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u2ccakwq0dk
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2", "label": "SteveSokolowski", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "me...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
Q0D4T61MgUQvsDGLPFVz
public
contract
1,719,397,160,550
what-will-happen-in-july-2024-add-r
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
🌭What will happen in July 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
68.688814
NO
502608f75f70
tdxwuvz1cil
false
ed0TYP2NEbWZ3K9oeW2DarokXOy1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves yes ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "HhZi7R3RRHWeS5tRvomftREwRWf2", "label...
Captain Jack Sparrow
iu9VlpzoSK4zU5GTeX8h
public
contract
1,719,397,362,946
will-kenya-invade-haiti-by-2025
diadematus
https://firebasestorage.…1fb-6f1bd0a31520
Will Kenyan troops be in Haiti by 2025?
null
0.914731
1,918.706244
YES
null
aeo2xowsuow
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does a vibrator count as a basic robot?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
v1rg6i4i2k
public
contract
1,719,397,376,501
will-women-will-be-having-more-sex
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will women will be having more sex with robots than men by 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
twyp5vwmp2i
false
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It was \"final chapter\" in Aug2023, now it's \"near the end\". There's still a subtle difference.", "type": "text" } ], ...
Stochastic Cockatoo
1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM
public
contract
1,719,397,427,511
will-jimmy-carter-become-a-centenar
StochasticParrot
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?
null
0.65
87.284806
NO
null
3c5ra2lefal
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is this a placeholder market?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
tlt1b31a08
public
contract
1,719,397,439,249
will-aella-and-jimmy-carter-have-se
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Hi
null
null
null
null
null
4rxwi5x8zfw
false
TD2B82c9QsehM8kBCZGCRCo63Au1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Lasse Rasinen
YJXMNLHLstFe52iIF6yg
public
contract
1,719,397,449,647
who-will-be-the-next-nato-general-s-3900b547bf82
LasseRasinen
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtf10K1zU-KWBKnWHEOj6m9-Qw4wicOY1x1XQl34hRMRgSE=s96-c
Who will be the next NATO general secretary?
null
null
4,632.432629
YES
4f215f407a30
ulnd9kdooud
false
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Despite not having direct information about Carter's condition, Teno shared her insights on his possible health trajectory. ", "type": "tex...
Stochastic Cockatoo
1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM
public
contract
1,719,397,488,044
will-jimmy-carter-become-a-centenar
StochasticParrot
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?
pb3j3wn223p
0.65
87.284806
NO
null
i7y6zaor5p
false
TD2B82c9QsehM8kBCZGCRCo63Au1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Lasse Rasinen
aulPr98FjLbWqRB7VKrz
public
contract
1,719,397,499,095
will-soon-to-be-former-dutch-pm-mar
LasseRasinen
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtf10K1zU-KWBKnWHEOj6m9-Qw4wicOY1x1XQl34hRMRgSE=s96-c
Will (soon to be former) Dutch PM Mark Rutte be the next secretary general of NATO?
null
0.987954
7,156.908793
YES
null
9k3orpx3wpj
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What are the resolution criteria?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
73muasxcc9
public
contract
1,719,397,735,706
what-will-be-the-primary-cause-of-a
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
pbga1jspmg
false
T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Time to resolve ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The Wabi Sabi
Wzx1nCc92Hkv5bXY9uxM
public
contract
1,719,397,769,969
who-will-be-elected-as-the-next-nat
TheWabiSabi
https://firebasestorage.…2ec-cedfd2c3f9b5
Who will be elected as the next NATO Secretary General?
null
null
3,247.15373
YES
fcb102777fb5
lzkvccglnv
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Chris Billington
FKQHvVxMsZSlikadnMLH
public
contract
1,719,399,105,022
will-julian-assange-return-to-austr
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
Will Julian Assange return to Australia before 2026?
null
0.99
90.645414
NO
null
oyxe1jgt8ka
false
fcOt7DAYnpPABvhWaS7ozJRQBZN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Update: given that Bownan has lost the primary I am resolving this market today with a NO. It is not feasible that he will win the election.", ...
Lee Bressler
xrPVChz7FTFkh6nzsKGA
public
contract
1,719,399,355,034
will-jamaal-bowman-be-reelected-to
LeeBressler
https://firebasestorage.…2c8-59c93bb93802
Will Jamaal Bowman be re-elected to Congress this year?
null
0.009858
1,927.885368
NO
null
l3pk9z117un
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Gotta do another one with photos of men instead", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
pZcKLG6m17nlKqxoMMNR
public
contract
1,719,399,367,938
are-almost-all-women-into-women-wil
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)
BXh5UuhLEIYY5R9vBYrY
0.43808
17.317341
NO
null
sf9zmhdteaf
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Gaz Downright
JEdvrURr0C5ywLDZSyqJ
public
contract
1,719,399,585,603
will-hungary-stall-the-election-of
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Will Hungary stall the transition to Mark Rutte as NATO secretary-general beyond October 1st?
null
0.01
602.119729
NO
null
t2mdc7exrx
false
B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I have been increasing my reps at lower weight levels the past few weeks. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, ...
