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4wit32rpbvx
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
5lSzAKdJ4un2AuEKnRSl
public
contract
1,718,839,923,821
fairlyrandom-testing-market
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
FairlyRandom testing market
null
0.504005
12.606074
NO
null
yb04dbr786
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "WE'RE SO BACK", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
yxktdwcvg4
public
contract
1,718,840,111,207
what-will-be-true-of-safe-superinte
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
What will be true of Safe Superintelligence Inc.? [Add Answers]
null
null
35.332256
NO
oaf34kew8x
b0eltwxcv2k
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i33gtGvfnFZwli6Q4Adpjthz4Lw1", "label": "CelebratedWhale", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "me...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
yxktdwcvg4
public
contract
1,718,840,170,547
what-will-be-true-of-safe-superinte
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
What will be true of Safe Superintelligence Inc.? [Add Answers]
null
null
35.332256
NO
oaf34kew8x
o5hy59kncx
false
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Seems to be fixed now, you may need to re-request any rolls that are still pending.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragr...
FairlyRandom
b9u4g13y1q
public
contract
1,718,840,228,473
fairlyrandom-announcements
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
FairlyRandom announcements
l93duldwtro
null
null
null
null
h9d0tvrs72
false
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
David Glidden
TbkRXQhOO3WvbyCMGJgX
public
contract
1,718,840,259,757
when-the-march-madness-basketball-t
dglid
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
When the March Madness basketball tournament expands beyond 68 teams, what number of teams will it expand to?
null
null
91.467627
YES
3dt8f1a5l7
wa3xostiq9h
false
eAB6KSR3CTgm9eM2HL1CEkonnAp1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Should be fixed now, try rolling again", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
A
g98bfvctn8
public
contract
1,718,840,261,012
tuesday-dice-roll-what-number-will
A
https://firebasestorage.…471-35991290f170
Tuesday Dice roll - What number will they land on?
giq0rrtfnte
null
null
null
null
xv61yrf83di
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "5 in joint 3rd. So how was this going to pick 5 in such circumstances?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
Christopher Randles
l2k3t9ejp1
public
contract
1,718,840,279,045
which-of-the-following-is-true-abou
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Which of the following is true about Elon Musk?
null
null
null
null
null
uvwd335jfej
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If you run another event so it becomes twice yearly instead of once ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ],...
chris (strutheo)
cp2uxtuzmy
public
contract
1,718,840,298,206
will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-nex
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will there be a Manifest in the next 2 years?
nmk1mdedlhr
null
null
null
null
r5n06tr0ogo
false
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
David Glidden
514VSuocsy8Vfi4sBNt2
public
contract
1,718,840,305,078
when-will-the-ncaa-division-i-mens
dglid
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
When will the NCAA Division I Men’s basketball tournament (March Madness) expand beyond 68 teams?
null
null
46.575416
YES
e2196db26e69
29s7mpdfvre
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Probably worth calling it something else, having smaller expectations, and running it twice a year if that's the plan.", "type": "text" ...
chris (strutheo)
cp2uxtuzmy
public
contract
1,718,840,328,888
will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-nex
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will there be a Manifest in the next 2 years?
nmk1mdedlhr
null
null
null
null
m5vaix7pape
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Should I just resolve this so we don't wait til eoy ...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "d...
chris (strutheo)
qMv6w3aBIoOHXgQbZqyB
public
contract
1,718,840,389,360
will-ilya-sutskever-announce-they-a
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Ilya Sutskever announce they will work at Anthropic before the end of 2024?
null
0.021264
834.436228
NO
null
ljvxqtkxjul
false
KfZhpN4uQ7hrugsWhNs9y2RL7Lu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Am I missing reading this?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [...
Avi
zUgdc9H0H9xjnEjfiCuu
public
contract
1,718,840,400,386
what-will-be-true-of-ilya-sutskever-34a0d3177ddc
AviD
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKxFjCjez79SV1xvws-_O7DCOtN9H0byglh2wlyR3KcbWI=s96-c
What will be true of Ilya Sutskever's 'next project'? (add answers)
null
null
1,791.012947
YES
2880fba4ad84
9l3xggevu8v
false
pp3fg6e4EybziUJVfMKaDNDAOVh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What about a few (2 or 3 realistically) foreign language lessons?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], ...
mario pasquato
LzcH61daArBbRlxnEI6N
public
contract
1,718,840,405,447
which-10-sub100-purchases-will-most
mariopasquato
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtemzqYFS4zuvOtBu7Ko52uxERLtlEzFHTvhCP-noDEfACs=s96-c
Which 10 sub-$100 purchases will most significantly improve my quality of life in 2024? [Add Suggestions]
null
null
16.236714
YES
787522fa53e0
ub3kvh4c9zi
false
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "lol I didn’t realize I had submitted 2 Marylands", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
David Glidden
lzwiyoeyZyK9BabJbjju
public
contract
1,718,840,444,082
manifold-competition-state-vanity-l
dglid
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
[Manifold Competition] State Vanity License Plate Civil War
owpq1obi01
null
0
NO
328c067f565b
ji6glx8pesa
false
eAB6KSR3CTgm9eM2HL1CEkonnAp1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Seems to be fixed now but I think you'll need to reroll", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "d...
