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1,720B
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float64
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float64
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stringclasses
2 values
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12
bc209ardwdg
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "he posted about it on twitter ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content...
stefanie
qAfjQeovkKWHcDJNLinV
public
contract
1,719,025,665,608
will-i-love-daylight-computer
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
Will I love Daylight Computer?
iqq8l4pk9mm
0.56
222.944043
YES
null
ojkpf8rczp
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
vlbjgh5uzj
public
contract
1,719,025,721,300
will-congress-ban-the-sale-of-usa-c-o8pxdhtr4k
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Congress ban the sale of USA citizen genetic information to foreign companies or organizations by end of 2026?
null
null
null
null
null
z1l1hvrzt0b
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
xva9knf923
public
contract
1,719,025,733,936
will-congress-ban-the-sale-of-usa-c
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Congress ban the sale of USA citizen genetic information to foreign companies or organizations by end of 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
g4duib49l1u
false
petoMIbaMqdGwl3agbOXjlZVMJs1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I’m sorry but you simply don’t understand how probability works. saying there was a 1% chance of something happening isn’t the same as thinking it will...
Dylan Slagh
YaB5L4NTfzHMOq7dJrRl
public
contract
1,719,025,737,750
who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-f13eee1bee08
DylanSlagh
https://firebasestorage.…65f-b7f20ae0bdd7
Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?
ccnpjvmse3v
null
133.935052
YES
38a9cb60e854
hr2bstw30bn
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "🧵 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "a...
stefanie
qAfjQeovkKWHcDJNLinV
public
contract
1,719,025,749,260
will-i-love-daylight-computer
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
Will I love Daylight Computer?
iqq8l4pk9mm
0.56
222.944043
YES
null
uol9c24zdi
false
13plihwXYbcbcOexVdT6FwxILnn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Very high praise, now I’m tempted 😂", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
siraben
qAfjQeovkKWHcDJNLinV
public
contract
1,719,025,960,401
will-i-love-daylight-computer
siraben
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIs4A4vujbdVB1d-wqB5ZbOQIv-B3jMwt3yjf6luBMT=s96-c
Will I love Daylight Computer?
iqq8l4pk9mm
null
null
null
null
9ztfhjvfiw
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
chris (strutheo)
4p4z5emli8
public
contract
1,719,026,071,883
will-martin-shkreli-pay-domer-20000
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Martin Shkreli pay @Domer ~$30,000 USD as a result of their bet by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
ipb4pgwc0sa
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
chris (strutheo)
3ont4nhj91
public
contract
1,719,026,076,361
will-domer-win-his-70k-bet-against
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will @Domer win his $70k bet against Martin Shkreli over the authenticity of $DJT on Solana?
null
null
null
null
null
hq2xy8ncsoc
false
RK6Nd7IBfMVOcLekfqcN9Ys17qJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You get 0 mana if you bet the wrong way. You didn't bet that there was a 1% chance of it happening, you simply bet that it would indeed happen, and los...
Peter Njeim
YaB5L4NTfzHMOq7dJrRl
public
contract
1,719,026,598,454
who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-f13eee1bee08
PeterNjeim
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKEfIjg6agfzK10gUG7Pht9z6y3O1nV87K7pQwUqKf_0HE=s96-c
Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?
ccnpjvmse3v
null
21,105.028322
YES
38a9cb60e854
m9orfhl1l79
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "less than 10 days left", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
rAUgi5YYPXELc6c6Nsxa
public
contract
1,719,027,158,600
which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-bqmuxd42c5
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in June 2024 according to Manifold?
null
null
1,385.880292
YES
j4bhkj2ym5
o46rtvue7
false
wwuaYatAY3bXzQ6i9xC4H48GZgr1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Probably, after all people be be way more cautious.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" ...
