id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2
classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2
values | commentType stringclasses 1
value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2
values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5daud12iosr | false | RK6Nd7IBfMVOcLekfqcN9Ys17qJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm talking about the title. I only made my comment because the description didn't match the title. I made a similar suggestion on another market about... | Peter Njeim | YUkqI0EPhMoxjferJU2d | public | contract | 1,718,589,814,191 | by-2025-will-most-welleducated-peop | PeterNjeim | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKEfIjg6agfzK10gUG7Pht9z6y3O1nV87K7pQwUqKf_0HE=s96-c | By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans? | gyl222b9pz9 | null | null | null | null |
h4ote6cagfp | false | uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | notarealuser | 8GiFa50N92EKa1W0fZT8 | public | contract | 1,718,590,882,708 | which-humanoid-robot-will-first-go | notarealuser | Which Humanoid Robot will first go into production? | null | null | 0 | YES | 547357269908 | |
zm2m14931e | false | 6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "But the source (and therefore the spirit of this market, I presume) is a quote, from a prediction made by a 3rd party.",
"type": "text"
... | James Baker | YUkqI0EPhMoxjferJU2d | public | contract | 1,718,591,171,760 | by-2025-will-most-welleducated-peop | JamesBaker3 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c | By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans? | gyl222b9pz9 | 0.163085 | 5,067.598664 | YES | null |
1hdu6jy3mxgh | false | SxTdvFjmDQUtrqGjm7ulTdAAfuW2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Julius Simonelli | dd7xzz1Nvopy1ojZcR6x | public | contract | 1,718,591,493,291 | will-lighthaven-shut-down-in-2024-d | JuliusSimonelli | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6Sg_yb3xtycV_S2osuPYxUSeV8etIYSAc2XQGCkQ=s96-c | Will Lighthaven shut down in 2024 due to lack of funds? | null | null | null | null | null |
o0kyu349djs | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolves YES",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
... | Daniel | Lguoo1rheCJm0nd4lrzq | public | contract | 1,718,591,539,557 | will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-610d9ac8f830 | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Will any of the videos uploaded to Joe Rogan's YouTube channel in Jun 2024 surpass 2M views? | null | 0.671128 | 565.664649 | YES | null |
nxjtbrpk49 | false | RK6Nd7IBfMVOcLekfqcN9Ys17qJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yeah I noticed that too. Even then, I took issue with the wording, it's not that important but I'm someone who wants to change the perception that atte... | Peter Njeim | YUkqI0EPhMoxjferJU2d | public | contract | 1,718,591,605,743 | by-2025-will-most-welleducated-peop | PeterNjeim | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKEfIjg6agfzK10gUG7Pht9z6y3O1nV87K7pQwUqKf_0HE=s96-c | By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans? | gyl222b9pz9 | null | null | null | null |
aqf0wb0k2wh | false | mlp27Ss4dISUSN4ofutGMyG37VC3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#1 would not be that surprising and would not (to me) indicate that the recommendations had aged poorly. Evidence for some treatments is evolving, and ... | ForecastingPerson | Lt81Vx5fVyOEKw01sM3B | public | contract | 1,718,591,643,792 | will-givewells-recommendations-age | ForecastingPerson | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJxyJdR87hxWokd-2NP4MAxuut9d8G2EB1a_rxXkpRekqB52xvi=s96-c | Will GiveWell's recommendations age poorly, by 2026? | null | null | null | null | null |
9lvredjv11 | false | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It’s not just you.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ClubmasterTransparent | t47Ytb5DZsPjNldFD3EZ | public | contract | 1,718,591,753,611 | who-will-be-manifolds-2024-person-o | ClubmasterTransparent | Who will be Manifold's 2024 Person of The Year? | aomb5mkvuxg | null | 441.878409 | YES | 462f7e8fb62a | |
d3qa7pzeizo | false | 8ClHap6pPnTL6uOupDT94R6cxgv2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Do uploads/ems count?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Adele Lopez | CNZgngRjJaQJmyMIUud7 | public | contract | 1,718,591,809,042 | will-the-world-population-ever-surp | adele | Will the world population ever surpass 20 billion before 2075? | null | null | null | null | null | |
4gxhf7y3rln | false | MwhSsHsiOUVVfcZB2eF0PlkoVEs2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Update on the general state of things thread. I will post each piece of info as a separate response to this comment in case people want to reply with b... | Juan Pablo | GUuEipExzjjqhImnYa3N | public | contract | 1,718,591,938,852 | will-i-enter-a-romantic-relationshi-563016689ea2 | mkualquiera | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkualquiera%2Flove-images%2FqDhgIM8Sei.40?alt=media&token=19cd620f-9957-4619-8d53-d77ddca8decc | Will I enter a romantic relationship with my best friend before 2025 | null | null | null | null | null |
wusij81t81l | false | MwhSsHsiOUVVfcZB2eF0PlkoVEs2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "We're still best friends :D we still watch movies together and play games and go out to eat and stuff like that every week. ",
"type": "text"... | Juan Pablo | GUuEipExzjjqhImnYa3N | public | contract | 1,718,592,039,537 | will-i-enter-a-romantic-relationshi-563016689ea2 | mkualquiera | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkualquiera%2Flove-images%2FqDhgIM8Sei.40?alt=media&token=19cd620f-9957-4619-8d53-d77ddca8decc | Will I enter a romantic relationship with my best friend before 2025 | 4gxhf7y3rln | null | null | null | null |
