id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2
classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2
values | commentType stringclasses 1
value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2
values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
xm2dfpbd3l | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "1KcfMPDrXJW6E8biWslfDfO49Uz1",
"label": "Jason1e41",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"... | Joshua | vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN | public | contract | 1,719,413,558,771 | who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445 | Joshua | Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP) | huviggh6raa | null | 97,147.65552 | YES | 93a1f2f817df | |
smf781g6sca | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How long with no successful walking/leaping would it take for you to resolve no?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | pk2cyqv7wp | public | contract | 1,719,413,675,358 | if-an-elephant-is-taken-to-the-moon | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | If an elephant is taken to the moon, will it be able to learn to walk? 🎪 | ewbb186qpjs | null | null | null | null |
g2y255j4rs | false | oErqbndZHmbaRJNtMqJ1IzFX7Gu2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Will this resolve Yes if the National Guard is deployed to deal with political unrest or to enforce martial law somewhere in the US?",
"type"... | Stephen Stroup | 0XpwaIfuZ7xSfCY1TpDg | public | contract | 1,719,413,750,631 | will-there-be-a-civil-war-violent-r | StephenStroup | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLv5ULXPgEZROx3C453JFMWQ4dNJdSxstlUNzm_TYDxdK08iapzag=s96-c | Will There be a Civil War, Violent Revolution, or Insurgency in USA by 2030? | null | null | null | null | null |
fnoiiywvnjl | false | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I spent some time trying to clarify, but because the clarification is likely to send the market to 95% or 5%, both being reasonable, I'm going with N/A... | Genzy | 8Y9DYtyVhyjXi5cuS8ri | public | contract | 1,719,413,972,403 | will-apple-launch-a-chatgpt-competi | Gen | Will Apple launch a ChatGPT competitor before the end of 2024 | null | null | null | null | null | |
dgbvltmg4cl | false | 1KcfMPDrXJW6E8biWslfDfO49Uz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Other websites, not on here.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jason | vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN | public | contract | 1,719,414,062,499 | who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445 | Jason1e41 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLTl4RLD4QKuTXUMboQr4GVWev7Jx-sNdjfkiObl3MK=s96-c | Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP) | huviggh6raa | null | 21,741.392438 | YES | 1956526b7eb9 |
zspucqppyib | false | sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2",
"label": "ian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | vVv | 1vwl81497o | public | contract | 1,719,414,069,651 | will-claude-35-sonnet-rank-higher-t | vVv | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc217hRvo5DrxSz_u1Qgbbkv-2nqvvCWdszujgbw4A_=s96-c | Will Claude 3.5 Sonnet rank higher than GPT-4o on LMSYS leaderboard? | vk9koz2spf | null | null | null | null |
h3qn62w4ad | false | nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "That comes across as a strawman argument. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
... | Gaz Downright | JEdvrURr0C5ywLDZSyqJ | public | contract | 1,719,414,329,261 | will-hungary-stall-the-election-of | GazDownright | Will Hungary stall the transition to Mark Rutte as NATO secretary-general beyond October 1st? | xurjap81qub | 0.01 | 602.119729 | NO | null | |
pzzqo3j13ei | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "We're pretty close to real money markets with the exception of Vivek, who is wildly overvalued everywhere else. I have lots of limit orders for anyone ... | Joshua | vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN | public | contract | 1,719,414,380,632 | who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445 | Joshua | Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP) | huviggh6raa | null | 97,147.65552 | YES | 93a1f2f817df | |
h788b2yjfxi | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "We'll see what mods decide if that happens. You shouldn't worry a lot, all things considered.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type... | Bruno | JEdvrURr0C5ywLDZSyqJ | public | contract | 1,719,414,407,130 | will-hungary-stall-the-election-of | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will Hungary stall the transition to Mark Rutte as NATO secretary-general beyond October 1st? | xurjap81qub | 0.01 | 630.387899 | YES | null |
eun1xho9o7h | false | nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Sure, I'm open to moderation. Did you bet on the question thinking another factor could push it beyond October 1st; given that Hungary as the cause was... | Gaz Downright | JEdvrURr0C5ywLDZSyqJ | public | contract | 1,719,414,641,498 | will-hungary-stall-the-election-of | GazDownright | Will Hungary stall the transition to Mark Rutte as NATO secretary-general beyond October 1st? | xurjap81qub | 0.01 | 602.119729 | NO | null | |
561kuslxz7c | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | RemNi | mRBNcO0A76OgW34mcR2c | public | contract | 1,719,414,847,200 | will-semaglutide-improve-lifespan-w | RemNi | Before 2033, will semaglutide be shown to improve lifespan, when prescribed to overweight people? | d940j3h4ik2x6gr4JH0m | 0.895638 | 33.282672 | YES | null | |