Guilherme sampaio de oliveira
o8TvlRRQyQtgeCpOdtn5
public
contract
1,719,027,573,295
if-manifold-begins-allowing-realmon
Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKoJOpm-sb0ENGUKYt8F0z4JclT_9o-RGiWD3ED5lpC=s96-c
If Manifold begins allowing real-money withdrawals, will its accuracy improve?
null
null
null
null
null
3fanf2isex3
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think I'd have to start cold plunging for this to be viable - it's been autumnal at best every day since I arrived :( ", "type": "text" ...
stefanie
zyvtbg9wns
public
contract
1,719,027,799,927
bay-area-bingo-what-will-i-experien-6ufcpdbqcj
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
Bay Area Bingo: what will I experience/encounter while living here for two months?
null
null
593.794065
YES
9ug9mw7pw2
o9zklxc399
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "not too late to come for this ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "AAlytu8Z2cYd1ewYzuqhkU9NMgt2", ...
stefanie
zyvtbg9wns
public
contract
1,719,027,865,509
bay-area-bingo-what-will-i-experien-6ufcpdbqcj
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
Bay Area Bingo: what will I experience/encounter while living here for two months?
mhf3o6wcixj
null
593.794065
YES
9ug9mw7pw2
qcmjn90gwie
false
dEvAkoH19rTcIENraMy3kZyHOe82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "label": "HarrisonLucas", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "ment...
Luke Hanks (HankyUSA)
DHGzkbRsfbCUIlz5bf0w
public
contract
1,719,028,906,242
will-i-aella-convert-to-christianit
HankyUSA
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrs9Q53gYHp6HbnXlXHhLBPcjB8HOvuaWTt58yPYSM=s96-c
Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
null
null
null
null
null
lypceqmmec
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ah he just said he doesn't have apple devices. Does he have an android phone tho?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragrap...
Ernie
tT4sOpBfFlIVgRfJQjxU
public
contract
1,719,029,219,884
iphone-vs-android-who-uses-what-meg
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
iPhone (0%) vs Android (100%) - who uses what? MegaMarket.
uzj5754glh
null
null
null
null
vppq9b8id8i
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "ENDING SOON! get your votes in by liking the comments below", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type"...
chris (strutheo)
vS3j92Y86VrDoQNpR7NR
public
contract
1,719,029,245,011
what-will-be-the-best-ai-generated-2aa4f85e33f3
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
🖼️What will be the best AI generated Manifold banner created in Q2 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
0
NO
0daaf4ef00fd
1qh6k9ran2r
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "yes lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
tT4sOpBfFlIVgRfJQjxU
public
contract
1,719,029,397,403
iphone-vs-android-who-uses-what-meg
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
iPhone (0%) vs Android (100%) - who uses what? MegaMarket.
uzj5754glh
null
588.509955
YES
036c13a140c4
lb720jrakrf
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump ending soon", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
24mQqMb8htfXdywFa9n3
public
contract
1,719,029,628,192
what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-69a6850abbfb
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
🗳️💭What will Manifold's Approval Rating be at end of Q2 2024? [Poll Index]
null
null
null
null
null
xiiuggln2gd
false
MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We shall see. Which 10 cities satisfy the criteria?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" ...
Jim
tlOBpptrUOJI6Jkjr2Y6
public
contract
1,719,029,643,998
will-at-least-10-world-cities-have
JimAusman
https://firebasestorage.…02c-9c3e2d7602ee
Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?
pvdvr3wfmis
0.83
9,204.765832
NO
null
94k2ujb8mhc
false
wwuaYatAY3bXzQ6i9xC4H48GZgr1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Mana sink.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Guilherme sampaio de oliveira
Isyvyfy31GGMbiA4IW8J
public
contract
1,719,029,760,076
will-fasterthanlight-communication
Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKoJOpm-sb0ENGUKYt8F0z4JclT_9o-RGiWD3ED5lpC=s96-c
Will faster-than-light communication be possible before 2300?
null
null
null
null
null
4qeg95ix069
false
afvHuW6hmwPvBa18xa0Rnx1ezIa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What?? This question is preposterous, of course the brain is quantum; it relies on proteins whose structure is determined by its constituent electrons ...
Jesse
otIwVPvCPLaNkYPw1DMB
public
contract
1,719,030,205,012
is-the-brain-quantum
Jessec57m
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJop0Nq7j2XzvPB4DfmrKcxfyebPeK_tozhELXOFSFPN67y=s96-c
Is the brain quantum?
null
null
null
null
null
fepu9k0eq4o
false
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It’s in the job description.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tricky Duck
9rMVphdk0G6sUA39oMZO
public
contract
1,719,030,404,916
does-the-catholic-pope-truly-believ
TrickyDuck
https://firebasestorage.…b03-a48bf6d36fa7
Does the Catholic Pope truly believe that God exists?
null
null
null
null
null
32vqlbop9eq
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
chris (strutheo)
6co59nkant
public
contract
1,719,030,680,436
will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-88qfsqp8p8
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of Halloween 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
gq01l7rirxq
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
chris (strutheo)
7ush1oa14a
public
contract
1,719,030,752,545
will-the-teamsters-president-speak
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the Teamsters president speak at both the DNC and RNC conventions in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
mb72giz4bn
false
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why would this depend on you dying? People tell me to go to hell all the time, and it’s clear that they want me to do it ASAP instead of waiting until...