zgwks6pvkdh | false | GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What's FTL? Not \"faster than light\", right?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nathan Wei | BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz | public | contract | 1,718,592,042,093 | will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat | nathanwei | Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? | dkgyy1z7jyv | 0.235757 | 222.659486 | NO | null | |
neui0davqgc | false | MwhSsHsiOUVVfcZB2eF0PlkoVEs2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "We went to San Andrés in February for a week. Unfortunately she injured her leg so we weren't able to enjoy the sea too much :( but it was still a very... | Juan Pablo | GUuEipExzjjqhImnYa3N | public | contract | 1,718,592,187,058 | will-i-enter-a-romantic-relationshi-563016689ea2 | mkualquiera | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkualquiera%2Flove-images%2FqDhgIM8Sei.40?alt=media&token=19cd620f-9957-4619-8d53-d77ddca8decc | Will I enter a romantic relationship with my best friend before 2025 | 4gxhf7y3rln | null | null | null | null |
uopichglezc | false | Q9XCF79f7JgZF8itYw5uDJg3Whm2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It stands for Faster Than Light, but I think what most people mean when they say it is a way to travel between two locations faster than light speed, s... | blankspace737 | BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz | public | contract | 1,718,592,460,213 | will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat | stardust | Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? | dkgyy1z7jyv | 0.23 | 792.068356 | YES | null | |
iuvo1vjdgni | false | MwhSsHsiOUVVfcZB2eF0PlkoVEs2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "There were some problems though, sometimes we had a bit too much to drink while there, and we had some fairly big arguments which is something that had... | Juan Pablo | GUuEipExzjjqhImnYa3N | public | contract | 1,718,592,588,814 | will-i-enter-a-romantic-relationshi-563016689ea2 | mkualquiera | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkualquiera%2Flove-images%2FqDhgIM8Sei.40?alt=media&token=19cd620f-9957-4619-8d53-d77ddca8decc | Will I enter a romantic relationship with my best friend before 2025 | 4gxhf7y3rln | null | null | null | null |
ybpt4o1w8dn | false | KNqZAiItmVTCX0LzUcj8Twg7tnh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "/market will ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2",
"label... | snazzlePop | ChWSmXZRdmv3z9MVAMDp | public | contract | 1,718,592,983,544 | will-the-second-manifest-be-better | snazzlePop | Will the second Manifest be better than the first? | null | 0.94 | 2,624.95668 | YES | null | |
w3v4zakubg | false | Dfb1xQjetuXPPiyPLjdPEUGBQqn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm realizing there's a discrepancy in how the question was written. I intended for the 1-month window to include August 2024, to give time for the win... | AdamK | 9ZYmTBm76ymtvljOgv98 | public | contract | 1,718,593,108,803 | shortfuse-hot-take-will-the-imo-gol | AdamK | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHzjbR-fCoxMW9TGbF-Z4OV-3B2ZW-hZ9mj-fDVg=s96-c | [Short-fuse / hot take] Will the IMO Gold by 2025 Market be Above* 30% for a 1-month window before August 1, 2024? | null | 0.31 | 5,376.966989 | YES | null |
8mmzc561wd3 | false | MwhSsHsiOUVVfcZB2eF0PlkoVEs2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Then we came back and I was told about a company trip to Japan that would happen in March so obviously I asked her to come along. For this we had to go... | Juan Pablo | GUuEipExzjjqhImnYa3N | public | contract | 1,718,593,255,947 | will-i-enter-a-romantic-relationshi-563016689ea2 | mkualquiera | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkualquiera%2Flove-images%2FqDhgIM8Sei.40?alt=media&token=19cd620f-9957-4619-8d53-d77ddca8decc | Will I enter a romantic relationship with my best friend before 2025 | 4gxhf7y3rln | null | null | null | null |
dpj4kl555w5 | false | 8ClHap6pPnTL6uOupDT94R6cxgv2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Are you considering it as distinct from \"conservation of energy\"? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],... | Adele Lopez | r2Kuz8Z7yEjCk4mOdAhr | public | contract | 1,718,593,406,152 | will-the-first-law-of-thermodynamic | adele | Will the first law of thermodynamics get a revision before 2030 | null | 0.076397 | 57.616714 | NO | null | |
dhnsnwrrarc | false | 8yc7KkOEBkPfYhOHD7X7pAxYAqj1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Andrew Jewell | T9BClzVSR3grvKRWCApH | public | contract | 1,718,593,798,356 | which-youtube-channels-will-release-wkgauivkam | AndrewJewell | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJtHGRQS99QOqyESeDTaXaEQWHskfuQIKJc-43OWdk5GVlM=s96-c | ▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | null | null | null |
76r6oy76ngk | false | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It seems like if FTL was even possible within the laws of physics, the Fermi paradox is vastly more paradoxical",
"type": "text"
}
... | Semiotic Rivalry | BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz | public | contract | 1,718,594,030,620 | will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat | SemioticRivalry | Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? | dkgyy1z7jyv | 0.223314 | 321.102111 | NO | null | |
0kqnr5xlp67k | false | MwhSsHsiOUVVfcZB2eF0PlkoVEs2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Then everything was more or less normal for a while. One night I fucked up again because we were drinking at her apartment and I kinda hinted at the id... | Juan Pablo | GUuEipExzjjqhImnYa3N | public | contract | 1,718,594,173,498 | will-i-enter-a-romantic-relationshi-563016689ea2 | mkualquiera | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkualquiera%2Flove-images%2FqDhgIM8Sei.40?alt=media&token=19cd620f-9957-4619-8d53-d77ddca8decc | Will I enter a romantic relationship with my best friend before 2025 | 4gxhf7y3rln | null | null | null | null |
