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czoyal9neqv
false
BtVtwO2ci8PRnWrtk7Xe11TAbKg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Many universities have specific policies regarding academic integrity and plagiarism. These policies typically prohibit submitting work that is not you...
Clark benson
n1gdgTcAi4hCZizBQyVi
public
contract
1,719,309,543,520
will-a-universitylevel-student-be-p-59c8540738d1
Clarkbenson
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKTAZEk2E8g3g142aOfBljdHHxZvWIXabeGYF52iftMa11inA=s96-c
Will a university-level student be punished for using ChatGPT or another LLM to write a school paper by December 31st 2023?
null
null
null
null
null
vlm16ofrt7n
false
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Would resolve NO. I added another option about him being traded to the Lakers within a few days.", "type": "text" } ], "t...
David Glidden
dhjZimMvsX17HhFyWgkO
public
contract
1,719,309,720,229
bronny-james-nba-draft-prop-bets
dglid
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
Bronny James NBA Draft prop bets
9jqpwcd0j3v
null
657.018232
NO
686a31f856b6
9b3w4wm4q0b
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How would you know?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
I2QV2GNh5HFMoE1Piek4
public
contract
1,719,310,172,051
by-april-2025-theres-an-ai-that-mil
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
By April 2025, will there be an AI that at least 1 million people trust for medical advice?
null
null
null
null
null
xwodkgzfw5
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Would Bernie have counted had he won in 2016?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
Le6BwXwXF33c9Ejg3Zq3
public
contract
1,719,310,519,151
will-the-48th-president-of-the-unit
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will the 48th President of the United States be a member of the Democratic party?
null
null
null
null
null
0byn33u76tpg
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What a terrible market.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null...
Bruno
mcnddrAWFEaddkoMFL3g
public
contract
1,719,310,620,204
is-the-biblical-depiction-of-the-ma
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Is the biblical depiction of the mark during the apocalyptic times a faithful representation of what appears to be ...
null
null
null
null
null
rhrv7xt2af
false
5AD4OV1zaDbfUoho1qkB0oGayMG2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "all hints have been pointing towards them being male. male voice actor, refers to themselves as imu-sei(male) and not imu-gu(female)", "type"...
Ma D. Monk Urouge
4hordBJ8ChO0ylCpPQGZ
public
contract
1,719,311,066,971
do-you-think-imu-is-a-male
MaDMonkUrouge
https://firebasestorage.…c38-d9a23061b2d0
Do you think Imu will be revealed as a male?
q46abnoj2e
null
null
null
null
2o77vrzoj9e
false
Tz41xTDNKjN48bgtH7Me4TYoTKQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Leonardo
oEGENePnWO0I85Rp3swT
public
contract
1,719,311,279,633
will-brazil-decriminalize-the-recre
LeonardoKr
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpog6i--u15_WA_66nvBoZhXHAdY-Bksm1f9q8CmA=s96-c
Will Brazil decriminalize the recreational use of marijuana by the end of 2026?
null
0.742783
408.327578
YES
null
n4dgwbierug
false
6M2g1pRmc2N8OjbakA2ggzuc8Wy1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is this for ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
Niplav Yushtun
pwqvjoszb6
public
contract
1,719,311,288,709
will-i-publish-overcoming-bias-anth
NiplavYushtun
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7JIxP7AIaL0K4wGj6lg8fkm3g_3Lvv4cElS396=s96-c
Will I publish "Overcoming Bias: Anthology" by Sept 1, 2024?
null
0.416474
45.908434
NO
null
rtd6gy2mvxf
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think these sorts of questions might have unexpected answers if we can get quantum computers to ", "type": "text" }, { ...
RemNi
66cWxhCKvNUZT0u3qx5V
public
contract
1,719,312,045,991
will-chess-be-solved-by-2040
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will chess be solved by 2040?
null
null
null
null
null
17w29hzu5tp
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Time to move the company to Japan", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
RemNi
fbB3WfSuBKOEdzAOuKdq
public
contract
1,719,312,579,728
will-sunoai-be-sued-by-the-riaa-bef
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will Suno.ai be sued by the RIAA before 2026?
null
null
null
null
null
kbnd54ndk3
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Popular opinion in the U.S. doesn't even consider all ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": nu...
Bruno
teVeTWowENylX3Ti0aDm
public
contract
1,719,312,678,367
will-popular-opinion-in-the-us-be-t-af7f5c32bcd4
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2040?
null
null
null
null
null
3kmf2un1fdq
false
cnpKbTPGJzWA1ncQF505049gbw43
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does the market resolve to No or N/A if a super GM doesnt play one of the latter models?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "p...
