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"l... | chris (strutheo) | 4p4z5emli8 | public | contract | 1,719,026,071,883 | will-martin-shkreli-pay-domer-20000 | strutheo | Will Martin Shkreli pay @Domer ~$30,000 USD as a result of their bet by the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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"l... | chris (strutheo) | 3ont4nhj91 | public | contract | 1,719,026,076,361 | will-domer-win-his-70k-bet-against | strutheo | Will @Domer win his $70k bet against Martin Shkreli over the authenticity of $DJT on Solana? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Guilherme sampaio de oliveira | o8TvlRRQyQtgeCpOdtn5 | public | contract | 1,719,027,573,295 | if-manifold-begins-allowing-realmon | Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKoJOpm-sb0ENGUKYt8F0z4JclT_9o-RGiWD3ED5lpC=s96-c | If Manifold begins allowing real-money withdrawals, will its accuracy improve? | null | null | null | null | null |
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... | Jim | tlOBpptrUOJI6Jkjr2Y6 | public | contract | 1,719,029,643,998 | will-at-least-10-world-cities-have | JimAusman | Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025? | pvdvr3wfmis | 0.83 | 9,204.765832 | NO | null | |
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} | Tricky Duck | 9rMVphdk0G6sUA39oMZO | public | contract | 1,719,030,404,916 | does-the-catholic-pope-truly-believ | TrickyDuck | Does the Catholic Pope truly believe that God exists? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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"l... | chris (strutheo) | 6co59nkant | public | contract | 1,719,030,680,436 | will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-88qfsqp8p8 | strutheo | Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of Halloween 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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"l... | chris (strutheo) | 7ush1oa14a | public | contract | 1,719,030,752,545 | will-the-teamsters-president-speak | strutheo | Will the Teamsters president speak at both the DNC and RNC conventions in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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} | Bayesian | Oh1QW6TMHtYvHI5P9YTX | public | contract | 1,719,038,646,676 | euro-to-pound-after-uk-elections | Bayesian | Euro to Pound After UK Elections? (July 5) | f2pr1ddwhjl | null | 1,706.196925 | YES | sqgqzttp3i | |
ykyg5sizg28 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
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... | chris (strutheo) | wcqjkvv47g | public | contract | 1,719,038,697,668 | which-ai-will-be-the-best-at-the-en | strutheo | Which AI will be the best at the end of 2024? | null | null | 368.691471 | YES | edlvkqqell | |
7p7iqvgcql | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
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} | chris (strutheo) | 0583y57tjd | public | contract | 1,719,038,765,189 | which-ai-will-be-the-best-at-the-en-g1kg24yy8h | strutheo | Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025? | null | null | 280.920513 | YES | wzv5gfq7cu | |
782u0okjtmn | false | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | {
"content": [
{
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{
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"text": "👀 Short status update: We had an appointment for today, but ",
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{
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"id": "s... | Lion | 3bual7owjg | public | contract | 1,719,039,112,664 | will-i-ever-meet-lion-in-person | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | Will I meet @Lion in person in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
1ifer56a6lij | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Me either, trying to understand what \"Rules: Rounded to the hundredths.\" means",
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}
],
"type": "paragrap... | Daniel | Oh1QW6TMHtYvHI5P9YTX | public | contract | 1,719,039,362,007 | euro-to-pound-after-uk-elections | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Euro to Pound After UK Elections? (July 5) | f2pr1ddwhjl | null | 386.898698 | YES | sqgqzttp3i |
o6lp1r0hcg | false | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | {
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{
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"text": "No problem, as long as people arbitrage and these questions have completely different probabilities 👀 ",
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],
... | Lion | m26sqnfh9s | public | contract | 1,719,039,388,920 | which-company-will-be-the-largest-i-pcbi1d0eg1 | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | Which company will be the largest in the world by market cap at the end of 2024? | hrt4799xmy5 | null | null | null | null |
sd7feymap3 | false | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | {
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"type"... | Lion | zyvtbg9wns | public | contract | 1,719,039,613,555 | bay-area-bingo-what-will-i-experien-6ufcpdbqcj | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | Bay Area Bingo: what will I experience/encounter while living here for two months? | 3fanf2isex3 | null | 13.532288 | YES | xnev8kb3xy |
5n9i0uvh54i | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
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} | chris (strutheo) | 3bual7owjg | public | contract | 1,719,039,716,048 | will-i-ever-meet-lion-in-person | strutheo | Will I meet @Lion in person in 2024? | 782u0okjtmn | null | null | null | null | |
ypxsp16kitc | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
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{