A
0ps25hga1l
public
contract
1,718,840,617,202
daily-coinflip-95e250c427
A
https://firebasestorage.…471-35991290f170
Daily coinflip
psn7bhtokm
null
null
null
null
owry4t40h6o
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
3N0ra4TBpi95usgQmA6G
public
contract
1,718,840,732,640
will-the-effective-altruism-movemen-63837c974573
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will the Effective Altruism movement suffer a scandal more damaging than the FTX crash by the end of 2024?
null
0.056654
151.199058
YES
null
4oh2frkgja3
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Good luck!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nat
asipPSfytvLZ2NCQu6Fw
public
contract
1,718,841,361,231
should-i-ask-out-my-crushwho-also-h
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
Should i ask out my crush? Who also happens to be my best friend 🙂
ot5og8ghm0q
1
11.806468
NO
null
ar5i8d0a71m
false
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Austin still has equity, he's just not vesting anymore. I think the question should have been about who is last to be employed by Manifold, but that's ...
James
Wx2WVGcDiQr9YnM7ZpLv
public
contract
1,718,841,809,773
who-will-be-the-last-manifold-found
JamesGrugett
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
Who will be the last Manifold founder left standing?
8r3wt7jn5k
null
928.312548
YES
84cbb0d22440
tzcoj2jhrpc
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Meteor", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": n...
Christopher Randles
sQD07sR4C8ejRK6mDonY
public
contract
1,718,842,004,777
will-a-meteor-regardless-of-size-ca
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will a meteor, regardless of size, cause catastrophic damage to a spacecraft prior to June 20th 2024
null
null
null
null
null
5istd9qsz5x
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "oh yeah that seems kinda dumb", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
Wx2WVGcDiQr9YnM7ZpLv
public
contract
1,718,842,047,199
who-will-be-the-last-manifold-found
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Who will be the last Manifold founder left standing?
8r3wt7jn5k
null
10.120951
YES
811795767fd8
seopsc6oa7q
false
zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Public\" means \"publicly-traded\" i.e. it has a stock ticker on a stock exchange.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "parag...
Mira
zUgdc9H0H9xjnEjfiCuu
public
contract
1,718,842,112,601
what-will-be-true-of-ilya-sutskever-34a0d3177ddc
Mira
https://firebasestorage.…959-42404b37a55f
What will be true of Ilya Sutskever's 'next project'? (add answers)
ljvxqtkxjul
null
532.907515
NO
2880fba4ad84
m4cglazt9js
false
KfZhpN4uQ7hrugsWhNs9y2RL7Lu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "ah i totally missed that never trade on insufficient sleep ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type"...
Avi
zUgdc9H0H9xjnEjfiCuu
public
contract
1,718,842,202,285
what-will-be-true-of-ilya-sutskever-34a0d3177ddc
AviD
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKxFjCjez79SV1xvws-_O7DCOtN9H0byglh2wlyR3KcbWI=s96-c
What will be true of Ilya Sutskever's 'next project'? (add answers)
ljvxqtkxjul
null
1,791.012947
YES
2880fba4ad84
7yx6891zgjb
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
RemNi
oP5iDVbpwA12AVEJZEHW
public
contract
1,718,842,227,563
will-both-upcoming-paradox-dlcs-win-e083d3ba3214
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will both upcoming Paradox DLCs, Winds of Change (eu4) and The Machine Age (stellaris), get good reviews on Steam?
null
0.051946
38.945811
NO
null
2xl66frdu9m
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Looks like Winds of Change is mixed and The Machine Age is very positive", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, ...
RemNi
IphzkNc50wKcyCWgzbfU
public
contract
1,718,842,294,602
will-both-upcoming-paradox-dlcs-win
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will both upcoming Paradox DLCs, Winds of Change (eu4) and The Machine Age (stellaris), get bad reviews on Steam?
null
0.040888
41.505951
NO
null
2eeq42mla8c
false
uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolution source does", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bolton Bailey
VABqOcYpGWTLV74bOpTI
public
contract
1,718,842,329,111
programming-languages-with-over-15
BoltonBailey
https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103
Programming languages with over 1.5% market share at the end of 2024
nocdyja1of
null
91.031105
NO
d024f2a37029
q0de01ka3ji
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "ADT reports numbers like 2.4 and such.. only subjective Dvorak reports numbers in p.5 increments", "type": "text" } ], "t...