Svilen Todorov
LPxYV8cUXZOwTUe5ufrj
public
contract
1,719,312,768,918
will-a-large-language-models-beat-a
Tenoke
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0XzaC0VAAdfb0oDUJxpxvQvZ9rj2t_9fCSUgPkWg=s96-c
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
null
0.49
144.55982
YES
null
f4zwivxn995
false
TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3", "label": "UniversalFC", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
ed
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,719,312,925,397
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
3d
https://firebasestorage.…588-b9e2bc905854
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Tournament Matches
null
null
63.676398
NO
684857c472d8
cueimppv39f
false
Xodz1fmfCTco6rdsPC3hrCCMZo43
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1", "label": "OlegEterevsky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "ment...
Sodann
Riw9kjHgBRhCO5HLPxJ0
public
contract
1,719,312,958,260
when-will-video-chat-with-gpt4o-be
Sodann
https://firebasestorage.…782-83d8ac82bac0
When will video chat with GPT-4o be generally available?
vjcn9k3ysh7
null
2,440.809904
NO
f5e87292fbe2
u4ajn70tzhf
false
TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3", "label": "UniversalFC", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
ed
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,719,312,972,063
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
3d
https://firebasestorage.…588-b9e2bc905854
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Tournament Matches
null
null
63.676398
NO
684857c472d8
1fkemy76ov7
false
Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"So why do they market it as 3nm?\" Because it's \"equivalent\" to the size that would be required with 2D transistors to achieve the same performance...
ersatz
RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM
public
contract
1,719,313,004,545
will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025
ersatz
https://firebasestorage.…fae-9ad9a107b2f7
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
8cbsz9nwtkx
0.465135
46.732743
YES
null
c13u84n2pye
false
ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Xodz1fmfCTco6rdsPC3hrCCMZo43", "label": "Sodann", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Oleg Eterevsky
Riw9kjHgBRhCO5HLPxJ0
public
contract
1,719,314,501,051
when-will-video-chat-with-gpt4o-be
OlegEterevsky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c
When will video chat with GPT-4o be generally available?
vjcn9k3ysh7
null
null
null
null
ogjwt003cgg
false
XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Henri Thunberg
UGkZgy5Sr0yoHLgK4U3Y
public
contract
1,719,314,612,375
will-xi-jinping-visit-any-country-i-579f309bfcc6
HenriThunberg
https://firebasestorage.…fa3-77eaaa8c1e8b
Will Xi Jinping visit any country in the European Union during 2024?
e7sr4acrm8k
0.988689
2,393.163161
YES
null
ew3kr32h8a
false
5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bc home is only a list, seems features like boosts, reposts are deemphasized", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
ismellpillows
aa25n3t92w
public
contract
1,719,314,665,721
we-just-swapped-the-home-and-browse
ismellpillows
https://firebasestorage.…d2d-d6578fd4939a
We just swapped the Home and Browse page functionality. How do you like it?
amfsnmgw3nl
null
null
null
null
5xdjpk5vnrs
false
5UTTQmwtYJgMjFYDrWlGyGSfxgG3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"during his first presidential term\" generally means before noon on January 20, 2025. The term ends when the next person is sworn in, or he is sworn ...
River Bellamy
9XNB48DCranqKs2lx0dt
public
contract
1,719,314,706,324
will-biden-announce-mass-student-lo
RiverBellamy
https://firebasestorage.…b3d-f8fd9d611e71
Will Biden announce mass student loan forgiveness during his first presidential term?
null
null
null
null
null
y8ypc34thjq
false
lQpqzot3ijchCnSWJIMhPLKvPXS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1", "label": "OlegEterevsky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "ment...
Sjeyua
Riw9kjHgBRhCO5HLPxJ0
public
contract
1,719,315,149,177
when-will-video-chat-with-gpt4o-be
Sjeyua
https://firebasestorage.…245-a67fbbea8898
When will video chat with GPT-4o be generally available?
vjcn9k3ysh7
null
454.714879
NO
a4dba50cfc82
iewlbvw8ujt
false
cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I assume it's about first formally declaring, not just starting to fight.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }...
uair01
e0OVJQIAAHKXRofxlvI8
public
contract
1,719,315,260,583
will-israel-declare-war-on-hezbolla
uair01
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah before the end of 2024?
null
0.641024
698.835162
NO
null
tajp0ouejjp
false
iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Inside a \"forward time machine\" must pass usefully less time than outside as measured by a physical clock, not just subjective perception. It seems t...
JuJumper
DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY
public
contract
1,719,315,393,780
which-engineering-breakthroughs-wil
JuJumper
https://firebasestorage.…19a-b9b702a3816e
Which engineering breakthroughs will happen before 2050?
pvc509xb8w
null
89.041388
NO
13se6uxyn6
1suru4h0dsa
false
ib04ONx9ULTPKiAxlAiEBER20783
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
eclair4151
lx52495kkb
public
contract
1,719,315,789,291
will-metafacebook-and-apple-announc
eclair4151
https://firebasestorage.…d46-ea85d23e6623
Will Facebook (Meta) and Apple announce an AI partnership on an iPhone device by the end of November 2024?
null
0.28
669.550249
NO
null
i2fvskdjbil
false
ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thank you for the clarification. So, the only realistic device that we know of that fits this description would be a spaceship that accelerates to rela...