Tricky Duck
HFiJXLzEFWqGEmPEmhRZ
public
contract
1,719,030,805,329
will-i-go-to-hell-when-i-die
TrickyDuck
https://firebasestorage.…b03-a48bf6d36fa7
Will I go to hell when I die?
null
null
null
null
null
thx1nkxvyi
false
nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "None of this was attempted on the moon.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
David Bolin
g2vl97yo5d
public
contract
1,719,030,956,974
will-ron-jeremy-live-long-enough-to-rz3igd40ln
DavidBolin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxBDzHEeklms-AzWLaDGByiape0wpIwJKLyGQDu=s96-c
Will Ron Jeremy live long enough to see the first released sex/porn film shot on the moon?
vf2g73guy8i
null
null
null
null
7y4wfsqu9h
false
nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The listed attempts did not happen on the moon, nor were they intended to happen there.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "pa...
David Bolin
g2vl97yo5d
public
contract
1,719,030,983,832
will-ron-jeremy-live-long-enough-to-rz3igd40ln
DavidBolin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxBDzHEeklms-AzWLaDGByiape0wpIwJKLyGQDu=s96-c
Will Ron Jeremy live long enough to see the first released sex/porn film shot on the moon?
null
null
null
null
null
7koggh78zf
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "a week to go!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
public
contract
1,719,030,988,212
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
204.01187
YES
99f4a2dc15f0
sq5ka8mleh
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "they were just a point of reference because nothing has happened on the moon yet", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph...
chris (strutheo)
g2vl97yo5d
public
contract
1,719,031,012,547
will-ron-jeremy-live-long-enough-to-rz3igd40ln
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Ron Jeremy live long enough to see the first released sex/porn film shot on the moon?
7y4wfsqu9h
null
null
null
null
tnd4zzwkhm
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "boosted", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
wcqjkvv47g
public
contract
1,719,031,182,426
which-ai-will-be-the-best-at-the-en
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2024?
null
null
724.538576
NO
4g141z5w12
mjgskm8cpp
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ii4d7faxzp", "label": "/strutheo/will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-hl44chqzn4", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null,...
chris (strutheo)
2xykgjy752
public
contract
1,719,031,226,822
will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-m9wkwm6kta
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of August 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
q2smaaahoqs
false
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The problem with monogamy is that men and women are bad at math; many men think monogamy means more than one, while quite a few women think it means le...
Tricky Duck
JK4fTIoiI9q1bXtq6f3Y
public
contract
1,719,031,321,323
monogamy-stock
TrickyDuck
https://firebasestorage.…b03-a48bf6d36fa7
Monogamy Stock
null
null
null
null
null
xq7grjzxgzj
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "one week left!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
h33Uh9g5fryaEhLKHizU
public
contract
1,719,031,423,560
will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-3f74609d4b03
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of June?
null
null
null
null
null
2jnudhflcol
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "june almost over", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
R3a7GxrB11JRxfUES3F3
public
contract
1,719,031,439,404
will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-fd2e84e1158d
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of July?
null
null
null
null
null
vmqszekjewg
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "june amost over", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
2izhMMUtGuQ5V3tRlwB6
public
contract
1,719,031,446,754
will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-93a66f5dbdb7
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of August?
null
null
null
null
null
w8ed5sm2j7
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "upgraded to basic", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
7ush1oa14a
public
contract
1,719,031,580,676
will-the-teamsters-president-speak
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the Teamsters president speak at both the DNC and RNC conventions in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
wlmb6z78uef
false
AAlytu8Z2cYd1ewYzuqhkU9NMgt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Oh that looks cool! Wait, am I not supposed to be the one finding cool events for you?!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "pa...
niko
zyvtbg9wns
public
contract
1,719,031,598,873
bay-area-bingo-what-will-i-experien-6ufcpdbqcj
Nikos
https://firebasestorage.…a97-2c3621c2928b
Bay Area Bingo: what will I experience/encounter while living here for two months?
