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... | Eliza | 2GUsUISwAfvlOFfP55F7 | public | contract | 1,719,292,996,190 | will-i-bike-6000-miles-or-more-in-2 | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | Will I bike 6,000 miles or more in 2024 | vvzqvxCDx6UNAwTjspfd | null | null | null | null |
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"ty... | Raymond Christopher Tanto | mtbESy0tYkFzErZph6mV | public | contract | 1,719,293,251,689 | what-will-i-win-at-imo-2024 | RaymondChristopherTanto | What will I win at IMO 2024? | sgz7hsb4ue | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Daniel Tello | 44i3tpf9l2 | public | contract | 1,719,295,617,662 | will-microsoft-be-the-largest-compa | deagol | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "just wait for kizarus light god pika awakening guys it will bo worth it",
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}
],
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}
... | Zahir efe Bekar | GJJKNNWUw5lYK59EGDbT | public | contract | 1,719,298,845,674 | kizaru-stock | ZahirefeBekar | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLB_6Aw0P2RD8U6IKbrz1c2u4pBXJuDIJHafCNayiItE3zFcA=s96-c | Kizaru Stock | null | 0.624345 | 11.524832 | YES | null |
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... | redcat | maa1e1p3ut | public | contract | 1,719,299,125,494 | will-at-least-10-traders-of-this-ma | redcat | Will at least 10 traders of this market trade on all markets of at least 10 traders of this market? | vkie028pkvi | 0.317495 | 141.165452 | NO | null | |
7yepcpkdjnm | false | cWrPMCVn8WPabacghrYOU8mGGGF3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "Resolves yes ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "n3Sjm1oNsTRZPsMmlC4dZHUggjh1",
"label... | Oskar | olKbEoTbd7k95D2abxvh | public | contract | 1,719,299,175,229 | will-kaf-hit-1-million-subscribers | nollfem | Will KAF hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | null | 0.98969 | 1,530.260301 | YES | null | |
uh1o2q600y | false | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | {
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{
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{
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... | Oleg Eterevsky | Riw9kjHgBRhCO5HLPxJ0 | public | contract | 1,719,299,517,810 | when-will-video-chat-with-gpt4o-be | OlegEterevsky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | When will video chat with GPT-4o be available to all premium users? | vjcn9k3ysh7 | null | null | null | null |
vlg4h18o1uf | false | XME7TZ0YG1TxRwLp91N4LDEutyF2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "Should clarify how long a time period solar must exceed all other sources. Data is probably available on a minute by minute basis, or should it be an h... | jrmygrdn | Otle2VP8pgd9wPxQeuTt | public | contract | 1,719,299,791,299 | will-solar-become-the-primary-sourc | jrmygrdn | Will solar become the primary source of electricity in the US before 2040? | null | null | null | null | null | |
59w5kpym9q2 | false | yZ4vp93rmQfBXllZUiI2WKNJaeF2 | {
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{
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{
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"text": "I think what you mean by smaller is whether integer -10 < 4 holds?",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"... | ElectricSteam | dv5pzhi3lg | public | contract | 1,719,300,819,770 | which-number-is-smaller-between-4-o | ElectricSteam | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNq3o7W1unNrbg962fUXzL_KPTLhynNsWcqusZ7gHi-2M=s96-c | Which number is smaller between 4 (YES) and -10 (NO), according to Mathematicians? | null | null | null | null | null |
axkgod4rsr | false | fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83 | {
"content": [
{
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{
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"text": "You might as well add the #self-referring tag. Without proper criteria you're really asking \"will I deem an AI to have resisted shut down by 2027\".",... | t-bird | ru2iuqhlza | public | contract | 1,719,300,927,730 | will-an-ai-system-be-known-to-have-ci7wjtx9hj | tbird | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c | Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026? | null | null | null | null | null |
wzrg11o7sx | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
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"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | JRP | tsdIieK0lhxUbKY9dvyk | public | contract | 1,719,301,129,720 | how-much-will-the-nih-spend-on-long | parhizj | How much will the NIH spend on Long Covid/PASC in 2025? | null | null | 109.660831 | YES | 7cbd9da71355 | |
icbp5zfbin | false | tudHP7KyUuQVm9yjwuSerlRfPAU2 | {
"content": [
{
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{
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"text": "I imagine “in the real world” means something like “not in a lab setting”, i.e., excluding situations like “we put an AI on a virtual machine in a virt... | Tanner Newell | ru2iuqhlza | public | contract | 1,719,301,610,596 | will-an-ai-system-be-known-to-have-ci7wjtx9hj | TannerNewell | Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026? | axkgod4rsr | 0.343145 | 98.574165 | YES | null | |
1c16oxiimac | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
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{
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{
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... | nikki | maa1e1p3ut | public | contract | 1,719,302,315,714 | will-at-least-10-traders-of-this-ma | nikki | Will at least 10 traders of this market trade on all markets of at least 10 traders of this market? | vkie028pkvi | 0.347528 | 7.401758 | NO | null | |
iuwbrldvd6o | false | fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83 | {
"content": [
{
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"content": [
{
