDIC? | null | null | null | null | null | |
kj9pf1fv69 | false | kao73g2es1T46wMoskeGoCSO0KI2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "if sufficiently many No shares have been bought, you can buy & resolve Yes to become a billionaire",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | Jörn | seqOxXPWi10KSWvMMoI2 | public | contract | 1,718,294,296,828 | will-i-be-the-worlds-youngest-billi | Joern | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6Z93xvS1kGC7v3fAQmA1DUaiVZoaIMJKtg2xhJ=s96-c | Will I be the world's youngest billionaire by the end of 2025? | null | null | null | null | null |
jtwzcbovfvr | false | B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Looks like the ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
... | Elliot Davies | cK2icBVQP8Q67M0PFyuN | public | contract | 1,718,294,382,892 | will-an-f35-be-lost-by-the-us-in-20-25e1f4ac3c24 | ElliotDavies | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c | Will an F-35 be lost by the US in 2025 | null | null | null | null | null |
6hflxcy0lx9 | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It’s important for only spending the liquidity subsidy on bets that happen before the event. Also the maybe the subsidizer should get to choose a pri... | Jonathan Ray | ViwjLO1DtSprQqbHwOOt | public | contract | 1,718,294,609,888 | will-manifold-introduce-a-mechanism-a21e5ee4f7d5 | JonathanRay | Will manifold introduce a mechanism for retroactive market closure in 2024? | kx0avrinw8e | 0.524624 | 61.884168 | NO | null | |
rn210dlo6i | false | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How do you do this and also remove N/A as a resolution though",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"typ... | jackson polack | ViwjLO1DtSprQqbHwOOt | public | contract | 1,718,294,903,482 | will-manifold-introduce-a-mechanism-a21e5ee4f7d5 | jacksonpolack | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | Will manifold introduce a mechanism for retroactive market closure in 2024? | kx0avrinw8e | null | null | null | null |
xex6tl8l0dj | false | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1",
"label": "FairlyRandom",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | Traveel | gpJ2a0HV93TFZrWNX9Gk | public | contract | 1,718,294,918,868 | daily-coinflip-537a93i1a4 | Traveel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | Daily coinflip | null | 0.51 | 46.119982 | YES | null |
65y2rryuwq6 | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Not a valid request: No range specified. Try ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
... | FairlyRandom | gpJ2a0HV93TFZrWNX9Gk | public | contract | 1,718,294,924,031 | daily-coinflip-537a93i1a4 | FairlyRandom | Daily coinflip | null | null | null | null | null | |
vuttj38dvw | false | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1",
"label": "FairlyRandom",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | Traveel | gpJ2a0HV93TFZrWNX9Gk | public | contract | 1,718,294,977,342 | daily-coinflip-537a93i1a4 | Traveel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | Daily coinflip | null | 0.51 | 46.119982 | YES | null |
i3fxgstskx | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | FairlyRandom | gpJ2a0HV93TFZrWNX9Gk | public | contract | 1,718,294,982,134 | daily-coinflip-537a93i1a4 | FairlyRandom | Daily coinflip | null | null | null | null | null | |
waw1f0utqu | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | FairlyRandom | gpJ2a0HV93TFZrWNX9Gk | public | contract | 1,718,295,033,315 | daily-coinflip-537a93i1a4 | FairlyRandom | Daily coinflip | null | null | null | null | null | |
231v8jvdudp | false | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "oH5VPkX7C7S10GxkFb1VHqFgB0C2",
"label": "bitters",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Semiotic Rivalry | mY8eR7W0O3iALtUT66JN | public | contract | 1,718,295,039,292 | how-will-the-supreme-court-decide-t | SemioticRivalry | How will the Supreme Court split in the Trump immunity case? | k2cfiqevtw | null | 0 | YES | 6560328de083 | |