mhf3o6wcixj
null
14.69461
YES
43if0fsef8
2rv812xkga5
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "upgraded to basic! gl to the team", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
ia2u2bkhen
public
contract
1,719,031,671,165
will-manifold-break-2000-engaged-us
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Manifold break 2000 engaged users by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
431jwazw5t1
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "boosted", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
gzie4upnjq
public
contract
1,719,031,810,075
will-china-overtake-the-usas-econom
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
plyhnsmuwe
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "boosted", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
t1ltjjud4g
public
contract
1,719,031,882,321
will-there-be-a-chinese-ai-better-t
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will there be a Chinese AI better than OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
jympacibu8
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "boosted", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
0jw26dwpsk
public
contract
1,719,031,976,978
will-any-usa-state-ban-self-driving
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
udmokt8t18
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "boosted", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds...
chris (strutheo)
looghsz8cb
public
contract
1,719,031,986,101
will-any-usa-state-ban-self-driving-4vk7u9355l
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
xdv5fsg3e9h
false
hKEp2h0WvHO6eTtHUSQuptnrLgb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Gen Z started in 1998… We do indeed vote.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gavin Bogie
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,719,032,008,677
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
GavinBogie
https://storage.googleap…USQuptnrLgb2.png
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
yjkfdng4h4a
null
3,129.847918
YES
33b8f3dc81b9
pyl5zfudd7
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "ends soon!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
m3iS1REE8buHAF0IxufG
public
contract
1,719,032,419,871
w-nvidias-stock-price-be-higher-tha
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Nvidia's stock price be higher than Manifold's Engaged Users at the end of June? (adjust 10x if split)
null
null
null
null
null
vmx8zy7yx7
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "boosted", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
iu8av6xplg
public
contract
1,719,032,521,582
will-noam-chomsky-live-to-see-chat
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Noam Chomsky live to see Chat GPT 5 release?
null
null
null
null
null
c2crdl2asz7
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
chris (strutheo)
1y80gk7t9k
public
contract
1,719,032,628,565
will-openais-gpt6-release-before-ro
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will OpenAI's GPT6 release before Rockstar's GTA6?
null
null
null
null
null
9okxh3bn2mf
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "subsidized", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contract...
chris (strutheo)
mvhgk9vgmi
public
contract
1,719,032,686,783
will-chat-gpt-6-release-before-ssi
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Chat GPT 6 release before SSI releases their first model?
null
null
null
null
null
9gf9j9mjnj
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "added mana ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contrac...
chris (strutheo)
ok8eh356xn
public
contract
1,719,032,785,802
will-grand-theft-auto-6-release-bef-fu4xr7u3q8
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Grand Theft Auto 6 release before Spider-Man: Beyond the spider-verse?
null
null
null
null
null
qxeldvevd8
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "supposed to", "type": "text" }, ...
stefanie
zyvtbg9wns
public
contract
1,719,033,028,666
bay-area-bingo-what-will-i-experien-6ufcpdbqcj
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
Bay Area Bingo: what will I experience/encounter while living here for two months?
mhf3o6wcixj
null
593.794065
YES
9ug9mw7pw2
i66sgdi83qo
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "subsidized ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contrac...
chris (strutheo)
u4mj8ysab4
public
contract
1,719,033,171,532
will-noam-chomsky-live-to-watch-spi
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Noam Chomsky live to watch Spider-Man Beyond the Spider-Verse?
null
null
null
null
null
4tt5xm1fsog
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Q2 poll soon: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "24mQqMb8htfXdywFa9n3", "label": "/st...
chris (strutheo)
yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj
public
contract
1,719,033,264,326
manifold-leadership-approval-rating
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
null
null
null
null
null
dcyt6202zv7
false
faAZQRWR2YTPZJAYEXhw56ydDHL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So this question has a higher prob than the one dated 2400. So much for rational markets. In reality all these questions are daft because they can nev...
Chris Mills
CLJ2U294tvUiMb4XPBN2
public
contract
1,719,033,291,315
will-humans-go-extinct-by-2200
ChrisMillsc5f7
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLmttkO7a_SkKKmgvJV_wh3BtRxvZZxf0PCf1Z7MbCn=s96-c
Will Humans go extinct by 2200?
null
null
null
null
null
7z7ybwmgn9e
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "boosted", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
kmYKPUWhxrArYdx05dXb
public
contract
1,719,034,129,472
will-internet-archive-win-its-appea
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Internet Archive win it's appeal in the Hachette v Internet Archive copyright infringement case?
null
null
null
null
null
fwly6rvtfcl
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I am not thrilled by this framing “Trumpisms” which is like “Kids Say The Darndest Things” or “Those Crazy Etruscans” (these are old things). But I wil...