kixk9m95yet | false | MwhSsHsiOUVVfcZB2eF0PlkoVEs2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "And later she messaged me and said she was sorry for kissing me and that she didn't want to confuse me, but that she just really wanted to do it. ",
... | Juan Pablo | GUuEipExzjjqhImnYa3N | public | contract | 1,718,594,219,653 | will-i-enter-a-romantic-relationshi-563016689ea2 | mkualquiera | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkualquiera%2Flove-images%2FqDhgIM8Sei.40?alt=media&token=19cd620f-9957-4619-8d53-d77ddca8decc | Will I enter a romantic relationship with my best friend before 2025 | 4gxhf7y3rln | null | null | null | null |
g1czsuhadak | false | qIjH5KDOG9WVsa3265yCTICxHjx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Owner's account banned and deleted, i guess it's impossible for ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id":... | Qoiuoiuoiu | XTBeOx4Yr1uQThj5ck5U | public | contract | 1,718,594,290,481 | will-i-lose-my-life-savings-on-mani | Qoiuoiuoiu | Will I lose my life savings on manifold before the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ewc52aly6qh | false | 3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The resolution has a high likelihood of being disputed. You can invest with that knowledge.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type":... | MercurialGuesser | NKM6oCA1aVmnxnYkB9JH | public | contract | 1,718,594,453,062 | will-the-oct-7-rape-claims-be-subst | OP | Will the Oct 7 rape claims be substantiated by an independent investigation? | z4fo2037dq | 0.75 | 571.293105 | NO | null | |
rwxi6ot7g7 | false | 6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This hit piece is circulating today: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"ma... | James Baker | dd7xzz1Nvopy1ojZcR6x | public | contract | 1,718,594,463,872 | will-lighthaven-shut-down-in-2024-d | JamesBaker3 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c | Will Lighthaven shut down in 2024 due to lack of funds? | null | 0.200166 | 220.391811 | YES | null |
kacjjogv60o | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "10/30",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | HYJvRz8d3aFjxoBHB5nK | public | contract | 1,718,594,491,973 | will-the-anything-else-podcast-make-6e547754efee | strutheo | Will the Anything Else? podcast make it to 30 episodes? | null | null | null | null | null | |
hislnqbkiqi | false | Q9XCF79f7JgZF8itYw5uDJg3Whm2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If you believe that extraterrestial life is common",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | blankspace737 | BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz | public | contract | 1,718,594,497,061 | will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat | stardust | Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? | dkgyy1z7jyv | 0.223314 | 792.068356 | YES | null | |
gcua2p3vvp9 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "10/100",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | BGeFffDpB6Rj5WBZzsRB | public | contract | 1,718,594,501,629 | will-the-anything-else-podcast-reac | strutheo | Will the Anything Else podcast reach 100 episodes? | null | null | null | null | null | |
vwtuj4u7bah | false | 6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is Lighthaven imperiled by FTX suing CFAR/Lightcone for $5M?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type... | James Baker | av7R6n2rUOMrPTjt9E5b | public | contract | 1,718,594,546,655 | will-lighthaven-be-capable-of-hosti | JamesBaker3 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c | Will Lighthaven be capable of hosting a Manifest/LessOnline style event in June 2025? | null | 0.659823 | 146.946098 | NO | null |
tfpklc1xkdj | false | MwhSsHsiOUVVfcZB2eF0PlkoVEs2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Then we went to japan. It was honestly fairly difficult. By the time the trip happened we started to have some financial problems and this created weir... | Juan Pablo | GUuEipExzjjqhImnYa3N | public | contract | 1,718,594,695,343 | will-i-enter-a-romantic-relationshi-563016689ea2 | mkualquiera | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkualquiera%2Flove-images%2FqDhgIM8Sei.40?alt=media&token=19cd620f-9957-4619-8d53-d77ddca8decc | Will I enter a romantic relationship with my best friend before 2025 | 4gxhf7y3rln | null | null | null | null |
lj85rus6g8j | false | MwhSsHsiOUVVfcZB2eF0PlkoVEs2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I will be honest and say that I am very sad about this. I dreamed of going to japan with her and I didn't think it would be so \"easy\" (seemingly). In... | Juan Pablo | GUuEipExzjjqhImnYa3N | public | contract | 1,718,594,887,139 | will-i-enter-a-romantic-relationshi-563016689ea2 | mkualquiera | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkualquiera%2Flove-images%2FqDhgIM8Sei.40?alt=media&token=19cd620f-9957-4619-8d53-d77ddca8decc | Will I enter a romantic relationship with my best friend before 2025 | 4gxhf7y3rln | null | null | null | null |
0zjcycfs7dki | false | jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You’re going to need to specify the threshold more clearly. There is a spectrum of proposed tests that are progressively more challenging to perform bu... | Jess Riedel | U5C1gG0bZFfNoFAniQA2 | public | contract | 1,718,595,310,816 | will-we-know-if-gravity-is-fundamen | JessRiedel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c | Will we know if gravity is fundamentally quantum by the end of 2030? | null | null | null | null | null |
q65q3hkq5q | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ding might be the weakest world champion ever: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
... | Timothy Johnson | iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L | public | contract | 1,718,595,380,656 | will-ding-liren-repeat-as-world-che | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Will Ding Liren repeat as World Chess Champion? | null | 0.31663 | 68.601956 | NO | null |
