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... | Simon Grayson | JgtylACtp9Te19fxofC5 | public | contract | 1,718,438,570,236 | will-reform-uk-get-over-4000000-vot | SimonGrayson | UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK get over 4,000,000 votes? | null | 0.823043 | 1,017.95527 | NO | null | |
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"type": "ment... | Quillist | J8x08zbtceapKkRAn55T | public | contract | 1,718,439,703,165 | barron-trump-is-not-fully-natural | Quillist | Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."] | 5h6zq1r2lnn | 0.406919 | 94.465832 | YES | null | |
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"... | Quillist | 4kzmieiolh | public | contract | 1,718,439,991,901 | what-is-barron-trump-on | Quillist | What is Barron Trump on? | hbc9kh32xnp | null | null | null | null | |
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"t... | Finn | SEQyattwFhw3qukWSl8v | public | contract | 1,718,440,207,805 | uk-general-election-which-party-wil-35d0bc6a20f9 | finn | UK General Election - which party will win the second most seats? | 0615t543bllp | null | 2,540.107279 | YES | 1b323f311a69 | |
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... | Anna | tNPuPosGYYevsg6sRcDM | public | contract | 1,718,441,389,077 | what-should-i-do-in-san-francisco-b | tcheasdfjkl | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c | What should I do in San Francisco before moving away? | null | null | null | null | null |
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... | Anna | tNPuPosGYYevsg6sRcDM | public | contract | 1,718,441,661,269 | what-should-i-do-in-san-francisco-b | tcheasdfjkl | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c | What should I do in San Francisco before moving away? | sj0bciss2h9 | null | null | null | null |
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"typ... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | cqzw63ucll | public | contract | 1,718,449,873,103 | mother-of-choice | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Mother of choice | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "It seems overconfident to me. And yeah the implied probability for the Conservatives being the second largest party are currently around 75% according ... | Finn | SEQyattwFhw3qukWSl8v | public | contract | 1,718,449,975,878 | uk-general-election-which-party-wil-35d0bc6a20f9 | finn | UK General Election - which party will win the second most seats? | 0615t543bllp | null | 2,729.855427 | YES | 1b323f311a69 | |
x81y3i2l94 | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
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} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | vdbnbisg5y | public | contract | 1,718,450,118,122 | will-the-authorities-trace-back-evi | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will the authorities trace back evidence from the events of 6/21/24 back to @CarsonGale? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"type": "par... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | bu5kle20mw | public | contract | 1,718,450,345,747 | is-this-a-satisfying-definition-of | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Is this a satisfying definition of life? | null | null | null | null | null |
866u1ajkg1g | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
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} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | hI5ALCi6wXQWWITMQS8M | public | contract | 1,718,450,901,678 | will-jim-ever-try-sex | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | will @jim have sex at any point prior to 2028? | 8mw9b042trh | 0.49 | 23.674242 | YES | null |
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... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | hI5ALCi6wXQWWITMQS8M | public | contract | 1,718,450,990,482 | will-jim-ever-try-sex | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | will @jim have sex at any point prior to 2028? | null | null | null | null | null |
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... | Caelum Forder | 4iihlXKfHNCf7H1uuPxS | public | contract | 1,718,451,138,796 | what-is-my-iq-8087fa2a6898 | CaelumForder | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJnrFtkkV6buxBlFVrbVq7k_3-VSI2sBSAvEdCClanhrUJx0Q=s96-c | What is my IQ ? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "Calling dibs on saying the question is misresolved if a referendum passes before 2030 but the date of independence/joining the Republic is after that",... | Bruno | 243JXo3KjT8OC9medTDf | public | contract | 1,718,451,835,494 | will-northern-ireland-leave-the-uk | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2030? | null | 0.135179 | 11.461577 | NO | null |
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"text": "Can a human perform acts that are legally required to be performed by a human, such as signing contracts? To what extent can the AI hire humans to perf... | Bruno | mzblrh7ohe | public | contract | 1,718,451,902,228 | will-an-ai-autonomously-earn-more-t | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will an AI autonomously earn more than $10,000 not through financial trading, starting with no more than $100 by 2026? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "I wish I understood the market creator's psychology. He says he's \"certainly not the smartest person on Manifold\" and his\"phrasing could have been b... | Bruno | i4TBi474weysZfD683pI | public | contract | 1,718,452,101,247 | will-the-covid-lab-leak-theory-beco | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will the Covid Lab Leak Theory become truth by the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "How on earth could this possibly ever resolve \"Bloc québecois\"? They don't run in enough seats to be a majority even if they win every vote in every ... | Bruno | 4xU1VU6wwwhshy6TDRKT | public | contract | 1,718,452,300,553 | next-canadian-government | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Next Canadian Government | null | null | null | null | null |
