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yxs2a4u8gap
false
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "label": "Stralor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
N.C. Young
h7ojyrd8kd
public
contract
1,718,967,377,395
what-will-be-true-of-the-first-pers
NcyRocks
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
What will be true of the first person to marry Nathan Young?
null
null
null
null
null
letz0st4vj
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What proportion of American blacks does it have to be? What if it's just \"foundational Black Americans\"?", "type": "text" } ]...
jim
ehsDA8FHCrFzKK6hAOhr
public
contract
1,718,967,437,914
reparations-by-2030
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Reparations by 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
rzvl9nalmnl
false
HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Surprised to see this at 95%- Maybe the fear mongering is a bit overblown. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Timothy Bandors
lwTN4mEB9rHSs9OiJLTJ
public
contract
1,718,967,844,653
will-boeings-starliner-return-with
TimothyBandors
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c
Will Boeing's Starliner return with an astronaut?
null
null
null
null
null
o0m9byjcgvo
false
91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What also needs to be considered is that if the War were to end, there would be enormous public pressure for PM to resign. Even the US government want...
Bruce
ZNOG00Vq18bxbzGJk6FS
public
contract
1,718,967,948,690
will-netanyahu-be-out-of-office-by
Bruce54df
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c
Will Netanyahu be out of office by year end 2024?
89urvbt61gs
0.288357
14,194.552207
YES
null
y1ywl29me4
false
Q9XCF79f7JgZF8itYw5uDJg3Whm2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "label": "SirCryptomind", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "ment...
blankspace737
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,718,968,040,773
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
stardust
https://firebasestorage.…901-b7160011e796
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
9op8yen4gkw
null
2,886.406015
YES
33b8f3dc81b9
vazyo9dzqy
false
EIV7jGjL3jhXPJmief8lB37F8su2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Similar to the ROC question, I'm ideally aiming to exclude Olympic rulings from swinging these erratically. If possible, athletes ruled unable to compe...
Pat Myron
pPztYLsLtUbOdcsMgCcH
public
contract
1,718,968,104,949
paris-2024-summer-olympic-medal-tab
PatMyron
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FPatMyron%2FTwhMJnB6r7.7s-47px?alt=media&token=eaf328f2-64ea-4238-a4a1-b96a1eab91a2
Paris 2024 Summer Olympic medal table
6Piv0p0CDpCbgK1lo63u
null
267.878062
YES
615cef81eda1
loau8kh2xz
false
cXfjElSKSFTJVYwY3xlxH5wQlF82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think the context is telling; before saying “PhD-level intelligence” she mentions", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragr...
Elf
RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM
public
contract
1,718,968,673,083
will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025
elf
https://firebasestorage.…225-4e706826a59b
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
xyygqb2u2ng
0.496936
8,542.653675
NO
null
b9m6n0ertjp
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Lmao it literally never occurred to me until now that Nathan comes from Jonathan", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
uXAscPxSyspYj0QEZ9FY
public
contract
1,718,969,110,247
manifest-multiperson-mixer-bingo
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Manifest Multi-Person Mixer Bingo!
gqmiornwyx7
null
17.142857
YES
8649cfbbfa69
mxgfch20kj
false
YbnECWNY20NMmfBiN4Tk3HLmWKu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "But Ramer also acknowledged that her staff had only recently learned how to use the ultrasound machine. ", "type": "text" } ], ...
Declan Bransfield
NbPoV2oNedBzwrFBY0mn
public
contract
1,718,969,146,219
how-did-charlotte-the-stingray-conc
DeclanBransfield
https://firebasestorage.…136-09a3b03b076b
How did Charlotte the stingray conceive her pups?
null
null
279.474257
YES
920dab682724
b4imknaofcw
false
BlKphEzoOeZqaJL5ks7CcxMDOP73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sure, there's land costs of roads and parking lots, and health costs of deaths and injuries but I'm pretty sure the main issue with this analysis is ju...
Shkeonk
id0u55fyz2
public
contract
1,718,969,572,295
is-there-a-major-error-in-httpstior
Shkeonk
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd8Vp2fAVkGReH7I-hh6cOg4zrpwwnZVWU6eCBpDtC5=s96-c
Is there a major error in this transit-vs-car comparison https://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=88 ?
null
0.326178
513.905653
YES
null
8fqu89i5fi3
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Damn, I can't believe exactly zero happened lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
uXAscPxSyspYj0QEZ9FY
public
contract
1,718,969,755,875
manifest-multiperson-mixer-bingo
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Manifest Multi-Person Mixer Bingo!
null
null
17.142857
YES
8649cfbbfa69
2vnrivsqw8w
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "MSR study selection document", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content":...