JRP
2N0pMWAZWaF1Z99P4Wax
public
contract
1,718,842,460,489
is-a-tropical-storm-forming-in-the
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
Is a tropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico? (June 2024)
4y9nbitxpet
1
0
NO
null
gjmac5ite4
false
wwuaYatAY3bXzQ6i9xC4H48GZgr1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Probably, will bet later.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Guilherme sampaio de oliveira
4RpVk4SXpm9lcpgprvPr
public
contract
1,718,842,542,610
will-javier-milei-finish-his-first
Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKoJOpm-sb0ENGUKYt8F0z4JclT_9o-RGiWD3ED5lpC=s96-c
Will Javier Milei finish his first term as the president of Argentina?
null
null
null
null
null
whmyjun0vcf
false
wwuaYatAY3bXzQ6i9xC4H48GZgr1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Who voted less than 85?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Guilherme sampaio de oliveira
3x3BA07B5yd1Ml7VNeKi
public
contract
1,718,842,609,210
what-is-your-iq
Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKoJOpm-sb0ENGUKYt8F0z4JclT_9o-RGiWD3ED5lpC=s96-c
What is your IQ?
null
null
null
null
null
r7hs1plgl2e
false
rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I will say that this idea has the important upside of it actually mattering that it's crystal. Being crystal doesn't affect a marriage market much beca...
Tumbles ♠︎ Meme Rising
03JkrctMNrVKNTJBbxFW
public
contract
1,718,842,993,205
-what-question-will-i-use-my-free-c
Tumbles
https://firebasestorage.…8aa-654bdc115c8d
What question will I use my free crystal on? 🔮
2jexkbmasap
null
1,726.33193
YES
bl3fs76ti8
y1i3aosu9yj
false
SSKYLpyT7IR50fzTKBkQKqsgnDz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Alfie
uRXztjCgkIOi73AqRQZD
public
contract
1,718,843,209,968
will-an-ai-generated-tiktok-video-r
Alfie
https://firebasestorage.…cbb-80849f4d2564
Will an AI generated TikTok video reach 10M views before 2025?
l9wxmtgyuw8
0.974301
4,341.145778
YES
null
4ovavm4gr8b
false
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How come this is so high? Are there any specific candidates bettors think will be elected?", "type": "text" } ], "type": ...
N.C. Young
z1HKkBl9Yt6570NKYNZ7
public
contract
1,718,843,258,660
will-any-manifest-attendees-be-elec
NcyRocks
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
Will any Manifest attendees be elected to public office in 2026 or earlier?
null
null
null
null
null
u7zf77k5s5r
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "ah thanks! I think for the 14 million one the audio track disqualifies it: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, ...
RemNi
uRXztjCgkIOi73AqRQZD
public
contract
1,718,843,347,168
will-an-ai-generated-tiktok-video-r
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will an AI generated TikTok video reach 10M views before 2025?
l9wxmtgyuw8
0.974301
34.03698
YES
null
t4t57emboe
false
SSKYLpyT7IR50fzTKBkQKqsgnDz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Oh my bad lol I had the video on mute so I thought it was silent", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "...
Alfie
uRXztjCgkIOi73AqRQZD
public
contract
1,718,843,453,146
will-an-ai-generated-tiktok-video-r
Alfie
https://firebasestorage.…cbb-80849f4d2564
Will an AI generated TikTok video reach 10M views before 2025?
l9wxmtgyuw8
0.974301
4,341.145778
YES
null
i3dvcm81d2p
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm 90% sure the cat one is a human voice with autotune, but not totally sure", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
RemNi
uRXztjCgkIOi73AqRQZD
public
contract
1,718,843,531,007
will-an-ai-generated-tiktok-video-r
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will an AI generated TikTok video reach 10M views before 2025?
l9wxmtgyuw8
0.974301
34.03698
YES
null
qhdnyhywxp
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's interesting seeing what's actually getting the views on tiktok 6 months after asking the question haha", "type": "text" } ...
RemNi
uRXztjCgkIOi73AqRQZD
public
contract
1,718,843,568,077
will-an-ai-generated-tiktok-video-r
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will an AI generated TikTok video reach 10M views before 2025?
l9wxmtgyuw8
0.974301
34.03698
YES
null
39tas9r9mop
false
BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ah, my bad for assuming they referred to the same method.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "a...
For Truth
2N0pMWAZWaF1Z99P4Wax
public
contract
1,718,844,087,878
is-a-tropical-storm-forming-in-the
ForTruth
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c
Is a tropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico? (June 2024)
4y9nbitxpet
1
3,794.993411
NO
null
d82ssrqc7nb
false
ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I feel like all the gene selection ones go clearly into left-wing. Personally, I'm iffy about that stuff but I think it's ", "type": "text" ...