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"text": "It may sound like I am being pedantic, but I am not. There are way too many assumptions in the question and in your attempted refining of it to make it... | t-bird | ru2iuqhlza | public | contract | 1,719,302,607,142 | will-an-ai-system-be-known-to-have-ci7wjtx9hj | tbird | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c | Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026? | axkgod4rsr | 0.327677 | 5.812036 | NO | null |
d0lskvg8dz7 | false | wwuaYatAY3bXzQ6i9xC4H48GZgr1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "Why did you vote yes then???",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Guilherme sampaio de oliveira | 82sA3ZMRkk6WyH9SHSu6 | public | contract | 1,719,302,628,609 | will-the-moon-be-nuked-before-2025 | Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKoJOpm-sb0ENGUKYt8F0z4JclT_9o-RGiWD3ED5lpC=s96-c | Will the moon be nuked before 2025 | 8d6gz6qd1eu | 0.028051 | 9.242192 | NO | null |
3cilb0hhr02 | false | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "He doesn't have that many. I didn't start with yours yet, may do it later.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | redcat | maa1e1p3ut | public | contract | 1,719,302,900,578 | will-at-least-10-traders-of-this-ma | redcat | Will at least 10 traders of this market trade on all markets of at least 10 traders of this market? | vkie028pkvi | 0.347528 | 141.165452 | NO | null | |
y0ct00576vd | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"marks": null,
"text": "As a percentage of all adults, or all adults who have ever had Covid?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
]... | JRP | KbosdJPnqi7GnprYiXok | public | contract | 1,719,303,268,058 | how-many-people-will-report-to-curr | parhizj | How many people will report to 'currently have Long Covid' according to the CDC Household Pulse Survey, on Dec 1, 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
utipo86v9c8 | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
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{
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"text": "That is the question whether those mathematicians preserve common sense and see focal point, or implicitly use unconventional definitions in their head... | Kongo Landwalker | dv5pzhi3lg | public | contract | 1,719,303,269,855 | which-number-is-smaller-between-4-o | KongoLandwalker | Which number is smaller between 4 (YES) and -10 (NO), according to Mathematicians? | 59w5kpym9q2 | 0.222417 | 103.510822 | NO | null | |
f9jmq1da83u | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "Interesting..",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | nikki | lzdrs5vfvm | public | contract | 1,719,303,287,137 | do-you-bet-to-earn-mana-in-long-ter | nikki | Do you bet to earn mana in long term markets? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ukswr0gt94j | false | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | {
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{
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{
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... | Oleg Eterevsky | Riw9kjHgBRhCO5HLPxJ0 | public | contract | 1,719,303,813,572 | when-will-video-chat-with-gpt4o-be | OlegEterevsky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | When will video chat with GPT-4o be generally available? | null | null | null | null | null |
ki4kbpfxw2 | false | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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{
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"text": "So, it's a box for which someone pays to stay in to fast forward to some time in the future? Does hotel room qualify?",
"type": "text"
... | Oleg Eterevsky | DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY | public | contract | 1,719,304,274,798 | which-engineering-breakthroughs-wil | OlegEterevsky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | Which engineering breakthroughs will happen before 2050? | pvc509xb8w | null | 155.095212 | NO | 81a99wh1kz |
sh9edrt7u6 | false | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | {
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{
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"text": "Just in case, I want to clarify that I'm not trolling. I genuinely think that it would be very difficult to define a \"forward time machine\" that woul... | Oleg Eterevsky | DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY | public | contract | 1,719,304,385,652 | which-engineering-breakthroughs-wil | OlegEterevsky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | Which engineering breakthroughs will happen before 2050? | pvc509xb8w | null | 155.095212 | NO | 81a99wh1kz |
tmpqgzfnp8b | false | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | {
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"text": "America First ideology doesn’t want seasonally restricted produce, but opposing NATO, Ukraine, and intel agencies is a core part of the ideology. Repub... | Charlie Bauer | 1ck63pp6dh | public | contract | 1,719,304,835,388 | who-among-these-favorites-do-you-th | CharlieBauer | Who among these favorites do you think would be Trump's best VP pick for the best possible results in the election? | 3r8ndc278bj | null | null | null | null | |
4tnwnqd5z | false | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | {
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{
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{
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"text": "Long term markets are the only ones I'm interested in, so I still participate in them. But the obvious result is I simply have no mana, I basically jus... | Tumbles ♠︎ Meme Rising | lzdrs5vfvm | public | contract | 1,719,305,658,313 | do-you-bet-to-earn-mana-in-long-ter | Tumbles | Do you bet to earn mana in long term markets? | null | null | null | null | null | |
h063u90mev8 | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
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{
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},
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... | Bruno | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,719,306,099,326 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | null | null | 3.055573 | NO | xu4agxmfx4 |
j368571lsf | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