Oleg Eterevsky
DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY
public
contract
1,719,315,822,667
which-engineering-breakthroughs-wil
OlegEterevsky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c
Which engineering breakthroughs will happen before 2050?
pvc509xb8w
null
155.095212
NO
81a99wh1kz
yqhvp2o4ube
false
LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Seasonally restricted produce is what happens when the rest of the world goes to war and we pretend that its not our problem or when we start lobbing t...
becauseyoudo
1ck63pp6dh
public
contract
1,719,315,990,849
who-among-these-favorites-do-you-th
becauseyoudo
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbecauseyoudo%2F0GXbVCpNNX.bmp?alt=media&token=d5558412-2de1-47d7-ad36-a44a43748531
Who among these favorites do you think would be Trump's best VP pick for the best possible results in the election?
3r8ndc278bj
null
null
null
null
btb2ozpifs9
false
cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
lukres
A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3
public
contract
1,719,316,311,263
in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
lukres
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
null
0.343186
39,534.259778
NO
null
6c4b0cospal
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "unfortunately we're plateauing with gpt-4o ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3
public
contract
1,719,316,398,877
in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
btb2ozpifs9
0.343186
20,692.935689
YES
null
btojgn60ddn
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Predictor 🔥
e60FvGodRfDFCTNdVljX
public
contract
1,719,316,528,778
who-will-score-the-most-goals-at-eu
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
Who will score the most goals at EURO 2024?
wjgk72bbrid
null
2,152.680606
YES
c11nuih7qz
vhclehk4q6n
false
3os8dDHZebXXR7S0j0LgnSTXJ7L2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Can't wait for the resolution, this is my personal olympics 🙀", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "ty...
hominidan
tr9b02u0f5
public
contract
1,719,316,676,857
what-weird-unexpected-things-will-c
hominidan
https://firebasestorage.…1cd-ececcc4cf2f0
What weird unexpected things will correlate with being a conservative in my planned omnibus correlational survey?
null
null
147.050453
NO
fvsf01jurg
u67jnej739
false
8FKxAmWkaBTFFpFs05PVQgl96ki2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If this were two days before the weigh in, I'd be worried.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content"...
Paul Benjamin (Photographer)
wrb2sb6mfi
public
contract
1,719,316,923,275
will-alex-pereira-make-weight-for-u
PaulBenjaminPhotographer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1AhhJ_quHzrZOxShvfbdjIYp4YKf7CSu9fvZ2xr3lOHIc=s96-c
Will Alex Pereira make weight for UFC303?
null
0.790607
125.975652
YES
null
oal9cok555
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0 and 1 are not valid values for priors.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, ...
Bruno
eF3bR2ZBZLT6EV14FELy
public
contract
1,719,316,965,978
what-is-the-best-definition-of-evid
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
What is the best definition of evidence? (add your own)
0svx3kwozjxd
null
3.644809
YES
bb0890306b4f
p15uh7eteu
false
yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves yes for Florida ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Paper Boy
cIJUylRZlYPdUFK3x8Bu
public
contract
1,719,317,269,757
which-team-will-win-the-2024-nhl-st
PaperBoy
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c
Which team will win the 2024 NHL Stanley Cup Final? (new question format)
null
null
2,249.592813
YES
5f88f5f99784
hrcfyzwxk7c
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It could still be the only one existing but fail to meet the membership criteria you set in other options.", "type": "text" } ]...
Bruno
2ba41c5wd9
public
contract
1,719,317,312,755
united-nations-will-it-stand-by-204
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
United nations - will it stand by 2040?
null
null
null
null
null
fp356aqhloo
false
M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Team ends group stage with a clean sheet can be resolved to Yes since Spain did not lose a goal ", "type": "text" } ], "t...
Łukasz Bartoszcze
UQIVR5EPgi2JSmHoWB5C
public
contract
1,719,317,344,217
uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop
ukaszBartoszcze
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c
UEFA Euro Cup 2024 Tournament Prop Bets ⚽ LIVE!
null
null
217.653508
NO
6j043vvy1r
z0ymvaldpu
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "mighty jolt to the liberals immune system", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Blomfilter
l9WmjlsbIIa8tyhVICTk
public
contract
1,719,318,133,476
will-canadas-liberal-party-win-the
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Will Canada's Liberal Party win the June 24th federal by-election for Toronto-St. Paul's?
null
0.035896
-0
NO
null
ir1rcoe4ku
false
64EqMhaqqUUntAtHS6W6DmMgMQf1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Real impact of AI in peoples life today is limited. Most people never heard of scaling laws, but they heard of \"hallucinations\". So on top of the unk...