Stark
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,718,844,215,836
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
StarkLN
https://firebasestorage.…b7b-8e8f10700842
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
4k28x8npvpp
null
108.23403
NO
axgksbms91
spf9c1kve7f
false
KQIZEaeOOwVatEt07ktQ1mV4CMk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "From ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
nsokolsky
hRTc0hK0Ttx28UlhuhaY
public
contract
1,718,844,236,593
will-the-port-of-baltimore-restore
nsokolsky
https://firebasestorage.…3fd-0bf53e95c42d
Will the port of Baltimore restore normal operations by the end of 2024?
null
0.848338
87.623161
YES
null
ac0m6v1xip7
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Creator appears to be inactive but clarification would still be valuable, would asking mods be worthwhile?", "type": "text" } ]...
Nat
Gwb6W9dQiMCwQVZYdlUp
public
contract
1,718,844,261,753
how-many-months-from-june-2022-will-8ef3ce651194
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
How many months from June 2022 will it take for Starship to reach orbit and safely land?
NswXFgvjFutNA7A4F20Q
null
null
null
null
8yb9h2113hx
false
ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If you hold willingness to exercise constant (or maybe higher if he’s motivated) and then add semaglutide, I think you’ll see more weight loss as you’l...
Craig Talbert
ukksz6xkhg
public
contract
1,718,844,364,247
will-i-lose-20-lbs-after-taking-sem
CraigTalbert
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c
Will I lose 20+ lbs after taking semaglutide for 3 months?
hvaprjafamm
0.219747
152.865956
YES
null
qmh1dyjjxzl
false
KQIZEaeOOwVatEt07ktQ1mV4CMk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Moved the close date to Nov 1st, 2025. I suspect the war will last at least 6 more months and then it'll take a few months for the full list of casualt...
nsokolsky
qQT4GVPDkf9pAU3YQNO6
public
contract
1,718,844,552,454
bins-up-to-256000-death-toll-in-202
nsokolsky
https://firebasestorage.…3fd-0bf53e95c42d
[Bins up to 256,000] Death Toll in 2023 Israel Hamas war - Palestinian side
null
null
0
NO
ae138d27ce5b
kajsvm5dlg
false
0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I had a max BMI of 41, clinically obese, and was prescribed a few medications at different times to encourage weight loss. From my experience, you can’...
Magnus
ukksz6xkhg
public
contract
1,718,844,708,190
will-i-lose-20-lbs-after-taking-sem
thepurplebull
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c
Will I lose 20+ lbs after taking semaglutide for 3 months?
null
null
null
null
null
htvdu9z7l8p
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It seems to me that Super Heavy Booster reaches space but doesn't reach orbit so has to be 2nd stage Starship. ", "type": "text" }, ...
Christopher Randles
Gwb6W9dQiMCwQVZYdlUp
public
contract
1,718,844,905,175
how-many-months-from-june-2022-will-8ef3ce651194
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
How many months from June 2022 will it take for Starship to reach orbit and safely land?
NswXFgvjFutNA7A4F20Q
0.630575
26.464171
YES
null
zyql7eu5us
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Haws
g98bfvctn8
public
contract
1,718,845,003,183
tuesday-dice-roll-what-number-will
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Tuesday Dice roll - What number will they land on?
null
null
271.450173
YES
opc1py9vlh
wxy98yyqywp
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Haws
g98bfvctn8
public
contract
1,718,845,015,496
tuesday-dice-roll-what-number-will
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Tuesday Dice roll - What number will they land on?
null
null
271.450173
YES
opc1py9vlh
no4tedffri
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just called the rolls, doesn't seem to be commenting", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc"...
Haws
g98bfvctn8
public
contract
1,718,845,098,052
tuesday-dice-roll-what-number-will
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Tuesday Dice roll - What number will they land on?
giq0rrtfnte
null
271.450173
YES
opc1py9vlh
5o3dm32y4s5
false
eAB6KSR3CTgm9eM2HL1CEkonnAp1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
A
5lSzAKdJ4un2AuEKnRSl
public
contract
1,718,845,154,893
fairlyrandom-testing-market
A
https://firebasestorage.…471-35991290f170
FairlyRandom testing market
null
0.504005
3.980873
YES
null
z44xp3zj4m
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
5lSzAKdJ4un2AuEKnRSl
public
contract
1,718,845,157,536
fairlyrandom-testing-market
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
FairlyRandom testing market
null
0.504005
12.606074
NO
null
8x6onwfdpqy
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
5lSzAKdJ4un2AuEKnRSl
public
contract
1,718,845,204,466
fairlyrandom-testing-market
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
FairlyRandom testing market
null
0.504005
12.606074
NO
null
fhy703r86e
false
eAB6KSR3CTgm9eM2HL1CEkonnAp1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "@FairlyRandom 999", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ ...
