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... | Benjamin Ikuta | bva5plix7i | public | contract | 1,718,957,940,884 | will-lord-miles-walk-across-the-us | benjaminIkuta | Will Lord Miles walk across the US? | 4wmaj0lo637 | null | null | null | null | |
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"text": "i assume this resolves to no given that i don't think anyone held the probablity at 277%",
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"type": "p... | Qoiuoiuoiu | jwkaakx7af | public | contract | 1,718,958,392,145 | the-market-xtreme-edition | Qoiuoiuoiu | "The Market": X-treme Edition | null | 0.001765 | 1,634.890122 | NO | null | |
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} | Pat Scott🩴 | KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm | public | contract | 1,718,958,631,001 | will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24 | Stralor | Will I eat ass in the next 24...? | crkbf4zq4el | null | 282.45773 | YES | a06afbcc5807 | |
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"text": "JIC: the video recently posted on Robert Miles 2 does not count towards the resolution of this market, as per Caveat 1, although I do recommend watchin... | MayMeta | 6g9QVGcRcnaHuGhvZ7t9 | public | contract | 1,718,958,939,432 | how-soon-will-rob-miles-post-his-ne | MayMeta | How soon will Rob Miles post his next video after "AI Ruined My Year"? | null | null | 2,524.14027 | NO | 88ne7by6dh | |
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"text": "What if he qualifies it, saying Taiwan should pay us money first, then when they don't he doesn't help.",
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... | Jessica Evans | VbSjkDh97t4NTpUaEL5k | public | contract | 1,718,959,222,647 | will-trump-state-unequivocally-in-2 | JessicaEvans | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c | Will Trump state unequivocally in 2024 that the US should not militarily intervene if China attempts to invade Taiwan? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"type": "d... | Timothy Bandors | bva5plix7i | public | contract | 1,718,959,535,862 | will-lord-miles-walk-across-the-us | TimothyBandors | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c | Will Lord Miles walk across the US? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"type": "paragr... | Quillist | o9j6scum6e | public | contract | 1,718,960,049,993 | in-chess-what-is-the-shortest-amoun | Quillist | In chess, what is the shortest amount of moves black needs to make to force a draw with white? | 4195grp0tdd | null | 60.588126 | YES | 12xs2r9xyf | |
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} | lukres | 14lyj93lwe | public | contract | 1,718,960,113,443 | which-would-you-rather-jn2tlb0eik | lukres | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2 | Which would you rather? | tx2k344hprj | null | null | null | null |
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... | William Ehlhardt | id0u55fyz2 | public | contract | 1,718,960,641,380 | is-there-a-major-error-in-httpstior | WilliamEhlhardt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhIt4otiuT2URGdpXkfphc7Dd1YGXK9gzUx5RHztA=s96-c | Is there a major error in this transit-vs-car comparison https://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=88 ? | hncfdx8tjq4 | 0.234171 | 2,865.311887 | NO | null |
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"text": "3% is so low that I'd be uncomfortable buying it down this low unless I studied the topic ",
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"type": ... | Stark | GsDFpfrdByaWYfuhe85O | public | contract | 1,718,960,864,614 | will-the-sun-not-not-not-explode-on-7b25aa5dca1c | StarkLN | Will the Sun not not .... not explode on April 15, 2023, where the number of "not"s is equal to Σ(5)? | RjlxOINdxt2c0GiQaAkG | 0.03 | 2,731.984801 | YES | null | |
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"text": "Will throw out here that this is one of the ones where you could reasonably vote Trump",
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"attrs... | Stark | b0ZFWQCAfevzO9CXHTcd | public | contract | 1,718,960,999,633 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-00c94e7c078c | StarkLN | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Nick Land? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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"text": "Can confirm that it is not blocked yet.",
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} | Bohaska | pJ09ZgjLgVsrM6ZRh3Cp | public | contract | 1,718,961,502,921 | will-china-block-piai-before-2025 | bohaska | Will China block pi.ai before 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
vddxv5sxwqr | false | 8dVDne83ecNjKUEMagAZ5uswIAW2 | {
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"content": null... | UnspecifiedPerson | TjfZkSLMHwAVjvUqtcGB | public | contract | 1,718,961,737,196 | which-social-media-platforms-will-h | UnspecifiedPerson | Which social media platforms will have an increase in harassment in 2023-2024, among Americans? | z211y913sqj | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Bruno | NPkvmjiyXxrRGx6rmvQE | public | contract | 1,718,962,557,497 | will-the-world-mostly-converge-on-a | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will the world mostly converge on a single date format before 31/29/30? | null | null | null | null | null |