Rick Radewagen
YUkqI0EPhMoxjferJU2d
public
contract
1,719,318,398,127
by-2025-will-most-welleducated-peop
RickRadewagen
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLIxs8yH_S_DBwI7l_1ZYWP8hC5jqCq_N9rm0JPMG5h-RcjTA=s96-c
By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?
vj35jvoilv
0.13
228.767021
NO
null
ofaqme4rpb
false
n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "label": "Predictor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
Universal FC ⚽
e60FvGodRfDFCTNdVljX
public
contract
1,719,319,116,161
who-will-score-the-most-goals-at-eu
UniversalFC
https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1
Who will score the most goals at EURO 2024?
wjgk72bbrid
null
1,484.714163
NO
c11nuih7qz
tmdfihkgoyi
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3", "label": "UniversalFC", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Predictor 🔥
e60FvGodRfDFCTNdVljX
public
contract
1,719,319,271,814
who-will-score-the-most-goals-at-eu
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
Who will score the most goals at EURO 2024?
wjgk72bbrid
null
2,152.680606
YES
c11nuih7qz
dd1wgrutosm
false
TjvzR8cg5cVoLshGhhe4kwxnJEH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Clock's ticking, and Biden has remained steadily on his feet thus far. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
Symmetry
I6fNXcBlAdffS8AQ7dJv
public
contract
1,719,319,278,085
will-joe-biden-have-fallen-and-mill
Symmetry
https://firebasestorage.…17b-be701d8b2f3a
Will Joe Biden have fallen and millions died EoY 2024?
jLkcJ7UeiHxF2naquTgN
0.839373
67.397191
YES
null
oquytbw2zz
false
TjvzR8cg5cVoLshGhhe4kwxnJEH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Half the year has come and gone and I see no indications of midjourney being in trouble. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "...
Symmetry
pl15tK3D4rPyoGPOp5U1
public
contract
1,719,319,424,466
is-midjourney-in-trouble
Symmetry
https://firebasestorage.…17b-be701d8b2f3a
Is Midjourney in Trouble?
null
null
null
null
null
4iwrtsly6xq
false
1g8P6pHRRLg4kaRxAMKyCCXn2mb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You can have some evidence for a proposition and nevertheless not know the proposition. Smith clearly has evidence for his belief, despite the fact tha...
NBAP
eF3bR2ZBZLT6EV14FELy
public
contract
1,719,319,441,760
what-is-the-best-definition-of-evid
NBAP
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNBAP%2FqpSlMKH-74.57?alt=media&token=115d6799-daaf-47c9-8a52-f318b0a9688e
What is the best definition of evidence? (add your own)
6niwyrd3zt7
null
32.244419
YES
5f63ff8035a0
rle51lyzr9a
false
TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Do you suggest \"It remains existing, but less than 60% of the recognized countries are members and/or representative of less tham 60% of worldwide pop...
ed
2ba41c5wd9
public
contract
1,719,319,506,985
united-nations-will-it-stand-by-204
3d
https://firebasestorage.…588-b9e2bc905854
United nations - will it stand by 2040?
hrcfyzwxk7c
null
18.976112
YES
do9bpvx0l1
dfchv856bso
false
n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The market says \"WHO\" will score the most goals. It needs to be a person. I am not arguing about this any longer. One more instance of this and I wil...
Universal FC ⚽
e60FvGodRfDFCTNdVljX
public
contract
1,719,319,510,213
who-will-score-the-most-goals-at-eu
UniversalFC
https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1
Who will score the most goals at EURO 2024?
wjgk72bbrid
null
1,484.714163
NO
c11nuih7qz
zqenbqkks4m
false
HWvpAjIXKXd3ky7xqe87yIus3WG3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This one might deserve some renewed attention ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Flekkie
xTUTqqApGz0gZitCwUCb
public
contract
1,719,319,600,086
will-there-be-a-dam-collapse-in-the
Flekkie
https://firebasestorage.…74d-301fa0fe0194
Will there be a dam collapse in the US before the end of 2025 with a fatality rate of 10 or more?
null
0.18
17.251994
NO
null
ea4memmxn4r
false
n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1", "label": "3d", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Universal FC ⚽
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,719,319,721,047
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
UniversalFC
https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Tournament Matches
u4ajn70tzhf
null
6,708.104696
NO
0daf987efcdf
9jp0x8j9joc
false
DfJm6cMNVVhsbJL5FKcSG9z4Nrv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "label": "MP", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ciuccio
q1ZC9BFqRjfv6lUpIJGO
public
contract
1,719,319,796,062
will-adam-neumann-buy-wework-out-of
Ciuccio
https://firebasestorage.…8f2-d58b540ae824
Will Adam Neumann buy WeWork out of bankruptcy?
m53stdudiz8
0.027078
2,303.427748
NO
null
yfqrwygj548
false
TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yeah, i hope that they still want to win, despite this, i also bet on france : ) ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragrap...
ed
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,719,320,095,864
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
3d
https://firebasestorage.…588-b9e2bc905854
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Tournament Matches
u4ajn70tzhf
null
63.676398
NO
684857c472d8
unv6aobjt4e
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cf8s0WtGwiXy3D57rrPWWV3qPZn2", "label": "P01cc7", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
The Official
gKy8PAj9g8xG2ofY3MYw
public
contract
1,719,320,171,945
offical-market-for-t20-world-cup-ma
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
Official market for T20 Cricket World cup matches 2024
null
null
7,859.713538
YES
j1q3qikzh8
69tiw8kc1hn
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Samples safely returned ~5am UTC June 25th (i.e. within the planned 53 days (I believe))", "type": "text" } ], "type": "p...