fbn8yrlsblb | false | HLgyulVrkGNPH4K7WHM1Tz25lR12 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Happy to be the vivek bag holder 😎",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"co... | Matt F | vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN | public | contract | 1,719,414,854,601 | who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445 | MattF | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYf96igKYDAeeCDmrp2xMBcvOR_WlVaHNpyCQbonQ=s96-c | Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP) | huviggh6raa | null | 135,311.680689 | YES | 5a68885b8154 |
qivfjcvw4l | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I bet on the question based on the criterion I quoted and the news I linked to. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph... | Bruno | JEdvrURr0C5ywLDZSyqJ | public | contract | 1,719,414,969,850 | will-hungary-stall-the-election-of | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will Hungary stall the transition to Mark Rutte as NATO secretary-general beyond October 1st? | xurjap81qub | 0.01 | 630.387899 | YES | null |
qap1yeb96em | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Belgium looks to be super heavy on defending with this lineup.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
... | Predictor 🔥 | 0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2 | public | contract | 1,719,414,999,526 | uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc | Predictor | UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Tournament Matches | null | null | 1,257.461279 | NO | 8d719e382ff4 | |
7ys1d8tqih | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | RemNi | mRBNcO0A76OgW34mcR2c | public | contract | 1,719,415,108,803 | will-semaglutide-improve-lifespan-w | RemNi | Before 2033, will semaglutide be shown to improve lifespan, when prescribed to overweight people? | d940j3h4ik2x6gr4JH0m | 0.895638 | 33.282672 | YES | null | |
eleipiia5qg | false | Bt3D7JBUmZRMSeA19Zxa8YI2ZM53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Chances are to one sided to not bet ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Edwin Meza | h21yoxpegf | public | contract | 1,719,415,231,974 | will-the-team-that-is-the-2025-nhl | EdwinMeza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI2xUO00dMTzqQqFVpWY4CsTxMWFWAlAI_71dA3oy2xI5VP5hiL=s96-c | Will the team that is the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup winner be a first-time champion? | null | null | null | null | null |
u87xipj4kf | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If semaglutide reduces mortality from cardiovascular and kidney disease, then it's likely to reduce mortality in overweight people.",
"type":... | RemNi | mRBNcO0A76OgW34mcR2c | public | contract | 1,719,415,278,719 | will-semaglutide-improve-lifespan-w | RemNi | Before 2033, will semaglutide be shown to improve lifespan, when prescribed to overweight people? | d940j3h4ik2x6gr4JH0m | 0.895638 | 33.282672 | YES | null | |
k9d4fakwtb | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2",
"label": "Panfilo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Ziddletwix | y4gMmrkZIohPqNsoZvOM | public | contract | 1,719,415,419,314 | taylor-swift-1-album-for-10-or-more | Ziddletwix | Taylor Swift #1 album for 10 or more weeks in a row? | null | null | null | null | null | |
dekkcfy7w5 | false | AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Hmmm, good question",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
... | Nat | pk2cyqv7wp | public | contract | 1,719,415,541,946 | if-an-elephant-is-taken-to-the-moon | Nat | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c | If an elephant is taken to the moon, will it be able to learn to walk? 🎪 | ewbb186qpjs | null | null | null | null |
dm51c2xkh8h | false | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What do you think should be added to the title? I'm open to revisions that add clarity, \"surpass\" in this context covers multiple criteria, and yeah,... | Genzy | 1BrDgCHeXVHWQZMBGsLR | public | contract | 1,719,415,689,719 | will-there-be-an-ai-language-model | Gen | Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024? | 7gosmgvnnmf | 0.61 | 801.204196 | NO | null | |
3e9mopbut4j | false | Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Often times with motivation markets people say they will only bet YES and not NO. So that people can bet NO to motivate them with the reward of Mana.",... | Andrew Smith | t4h3ueakpa | public | contract | 1,719,415,744,878 | will-i-manage-to-write-my-first-obs | asmith | Will I manage to write my first obsidian plugin in a week? | null | 0.494235 | 23.059991 | NO | null | |
6in3kuldik7 | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Thanks for clarification :) ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content":... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | pk2cyqv7wp | public | contract | 1,719,415,806,364 | if-an-elephant-is-taken-to-the-moon | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | If an elephant is taken to the moon, will it be able to learn to walk? 🎪 | ewbb186qpjs | 0.587667 | 17.118471 | YES | null |
bq0cubc06yw | false | faAZQRWR2YTPZJAYEXhw56ydDHL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Can you clarify \"CONQUER ALL OF\" please. At this point only bits of Rafah are \"unconquered\", no?",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | Chris Mills | hXQxipvUia08lEEepvW7 | public | contract | 1,719,415,945,682 | how-long-will-it-take-the-israeli-a | ChrisMillsc5f7 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLmttkO7a_SkKKmgvJV_wh3BtRxvZZxf0PCf1Z7MbCn=s96-c | How long will it take the Israeli army to conquer all of Gaza? | null | null | 303.559327 | YES | 0952bee273a1 |
hpje7qix5u4 | false | 3EmR4hlEOnMbCGvf9OVs06xidwh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "hm, maybe. I'm gonna buy 50 on yes then. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | SlipperySloe | t4h3ueakpa | public | contract | 1,719,415,946,137 | will-i-manage-to-write-my-first-obs | SlipperySloe | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL9TEW3ZhkaigGGIIbqjV1SPUlLoxYjFsM2bWTYBMfZNUI=s96-c | Will I manage to write my first obsidian plugin in a week? | 3e9mopbut4j | null | null | null | null |