xnrrt0u1zo | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
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"text": "lmk if there are more potential world events you'd like to see added (but you don't want to front the mana to add). I'm happy to fill this out more",
... | Pat Scott🩴 | pb5afbolir | public | contract | 1,718,963,026,740 | what-world-events-will-happen-befor | Stralor | What world events will happen before Biden leaves office? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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"text": "Ross Perot did not get the highest vote share for an independent. He wasn't even number 1 in the 20th century.",
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}
... | Bruno | 3gs9fpA28AxDuwhMkT0y | public | contract | 1,718,963,595,540 | will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-be-the-mos | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the most successful independent US presidential candidate in history? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "I think the 5.7.4.2 table is pretty far off - it severely underestimates the cost of urban land (it seems to be taking an unweighted average, which mea... | Shaked Koplewitz | id0u55fyz2 | public | contract | 1,718,963,844,635 | is-there-a-major-error-in-httpstior | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Is there a major error in this transit-vs-car comparison https://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=88 ? | hncfdx8tjq4 | 0.234171 | 349.674391 | YES | null |
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} | Shai | 3gs9fpA28AxDuwhMkT0y | public | contract | 1,718,964,007,112 | will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-be-the-mos | Shai | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the most successful independent US presidential candidate in history? | 0lfzyvmp3vm | 0.09391 | 125.026713 | YES | null | |
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"text": "I think the 5.7.4.2 table is pretty far off - it severely underestimates the cost of urban land (it seems to be taking an unweighted average, which mea... | Shaked Koplewitz | id0u55fyz2 | public | contract | 1,718,964,046,683 | is-there-a-major-error-in-httpstior | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Is there a major error in this transit-vs-car comparison https://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=88 ? | hncfdx8tjq4 | 0.234171 | 349.674391 | YES | null |
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"text": "Of the last ten presidents I think only Clinton would qualify, so this should be pretty low.",
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"type"... | Shaked Koplewitz | GU52ZHIMqTeWAyigoDOh | public | contract | 1,718,964,838,283 | will-the-next-potus-be-involved-in | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Will the next POTUS be involved in a sex scandal while in office? | null | 0.342293 | 75.245231 | NO | null |
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"text": "Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, 27.4%. There was also Horace Greeley, a dissident Republican endorsed by the Democrats in 1872, he got 43.8% but that quest... | Bruno | 3gs9fpA28AxDuwhMkT0y | public | contract | 1,718,965,066,250 | will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-be-the-mos | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the most successful independent US presidential candidate in history? | 0lfzyvmp3vm | null | null | null | null |
myidyud6enl | false | En6oeqssPgS1V2r4MrIeZUutxJm1 | {
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"text": "I guess it resolves on Dec 31, 2024. Categories not mutually-exclusive.",
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... | Jack Hammer | s8lcmtm124 | public | contract | 1,718,965,139,199 | which-species-will-ai-covertly-trai | Slackhammer | Which species will AI covertly train and employ to do its bidding? | j3ib6j2evig | null | null | null | null | |
x5o9k8mthp | false | En6oeqssPgS1V2r4MrIeZUutxJm1 | {
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"text": "Yes, December 31, 2024. Though, as another commenter pointed out in a different poll, in small markets maybe someone could corner it last minute, so l... | Jack Hammer | utrhkfsii3 | public | contract | 1,718,965,321,427 | will-humans-rent-their-bodies-out-t | Slackhammer | Will humans rent their bodies out to AI? | msm8cdu5dqd | null | null | null | null | |
6prq2aurxzn | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
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"text": "Increasing noise about a land invasion, if there is one I think pushing them beyond the river is reasonable.",