Elliot Davies
ZFoP4zq9qSOjsuOtkacm
public
contract
1,719,399,611,080
will-i-bench-70kg-and-squat-100kg-b
ElliotDavies
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c
Will I bench 70kg and squat 100kg by EOY 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
goxq336ipat
false
Tz41xTDNKjN48bgtH7Me4TYoTKQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Now?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Leonardo
1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM
public
contract
1,719,399,616,778
will-jimmy-carter-become-a-centenar
LeonardoKr
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpog6i--u15_WA_66nvBoZhXHAdY-Bksm1f9q8CmA=s96-c
Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?
twyp5vwmp2i
0.65
21,998.094989
YES
null
vyo042sl64o
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves YES, Claude 3.5 ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
Muga Sofer
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
public
contract
1,719,399,719,079
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
224.487437
YES
0ec5a24745d8
yaalkj06v2
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": "TV gif. Sarah Michelle Gellar as Buffy in Buffy The Vampire Slayer looks over at someone with tearful eyes and a sad frown. She nods her head, then covers her eyes with a tissue that’s in her hand, and sobs into it.", "contractIds": null, "deleteCa...
RemNi
FKQHvVxMsZSlikadnMLH
public
contract
1,719,399,779,877
will-julian-assange-return-to-austr
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will Julian Assange return to Australia before 2026?
null
0.99
0
YES
null
t9rsfsobyk
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
RemNi
wulaH1o3La0gtTEsKJ8R
public
contract
1,719,400,299,729
will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-5f798d3b2ace
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
054toci0ue8q
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "some of them are pretty good and it's looking like we're getting closer to a YES resolution of this question given these capabilities (think this is so...
RemNi
wulaH1o3La0gtTEsKJ8R
public
contract
1,719,400,431,393
will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-5f798d3b2ace
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2025?
t9rsfsobyk
null
null
null
null
j0yg99oxwe
false
91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We have 13 holders for No and 0 for Yes. Given that this is a poll based resolution, that gives us a pretty big hint about which way this will go.", ...
PhilosophyBear
5l0bx922jo
public
contract
1,719,400,460,476
would-manifold-users-have-a-negativ
PhilosophyBear
https://firebasestorage.…5e9-4830e79d2cee
Would Manifold users have a negative opinion of their President if they use performance enhancing drugs before a debate?
null
0.158002
2,126.22815
NO
null
xurjap81qub
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There are plenty of sources stating that Rutte will take office on October 2:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, ...
Bruno
JEdvrURr0C5ywLDZSyqJ
public
contract
1,719,400,599,270
will-hungary-stall-the-election-of
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will Hungary stall the transition to Mark Rutte as NATO secretary-general beyond October 1st?
null
0.01
630.387899
YES
null
6ejz1h2oii7
false
8FKxAmWkaBTFFpFs05PVQgl96ki2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm not sure the famous BN is the ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks...
Paul Benjamin (Photographer)
IYtOfbh1ID7EBA2E0wme
public
contract
1,719,401,095,790
who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-fdac642f4224
PaulBenjaminPhotographer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1AhhJ_quHzrZOxShvfbdjIYp4YKf7CSu9fvZ2xr3lOHIc=s96-c
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
4m1muxf2i4p
null
null
null
null
yjox8njj86
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What if it is a research reactor that's connected to something like a datacenter?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragrap...
RemNi
bf67l37i5m
public
contract
1,719,401,271,066
will-a-thorium-based-nuclear-reacto
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will a thorium based nuclear reactor be in service for energy in the US before 2050?
null
null
null
null
null
zist3l9x4ia
false
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It’s draft day!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
David Glidden
dhjZimMvsX17HhFyWgkO
public
contract
1,719,401,517,835
bronny-james-nba-draft-prop-bets
dglid
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
Bronny James NBA Draft prop bets
null
null
657.018232
NO
686a31f856b6
b2r2axhg95d
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "High probability that this resolves as YES given the outcome of the FLOW trial:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null...
