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4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Held: The Administrative Procedure Act requires courts to exercise their", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "independent judgment in deciding whether an agency has acted within", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "its statutory authority, and courts may not defer to an agency inter-", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "pretation of the law simply because a statute is ambiguous; Chevron is", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "overruled. Pp. 7–35", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
Go2Kmz8ybCVZ76Rl5YVO
public
contract
1,719,586,153,760
will-the-chevron-doctrine-be-overtu
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Will the Chevron Doctrine be overturned by 12/31/24
null
0.989644
9,187.194935
YES
null
2zk61sjw3pc
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves NO, they overturned the conviction: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-5572_l6hn.pdf", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-5572_l6hn.pdf", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Savior of Plant
o0igjFw0TlVicKkxETxq
public
contract
1,719,586,287,544
does-participating-in-the-january-6
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Does participating in the January 6th insurrection violate 18 USC 1512(c)(2) (SCOTUS: Fischer v US)?
null
0.09
2,621.237424
NO
null
3ltmwdep01
false
5vEowFr3rBPiRMtqc8UPhqpbHWh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Probably does, but given what I said re the resolution criteria I need to at least skim the opinion first.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matt Lashof-Sullivan
o0igjFw0TlVicKkxETxq
public
contract
1,719,586,386,809
does-participating-in-the-january-6
MattLashofSullivan
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLS04zSTXXFhgB1eacAIEE9U0EH4jKv5V55bjuYL9e-FHw=s96-c
Does participating in the January 6th insurrection violate 18 USC 1512(c)(2) (SCOTUS: Fischer v US)?
2zk61sjw3pc
0.09
142.564673
YES
null
swjq8vq28he
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "i can’t think of anything other than asking someone with plus to copy paste the prompt and share the chat here through a link. i can do it if you want.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Soli ꩜
b2jozj13on
public
contract
1,719,586,523,646
who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript?
b33gb8eqyin
null
null
null
null
u958la5kk8
false
6Q1UZ4BfBoUNAtN8KTY35joPlXi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Winner: The 24 hour news cycle", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joe and Seth
nfb8dcanr5
public
contract
1,719,586,545,509
who-won-the-june-27-2024-cnn-presid
JoeandSeth
https://firebasestorage.…d63-7cd4d86d6320
Who won the June 27, 2024 CNN Presidential debate?
null
null
null
null
null
q3vdmov8h3
false
J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You should watch it. This is something that you need to watch so that years from now you can talk competently about history.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Steve Sokolowski
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,719,586,695,441
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
SteveSokolowski
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
v9vwxb3f5td
null
1,854.111583
YES
8de9e54470a7
kpsk8odh83
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I noticed one, going through the transcript now. Do you have a timestamp by chance?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Haws
ZDorRfxLNqK4JzV8x2Sc
public
contract
1,719,586,828,141
tump-v-biden-debate-bingo
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Trump v Biden debate BINGO [First debate hosted by CNN]
4sn8syhf1cp
null
null
null
null
fssx31scb1a
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named-sf0ekb2un4", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named-sf0ekb2un4", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Savior of Plant
rvhupovwx2
public
contract
1,719,586,844,224
when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
When will a tropical storm be named Beryl in 2024?
105vxc1n2mzh
null
761.995019
YES
bk1zyo1ev5
rr5m1vb80xn
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nKlq3behIUMn0fqTY2hLvK2k5I32", "label": "Exegesis", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " can you confirm the resolution criteria? Biden was in support of NATO but did not explicitly mention \"supporting NATO\". I am in line that it should resolve NO since you put quotation notes.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Also Trumps mic only got cut when he went over time (so did Biden's). Does that count to your other question?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Haws
ZDorRfxLNqK4JzV8x2Sc
public
contract
1,719,586,949,987
tump-v-biden-debate-bingo
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Trump v Biden debate BINGO [First debate hosted by CNN]
q4kko29ls7
null
null
null
null
4aslgyqjuja
false
J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No, if Biden wants to secure a victory, his best shot is to call a press conference next week, and not only say he's not running but announce that he will be resigning on July 31. He says he fully endorses Harris, beleives she will be a great President, and says he will be engaging in a transition plan in July.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Then he has Harris come out and makes a big deal about shaking her hand and posing for pictures and lets her give brief remarks.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Any gaffes she makes during her first two weeks will be drowned out by the Olympics, as all news is. By the convention, people will see that she is a competent President, it will end any debate at the convention about replacements, and Trump can't attack her on a record because she's only been in office for a few weeks.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "All this about her bad poll numbers will go away because a group of the population will have hope. They don't care who it is, they just want someone other than Biden. Any other Democrat destroys Trump, and any other Republican destroys Biden.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Steve Sokolowski
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,719,587,057,840
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
SteveSokolowski
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
sa6196jbft
null
1,854.111583
YES
8de9e54470a7
rtf7rxh8t2h
false
5vEowFr3rBPiRMtqc8UPhqpbHWh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolving this NO, because the majority doesn't really address the possibility that I mentioned in the description: ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Will still resolve YES even if documents are somehow necessary, so long as the upshot is that substantially everyone who violently breached the Capitol would be guilty of this offense.\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "IMO there's a reasonable prospect that on remand the charge can stand (because the riot impaired access to the electoral certificates), but it seems like this is a weird way to resolve the case if they thought that was a viable theory.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matt Lashof-Sullivan
o0igjFw0TlVicKkxETxq
public
contract
1,719,587,175,766
does-participating-in-the-january-6
MattLashofSullivan
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLS04zSTXXFhgB1eacAIEE9U0EH4jKv5V55bjuYL9e-FHw=s96-c
Does participating in the January 6th insurrection violate 18 USC 1512(c)(2) (SCOTUS: Fischer v US)?