ho22wtii21h | false | ygLJeOBhIXP8stVUOKUgtCi1Mdt1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Metastable | m0xokegumb | public | contract | 1,719,416,119,969 | will-we-have-agi-before-a-mars-colo | Metastable | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSpirit59%2FxrikxR-98A.%20zupa?alt=media&token=7af37655-01c8-4c16-a121-ce95d9d6a73b | Will we have AGI before a Mars colony? | null | null | null | null | null |
tfc06vqu1im | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | pk2cyqv7wp | public | contract | 1,719,416,136,398 | if-an-elephant-is-taken-to-the-moon | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | If an elephant is taken to the moon, will it be able to learn to walk? 🎪 | x65fbzfltr | 0.587667 | 17.118471 | YES | null |
hhje2bzprod | false | Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "But also, if someone bets NO and you bet YES after them, you get a better value. And you can also bet YES at the very end to get all the remaining liqu... | Andrew Smith | t4h3ueakpa | public | contract | 1,719,416,143,080 | will-i-manage-to-write-my-first-obs | asmith | Will I manage to write my first obsidian plugin in a week? | 3e9mopbut4j | 0.52273 | 23.059991 | NO | null | |
243pwl4zye9j | false | faAZQRWR2YTPZJAYEXhw56ydDHL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolve already!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Chris Mills | HKrelEorkBFVE8xJb2Pc | public | contract | 1,719,416,149,160 | will-the-next-uk-general-election-b | ChrisMillsc5f7 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLmttkO7a_SkKKmgvJV_wh3BtRxvZZxf0PCf1Z7MbCn=s96-c | Will the next UK general election be held before 1st January 2025 | null | 0.971716 | 55.555886 | YES | null |
92j2cbdqhv | false | jAY6viyswAc4uYYXaBKKSmqjBzs1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Trump freaks out and stops funding it.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | IC Rainbow | 2ba41c5wd9 | public | contract | 1,719,416,158,155 | united-nations-will-it-stand-by-204 | ICRainbow | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxax3Edymo0WwuHQmZ4dtKDhb5-pSv_qdMfPA4FTpUk=s96-c | United nations - will it stand by 2040? | sfrm3rlfcxo | null | 81.35005 | NO | y4zoe8mefy |
dznav7rgl2t | false | 9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This happend already multiple times in history. the US contributes only 20% of the UN budget. the other countries will not dissolve it because of this ... | Jan | 2ba41c5wd9 | public | contract | 1,719,416,434,918 | united-nations-will-it-stand-by-204 | Jan53274 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c | United nations - will it stand by 2040? | sfrm3rlfcxo | null | 436.179886 | NO | do9bpvx0l1 |
7vxqh1fkmhn | false | 3EmR4hlEOnMbCGvf9OVs06xidwh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'll rather won't bet anymore, just in case. I don't want to accidentally mess up other people's bets.",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | SlipperySloe | t4h3ueakpa | public | contract | 1,719,416,526,051 | will-i-manage-to-write-my-first-obs | SlipperySloe | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL9TEW3ZhkaigGGIIbqjV1SPUlLoxYjFsM2bWTYBMfZNUI=s96-c | Will I manage to write my first obsidian plugin in a week? | 3e9mopbut4j | 0.52273 | 94.623286 | YES | null |
uq5dkurak8a | false | WKKdTCqHduaNtJN6rUYpPKXwK8U2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Write strongly surpass unequivocally",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Iason Koukas | 1BrDgCHeXVHWQZMBGsLR | public | contract | 1,719,416,540,447 | will-there-be-an-ai-language-model | IasonKoukas | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJIJyDLPEuPXNOzTrfsptZ48FfaLCZm5IfcjrS0XnYKx8=s96-c | Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024? | 7gosmgvnnmf | 0.61 | -0 | YES | null |
17nsihovdl4 | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kmfWUUM4lRPnKZ8ACCoO7cXlkl22",
"label": "TheCryptoSingh",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "men... | Ziddletwix | ek3hfsjiqp | public | contract | 1,719,416,881,079 | how-many-times-will-mrbeast-post-on | Ziddletwix | How many times will MrBeast post on X.com before end of this month? | null | null | 0 | NO | 1j3bglb0a6 | |
ocwnkrkt4p8 | false | AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "No idea, it would definitely make sense to test how elephants react to (both behaviourally and physiologically) 0g/low-g before you commit to launching... | Nat | pk2cyqv7wp | public | contract | 1,719,416,996,316 | if-an-elephant-is-taken-to-the-moon | Nat | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c | If an elephant is taken to the moon, will it be able to learn to walk? 🎪 | ewbb186qpjs | null | null | null | null |
r55q0at3e5k | false | AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ayyy your one's much better, it's still got a very non-functional helmet but at least it's got the Earth in the background and much more correct elepha... | Nat | pk2cyqv7wp | public | contract | 1,719,417,134,223 | if-an-elephant-is-taken-to-the-moon | Nat | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c | If an elephant is taken to the moon, will it be able to learn to walk? 🎪 | x65fbzfltr | null | null | null | null |
gel0nqcjzi | false | AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "No:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null... | Nat | f4w5jabz8u | public | contract | 1,719,417,403,555 | will-nasa-award-a-contract-to-a-new | Nat | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c | Will NASA award a contract to a new commercial partner to develop a spacesuit by mid 2026? | vvj0yh2ljz | null | null | null | null |