Mqrius
VJUCnVNkT2e8pIsMxd8S
public
contract
1,718,969,891,228
will-starship-be-involved-with-the
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starship be involved with the return of the Mars samples?
null
0.696325
251.873435
YES
null
84bv49a87c8
false
UAybp5Bg2JWQFmKZCqv1DEllms23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Got shot down😅😅😅", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
Madhav Kumar
asipPSfytvLZ2NCQu6Fw
public
contract
1,718,969,967,414
should-i-ask-out-my-crushwho-also-h
MadhavKumar
https://storage.googleap…Cqv1DEllms23.png
Should i ask out my crush? Who also happens to be my best friend 🙂
ot5og8ghm0q
null
null
null
null
33at90j66e1
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "After a few hours playing, I can can confirm that it is frustratingly difficult to reach 65k, and I came across zero players using rationalussy as thei...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
6yczpqovr5
public
contract
1,718,970,046,972
will-there-be-at-least-3-players-on
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will there be at least 3 players on the leaderboard all named "Rationalussy" on diep.io by EOY 2026?
51i3tto3sy3
0.444926
44.813234
NO
null
1oes6myhmff
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There have been no indications of show-stopping issues, and also having astronauts return on an emergency unscheduled capsule has never been done befor...
Mqrius
lwTN4mEB9rHSs9OiJLTJ
public
contract
1,718,970,175,886
will-boeings-starliner-return-with
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Boeing's Starliner return with an astronaut?
rzvl9nalmnl
0.95
2,009.180875
YES
null
wlv56ilp0xa
false
BlKphEzoOeZqaJL5ks7CcxMDOP73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Shkeonk
id0u55fyz2
public
contract
1,718,970,953,261
is-there-a-major-error-in-httpstior
Shkeonk
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd8Vp2fAVkGReH7I-hh6cOg4zrpwwnZVWU6eCBpDtC5=s96-c
Is there a major error in this transit-vs-car comparison https://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=88 ?
b4imknaofcw
0.326178
513.905653
YES
null
1aac8f1qc5x
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yeah this seems pretty blatantly right wing, no clue why others are voting it left, care to elaborate ", "type": "text" }, { ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,718,971,207,498
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
0g4l3bvev6sr
null
147.699591
NO
dcfbedc0e892
lplsmoqgda
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
stefanie
X1W0G9aHqMyRGlgPvkfB
public
contract
1,718,971,260,130
which-of-these-iucn-critically-enda
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040?
null
null
null
null
null
5s5zid3ouql
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You think the Irish parliament is the secret group behind everything?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ]...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,718,971,262,753
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
clmtek12ha8
null
147.699591
NO
dcfbedc0e892
kf5q5netl8l
false
UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "P7xu9OehExZKGzdSnfzONL3Ux6o2", "label": "PrettyTony", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention...
Greg Rosenthal
DX9j8IGNSInqtWwXeRFC
public
contract
1,718,971,425,011
which-team-will-sign-og-anunoby-in
gregrosent
https://firebasestorage.…ef2-37c836fda9cd
Which team will sign OG Anunoby in the 2024 NBA offseason?
null
null
758.964059
YES
5e8449f4abfb
vdxmbtj7z
false
7VyXHLttmabiTEB4oaUAs2tbyzG3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Ukraine\" as internationally recognized Ukraine, right? (2013 borders)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
RatUziCat
mn8vwsH83cg1dL6evAP4
public
contract
1,718,971,500,835
will-russia-shoot-down-an-f16-over
RatUziCat
https://firebasestorage.…0ef-5bd2549a9952
Will Russia shoot down an F-16 over Ukraine before the end of 2025?
null
0.724657
723.553761
YES
null
t801gwdnx7
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Back in time 50y = know the future, become rich, fix history, not so far back that life is hellish", "type": "text" } ], ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,718,971,612,188
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
null
null
115.663335
YES
a1e1436fa370
zaiwfcfcpv
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Highly recommend adding the 2024 timescale to the title, that completely changes the odds ", "type": "text" } ], "type": ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
5n7vpkxiqw
public
contract
1,718,971,792,404
will-ai-discover-cognitohazards-or
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will AI discover "cognitohazards" or "antimemes" similar to those described in SCP lore?
null
null
null
null
null
enlsh28v3zi
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Alternative market title you could edit this to since there aren't already a bunch of traders: ", "type": "text" } ], "ty...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
5n7vpkxiqw
public
contract
1,718,971,967,780
will-ai-discover-cognitohazards-or
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will AI discover "cognitohazards" or "antimemes" similar to those described in SCP lore?
zaiwfcfcpv
null
null
null
null
71eu0gg5auj
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will the human option resolve no if it hasn't happened by the end of the year?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
s8lcmtm124
public
contract
1,718,972,120,762
which-species-will-ai-covertly-trai
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Which species will AI covertly train and employ to do its bidding?
j3ib6j2evig
null
14.867217
NO
940iy5v6uz
0m8bzbyxeobh
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This question is hella cringe if ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2"...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
14hwb85t2n
public
contract
1,718,972,324,440
will-someone-perform-asphyxiophilia
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will someone perform asphyxiophilia with aella before 2026
null
null
null
null
null
i3o2ciabth8
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Do just one or multiple options resolve yes?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
k0rz7oaima
public
contract
1,718,972,407,667
how-many-companies-and-governments
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
How many companies and governments will create AGI by 2032?
null
null
null
null
null
s96ngq0yiw
false
ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Related market: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "CjVJpBjNg7tDqwJsqAOX", "label": "/...