RemNi
mRBNcO0A76OgW34mcR2c
public
contract
1,719,401,573,179
will-semaglutide-improve-lifespan-w
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Before 2033, will semaglutide be shown to improve lifespan, when prescribed to overweight people?
null
0.895638
33.282672
YES
null
7ces9tcvo8r
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "would", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,401,789,225
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
null
null
3.055573
NO
xu4agxmfx4
crh3785scl9
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves yesn't", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
1sfbjcTu6zgqjCVjqWA2
public
contract
1,719,401,889,751
will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?
dp03tlo1lo
0.039837
22.36357
YES
null
5tv6ay9tfp9
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I mean, that's more a \"knows linguistics\" vs \"doesn't know linguistics\" divide", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragra...
Bruno
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,402,049,195
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
ghdlir5jkyw
null
3.055573
NO
xu4agxmfx4
6oqsd023bqg
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "im ok with a 50% resolution", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
1sfbjcTu6zgqjCVjqWA2
public
contract
1,719,402,388,300
will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?
dp03tlo1lo
0.039837
394,872.553622
YES
null
v9q6251vae
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "With an extra $10 billion over 10 years I’m pretty sure we’d get to 5 or ...
Bruno
i6peb3y6s2
public
contract
1,719,402,776,677
will-at-least-3-of-the-10-technolog
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will at least 3 of the 10 Technologies that Won't Exist in 5 Years, exist in 5 years?
null
null
null
null
null
ecdwgo7lbyv
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Polymarket is shockingly wrong sometimes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Savior of Plant
gffoEWwKUc5NIG4cYgZH
public
contract
1,719,402,787,267
will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Will Trump and Biden shake hands at the first debate in June?
pyu527scenf
0.457695
2.374905
YES
null
9kbpupedsuu
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "15 to go. 5 England fans arrested yesterday and 9 Serbia fans.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "ty...
Predictor 🔥
UQIVR5EPgi2JSmHoWB5C
public
contract
1,719,402,853,996
uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
UEFA Euro Cup 2024 Tournament Prop Bets ⚽ LIVE!
lyw321e881p
null
982.92708
YES
vc2r6tc9t8
kika6e30nm
false
rubvHZCzGxclApIgRyZahOlCMQj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yes, the point would precisely be how to deal with those entities and people who are in a endless cash accumulation scheme, and are often captured into...
Guillaume
q337czcgd1
public
contract
1,719,403,302,128
will-we-see-the-rise-of-a-post-scar
Guillaume
https://firebasestorage.…770-f9b8b9faa3cc
Will we see the rise of a post scarcity economic summit before 2030 ?
g8rkc2njrqr
null
null
null
null
q8vnuv5sz3e
false
4iC2MEvQtHNkBLBkORm84TeLe0O2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hoes mad about Crispy Cole.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Spongpad
AJEdva4XsZUEh2vQMa0Z
public
contract
1,719,403,336,910
will-the-second-season-of-house-of-800d1533d9ec
LBeesley
https://firebasestorage.…624-9f8c6cb1e486
Will the second season of "House of the Dragon" have a higher average IMDB episode rating than the first? (>8.72)
null
null
null
null
null
lyhqebosgoq
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is this a criteria for this question to \"bring together CEO, Govs, Big economic entities\"? Or is it just the stated purpose?", "type": "tex...
RemNi
q337czcgd1
public
contract
1,719,403,400,317
will-we-see-the-rise-of-a-post-scar
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will we see the rise of a post scarcity economic summit before 2030 ?
g8rkc2njrqr
null
null
null
null
klm6vyiaae
false
yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Dgi7jTdccAY8wgVeuzEjMIObaQM2", "label": "metacontrarian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "men...
Paper Boy
4APsx31Q6c0stKWapa9W
public
contract
1,719,403,878,159
who-will-be-on-an-episode-of-conver
PaperBoy
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c
Who will be on an episode of Conversations with Tyler in 2024?
null
null
163.511396
NO
681325ea7c74
5ggp95o8g2m
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
JRP
rvhupovwx2
public
contract
1,719,403,897,864
when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
When will a tropical storm be named Beryl in 2024?
null
null
1,040.247104
NO
9ibihrp8y4
ba0h97pfwhs
false
yQJobnzBK3aJFoYH6jl8Ns1M2Di2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "They are a country of insane political policies and shit football. There is not one thing I can say I respect about them.", "type": "text" ...
Hans Koch
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,719,404,319,641
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
HansKoch
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL7hFX4KMfBUEsfWkR5M2v6T2xtOT8VaheyE7hqwyx6ryg5cw=s96-c
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Tournament Matches
3zztqumk4xb
null
732.396131
YES
69416dc5e39c
9zmazvxa23c
false
tXhU9337YpgR5HCuSgkMHv98mOl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "June 30th 2024 is a Sunday, so there is no such thing as the stock's closing price on June 30th. So, I guess it is determined by market close on June ...