A
g98bfvctn8
public
contract
1,718,845,217,525
tuesday-dice-roll-what-number-will
A
https://firebasestorage.…471-35991290f170
Tuesday Dice roll - What number will they land on?
null
null
null
null
null
xq2sqtbdxlq
false
eAB6KSR3CTgm9eM2HL1CEkonnAp1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
A
g98bfvctn8
public
contract
1,718,845,300,860
tuesday-dice-roll-what-number-will
A
https://firebasestorage.…471-35991290f170
Tuesday Dice roll - What number will they land on?
null
null
null
null
null
8hv3b7vj4dt
false
eAB6KSR3CTgm9eM2HL1CEkonnAp1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Huh weird, it's working in the FairlyRandom test market but not here...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
A
g98bfvctn8
public
contract
1,718,845,376,607
tuesday-dice-roll-what-number-will
A
https://firebasestorage.…471-35991290f170
Tuesday Dice roll - What number will they land on?
giq0rrtfnte
null
null
null
null
63qkx5q5n1f
false
6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "label": "10thOfficial", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Tyler
UQIVR5EPgi2JSmHoWB5C
public
contract
1,718,845,387,683
uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop
Tyler31
https://firebasestorage.…369-1e31d65cea92
UEFA Euro Cup 2024 Tournament Prop Bets ⚽ LIVE!
null
null
3,190.654988
YES
vc2r6tc9t8
xyqyj738ys
false
em5cYfHRh1b5qu1hgpfZiNqOELr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I have absolutely no clue about basketball, so I can’t compare.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { ...
Gideon
geiwsE1onCn4LAnpkXxE
public
contract
1,718,845,414,042
will-joshua-kimmich-play-as-a-midfi
Gideon37
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJgWS0P6It5V1UWwE65A1u9nwHfxpp1TvnxyGgqr54x=s96-c
Will Joshua Kimmich play as a midfielder at UEFA Euro 2024?
0q1vd3gamy
null
null
null
null
1rrvtafht6fh
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "My understanding is drugs of this type produce a profound effect on diet, so \"without changing anything else\" still carries a lot of weight if the pa...
Eliza
ukksz6xkhg
public
contract
1,718,845,431,176
will-i-lose-20-lbs-after-taking-sem
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Will I lose 20+ lbs after taking semaglutide for 3 months?
kajsvm5dlg
0.220077
69.485928
NO
null
ookubn3wtq
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JDWfUBan8sfznLDCqOCavHToD5a2", "label": "dp9000", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Nat
X0iRFqvHTyH4RcPiGAkW
public
contract
1,718,845,528,282
before-which-launch-will-the-faa-gr
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
Which will be the first Starship launch authorised under a multi-launch license? #FAA
htktm4xly28
null
null
null
null
u99jk27uepd
false
0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "IMO the main thing Trump is considering is who is pro-MAGA but also appeases neoconservatives. Non-establishment but also politically experienced. ", ...
Magnus
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,718,845,559,807
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
thepurplebull
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
k3uvpp3m9pm
null
432.207583
YES
e91f19e97efd
9qja8xofaef
false
eAB6KSR3CTgm9eM2HL1CEkonnAp1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "@FairlyRandom 3", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
A
5lSzAKdJ4un2AuEKnRSl
public
contract
1,718,845,572,599
fairlyrandom-testing-market
A
https://firebasestorage.…471-35991290f170
FairlyRandom testing market
null
0.504005
3.980873
YES
null
52c6jhalo3d
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
5lSzAKdJ4un2AuEKnRSl
public
contract
1,718,845,574,590
fairlyrandom-testing-market
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
FairlyRandom testing market
null
0.504005
12.606074
NO
null
cb0jtsdxubd
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "21 comments and no one mentioned Snow Crash. Disappointed at the professionalism.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragrap...
JRP
2c3CKlKj7p0Kxny237Up
public
contract
1,718,845,585,299
will-an-adversarial-attack-for-the
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
Will an adversarial attack for the human brain, a la "basilisk" from BLIT, be discovered by 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
8aee8hdlpa
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
5lSzAKdJ4un2AuEKnRSl
public
contract
1,718,845,624,311
fairlyrandom-testing-market
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
FairlyRandom testing market
null
0.504005
12.606074
NO
null
41wyr1vca9c
false
eAB6KSR3CTgm9eM2HL1CEkonnAp1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I guess you could just do the roll in the test market and post the result here?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph"...
A
g98bfvctn8
public
contract
1,718,845,676,695
tuesday-dice-roll-what-number-will
A
https://firebasestorage.…471-35991290f170
Tuesday Dice roll - What number will they land on?
giq0rrtfnte
null
null
null
null
9ngo1sjzvzi
false
eAB6KSR3CTgm9eM2HL1CEkonnAp1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
A
0ps25hga1l
public
contract
1,718,845,816,285
daily-coinflip-95e250c427
A
https://firebasestorage.…471-35991290f170
Daily coinflip
null
null
null
null
null
h0swfm5ws77
false
zSHLMXq81IakUqywKcVuwUWoIbS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A-amazing stock guys dont look how much i invested i just think it's actually really good and i wont sell the minis ute it goes up", "type":...