Oleg Eterevsky
0FDNr6lgBzU5MbfwS5W0
public
contract
1,718,972,573,157
will-the-mind-of-a-c-elegans-roundw
OlegEterevsky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c
Will the mind of a C. elegans roundworm be uploaded before 2033?
null
null
null
null
null
b0rr4i20tj
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "label": "Stralor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
pb5afbolir
public
contract
1,718,973,151,419
what-world-events-will-happen-befor
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
What world events will happen before Biden leaves office?
null
null
137.58191
YES
12psd69j60
txiuplcwdwj
false
6M2g1pRmc2N8OjbakA2ggzuc8Wy1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Started training a ~month ago, and it took them 9 months to train GPT-4 (and 6 more months for fine-tuning, RLHF &c). Seems unlikely.", "type...
Niplav Yushtun
m2hYXWuZNqJcaw48fGoe
public
contract
1,718,973,191,892
gpt5-by-2025
NiplavYushtun
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7JIxP7AIaL0K4wGj6lg8fkm3g_3Lvv4cElS396=s96-c
GPT-5 by 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
z32hten8pyi
false
qIjH5KDOG9WVsa3265yCTICxHjx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "absolutely", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Qoiuoiuoiu
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,718,973,266,230
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
Qoiuoiuoiu
https://firebasestorage.…2ea-1eb85c642bfa
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
t801gwdnx7
null
148.159325
NO
9f2ab5960760
fmdm5re36ru
false
6M2g1pRmc2N8OjbakA2ggzuc8Wy1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ways in which I could be wrong:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "conten...
Niplav Yushtun
m2hYXWuZNqJcaw48fGoe
public
contract
1,718,973,325,792
gpt5-by-2025
NiplavYushtun
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7JIxP7AIaL0K4wGj6lg8fkm3g_3Lvv4cElS396=s96-c
GPT-5 by 2025?
txiuplcwdwj
0.489375
786.071173
NO
null
t15qrtgnxyg
false
GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's quite hard to fix history as one person. I also think 2074 will be great. I'd much rather live in 2074 than 1974.", "type": "text" ...
Nathan Wei
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,718,973,330,911
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
nathanwei
https://firebasestorage.…47c-77836969b89a
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
t801gwdnx7
null
65.736371
YES
vd47u3yu3q
770ep1lbv9p
false
qIjH5KDOG9WVsa3265yCTICxHjx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "well fixing history isn't so important. But if you know exactly what's going to happen you can avoid dangerous events and make billions on the stock ma...
Qoiuoiuoiu
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,718,973,385,685
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
Qoiuoiuoiu
https://firebasestorage.…2ea-1eb85c642bfa
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
t801gwdnx7
null
148.159325
NO
9f2ab5960760
hzub2zyniow
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Also fixing history as a billionaire is much easier", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,718,973,740,521
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
t801gwdnx7
null
115.663335
YES
a1e1436fa370
yx10xmwtg8
false
wyhSR6eJTIQAnpEprS80g0eJD8u2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ah! You're right about the year, I wrote 2025!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null...
Alex Armlovich
tx3o5a4q82
public
contract
1,718,973,824,959
will-nycs-city-of-yes-for-housing-o
AlexArmlovich
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI4ictpiDrGqPB_eL-88-hu3hbyEdHWcuixqtaPorTIaP3Ludn9uw=s96-c
Will NYC's "City of Yes for Housing Opportunity" parking reform proposal succeed?
itavjodimc
null
61.007654
NO
g1frx14oqm
lzvrm2p59ko
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2", "label": "nathanwei", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,718,973,894,073
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
t801gwdnx7
null
115.663335
YES
a1e1436fa370
2z5cq2xy0qj
false
0gR6J536YtYV21zwcLqIJC8mWKn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why's the chance of this exactly the same as them solving alignment?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ],...
Tiago Chamba
yxktdwcvg4
public
contract
1,718,973,997,603
what-will-be-true-of-safe-superinte
TiagoChamba
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIdUiAQ5Kb7y9-bk9bwKEv5dgaJUB3amTY7MkeyR0FuZQ=s96-c
What will be true of Safe Superintelligence Inc.? [Add Answers]
null
null
66.846761
NO
0cmgqeyha8
he5j38t299a
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
t3e1hbf7ie
public
contract
1,718,974,154,711
compilation-of-the-most-popular-foo
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Compilation of the Most Popular Football Betting Tips
null
null
null
null
null
ezdgwn7h7q
false
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's close. The Metaculus one is for 2040 instead of 2030, and the standards for resolution are likely slightly different, but the core question is the...
Evan
uPSnMj5QnfmndAxdaGZa
public
contract
1,718,974,193,156
will-the-exact-value-of-busy-beaver
EvanDaniel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c
Will the exact value of Busy Beaver(5) be known before 2030?
lvo95eehbhg
0.972608
10,259.711078
YES
null
oy2nq63d4s
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "From a layman perspective it seems like Anthropic are doing pretty much the exact same thing as OpenAI and Google, racing to increase capabilities and ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,718,974,233,042
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
null
null
123.90958
NO
51pp1it7o7
75d7j4ypbs8
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ">\"and also having astronauts return on an emergency unscheduled capsule has never been done before.\"", "type": "text" }, { ...