Jake Lowery
47tcmmuxm8
public
contract
1,719,404,544,615
will-nvidia-stock-reach-150-by-july
JakeLowery
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-5da57c5274f7
Will NVIDIA stock reach $150 by July 1st?
null
0.041692
631.954396
NO
null
c9sscr23m6u
false
JbgmsKyH4UUHM3g3tpf9PKGXLNT2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yes! ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Brooker
spsmzjkqxz
public
contract
1,719,404,563,770
what-election-related-stock-will-in
Brooker
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJCUyBeLE3uL8Bz12FsMymyGe0BrshjUrV_Vjt2TCt8v81jsuM=s96-c
What election related stock will increase the most in the lead up to Nov 5, 2024 vote.
b95n1xmxqdk
null
43.758347
NO
5jlori7f22
tpq5ue0ddn
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "IIRC they've had guys helping with deliveries for a while now ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "ty...
Benjamin Ikuta
kZXjYFXfsL7pxNgrFizV
public
contract
1,719,404,824,982
will-any-country-admit-to-sending-t
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Will any country admit to sending troops to Ukraine by the end of 2024?
fxl3gifirbe
0.785204
196.672444
YES
null
o87sokid9ql
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Nat
DUZenglrsTz7v6BIHh1i
public
contract
1,719,405,184,627
when-will-we-first-see-a-raptor-v3
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
When will we first see a Raptor V3 (or other**) engine fly on a Starship?
null
null
null
null
null
tb8f7her3lb
false
OhOMllKZHpSVaTOBOJj3gg5iJtw2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "this guy lookin like a burlington coat factory ninja turtle can barely see where he sending balls blind like a horse on some oysters and you got him up...
Darlene Pope
e60FvGodRfDFCTNdVljX
public
contract
1,719,405,467,818
who-will-score-the-most-goals-at-eu
DarlenePope
https://firebasestorage.…680-2bc978f9a80e
Who will score the most goals at EURO 2024?
cao1rdwlvq
null
227.365292
NO
49a2dfafd755
l6c643444dm
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
SirCryptomind
chJvLeJNWJtaCL0xlPAO
public
contract
1,719,405,523,868
will-julian-assange-be-extradited-t-cd597d116012
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
Will Julian Assange be extradited to the United States before July 4th 2025?
null
0.03701
1,202.590887
NO
null
0dp0uufgz35o
false
OhOMllKZHpSVaTOBOJj3gg5iJtw2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "graphic don't lie", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Darlene Pope
e60FvGodRfDFCTNdVljX
public
contract
1,719,405,532,864
who-will-score-the-most-goals-at-eu
DarlenePope
https://firebasestorage.…680-2bc978f9a80e
Who will score the most goals at EURO 2024?
wjgk72bbrid
null
227.365292
NO
49a2dfafd755
v9nd96cwlj
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just added some subsidy, so this question is basic now 😎", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": ...
Lion
7VLTUUJqunlA9OtmisvH
public
contract
1,719,405,538,888
who-will-podium-the-tour-de-france
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
Who will podium the Tour de France 2024? [34%/33%/33%]
null
null
558.412213
NO
eb261f26a31d
och0em98cq9
false
J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It wasn't intended to.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Steve Sokolowski
Q0D4T61MgUQvsDGLPFVz
public
contract
1,719,405,786,331
what-will-happen-in-july-2024-add-r
SteveSokolowski
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c
🌭What will happen in July 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
u2ccakwq0dk
null
126.661268
NO
68wil8iemj
kqjptyvjxy
false
OhOMllKZHpSVaTOBOJj3gg5iJtw2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "my down neck niggas never let me down. rolando be sending young ones to check themselves out, doin blood work making sure they got enough t for bustin ...
Darlene Pope
XKuiRpzDUay4PgD32zvF
public
contract
1,719,405,909,300
which-country-will-win-euro-2024
DarlenePope
https://firebasestorage.…680-2bc978f9a80e
Which country will win Euro 2024?
null
null
98.966005
YES
6099ca6cbcc8
ty9qmzdk5lj
false
GSKLuvDpKGhoM9gUTPiwmrk9XWi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Agree, not for profit is left wing coded, just as for profit/capitalisim is right-wing coded, however if there were a comprehensive survey of all the t...
Wamba Ivanhoe
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,406,410,847
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
ShitakiIntaki
https://firebasestorage.…af4-315bb12f4740
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
yu22nhpyzoh
null
55.901372
NO
pnnzqth6u1
ndo2k8uhlj
false
91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I just want to say that if Elon Musk really does think that going to Mars will protect us from rogue AI that's his dumbest idea I've heard on this spec...