my3qmw3y7m | false | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I added unequivocally to the title: “unequivocally passes” but instantly reverted it, I think this is a good idea but might not exactly fit the spirit ... | Genzy | 1BrDgCHeXVHWQZMBGsLR | public | contract | 1,719,417,405,743 | will-there-be-an-ai-language-model | Gen | Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024? | 7gosmgvnnmf | 0.61 | 801.204196 | NO | null | |
ek5hirg59m8 | false | kmfWUUM4lRPnKZ8ACCoO7cXlkl22 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It's number of times he posts after creation of this market.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type... | Crypto Singh | ek3hfsjiqp | public | contract | 1,719,417,782,231 | how-many-times-will-mrbeast-post-on | TheCryptoSingh | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIs8fn9_YAPMot_H5agPLIqeIs6nYw-FmfXMpXmxintfsbdcWL9=s96-c | How many times will MrBeast post on X.com before end of this month? | 17nsihovdl4 | null | null | null | null |
ssu8nqzlwa | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "and if he reposts another tweet (i.e. not adding his own tweet in reply, just a repost), does that count? (looks like he doesn't do that often so probs... | Ziddletwix | ek3hfsjiqp | public | contract | 1,719,417,891,638 | how-many-times-will-mrbeast-post-on | Ziddletwix | How many times will MrBeast post on X.com before end of this month? | 17nsihovdl4 | null | 386.474247 | NO | 9p7362y895 | |
bvutoy86nuo | false | kmfWUUM4lRPnKZ8ACCoO7cXlkl22 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yes post and repost both are counted.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Crypto Singh | ek3hfsjiqp | public | contract | 1,719,417,973,344 | how-many-times-will-mrbeast-post-on | TheCryptoSingh | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIs8fn9_YAPMot_H5agPLIqeIs6nYw-FmfXMpXmxintfsbdcWL9=s96-c | How many times will MrBeast post on X.com before end of this month? | 17nsihovdl4 | null | null | null | null |
b5gxp81uuur | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "also, looks like 4 is missing? so these don't cover all options. you might want to change e.g. \"3\" to be \"3-4\", or if you don't want to change opti... | Ziddletwix | ek3hfsjiqp | public | contract | 1,719,417,984,992 | how-many-times-will-mrbeast-post-on | Ziddletwix | How many times will MrBeast post on X.com before end of this month? | 17nsihovdl4 | null | 386.474247 | NO | 9p7362y895 | |
bipa3vt2q3a | false | KIwlElgsxgYoF5n2WttelP6Rt922 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2",
"label": "10thOfficial",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | MrVgpo | UQIVR5EPgi2JSmHoWB5C | public | contract | 1,719,418,100,542 | uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop | MrVgpo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJw52-uO7x4Aq2cxAkVLcnbQu4b73M1jXj7EQKCexAzRCkeyVs=s96-c | UEFA Euro Cup 2024 Tournament Prop Bets ⚽ LIVE! | null | null | null | null | null |
mdwj8jfp0r | false | kmfWUUM4lRPnKZ8ACCoO7cXlkl22 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yeah realised that and made required changes. Thanks for highlighting 🙏",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
... | Crypto Singh | ek3hfsjiqp | public | contract | 1,719,418,128,857 | how-many-times-will-mrbeast-post-on | TheCryptoSingh | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIs8fn9_YAPMot_H5agPLIqeIs6nYw-FmfXMpXmxintfsbdcWL9=s96-c | How many times will MrBeast post on X.com before end of this month? | 17nsihovdl4 | null | null | null | null |
r511tqim0mf | false | IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Holy cow I was right",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Andrew | 2IERKllChO1q9U0M7VsU | public | contract | 1,719,418,153,811 | dragon-stock | AndrewCrosse | Dragon Stock | urj23a06foe | 0.929693 | 661.69362 | YES | null | |
nxzg19zfhh | false | jAY6viyswAc4uYYXaBKKSmqjBzs1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Other countries have their own trumps this time.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | IC Rainbow | 2ba41c5wd9 | public | contract | 1,719,418,235,743 | united-nations-will-it-stand-by-204 | ICRainbow | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxax3Edymo0WwuHQmZ4dtKDhb5-pSv_qdMfPA4FTpUk=s96-c | United nations - will it stand by 2040? | sfrm3rlfcxo | null | 81.35005 | NO | y4zoe8mefy |
ezu8goduel | false | Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It doesn't work that way. You don't mess up other peoples' bets when you bet",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | Andrew Smith | t4h3ueakpa | public | contract | 1,719,418,402,863 | will-i-manage-to-write-my-first-obs | asmith | Will I manage to write my first obsidian plugin in a week? | 3e9mopbut4j | 0.52273 | 23.059991 | NO | null | |
tmyhvkl8epc | false | Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What about schizophrenia?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Andrew Smith | fCCUmmfonc2qXXhvr3Tv | public | contract | 1,719,418,532,794 | is-the-downward-secular-trend-in-fe | asmith | Is the downward secular trend in female puberty mostly genetic? | THGavf6krBUGbMfFnAXt | null | null | null | null | |
53k4oxf1z54 | false | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Gotcha. I still think resolving NO makes sense even with the ambiguity, but I'll honor your wishes here.",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | Ian Philips | 1vwl81497o | public | contract | 1,719,419,076,665 | will-claude-35-sonnet-rank-higher-t | ian | Will Claude 3.5 Sonnet rank higher than GPT-4o on LMSYS leaderboard? | vk9koz2spf | null | null | null | null | |
