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"attrs": nul... | Dan | d4Q6E8x0ZBICV7VS7fha | public | contract | 1,718,298,156,299 | will-levy-rozman-attain-a-gm-norm-a | DanMan314 | Will Levy Rozman attain a GM norm at the Madrid Invitational? | 963962sqg8 | 0.647751 | 279.325051 | NO | null | |
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... | Soli ꩜ | qKZnUG5ZWu1BzkeKcB34 | public | contract | 1,718,298,310,899 | will-dalle-3-consistently-generate-822e0ace6fa0 | Soli | Will DALL-E 3+ consistently generate accurate images from the prompt "yellow ocean, blue sand" before 2025? | kgwqmn22pq | 0.53 | 2,259.596793 | YES | null | |
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"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Antoine Dusséaux | qS4LucaI6a1hAhw538HM | public | contract | 1,718,298,590,860 | will-armenia-and-azerbaijan-sign-pe-49a598e01e7d | adssx | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | Will Armenia and Azerbaijan sign peace treaty by the end of 2030? | null | 0.729964 | 95.418397 | YES | null |
0mqa84o8ibu | false | rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2 | {
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... | cos | 7FOJD721SKtUxuBAc33R | public | contract | 1,718,298,762,205 | will-coin-center-sue-the-us-treasur | cos | Will Coin Center sue the U.S. Treasury (OFAC) over Tornado Cash sanctions? | null | 0.365318 | 275.249249 | YES | null | |
yb9wyg2493q | false | oH5VPkX7C7S10GxkFb1VHqFgB0C2 | {
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"text": "This question neatly encapsulates the opportunities and challenges for Manifold. 566 traders suggest a great deal of interest. And an active market is ... | bitters | mY8eR7W0O3iALtUT66JN | public | contract | 1,718,298,823,487 | how-will-the-supreme-court-decide-t | bitters | How will the Supreme Court split in the Trump immunity case? | k2cfiqevtw | null | 760.663957 | YES | d4d88be4159a | |
kns6cw12q3 | false | HhFRILLYBNPeQaHy5CRZ5V6Ls3i2 | {
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"text": "Wait! Someone is stealing my name here. Fleet Admiral SakazukHIM GOATkainu stocks only deserve to be bought, people shouldn't short the market!",
... | Go D. Usopp | kTqFEe6g2tkfyNj5yHsW | public | contract | 1,718,298,905,749 | akainu-stock | Go_D_Usopp | Akainu Stock | i8peem5ejkg | 0.481572 | 101.370614 | YES | null | |
lpwe4pa8xds | false | ZO9qSVVstZgzKNToBWDYibeBW8P2 | {
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"text": "I should clarify that I'd been playing 5-minute blitz games when I was over 700 and switched to 3|2 which still counts as blitz rating but seems to hav... | Andri | ckXjJM5798ndk6IsL6c7 | public | contract | 1,718,298,968,705 | will-i-get-a-chess-rating-of-1000-i | andri | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHeGd_f3weXHQGNPF2fxvAezw2jBBMQXNlzd1tkV2szg=s96-c | Will I get a chess rating of 1000+ in 2024? | null | 0.641006 | 545.208402 | YES | null |
dajn99vqzub | false | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | {
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"text": "You mean my bot can fade the news all day every day, and get the slate wiped clean whenever it's wrong??",
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... | Michael Wheatley | ViwjLO1DtSprQqbHwOOt | public | contract | 1,718,299,006,465 | will-manifold-introduce-a-mechanism-a21e5ee4f7d5 | MichaelWheatley | Will manifold introduce a mechanism for retroactive market closure in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
oxd82o4b6r | false | faAZQRWR2YTPZJAYEXhw56ydDHL2 | {
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"text": "Resolve pls",
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} | Chris Mills | WpiEtGXikwomF0pYBuJS | public | contract | 1,718,299,183,465 | will-carlos-alcaraz-win-at-least-1 | ChrisMillsc5f7 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLmttkO7a_SkKKmgvJV_wh3BtRxvZZxf0PCf1Z7MbCn=s96-c | Will Carlos Alcaraz win at least 1 Grand Slam in 2024? | null | 0.99 | 34.988568 | YES | null |
uxubx8106vc | false | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | {
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"text": "Maybe if they put S26 on its side? It doesn't have flaps so it can roll much better",
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"type": "paragr... | Mqrius | bgWoCzR7WR8YiXlvHhha | public | contract | 1,718,299,281,764 | which-booster-will-fly-30-times-fir | Mqrius | Which booster will fly 30 times first? | n9p5jpfvmjh | null | 143.138056 | NO | c96dd6b029ee | |
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"text": "My guess is that Wikipedia will list current situations as \"a constitutional crisis\" once there is more published writing analyzing them. That is, it... | Karl K. | 5qEMe0gvHrFdM3zzUcNh | public | contract | 1,718,299,301,348 | will-the-united-states-experience-a | KarlK | Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030? | null | 0.371728 | 134.675538 | YES | null | |