null
0.09
142.564673
YES
null
gbki1oljfbj
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hEV2GJRU5sa3PDAyh4MgwS6LXoY2", "label": "warty", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " as far as i know, he's still there, and this resolves NO?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
j5EHnWawjDncQZq7hKD3
public
contract
1,719,587,189,623
will-roon-leave-openai-before-june
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will roon leave OpenAI before June 28th 2024?
null
0.031502
2,736.154596
NO
null
j7tz31e057j
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " all resolve NO ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F8-Flbm5awl.png?alt=media&token=0d6c898e-2b71-473b-b656-0c507bb7563d", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
zwbXrvZOwdaqAfs6YlTp
public
contract
1,719,587,212,023
the-yorgoff-which-movies-will-kinds
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
The Yorg-off: Which movies will Kinds of Kindness outscore on RottenTomatoes?
null
null
455.205845
NO
fe2eea554532
3rd7hdnk0ju
false
KmmDnJMprgS91xbLmgb2lSoJe2f2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't see how this counts. Nobody was talking, then continued to talk while their mic was muted. The sentence stopped before a mute happened.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Skibiti Tea
cscjHo7n8eHj3WGH3fr3
public
contract
1,719,587,282,499
prop-bets-on-trumpbiden-debate-1
Skibiti_Tea
https://firebasestorage.…168-fa5789cb5d12
June 27th Presidential Debate Prop Bets
gdm111a6cic
null
1,025.897754
NO
unuc63q5im
kt0dkkuaf8p
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does it count if they come out in support after Biden has dropped out? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "E.g. I could imagine Kamala not saying anything, but then if Biden drops out and she steps in, it wouldn't be surprising if she said something about how she supported his decision. But that's a bit different in spirit/tone than actually coming out in support of him dropping out before he's done so.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
b7iq9ymrnf
public
contract
1,719,587,405,782
who-will-come-out-in-support-of-joe
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will come out in support of Joe Biden dropping out?
null
null
null
null
null
sceh3zkjaw
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Stacked was never going to work but their hubris pushed it to prod before considering the ux consequences. Now the people know what they have lost ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj
public
contract
1,719,587,418,280
manifold-leadership-approval-rating
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
sd3py23qzwr
null
null
null
null
f826vfjeomq
false
jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Could you add more pundits, etc? I think important figures like Obama and the potential replacements will stay mum until the moment a decision is made at which point they will all endorse it.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Michael Wheatley
b7iq9ymrnf
public
contract
1,719,587,441,249
who-will-come-out-in-support-of-joe
MichaelWheatley
https://firebasestorage.…671-d7dcd38ad23a
Who will come out in support of Joe Biden dropping out?
null
null
null
null
null
56sbmr3we8w
false
HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "anyone can add answers, be the change you wish to see :)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Conflux
b7iq9ymrnf
public
contract
1,719,587,484,028
who-will-come-out-in-support-of-joe
Conflux
https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17
Who will come out in support of Joe Biden dropping out?
f826vfjeomq
null
null
null
null
znstm4944mf
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rzqsLOz6k8PH88JIzdGmH7CmAw73", "label": "wilsonkime", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " looks like this is yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
e3lcD8sbchLNFthjkskl
public
contract
1,719,587,500,565
will-the-supreme-court-overrule-che
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will the Supreme Court overrule Chevron deference?
null
0.94
1.221326
YES
null
ksnohgepk7
false
H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Not only did prediction markets fail miserably to predict yesterday, but derivative prediction markets failed either! Kinda weird how this stuff has gone so far.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/MP/on-the-monday-before-the-election-w-b4691fe4eae2", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
MP
4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F
public
contract
1,719,587,502,413
will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
MP
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
null
0.306468
0
NO
null
1u5m0edcd1f
false
HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It must be before Biden officially announces that he is dropping out. Sorry that wasn’t clear! I’ll edit the description. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Conflux
b7iq9ymrnf
public
contract
1,719,587,522,039
who-will-come-out-in-support-of-joe
Conflux
https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17
Who will come out in support of Joe Biden dropping out?
kt0dkkuaf8p
null
null
null
null
bsiaxq5djy9
false
jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Getting hints pointing in opposite directions", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/spacex/status/1806444569107865825?s=46&t=u9hd-jMa-pv47GCVD-xH-g", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/spacex/status/1806444569107865825?s=46&t=u9hd-jMa-pv47GCVD-xH-g", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/sts1251/status/1806376121874710602", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/sts1251/status/1806376121874710602", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jess Riedel
pZ8xwkJMPBSmuoldj7YR
public
contract
1,719,587,541,910
will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-45c15ce48df3
JessRiedel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c
Will SpaceX attempt a 'catch' with the 'chopsticks' on Starship's fifth 'orbital' test flight?
null
null
null
null
null
dik50ddltgv
false
2BVjwaEP1tYvmQ1xqIRzkID5aPC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/28/supreme-court-decisions-rulings-trump-social-media-jan-6/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/28/supreme-court-decisions-rulings-trump-social-media-jan-6/", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "> The Supreme Court has finished issuing opinions for Friday. ... There are multiple other cases left to be decided this term, including whether former president Donald Trump is immune from criminal prosecution.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Corinne
J0G0be8dIdFiRgmjVwX5
public
contract
1,719,587,592,063
when-will-supreme-court-announce-de
manic_pixie_agi
https://firebasestorage.…8d0-9fdad2a36df6
When will Supreme Court announce decision on Trump’s claims of absolute presidential immunity?