setwi3jt47 | false | 3EmR4hlEOnMbCGvf9OVs06xidwh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think it can get a little unfair when it's my own market that I fully control",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"... | SlipperySloe | t4h3ueakpa | public | contract | 1,719,419,214,241 | will-i-manage-to-write-my-first-obs | SlipperySloe | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL9TEW3ZhkaigGGIIbqjV1SPUlLoxYjFsM2bWTYBMfZNUI=s96-c | Will I manage to write my first obsidian plugin in a week? | 3e9mopbut4j | 0.52273 | 94.623286 | YES | null |
fa69i3j6nn | false | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yes, if own goal is credited to them. No shoot-out shots count.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"t... | The Official | UQIVR5EPgi2JSmHoWB5C | public | contract | 1,719,419,250,783 | uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop | 10thOfficial | UEFA Euro Cup 2024 Tournament Prop Bets ⚽ LIVE! | bipa3vt2q3a | null | 1,799.497005 | NO | 94dbi9xjvs | |
koc98kfscgf | false | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In practice modern AI is usually ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks"... | Evan | x98tsufnid | public | contract | 1,719,419,526,793 | will-ai-accelerators-improve-in-flo | EvanDaniel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c | Will AI accelerators improve in FLOPs/watt by 100x of an NVidia H100 by 2033? | e5d77s8be9b | 0.92 | 1,087.133662 | YES | null |
w1gnx7wcro | false | HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Oops, resolved June too soon",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Odoacre | csIy55H3ygYhZLDDfSIJ | public | contract | 1,719,419,913,677 | which-months-will-have-a-record-on | Odoacre | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a | Which month(s) will have a record on Mana sales going forward | null | null | 367.804186 | NO | 7a1lkjco84 |
o4cvnfjdo5m | false | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Alito Gorsuch Thomas in the dissent.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt... | Archibald Crone | jrBJiVO8Fr0o6v5QuitA | public | contract | 1,719,420,151,653 | will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-so | BlueDragon | 🛜🗳️🗣️ Will the Supreme Court rule that social media companies can’t moderate content? | null | 0.07 | 35.373516 | NO | null | |
k2hk0dp46x | false | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Note this is a different social media censorship case, but the ruling may be interesting to those reading in this market.",
"type": "text"
... | Archibald Crone | jrBJiVO8Fr0o6v5QuitA | public | contract | 1,719,420,233,923 | will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-so | BlueDragon | 🛜🗳️🗣️ Will the Supreme Court rule that social media companies can’t moderate content? | o4cvnfjdo5m | 0.07 | 35.373516 | NO | null | |
3kn8p441na5 | false | n1ZFS428CKRTVF5xiAJJHsfGfss2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
... | Najawin | eF3bR2ZBZLT6EV14FELy | public | contract | 1,719,420,771,702 | what-is-the-best-definition-of-evid | Najawin | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIeT2AGuhQ3RJ_aXRU0h-DIVlDI88KHt7zuAy_NJ6l5=s96-c | What is the best definition of evidence? (add your own) | 0svx3kwozjxd | null | 63.049625 | YES | 673b1384c922 |
w4bjxqb50ck | false | 6hyyqWyKeWYdjVWE3Sa7Y2205m53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Germany, Spain, France, Portugal , Belgium and Denmark are on the same half, so this market already bets on that side 69%, so England has the \"easy\" ... | 29 | 5wdifzNBgWUqHlgdMp6a | public | contract | 1,719,420,853,495 | which-team-will-win-the-2024-uefa-e | 29 | Euro 2024: Which team will win the 2024 UEFA European Football Championship? | z7xpsmcw3iq | null | null | null | null | |
iaym0a10768 | false | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "that's great but they're just going to end up losing to slovakia or something",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | Savior of Plant | 5wdifzNBgWUqHlgdMp6a | public | contract | 1,719,420,925,586 | which-team-will-win-the-2024-uefa-e | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | Euro 2024: Which team will win the 2024 UEFA European Football Championship? | z7xpsmcw3iq | null | 4.499219 | YES | 76cd63782f4d |
kltz6sgd9d | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "NEH ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Shaked Koplewitz | i6peb3y6s2 | public | contract | 1,719,420,995,963 | will-at-least-3-of-the-10-technolog | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Will at least 3 of the 10 Technologies that Won't Exist in 5 Years, exist in 5 years? | null | 0.384766 | 80.305902 | NO | null |
iq10xz3o9 | false | srqK0MA5FBYrXLBAYrh41JxIvJA3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I mean the group surveyed differs by a lot I would guess. The poll here is done by Olympiad kids, while the other poll is future math majors. So imo th... | Abhi | dv5pzhi3lg | public | contract | 1,719,421,449,953 | which-number-is-smaller-between-4-o | Skyguy | Which number is smaller between 4 (YES) and -10 (NO), according to Mathematicians? | zii1vyipl | 0.213935 | 0 | YES | null | |
z3lqnhllve8 | false | MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What if it swatches twice in one day?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jim | v9qmefyvbf | public | contract | 1,719,421,831,499 | how-many-times-will-538s-election-m | JimAusman | How many times will 538's election model change its predicted winner between today (25 Jun) and the election? | null | null | null | null | null | |
cdkl3b1vz8g | false | 9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Fortunately, the graph is only updated once per day. You can mouse-over the graph to see each day's estimate.",
"type": "text"
}