ClubmasterTransparent
kunxgmp71i
public
contract
1,719,034,349,084
first-debate-trumpisms-megamarket-w
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
First Debate Trump-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Trump say?
null
null
368.901071
YES
0vnp2copcw
ltzr4wzh0g9
false
UApY3JY4UNPKE2rlXRM6EZJD8eF3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolved, not sure what to do about the remaining one answer", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type...
Erik
faFeMIkvhM4UZNW23umO
public
contract
1,719,034,465,621
why-was-dr-disrespect-banned-from-t
Kire_
https://firebasestorage.…44d-7c8fd5546156
Why was Dr Disrespect banned from Twitch?
x2vh7qmade
null
null
null
null
6qv00m9pljw
false
xfvv2IHWADa6xJjECe73FFXU3CV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Whoa, deep, you're the first person I've heard make the argument that Trumps rhetoric, while funny, emboldens ", "type": "text" } ...
EugeneBixby
kunxgmp71i
public
contract
1,719,034,839,861
first-debate-trumpisms-megamarket-w
EugeneBixby
https://firebasestorage.…a71-2fe7e17f7e21
First Debate Trump-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Trump say?
fwly6rvtfcl
null
367.352376
YES
qx84n3ojga
pow66czo5ml
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "can ask mods to na?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
faFeMIkvhM4UZNW23umO
public
contract
1,719,035,145,029
why-was-dr-disrespect-banned-from-t
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Why was Dr Disrespect banned from Twitch?
x2vh7qmade
null
234.495942
NO
1b600da2510a
4fgkqlzwchb
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "actually the minor wasnt a high profile streamer so probably no (afaik)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
chris (strutheo)
faFeMIkvhM4UZNW23umO
public
contract
1,719,035,170,486
why-was-dr-disrespect-banned-from-t
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Why was Dr Disrespect banned from Twitch?
x2vh7qmade
null
234.495942
NO
1b600da2510a
idtfhawypoj
false
wwuaYatAY3bXzQ6i9xC4H48GZgr1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There is one in the works? I hope they make the treadmills require energy.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Guilherme sampaio de oliveira
EBN4B5JbNQBrf91Ih8sh
public
contract
1,719,035,379,068
when-will-the-factorio-expansion-be
Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKoJOpm-sb0ENGUKYt8F0z4JclT_9o-RGiWD3ED5lpC=s96-c
When will the Factorio expansion be released?
null
null
null
null
null
fwb4tmfp47u
false
g0UYkkAx4QhDU36I4V9QitRWWPn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Happy One
BmeQJCpUqNSwnL63HTcg
public
contract
1,719,036,427,780
will-mark-cuban-run-for-president-b
HappyOne
https://firebasestorage.…3cc-5897a42012e6
Will Mark Cuban run for president before the Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA Championship again?
null
0.026452
351.913241
NO
null
n5pdqadnfh
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "short one ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contract...
chris (strutheo)
czdea2zraa
public
contract
1,719,036,824,663
will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-hp04j4u5cz
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Nvidia be the largest company by market cap at the end of June?
null
null
null
null
null
fnedp5vw7qr
false
91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How motivated are you to avoid this knowledge for as long as possible?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
PhilosophyBear
zQjTdnwzODrLlrtPz9r2
public
contract
1,719,037,141,954
how-many-days-will-i-manage-not-kno
PhilosophyBear
https://firebasestorage.…5e9-4830e79d2cee
How many days will I manage not knowing who won the US election? (1 day=10%)
null
null
null
null
null
nnjzr5pgly
false
XjQkiHiqafYpjWGxR0PVmY8vGbI3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just any part of either song at any of the 3 wembley shows would count, a medley of either during the surprise song set would definitely count!", ...
Sara
ap5likbuw7
public
contract
1,719,037,492,480
will-taylor-swift-sing-so-long-lond
csgoldie
https://firebasestorage.…223-862625d8ff10
Will Taylor Swift sing "So Long London" and/or "London Boy" during her Wembley shows in JUNE.
j8grymb3wg
0.826012
94.465832
YES
null
f2pr1ddwhjl
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "To confirm, 10th of June exact close was 0.8457, which rounds up to 0.85, so it would resolve 0.85 (0.85-0.86 on the advanced betting bar) even though ...