kuhw16rnz0i | false | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | {
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"text": "Hmm, I guess anything that makes it to 30 times reuse has to be faster than every half a year anyway, otherwise it takes 15 years to even get there. Ma... | Mqrius | bgWoCzR7WR8YiXlvHhha | public | contract | 1,718,299,385,691 | which-booster-will-fly-30-times-fir | Mqrius | Which booster will fly 30 times first? | qg0qmclwcg | null | 143.138056 | NO | c96dd6b029ee | |
0bdsyj6qa4j | false | 3jy90F2LW0dU5MLpTP8k5vOhVr42 | {
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... | Alexander Campbell | JlDOukeUul5jSsqQdYOS | public | contract | 1,718,299,409,453 | will-china-invade-taiwan-by-end-of-3b9f98feae14 | AlexanderLeCampbell | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2024? | null | 0.156537 | 3,375.171931 | YES | null | |
72k9ssvy0e4 | false | gPSYNnNzGYcud85p9rXwirBmsGe2 | {
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"text": "How can we help them? This venue was the best",
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} | Clark 🐶 | dd7xzz1Nvopy1ojZcR6x | public | contract | 1,718,299,468,906 | will-lighthaven-shut-down-in-2024-d | Clark | Will Lighthaven shut down in 2024 due to lack of funds? | null | 0.25 | 65.520066 | NO | null | |
p29u4bwvfs | false | T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13 | {
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} | The Wabi Sabi | t8Ekqqy3EkvbQ9BBcTZG | public | contract | 1,718,299,577,017 | will-the-third-season-of-the-bear-h | TheWabiSabi | Will the third season of "The Bear" have a Rotten Tomatoes score >97%, two days after release? (S1 = 100%, S2 = 99%) | null | 0.690433 | 339.670758 | YES | null | |
fnzqehttlhh | false | jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2 | {
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... | Jess Riedel | bgWoCzR7WR8YiXlvHhha | public | contract | 1,718,299,785,361 | which-booster-will-fly-30-times-fir | JessRiedel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c | Which booster will fly 30 times first? | qg0qmclwcg | null | null | null | null |
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"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | kevor | T9BClzVSR3grvKRWCApH | public | contract | 1,718,299,842,834 | which-youtube-channels-will-release-wkgauivkam | kevor | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLNurTspI79nxGwhPOv0b6qMiLSHmI_dVif1qkHj2qO05M=s96-c | ▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | 302.472182 | YES | ybrjjfl40v |
4ymn413ioww | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
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"text": "does it have to be a crystal outright? no leeway on starting lower for a brief period?",
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"type": "par... | Pat Scott🩴 | 8Up5Fete5pibl3970vK0 | public | contract | 1,718,300,049,031 | will-a-crystal-market-with-m1000000 | Stralor | Will a non-coinflip "Crystal" market with Ṁ1,000,000 of initial liquidity be created by the end of July? | hynwiuclf3w | 0.953269 | 5,000.594601 | YES | null | |
f14s2mfsa9a | false | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | {
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"text": "It seems like Trump is going to pick a VP that few people have heard of (like the top ones here besides Marco Rubio) ",
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... | Charlie Bauer | vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN | public | contract | 1,718,300,260,225 | who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445 | CharlieBauer | Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP) | dx5swmvvc3c | null | 1,081.719079 | YES | 4929f1474692 | |
xmxiohwc43 | false | 3jy90F2LW0dU5MLpTP8k5vOhVr42 | {
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"content":... | Alexander Campbell | 0wlu71Dx7Z9KC5pLSk2d | public | contract | 1,718,300,383,387 | will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to | AlexanderLeCampbell | Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (2023) | 0v46u365gn7 | 0.5 | 1.836398 | NO | null | |
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... | Anton Bogun | UePyXwxH8DrPdrUU1yBD | public | contract | 1,718,300,423,599 | will-i-do-4h-or-less-of-work-on-gra-40iwykdlz5 | AntonBogun | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKIkgJ3gNoBVdiNHmHyZFKPprQaeQNvCqsiX9H0ZjpajZo=s96-c | Will I do 4h or less of work on GraphSheets this week? | null | null | null | null | null |
mzj9dfyrk3 | false | 3jy90F2LW0dU5MLpTP8k5vOhVr42 | {