null
null
2,082.204583
NO
02ad6939dd42
wn4aqjrhtds
false
sICXNtXt2dZ14BnDqkmbVisozZu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2", "label": "SteveSokolowski", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I fully intend on watching it later today! I made this comment after I got up this morning. As the debate was at 2 AM for me, I couldn’t watch it live. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jony
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,719,587,637,494
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
Jony
https://firebasestorage.…32f-ac199fffc968
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
v9vwxb3f5td
null
20,949.614043
YES
b63a17e332fe
1jioetd7v0p
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I added some clarifying language -- several paragraphs -- on the resolution. Agreed the convention challenge was unclear and not correct.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "In simple terms, market will resolve YES if Biden either 1) steps down 2) forced out. In most cases if he does, that will be acknowledged by the Biden Team. BUT there is a tiny chance that he is forced out but this is not acknowledged right away. In that case, if the Democratic Party has in fact pushed him out and said so, but Biden does not make a press conference accepting his fate... the market could still resolve YES.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "In vast majority of cases, one of two things will be clear", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": " Biden is the official presumptive nominee (yes, before the Democratic Party convention in August) -- everyone agrees", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": " Biden is no longer the nominee and everyone -- Democratic Party, Biden Team, etc -- agrees", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If there is a disagreement between Team Biden and the Democratic Party about whether Biden is the nominee... I will default to the Party. BUT them having removed Biden as the presumptive nominee has to be ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "extremely", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " clear. Rumblings or rumors or the possibility of a contested convention is not enough.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sorry the US party system is complicated. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I could have simply had resolution based on Team Biden statement. But I think this is more in the spirit of the market and clarifies the original wording that people wagered on.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Niko
w4l6r8bqau
public
contract
1,719,587,651,456
will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
null
0.29378
181.575909
NO
null
zh2hzp4g1kd
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "seems likely ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,719,587,702,590
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
sa6196jbft
null
586,193.567336
YES
e86ab6ec0ad9
pwrtcyu5j7
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sometimes an event with 5% probability happens! Something around 5% of the time, actually. If the markets placed a probability of .1% on this then we'd have 'failed miserably', but we didn't. Even polymarket moved a ton on this", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F
public
contract
1,719,587,711,210
will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
ksnohgepk7
0.306468
7,840.965022
YES
null
1je6u0hjnyh
false
9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Leclerc starting 10th for the Sprint race, couldn't get a time in. Sainz starting 5th.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Fedor
w9ahjib0a
public
contract
1,719,587,754,538
will-charles-leclerc-outscore-carlo-6s8f36lvj5
Fedor
https://firebasestorage.…d6d-1b2c6bbfbc21
Will Charles Leclerc outscore Carlos Sainz at the 2024 Formula 1 Austrian Grand Prix?
null
0.491179
30.739267
NO
null
e4v5nk44jvq
false
IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I hope they do return a verdict soon but don't think it will be by the end of day on Monday, July 1.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ken Michaels
jp0rtnr8ya
public
contract
1,719,587,788,423
the-karen-read-case-will-the-jury-r
kenmichaels
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkalbert%2FsV_slNrI7H.MP?alt=media&token=cceb6bb1-21f3-4385-9a6c-c47195b85cb9
The Karen Read case - will the jury return with a verdict before the end of the day Monday, July 1?
null
0.719163
273.824807
NO
null
krha01yrxz
false
dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thanks for the clarification!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Alex B. Goode
w4l6r8bqau
public
contract
1,719,587,873,877
will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec
AlexbGoode
https://firebasestorage.…43d-e9f8224e3fb7
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
1jioetd7v0p
null
null
null
null
cx4ix0v3xno
false
J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'd give it about 1%, but there's always hope.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "As it is, I will categorically, under no circumstances, ever vote for Joe Biden. If that means that Trump destroys the planet, then so be it. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Biden appointed Merrick Garland, who refuses to prosecute the cryptocurrency crime that is rampant. Garland needs to go, and Trump will fire him as he deserves.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Steve Sokolowski
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,719,588,078,806
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
SteveSokolowski
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
sa6196jbft
null
1,854.111583
YES
8de9e54470a7
p6whckgcs4l
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "thanks -- we try -- I try to be pretty precise on market wording and also anticipating gray area in resolution", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "in retrospect \"Team Biden statement or incapacitation\" would have been simpler ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "in any case a public dispute between the Democratic Party and Biden about whether he is the nominee seems unlikely and probably ends his likelihood or winning in practice", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "but the rumor is that Team Biden has been pretty resistant to the national party at times", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Niko
w4l6r8bqau
public
contract
1,719,588,102,951
will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
1jioetd7v0p
0.293539
181.575909
NO
null
ck8qqstedds
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FqYGOe2PJ6y.png?alt=media&token=3e648215-7d39-4d08-aeee-9cbb028cf92a", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It was an obvious buy. 5% was not accurate. A higher prob. was implied by other, more carefully traded markets. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F
public
contract
1,719,588,169,810
will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
ksnohgepk7
0.306718
0
NO
null
91y9n8elfeq
false
qJXuygUKaOPZy1CQjW2mdGO6Wpt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "See this market.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Elspeth
xbrtcHJSOhJZCZrbUUHl
public
contract
1,719,588,261,413
will-i-be-convinced-that-seed-oils
Elspeth
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2YW8OqjQHKeOg__RKSHtatt46deQK-sc3X4I5x=s96-c
Will I be convinced that seed oils are super bad for you by 2027?