JoJo fan Self diagnosed
GJJKNNWUw5lYK59EGDbT
public
contract
1,718,845,817,791
kizaru-stock
JoJofanSelfdiagnosed
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI_LjgJBHARyabZ2JY4Zg8okrDmhteCw1V-cFwZ9n9F6-FMebxH=s96-c
Kizaru Stock
null
0.909298
1,624.868942
YES
null
u6fkry7fg8
false
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Trainer wins after 2 days at Royal ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "mark...
Stuart Slagle
nSD1tLVh8tslKSkKPl6D
public
contract
1,718,845,845,174
which-trainer-will-win-the-most-202
ovals
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
Which Trainer Will Win The Most 2024 Royal Ascot Races?
null
null
156.971022
YES
vpn37v3yts
2wssd0dityq
false
0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Magnus
2sotdwfa5p
public
contract
1,718,845,846,050
what-will-be-the-maximum-strength-o
thepurplebull
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c
What will be the maximum strength of Tropical Storm Alberto?
null
null
null
null
null
zuf8tiz576
false
SSKYLpyT7IR50fzTKBkQKqsgnDz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yeah there is some very... interesting content. Lots of videos with AI generated visuals that have >10M views but most of them seem to use generic tikt...
Alfie
uRXztjCgkIOi73AqRQZD
public
contract
1,718,845,868,676
will-an-ai-generated-tiktok-video-r
Alfie
https://firebasestorage.…cbb-80849f4d2564
Will an AI generated TikTok video reach 10M views before 2025?
l9wxmtgyuw8
0.974301
4,341.145778
YES
null
wsfh2dvdj7f
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "He can do it, I believe in him", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Savior of Plant
2sotdwfa5p
public
contract
1,718,845,892,840
what-will-be-the-maximum-strength-o
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
What will be the maximum strength of Tropical Storm Alberto?
2wssd0dityq
null
2,152.909456
YES
iyirfvnuv3
acx0ca1dsf
false
eAB6KSR3CTgm9eM2HL1CEkonnAp1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "@FairlyRandom 10", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
A
ikM3xStxFWypteCnpGrv
public
contract
1,718,846,043,445
will-fairlyrandom-produce-any-buggy
A
https://firebasestorage.…471-35991290f170
Will FairlyRandom produce any buggy output on this market?
null
null
null
null
null
4uluqwbs2n4
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
ikM3xStxFWypteCnpGrv
public
contract
1,718,846,047,500
will-fairlyrandom-produce-any-buggy
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Will FairlyRandom produce any buggy output on this market?
null
null
null
null
null
euqid3m1wf
false
eAB6KSR3CTgm9eM2HL1CEkonnAp1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "@FairlyRandom 8", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
A
6Kt81ZkyZbNrbnIOiWxM
unlisted
contract
1,718,846,080,277
test-market-23
A
https://firebasestorage.…471-35991290f170
Test market 23
null
0.36274
28.54878
NO
null
lotxz0xud1
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
ikM3xStxFWypteCnpGrv
public
contract
1,718,846,102,072
will-fairlyrandom-produce-any-buggy
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Will FairlyRandom produce any buggy output on this market?
null
null
null
null
null
2tgfizegs9w
false
eAB6KSR3CTgm9eM2HL1CEkonnAp1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
A
6Kt81ZkyZbNrbnIOiWxM
public
contract
1,718,846,145,416
test-market-23
A
https://firebasestorage.…471-35991290f170
Test market 23
null
0.36274
28.54878
NO
null
jfmoo9e1tl
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
chris (strutheo)
e0OVJQIAAHKXRofxlvI8
public
contract
1,718,846,177,801
will-israel-declare-war-on-hezbolla
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah before the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
q70ynrod2w
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Anything that requires IVF is surely left-wing, since many on the right believe IVF is murder, or that it's immoral because it involves procreation wit...
Plasma Ballin'
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,718,846,184,184
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
4k28x8npvpp
null
529.468239
YES
fe4488ef81bd
ns4hen7nfx
false
KNqZAiItmVTCX0LzUcj8Twg7tnh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
snazzlePop
Ghfbkc7dEhsX8lD8coVd
public
contract
1,718,846,405,840
will-there-be-an-israelhamas-ceasef-931c6567e17b
snazzlePop
https://firebasestorage.…4df-4312e7a7f92b
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of June 21?
null
0.012008
61.224337
NO
null
0e48321bxltb
false
HMYslTDAGjXYifJsz7V7m1BL1Cm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If there was no crisis, then only no crisis will the answer.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { ...