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"type": "men... | Alexander Campbell | 0wlu71Dx7Z9KC5pLSk2d | public | contract | 1,718,300,527,937 | will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to | AlexanderLeCampbell | Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (2023) | 0v46u365gn7 | 0.5 | 1.836398 | NO | null | |
vrhf4liv75j | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
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"text": "Last night I was partying at a strip club with my wife’s friend who owns it so I only slept from like 4:30 to 8:30 and now I have some very slight nasa... | Jonathan Ray | cCKe5crr6hlARaVQvGtl | public | contract | 1,718,300,533,255 | will-my-followup-covid-test-be-posi | JonathanRay | Will my follow-up covid test be positive? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ih9s3pwoje | false | IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92 | {
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"text": "The plot thickens ",
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} | Andrew | kTqFEe6g2tkfyNj5yHsW | public | contract | 1,718,300,660,769 | akainu-stock | AndrewCrosse | Akainu Stock | i8peem5ejkg | 0.867125 | 93.828584 | YES | null | |
oma467ej0m | false | V1YeIh32ozXzkndrxK0uHSPNlc53 | {
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"text": "unless he's wrong this market only pays out on \"yes\". Yudkowsky himself should buy yes shares were he muxmaxing.",
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}... | Jono | sHWp49pzJJYQDSsUh84H | public | contract | 1,718,300,677,698 | will-eliezer-belief-in-mankinds-sur | Jono3h | Will Eliezer believe in mankind's survival again? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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"text": "I'll be a tiny bit lenient if it's immediately upgraded within an hour or so of creation, so the intent was to create a crystal market from the start."... | Dan | 8Up5Fete5pibl3970vK0 | public | contract | 1,718,300,884,045 | will-a-crystal-market-with-m1000000 | DanMan314 | Will a non-coinflip "Crystal" market with Ṁ1,000,000 of initial liquidity be created by the end of July? | hynwiuclf3w | null | null | null | null | |
h5gfglk3kfn | false | DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2 | {
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"text": "Congrats on dating what sounds like a 10th grader. ",
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... | Kevin Blawd | ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl | public | contract | 1,718,300,887,026 | will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c | KevinBlaw | Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024? | probkeme0qf | 0.990209 | 342.376212 | NO | null | |
h4hjqzmuwaj | false | M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2 | {
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"text": "Unitree H1 does not currently count for this market because it does not have enough autonomy. Standing on it's own is not enough. If it could open door... | NivlacM | tayDSmN28BijOSC4EaXS | public | contract | 1,718,300,930,190 | will-the-first-publicly-purchasable | NivlacM | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0e4Y--wpuxNpBGKB54wHqZQP2tJVKVLsuCx8sWIg=s96-c | Will the first publicly purchasable humanoid robot have built in object interaction restrictions? | null | 0.607939 | 22.511538 | NO | null |
sn2efy9g1i | false | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | {
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"text": "For this market does Grandmaster only mean the title of Grandmaster that can be obtained by any gender and for whicj the Elo threshold is 2500 ?",
... | Mich | Mk8pwirktJ053p8EIh02 | public | contract | 1,718,301,089,358 | will-there-be-a-transgender-fide-ch | Mich | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | Will there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2025? | null | null | null | null | null |
4vnyq34rr0e | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
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"text": "i believe so based on my understanding currently. has this happened already ? i only saw a IM has happened",
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]... | chris (strutheo) | Mk8pwirktJ053p8EIh02 | public | contract | 1,718,301,214,468 | will-there-be-a-transgender-fide-ch | strutheo | Will there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2025? | sn2efy9g1i | null | null | null | null | |
ox0qh1op0n | false | NOwmwNXwwEPeMSyRv7Jby3Ry2Qs1 | {