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... | Shaked Koplewitz | S5nvwdaNKemNL4c6m1ij | public | contract | 1,718,965,336,476 | will-hezbollah-withdraw-its-forces | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Will Hezbollah withdraw its forces beyond the Litani river by the end of 2024? | null | 0.176324 | 301.254811 | YES | null |
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"hideCloseButton": nu... | Pat Scott🩴 | X1W0G9aHqMyRGlgPvkfB | public | contract | 1,718,965,343,290 | which-of-these-iucn-critically-enda | Stralor | Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040? | null | null | 44.444444 | NO | 006052d97348 | |
47hrndwrts4 | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
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"text": "I'm a big fan of everything nocturnal or vespertine, so this little fucker gets Pat's stamp of approval.",
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... | Pat Scott🩴 | X1W0G9aHqMyRGlgPvkfB | public | contract | 1,718,965,544,786 | which-of-these-iucn-critically-enda | Stralor | Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040? | 4m4vlb90m5u | null | 44.444444 | NO | 006052d97348 | |
6rqbsb5fjim | false | 8K7OokTvKUWJ8OjAucDKG90Yi4H2 | {
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"text": "Oh wow, it can almost solve a Sudoku puzzle! That's a big jump over the butchery Opus 3.0 makes of them",
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}
],
... | GooGhoul | oiulzk2n00 | public | contract | 1,718,966,183,666 | where-will-anthropics-claude-35-son | GooGhoul | Where will Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet model rank on LMSys Chatbot Arena on July 7th? Ahead of GPT, Gemini? | null | null | 7.313658 | YES | 1firto7w7p | |
5ghm280blu9 | false | 2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83 | {
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"text": "If he qualifies it then that statement won't cause this to resolve YES (not unequivocal). Even if Taiwan doesn't do the thing he says they need to, it ... | Josh Wilkes | VbSjkDh97t4NTpUaEL5k | public | contract | 1,718,966,271,999 | will-trump-state-unequivocally-in-2 | JoshuaWilkes | Will Trump state unequivocally in 2024 that the US should not militarily intervene if China attempts to invade Taiwan? | gm10tkqe47n | 0.288684 | 47.159232 | YES | null | |
jgefbxbfq5e | false | lQpqzot3ijchCnSWJIMhPLKvPXS2 | {
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"text": "Is this market tied to or connected with the resolution of the IMO Grand Challenge? ",
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"attrs":... | Sjeyua | BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz | public | contract | 1,718,966,408,340 | will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat | Sjeyua | Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? | null | 0.210054 | 6.238254 | NO | null | |
n7cjh3mdc3o | false | lQpqzot3ijchCnSWJIMhPLKvPXS2 | {
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{
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"text": "Not sure if notification is sent otherwise so just in case writing a mention here: ",
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"attrs": ... | Sjeyua | BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz | public | contract | 1,718,966,569,165 | will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat | Sjeyua | Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? | jgefbxbfq5e | 0.210054 | 6.238254 | NO | null | |
tnrv5xlnlkc | false | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | {
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"text": "I only read the captions but it didn't seem like she said that the next model is 1.5 years away. It seemed like she said that models with PhD-level int... | Chris Billington | RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM | public | contract | 1,718,966,697,844 | will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025 | chrisjbillington | Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? | xyygqb2u2ng | 0.469741 | 4,797.371521 | YES | null | |
ck43m9fkrwg | false | rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3 | {
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"text": "Thursday, June 20: 18 posts",
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"content": ... | Maurice Bransfield | lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA | public | contract | 1,718,966,844,538 | trump-truth-market-june-1521 | MauriceBransfield | Trump Truth Market (June 15-21) | null | null | null | null | null | |
5zqh26j6h7r | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
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"text": "This is another thing that's hard to measure but is probably important. The land use cost of roads assumes current property values. But a lot of the cu... | Shaked Koplewitz | id0u55fyz2 | public | contract | 1,718,967,274,630 | is-there-a-major-error-in-httpstior | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Is there a major error in this transit-vs-car comparison https://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=88 ? | 1x7vha5el0m | 0.234171 | 349.674391 | YES | null |
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