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... | James | ro3tpgrVliDMJlmtT2cI | public | contract | 1,718,572,866,084 | bounty-for-reporting-manifold-bugs | JamesGrugett | Bounty for reporting Manifold bugs | 7l5iuv01irh | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Buck | q5ecb9bti8 | public | contract | 1,718,572,872,594 | will-i-be-an-anthropic-employee-on | Buck | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7P8RcGwkzoR932-5Kgcb10TJH5B857rRPxmA__=s96-c | Will I be an Anthropic employee on May 1st, 2025? | z7tj8v2hx3 | 0.636552 | 63.722661 | NO | null |
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"... | stefanie | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,718,582,882,146 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | shankypanky | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | xpl4jje9hid | null | 6,076.616373 | YES | 8a927a207f83 | |
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... | niko | zyvtbg9wns | public | contract | 1,718,583,136,428 | bay-area-bingo-what-will-i-experien-6ufcpdbqcj | Nikos | Bay Area Bingo: what will I experience/encounter while living here for two months? [medium fuse] | null | null | 14.69461 | YES | 43if0fsef8 | |
zfrho5tjo1 | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
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... | stefanie | zyvtbg9wns | public | contract | 1,718,583,201,126 | bay-area-bingo-what-will-i-experien-6ufcpdbqcj | shankypanky | Bay Area Bingo: what will I experience/encounter while living here for two months? [medium fuse] | mhf3o6wcixj | null | 593.794065 | YES | 9ug9mw7pw2 | |
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"text": "The sole classifying of people according to their race is problematic type of inqury. Even if we disregard the possible rasism introduced by that act, ... | ed | 6UnMTbWEzBWEYjeF5OZc | public | contract | 1,718,583,515,481 | is-there-a-genetic-contribution-of | 3d | Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060] | null | null | null | null | null | |
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} | James Dillard | YETGfTN7I4Dtov0Epoim | public | contract | 1,718,583,916,868 | how-many-nba-championships-will-jas | jdilla | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgQ3DNbYEPlxgQPup0iq_AO-L4Z9__n3MX3MtqVpLw=s96-c | How many NBA championships will Jason Tatum win during his career? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "If there is reduction in sick days from work, it should be resolved to yes, right? That is also significantly better prognosis, like, they are going ba... | ed | OEK2wg6Y4Zv3poZEPCZw | public | contract | 1,718,584,192,581 | will-the-prognosis-for-common-cold | 3d | Will the prognosis for common cold patients be significantly better in 2035? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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... | ed | 7vmsUlo9zjM8L3KwjyR0 | public | contract | 1,718,584,356,923 | will-there-be-a-popular-cure-to-com | 3d | Will there be a popular cure to common cold before 2035? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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"text": "If I get 100 AIs to place sports bets and one of them wins $10k (I don’t plan on doing this but it could be done) would that count?",
"type":... | Dominic de Bettencourt | mzblrh7ohe | public | contract | 1,718,584,385,365 | will-an-ai-autonomously-earn-more-t | dominic | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_rYabDlibjswkfie6jTwLYXt1nSx42B8oytNLxA=s96-c | Will an AI autonomously earn more than $10,000 not through financial trading, starting with no more than $100 by 2026? | null | null | null | null | null |
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... | Max Harms | rt0q89sl56 | public | contract | 1,718,584,727,276 | should-manifold-betting-be-zero-sum | MaxHarms | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL0xedDuqyhLuCxjkkUd0pH8wOEEFh2BRRMNMgrdTzG1EU=s96-c | Should Manifold betting be zero sum? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "I think you need to cite a specific investigation for this market to be meaningful. Saying “independent” is vague, especially when you are coming to th... | Archibald Crone | NKM6oCA1aVmnxnYkB9JH | public | contract | 1,718,584,746,852 | will-the-oct-7-rape-claims-be-subst | BlueDragon | Will the Oct 7 rape claims be substantiated by an independent investigation? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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"text": "Also what would you have the independent investigation do? Exhume bodies? Gain access to fighters still alive and confirmed to have taken part? How sho... | Archibald Crone | NKM6oCA1aVmnxnYkB9JH | public | contract | 1,718,584,903,360 | will-the-oct-7-rape-claims-be-subst | BlueDragon | Will the Oct 7 rape claims be substantiated by an independent investigation? | wbcr3llwip | null | null | null | null | |
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"text": "Another data point for context: Amazon already has 750,000+ robots working in their fulfillment centers.",
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}
],
... | Andrew Brown | vorv8r9o4l | public | contract | 1,718,585,458,753 | will-there-be-over-1000-optimus-rob | AndrewBrown | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJeN_apmwR7XocElja1WS8Y9d_4jY6bRKmt-bVdD_cr6FE=s96-c | Will there be over 1000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2026? | c14dnpyfm2w | 0.26629 | 878.993703 | YES | null |
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{
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"text": "are the ties determined using Celsius or Fahrenheit?",
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"type": "doc"... | Daniel | xMjOspsXXAQZwvN9slrm | public | contract | 1,718,585,760,716 | in-new-york-city-on-what-day-will-t | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | In New York City, on what day will the highest temperature of June 2024 be recorded? | efi0dy4zjaj | null | 131.891966 | NO | eje95kgwsi |
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lyw321e881p | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
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"text": "94 to go. 6 Serbians arrested today.",
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],