Christopher Randles
lwTN4mEB9rHSs9OiJLTJ
public
contract
1,718,974,365,244
will-boeings-starliner-return-with
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will Boeing's Starliner return with an astronaut?
rzvl9nalmnl
0.95
788.10998
YES
null
vxne5ai1pd
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Please don't randomly ping people like that, but I do generally agree. I think Anthropic is obviously doing the unsafe thing in a more safety-conscious...
Joshua
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,718,974,659,394
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
oy2nq63d4s
null
645.31583
YES
1254c0ee7345
esejh7o21qn
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Barghouti is serving five life sentences for various murders he was directly involved in (not to mention dozens of other attacks he organized but got o...
Shaked Koplewitz
wBjLhoU4eMIcwJDcZlvf
public
contract
1,718,975,022,312
who-will-replace-mahmoud-abbas-as-t
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Who will replace Mahmoud Abbas as President?
null
null
66.968634
NO
3ebdbb702cc9
254zyttdwgc
false
WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Because both are actually 0%.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Zvi Mowshowitz
yxktdwcvg4
public
contract
1,718,975,053,885
what-will-be-true-of-safe-superinte
ZviMowshowitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c
What will be true of Safe Superintelligence Inc.? [Add Answers]
2z5cq2xy0qj
null
21.702383
NO
ccekjdiv3v
c0utv408v3p
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Oh cool didn't know about Soyuz MS-22!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
lwTN4mEB9rHSs9OiJLTJ
public
contract
1,718,975,130,894
will-boeings-starliner-return-with
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Boeing's Starliner return with an astronaut?
rzvl9nalmnl
0.941983
2,009.180875
YES
null
ahxgzlqvnoo
false
RDb6F1HdVFZsyu94eCWTTHV3Jym1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Paris 2024: the Seine remains too polluted to host events, almost a month before the start of the Games ", "type": "text" } ], ...
Jérôme 2024
JSSf0Mglt4sQpUEG6piO
public
contract
1,718,975,669,947
will-the-open-water-swimming-events
JeromeAgostini
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteZvC87SWT5_sCz1MIvj3gLMGYPf2Cl61q5VyIX9ykSYi4=s96-c
Will the open water swimming events be able to take place in the Seine river for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games?
null
0.53
977.908387
NO
null
io4r28pjyk
false
uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
notarealuser
ightYThhL5OOGV6Lodfn
public
contract
1,718,976,662,356
will-anyone-be-killed-by-falling-sp
notarealuser
https://firebasestorage.…8ad-29a00de78354
Will anyone be killed by falling space debris before the end of 2032?
null
0.06
291.300043
YES
null
kcj9iv0brs
false
sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I wish you good luck!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
redcat
WiP3fLOakN6X5dvETX2W
public
contract
1,718,976,773,577
will-i-get-a-boyfriend-before-i-gra
redcat
https://firebasestorage.…35d-f375e7e7fe68
Will I get a boyfriend before I graduate high school?
null
null
null
null
null
ol7gda2mwa9
false
aT0xhM8JgiS51x23FlpDFp1gV6H3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What counts as joining them?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nathan Nguyen
qxu6lpx3w0
public
contract
1,718,976,926,073
will-bonny-join-the-straw-hat-pirat
NathanNguyen
https://firebasestorage.…77b-1050dac540ba
Will Bonny join the Straw Hat Pirates
null
0.766258
35.616555
NO
null
yjyqqjr61do
false
cgKXa2RuAIfZiJJSdFeksXGwFvD2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Becoming an official member.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Elocho Shabani
qxu6lpx3w0
public
contract
1,718,977,171,671
will-bonny-join-the-straw-hat-pirat
ElochoShabani
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocId20ZLkOOif7NhjcWFi36YzSrSU44FOqFyIvDT71b0T9m3UhuAcw=s96-c
Will Bonny join the Straw Hat Pirates
ol7gda2mwa9
0.96341
493.638459
YES
null
m35wgjhfua
false
cgKXa2RuAIfZiJJSdFeksXGwFvD2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "she is a little kid, no crew and wanted by the world government and Elder stars (JUST ME LOGIC) ", "type": "text" } ], "t...
Elocho Shabani
qxu6lpx3w0
public
contract
1,718,977,226,871
will-bonny-join-the-straw-hat-pirat
ElochoShabani
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocId20ZLkOOif7NhjcWFi36YzSrSU44FOqFyIvDT71b0T9m3UhuAcw=s96-c
Will Bonny join the Straw Hat Pirates
ol7gda2mwa9
0.96341
493.638459
YES
null
0cazxsxpxn5
false
AqhvYiHwOUPwbj9Wcwxzf9M9JJk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "My intention is to resolve this if we're still alive on Jan 1st 2032 with the closest matching number. If a 1 company produces AGI in 2 years for examp...
Caelum Forder
k0rz7oaima
public
contract
1,718,977,731,764
how-many-companies-and-governments
CaelumForder
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJnrFtkkV6buxBlFVrbVq7k_3-VSI2sBSAvEdCClanhrUJx0Q=s96-c
How many companies and governments will create AGI by 2032?
i3o2ciabth8
null
2.803101
YES
cymahlm9zi
6frer3pzy1c
false
AqhvYiHwOUPwbj9Wcwxzf9M9JJk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No particular definition in mind, my current personal definition is any artificial system that can be given any task that a human with the same access ...