Daniel
Oh1QW6TMHtYvHI5P9YTX
public
contract
1,719,037,511,297
euro-to-pound-after-uk-elections
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
Euro to Pound After UK Elections? (July 5)
null
null
386.898698
YES
sqgqzttp3i
oknbjivkt7
false
B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "PWH4JqBzijQquOebZtvvYbrK7iq1", "label": "MatthewLichti", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "ment...
Elliot Davies
YUSYFKsEb8E2gYHxdBOA
public
contract
1,719,037,671,000
what-organization-will-be-the-first-8fc809e01f4a
ElliotDavies
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
G31FkwfISYG2RyY7k0eL
null
144.675686
YES
4ca522a38262
03ss74m4v7un
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
SirCryptomind
5bspd4Kx9spEydEU9GHe
public
contract
1,719,037,760,854
what-event-will-happen-first-nhl-ch
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
What Event Will Happen First: NHL Champion is Crowned OR Verstappen <1 Finish?
null
null
null
null
null
c44njxgtmg7
false
B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Nice market", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Elliot Davies
KfUtCcHqKRfw845V20vl
public
contract
1,719,037,914,516
will-this-tweet-hold-up-sora-will-s-6703f8304ab9
ElliotDavies
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c
will this tweet hold up: Sora will sign an exclusive deal with giant film production studios [read description]
null
null
null
null
null
yu80biwzdx
false
uKcjazFwIkhMFvhie6cnANL8MTV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Creator's account has been deleted after incorrectly resolving some of these N/A. This seems against ", "type": "text" }, { ...
Karl K.
mLmDUWJ0FHHAvNQtC6ow
public
contract
1,719,038,555,842
from-today-to-after-the-presidentia
KarlK
https://firebasestorage.…e18-995693e838cc
From today to after the presidential inauguration in 2041, will the US have at least one president who is ___?
null
null
null
null
null
6c21exqk0fa
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That is not what I expected", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
Oh1QW6TMHtYvHI5P9YTX
public
contract
1,719,038,646,676
euro-to-pound-after-uk-elections
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Euro to Pound After UK Elections? (July 5)
f2pr1ddwhjl
null
1,706.196925
YES
sqgqzttp3i
ykyg5sizg28
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2025 version: ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { ...
chris (strutheo)
wcqjkvv47g
public
contract
1,719,038,697,668
which-ai-will-be-the-best-at-the-en
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2024?
null
null
368.691471
YES
edlvkqqell
7p7iqvgcql
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "upgraded", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
0583y57tjd
public
contract
1,719,038,765,189
which-ai-will-be-the-best-at-the-en-g1kg24yy8h
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
null
null
280.920513
YES
wzv5gfq7cu
782u0okjtmn
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "👀 Short status update: We had an appointment for today, but ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "s...
Lion
3bual7owjg
public
contract
1,719,039,112,664
will-i-ever-meet-lion-in-person
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
Will I meet @Lion in person in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
1ifer56a6lij
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Me either, trying to understand what \"Rules:  Rounded to the hundredths.\" means", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragrap...
Daniel
Oh1QW6TMHtYvHI5P9YTX
public
contract
1,719,039,362,007
euro-to-pound-after-uk-elections
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
Euro to Pound After UK Elections? (July 5)
f2pr1ddwhjl
null
386.898698
YES
sqgqzttp3i
o6lp1r0hcg
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No problem, as long as people arbitrage and these questions have completely different probabilities 👀 ", "type": "text" } ], ...
Lion
m26sqnfh9s
public
contract
1,719,039,388,920
which-company-will-be-the-largest-i-pcbi1d0eg1
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
Which company will be the largest in the world by market cap at the end of 2024?
hrt4799xmy5
null
null
null
null
sd7feymap3
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's godd thing that cold plunging is on trend right now ❄ ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type"...
Lion
zyvtbg9wns
public
contract
1,719,039,613,555
bay-area-bingo-what-will-i-experien-6ufcpdbqcj
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
Bay Area Bingo: what will I experience/encounter while living here for two months?