footgun
G0m40MW0WYOyqhxP2hDr
public
contract
1,718,846,479,807
what-will-be-the-biggest-crisis-fac
footgun
https://firebasestorage.…979-84cc7a804f11
What will be the biggest crisis faced by Singapore in 2024?
d73p726qya7
null
37.399111
YES
e2be5d98b7d1
wot8p3m2zo
false
jOdiXkGC6QPazkFUjacbA2OHswt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "13plihwXYbcbcOexVdT6FwxILnn2", "label": "siraben", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
NexVeridian
PHn2JaQBSr3Fdn8PJekw
public
contract
1,718,846,747,168
will-robinhood-gold-cost-more-than
NexVeridian
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1VzI6YU_qgkYW-JYbpP2kCqXo3Hdmm3H8hnGiY=s96-c
Will Robinhood Gold cost more than $5/month before 2026?
null
null
null
null
null
6kkngtbph1v
false
ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Stark
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,718,846,846,345
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
StarkLN
https://firebasestorage.…b7b-8e8f10700842
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
4k28x8npvpp
null
108.23403
NO
axgksbms91
8jgyqlde7ie
false
eAB6KSR3CTgm9eM2HL1CEkonnAp1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "@FairlyRandom 2", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
A
6Kt81ZkyZbNrbnIOiWxM
public
contract
1,718,846,865,123
test-market-23
A
https://firebasestorage.…471-35991290f170
Test market 23
null
0.36274
28.54878
NO
null
gxjt2stb8kf
false
ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does Manifold have an edit comment feature that I haven't discovered", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ],...
Stark
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,718,847,048,752
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
StarkLN
https://firebasestorage.…b7b-8e8f10700842
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
4k28x8npvpp
null
108.23403
NO
axgksbms91
lng5ujc508
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "In the ... Menu on the comment itself ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "a...
stefanie
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,718,847,103,763
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
4k28x8npvpp
null
null
null
null
uw2u8a5h08n
false
eAB6KSR3CTgm9eM2HL1CEkonnAp1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "@FairlyRandom 8", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
A
6Kt81ZkyZbNrbnIOiWxM
public
contract
1,718,847,133,219
test-market-23
A
https://firebasestorage.…471-35991290f170
Test market 23
null
0.36274
28.54878
NO
null
h8qjzs4hc0a
false
wwuaYatAY3bXzQ6i9xC4H48GZgr1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Guilherme sampaio de oliveira
1QxUzupUmQ3m8pTAmCgR
public
contract
1,718,847,220,933
nintendo-switch-2-integrates-a-micr
Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKoJOpm-sb0ENGUKYt8F0z4JclT_9o-RGiWD3ED5lpC=s96-c
Nintendo Switch 2 integrates a microphone.
null
null
null
null
null
i8p3mtykx5
false
9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Would you count a termination of Rent Day, in whole or in part, as a NO criteria? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragra...
Quroe
zt3lxjtje7
public
contract
1,718,847,411,505
will-the-bilt-mastercard-remain-sta
Quroe
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c
Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?
null
0.415715
119.50778
YES
null
q7rgzwifirj
false
9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This just in from the future, \"Tech Bro Starts AI Jesus Co. Because of Internet Bet\".", "type": "text" } ], "type": "pa...
Quroe
17WWzAoSOnGKC3zHKs5F
public
contract
1,718,847,785,457
will-there-be-a-jesus-ai-startup-wo
Quroe
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c
Will there be a Jesus AI startup worth $20+ million by 2026
uPhMPTyFL1v8vSdqtDYg
null
null
null
null
lpc0xgsv37
false
eAB6KSR3CTgm9eM2HL1CEkonnAp1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Some markets are not showing up in the group API and therefore are not receiving comments correctly -- unclear why.", "type": "text" ...
A
b9u4g13y1q
public
contract
1,718,847,993,642
fairlyrandom-announcements
A
https://firebasestorage.…471-35991290f170
FairlyRandom announcements
null
null
null
null
null
8g39fsdrl53
false
ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Stark
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,718,848,135,132
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
StarkLN
https://firebasestorage.…b7b-8e8f10700842
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
4k28x8npvpp
null
108.23403
NO
axgksbms91
mmusrmpau1
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "better than knowing it later :) ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "conte...
stefanie
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,718,849,656,972
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
4k28x8npvpp
null
null
null
null
jvk7y91ss6
false
13plihwXYbcbcOexVdT6FwxILnn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think they’re testing this for some users. I don’t see it myself and online some people report seeing an increase too. This will resolve when the fee...
siraben
PHn2JaQBSr3Fdn8PJekw
public
contract
1,718,849,663,956
will-robinhood-gold-cost-more-than
siraben
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIs4A4vujbdVB1d-wqB5ZbOQIv-B3jMwt3yjf6luBMT=s96-c
Will Robinhood Gold cost more than $5/month before 2026?
wot8p3m2zo
null
null
null
null
m0d3hdygjv
false
0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "well it's not like we can tell whether you actually shared it on twitter. how would that even work. don't tell anyone but the sharing quest is on the h...