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... | Weezing | x87dyzt44a | public | contract | 1,718,452,802,282 | will-gothamchess-levy-rozman-win-hi | Weezing | Will GothamChess (Levy Rozman) win his last game at Madrid Festival on Saturday? | null | 0 | 6,443.795927 | NO | null | |
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"text": "Calling dibs on saying the question is misresolved if a referendum passes before 2040 but the date of independence is after that",
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]... | Weezing | Mhhhe6SUancZGP2pDkxJ | public | contract | 1,718,453,099,740 | who-will-win-fide-circuit-2024 | Weezing | Who will win FIDE Circuit 2024? | null | null | 120.689075 | YES | ad5c32b6f2b5 | |
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... | Timothy Bandors | h1lrZBgWTZt6nYJUJ0lQ | public | contract | 1,718,453,398,905 | what-will-be-true-about-the-person | TimothyBandors | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c | What will be true about the person who creates AGI? | uoci3fmdyn | null | null | null | null |
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]... | Ansel | G0m40MW0WYOyqhxP2hDr | public | contract | 1,718,453,619,905 | what-will-be-the-biggest-crisis-fac | Ansel | What will be the biggest crisis faced by Singapore in 2024? | null | null | 23.829789 | YES | 136cb0109c31 | |
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... | mario pasquato | NvDzSo4vVdEfOP0XkLz3 | public | contract | 1,718,453,662,310 | whats-an-unconventional-opinion-or | mariopasquato | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtemzqYFS4zuvOtBu7Ko52uxERLtlEzFHTvhCP-noDEfACs=s96-c | What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [UNLINKED] | q6lnjihaqvr | null | null | null | null |
ix5znkaekcc | false | pp3fg6e4EybziUJVfMKaDNDAOVh2 | {
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... | mario pasquato | 5vxcnnzmv2 | public | contract | 1,718,453,970,374 | will-there-be-an-ozymandiasbeihai-a | mariopasquato | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtemzqYFS4zuvOtBu7Ko52uxERLtlEzFHTvhCP-noDEfACs=s96-c | Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"type... | Alex Palcuie | 7m2nnucz6n | public | contract | 1,718,454,402,647 | will-london-reach-35c-or-higher-any | palcu | Will London reach 35°C or higher anytime this year? | null | 0.642137 | 128.655956 | NO | null | |
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} | Ihor Kendiukhov | mzblrh7ohe | public | contract | 1,718,454,556,468 | will-an-ai-autonomously-earn-more-t | IhorKendiukhov | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | Will an AI autonomously earn more than $10,000 not through financial trading, starting with no more than $100 by 2026? | 4txattb8ukd | 0.278795 | 19.234326 | YES | null |
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} | James Dillard | rP1W7Dq9Vu8e0Iz88OzI | public | contract | 1,718,455,045,353 | which-nba-team-will-win-game-5-of-t | jdilla | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgQ3DNbYEPlxgQPup0iq_AO-L4Z9__n3MX3MtqVpLw=s96-c | Which NBA team will win Game 5 between the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "No more appeals before October. ",
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"alt": n... | duN | 18HRXo2LWzDqizrj8FEY | public | contract | 1,718,455,468,074 | will-destiny-get-unbanned-from-twit-df967649e5f8 | dgga | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdgga%2F_HQHzw0yrx.0?alt=media&token=b8a7e5fb-51e0-49fa-b18c-463f38fe9ecc | Will Destiny get unbanned from Twitch before October 2024? | null | 0.153206 | 33,916.70039 | NO | null |
ecd77iwuzng | false | 7Zfy9bUDSscO94DPcNJNm8KrT3F2 | {
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"text": "I will change date to a later date as I didn’t look into how fast the reviews come through. Sorry about that.",
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... | Rillaboom27 | b6h3ow8oj9 | public | contract | 1,718,456,323,547 | will-deadpool-3-achieve-90-score-on | Rillaboom27 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJhCwCShHnyGWuaQpQROwcdenijvJlNL0xMMLa79w2sAiRFxNuW=s96-c | Will Deadpool 3 achieve 9.0+ score on imdb.com? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "Changed date to Feb. 1. 2025 to let the reviews settle.",
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"type": "d... | Rillaboom27 | b6h3ow8oj9 | public | contract | 1,718,456,521,269 | will-deadpool-3-achieve-90-score-on | Rillaboom27 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJhCwCShHnyGWuaQpQROwcdenijvJlNL0xMMLa79w2sAiRFxNuW=s96-c | Will Deadpool 3 achieve 9.0+ score on imdb.com? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"type": "doc"... | Eli Lifland | Mzi8VF9LETNh6zeGXhuX | public | contract | 1,718,456,568,284 | will-tweet-about-ai-making-human-fo | EliLifland | Will tweet about ~"AI making human forecasting obsolete" hold up? | bx7qq9wf2kj | 0.077276 | 3,636.891657 | YES | null | |
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... | Jonas Vollmer | WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63 | public | contract | 1,718,456,649,774 | will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500 | JonasVollmer | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqZTipfMh8me9ID8kOWIN_e0cMRyQ68DN8Ikyk2p3E=s96-c | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin? | p7de1twl48m | 0.83 | 252,435.629804 | YES | null |
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