Nat
bfCNcVNESD0nqNjD8qpy
public
contract
1,719,320,326,179
will-cnsas-change-6-successfully-re
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
Will CNSA's Chang'e-6 successfully return samples from the far side of the Moon within the planned 53 days?
null
0.982787
-0
NO
null
pb3mvfl9tu
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Nat
9DtFmW4IdsQOWu4Vc370
public
contract
1,719,320,380,945
will-cnsas-change-6-mission-success-bb4982b56723
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
Will CNSA's Chang'e 6 mission successfully return a sample from the moon?
null
0.977169
59.191597
YES
null
c0fllrdvrb
false
gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Traveel
v0hzy0bsaz
public
contract
1,719,320,517,401
daily-coinflip-70zjvd8pgl
Traveel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c
Daily coinflip
null
0.517386
2,094.319822
YES
null
gviqbym212j
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
v0hzy0bsaz
public
contract
1,719,320,525,140
daily-coinflip-70zjvd8pgl
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Daily coinflip
null
null
null
null
null
mqcmgw1qnz
false
mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Eh, I'd say it's still negative EV overall, for me. Hard to judge such minuscule quantities accurately though - an individual vote (especially in a rel...
Andrew Hartman
uhhe66IN7ZeNqCuG0zh3
public
contract
1,719,320,532,463
if-elected-will-trump-commute-the-p
AndrewHartman
https://firebasestorage.…a82-24c9bd44e039
If elected, will Trump commute the prison sentence of Ross Ulbricht?
y21ojqk21q
0.432099
442.572677
NO
null
sp350sk75h
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
v0hzy0bsaz
public
contract
1,719,320,586,088
daily-coinflip-70zjvd8pgl
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Daily coinflip
null
null
null
null
null
og3wv1aasbm
false
IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Damn never expected dragon stocks to crash", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Andrew
2IERKllChO1q9U0M7VsU
public
contract
1,719,320,671,572
dragon-stock
AndrewCrosse
https://firebasestorage.…f22-3dec558fe261
Dragon Stock
null
0.490514
661.69362
YES
null
0r72eonjnxb
false
s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3", "label": "UniversalFC", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Quantum Gambler
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,719,320,901,509
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
Mirek
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Tournament Matches
u4ajn70tzhf
null
1,010.872945
YES
7ce12526f16c
7z9gir8ivsg
false
mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm unsure if this would be far enough out to offer much power in detecting the change? I mean, if you'd only expect something like a 5% mortality rate...
Andrew Hartman
mRBNcO0A76OgW34mcR2c
public
contract
1,719,321,073,384
will-semaglutide-improve-lifespan-w
AndrewHartman
https://firebasestorage.…a82-24c9bd44e039
Before 2033, will semaglutide be shown to improve lifespan, when prescribed to overweight people?
null
null
null
null
null
sfrm3rlfcxo
false
HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is there some reason why people are betting against its existence? 2040 isn't that far away. ", "type": "text" } ], "type...
Timothy Bandors
2ba41c5wd9
public
contract
1,719,321,101,274
united-nations-will-it-stand-by-204
TimothyBandors
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c
United nations - will it stand by 2040?
null
null
87.139072
YES
exumqasmm3
s8wi5genx5d
false
TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Because even now it does not show sense for priorities and it does not abide to its rules .... ", "type": "text" } ], "ty...
ed
2ba41c5wd9
public
contract
1,719,321,160,197
united-nations-will-it-stand-by-204
3d
https://firebasestorage.…588-b9e2bc905854
United nations - will it stand by 2040?
sfrm3rlfcxo
null
18.976112
YES
do9bpvx0l1
hzwjdifdw7q
false
jfaeGZZWDZaaTNyPhSmQr1LFt112
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yes, in a non-swing state your vote really makes no difference and is about as important as responding to a Manifold poll. (*Regarding the Presidency. ...