PhilosophyBear
m0xokegumb
public
contract
1,719,406,523,573
will-we-have-agi-before-a-mars-colo
PhilosophyBear
https://firebasestorage.…5e9-4830e79d2cee
Will we have AGI before a Mars colony?
null
0.854833
922.300118
YES
null
7ff8zb8a48e
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Now that he is at home in Australia I think all these extradited markets can be safely resolved now.", "type": "text" } ], ...
JRP
chJvLeJNWJtaCL0xlPAO
public
contract
1,719,406,555,588
will-julian-assange-be-extradited-t-cd597d116012
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
Will Julian Assange be extradited to the United States before July 4th 2025?
l6c643444dm
0.03701
2,217.387582
NO
null
rd9dr9eaqe8
false
OhOMllKZHpSVaTOBOJj3gg5iJtw2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "dis orange nigga tellin us gray nigga killin us wit illegals and stealin america. no my mans not gon be shakin it like he at a airport urinal. it aint ...
Darlene Pope
gffoEWwKUc5NIG4cYgZH
public
contract
1,719,406,931,573
will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at
DarlenePope
https://firebasestorage.…680-2bc978f9a80e
Will Trump and Biden shake hands at the first debate in June?
83hsx7rchmr
null
null
null
null
e2fc5gqludp
false
GSKLuvDpKGhoM9gUTPiwmrk9XWi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "66e69xtuxcaOANdzvof19Vm4HFL2", "label": "HoldingC", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Wamba Ivanhoe
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,406,993,119
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
ShitakiIntaki
https://firebasestorage.…af4-315bb12f4740
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
null
null
55.901372
NO
pnnzqth6u1
x65fbzfltr
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Love the banner lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, ...
Nat
pk2cyqv7wp
public
contract
1,719,407,226,192
if-an-elephant-is-taken-to-the-moon
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
If an elephant is taken to the moon, will it be able to learn to walk? 🎪
null
null
null
null
null
k5iqsme4ub
false
OhOMllKZHpSVaTOBOJj3gg5iJtw2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "you be time travelin nigga? top goalscorer in 2030 still be doin maths dreamin about girl in front of class pussy not thinkin about world cup", ...
Darlene Pope
qviq429rhm
public
contract
1,719,407,325,612
who-will-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-t
DarlenePope
https://firebasestorage.…680-2bc978f9a80e
Who will be the top goalscorer at the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
null
null
null
null
null
gxomkjd138s
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Lion
3yG9d20INt3scFpO4cxt
public
contract
1,719,407,741,850
will-team-borahansgrohe-wear-this-j
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
Will team Bora-Hansgrohe wear this jersey(*) in the 2024 Tour de France?
3nv9zb3qkni
0.954333
478.208482
YES
null
yovboatk4c
false
LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Inflation data came out today, it’s likely there’ll be a hike this year. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }...
Enrico Susatyo
SiTN5x7UWKYk2YopK09J
public
contract
1,719,408,023,437
will-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-8ab79330cea3
esusatyo
https://firebasestorage.…a98-6f3b503a06f8
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by end of 2024?
null
0.239324
849.150699
NO
null
j7yuupcn5ir
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Market was supposed to be dependent. Only one period can resolve Yes.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ]...
Kongo Landwalker
94bpfi6yda
public
contract
1,719,408,310,648
official-death-penalty-in-russia
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Official death penalty in Russia
null
null
null
null
null
j3ubb3vnzl
false
IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The jury is deliberating!!! Day 2!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ken Michaels
iNgnYPhSJonrD4RTH8so
public
contract
1,719,408,588,214
will-karen-read-be-found-not-guilty
kenmichaels
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkalbert%2FsV_slNrI7H.MP?alt=media&token=cceb6bb1-21f3-4385-9a6c-c47195b85cb9
Will Karen Read be found NOT GUILTY on all the crimes she is charged with?
null
0.77
556.343732
YES
null
edbnzd2rpk9
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Usually it's transferred on October 1st. If it's postponed to October 2nd because of Hungary, I will re-resolve the market. If it's transferred on Octo...
Gaz Downright
JEdvrURr0C5ywLDZSyqJ
public
contract
1,719,408,722,358
will-hungary-stall-the-election-of
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Will Hungary stall the transition to Mark Rutte as NATO secretary-general beyond October 1st?
xurjap81qub
0.01
602.119729
NO
null
3cddv8f5yrn
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's a perfect match!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliza
3yG9d20INt3scFpO4cxt
public
contract
1,719,408,941,827
will-team-borahansgrohe-wear-this-j
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Will team Bora-Hansgrohe wear this jersey(*) in the 2024 Tour de France?