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"text": "I'm saying that if he is elected in 2024, he will be president \"at any point in 2029\" if he serves his full term.",
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... | Daniel | GkRXhhuI6vBD09IIniPz | public | contract | 1,719,039,750,297 | will-trump-be-president-at-any-poin | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Will Trump be President at any point in 2029? | dpcvkh1pyo | 0.434714 | 609.384266 | YES | null |
2wwgc4bljyc | false | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | {
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],
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} | redcat | 3bual7owjg | public | contract | 1,719,039,780,865 | will-i-ever-meet-lion-in-person | redcat | Will I meet @Lion in person in 2024? | 782u0okjtmn | null | null | null | null | |
itpso32rsv | false | 13plihwXYbcbcOexVdT6FwxILnn2 | {
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{
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{
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"text": "This should be 0, IMO. But, I don’t want to lock up my mana for 1.5 years.",
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],
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... | siraben | fZ4hn4bhzvkRVBTWwpAr | public | contract | 1,719,039,829,627 | will-worldcoin-report-a-billion-use | siraben | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIs4A4vujbdVB1d-wqB5ZbOQIv-B3jMwt3yjf6luBMT=s96-c | Will Worldcoin report a billion user signups before 2026 | null | null | null | null | null |
dwb8184duid | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
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{
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{
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"text": "Limit orders up if you want to bet no. NASA pretty woke and has a lot of female austronauts (have a google)",
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}
... | Daniel | TOQNSaJxXIHygzIs3S4e | public | contract | 1,719,039,860,855 | what-percent-of-people-who-land-on | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | What percent of people who land on the moon in the next 30 years will be female | null | null | 380.502466 | NO | 7d3fc691f064 |
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{
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{
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],
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} | chris (strutheo) | aHCmNidrZfPY7om4Uysf | public | contract | 1,719,039,981,256 | which-market-will-be-manifolds-favo | strutheo | Which market will be Manifold's favorite market of 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | 0 | NO | 0002a1f27d6e | |
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{
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"text": "The funny thing most people don't know about Jeffrey Sachs is that he's a shill for China. Like, he ",
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{
... | Peter Miller | 4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7 | public | contract | 1,719,040,533,582 | did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory | PeterMillerc030 | Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? | lb792xnl9z | 0.554497 | 299,214.049457 | NO | null | |
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"text": "According to a report published by the Paris region and mayor's office, a... | Eliza | KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh | public | contract | 1,719,040,718,355 | will-any-event-of-the-paris-2024-ol | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | Will any event of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games be postponed or cancelled due to the water quality of the Seine? | null | null | null | null | null |
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} | Eliza | KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh | public | contract | 1,719,040,752,675 | will-any-event-of-the-paris-2024-ol | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | Will any event of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games be postponed or cancelled due to the water quality of the Seine? | null | 0.53 | 1,231.166534 | YES | null |
0clmuj9dxeoe | false | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | {
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{
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"text": "How many do you have so far?",
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],
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{
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"content":... | Eliza | 1ab825kfr4 | public | contract | 1,719,040,853,393 | how-many-people-will-subscribe-to-m | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | How many people will subscribe to my Substack in the next week? | null | null | null | null | null |
9h42l2f2xpa | false | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | {
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"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Eliza | KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh | public | contract | 1,719,041,277,173 | will-any-event-of-the-paris-2024-ol | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | Will any event of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games be postponed or cancelled due to the water quality of the Seine? | 4wkq4g3zxo5 | 0.53 | 1,231.166534 | YES | null |
7sdrqnzoa3e | false | h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2 | {
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} | Benjamin Ikuta | 2qhPbFl3ELh9oNFU5ULk | public | contract | 1,719,041,356,294 | will-ai-be-successfully-editing-wik | benjaminIkuta | Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026? | null | null | null | null | null | |