Caelum Forder
k0rz7oaima
public
contract
1,718,978,197,423
how-many-companies-and-governments
CaelumForder
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJnrFtkkV6buxBlFVrbVq7k_3-VSI2sBSAvEdCClanhrUJx0Q=s96-c
How many companies and governments will create AGI by 2032?
ysc9c7ej9ur
null
2.803101
YES
cymahlm9zi
po9thjz1qr
false
yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
EBurk
ufqvftpyzp
public
contract
1,718,978,394,827
what-will-be-true-of-xkcds-for-june
EBurk
https://firebasestorage.…0e3-2fdb94d99bad
What will be true of xkcd's for June 24th-June 28th?
null
null
null
null
null
pd0lx7ysecr
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So any chance of resolving 1st to 19th as no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
xMjOspsXXAQZwvN9slrm
public
contract
1,718,979,005,405
in-new-york-city-on-what-day-will-t
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
In New York City, on what day will the highest temperature of June 2024 be recorded?
14ybryn8khgj
null
807.061916
NO
srb1t04q61
fgmcnn152ld
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Get voting ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label":...
Daniel
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,718,979,118,067
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
eora2j4l2b
null
642.067566
NO
u71zgrfjae
6b2r9vnw6to
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "label": "EBurk", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Muga Sofer
ufqvftpyzp
public
contract
1,718,979,268,478
what-will-be-true-of-xkcds-for-june
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
What will be true of xkcd's for June 24th-June 28th?
null
null
502.934689
YES
6fv6xu4qil
1y1gk7sxdy7
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "repoll those in joint positions as tiebreak until identify top 5?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], ...
Christopher Randles
l2k3t9ejp1
public
contract
1,718,979,278,776
which-of-the-following-is-true-abou
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Which of the following is true about Elon Musk?
xv61yrf83di
null
null
null
null
tls8yeqhzfk
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "As nate silver was saying at manifest, polls these days are just models with poll-flavored inputs. Non-response rates keep going up and correcting for...
Jonathan Ray
GxVa8YDr8lFnTTKPGHf9
public
contract
1,718,979,444,868
which-party-will-win-the-us-preside-5777ea10ce2a
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
Which party will win the US Presidency in Nevada?
null
null
29,888.35339
YES
f4a4142dc83e
s8h1xcswkqf
false
kjnrvtJiAeXCryfvmqEnVoG5Avh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
kevor
vddy2d2kt0
public
contract
1,718,979,468,267
how-many-people-will-be-named-as-be
kevor
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLNurTspI79nxGwhPOv0b6qMiLSHmI_dVif1qkHj2qO05M=s96-c
UK General Election - Total named in betting scandal investigations?
null
null
0
YES
mx8piwaqgn
ox29u98745s
false
9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Quite late in the game I've made a new market, with questions about the Spain GP, now again with more different questions", "type": "text" ...
Fedor
7cRDfgV4tjGNcd773ryX
public
contract
1,718,979,975,864
what-will-be-true-of-the-monaco-gp-1b43dd0eb95b
Fedor
https://firebasestorage.…d6d-1b2c6bbfbc21
What will be true of the Canada GP weekend?
null
null
2,248.991912
NO
64fb624f538d
l8hp98x8pv
false
yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Multiple panels do NOT count as separate appearances. But, many xkcd’s have more than one character that have equal claim to the Cueball name, for refe...
EBurk
ufqvftpyzp
public
contract
1,718,980,105,816
what-will-be-true-of-xkcds-for-june
EBurk
https://firebasestorage.…0e3-2fdb94d99bad
What will be true of xkcd's for June 24th-June 28th?
6b2r9vnw6to
null
null
null
null
hzlj7ywpsak
false
XmAUlR95VBW12Fee6lES6eY9CRC3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cAztQZ0renalM03WNxZegsptHIq2", "label": "Accuracy", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Certainty of Victory
NKM6oCA1aVmnxnYkB9JH
public
contract
1,718,980,549,985
will-the-oct-7-rape-claims-be-subst
CertaintyOfVictory
https://firebasestorage.…1a7-eda36bb8a1a8
Will the Oct 7 rape claims be substantiated by an independent investigation?
null
0.5
2,387.443932
YES
null
07yso14fv1b3
false
XmAUlR95VBW12Fee6lES6eY9CRC3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Nevermind, I just saw your rating. Should have looked before betting. I will liquidate my position and leave this market as soon as possible, since I h...
Certainty of Victory
NKM6oCA1aVmnxnYkB9JH
public
contract
1,718,980,826,461
will-the-oct-7-rape-claims-be-subst
CertaintyOfVictory
https://firebasestorage.…1a7-eda36bb8a1a8
Will the Oct 7 rape claims be substantiated by an independent investigation?
hzlj7ywpsak
0.38
1,887.443932
YES
null
ceo2gm1o6qg
false
Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There are a lot of reasonably likely (>1%) complicated edge cases here that I want to get out ahead of! My plane could crash, for a not-quite-example. ...