null
0.324848
155.331533
YES
null
s55qzcaxfv
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That's ten cents. Not sure, but the much more traded dem nominee market was near 95%, which market are you thinking of?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F
public
contract
1,719,588,325,755
will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
ksnohgepk7
0.306718
7,840.965022
YES
null
6t7eyq1z9sx
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Of course it's ten cents. I made a few trades on the answer over several days, but it's a tiny, irrelevant market, so...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Anyway, yeah, I admit 5% actually was probably implied by dem nom market.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F
public
contract
1,719,588,464,094
will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
ksnohgepk7
0.306718
0
NO
null
v9guvishp2g
false
hXoxhZ7koFY3AfvsfcBlCr081jC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sad time for the country regardless of affiliation", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Simran 🤍
kbbn9ea4s7
public
contract
1,719,588,595,084
what-grade-110-will-i-give-bidens-p
SimranRahman
https://firebasestorage.…59c-fb117d1f5f71
What grade (1-10) will I give Biden's performance in his first 2024 presidential debate with Trump?
null
null
105.753505
YES
17skgqax5u
5ohlsgnxsgu
false
nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "DLN6fw1jcrNfU7xROjt07Iilg923", "label": "ajtalas", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Resolves; they did rule in favor of the petitioners.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23a349_0813.pdf", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23a349_0813.pdf", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/ohio-v-environmental-protection-agency/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/ohio-v-environmental-protection-agency/", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_v._Environmental_Protection_Agency", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_v._Environmental_Protection_Agency", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
SEE
zWCRxQ0rXZFSKpgXgB7g
public
contract
1,719,588,706,615
will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favo-8e04fa3e8c76
SEE
https://firebasestorage.…0d4-d49ff5ae1dfb
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of the petitioners (Ohio, et. al.) in Ohio v. Environmental Protection Agency?
null
0.989994
861.293512
YES
null
67y9suc94tb
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's the morning after the debate... and Biden has rallied to 21 cents on Polymarket. Ignoring small blips, he has been in low 20 cents range the entire time since the debate.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "To be fair only $2M more has been wagered on the election in those markets since yesterday -- a meer 1%.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We may see bigger movements over the weekend.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Niko
de6logqgzv
public
contract
1,719,588,896,932
what-will-bidens-odds-be-on-polymar
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
What will Biden's odds be on Polymarket on Monday July 1st 2024?
null
null
700.116376
NO
y7fvqtukrz
unvusrjl8o7
false
jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ok, but what if technical compromises are made and/or the planning was overly optimistic, so the final train takes 3hr? Or 4hr? There’s lots of changes that could blur the definition of “high speed rail” under the same nominal project.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jess Riedel
8oFP7ReWX5hwIm456D9z
public
contract
1,719,588,954,125
will-there-be-a-highspeed-rail-betw-317bb3adb342
JessRiedel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c
Will there be a high-speed rail between LA and SF by the end of 2040?
UUAFC6YhPbLpcmZ9GHPH
null
null
null
null
vhw5oz5vnx9
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This can resolve NO ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kevin Burke
mrjB5DiJSUe8K5Gvzrfo
public
contract
1,719,588,991,967
will-england-win-the-next-t20-world
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
Will England win the next T20 World Cup
null
null
null
null
null
e2qn8rwm4zd
false
RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A “brokered national convention” is one where the candidate is chosen at the convention by the delegates rather than beforehand based on the primaries. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FPwxe4vRwYx.png?alt=media&token=b8970bc9-c9c0-4fd0-9e1f-7bae75664eb0", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://wapo.st/3XKZN8m", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "Gift article", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Archibald Crone
QtGNEAu9Kto0wZoPEYc7
public
contract
1,719,589,040,790
if-democrats-have-a-brokered-democr
BlueDragon
https://firebasestorage.…2f3-d0594914d1a2
🫏 🇺🇸 If Democrats have a brokered Democratic convention, will it be a political disaster?
null
null
null
null
null
jlxxjhtrsfk
false
rzqsLOz6k8PH88JIzdGmH7CmAw73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Held: The Administrative Procedure Act requires courts to exercise their independent judgment in deciding whether an agency has acted within its statutory authority, and courts may not defer to an agency interpretation of the law simply because a statute is ambiguous; Chevron is overruled\" Wow ok that's not ambiguous", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Wilson Kime
e3lcD8sbchLNFthjkskl
public
contract
1,719,589,165,795
will-the-supreme-court-overrule-che
wilsonkime
https://firebasestorage.…7e6-3b1946ddd776
Will the Supreme Court overrule Chevron deference?
null
null
null
null
null
qvzcfmrygf
false
RK6Nd7IBfMVOcLekfqcN9Ys17qJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The North American conservative wave is materializing", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Peter Njeim
YaB5L4NTfzHMOq7dJrRl
public
contract
1,719,589,362,872
who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-f13eee1bee08
PeterNjeim
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKEfIjg6agfzK10gUG7Pht9z6y3O1nV87K7pQwUqKf_0HE=s96-c
Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?
null
null
23,605.237262
YES
38a9cb60e854
0apt5da999dd
false
jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't follow politics closely enough to provide reasonable options.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Michael Wheatley
b7iq9ymrnf
public
contract
1,719,589,476,814
who-will-come-out-in-support-of-joe
MichaelWheatley
https://firebasestorage.…671-d7dcd38ad23a
Who will come out in support of Joe Biden dropping out?