3nv9zb3qkni
0.961499
36.0805
YES
null
mk1p463qakp
false
ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2", "label": "benjaminIkuta", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "ment...
Oleg Eterevsky
kZXjYFXfsL7pxNgrFizV
public
contract
1,719,409,093,461
will-any-country-admit-to-sending-t
OlegEterevsky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c
Will any country admit to sending troops to Ukraine by the end of 2024?
fxl3gifirbe
null
null
null
null
cbtx74xyaan
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Don't you think the letter of the question criteria trumps its \"spirit\"?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Bruno
JEdvrURr0C5ywLDZSyqJ
public
contract
1,719,409,265,347
will-hungary-stall-the-election-of
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will Hungary stall the transition to Mark Rutte as NATO secretary-general beyond October 1st?
xurjap81qub
0.01
630.387899
YES
null
wefn3gb7g9
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Nat
YDY5HhXAHPLqBQehDW6s
public
contract
1,719,409,312,249
will-nat-write-a-proper-bio
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
Will @Nat write a proper bio?
null
null
null
null
null
sjdyghzsc0b
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "GSKLuvDpKGhoM9gUTPiwmrk9XWi2", "label": "ShitakiIntaki", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "ment...
Bruno
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,409,329,373
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
null
null
3.055573
NO
xu4agxmfx4
e7ixu21hzdn
false
TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "CMon, half manifold is betting that there are going to be catastrophies in the next 10 to 20years... ", "type": "text" } ], ...
ed
2ba41c5wd9
public
contract
1,719,409,516,124
united-nations-will-it-stand-by-204
3d
https://firebasestorage.…588-b9e2bc905854
United nations - will it stand by 2040?
sfrm3rlfcxo
null
18.976112
YES
do9bpvx0l1
nij4qrimpkq
false
nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Landed in Australia:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
SEE
3gnrkp1qg7
public
contract
1,719,409,828,532
what-will-happen-after-the-julian-a
SEE
https://firebasestorage.…0d4-d49ff5ae1dfb
What will happen after the Julian Assange plea deal announced on June 25th? Multi-question.
null
null
923.937605
YES
crxiiob24n
x4kgq2b4pr
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "????", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,409,866,322
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
qp5w4mswgm
null
3.055573
NO
xu4agxmfx4
cgub1gifnb8
false
1CRaxVu0I9XNhYzRLh18yVEKa4G2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "He has indicated both in private and in public that he will pay this bet. That was last night. No payment yet. I will no longer trade this market (in h...
Domer
4p4z5emli8
public
contract
1,719,410,263,142
will-martin-shkreli-pay-domer-20000
Domer
https://firebasestorage.…baf-1484df8ad9aa
Will Martin Shkreli pay @Domer ~$30,000 USD as a result of their bet by the end of 2024?
null
0.29
1,721.17317
YES
null
c47fjehm33d
false
1CRaxVu0I9XNhYzRLh18yVEKa4G2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This can resolve yes ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", ...
Domer
3ont4nhj91
public
contract
1,719,410,348,294
will-domer-win-his-70k-bet-against
Domer
https://firebasestorage.…baf-1484df8ad9aa
Will @Domer win his $70k bet against Martin Shkreli over the authenticity of $DJT on Solana?
null
null
null
null
null
criul5w9lc
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "hit 234 on 3 June per comment below. At 265 now so 31 added in 23 days. At that rate could reach 36/23*31 +265 =313", "type": "text" ...
Christopher Randles
hqTQw1GX53g8obtHvgxO
public
contract
1,719,410,364,462
how-many-traders-will-this-market-g
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
How many traders will this market get?
fsgurcfe4ei
null
770.475411
NO
f9d8f7d9dac6
n4mraj52r59
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For those interested, this is in light of the announcement that the Pixel 9 will be revealed in August:", "type": "text" } ], ...
Nat
LhHrBZU2p31XoCU9YwBj
public
contract
1,719,410,453,547
will-google-pixel-9-be-release-in-o
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
Will Google Pixel 9 be release in October 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
xoiu44lpc5f
false
ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm not a rationalist, but... (yes this is intentional) I feel like GiveWell and GiveDirectly would generally fall on the left, and you don't have to b...