Sinclair Chen
8rlDDxnOzsyk6TdnAykH
public
contract
1,718,849,838,904
does-pressing-the-share-button-comp
Sinclair
https://firebasestorage.…39f-fbdfef31a3ac
Does pressing the "Share" button complete the "Share 1 market today" quest for you today?
null
null
null
null
null
tr2j46s794m
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Finally some ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
Al Quinn
jd7meRtbuEFicjn3JvBm
public
contract
1,718,849,870,617
who-will-be-the-first-female-potus
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
Who will be the first female president of the U.S.?
null
null
483.982129
YES
308ddb36c907
ktjdr9jcso
false
GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pZhhCiotPBTyYdpO8Ue5L0pgm2v2", "label": "AndrewEdstrom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "ment...
Ansel
Ru1S6qJwF73r4J86E8P3
public
contract
1,718,849,933,261
what-will-trump-do-during-his-secon
Ansel
https://firebasestorage.…469-935b0d72b0a1
What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?
null
null
119.756405
YES
8ujixpxvhp
3yplp0q8fpa
false
hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "code" } ], "text": "games of no chance", "type": "text" },...
Jacob
noI1zgQxQ7W5DsMyxBgY
public
contract
1,718,849,982,896
is-syzygy-on-the-glowfic-constellat-4280bdaa1413
JiSK
https://firebasestorage.…349-af2fc0450800
Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky, writing alone?
dfpvag3ltrm
0.35
206.172694
NO
null
0n5x3ymvby4r
false
pZhhCiotPBTyYdpO8Ue5L0pgm2v2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It resolves yes if he attempts to pardon himself. I will update the language accordingly.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "...
Andrew Edstrom
Ru1S6qJwF73r4J86E8P3
public
contract
1,718,850,257,022
what-will-trump-do-during-his-secon
AndrewEdstrom
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLuV0OY1dS8LSQJXNLlf3blEP0XNBh49FBAXg6JiDTTsKI=s96-c
What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?
ktjdr9jcso
null
19.487719
YES
e2f867da7dee
jh07en15ikq
false
pZhhCiotPBTyYdpO8Ue5L0pgm2v2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It resolves yes if he attempts to pardon himself.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Andrew Edstrom
Ru1S6qJwF73r4J86E8P3
public
contract
1,718,850,277,866
what-will-trump-do-during-his-secon
AndrewEdstrom
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLuV0OY1dS8LSQJXNLlf3blEP0XNBh49FBAXg6JiDTTsKI=s96-c
What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?
ktjdr9jcso
null
19.487719
YES
e2f867da7dee
sdqf2idr8ge
false
ygLJeOBhIXP8stVUOKUgtCi1Mdt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"(per NYSE market close last trading day of the year)\" what does that mean? Isn't Nvidia traded on Nasdaq?", "type": "text" } ...
Metastable
ze179ajynt
public
contract
1,718,850,296,402
will-nvda-have-the-largest-market-c-wxiymyz882
Metastable
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSpirit59%2FxrikxR-98A.%20zupa?alt=media&token=7af37655-01c8-4c16-a121-ce95d9d6a73b
Will $NVDA have the largest market cap EOY 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
77d23oww137
false
pZhhCiotPBTyYdpO8Ue5L0pgm2v2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "(Turns out I cannot update the language in the question, nor delete the second comment that I posted accidentally. Sorry!)", "type": "text" ...
Andrew Edstrom
Ru1S6qJwF73r4J86E8P3
public
contract
1,718,850,324,100
what-will-trump-do-during-his-secon
AndrewEdstrom
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLuV0OY1dS8LSQJXNLlf3blEP0XNBh49FBAXg6JiDTTsKI=s96-c
What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?
ktjdr9jcso
null
19.487719
YES
e2f867da7dee
a0jd4h5s795
false
U63xexgO2Cebw3ZnyRHJ9ssHfui2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "[Removed]", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliot
zt3lxjtje7
public
contract
1,718,850,782,084
will-the-bilt-mastercard-remain-sta
eliot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfDdlMXLAUeGjbpftcJiAgOHaluXWk-aT2uLji8EylC6WiZ=s96-c
Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?
i8p3mtykx5
null
null
null
null
keqd521736
false
U63xexgO2Cebw3ZnyRHJ9ssHfui2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hm I don’t know. Rent Day doesn’t feel like a primary function of what makes the Bilt card unique / good value for most people, but rather an additiona...
Eliot
zt3lxjtje7
public
contract
1,718,850,787,324
will-the-bilt-mastercard-remain-sta
eliot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfDdlMXLAUeGjbpftcJiAgOHaluXWk-aT2uLji8EylC6WiZ=s96-c
Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?
i8p3mtykx5
null
null
null
null