f826vfjeomq
null
null
null
null
2u72zywukg6
false
nKlq3behIUMn0fqTY2hLvK2k5I32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yes, the quotes would make it a direct quote. Resolve No.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
A W
ZDorRfxLNqK4JzV8x2Sc
public
contract
1,719,589,551,581
tump-v-biden-debate-bingo
Exegesis
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJDC1ewhAjvtN_WJ9gk6XMTk-YbPEG7uLzvMLdsBGyiUEA=s96-c
Trump v Biden debate BINGO [First debate hosted by CNN]
q4kko29ls7
null
69.88757
YES
1tjr3wsk0t
j185skphf0i
false
WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Long now", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno Clawfeld
EfCFXNz1qlP44vTWR2Gc
public
contract
1,719,589,650,273
gavin-newsom-stock
BrunoClawfeld
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3
Gavin Newsom stock
null
0.659166
53.040663
YES
null
v4twqcxlb4
false
nKlq3behIUMn0fqTY2hLvK2k5I32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "On the cut-off, No, I think that was in the instruction. I meant when Trump or Biden went off on a ramble and had it cut off. The question was put up before the official instructions came out though, so the instruction might muddy it a little. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
A W
ZDorRfxLNqK4JzV8x2Sc
public
contract
1,719,589,690,357
tump-v-biden-debate-bingo
Exegesis
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJDC1ewhAjvtN_WJ9gk6XMTk-YbPEG7uLzvMLdsBGyiUEA=s96-c
Trump v Biden debate BINGO [First debate hosted by CNN]
q4kko29ls7
null
69.88757
YES
1tjr3wsk0t
y2zcwni19j
false
W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You're killing it, Professor.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Frederick Norris
YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc
public
contract
1,719,589,874,264
will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the
FrederickNorris
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1nG8JLEomMagK6stKR9jLtLP2h-QTJkMxC9Qz-tJy8A=s96-c
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)
1at42jd31md
0.166594
2,550.317416
NO
null
yb648k5qnrb
false
6w0gfA9hJ5T6hqZOhyTZA2kAM913
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "⟨ch⟩ was used to transliterate Greek ⟨", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "χ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "⟩ and was pronounced [kʰ] in classical Latin, but might have become [k] by the time Μολόχ was first transliterated.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Noah
k5cx7p28q1
public
contract
1,719,589,998,745
is-moloch-pronounced-correctly-in-t
noaht2
https://firebasestorage.…1c2-72d2a8596341
Is "moloch" pronounced correctly in this song?
po68feh7doh
null
null
null
null
62y5wckhe1c
false
RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ugh I forgot I said I wouldn’t bet on this one, sorry folks, hope it helps that I won’t flinch at losing Mana on the resolution, which require me to go back through the oral arguments and decisions to see if I can tease out an assessment of each justice’s sympathies 😮‍💨. Will post proposed %s for comments before resolving. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Archibald Crone
gA6twqaIVqSVBrY4PgCg
public
contract
1,719,590,231,495
how-will-each-supreme-court-justice
BlueDragon
https://firebasestorage.…2f3-d0594914d1a2
How will each Supreme Court justice vote in the the Grants Pass appeal?
null
null
534.014248
NO
5c2a0999a7cd
tm5kwgu0a2
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For what it’s worth, Biden campaign put out a statement that he’s not dropping out, and committed to the next debate. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://deepnewz.com/politics/biden-campaign-confirms-he-drop-out-2024-race-committed-to-september-debate", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://deepnewz.com/politics/biden-campaign-confirms-he-drop-out-2024-race-committed-to-september-debate", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FXWA2dSkEnF.png?alt=media&token=50d3c980-d8ee-4989-9b71-f072c8c58f5f", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Niko
w4l6r8bqau
public
contract
1,719,590,389,220
will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
null
0.270313
181.575909
NO
null
115atkbz619g
false
jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FIGky6xEVmC.png?alt=media&token=6d4e873f-8a8d-4f4b-96af-b23daf785e48", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "^This is the kind of thing I was thinking of. Any other prominent pundits out there who haven't already done it already?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Michael Wheatley
b7iq9ymrnf
public
contract
1,719,590,390,360
who-will-come-out-in-support-of-joe
MichaelWheatley
https://firebasestorage.…671-d7dcd38ad23a
Who will come out in support of Joe Biden dropping out?
f826vfjeomq
null
null
null
null
3uw3bphstbi
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Biden team announced record fundraising haul in the hour after the debate. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kevin Burke
CtXGJjpdV1ko1H6Rfu2v
public
contract
1,719,590,579,472
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n-cccae55809bb
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
0.77
1,076.37725
NO
null
dkaxa8pvbpc
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Biden team announce record fundraising haul in the hour after the debate ended. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kevin Burke
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,590,602,409
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
0.694088
18,820.838153
YES
null
8vq1x36qb2r
false
ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Really?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Craig Talbert
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,590,737,550
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
CraigTalbert
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
dkaxa8pvbpc
0.701301
175.57437
NO
null
33baq7qtzh7
false
wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "His last post was “BIG WIN!” I think this is non-negotiably referring to the debate", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Charlie Bauer
zguwq4erjy
public
contract
1,719,590,896,951
will-trump-claim-on-truth-social-th
CharlieBauer
https://storage.googleap…Mt2zdsjlg8k1.png
Will Trump claim on Truth Social that he won the debate within 24 hours of it ending?