50ygchcy52w | false | zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92 | {
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"text": "How does this resolve if the trans women population is heterogeneous/ clustered into different root causes? (I.e. Each population has different reasons... | Rana G | BPuhcJO9SmLJFgxiV1Cz | public | contract | 1,719,041,571,764 | if-a-solid-neurological-study-of-tr | RanaG | If a solid neurological study of trans women gets performed, what will the results most resemble? | null | null | null | null | null | |
p7k2xw0oew | false | 8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2 | {
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... | Mike Chen | eW9qd836rtb6pb9fj00s | public | contract | 1,719,042,048,203 | who-will-win-the-berkeley-city-coun-8adb5bf4823b | MikeChenSF | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr-veg201DGQzF4jqPWo9dgBl01vEy2ksiaZA4BSRo=s96-c | Who will win the Berkeley City Council District 4 special election? | q9pxzulh1le | null | 254.679595 | NO | 9de2223383d2 |
uf03rvqiw5 | false | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | {
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"la... | Lion | bx2v412mth | public | contract | 1,719,042,142,595 | will-egan-bernal-win-another-grand | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | Will Egan Bernal win another Grand Tour in his career? | null | 0.606862 | 43.755932 | YES | null |
4b7jpbpqk89 | false | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | {
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"text": "Good luck!",
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],
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],
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} | redcat | 32xrt2i6kh | public | contract | 1,719,042,937,263 | will-i-cure-my-aphantasia-by-2025 | redcat | Will I cure my aphantasia by 2025? | null | 0.52359 | 94.465832 | YES | null | |
tt7em40h1dr | false | EtuwNVUCCLb5gLA4uuaXraLJ2zZ2 | {
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ntrzafgaarm | false | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | {
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"text": "Honestly, I'm so fucking fucking sick of democratic incompetence/denial over biden that it makes me slightly look forward to trump, god damn fuck it. e... | Stochastic Cockatoo | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,043,014,756 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | StochasticParrot | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | null | 1,466.037507 | NO | 51e4cacd136a | |
59b2enx4nyh | false | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | {
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"text": "Honestly, I'm so fucking fucking sick of democratic incompetence/denial over biden's age (cf glenn greenward) that it makes me slightly look forward to... | Stochastic Cockatoo | IGC7eGFkKTlsh97E7Yry | public | contract | 1,719,043,044,736 | are-manifold-users-voting-for-trump | StochasticParrot | Are Manifold users voting for Trump or Biden in the 2024 election? [RESOLVES BY %] | null | null | null | null | null | |
y4o77vo0t3 | false | EtuwNVUCCLb5gLA4uuaXraLJ2zZ2 | {
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... | Czech O | 0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2 | public | contract | 1,719,043,061,585 | uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc | CzechO | UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches | tt7em40h1dr | null | 151.121271 | YES | 793aa73b5720 | |
7w98dq1qu6 | false | EtuwNVUCCLb5gLA4uuaXraLJ2zZ2 | {
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{
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"text": "Nazi fucks",
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"type... | Czech O | 0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2 | public | contract | 1,719,043,105,979 | uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc | CzechO | UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches | nr9reiaj8rq | null | 151.121271 | YES | 793aa73b5720 | |
fhy99cgwb0p | false | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | {
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"text": "and a permanently conservative supcourt",
"typ... | Stochastic Cockatoo | IGC7eGFkKTlsh97E7Yry | public | contract | 1,719,043,107,325 | are-manifold-users-voting-for-trump | StochasticParrot | Are Manifold users voting for Trump or Biden in the 2024 election? [RESOLVES BY %] | 59b2enx4nyh | null | null | null | null | |
jn2zhejfcba | false | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | {
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} | redcat | l3co8dn7k1 | public | contract | 1,719,043,208,770 | will-my-cat-come-back-within-the-ne | redcat | Will my cat come back (within the next week)? | null | 0.546054 | 185.00068 | YES | null | |
rb7d1oep5l | false | 8AgOEn5pOUahZGukE6BrFzQosC03 | {
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{
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{
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"text": "GPT6 by 2008???",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | AhmedButCooler | 1y80gk7t9k | public | contract | 1,719,043,256,741 | will-openais-gpt6-release-before-ro | AhmedButCooler | Will GPT6 release before GTA6? | c2crdl2asz7 | 0.311009 | 74.639097 | NO | null | |
bdhp7g36lf9 | false | EtuwNVUCCLb5gLA4uuaXraLJ2zZ2 | {
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{
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"type": "me... | Czech O | wcqjkvv47g | public | contract | 1,719,043,377,140 | which-ai-will-be-the-best-at-the-en | CzechO | Which AI will be the best at the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
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