flv9bks0amh | false | 12ztXVGfibSZaCDnGndN40PKUIO2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What are some of the results of the program?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Paul | 1lpjdga097 | public | contract | 1,718,595,605,452 | initiative-2117-will-washington-rep | Paul | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GivsAmgOWywNYNzHSwlvq95nQAGKHiFjTR4-W0NRg=s96-c | Initiative 2117: Will Washington Repeal the “Cap and Trade” Program? | null | 0.264435 | 72.240937 | NO | null |
7m9vxunyepv | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "austin posted in the discord on june 7",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | nikki | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,718,595,865,111 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | nikki | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | xpl4jje9hid | null | 2,618.578629 | YES | 0c989f10d177 | |
usi4guls3c9 | false | oEpXdWv0VgO5CIyBLQWaXx0Zsxr2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3",
"label": "Tetraspace",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention... | amp! | 8VPRgCFqsjUQeB0cjbtC | public | contract | 1,718,596,109,592 | tetrabay-prop-bets | ampdot | Tetrabay Prop Bets | null | null | 47.370658 | NO | mqkrlxdpo4 | |
x6tuaend339 | false | MwhSsHsiOUVVfcZB2eF0PlkoVEs2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Anyway, we survived. These past months have been difficult due to external reasons but we're doing okay now and I think things are slowly improving. Ha... | Juan Pablo | GUuEipExzjjqhImnYa3N | public | contract | 1,718,596,242,115 | will-i-enter-a-romantic-relationshi-563016689ea2 | mkualquiera | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkualquiera%2Flove-images%2FqDhgIM8Sei.40?alt=media&token=19cd620f-9957-4619-8d53-d77ddca8decc | Will I enter a romantic relationship with my best friend before 2025 | 4gxhf7y3rln | null | null | null | null |
sy00fnlja7s | false | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | singer | Hd7OM4XMfR7FY37Sk22W | public | contract | 1,718,596,244,145 | lasa-100gw-ai-training-run-before-2 | singer | [LA:SA] 100GW AI training run before 2031? | null | 0.138607 | 309.648108 | YES | null | |
cz6g78fe3b | false | MwhSsHsiOUVVfcZB2eF0PlkoVEs2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I probably don't really care as much about having like a named relationship or whatever anymore. I've learned a lot about myself and my flaws and how t... | Juan Pablo | GUuEipExzjjqhImnYa3N | public | contract | 1,718,596,410,180 | will-i-enter-a-romantic-relationshi-563016689ea2 | mkualquiera | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkualquiera%2Flove-images%2FqDhgIM8Sei.40?alt=media&token=19cd620f-9957-4619-8d53-d77ddca8decc | Will I enter a romantic relationship with my best friend before 2025 | 4gxhf7y3rln | null | null | null | null |
h1educo4twt | false | MwhSsHsiOUVVfcZB2eF0PlkoVEs2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm not giving up either though, I'm just not in any rush and I'm happy with the outcome either way :D",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | Juan Pablo | GUuEipExzjjqhImnYa3N | public | contract | 1,718,596,578,044 | will-i-enter-a-romantic-relationshi-563016689ea2 | mkualquiera | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkualquiera%2Flove-images%2FqDhgIM8Sei.40?alt=media&token=19cd620f-9957-4619-8d53-d77ddca8decc | Will I enter a romantic relationship with my best friend before 2025 | 4gxhf7y3rln | null | null | null | null |
3812croqavx | false | j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "Q9XCF79f7JgZF8itYw5uDJg3Whm2",
"label": "stardust",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Jim Hays | BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz | public | contract | 1,718,596,600,767 | will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat | JimHays | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5OSur1iRh2XJCBqWybZBd64MFALBZbO6xjTAxCmAM=s96-c | Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? | dkgyy1z7jyv | 0.223314 | 3,356.602967 | NO | null |
2ygo5c4ae0b | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | R3a7GxrB11JRxfUES3F3 | public | contract | 1,718,597,022,793 | will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-fd2e84e1158d | strutheo | Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of July? | null | null | null | null | null | |
cxzvg9hadj | false | 8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Anton Paquin | 9zfBY6pffO8XmqaqrGiC | public | contract | 1,718,597,636,204 | where-will-i-end-up-working | citrinitas | Where will I end up working? | W8EJJ0k4mBVRXuSIFGqF | null | 100 | YES | d6e96eeb8f59 | |
8aynii5h6vd | false | BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Assuming it's mostly a repeat of 2020 with the Margin going from Biden +4.5 to Biden +2.0, I have Trump 67%, Biden 33% to win election ",
"ty... | Chinmay The Math Guy | Z9uy9T4q4rAfq4sGzPA0 | public | contract | 1,718,597,663,039 | which-party-will-win-the-2024-us-pr-f4158bf9278a | ChinmayTheMathGuy | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZq896I_Ax8LGfe5H_KMzO98z8XRF1EV3Jg9qYo=s96-c | Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | null | 7,835.800443 | YES | 2bf0c3888c54 |
k07xug1gfp | false | 1RfsLVzFZwaLLXGaSr5yaG5ink23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | duN | 9BgLVfpZlOnNRPiJqa6Y | public | contract | 1,718,597,941,501 | will-the-us-have-a-republican-presi | dgga | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdgga%2F_HQHzw0yrx.0?alt=media&token=b8a7e5fb-51e0-49fa-b18c-463f38fe9ecc | Will the U.S. have a Republican president before 2038? | null | 0.926684 | 20.192712 | NO | null |
14d3t37defp | false | kDJ5DUrMFUfJsgmHxUW07kt4rtb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Math4Life2020 | 1Db5yz7BJd4oRZ7R9aAf | public | contract | 1,718,598,223,521 | will-i-qualify-for-the-2024-icho | Math4Life2020 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcwBvSHrz-DrowVgW3mCBLo8gauVURpjgvOYAYZ_Ito=s96-c | Will I qualify for the 2024 IChO? | null | 0.943415 | 6,989.015392 | YES | null |