null
0.89
580.956603
YES
null
vp2j270pgjs
false
F8KcKLPughaLSaqVMgwVcdkHTul2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Burgum too low. Who else has as much money?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Paul
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,719,591,106,126
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
Paulith
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIHa4Skn6HHsMqDfZwL6acec4VIUrcwGzztbvQ_mhU63A=s96-c
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
null
null
6,371.429668
YES
93a1f2f817df
8n68w8mftzf
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Overreactions trashed my leagues standing just before the end of the month", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Plasma Ballin'
rmqowryzty
public
contract
1,719,591,178,272
is-manifold-overreacting-or-underre
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Is Manifold overreacting or underreacting after the first presidential debate on CNN (compared to next month)?
null
null
223.353245
YES
zxz1jbf7lu
q2aiyv59mgd
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does this resolve to a poll?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
x9l3hbf0u4
public
contract
1,719,591,309,504
which-number-is-the-biggest
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Which number is the biggest?
null
null
null
null
null
c26lzwdaci8
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think they’re overreacting to the idea that Biden will step aside before the election. Probably properly calibrated to the idea he’ll lose", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kevin Burke
rmqowryzty
public
contract
1,719,591,321,801
is-manifold-overreacting-or-underre
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
Is Manifold overreacting or underreacting after the first presidential debate on CNN (compared to next month)?
null
null
null
null
null
sd7cx6ht7ln
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1806709128359747958", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1806709128359747958", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kevin Burke
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,591,406,949
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
dkaxa8pvbpc
0.682083
18,820.838153
YES
null
bvx8e3u4up9
false
vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No way. At THIS point? He'd have to keel over or something. The nomination is all wrapped up! They'd end up with a contested convention and there's no way they'd do that", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Marnix
w4l6r8bqau
public
contract
1,719,591,757,870
will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec
Marnix
https://firebasestorage.…d53-a4e0da9e141d
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
null
0.236843
322.283599
NO
null
x6rbo3v9it7
false
3WfCg9X8JHXOzdc4fwNyapF3wAa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This resolves to whatever I think is the biggest, but yall are able to try and change my mind before it happens.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gabriel Tellez
x9l3hbf0u4
public
contract
1,719,591,822,178
which-number-is-the-biggest
GabrielTellez
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7DMpNFr5hrYguTVGKWEOzj5FB-9HYE3YJVy4A9=s96-c
Which number is the biggest?
q2aiyv59mgd
null
null
null
null
3r3x5ijpp1h
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We should ideally be able to toggle it on/off if it's causing lagging", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj
public
contract
1,719,591,854,884
manifold-leadership-approval-rating
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
sd3py23qzwr
0.392969
25.854569
YES
null
c8ggreb80fd
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Large differences between this market and other markets that ask the same question ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kevin Burke
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,591,856,078
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
0.688899
18,820.838153
YES
null
75288hoxrki
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If biggest = cardinality, then 4i+19", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If biggest = magnitude, then -98i", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If you count infinity as a real number rather than an undefined limit, then 1/0", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
x9l3hbf0u4
public
contract
1,719,592,006,443
which-number-is-the-biggest
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Which number is the biggest?
q2aiyv59mgd
null
25.981816
YES
knoi6n57l1
x7qfn2kzeo
false
VutNSM1pulf0iLjFlNUtgVLKUzr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Interesting to compare the relatively mild effects of the monthlong Trump trial and conviction on this market vs 90 minutes of live, unscripted Joe Biden", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
mjh
4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F
public
contract
1,719,592,056,877
will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
meh
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmeh%2F-FCJ_xuzNs.59?alt=media&token=6f5d7b9a-38c0-4956-b7fc-6f1795ead647
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
null
0.295887
660.345726
NO
null
xf00d17wgul
false
12ztXVGfibSZaCDnGndN40PKUIO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolve time?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Paul
28N6FFhIpP47klfDeDJk
public
contract
1,719,592,159,805
will-cnn-say-cnn
Paul
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GivsAmgOWywNYNzHSwlvq95nQAGKHiFjTR4-W0NRg=s96-c
Will CNN say CNN?
null
0.01
1,028.146171
NO
null
na73u7f72fl
false
KukaIffKZlc5LPbgOkXqORgapLe2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "generational bottom", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
gmbleawy
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,592,311,933
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
gmbleawy
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdOPub8HgywYNaNmomTkUEqKE8rUJG2F62FWRe0izck6ts=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
0.701686
4,216.386876
YES
null
1aqlwkvii4r
false
Q9XCF79f7JgZF8itYw5uDJg3Whm2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "He's been senile for at least 4.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
blankspace737
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,719,592,366,531
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
stardust
https://firebasestorage.…901-b7160011e796
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
031p98xcstt2
null
4,954.136811
YES
33b8f3dc81b9
jlldrwms5ki
false
rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Any suggestion on what to change to make it more consistent?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
blue rat
xx7p9h263z
public
contract
1,719,592,488,881
will-there-be-another-jan-6th-if-bi
bluerat
https://firebasestorage.…d80-4da51f53b651
Will there be another Jan 6th if biden is elected?
symlvpjfwn
null
null
null
null
oydn70wrnl
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Added it to the description to improve search. Thanks for letting us know ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Edit: it’s a minor improvement but still bad tbh, there is so many other markets using that terminology ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Genzy
QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ
public
contract
1,719,592,661,499
who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
juoork0wk8
null
null
null
null
52bcyf527ij
false
qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "trump won. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Montana_Republican_presidential_primary", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Montana_Republican_presidential_primary", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Agh
ZnjiBA0Lus0gUPjR0n9z
public
contract
1,719,592,839,673
if-trump-is-still-in-the-race-will-a47198c9fdec
Agh
https://firebasestorage.…96a-92c3aadf6a66
If Trump is still in the race, will Nikki Haley win the 2024 Montana Republican presidential primary?