Maxim Lott
uhhe66IN7ZeNqCuG0zh3
public
contract
1,719,321,202,195
if-elected-will-trump-commute-the-p
MaximLott
https://firebasestorage.…a8b-f672dacd4cd4
If elected, will Trump commute the prison sentence of Ross Ulbricht?
y21ojqk21q
null
null
null
null
r3149oio8p
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm OOM ;)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
2ba41c5wd9
public
contract
1,719,321,327,999
united-nations-will-it-stand-by-204
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
United nations - will it stand by 2040?
hrcfyzwxk7c
null
null
null
null
nejdc3uqgjf
false
IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Andrew
ul7TYqiZgOIU3l5jpjWp
public
contract
1,719,321,458,811
who-will-be-the-final-villain-in-on
AndrewCrosse
https://firebasestorage.…f22-3dec558fe261
Who will be the final villain in one piece
null
null
null
null
null
3yt4gljyl8y
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just to check, how does this resolve in the unlikely event that Chang'e 8 is renamed, cancelled, or its scope significantly changed (such as to not inc...
Nat
GFre6rAVc0lwrcEmYQAu
public
contract
1,719,321,495,098
will-cnsas-change-8-mission-success
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
Will CNSA's Chang'e 8 mission successfully land on the moon?
null
null
null
null
null
ibvpyy4un7q
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I \"revived\" this market by unresolving the USA vs Canada answer and resolving it again. The other 2 options should be active for trading now I hope",...
Genzy
gKy8PAj9g8xG2ofY3MYw
public
contract
1,719,321,669,505
offical-market-for-t20-world-cup-ma
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
Official market for T20 Cricket World cup matches 2024
unv6aobjt4e
null
null
null
null
t94pyx2myk
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Let me know if there's any updates to this, or if it should be reopened!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
Genzy
3qSSqkywYBNh7RO14JUq
public
contract
1,719,321,737,501
will-vegapunk-reveal-the-truth-abou
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
Will Vegapunk reveal the truth about the Void Century?
null
null
null
null
null
ekxgy5muhlf
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Rana G
i32ddLzkBWaCpO7Pv4d1
public
contract
1,719,321,907,855
in-what-career-path-will-i-be-in-ju
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
In what career path will @RanaG be in June 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
c3pkpfont9
false
12ztXVGfibSZaCDnGndN40PKUIO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I opened this market to bet on future chip advances: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": nul...
Paul
RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM
public
contract
1,719,321,972,006
will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025
Paul
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GivsAmgOWywNYNzHSwlvq95nQAGKHiFjTR4-W0NRg=s96-c
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
8cbsz9nwtkx
0.444962
261.522273
NO
null
uprh2wu08c
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Daniel
fGylrlMOE85dW2oF1br3
public
contract
1,719,322,023,014
will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-cd14f41c8800
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
Will any of the videos uploaded to Joe Rogan's YouTube channel in Jun 2024 surpass 4M views?
null
0.989945
1,488.797663
YES
null
4i1kb9tlp5l
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Daniel
Lguoo1rheCJm0nd4lrzq
public
contract
1,719,322,099,481
will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-610d9ac8f830
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
Will any of the videos uploaded to Joe Rogan's YouTube channel in Jun 2024 surpass 2M views?
o0kyu349djs
0.99
1,960.784648
YES
null
mfminuonct
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Daniel
fGylrlMOE85dW2oF1br3
public
contract
1,719,322,109,122
will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-cd14f41c8800
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
Will any of the videos uploaded to Joe Rogan's YouTube channel in Jun 2024 surpass 4M views?
uprh2wu08c
0.989945
1,488.797663
YES
null
emgqmqsu1rh
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves YES", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "te...
Daniel
CPIQtlA4sUHorqVU84X1
public
contract
1,719,322,194,712
will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-3f425077845f
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
Will any of the videos uploaded to Lex Fridman's YouTube channel in Jun 2024 surpass 300k views?
null
0.99
1,296.652256
YES
null
ei61c2i5yh7
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves YES", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "te...
Daniel
AcY5SS1zoySXxuM0ATML
public
contract
1,719,322,210,496
will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-a4372b30cb6b
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
Will any of the videos uploaded to Lex Fridman's YouTube channel in Jun 2024 surpass 500k views?
null
0.99
1,506.100165
YES
null
qntwpiyqrrq
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves YES", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "te...
Daniel
6tUp9IXzArYdYlLtHX7D
public
contract
1,719,322,265,286
will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-f06e1c01a576
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
Will any of the videos uploaded to Lex Fridman's YouTube channel in Jun 2024 surpass 1M views?
null
0.99
1,533.389887
YES
null
sbrsoao3fp9
false
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think EF and Carapaz himself would prefer to go for stages, so he will let himself drop in the classification around the second week so that the pelo...
JAAM
y1YwAfr1c5O0sBHRx3ja
public
contract
1,719,322,319,576
who-will-finish-in-the-top-10-of-th
egroj
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
Who will finish in the top 10 of the 2024 Tour de France?
jsucfwbbktb
null
605.176259
YES
9b43f024c5d3
ra17jw10o1
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2", "label": "stardust2", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
Daniel
v4tUL0OuX82UwiA9WwU6
public
contract
1,719,322,365,686
will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-852856944e63
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
Will any of the videos uploaded to Mr Beast's YouTube channel in Jun 2024 surpass 150M views?
null
null
null
null
null
5zkewhfky2l
false
s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe I am colorblind, I am not seeing it yet! Booking appointment for eye man and will check back again tomorrow.", "type": "text" }...