3fanf2isex3
null
13.532288
YES
xnev8kb3xy
5n9i0uvh54i
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "still hope!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
3bual7owjg
public
contract
1,719,039,716,048
will-i-ever-meet-lion-in-person
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will I meet @Lion in person in 2024?
782u0okjtmn
null
null
null
null
ypxsp16kitc
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm saying that if he is elected in 2024, he will be president \"at any point in 2029\" if he serves his full term.", "type": "text" ...
Daniel
GkRXhhuI6vBD09IIniPz
public
contract
1,719,039,750,297
will-trump-be-president-at-any-poin
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
Will Trump be President at any point in 2029?
dpcvkh1pyo
0.434714
609.384266
YES
null
2wwgc4bljyc
false
sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm soooorrry 😭 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
redcat
3bual7owjg
public
contract
1,719,039,780,865
will-i-ever-meet-lion-in-person
redcat
https://firebasestorage.…35d-f375e7e7fe68
Will I meet @Lion in person in 2024?
782u0okjtmn
null
null
null
null
itpso32rsv
false
13plihwXYbcbcOexVdT6FwxILnn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This should be 0, IMO. But, I don’t want to lock up my mana for 1.5 years.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
siraben
fZ4hn4bhzvkRVBTWwpAr
public
contract
1,719,039,829,627
will-worldcoin-report-a-billion-use
siraben
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIs4A4vujbdVB1d-wqB5ZbOQIv-B3jMwt3yjf6luBMT=s96-c
Will Worldcoin report a billion user signups before 2026
null
null
null
null
null
dwb8184duid
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Limit orders up if you want to bet no. NASA pretty woke and has a lot of female austronauts (have a google)", "type": "text" } ...
Daniel
TOQNSaJxXIHygzIs3S4e
public
contract
1,719,039,860,855
what-percent-of-people-who-land-on
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
What percent of people who land on the moon in the next 30 years will be female
null
null
380.502466
NO
7d3fc691f064
u8bb91lfw3
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "halfway through the year now, keep adding more", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
aHCmNidrZfPY7om4Uysf
public
contract
1,719,039,981,256
which-market-will-be-manifolds-favo
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which market will be Manifold's favorite market of 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
0
NO
0002a1f27d6e
z9obyj0qnjj
false
XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The funny thing most people don't know about Jeffrey Sachs is that he's a shill for China. Like, he ", "type": "text" }, { ...
Peter Miller
4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7
public
contract
1,719,040,533,582
did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory
PeterMillerc030
https://firebasestorage.…12a-e0019b6a7e37
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
lb792xnl9z
0.554497
299,214.049457
NO
null
4wkq4g3zxo5
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "According to a report published by the Paris region and mayor's office, a...
Eliza
KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh
public
contract
1,719,040,718,355
will-any-event-of-the-paris-2024-ol
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Will any event of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games be postponed or cancelled due to the water quality of the Seine?
null
null
null
null
null
snxqwhgdkro
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Acc thinks I'm really wrong on this one, but.....", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliza
KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh
public
contract
1,719,040,752,675
will-any-event-of-the-paris-2024-ol
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Will any event of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games be postponed or cancelled due to the water quality of the Seine?
null
0.53
1,231.166534
YES
null
0clmuj9dxeoe
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How many do you have so far?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content":...
Eliza
1ab825kfr4
public
contract
1,719,040,853,393
how-many-people-will-subscribe-to-m
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
How many people will subscribe to my Substack in the next week?
null
null
null
null
null
9h42l2f2xpa
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Eliza
KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh
public
contract
1,719,041,277,173
will-any-event-of-the-paris-2024-ol
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Will any event of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games be postponed or cancelled due to the water quality of the Seine?
4wkq4g3zxo5
0.53
1,231.166534
YES
null
7sdrqnzoa3e
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How's it going?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Benjamin Ikuta
2qhPbFl3ELh9oNFU5ULk
public
contract
1,719,041,356,294
will-ai-be-successfully-editing-wik
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?
null
null
null
null
null
50ygchcy52w
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How does this resolve if the trans women population is heterogeneous/ clustered into different root causes? (I.e. Each population has different reasons...