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} | Predictor 🔥 | UQIVR5EPgi2JSmHoWB5C | public | contract | 1,718,585,827,473 | uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop | Predictor | UEFA Euro Cup 2024 Tournament Prop Bets ⚽ LIVE! | null | null | 176.100363 | YES | ezges79d3y | |
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"text": "Yeah that's exactly my thinking, the Agility Robotics models are doing minimally useful work today and don't appear dramatically ahead of recent Optimu... | Fraser Paine | vorv8r9o4l | public | contract | 1,718,585,917,682 | will-there-be-over-1000-optimus-rob | FraserPaine | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJlpPAdOwFgR3L9jVo7DDqiLgfvD-yBJ_DpFfv_uy5N=s96-c | Will there be over 1000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2026? | c14dnpyfm2w | 0.26629 | 1,055.485118 | YES | null |
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}
],
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],
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} | Stuart Slagle | xMjOspsXXAQZwvN9slrm | public | contract | 1,718,586,034,879 | in-new-york-city-on-what-day-will-t | ovals | In New York City, on what day will the highest temperature of June 2024 be recorded? | efi0dy4zjaj | null | 300.952869 | YES | ndjry44keo | |
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"text": "His age is already an issue for voters in 2024, I didn't think he'd run again in 2028 at 82 (well, hopefully). ",
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... | Andrew Brown | 7VZWm9ZiDboTHsmypFVk | public | contract | 1,718,586,437,815 | who-will-become-the-47th-the-next-p | AndrewBrown | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJeN_apmwR7XocElja1WS8Y9d_4jY6bRKmt-bVdD_cr6FE=s96-c | Who will become the 47th (the next) President of the USA? | u227vu6y1hd | null | 309.522458 | YES | 76b7c77b7c4e |
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"text": "Yes, but if Trump wins in 2024 he'll also be considered the 47th President. So we have to add the probability of Trump winning (let's say 50%) with the... | Stark | 7VZWm9ZiDboTHsmypFVk | public | contract | 1,718,586,605,469 | who-will-become-the-47th-the-next-p | StarkLN | Who will become the 47th (the next) President of the USA? | u227vu6y1hd | null | 355.607529 | YES | a5962ca70f5a | |
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... | Craig Talbert | 8bqvVmVTKFviYwlYfTu0 | public | contract | 1,718,586,693,520 | will-infowars-go-down | CraigTalbert | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c | Will Infowars go down? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "1.1 dif with 2 weeks to go, and very limited time post-debate for it to have a full effect.",
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],
"type":... | Panfilo | h33Uh9g5fryaEhLKHizU | public | contract | 1,718,586,753,260 | will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-3f74609d4b03 | Panfilo | Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of June? | null | 0.310737 | 659.140353 | NO | null | |
4rodehclkh7 | false | aE5DNen5abQazD0RlpGCtTUws2k2 | {
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{
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... | Andrew Brown | MTJvn1ltqhcAQjLCNqrf | public | contract | 1,718,586,912,885 | will-the-tesla-bot-be-available-by | AndrewBrown | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJeN_apmwR7XocElja1WS8Y9d_4jY6bRKmt-bVdD_cr6FE=s96-c | Will the Tesla Bot be available by 2028? | null | null | null | null | null |
l316vhr9nij | false | Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3 | {
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{
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{
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"text": "This! Market creator holding this much in a very politically-charged market very much keeps me from investing.",
"type": "text"
}
... | Enlil | NKM6oCA1aVmnxnYkB9JH | public | contract | 1,718,588,483,953 | will-the-oct-7-rape-claims-be-subst | Enlil | Will the Oct 7 rape claims be substantiated by an independent investigation? | z4fo2037dq | null | null | null | null | |
qjsgl5g8a4l | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
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"text": "44 to go. 50 Italians arrested yesterday.",
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wwlcemxjwo | false | MwhSsHsiOUVVfcZB2eF0PlkoVEs2 | {
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z7nmx10389l | false | rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3 | {
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"text": "Saturday, June 15: 26 posts",
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],
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"type": "doc"
} | Maurice Bransfield | lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA | public | contract | 1,718,589,152,172 | trump-truth-market-june-1521 | MauriceBransfield | Trump Truth Market (June 15-21) | null | null | null | null | null | |
en8ljlopl6f | false | 6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363 | {
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{
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"text": "Zvi already did exactly that: \"resolves to YES if a majority of college educated people would answer this way on a survey\"",
"type": "text"... | James Baker | YUkqI0EPhMoxjferJU2d | public | contract | 1,718,589,300,782 | by-2025-will-most-welleducated-peop | JamesBaker3 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c | By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans? | gyl222b9pz9 | 0.163085 | 5,067.598664 | YES | null |
px7c1ul8eog | false | HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3 | {
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{
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"text": "I'd totally take that bet (50% no FTL developed by AI) let's make it happen",
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],
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... | Odoacre | BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz | public | contract | 1,718,589,609,415 | will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat | Odoacre | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a | Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? | dkgyy1z7jyv | 0.231462 | 560.045129 | NO | null |
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