null
0.010911
1,200.387463
NO
null
dcqwhsritp
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So i'd be correct in saying both of those resolve NO?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Haws
ZDorRfxLNqK4JzV8x2Sc
public
contract
1,719,592,862,305
tump-v-biden-debate-bingo
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Trump v Biden debate BINGO [First debate hosted by CNN]
q4kko29ls7
null
null
null
null
g5as38htbm7
false
paSfJTDtuvMbEpPIgbGqYbyjGcK2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This issue has at least 2 distinct factions. Nvidia investors and everyone else. /S", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gerald Monroe
YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc
public
contract
1,719,592,911,365
will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the
GeraldMonroe
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7_iM4oqZJF9eghCdFvn1JlEer7wAETJMYp_J2P=s96-c
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)
oo533n25ix8
0.174359
179.201383
YES
null
2xapd9ivbst
false
qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Update in about an hour", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-boeing-to-provide-commercial-crew-space-station-update/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-boeing-to-provide-commercial-crew-space-station-update/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
robm
lwTN4mEB9rHSs9OiJLTJ
public
contract
1,719,592,955,538
will-boeings-starliner-return-with
robm
https://firebasestorage.…c2d-4d0e2a793adf
Will Boeing's Starliner return with an astronaut?
null
0.90654
0
NO
null
ymwfgrk67d
false
s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Last night, the American people are hugging the children and crying for the safety of the nation. It is pure chaos and destructions in the streets of the America we know today, this man is very sleepy at the job and the people are sobbing and praying for him. The nation is needing the energizing and we need the help from this scary elder man.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Quantum Gambler
4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F
public
contract
1,719,593,023,873
will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
Mirek
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
x7qfn2kzeo
0.3
821.984527
YES
null
0sdz09qv3mig
false
8xOBbiqjnXVINbig3kXAp3XzEJs2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I used loans to bet more than my net worth on this question.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Professor Wrongo
YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc
public
contract
1,719,593,060,002
will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the
WrongoPhD
https://firebasestorage.…2dc-e6155b953de0
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)
1at42jd31md
0.174359
118,134.380196
NO
null
6rajplw39rq
false
oNShNEPoPcYuHlt1qLDI4h0aanq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ppl saying just see results really can't admit to themselves lollll", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Riley
nfb8dcanr5
public
contract
1,719,593,102,411
who-won-the-june-27-2024-cnn-presid
Riley12
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJGeBzVZ_qeAFxPlHJlOK7i-rFKw0rHA8xyQd0CcpRW-w=s96-c
Who won the June 27, 2024 CNN Presidential debate?
null
null
null
null
null
wzzl7im8xp
false
H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "One of many problems with the Michele thesis is that she doesn't want to be the POTUS.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MP
QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ
public
contract
1,719,593,108,370
who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38
MP
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf
Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
731su14xmjw
null
28,205.89179
NO
74d0a1d62039
9rztut6i07i
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "WARNING: WATCH YOUR BETS. A LOT OF THESE RESOLVE ON VERBATIM COMMENTS. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The debate is over and some are voting on resolutions that may be in contest. Giving everyone now the chance to correct your bet before I resolve some.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "One still in standing is my own: Biden goes off on 2 or more non-sense tangents", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I have identified 1 so far, looking to confirm a 2nd or more in the transcript. This may take some more time to resolve.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thanks for participating, ABC debate question is already up: ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Haws/trump-v-biden-debate-bingo-second-d?r=SGF3cw", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Haws
ZDorRfxLNqK4JzV8x2Sc
public
contract
1,719,593,210,327
tump-v-biden-debate-bingo
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Trump v Biden debate BINGO [First debate hosted by CNN]
null
null
50.062967
NO
so36daaxc7
wveib9vdwya
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " the Renoir bidding war was so intense that Sotheby's posted it as a standalone video on their YT channel! ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/KWDsMHuzexU", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
t1aqjxiynz
public
contract
1,719,593,278,278
shortfuse-renoir-vs-rego-which-pain
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
[short-fuse] RENOIR vs REGO: which painting will sell for more at the Sotheby's auction? (pics included)
null
null
32,512.199952
YES
vs30vfcd4l
mgh3majlcy
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I mean… Nate had Trump at 30% in 2016 which would have resolved NO by this criteria even though 538 gave Trump a better chance than basically anyone.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kevin Burke
e4zvpmwbmu
public
contract
1,719,593,322,990
will-nate-silvers-model-correctly-p
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
Will Nate Silver’s model correctly predict the election?