xk5yqt2944r | false | wwuaYatAY3bXzQ6i9xC4H48GZgr1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What it means to be visual?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Guilherme sampaio de oliveira | Lk2SEM1zvphDTA2Z2jnu | public | contract | 1,718,598,422,738 | will-100000-people-regularly-use-vi | Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKoJOpm-sb0ENGUKYt8F0z4JclT_9o-RGiWD3ED5lpC=s96-c | Will >100,000 people regularly use visual AR during everyday life by 2030 | null | null | null | null | null |
zm4xfxmffui | false | BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Would you say Obama '12 was a landslide (332-206)?, Tipping Point Margin: CO - 5.4%, Popular: +3.9%",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | Chinmay The Math Guy | ZaI8iOnUmsCvVn7oUYhu | public | contract | 1,718,598,669,312 | will-the-us-2024-presidential-elect-f3203200a064 | ChinmayTheMathGuy | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZq896I_Ax8LGfe5H_KMzO98z8XRF1EV3Jg9qYo=s96-c | Will the US 2024 Presidential Election be considered a landslide victory for whoever is the winner? 🗽🦅🔥🇺🇸 | null | null | null | null | null |
xnn0bxi49s | false | cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "My first thought was: prefers dogs to cats.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | uair01 | tr9b02u0f5 | public | contract | 1,718,598,919,897 | what-weird-unexpected-things-will-c | uair01 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c | What weird unexpected things will correlate with being a conservative in my planned omnibus correlational survey? | gejwixtzln6 | null | null | null | null |
msnsbxyyyz | false | BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "*279, 276.5",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Chinmay The Math Guy | Z9uy9T4q4rAfq4sGzPA0 | public | contract | 1,718,599,044,245 | which-party-will-win-the-2024-us-pr-f4158bf9278a | ChinmayTheMathGuy | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZq896I_Ax8LGfe5H_KMzO98z8XRF1EV3Jg9qYo=s96-c | Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 8aynii5h6vd | null | 7,835.800443 | YES | 2bf0c3888c54 |
eemgjqna9nr | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "That article is riddled with numerous factual errors, and the author didn't even attend Manifest/LessOnline. But I'm not too knowledgeable on this spec... | nikki | av7R6n2rUOMrPTjt9E5b | public | contract | 1,718,599,109,875 | will-lighthaven-be-capable-of-hosti | nikki | Will Lighthaven be capable of hosting a Manifest/LessOnline style event in June 2025? | vwtuj4u7bah | null | null | null | null | |
pc5hw7vhki | false | 9vTEBZiG1ecIDQwH5J5rd9mvBet2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1",
"label": "SaviorofPlant",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "ment... | Lucie | kW5LIBzRcfKQEYKxIpCa | public | contract | 1,718,599,552,859 | which-parties-or-coalitions-will-ga | Aelerinya | Which parties or coalitions will gain seats in the 2024 French legislative election? | null | null | 52.385936 | YES | hti24gm8oh | |
e2ozcs4e53f | false | xNnEsHOTJQZyrss4heMDKy6h4TH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "100% of the equity in Lighthaven is owned by a Jaan Tallinn owned company, so it's not really at risk, though the details are a bit messy. I think it's... | Oliver Habryka | av7R6n2rUOMrPTjt9E5b | public | contract | 1,718,599,813,447 | will-lighthaven-be-capable-of-hosti | OliverHabryka | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gih7N8J7oubVjqQFrQ7F-ZKb7XTST81OuGyRp1vTA=s96-c | Will Lighthaven be capable of hosting a Manifest/LessOnline style event in June 2025? | vwtuj4u7bah | null | null | null | null |
1su66a4vc7d | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | cwQjGiIHkOyaqzcR2Efr | public | contract | 1,718,600,203,326 | will-palestine-be-fully-recognized-cfm30qv59l | strutheo | Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state by the end of 2026? | null | null | null | null | null | |
vnibiuslr2g | false | PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why? I guess it'd be hard to judge.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | horse | X9NDYkvPdFGnManadWqJ | public | contract | 1,718,600,814,477 | if-eliezer-yudkowsky-loses-his-bet | horse | If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why? | oonvp4e71f | null | 780.318454 | YES | 630cf906583d | |
hudkvzvdnv9 | false | PwnWmeHcSlb2CzRNbjuxPkr2ojG3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Dan. W. | tr9b02u0f5 | public | contract | 1,718,600,869,556 | what-weird-unexpected-things-will-c | DanW | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp62lIWkw3f9_ZrkLQFa_pDCqpauwNf9Lu2EI8mA=s96-c | What weird unexpected things will correlate with being a conservative in my planned omnibus correlational survey? | null | null | 43.755932 | YES | m6sjlfwor |
oislccp2z9p | false | 1cr4qlB1WReHhDCyVhQmBrASOzF2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "From ERA5, yeah",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | aenews | 8WvobuEpJHRMvpCzcPK0 | public | contract | 1,718,600,909,206 | will-june-2024-be-the-hottest-june | aenews | Will June 2024 be the hottest June on record? | p98qxmwall | 0.912249 | 39,580.83674 | YES | null | |
l4co1qoy08r | false | 1cr4qlB1WReHhDCyVhQmBrASOzF2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It would clearly count. $2800 is definitely way above any minimum that is assumed for the market, IMO.",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | aenews | ihHv8pPo7l3af9ZrKc54 | public | contract | 1,718,601,016,610 | who-will-get-funding-because-of-the | aenews | Who will get funding because of their pitch at Manifest 2024? | 2xipjh2vuse | null | 29,117.384283 | YES | l22mslxquk | |
26ev5552gqh | false | PwnWmeHcSlb2CzRNbjuxPkr2ojG3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Dan. W. | ExG6QxYkyS3gubWqshkq | public | contract | 1,718,601,022,220 | will-gen-z-men-and-women-become-mor | DanW | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp62lIWkw3f9_ZrkLQFa_pDCqpauwNf9Lu2EI8mA=s96-c | Will Gen Z U.S. men and women become more or less conservative by the end of 2024 as compared to beginning of 2024? | null | null | 93.804287 | NO | 6570f02dbe7d |