... | Michael | v9qmefyvbf | public | contract | 1,719,421,902,143 | how-many-times-will-538s-election-m | burkh4rt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv31Whhbh-4wrvOPbGM9zLTlznsRJp_8zkd0nrodHyg6za=s96-c | How many times will 538's election model change its predicted winner between today (25 Jun) and the election? | z3lqnhllve8 | null | 59.215813 | NO | 7jci621k8y |
yxarg9wfjpf | false | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "All four are on the startlists announced by teams, I expect them all to start Stage 1 in a couple days!",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | Eliza | Adj4HULaqjDUSfolZgtP | public | contract | 1,719,422,216,950 | will-a-tour-de-france-have-vingegaa | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | Will a Tour de France have Vingegaard, Pogacar, Roglic and Evenepoel competing against each other? | null | 0.934473 | 271.200946 | YES | null |
sfm69nfppxq | false | 6hyyqWyKeWYdjVWE3Sa7Y2205m53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | 29 | XKuiRpzDUay4PgD32zvF | public | contract | 1,719,422,269,069 | which-country-will-win-euro-2024 | 29 | Which country will win Euro 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
bdhzr3ckwm | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Release imminent. I have finished writing it, and all that's left is maybe some minor tweaks or additional footnotes. Should be released later today.",... | Plasma Ballin' | JK0bzfLdilSjV6Npnxt0 | public | contract | 1,719,422,290,495 | which-phrases-will-be-in-my-next-su | PlasmaBallin | Which phrases will be in my next Substack post? | null | null | 246.234265 | YES | 2bf4fe92967e | |
gxgmxy7buru | false | Cy0ob0rBI1ZmToC7cnVKNRHiYgk2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The model gives:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{... | Eric Neyman | 0j9pzz81rj | public | contract | 1,719,422,470,741 | which-strange-outputs-of-other-mode | EricNeyman | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiPFPOiz1zGjPpuk7iqSJxdcLSra5RL3n0RXK2q=s96-c | Which strange outputs of other models will Nate Silver's 2024 election model replicate? | null | null | 2,382.129011 | YES | 9qe9f5mx2d |
fmgp2yd0uqt | false | F8KcKLPughaLSaqVMgwVcdkHTul2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Update?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Paul | 25QGlwlAaDJaJy105ESc | public | contract | 1,719,422,526,103 | am-i-autistic | Paulith | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIHa4Skn6HHsMqDfZwL6acec4VIUrcwGzztbvQ_mhU63A=s96-c | Am I Autistic? | null | 0.477747 | 4.062047 | YES | null |
0krwy2kut7fg | false | SrKm9OghX8hoxUmrztZJe88oplQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Nate Silver tweeted putting Trump at ~65%",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
... | Michael Mars | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,423,034,235 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | ooe133 | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | null | 17,323.576695 | NO | 51e4cacd136a | |
dfut8aqnj2f | false | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Mind if I add \"Or any Presidency Winner market\" to the criteria?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
... | Michael Wheatley | rGDboTW9BPxQFfam3XeS | public | contract | 1,719,423,931,484 | will-manifolds-us-elections-page-cr | MichaelWheatley | Will Manifold's U.S. Elections page crash during election night? | null | 0.53 | 49.012931 | YES | null | |
rsdjuq547q | false | 12ztXVGfibSZaCDnGndN40PKUIO2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This market will use an adjusted flop/s/w by adjusting k-bit precision by a factor of 2^(1 - 32/k). That is, 16 bit precision counts 1/4 as much as 32 ... | Paul | x98tsufnid | public | contract | 1,719,424,169,185 | will-ai-accelerators-improve-in-flo | Paul | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GivsAmgOWywNYNzHSwlvq95nQAGKHiFjTR4-W0NRg=s96-c | Will AI accelerators improve in FLOPs/watt by 100x of an NVidia H100 by 2033? | e5d77s8be9b | null | null | null | null |
ctkij5v568g | false | TjvzR8cg5cVoLshGhhe4kwxnJEH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Other (none)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Symmetry | krvvpuirf1 | public | contract | 1,719,424,202,222 | who-will-be-the-most-cited-ml-resea | Symmetry | Who will be the most cited ML researcher alive in 2040? | null | null | 1.39724 | YES | a7nxq82y2i | |
i67b07gvhe | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2",
"label": "10thOfficial",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | Ziddletwix | ZLXRhhmxaWTMQpwYcqcj | public | contract | 1,719,425,121,510 | republican-presidential-primary-deb | Ziddletwix | Presidential Debate - Live! | null | null | null | null | null | |
vxyyaqjh1oq | false | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Nate Silver has Trump over 60% chance to win ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kevin Burke | SsAdHNNaI9hRRMe1XqgG | public | contract | 1,719,425,179,572 | will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres | KevinBurke | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election? | null | 0.57 | 31,515.038021 | YES | null | |
nb8pm2drx2e | false | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yes",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The Official | ZLXRhhmxaWTMQpwYcqcj | public | contract | 1,719,425,180,791 | republican-presidential-primary-deb | 10thOfficial | Presidential Debate - Live! | i67b07gvhe | null | 5,791.960809 | YES | 9e904271c34e | |
nq58hgzdlwb | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | stefanie | igt6gk2bgo | public | contract | 1,719,425,384,998 | how-will-this-disputed-market-on-po | shankypanky | How will this disputed market on Polymarket resolve? [Was Barron involved in $DJT?] | null | 0.041157 | 549.218712 | NO | null | |