Lorxus PhD 🦊
JugbZf7sEzBIAKB2lFXa
public
contract
1,718,980,918,098
will-lorxus-the-author-of-this-mark-mzi7gnlmv3
Lorxus
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbebFJR8Ey87j0aMvnyCxY8sMICPXqeiMqYL8SqsQ=s96-c
Will Lorxus, the author of this market, survive SERI MATS 2024 in Tontine?
tvg3vxqnb0o
0.9
1,278.704187
YES
null
i9tma5dzdks
false
NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Stephen S Power
hFflB5b7ney9gsLL3wXW
public
contract
1,718,981,106,546
in-adjudicating-us-v-rahimi-will-th
StephenSPower
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJakJRZZPV9UKwEj40oeDYqeV9_xpZkUTwTi2oosBE=s96-c
In adjudicating US v Rahimi, will the Supreme Court rule that 18 USC 922 (g)(8) violates the 2nd Amendment?
null
0.07688
18.333333
YES
null
ictotmbqx0j
false
XmAUlR95VBW12Fee6lES6eY9CRC3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "And I'm out of the market. I'm considering the profit loss as a penalty for myself to keep in mind to always thoroughly check the market creators.", ...
Certainty of Victory
NKM6oCA1aVmnxnYkB9JH
public
contract
1,718,981,106,854
will-the-oct-7-rape-claims-be-subst
CertaintyOfVictory
https://firebasestorage.…1a7-eda36bb8a1a8
Will the Oct 7 rape claims be substantiated by an independent investigation?
hzlj7ywpsak
0.18
0
YES
null
jtz5h7q3b4j
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Heads up for people to check out ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "cAztQZ0renalM03WNxZegsptHIq2"...
Shaked Koplewitz
NKM6oCA1aVmnxnYkB9JH
public
contract
1,718,981,145,787
will-the-oct-7-rape-claims-be-subst
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Will the Oct 7 rape claims be substantiated by an independent investigation?
null
null
null
null
null
l00kzfcgy8r
false
dp5qoJAOmqgfNGxbRm00x8b9bU03
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Claude 3.5 could be a contender here", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mactuary
zRlsquvPmxJvsJegzzxQ
public
contract
1,718,981,498,546
who-will-release-the-next-generatio
Mactuary
https://firebasestorage.…977-b24dde9fa772
Who will release the next generation-defining LLM?
null
null
96.436827
YES
1281794bc1f4
e10g5l3tsma
false
xfvv2IHWADa6xJjECe73FFXU3CV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Going into Nathans discord channel to complain to him about his dad is next level", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragrap...
EugeneBixby
jenB9XlhobHtgpSu58bq
public
contract
1,718,981,532,363
will-the-bridge-burn-destiny-kelly
EugeneBixby
https://firebasestorage.…a71-2fe7e17f7e21
Will the Bridge Burn: Destiny & Kelly Jean in 2024
null
0.5
1,387.603011
YES
null
2owg4e39zya
false
wfiuw0M6D5XAvlVRy1NUscfLcr53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
hecko
m2hYXWuZNqJcaw48fGoe
public
contract
1,718,982,092,668
gpt5-by-2025
hecko
https://firebasestorage.…25e-e074822a87cf
GPT-5 by 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
v4llwdxa7l
false
6zyJD9kOtvcc6XR91cTDpxvvHCB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "an election between two monarchists, tough call", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jes Wolfe
b0ZFWQCAfevzO9CXHTcd
public
contract
1,718,982,100,138
if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-00c94e7c078c
JesWolfe
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcKjht6P3AYXOa2d0KfFkhQ_Fa_Nya7nn9oWrRw1Noi0Fky=s96-c
If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Nick Land?
null
null
null
null
null
i9hkxxpd2g
false
RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The hail is tiny compared to Texas… but it can happen… ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": n...
Archibald Crone
Yvk7qrDuAlRs4ZtKl9Fi
public
contract
1,718,982,425,912
which-of-the-ten-biblical-plagues-o
BlueDragon
https://firebasestorage.…2f3-d0594914d1a2
📜Which of the Ten Biblical Plagues of Egypt will strike New York City in 2024?
wna8x0w7yac
null
null
null
null
07lnkj4dmlm
false
uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Market closed as video released for paid members on patreon. Resolution on Saturday when the video is available for everyone. ", "type": "tex...
notarealuser
CKuP5LDl4wv70nTg7Yxx
public
contract
1,718,982,502,615
what-will-be-true-of-the-everyday-a
notarealuser
https://firebasestorage.…8ad-29a00de78354
What will be true of the Everyday Astronaut 's Starbase tour with Elon Musk about IFT 4?
null
null
86.593053
NO
6e0uvf6zig
hmxqd2qwbpf
false
F8KcKLPughaLSaqVMgwVcdkHTul2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think this is too restrictive, live TV is dead. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": ...