ndfyasfx53 | false | AgrPlc2VNxZsP0lT3LCk4E7tFza2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Do proxies count? What about failed attacks?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Daniel Fox | fdup4z2017 | public | contract | 1,718,601,082,982 | will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-ek82txk9yf | DanielFox9fff | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKr20X2_KWfUnifH6Fc3rwkAAF0ne271BX4y6NinXmR=s96-c | Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 150 days of being attacked by them? | null | null | null | null | null |
my8mj9449v | false | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3",
"label": "EvanDaniel",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention... | Evan | X9NnMVUnCSZMEN6oFO8N | public | contract | 1,718,601,343,711 | by-when-will-a-second-starship-supe | EvanDaniel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c | By when will a second Starship / Super Heavy launch tower be operational? | null | null | 3,198.611111 | NO | khta2crs16 |
s9unhaffnub | false | xNnEsHOTJQZyrss4heMDKy6h4TH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Copying my response to almost the same question from over ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content"... | Oliver Habryka | dd7xzz1Nvopy1ojZcR6x | public | contract | 1,718,601,405,836 | will-lighthaven-shut-down-in-2024-d | OliverHabryka | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gih7N8J7oubVjqQFrQ7F-ZKb7XTST81OuGyRp1vTA=s96-c | Will Lighthaven shut down in 2024 due to lack of funds? | rwxi6ot7g7 | null | null | null | null |
09lzeictesfh | false | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolved N/A, creator was banned and deleted account, almost all of the mana traded was the creator, a bot, and a user that was confused about the mark... | Gabrielle | XTBeOx4Yr1uQThj5ck5U | public | contract | 1,718,601,963,179 | will-i-lose-my-life-savings-on-mani | Gabrielle | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | Will I lose my life savings on manifold before the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
5c41x326iut | false | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The main problem is that basically wherever you can use humanoid robots, you'll improve efficiency and reduce cost by using a different shape. Also the... | Martin Modrák | vorv8r9o4l | public | contract | 1,718,602,185,604 | will-there-be-over-1000-optimus-rob | MartinModrak | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c | Will there be over 1000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2026? | c14dnpyfm2w | 0.4 | 630.988069 | NO | null |
j9ah141m90p | false | 8K7OokTvKUWJ8OjAucDKG90Yi4H2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I wouldn't have confidence it was a real effect if it wasn't, but I could probably be persuaded",
"type": "text"
}
],
"ty... | GooGhoul | VKpbJtrAGpH2XdltHX49 | public | contract | 1,718,603,036,628 | will-weai-figure-out-a-way-to-break | GooGhoul | Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy? | pkxmkmnccm9 | 0.097961 | 41.666667 | YES | null | |
mpjfduxdjo | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I should note that I am particularly predisposed to nasal congestion so people shouldn’t update too hard on that symptom. I’ve often taken flonase whe... | Jonathan Ray | cCKe5crr6hlARaVQvGtl | public | contract | 1,718,603,125,839 | will-my-followup-covid-test-be-posi | JonathanRay | Will my follow-up covid test be positive? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ysd8f5vig1e | false | 8K7OokTvKUWJ8OjAucDKG90Yi4H2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It's funny, I only realised the 5 intersection case because I asked Claude to draw the situation. Claude of course had the triangle backwards with two ... | GooGhoul | CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY | public | contract | 1,718,603,302,768 | will-an-llm-be-able-to-solve-confus | GooGhoul | Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024? | b71kmaezd1f | null | null | null | null | |
an7q6rc6o9 | false | h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I guess I should go ahead and resolve this ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Benjamin Ikuta | ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl | public | contract | 1,718,603,328,491 | will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c | benjaminIkuta | Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024? | 1nll4k973rx | null | null | null | null | |
fwgc0kjh2d8 | false | 1RfsLVzFZwaLLXGaSr5yaG5ink23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "2024 arb here ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"cont... | duN | 8jksxFR09Eqb1Owz0Jax | public | contract | 1,718,603,906,738 | will-finland-recognize-a-state-of-p | dgga | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdgga%2F_HQHzw0yrx.0?alt=media&token=b8a7e5fb-51e0-49fa-b18c-463f38fe9ecc | Will Finland recognize a state of Palestine before 2030 | null | 0.285942 | 3,171.783072 | NO | null |
7r1fy8fp7k4 | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If proxies count this should have settled as yes the next day.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"ty... | Shaked Koplewitz | fdup4z2017 | public | contract | 1,718,604,196,361 | will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-ek82txk9yf | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 150 days of being attacked by them? | ndfyasfx53 | null | null | null | null |
ijz9tci83rm | false | 5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "possibly relevant",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
... | ismellpillows | asipPSfytvLZ2NCQu6Fw | public | contract | 1,718,604,569,147 | should-i-ask-out-my-crushwho-also-h | ismellpillows | Should i ask out my crush?