7thadsu2338 | false | xwMki73QMuMqZuKJYVj2sweCIKn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Adding \"...on manifold\" would be appropriate I think.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "d... | Scipio Fabius | rGDboTW9BPxQFfam3XeS | public | contract | 1,719,425,689,785 | will-manifolds-us-elections-page-cr | ScipioFabius | Will Manifold's U.S. Elections page crash during election night? | dfut8aqnj2f | 0.53 | 54.924091 | YES | null | |
kvncqg9pjgc | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | chris (strutheo) | l69z529whu | public | contract | 1,719,426,123,493 | will-there-be-a-decision-issued-in-oabg5la44k | strutheo | Will there be a decision issued in the NJ vs Norcross lawsuit by the end of May 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
nv2vvk6e0cs | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | chris (strutheo) | ldpqmetlaf | public | contract | 1,719,426,129,529 | what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-nj | strutheo | What will be the outcome of the NJ vs Norcross trial? | null | null | null | null | null | |
rilydgj41l | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | chris (strutheo) | 42pfwtzd5e | public | contract | 1,719,426,147,198 | will-there-be-a-decision-issued-in-3k0p4crwxz | strutheo | Will there be a decision issued in the NJ vs Norcross lawsuit by the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
nileutb7c7 | false | 2BVjwaEP1tYvmQ1xqIRzkID5aPC2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Lots of great tools to help out with development like Cursor or Sonnet 3.5",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | Corinne | t4h3ueakpa | public | contract | 1,719,426,667,836 | will-i-manage-to-write-my-first-obs | manic_pixie_agi | Will I manage to write my first obsidian plugin in a week? | null | 0.534123 | 45.79817 | YES | null | |
q790kr7eqd | false | ChkIUvDGJqPjAcsjRqLdvzWfeyw1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The Economist is bullish",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": nul... | Simone Romeo | dtZ20y0emlM6dwe2K4VD | public | contract | 1,719,426,916,807 | will-global-photovoltaic-installati | SimoneRomeo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKsTe1OuSlrF4Bq4iBBPjtQlimBPGxShXSI_8Cz0MehwA=s96-c | Will global photovoltaic installations grow from 510 GW in 2023 to 8713 GW in 2030? | null | null | 1,210.87041 | YES | ca689b13e1ba |
hyr8ezvs0gn | false | xwMki73QMuMqZuKJYVj2sweCIKn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2",
"label": "mattyb",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Scipio Fabius | tWZLeaImisunOeGzzT9w | public | contract | 1,719,427,021,285 | what-sports-will-the-usa-win-a-gold-e0061db59dde | ScipioFabius | What sports will the USA win a gold medal in the 2024 Paris Olympics? 🏟️🇺🇸🏅 | null | null | 920.358294 | NO | 59e3ec87d261 | |
0vlph36wf67 | false | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You guys taking this to 43 are making me want to convert some prize points ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | Mark Hamill | 4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F | public | contract | 1,719,427,171,380 | will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres | MarkHamill | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | 0.43 | 33,786.128117 | YES | null | |
d5eqnlraxwh | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433",
"label": "Conflux",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Ziddletwix | l8PdukmgVXy4t0j8mb9F | public | contract | 1,719,427,283,719 | will-someone-besides-fivethirtyeigh | Ziddletwix | Will someone besides FiveThirtyEight publish Nate Silver’s 2024 general election model? | null | 0.970671 | 1,033.368203 | YES | null | |
uchq6yvc6id | false | TVbBrEXvrLfttgh5OtxGz84wWsn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "whats in the cocktail, any ideas?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | carl | ean2rep51a | public | contract | 1,719,427,286,801 | will-joe-biden-fall-during-the-pres | carl | Will Joe Biden Fall During the Presidential Debate? | fs0mkh0e1ff | null | null | null | null | |
8oreizngszd | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Sure sure",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type"... | Bruno | eF3bR2ZBZLT6EV14FELy | public | contract | 1,719,427,329,736 | what-is-the-best-definition-of-evid | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | What is the best definition of evidence? (add your own) | 0svx3kwozjxd | null | 3.644809 | YES | bb0890306b4f |
4pkrwidygj4 | false | PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | CyfralCoot | T9BClzVSR3grvKRWCApH | public | contract | 1,719,427,582,233 | which-youtube-channels-will-release-wkgauivkam | CyfralCoot | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c | ▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | 4,309.957478 | YES | lahsln73pj |
wx7egwjf4ai | false | NMM5G9DoEfaiKMQqBzjvxiRQN1D3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ya that's my implicit bias showing 😬. Well pointed out. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": ... | Shrew | YLdY4I2pROfhLtJ1ncpf | public | contract | 1,719,427,744,707 | will-the-first-first-gentleman-of-t | Shrewdan | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLxAk9O1zy4XFaj-kaNHbrz_tm0MBz3Ps3_N3tlxpKLiQ=s96-c | Will the first First Gentleman of the USA be known to be a gamer? | 18nwv0l7v1c | 0.458386 | 0 | YES | null |
3z9380we8mg | false | evfOfV4Sm1cv8ONlwl4I6KOwk4f2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " trump and co have been cautioning on result of the debate this week. Though historically debates don’t move the needle. ",
"type": "text"