Quantum Gambler
yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj
public
contract
1,719,322,469,848
manifold-leadership-approval-rating
Mirek
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055
👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
lbw3ibmsu6f
0.402424
877.332408
YES
null
9c06rmp9mwr
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "nominations are out: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
Soli ꩜
OEJEcZeKa2TJagkftlsV
public
contract
1,719,322,591,394
which-board-game-will-win-spiel-des
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Which board game will win "Spiel des Jahres" 2024?
null
null
27.048452
YES
b96fdaddd073
f8t5pp0e4a
false
cf8s0WtGwiXy3D57rrPWWV3qPZn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thank you very much, I think it was my fault I think I set the date too forward", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph"...
P
gKy8PAj9g8xG2ofY3MYw
public
contract
1,719,323,115,147
offical-market-for-t20-world-cup-ma
P01cc7
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIHxLTEFxzgHTcnUu5FEzH-NhHUnNijL7v89k1XtwmBhQW1VQ=s96-c
Official market for T20 Cricket World cup matches 2024
unv6aobjt4e
null
1,030.583444
YES
342bdae28fe9
gjtf9u1vpas
false
9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The problem is not the organization but the political will. If this is lacking, there will be neither a reform of the un nor a successor organization. ...
Jan
2ba41c5wd9
public
contract
1,719,323,148,809
united-nations-will-it-stand-by-204
Jan53274
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c
United nations - will it stand by 2040?
sfrm3rlfcxo
null
374.948337
NO
do9bpvx0l1
yv4m006syl9
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does this resolve 50% each if they tie?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Savior of Plant
9k3btdim89
public
contract
1,719,323,213,680
who-will-win-the-france-vs-poland-e
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Who will win the France vs Poland Euro Match
null
null
488.900721
NO
p37yghatup
458cct5lz5i
false
9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1", "label": "3d", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Jan
2ba41c5wd9
public
contract
1,719,323,333,286
united-nations-will-it-stand-by-204
Jan53274
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c
United nations - will it stand by 2040?
null
null
374.948337
NO
do9bpvx0l1
r6nqzvvga79
false
HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Okay so your reason for betting no is stupid IMHO, I expect it's \"power\" to grow weaker but I can't see the world switching to some new coalition in ...
Timothy Bandors
2ba41c5wd9
public
contract
1,719,323,354,416
united-nations-will-it-stand-by-204
TimothyBandors
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c
United nations - will it stand by 2040?
sfrm3rlfcxo
null
87.139072
YES
exumqasmm3
rqhn5s2qye
false
imE3dYtl57flbp54JLX6cfvKwR63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "HW8FLxBmGZNRMLejKnomKho1k563", "label": "alexkropivny", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Adam B
OiJ9KnW29ImsmlHrg4sO
public
contract
1,719,323,682,084
is-the-promethean-virus-in-large-la
jellyberg
https://firebasestorage.…cf0-e6eaf8907857
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
r2eyut8yw8
null
null
null
null
guyqswhibso
false
dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Alex B. Goode
8XPzCHsk9XFam4luGrIP
public
contract
1,719,323,765,746
in-what-years-will-the-eiu-rate-the
AlexbGoode
https://firebasestorage.…43d-e9f8224e3fb7
In what years will the EIU rate the U.S. as a full democracy?
null
null
105.619768
NO
b3a5c7efb57c
xaw9owngg3p
false
dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I earned 0.5 cents for looking at Wikipedia. Post-pivot liquidity is still really bad :(", "type": "text" } ], "type": "p...
Alex B. Goode
8XPzCHsk9XFam4luGrIP
public
contract
1,719,323,871,501
in-what-years-will-the-eiu-rate-the
AlexbGoode
https://firebasestorage.…43d-e9f8224e3fb7
In what years will the EIU rate the U.S. as a full democracy?
guyqswhibso
null
105.619768
NO
b3a5c7efb57c
d2kt229ej7j
false
GzFn7mDYAoO0ke6vpLVgmPr2im02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "can you please provide more details on the resolution criteria. If Maduro claims victory, could this still resolve NO? Will you resolve according to th...
Anto
WDcNYIeRptPRqNK4VDYz
public
contract
1,719,324,123,325
would-nicolas-maduro-win-the-venezu
Anto
https://firebasestorage.…0ad-2b81b12ba6eb
Would Nicolás Maduro Win the Venezuelan presidential election on the 28 of July 2024
null
0.806184
3,183.592245
NO
null
gbq14plrxkq
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2", "label": "Daniel_MC", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
Lion
6VwJ6xRRYSfenLQyFTzf
public
contract
1,719,324,234,864
what-topics-or-who-will-elon-musk-t-0a7be0e1f6ef
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before July 4th? [ADD YOUR OWN]
null
null
0
YES
8e9d07a81f93
bbnqu5k037j
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thanks ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Daniel
6VwJ6xRRYSfenLQyFTzf
public
contract
1,719,324,293,913
what-topics-or-who-will-elon-musk-t-0a7be0e1f6ef
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before July 4th? [ADD YOUR OWN]
gbq14plrxkq
null
583.552859
YES
83dfb8f9cd61
qe6g3ybcy58
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think he can do both. Wouldn't be the first one to get a Top10 with that strategy.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "parag...