Stark
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,410,603,282
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
StarkLN
https://firebasestorage.…b7b-8e8f10700842
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
null
null
108.23403
NO
axgksbms91
2z0n470p78s
false
3os8dDHZebXXR7S0j0LgnSTXJ7L2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The poll's certainly very informative but I strongly doubt any VP on the list would have a significant negative impact, that's very likely to just be e...
hominidan
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,719,410,748,500
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
hominidan
https://firebasestorage.…1cd-ececcc4cf2f0
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
z1mrzgly82
null
10,531.111338
YES
13383c847440
vnidev34ipg
false
9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "describe us your most likely scenario where UN get's disolved in 15 years", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }...
Jan
2ba41c5wd9
public
contract
1,719,410,806,445
united-nations-will-it-stand-by-204
Jan53274
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c
United nations - will it stand by 2040?
sfrm3rlfcxo
null
436.179886
NO
do9bpvx0l1
8833gncxjm5
false
Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If we see a heatwave like in Ministry for the Future where several hundred thousand people on a single city die from heat, does that count? It's catast...
Enlil
73muasxcc9
public
contract
1,719,410,869,994
what-will-be-the-primary-cause-of-a
Enlil
https://firebasestorage.…679-a63c7b518da2
What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
waaczec5k1q
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Lol, you could have added a \"Derek Brown\" option, too - it was open for new answers", "type": "text" } ], "type": "para...
Genzy
up7n1Rt7aqXRczcWe5v8
public
contract
1,719,411,013,014
who-will-win-the-2024-election-for-57da64a330c5
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
Who will win the 2024 election for the attorney general of Utah?
92k6lvmdewe
null
null
null
null
qr2n50xojd
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why is this considered right-wing? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Snarflak
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,411,239,652
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
null
null
669.025556
NO
5f6db2f28df6
s2errt6bvyj
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "As per the comment below from the creator: ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, ...
Genzy
iu9VlpzoSK4zU5GTeX8h
public
contract
1,719,411,250,649
will-kenya-invade-haiti-by-2025
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
Will Kenyan troops be in Haiti by 2025?
tdxwuvz1cil
null
null
null
null
q8mbedt488c
false
dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yes, the description has been updated!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "a...
D
47tcmmuxm8
public
contract
1,719,411,547,380
will-nvidia-stock-reach-150-by-july
xPMEx
https://firebasestorage.…044-95934e6f5c46
Will NVIDIA stock reach $150 by July 1st?
9zmazvxa23c
null
null
null
null
0ji2v11jctkd
false
JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3", "label": "Adam", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ibozz91
Rv7e9acw25I3VEIzVG1c
public
contract
1,719,411,676,558
what-will-be-the-first-published-co
Ibozz91
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c
What will be the first published counterexample to Collatz conjecture?
null
null
null
null
null
39jfpu7r8f
false
s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "label": "Predictor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
Quantum Gambler
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,719,411,966,549
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
Mirek
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Tournament Matches
sabdb0kwwp
null
1,172.972188
YES
7ce12526f16c
v8t4uvqp5nb
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I updated the description to match the proposed new criteria and unpinned the comment. I'd have left just the tally pinned if I could, but it doesn't m...
Genzy
BetSXeRHXok6VdfPtkp8
public
contract
1,719,412,259,313
will-spacexs-starship-superheavy-la
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
bet938l3e4p
false
jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I believe this can resolve NO: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": ...
Hyperlincoln
Hkb0colmPOHIDHC8HhJn
public
contract
1,719,412,273,400
will-scotus-rule-that-the-federal-g
Hyperlincoln
https://firebasestorage.…f8f-d22d2ae6d687
Will SCOTUS rule that the federal government illegally pressured social media companies in Murthy v. Missouri?
null
0.043397
980.849602
NO
null
50liwwsn64q
false
dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Any", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Alex B. Goode
505gevq7gt
public
contract
1,719,412,415,696
will-biden-say-folks-or-any-variant
AlexbGoode
https://firebasestorage.…43d-e9f8224e3fb7
Will Biden say "folks" or any variant of the word during the debate
mknuve55e2o
null
null
null
null
i906tgpy55q
false
ojCb5qmjfxMGv13gBbFW6sum22v1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Abil Abraham
XAqynrPzqv54Y8xUNqQx
public
contract
1,719,412,481,810
which-artists-will-get-an-anthony-f
AbilAbraham2816
https://firebasestorage.…95f-f91ad5dc1346
🎧Which artists will get an Anthony Fantano (The Needle Drop) review on Youtube in 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
424.795399
YES
2c9fec648ea3
oaqoxxti5pg
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yeah, but you still ate it and you're not hungry.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Predictor 🔥
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,719,412,909,279
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Tournament Matches
sabdb0kwwp
null
1,257.461279
NO
8d719e382ff4
u0h908y2hm
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why is the incumbent Netanyahu at such low odds?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
RIsxmBtmgQAiYHMCWuoc
public
contract
1,719,412,988,654
who-will-be-the-israeli-pm-after-th
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Who will be the Israeli PM after the next election?