... | BennyBoy | SsAdHNNaI9hRRMe1XqgG | public | contract | 1,719,427,785,174 | will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres | BennyBoy | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election? | vxyyaqjh1oq | 0.490364 | 63,180.046636 | NO | null | |
30i4vklrtkm | false | zjr9WqBJXCVlBtMlT7Sqr5l3lZH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I have bought back in on the short term June 30 and start of July bets. Quinnipiac +4 for Trump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"ty... | brian wang | l6vOZFr7LZ3KRsszwDHp | public | contract | 1,719,428,728,201 | will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p-22b14142a89a | brianwang | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc7vglm2xipIc2J-X98SrL2OEK1QS-ecZ721GHOIQ2euTfa=s96-c | Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of July? (538) | d7cugzfs64b | 0.530553 | 548.771641 | YES | null |
f6qkz9tgyi | false | zjr9WqBJXCVlBtMlT7Sqr5l3lZH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Actually, see now that Quinnipiac only moved it to within 0.1 so getting back out.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragr... | brian wang | l6vOZFr7LZ3KRsszwDHp | public | contract | 1,719,428,947,690 | will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p-22b14142a89a | brianwang | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc7vglm2xipIc2J-X98SrL2OEK1QS-ecZ721GHOIQ2euTfa=s96-c | Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of July? (538) | d7cugzfs64b | 0.527917 | -0 | YES | null |
gmukcgv33ze | false | xwMki73QMuMqZuKJYVj2sweCIKn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": "",
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"lan... | Scipio Fabius | 4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F | public | contract | 1,719,429,229,644 | will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres | ScipioFabius | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0vlph36wf67 | 0.43517 | 214.34044 | YES | null | |
wt5ah1ioyn | false | bzaLzQXeU3NwzawClYtJkNxc5fj1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Daniel | ZLnXae9dXnTryLWWScUi | public | contract | 1,719,429,553,334 | will-donald-trump-select-a-running | DanielRohrer | Will Donald Trump select a running mate for VP prior to July 15, 2024? | null | 0.399168 | 307.350891 | YES | null | |
tc8pok1zj7c | false | bzaLzQXeU3NwzawClYtJkNxc5fj1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "related ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
... | Daniel | vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN | public | contract | 1,719,429,598,887 | who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445 | DanielRohrer | Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP) | null | null | 497.928031 | YES | 9cd645d0bc81 | |
rwh0qxlf0sk | false | vhOb9Oblv0UdSWE0t95c7C18nxt2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I have mixed feelings about Biden and prefer some Trump policies. But Trump's whole \"if I win I win and if I lose it was rigged and I still win\" thin... | Ṁ710 | 4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F | public | contract | 1,719,429,767,251 | will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres | ElmerFudd | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FElmerFudd%2FO_VjM6kAYN.07?alt=media&token=41234898-830b-4e46-ae81-5236cc9e8349 | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | s13xzt2qzv8 | 0.434753 | 327.525172 | NO | null |
u8iy0w1ape | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Does anyone have a prop bets market for the second debate tonight?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF | public | contract | 1,719,429,780,264 | which-of-the-following-will-be-ment | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer) | null | null | 131.642244 | NO | fd509c709f50 |
c1m1qla5ewu | false | zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "F8KcKLPughaLSaqVMgwVcdkHTul2",
"label": "Paulith",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Rana G | i32ddLzkBWaCpO7Pv4d1 | public | contract | 1,719,429,845,799 | in-what-career-path-will-i-be-in-ju | RanaG | In what career path will @RanaG be in June 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ngw5udpf9td | false | hq2zTnPhCjfjPb1Rur0UPaKHT432 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "test",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | deleted | 3bXTsIBcw765772g1K7V | public | contract | 1,719,430,122,427 | testing-most-profitable-new-years-m | deleted2 | Testing (Most Profitable New Year's Market) | null | null | null | null | null | |
ce4qq9dr6u5 | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Jack | hv54n4zfxi | public | contract | 1,719,430,538,029 | when-will-trumps-vp-pick-be-officia | jack | When will Trump's VP pick be officially announced? | null | null | 1,117.592002 | YES | hevpias87t | |
ktu98weucqb | false | 9mfhLBysB2Skn0Pu11U95dCVrdL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Queer community is a good umbrella term, only problem is some people in the community understandably don't want to be called that. LGBTQIA+ is fine for... | Harrison Dorn | JvsPDIWmOszxi6mwv6yT | public | contract | 1,719,430,854,943 | preferred-name-variant-for-the-lgbt | HarrisonDorn | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLjhZvCf5cfyJEZoacc9XcOrfaxkk_a4fYBf-f7_AEqsyFZ5f4f_w=s96-c | Preferred name variant for the LGBT+ community? | null | null | null | null | null |
d4t6j8k6b0d | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "is announced = released? could they announce that they're releasing it in a month or something? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"t... | Bayesian | 1nxa46kwiq | public | contract | 1,719,430,957,585 | google-event-august-13-prop-bets | Bayesian | Google Event (August 13) - Prop bets | null | null | 81.039905 | YES | dcrio0cezk |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.