68eo2lkz2ud | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ah thanks for pointing that out! Sorry if mine is a duplicate—in my defense, browse was down when I was creating the market so tbh I couldn't check if ... | Ziddletwix | T0XibwWms8dqDg9yCE2L | public | contract | 1,718,295,198,086 | french-snap-legislative-2024-rn-has-aqs7915bd9 | Ziddletwix | [French snap legislative 2024] RN has absolute majority (including in electoral union with other parties) | srmlfrlio9 | 0.251269 | 355.103069 | YES | null | |
1yoey233tu3 | false | ZpCwr0h6XQMjdZhXZnWuToxNRQQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Looks like he was quite subtle in his threats, to the point where he hasn't directly threatened to leave yet:",
"type": "text"
},
... | Tom | HMEMp6lFm6ZKrsynV6Xk | public | contract | 1,718,295,326,914 | would-elon-musk-threaten-to-leave-t | gpt4 | Would Elon Musk Threaten to leave Tesla in by end of June? | null | null | null | null | null | |
zfbuc34bi5a | false | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Dan | 8Up5Fete5pibl3970vK0 | public | contract | 1,718,295,497,327 | will-a-crystal-market-with-m1000000 | DanMan314 | Will a non-coinflip "Crystal" market with Ṁ1,000,000 of initial liquidity be created by the end of July? | hynwiuclf3w | null | null | null | null | |
1clj0hguv3i | false | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "No problem, I'm happy to have a market to trade on without any hint of resolution conflict of interest. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | Camille | T0XibwWms8dqDg9yCE2L | public | contract | 1,718,295,514,007 | french-snap-legislative-2024-rn-has-aqs7915bd9 | CamillePerrin | [French snap legislative 2024] RN has absolute majority (including in electoral union with other parties) | srmlfrlio9 | null | null | null | null | |
n9p5jpfvmjh | false | tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "There are currently 3 Falcon 9 boosters with 20+ flights, all of which are less than 4 years old. So one of them will probably reach 30 in 2-3 years un... | Multicore | bgWoCzR7WR8YiXlvHhha | public | contract | 1,718,295,596,202 | which-booster-will-fly-30-times-fir | Multicore | Which booster will fly 30 times first? | null | null | 146.764993 | YES | 9f263745afdd | |
xz78bt6cnvm | false | oSyhdaaBLYgR3tLXoGgKJzDTxtL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "And my bets are all based on ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2",
... | Hazel | qKZnUG5ZWu1BzkeKcB34 | public | contract | 1,718,295,607,626 | will-dalle-3-consistently-generate-822e0ace6fa0 | Hazel | Will DALL-E 3+ consistently generate accurate images from the prompt "yellow ocean, blue sand" before 2025? | kgwqmn22pq | 0.53 | 5,672.796698 | YES | null | |
c1xuh250hh | false | d6La9emHJsTwmxPOZ2UdSYrlr6I3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If AGI doesn't try to kill us, how will you determine whether it is powerful enough to have done so?",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | jcb | Nn6FkHrTXofTT2PjD27t | public | contract | 1,718,295,673,379 | if-we-survive-general-artificial-in-z3suausl60 | jcb | If we survive general artificial intelligence before 2100, what will be the reason? | null | null | null | null | null | |
bedegtl64dt | false | JkH8Q9cPPjg9T4dFcz8wTXlLioX2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I never heard about this",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
... | Paulin | Np0LZdLtKZnWdCu3ZmFA | public | contract | 1,718,295,714,541 | what-will-be-true-of-the-new-harry | Ppau | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyWiZZQIP_FPeOhyNxw7ekUac8H2iGP1RFFb2tR=s96-c | What will be true of season 1 of the new Harry Potter reboot series? | of8kobep9hc | null | 58.385122 | YES | 67e1cb3ec117 |
trwlgc1idhi | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Potential compromise is N/A should only require a moderator if you’re re-resolving something that’s been resolved for weeks. That limits the value at ... | Jonathan Ray | ViwjLO1DtSprQqbHwOOt | public | contract | 1,718,295,744,184 | will-manifold-introduce-a-mechanism-a21e5ee4f7d5 | JonathanRay | Will manifold introduce a mechanism for retroactive market closure in 2024? | kx0avrinw8e | 0.562851 | 61.884168 | NO | null | |