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"type":... | Benjamin Cosman | 0wlu71Dx7Z9KC5pLSk2d | public | contract | 1,718,301,269,457 | will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to | BenjaminCosman | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpw00X8vUChExgzazukv9rP3dnjhsvxGTntPujSNQ=s96-c | Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (2023) | 0v46u365gn7 | 0.5 | 14,155.6296 | NO | null |
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"text": "Didn’t hear of it happening already. Just wanted to be sure that the title of WGM wouldn’t count regarding this market.",
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... | Mich | Mk8pwirktJ053p8EIh02 | public | contract | 1,718,301,285,739 | will-there-be-a-transgender-fide-ch | Mich | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | Will there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2025? | sn2efy9g1i | null | null | null | null |
32j3v362ds9 | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
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"text": "I'm really not sure here. They seem equally valuable to me, but my instinct is the public only sees the value in the first option.",
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... | nikki | WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63 | public | contract | 1,718,302,341,401 | will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500 | nikki | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin? | f6shvvnmvl | null | null | null | null | |
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"text": "Just heard about Google 2Q gates at 99.95 fidelity. I think we can call this one, since I haven’t heard anyone seriously question the Quantinuum announ... | Quantum Observer | 1ELyQwPGSql3CABGNdog | public | contract | 1,718,302,550,163 | will-any-corporate-quantum-computin | QuantumObserver | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu31El0veqEHmPaRj9RP-M8KnBoQEAJ1KeTJVCbf=s96-c | Will any corporate quantum computing team report 2 or more simultaneous 2-qubit gates with >= 99.9% fidelity by 2025? | null | 0.814809 | 917.606813 | YES | null |
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... | Bruno | VflGLZHMpRhZzesdVPdN | public | contract | 1,718,302,577,932 | which-party-will-have-the-son-or-da | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Which party will have the Son or Daughter of the House elected? | null | null | null | null | null |
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} | Dan | d4Q6E8x0ZBICV7VS7fha | public | contract | 1,718,302,959,632 | will-levy-rozman-attain-a-gm-norm-a | DanMan314 | Will Levy Rozman attain a GM norm at the Madrid Invitational? | 32j3v362ds9 | 0.647751 | 100.325051 | NO | null | |
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... | Kongo Landwalker | oDTdjay5Ap4CD2OGqAYy | public | contract | 1,718,303,313,569 | what-will-be-my-efficiency-in-unive | KongoLandwalker | What will be my efficiency* in study programming project? | null | 0.534513 | 138.381985 | YES | null | |
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... | Ozzie Gooen | Nn6FkHrTXofTT2PjD27t | public | contract | 1,718,303,432,532 | if-we-survive-general-artificial-in-z3suausl60 | OzzieGooen | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjAzYoG5RsGcypdfWVucG6EFCn-tfigr3Ubcp4QWA=s96-c | If we survive general artificial intelligence before 2100, what will be the reason? | 8f5vj92h2mu | null | 13.285225 | NO | aeyeam4ke8 |
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... | James Baker | 5nqgo5GLYQByKqcMgjdA | public | contract | 1,718,304,422,760 | will-we-add-periodicfilling-limit-o | JamesBaker3 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c | Will we add periodic-filling limit orders in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
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... | Percentage | yBMtgd0QneONa5NhqJmU | public | contract | 1,718,305,162,786 | will-the-booster-explode-and-damage | percentage | Will the booster explode and damage Mechazilla during the first catch attempt? | q4tgbz1pcds | 0.273836 | 41.202061 | NO | null | |
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... | Timothy Johnson | d4Q6E8x0ZBICV7VS7fha | public | contract | 1,718,306,172,572 | will-levy-rozman-attain-a-gm-norm-a | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Will Levy Rozman attain a GM norm at the Madrid Invitational? | 32j3v362ds9 | 0.682904 | 283.886111 | YES | null |
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"text": "In what way do you think? I mean the model, not the actual predictions. I would agree that certain factors have thrown a wrench in the model, like it p... | Stark | G2ckDgfWIULCydToLs2L | public | contract | 1,718,307,830,791 | in-the-2024-us-election-will-manifo-209ff9fd9e92 | StarkLN | In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy? | kg3l1644z88 | 0.585416 | 1,306.519202 | NO | null |
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