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"content": [
{
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"text": "This question may be affected by proposed changes to the survey questions, as the proposed revised survey questions move to graded responses instead on... | JRP | RIZJ1su13pxfVsDravbz | public | contract | 1,719,306,531,628 | 2030-of-workingage-adults-w-serious | parhizj | 2030: % of "working age adults w/ serious difficulty remembering, making decisions" in US Census Survey? (long covid) | null | null | null | null | null | |
jkpdoy9lmie | false | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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{
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"text": "Do the polls affect the resolution?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Charlie Bauer | 9QsfOW232lNnFj6ASRrZ | public | contract | 1,719,306,678,705 | what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes | CharlieBauer | What is worse than committing a financial crime? | cjc7qgw52s | null | 156.258098 | NO | aefea2dbb8b8 | |
x1i1ufzpn0j | false | lfAWLrbexfQpPnH51N5R4f0Rxrz2 | {
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{
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{
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"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Biodiversity Trader | x237vaxcb6 | public | contract | 1,719,306,680,334 | will-the-kouprey-bos-sauveli-become | BiodiversityTrader | Will the Kouprey (Bos sauveli) become extinct in the current century? | null | 0.930652 | 2,120.265216 | YES | null | |
y95x3g5hba | false | AgrPlc2VNxZsP0lT3LCk4E7tFza2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"marks": null,
"text": "I accidentally added two identical answers—how can I delete one?",
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}
],
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}
],
"... | Daniel Fox | IYtOfbh1ID7EBA2E0wme | public | contract | 1,719,306,891,016 | who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-fdac642f4224 | DanielFox9fff | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKr20X2_KWfUnifH6Fc3rwkAAF0ne271BX4y6NinXmR=s96-c | Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | null | null | 77.351892 | NO | f09320860f0a |
r2o4m4jr5q | false | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | {
"content": [
{
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{
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"text": "I basically agree with you, but there's a lot of differing opinions on the whole thing so it seemed like am interesting market. I like that we can bet ... | Mqrius | ibuztq9ib4 | public | contract | 1,719,307,047,839 | will-starliner-have-crew-on-it-next | Mqrius | Will Starliner have crew on it next time it's launched to orbit? | cj7x8ysnpgw | 0.75 | 437.559324 | YES | null | |
aygty14snl | false | cf8s0WtGwiXy3D57rrPWWV3qPZn2 | {
"content": [
{
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"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "I think you could have bet more 😭",
"type": "text"
}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | P | gKy8PAj9g8xG2ofY3MYw | public | contract | 1,719,307,163,748 | offical-market-for-t20-world-cup-ma | P01cc7 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIHxLTEFxzgHTcnUu5FEzH-NhHUnNijL7v89k1XtwmBhQW1VQ=s96-c | Official market for T20 Cricket World cup matches 2024 | gv8xgceh9hf | null | 1,030.583444 | YES | 342bdae28fe9 |
q8cz3hbbr7l | false | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | {
"content": [
{
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"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "There is no way to delete new submissions. Since no one has traded on them, you could rename one to another candidate or rename the option (the one you... | Lion | IYtOfbh1ID7EBA2E0wme | public | contract | 1,719,307,196,193 | who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-fdac642f4224 | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | y95x3g5hba | null | 307.715227 | YES | 247dc5bf6c62 |
7oyeg7cyqgv | false | vSGfCdrFfrVF51BlDm7rbUt7Bx52 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Maduro's rating are much worse this time compared to 2018, according to Wikipedia's summary:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type"... | Pavel Korytov | WDcNYIeRptPRqNK4VDYz | public | contract | 1,719,307,472,817 | would-nicolas-maduro-win-the-venezu | SqrtMinusOne | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI4O9fF7WJn_eb3AeE_edJDWgrhDNbeHBC12UvZ3LwyjoRlDxMyEA=s96-c | Would Nicolás Maduro Win the Venezuelan presidential election on the 28 of July 2024 | null | null | null | null | null |
2y02m302umi | false | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I hope so much he goes for a stage win and not for a boring no-one-cares-Top-10",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"... | Lion | y1YwAfr1c5O0sBHRx3ja | public | contract | 1,719,307,570,392 | who-will-finish-in-the-top-10-of-th | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | Who will finish in the top 10 of the 2024 Tour de France? | null | null | 1,062.730583 | NO | 9b43f024c5d3 |
jsucfwbbktb | false | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
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"text": "Why is Carapaz so low? He has finished on the podium in 2021. Not going to say he's the most reliable candidate or will finish for sure, but under 10% ... | Lion | y1YwAfr1c5O0sBHRx3ja | public | contract | 1,719,307,740,688 | who-will-finish-in-the-top-10-of-th | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | Who will finish in the top 10 of the 2024 Tour de France? | null | null | 1,062.730583 | NO | 9b43f024c5d3 |
wtwdkbt7nuf | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ah yes thanks",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | RemNi | 66mtREH4OpGsbJlhO4gS | public | contract | 1,719,308,878,770 | will-ukraine-sever-the-land-bridge-4915b60946fb | RemNi | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2026? | aihiuui59s8 | 0.260635 | 82.896637 | YES | null |
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