7z9qg379oqt | false | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "retroactive n/a is also a risk for for instance arb bots, if one market does and another one doesn't",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | jackson polack | ViwjLO1DtSprQqbHwOOt | public | contract | 1,718,295,902,227 | will-manifold-introduce-a-mechanism-a21e5ee4f7d5 | jacksonpolack | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | Will manifold introduce a mechanism for retroactive market closure in 2024? | kx0avrinw8e | null | null | null | null |
8c1v0h6dlpv | false | XmAUlR95VBW12Fee6lES6eY9CRC3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "AFAIK a sentence in her description is saying that she has manly hands.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
... | Certainty of Victory | Np0LZdLtKZnWdCu3ZmFA | public | contract | 1,718,296,293,607 | what-will-be-true-of-the-new-harry | CertaintyOfVictory | What will be true of season 1 of the new Harry Potter reboot series? | of8kobep9hc | null | 0 | YES | a90582732c1e | |
imen5v1k1re | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Ziddletwix | K4jWKe6veFDuEWlsjl3f | public | contract | 1,718,296,414,958 | how-many-seats-will-marine-le-pens | Ziddletwix | How many seats will Marine Le Pen's National Rally party win in the 2024 French legislative elections? | null | null | 435.705353 | NO | id96wedn9a | |
vw9fajctkfr | false | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Antoine Dusséaux | nmzJ7dKG3Cg8fw3OSr9y | public | contract | 1,718,296,600,565 | which-of-the-following-promises-wil-e6474c75743f | adssx | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | Which of the following promises will be in the Labour party Manifesto? | null | null | null | null | null |
5jctom88dpu | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Iirc Hamas has been holding up the past few ?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | sNvW83UKz56mRDfUBvZQ | public | contract | 1,718,296,818,037 | will-there-be-an-israelhamas-ceasef-9d4386c2f0ad | strutheo | Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of July 4th? | 1r4zxjavp14 | null | null | null | null | |
te4o674ldoi | false | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I would definitely place more limit orders with this feature! Big fan of the idea. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragr... | Carson Gale | 5nqgo5GLYQByKqcMgjdA | public | contract | 1,718,296,818,427 | will-we-add-periodicfilling-limit-o | CarsonGale | Will we add periodic-filling limit orders in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
mvng6ckhc6l | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What terms did Israel want ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | sNvW83UKz56mRDfUBvZQ | public | contract | 1,718,296,850,675 | will-there-be-an-israelhamas-ceasef-9d4386c2f0ad | strutheo | Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of July 4th? | 1r4zxjavp14 | null | null | null | null | |
dx8t076vm1v | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "JkH8Q9cPPjg9T4dFcz8wTXlLioX2",
"label": "Ppau",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Bruno | Np0LZdLtKZnWdCu3ZmFA | public | contract | 1,718,296,956,192 | what-will-be-true-of-the-new-harry | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | What will be true of season 1 of the new Harry Potter reboot series? | of8kobep9hc | null | null | null | null |
iv6juz4q8bq | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I am pretty sure the difference is even bigger.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": nul... | Kongo Landwalker | ckXjJM5798ndk6IsL6c7 | public | contract | 1,718,297,122,485 | will-i-get-a-chess-rating-of-1000-i | KongoLandwalker | Will I get a chess rating of 1000+ in 2024? | 8amw93mu6c | 0.641006 | 106.723744 | NO | null | |
a9ymirc2kgr | false | wbXNSHyBlFb22U3jMxheKBoOXYn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I guess we should clarify if only closing prices count or if intra day also counts. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "parag... | Chris V | Z1GN0uwK9PbFMqGoZEs5 | public | contract | 1,718,297,176,680 | will-nvidias-share-price-break-2000 | voodoo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJvMxwuK2gMCy5Z5egEg2drhsz4s5lov7Jd_WwypFTydJw=s96-c | Will Nvidia's share price break $200 in 2024? | null | 0.274901 | 17,932.139524 | NO | null |