Rana G
BPuhcJO9SmLJFgxiV1Cz
public
contract
1,719,041,571,764
if-a-solid-neurological-study-of-tr
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
If a solid neurological study of trans women gets performed, what will the results most resemble?
null
null
null
null
null
p7k2xw0oew
false
8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Results confirmed recently. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
Mike Chen
eW9qd836rtb6pb9fj00s
public
contract
1,719,042,048,203
who-will-win-the-berkeley-city-coun-8adb5bf4823b
MikeChenSF
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr-veg201DGQzF4jqPWo9dgBl01vEy2ksiaZA4BSRo=s96-c
Who will win the Berkeley City Council District 4 special election?
q9pxzulh1le
null
254.679595
NO
9de2223383d2
uf03rvqiw5
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I can't believe ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "la...
Lion
bx2v412mth
public
contract
1,719,042,142,595
will-egan-bernal-win-another-grand
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
Will Egan Bernal win another Grand Tour in his career?
null
0.606862
43.755932
YES
null
4b7jpbpqk89
false
sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Good luck!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
redcat
32xrt2i6kh
public
contract
1,719,042,937,263
will-i-cure-my-aphantasia-by-2025
redcat
https://firebasestorage.…35d-f375e7e7fe68
Will I cure my aphantasia by 2025?
null
0.52359
94.465832
YES
null
tt7em40h1dr
false
EtuwNVUCCLb5gLA4uuaXraLJ2zZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3", "label": "UniversalFC", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Czech O
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,719,042,989,277
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
CzechO
https://firebasestorage.…eeb-f7520af84c98
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
null
null
151.121271
YES
793aa73b5720
ntrzafgaarm
false
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Honestly, I'm so fucking fucking sick of democratic incompetence/denial over biden that it makes me slightly look forward to trump, god damn fuck it. e...
Stochastic Cockatoo
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,719,043,014,756
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
StochasticParrot
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
null
null
1,466.037507
NO
51e4cacd136a
59b2enx4nyh
false
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Honestly, I'm so fucking fucking sick of democratic incompetence/denial over biden's age (cf glenn greenward) that it makes me slightly look forward to...
Stochastic Cockatoo
IGC7eGFkKTlsh97E7Yry
public
contract
1,719,043,044,736
are-manifold-users-voting-for-trump
StochasticParrot
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
Are Manifold users voting for Trump or Biden in the 2024 election? [RESOLVES BY %]
null
null
null
null
null
y4o77vo0t3
false
EtuwNVUCCLb5gLA4uuaXraLJ2zZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I meet kris the stutehoe on the X. he said dick picks cum to manifold", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, ...
Czech O
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,719,043,061,585
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
CzechO
https://firebasestorage.…eeb-f7520af84c98
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
tt7em40h1dr
null
151.121271
YES
793aa73b5720
7w98dq1qu6
false
EtuwNVUCCLb5gLA4uuaXraLJ2zZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Nazi fucks", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type...
Czech O
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,719,043,105,979
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
CzechO
https://firebasestorage.…eeb-f7520af84c98
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
nr9reiaj8rq
null
151.121271
YES
793aa73b5720
fhy99cgwb0p
false
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "and a permanently conservative supcourt", "typ...
Stochastic Cockatoo
IGC7eGFkKTlsh97E7Yry
public
contract
1,719,043,107,325
are-manifold-users-voting-for-trump
StochasticParrot
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
Are Manifold users voting for Trump or Biden in the 2024 election? [RESOLVES BY %]
59b2enx4nyh
null
null
null
null
jn2zhejfcba
false
sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Good luck!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
redcat
l3co8dn7k1
public
contract
1,719,043,208,770
will-my-cat-come-back-within-the-ne
redcat
https://firebasestorage.…35d-f375e7e7fe68
Will my cat come back (within the next week)?
null
0.546054
185.00068
YES
null
rb7d1oep5l
false
8AgOEn5pOUahZGukE6BrFzQosC03
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "GPT6 by 2008???", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
AhmedButCooler
1y80gk7t9k
public
contract
1,719,043,256,741
will-openais-gpt6-release-before-ro
AhmedButCooler
https://firebasestorage.…c5d-88709946cd32
Will GPT6 release before GTA6?
c2crdl2asz7
0.311009
74.639097
NO
null
bdhp7g36lf9
false
EtuwNVUCCLb5gLA4uuaXraLJ2zZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2", "label": "SteveSokolowski", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "me...
Czech O
wcqjkvv47g
public
contract
1,719,043,377,140
which-ai-will-be-the-best-at-the-en
CzechO
https://firebasestorage.…eeb-f7520af84c98
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null