Paul
SKsmhLrWp1cWnXS6fKc2
public
contract
1,718,982,604,171
president-of-usa-has-orgasm-on-live
Paulith
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIHa4Skn6HHsMqDfZwL6acec4VIUrcwGzztbvQ_mhU63A=s96-c
President of USA has orgasm on live TV before 2035
null
null
null
null
null
ccchiygx7h4
false
F8KcKLPughaLSaqVMgwVcdkHTul2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "lol I just read the description, my bad", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Paul
SKsmhLrWp1cWnXS6fKc2
public
contract
1,718,982,679,385
president-of-usa-has-orgasm-on-live
Paulith
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIHa4Skn6HHsMqDfZwL6acec4VIUrcwGzztbvQ_mhU63A=s96-c
President of USA has orgasm on live TV before 2035
hmxqd2qwbpf
0.046384
52.310916
NO
null
27uqd8gsdd4
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "188M so 20 June resolved no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
dLrdP14EYU5Nez82KaFh
public
contract
1,718,982,777,538
when-will-elon-musk-reach-190m-foll
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
When will Elon Musk reach 190M followers
null
null
2,348.235442
NO
cxo3rnpd8x
f879y1qj53s
false
9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "KqyXegxYUBg8EzvMMhZJmJX5LfG3", "label": "VictorLJZ", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
Jan
r8LGYZSeHzUfn4WjVKH0
public
contract
1,718,982,785,282
will-money-still-exist-in-a-postagi
Jan53274
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c
Will money still exist in a post-AGI, post-scarcity society?
null
null
null
null
null
zclb18iy35i
false
8dboiK130XNESzFh0uztbNkfcxa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If the analysis is fine but irrelevant, how does that score?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { ...
Will
id0u55fyz2
public
contract
1,718,982,792,979
is-there-a-major-error-in-httpstior
wrhall
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLy8Q3CWCvkDqnporNAUQ-xDxOZHF8NzmJa32mXx3Dw5kDlqRfw=s96-c
Is there a major error in this transit-vs-car comparison https://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=88 ?
null
null
null
null
null
bj68stkk5oc
false
RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "My bad this forecast is for last week 😱 😱.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, ...
Archibald Crone
Yvk7qrDuAlRs4ZtKl9Fi
public
contract
1,718,982,982,960
which-of-the-ten-biblical-plagues-o
BlueDragon
https://firebasestorage.…2f3-d0594914d1a2
📜Which of the Ten Biblical Plagues of Egypt will strike New York City in 2024?
wna8x0w7yac
null
172.031678
NO
b0eb35097cd5
7nxki2b9efj
false
9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There are already many things that are scarce but free. Scarcity can also be solved via waiting lists or random draws, for example.", "type":...
Jan
r8LGYZSeHzUfn4WjVKH0
public
contract
1,718,983,035,516
will-money-still-exist-in-a-postagi
Jan53274
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c
Will money still exist in a post-AGI, post-scarcity society?
3jWmZGyAGoR9O5UxUua6
null
null
null
null
k36fs7hsdnr
false
wNkuCd4vjqOgiwBIXCVPVHRneI63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This resolves YES even if the channel has ~0 viewers?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc...
Vanessa Kosoy
7Go5CN7A6NovTHFJisRW
public
contract
1,718,983,196,586
will-there-be-an-ai-lets-play-chann
VanessaKosoy
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte_ALTuE-hy2f-vUSbXP-z4Ye8ZmPMTm1_h-6L7wCd1Mg=s96-c
Will there be an AI "Let's Play" channel by 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
5lcnexe0yze
false
kOzh2wOQW3SGGYMWGzFvP6CQZw53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "should have read before buying...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Martin
j8OZxOzhPPkqih5hdIUY
public
contract
1,718,983,232,957
did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory-8d38660948d1
bbb
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1hVkRTqxrwtL1dtbhMdl6n5FGdr0N27PA_XCg7Q=s96-c
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
null
0.381559
674.179964
YES
null
f64nn1oiwqt
false
kOzh2wOQW3SGGYMWGzFvP6CQZw53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Might be true, but this market does not deal with reality, but with the linked poll, only...", "type": "text" } ], "type"...
Martin
j8OZxOzhPPkqih5hdIUY
public
contract
1,718,983,282,125
did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory-8d38660948d1
bbb
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1hVkRTqxrwtL1dtbhMdl6n5FGdr0N27PA_XCg7Q=s96-c
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
dbu3c3l61gn
0.381559
674.179964
YES
null
xp2kls7t56k
false
sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Okay - use this one then.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, ...
vVv
1vwl81497o
public
contract
1,718,983,785,999
will-claude-35-sonnet-rank-higher-t
vVv
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc217hRvo5DrxSz_u1Qgbbkv-2nqvvCWdszujgbw4A_=s96-c
Will Claude 3.5 Sonnet rank higher than GPT-4o on LMSYS leaderboard?
1w7ohogehtw
null
null
null
null
qege69zvjqj
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yeah I agree most likely ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
Yvk7qrDuAlRs4ZtKl9Fi
public
contract
1,718,983,853,226
which-of-the-ten-biblical-plagues-o
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
📜Which of the Ten Biblical Plagues of Egypt will strike New York City in 2024?
wna8x0w7yac
null
13.704574
NO
7e5da4acf91c
wk6e0eq5njg
false
c2Q3v9ZsOYVcu1LtICgkfAb3dG92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hmmmm, I guess I will sell my shares and take the profits now. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "t...