s56m6vrczn | false | KIwlElgsxgYoF5n2WttelP6Rt922 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2",
"label": "dwax",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | MrVgpo | 8ZlU7PaI2BVoKLmAimIO | public | contract | 1,718,297,242,938 | will-tcb-scans-upload-chapter-1117 | MrVgpo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJw52-uO7x4Aq2cxAkVLcnbQu4b73M1jXj7EQKCexAzRCkeyVs=s96-c | Will TCB Scans upload chapter 1117 of One Piece on June 13th? | null | 0.777652 | 0 | NO | null |
aw16ux1rjp | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2",
"label": "mint",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Bruno | Hizf0KOi7V8KLnF7bI5a | public | contract | 1,718,297,307,781 | how-accurately-will-manifold-predic | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | How accurately will Manifold predict the 2024 Presidential Election? | 4jc6zq53hq5 | null | null | null | null |
f1cfk6c4yhf | false | ZO9qSVVstZgzKNToBWDYibeBW8P2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I definitely wouldn't resolve until after a reasonable amount of games played.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | Andri | ckXjJM5798ndk6IsL6c7 | public | contract | 1,718,297,454,581 | will-i-get-a-chess-rating-of-1000-i | andri | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHeGd_f3weXHQGNPF2fxvAezw2jBBMQXNlzd1tkV2szg=s96-c | Will I get a chess rating of 1000+ in 2024? | 8amw93mu6c | 0.641006 | 545.208402 | YES | null |
6jslu59vp98 | false | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "XeQf3ygmrGM1MxdsE3JSlmq8vL42",
"label": "Jacy",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Soli ꩜ | qKZnUG5ZWu1BzkeKcB34 | public | contract | 1,718,297,583,470 | will-dalle-3-consistently-generate-822e0ace6fa0 | Soli | Will DALL-E 3+ consistently generate accurate images from the prompt "yellow ocean, blue sand" before 2025? | kgwqmn22pq | 0.53 | 2,259.596793 | YES | null | |
ayt3bdsh6ge | false | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "oSyhdaaBLYgR3tLXoGgKJzDTxtL2",
"label": "Hazel",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Soli ꩜ | qKZnUG5ZWu1BzkeKcB34 | public | contract | 1,718,297,717,313 | will-dalle-3-consistently-generate-822e0ace6fa0 | Soli | Will DALL-E 3+ consistently generate accurate images from the prompt "yellow ocean, blue sand" before 2025? | kgwqmn22pq | 0.53 | 2,259.596793 | YES | null | |
ulsap3wyucg | false | rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "@traders nonono, don't listen to this guy, he doesn't know what he's talking about, buy more NO please!",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | cos | 5eAXDA98XwOsTwQqVNyS | public | contract | 1,718,297,728,801 | this-market-resolves-yes-when-an-ar | cos | This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO. | gsdefxia64 | 0.631824 | 9,844.437459 | YES | null | |
963962sqg8 | false | H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What is Levy's performance rating so far?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
... | MP | d4Q6E8x0ZBICV7VS7fha | public | contract | 1,718,297,953,991 | will-levy-rozman-attain-a-gm-norm-a | MP | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf | Will Levy Rozman attain a GM norm at the Madrid Invitational? | null | null | null | null | null |
kmz3nmgwnjf | false | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You don't know until you get there. Sometimes there is no case. Sometimes there is more than one.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"... | Zvi Mowshowitz | N0Y6Ae0X1Hs4DMakSCGA | public | contract | 1,718,298,000,828 | will-i-get-out-of-jury-duty-within | ZviMowshowitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | Will I get out of Jury Duty within 2 days? | heedf2yba5f | null | null | null | null |
r0oovpf9c | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3",
"label": "vitamind",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | nikki | G2ckDgfWIULCydToLs2L | public | contract | 1,718,298,028,706 | in-the-2024-us-election-will-manifo-209ff9fd9e92 | nikki | In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy? | kg3l1644z88 | 0.6 | 1,730.969217 | YES | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.