null
null
null
null
null
xfxurgt8bos
false
nKlq3behIUMn0fqTY2hLvK2k5I32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolve - No for both.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
A W
ZDorRfxLNqK4JzV8x2Sc
public
contract
1,719,593,354,297
tump-v-biden-debate-bingo
Exegesis
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJDC1ewhAjvtN_WJ9gk6XMTk-YbPEG7uLzvMLdsBGyiUEA=s96-c
Trump v Biden debate BINGO [First debate hosted by CNN]
q4kko29ls7
null
69.88757
YES
1tjr3wsk0t
8f7m3gw1nde
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "appreciate the confirmation! Thanks for adding these!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Haws
ZDorRfxLNqK4JzV8x2Sc
public
contract
1,719,593,372,743
tump-v-biden-debate-bingo
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Trump v Biden debate BINGO [First debate hosted by CNN]
q4kko29ls7
null
50.062967
NO
so36daaxc7
d2s83e502cd
false
66e69xtuxcaOANdzvof19Vm4HFL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fl4qO6cJD7g.jpeg?alt=media&token=92cbf8b7-fa1c-45e3-8906-a2b4c35cf6f1", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "CoeMNUk0b7WouGke4R8dCMXg7Ox2", "label": "Carrotcake", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Sorry to be nitpicking about timezones but, can you clarify whether you are resolving this literally by \"CST\" (UTC -6) or if by \"Central Time\" (CDT during DST and CST during standard time)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
HoldingC
am8jfkzrz1
public
contract
1,719,593,382,410
will-elon-musk-make-2-or-more-tweet-qbcfvz1byc
HoldingC
https://firebasestorage.…f05-2324bda7e40b
Will Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts "today" between 9am to 9pm CST
null
null
34.311763
YES
zxtlmbvhdf
y3yhne28r6f
false
uKcjazFwIkhMFvhie6cnANL8MTV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Giving 1/0 any value, including \"infinity\", means that multiplication no longer has a zero. That's a little bit of breakage.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Karl K.
x9l3hbf0u4
public
contract
1,719,593,523,292
which-number-is-the-biggest
KarlK
https://firebasestorage.…e18-995693e838cc
Which number is the biggest?
q2aiyv59mgd
null
null
null
null
bpyuw01ga9h
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "what do you mean by no longer having a zero?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
x9l3hbf0u4
public
contract
1,719,593,659,080
which-number-is-the-biggest
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Which number is the biggest?
q2aiyv59mgd
null
25.981816
YES
knoi6n57l1
zo8tiy2expp
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
p19hZA69psnbLNkDIVwH
public
contract
1,719,593,941,575
will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-3fac85a96dcd
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of October?
null
null
null
null
null
n942wokldvo
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "debate bump", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
R3a7GxrB11JRxfUES3F3
public
contract
1,719,593,953,721
will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-fd2e84e1158d
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of July?
null
null
null
null
null
8yo3upan58e
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "debate bump", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
2izhMMUtGuQ5V3tRlwB6
public
contract
1,719,593,956,657
will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-93a66f5dbdb7
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of August?
null
null
null
null
null
qbj0xxacmz
false
339jQjoZlzL0ToxQAWUC72ojZ0s2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I would find this surprising -- to my knowledge this isn't standard practice; and I can't see why she would be a particularly enticing SC pick, other than being mixed-race (which is certainly a factor, if ?sotomayor were to retire). Maybe I'm underating the symbolic import of her not being seen as 'failing' as a VP, were Biden to select another running mate", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joe Boyle
zczan6uzy3
public
contract
1,719,594,145,342
will-kamala-harris-be-appointed-to
JoeBoyle
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJb_agY-aZG_4gAzTtubwx6017XMVq5RMokc-jJSwJhunE=s96-c
Will Kamala Harris be appointed to another government position, such as Supreme Court Justice, before the Nov. election?
null
0.354419
406.013171
NO
null
0nc253udql4l
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thanks to everyone for trading 🧡 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This questions resolves YES because of this post:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112695002117892889", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112695002117892889", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lion
zguwq4erjy
public
contract
1,719,594,403,640
will-trump-claim-on-truth-social-th
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
Will Trump claim on Truth Social that he won the debate within 24 hours of it ending?
null
0.948512
0
YES
null
3qoshyab1vd
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thanks ❤ ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lion
zguwq4erjy
public
contract
1,719,594,420,025
will-trump-claim-on-truth-social-th
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
Will Trump claim on Truth Social that he won the debate within 24 hours of it ending?
33baq7qtzh7
0.948512
0
YES
null
y42s8nf87g
false
faAZQRWR2YTPZJAYEXhw56ydDHL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This will never happen. Either they raise contributions or cut benefits", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris Mills
mv0bubtdim
public
contract
1,719,594,678,129
will-social-security-become-insolve
ChrisMillsc5f7
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLmttkO7a_SkKKmgvJV_wh3BtRxvZZxf0PCf1Z7MbCn=s96-c
Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?
null
null
null
null
null
10lyfa7kfaqp
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "🫂 Lol, feel you so much 🙃 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lion
rmqowryzty
public
contract
1,719,594,689,533
is-manifold-overreacting-or-underre
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
Is Manifold overreacting or underreacting after the first presidential debate on CNN (compared to next month)?
8n68w8mftzf
null
782.638066
NO
zxz1jbf7lu
kot7ri4x77m
false
HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "hmm, I’m not sure", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Conflux
b7iq9ymrnf
public
contract
1,719,594,731,886
who-will-come-out-in-support-of-joe
Conflux
https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17
Who will come out in support of Joe Biden dropping out (before it happens)?
f826vfjeomq
null
null
null
null
6bwzlyo93b7
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "🤔", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
w4xtqxtjlq
public
contract
1,719,594,887,025
will-a-sitting-democrat-congressper
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will a sitting Democrat Congressperson call for Biden to drop out of the election by the end of September?
null
null
null
null
null
63khbv7mtdm
false
ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I think what they mean is that if 1/0 = thing, then thing * 0 = 1, so multiplication with zero would cease to make sense. Additionally, it would lead to the conclusion that infinity = - infinity", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "In any case, even if you count infinity as some number you can do math with, I don't think 1/0 is the answer because the limit of 1/0 would depend on how you approach 0", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stark
x9l3hbf0u4
public
contract
1,719,595,084,174
which-number-is-the-biggest
StarkLN
https://firebasestorage.…b7b-8e8f10700842
Which number is the biggest?
q2aiyv59mgd
null
null
null
null