null
null
45.310467
YES
4a21c8c656b8
awfqxxfx5ws
false
WSC5NWEmAEXhUdSXeOoJYvzCkGO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Folx\" \"Folk\" \"Folks\" \"Folx\" That kind of thing. It will be obvious", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Hillary Clinton
505gevq7gt
public
contract
1,719,413,003,785
will-biden-say-folks-or-any-variant
HillaryClinton
https://firebasestorage.…d4f-ddf881047e95
Will Biden say "folks" or any variant of the word during the debate
mknuve55e2o
0.958161
262.903927
YES
null
75q5u5zr7gp
false
WKKdTCqHduaNtJN6rUYpPKXwK8U2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Should change the title then. Shouldn't have to read a book to decide whether to bet on a market or not. ", "type": "text" } ],...
Iason Koukas
1BrDgCHeXVHWQZMBGsLR
public
contract
1,719,413,061,885
will-there-be-an-ai-language-model
IasonKoukas
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJIJyDLPEuPXNOzTrfsptZ48FfaLCZm5IfcjrS0XnYKx8=s96-c
Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?
7gosmgvnnmf
0.640192
3,589.861625
YES
null
ipnvpsn1ibo
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Resolves as other if no official endorsement is offered before November 1st.\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
7bupbuhhnd
public
contract
1,719,413,098,939
if-elon-musk-publicly-endorses-a-pr
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
If Elon Musk publicly endorses a presidential candidate before November, who will it be?
null
null
29.829777
YES
x5tk3wq477
huviggh6raa
false
1KcfMPDrXJW6E8biWslfDfO49Uz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Fascinating how detached this market is from other VP markets.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "ty...
Jason
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,719,413,197,062
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
Jason1e41
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLTl4RLD4QKuTXUMboQr4GVWev7Jx-sNdjfkiObl3MK=s96-c
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
null
null
21,741.392438
YES
1956526b7eb9
ewbb186qpjs
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Would repeatedly jumping count?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
pk2cyqv7wp
public
contract
1,719,413,286,094
if-an-elephant-is-taken-to-the-moon
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
If an elephant is taken to the moon, will it be able to learn to walk? 🎪
null
null
null
null
null
hnifie5fi1
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Rules? 🤔", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
qrClIaxHCoNDEacg7Ubf
public
contract
1,719,413,327,978
in-a-year-will-i-think-manifold-app
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
In a year, will I think Manifold applies its rules inconsistently?
null
null
null
null
null
v77pb45ha3
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yeah I'd count that", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nat
pk2cyqv7wp
public
contract
1,719,413,390,198
if-an-elephant-is-taken-to-the-moon
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
If an elephant is taken to the moon, will it be able to learn to walk? 🎪
ewbb186qpjs
null
null
null
null
g3i3zyvycle
false
petoMIbaMqdGwl3agbOXjlZVMJs1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Translation for those who need it (via ChatGPT): ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": n...
Dylan Slagh
gffoEWwKUc5NIG4cYgZH
public
contract
1,719,413,411,478
will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at
DylanSlagh
https://firebasestorage.…65f-b7f20ae0bdd7
Will Trump and Biden shake hands at the first debate in June?
83hsx7rchmr
0.451829
1,615.166142
NO
null
d7bjlegcqre
false
HLgyulVrkGNPH4K7WHM1Tz25lR12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Trump seems uncharacteristically uncertain, which makes me think it's more likely the expert opinions or consensus on the street will be surprised with...
Matt F
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,719,413,422,724
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
MattF
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYf96igKYDAeeCDmrp2xMBcvOR_WlVaHNpyCQbonQ=s96-c
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
huviggh6raa
null
135,311.680689
YES
5a68885b8154
qd0xbx7w2z
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Voldemort won't even have a physical body if it's just S1", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": ...
Plasma Ballin'
Np0LZdLtKZnWdCu3ZmFA
public
contract
1,719,413,423,877
what-will-be-true-of-the-new-harry
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
What will be true of season 1 of the new Harry Potter reboot series?
null
null
132.743477
NO
2aeac83291b7
7auol2pg2qf
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This would likely mean the Cuban people have freed themselves from the Communist regime, so that would be great.", "type": "text" } ...
Bruno
Gx1xUiZxyejPmjYVdVPl
public
contract
1,719,413,529,667
sitting-us-president-visits-cuban-g
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Sitting US president visits Cuban Government Leaders in Cuba before 2034
null
null
null
null
null