Who also happens to be my best friend 🙂 | null | null | null | null | null | |
3mdum0lf4k7 | false | qIjH5KDOG9WVsa3265yCTICxHjx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "wait... how come you lose more money when you wait to close?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type... | Qoiuoiuoiu | rpINgNCUuLZiHkvZkGjZ | public | contract | 1,718,604,910,894 | major-league-baseball-mlb-regular-s | Qoiuoiuoiu | Major League Baseball (MLB) ⚾Regular Season Matches | i6ztqp3273l | null | 4,941.75748 | YES | 3e8209c0b87f | |
r08l71221vi | false | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You should share links to the relevant information.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
... | Eliza | 1Db5yz7BJd4oRZ7R9aAf | public | contract | 1,718,605,211,362 | will-i-qualify-for-the-2024-icho | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | Will I qualify for the 2024 IChO? | 14d3t37defp | null | null | null | null |
bsu4pm29dr | false | nm6vljMMvUdSxNbjeD7JuVZ69Se2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You are right. Apologies for the mistake and mis-labeling quoting as paraphrasing.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": n... | hansvb | NKM6oCA1aVmnxnYkB9JH | public | contract | 1,718,605,269,140 | will-the-oct-7-rape-claims-be-subst | hansvb | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ_EdNAoax_sKyNBDGr5D6wOxydkbGkOGb8oEaJZT0c384=s96-c | Will the Oct 7 rape claims be substantiated by an independent investigation? | ft36jum0lmm | 0.780058 | 74.529363 | YES | null |
pyb0ybhqero | false | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | David Lin | GUuEipExzjjqhImnYa3N | public | contract | 1,718,605,472,556 | will-i-enter-a-romantic-relationshi-563016689ea2 | dlin007 | Will I enter a romantic relationship with my best friend before 2025 | 4gxhf7y3rln | 0.395477 | 163.899664 | NO | null | |
j83qmduig2j | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Trump shouldn't count, he's already the 45th, you can't have two indexes.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}... | Shaked Koplewitz | 7VZWm9ZiDboTHsmypFVk | public | contract | 1,718,605,828,678 | who-will-become-the-47th-the-next-p | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Who will become the 47th (the next) President of the USA? | null | null | null | null | null |
9sxq17olzjv | false | cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why does this make me angry? On the face of it, it shouldn't. I like people doing strange things. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | lukres | qbzp0UMp450ZEymlpg6u | public | contract | 1,718,606,257,060 | will-i-see-anyone-other-than-myself | lukres | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2 | Will I see anyone other than myself wearing a helmet in a car before the end of 2025? | null | null | null | null | null |
w0u56ba8r2 | false | cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Should be easy if leftists have their way.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | lukres | 7vmsUlo9zjM8L3KwjyR0 | public | contract | 1,718,606,631,388 | will-there-be-a-popular-cure-to-com | lukres | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2 | Will there be a popular cure to common cold before 2035? | oo2yluryimc | 0.1 | 443.405087 | YES | null |
jjfk0ul266e | false | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1",
"label": "FairlyRandom",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | Traveel | 8NBbbZzcx3V5izo2kIIw | public | contract | 1,718,607,061,970 | daily-coinflip-b6rj5o645x | Traveel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | Daily coinflip | null | 0.51 | 23.059991 | YES | null |
dg2b1t8lgcp | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | FairlyRandom | 8NBbbZzcx3V5izo2kIIw | public | contract | 1,718,607,066,629 | daily-coinflip-b6rj5o645x | FairlyRandom | Daily coinflip | null | null | null | null | null | |
4acqxadn16v | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | FairlyRandom | 8NBbbZzcx3V5izo2kIIw | public | contract | 1,718,607,123,214 | daily-coinflip-b6rj5o645x | FairlyRandom | Daily coinflip | null | null | null | null | null | |
msjj7z4yjnd | false | g0GkccVYuYdHjG94LJR12THDB8G3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Some clarifications:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
... | Andrew Elenbogen | MUpR0N41fZgVs0u5DBiR | public | contract | 1,718,607,365,658 | will-gul-dukat-aka-daniel-goetschel | Ajelenbogen | Will Gul Dukat (aka Daniel Goetschel) register Picklock Prankster in one or more major Pioneer events in 2024? | null | 0.947774 | 26.326627 | YES | null | |
agyknft9w4v | false | cDzkzLtyW3VCfKWYsKOF6iKsuV92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The resolution criteria are completely useless to measuring AI progress. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}... | Project Victory | h6EhpRzQZIV2wHqAHvVj | public | contract | 1,718,608,207,922 | will-ai-achieve-superintelligence-i | ProjectVictory | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI4y0VVuOG8tCfdABrtBsS8cUQ6Me5av07oSlAEEoT8=s96-c | Will AI achieve superintelligence in music composition by 2026? | null | null | null | null | null |
06vk7nxb4gzu | false | cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Always good to bet against the climate hysteria",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | lukres | 8WvobuEpJHRMvpCzcPK0 | public | contract | 1,718,608,436,868 | will-june-2024-be-the-hottest-june | lukres | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2 | Will June 2024 be the hottest June on record? | null | 0.917993 | 13,299.282714 | NO | null |
dqsa1g7pubf | false | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Tripping | Ez53lxJyY1klBCSDJ8cC | public | contract | 1,718,608,516,889 | will-mango-win-a-major-by-eoy-2024 | Tripping | Will Mango win a major by EOY 2024? | null | 0.64 | 2,902.024028 | YES | null | |