Lion
y1YwAfr1c5O0sBHRx3ja
public
contract
1,719,324,394,678
who-will-finish-in-the-top-10-of-th
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
Who will finish in the top 10 of the 2024 Tour de France?
jsucfwbbktb
null
1,712.305864
NO
0642410a6ae1
b387ty7lowc
false
yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "label": "SirCryptomind", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "ment...
Paper Boy
cIJUylRZlYPdUFK3x8Bu
public
contract
1,719,324,450,525
which-team-will-win-the-2024-nhl-st
PaperBoy
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c
Which team will win the 2024 NHL Stanley Cup Final? (new question format)
null
null
2,249.592813
YES
5f88f5f99784
wt9mvy1m4h
false
MAAD1J6G9lXzi01YGIiKAvh8KAN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Dustin
cIJUylRZlYPdUFK3x8Bu
public
contract
1,719,324,536,830
which-team-will-win-the-2024-nhl-st
Dustin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhOa--qvfxnXT1JfaOu1QgWzLbV_gIUyiQ7sh4hoQ=s96-c
Which team will win the 2024 NHL Stanley Cup Final? (new question format)
null
null
1,784.825399
YES
ba8329742d28
iodhsrzbtzo
false
8K7OokTvKUWJ8OjAucDKG90Yi4H2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Dang, I just thought of a good one but I’m too late “Prefer sitting next to a conversation partner rather than across from them” which relates to a cor...
GooGhoul
tr9b02u0f5
public
contract
1,719,324,867,604
what-weird-unexpected-things-will-c
GooGhoul
https://firebasestorage.…e8f-79dd2d8c953b
What weird unexpected things will correlate with being a conservative in my planned omnibus correlational survey?
null
null
43.390515
NO
4v9nv0nncw
f5uzjsvnulo
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Forgot there were 4 games today, enjoy that freebie! 4 goals should be pretty much guaranteed.", "type": "text" } ], "typ...
The Official
UQIVR5EPgi2JSmHoWB5C
public
contract
1,719,324,896,607
uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
UEFA Euro Cup 2024 Tournament Prop Bets ⚽ LIVE!
null
null
1,799.497005
NO
94dbi9xjvs
lwjpo758o9
false
XeQf3ygmrGM1MxdsE3JSlmq8vL42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63", "label": "0xSMW", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Jacy
hHxLuRZUwD1UaXPpX0Ka
public
contract
1,719,325,294,726
on-june-30-2024-who-will-have-the-t
Jacy
https://firebasestorage.…73f-503ef6cf6c81
On June 30 2024, who will have the top ranking model on the LMSYS ELO board?
null
null
234.089102
NO
e39a5554ddc4
m14kp7hhut
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "At 13:07:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text"...
Nat
DiEBi4HjdTtrnoBenEFH
public
contract
1,719,325,371,096
will-spacex-build-a-flame-trench-fo
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
Will SpaceX build a flame trench for Starship before 2026?
null
0.548714
405.399859
YES
null
e9f74moz798
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why would Biden say, \"my predecessor\" when his predecessor is on the stage with him? This isn't the State of the Union, there's no taboo against ment...
Plasma Ballin'
cscjHo7n8eHj3WGH3fr3
public
contract
1,719,325,948,012
prop-bets-on-trumpbiden-debate-1
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Trump & Biden June 27th Debate Prop Bets (Add your own)
null
null
118.596178
NO
pnxh0uesdy
ut72u0ocygb
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Out of 300+lb?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rana G
ukksz6xkhg
public
contract
1,719,325,997,348
will-i-lose-20-lbs-after-taking-sem
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Will I lose 20+ lbs after taking semaglutide for 3 months?
z30r37tmfca
0.392041
288.406036
NO
null
vp74pepgeuc
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Have we ever even heard him say Trump or is it always he who shall not be named?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph...
Predictor 🔥
cscjHo7n8eHj3WGH3fr3
public
contract
1,719,326,052,119
prop-bets-on-trumpbiden-debate-1
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
Trump & Biden June 27th Debate Prop Bets (Add your own)
e9f74moz798
null
305.814616
NO
71558b548490
mzjvewe6xra
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Daniel
eXZ8R8jqJrJkhIzIYVt6
public
contract
1,719,326,137,372
on-the-monday-before-the-election-w-b4691fe4eae2
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
On the Monday before the election, what probability of victory Manifold will think Joe Biden has?
null
null
null
null
null