FAKEMON3Y
261ZqrZ0m5Q6apEhLcup
public
contract
1,718,983,879,849
will-manifold-still-be-functioning
FakeMoney
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FFakeMoney%2FUCSjrV6DUK.38?alt=media&token=64ebabfb-bd10-4fd5-a48b-30900bbb71ed
Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?
qvyfp16wfma
0.807567
-0
YES
null
oqly4v9z2y
false
sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
vVv
1vwl81497o
public
contract
1,718,983,906,814
will-claude-35-sonnet-rank-higher-t
vVv
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc217hRvo5DrxSz_u1Qgbbkv-2nqvvCWdszujgbw4A_=s96-c
Will Claude 3.5 Sonnet rank higher than GPT-4o on LMSYS leaderboard?
1w7ohogehtw
null
null
null
null
vk9koz2spf
false
sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
vVv
1vwl81497o
public
contract
1,718,983,965,403
will-claude-35-sonnet-rank-higher-t
vVv
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc217hRvo5DrxSz_u1Qgbbkv-2nqvvCWdszujgbw4A_=s96-c
Will Claude 3.5 Sonnet rank higher than GPT-4o on LMSYS leaderboard?
null
null
null
null
null
6d7g0m46bdl
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Disqualifying some potential candidates (Like Hamas) is ok.", ...
Bruno
hNEBP19ImdDj7ugd8Ugk
public
contract
1,718,984,013,100
will-the-state-of-palestine-hold-a
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
hpylxcdjak
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think that would settle as no? This specifically asked about a major mistake within the comparison, not misleading framing.", "type": "text...
Shaked Koplewitz
id0u55fyz2
public
contract
1,718,984,266,162
is-there-a-major-error-in-httpstior
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Is there a major error in this transit-vs-car comparison https://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=88 ?
zclb18iy35i
0.877858
349.674391
YES
null
iszz9t92qiq
false
dhCrgRRZIQTGtUh7edfosuFHU1F3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I found this market hilarious, so I made a derivative market about this one if anyone is interested", "type": "text" } ], ...
GiovaGa
Yvk7qrDuAlRs4ZtKl9Fi
public
contract
1,718,984,558,192
which-of-the-ten-biblical-plagues-o
GiovanniGaio
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI5_9ld4r8jV1QllGSBJ8FBMflzLViK-KkjqGLMuZ3VryjfxQ=s96-c
📜Which of the Ten Biblical Plagues of Egypt will strike New York City in 2024?
null
null
107.719998
NO
233df5325570
95nst5vjq1p
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Lol nice ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
Yvk7qrDuAlRs4ZtKl9Fi
public
contract
1,718,984,662,279
which-of-the-ten-biblical-plagues-o
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
📜Which of the Ten Biblical Plagues of Egypt will strike New York City in 2024?
iszz9t92qiq
null
13.704574
NO
7e5da4acf91c
hdhh77dr8ah
false
cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "My thesis:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { ...
uair01
c0RAHpOtHGvcTkhSkDN6
public
contract
1,718,984,848,931
will-there-be-fighting-in-crimea-as
uair01
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c
Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?
null
null
null
null
null
dgy7hpuacd7
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's going to be hard to prove the not-ever-pregnant view, I suspect, but the circumstantial evidence is piling up. Even if this N/As, I'm calling it a...
Al Quinn
NbPoV2oNedBzwrFBY0mn
public
contract
1,718,985,397,523
how-did-charlotte-the-stingray-conc
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
How did Charlotte the stingray conceive her pups?
mxgfch20kj
null
1,478.94887
YES
3315f30a92f8
e8ii5b7c0fu
false
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Got a meta clarification about whether the 231 number is from Dandelions, and the answer seems to be yes. So, technically I am not responsible for ", ...
Panfilo
PglBs5rcGHkotQZL76ik
public
contract
1,718,985,527,752
will-panfilo-finish-baba-is-you-by
Panfilo
https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b
Will @Panfilo finish Baba is You by the end of 2024?
null
0.281315
1,433.336279
YES
null
s5g7bpl23di
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How do you explain polling results like this? ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
Timothy Johnson
GxVa8YDr8lFnTTKPGHf9
public
contract
1,718,986,049,768
which-party-will-win-the-us-preside-5777ea10ce2a
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Which party will win the US Presidency in Nevada?
tls8yeqhzfk
null
2,352.688754
YES
23855d00ade5
i0b3avffi2s
false
M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "CURRENT GOALS LOST: 3 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ ...
Łukasz Bartoszcze
wmykQEtospWX6cG2UjcE
public
contract
1,718,986,540,298
will-polands-team-concede-more-than
ukaszBartoszcze
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c
Will Poland’s team concede more than six goals during EURO 2024 group phase?
null
0.407523
119.191964
YES
null
4x5a1iofses
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": "", "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lan...
SirCryptomind
5bspd4Kx9spEydEU9GHe
public
contract
1,718,986,866,378
what-event-will-happen-first-nhl-ch
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
What Event Will Happen First: NHL Champion is Crowned OR Verstappen <1 Finish?
null
null
null
null
null