zhaf2r8b6id | false | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Tripping | wneik2w4aL2ijjZcOdqd | public | contract | 1,718,608,533,544 | will-mango-ever-win-another-major | Tripping | Will Mango ever win another major? | null | 0.868599 | 1,674.27071 | YES | null | |
hc9po4yh10f | false | eieeU345lwUIithZDydMfum1WKG2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Austin had mentioned it I believe in relation to them calling him.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
... | Alex Litzenberger | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,718,608,605,660 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | alexlitz | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | xpl4jje9hid | null | 729.452871 | YES | ppn4qdk4dy | |
e7onvkzfmbt | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "limit at 5% if you want more NO",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pat Scott🩴 | hiypdy59y6 | public | contract | 1,718,609,590,509 | will-it-be-widely-understood-that-t | Stralor | Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035? | null | 0.060458 | 10,000 | YES | null | |
2gf3j8eh0i2 | false | fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It's irrelevant. Even the mediocre well-educated sheep will no longer believe that by then.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type":... | t-bird | YUkqI0EPhMoxjferJU2d | public | contract | 1,718,609,832,803 | by-2025-will-most-welleducated-peop | tbird | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c | By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans? | gyl222b9pz9 | 0.138759 | 1,140.049373 | NO | null |
kkqnojxhp5a | false | 9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "Y1WTcNT9zFVYdCZQ9AYRk8Kzyuw1",
"label": "MostafaHamza",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | Fedor | jMoRpMwL4DISuwcGjIPK | public | contract | 1,718,609,941,724 | will-egypt-open-the-rafah-crossing | Fedor | Will Egypt open the Rafah crossing in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
7nq4edoohdu | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How many times will Former President Donald J. Trump “truth” (aka post) f... | Bruno | lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA | public | contract | 1,718,610,504,864 | trump-truth-market-june-1521 | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Trump Truth Market (June 15-21) | null | null | null | null | null |
e8noaicwiac | false | zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Any markets on any of my accounts count. But ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoA... | Mira | 7PMDUqgMBF9Digd0FfQR | public | contract | 1,718,610,601,277 | how-many-markets-will-mira-create-i | Mira | How many markets will @Mira create in 2024? | 2wwserwh2dp | null | null | null | null | |
gej7fpy7qtq | false | 5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "My position is right up there tbh",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ismellpillows | xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f | public | contract | 1,718,610,775,576 | will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e | ismellpillows | Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8? | l7m6ukqasa | 0.192534 | 14,446.773153 | YES | null | |
boljolhqg4p | false | QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Grover Cleveland is considered the 22nd and 24th President of the United States.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph... | M L | 7VZWm9ZiDboTHsmypFVk | public | contract | 1,718,611,389,649 | who-will-become-the-47th-the-next-p | ML12d1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c | Who will become the 47th (the next) President of the USA? | j83qmduig2j | null | 405.595338 | YES | 5387bdb416d6 |
pzdimd2hdi | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "No he's the 22nd. William McKinley is the 24th.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Shaked Koplewitz | 7VZWm9ZiDboTHsmypFVk | public | contract | 1,718,611,544,252 | who-will-become-the-47th-the-next-p | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Who will become the 47th (the next) President of the USA? | j83qmduig2j | null | null | null | null |
kxo2yec1vfo | false | dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I upgraded the market to plus, but will close before the final match so I can recover some of it.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"... | Alex B. Goode | 5wdifzNBgWUqHlgdMp6a | public | contract | 1,718,611,890,216 | which-team-will-win-the-2024-uefa-e | AlexbGoode | Euro 2024: Which team will win the 2024 UEFA European Football Championship? | null | null | 0 | NO | 01a9e48c7c10 | |
3wislik6eg3 | false | QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If you want to count William McKinley as the 24th, that would make Trump the 44th. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragr... | M L | 7VZWm9ZiDboTHsmypFVk | public | contract | 1,718,612,137,096 | who-will-become-the-47th-the-next-p | ML12d1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c | Who will become the 47th (the next) President of the USA? | j83qmduig2j | null | 405.595338 | YES | 5387bdb416d6 |
jbnsqxbl65 | false | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "And we have USD 1 038 million: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": ... | Martin Modrák | UpseGbpY89xbSPkFFtP9 | public | contract | 1,718,612,316,754 | total-value-of-crypto-stolenscammed-6b1bf3d71866 | MartinModrak | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c | Total value of crypto stolen/scammed between May 16th and Jun 15th as tracked by Molly White (W3IGG) | null | null | null | null | null |
izm5ibrqsd | false | OOuU1xDOeYXmwST8K8XFHi8dedJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yes. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Extinction Risk | VvYa4J5WxaK6ke15h0Tj | public | contract | 1,718,612,346,687 | will-the-giraffe-giraffa-camelopard | ExtinctionRisk | Will the Giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis) become extinct in the current century? | nj097feta4b | null | null | null | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.