id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2 classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2 values | commentType stringclasses 1 value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2 values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9efrczae4g | false | HLgyulVrkGNPH4K7WHM1Tz25lR12 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F7FO7hxbwZQ.jpg?alt=media&token=526fc24f-406d-4f43-b6b4-54b57f6e0fa1",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Matt F | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,556,237,604 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | MattF | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYf96igKYDAeeCDmrp2xMBcvOR_WlVaHNpyCQbonQ=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | null | null | null | null |
5t6rxhj1n2x | false | LuoZHHMyLXTbNqDfr8uN65lbala2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The concept of abolishing the Presidency won the debate ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jon Creagle | nfb8dcanr5 | public | contract | 1,719,556,503,604 | who-won-the-june-27-2024-cnn-presid | Creagle | Who won the June 27, 2024 CNN Presidential debate? | null | null | null | null | null | |
fng1hhnvurd | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Oh yeah we have to rely on Biden having enough shame and self awareness to cast the ring into the fire I mean refuse the nomination and pick his own replacement. Good luck with that",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonathan Ray | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,556,513,576 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | JonathanRay | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 7qxw7pv5qok | 0.766996 | 2,086,380.434276 | YES | null | |
kmy455ndab9 | false | KAbP0CmosDXG5PuUvG08PqFZ6By2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Add Kroos",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jakob | uQoXxG5ca7Y2mii0Jq35 | public | contract | 1,719,556,676,738 | who-will-win-the-player-of-the-tour | Jakob | Who will win the Player of the Tournament award at EURO 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
vscvvfzbqy | false | MjPBa3pLDhMFI3f3kZJVMlSP66h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "GPT-4 finished training in Summer 2022; Microsoft started testing it in Bing in late 2022. So, for Kevin Scott personally, it probably does feel like roughly two years ago. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "That said, you've got one of the most important people in the development of GPT-5 straight up telling you with no uncertainty in his words that the 'next breakthrough' is coming this year, and somehow you manage to conclude from this that it's happening in March 2025? Seems crazy to me. I think Scott saying it's happening in 2024 is very strong evidence.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | majorj | RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM | public | contract | 1,719,557,115,495 | will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025 | majorj | Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? | i3dxmosx8s8 | 0.489253 | 4,904.078872 | YES | null | |
by2mlon2784 | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Deep convection has stopped for the last few hours and shear increasing around 40W making it less likely to develop. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FSTSGK8i2-2.gif?alt=media&token=e096f4b9-4292-463e-bbd8-e744ed831581",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "GFS/00Z also doesn’t show a warm core until 29/00Z cutting it perhaps too close..",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F_lWE5b_3Xk.png?alt=media&token=6430c55c-4eb4-4929-a34b-bef36e72918a",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JRP | rvhupovwx2 | public | contract | 1,719,557,187,020 | when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named | parhizj | When will a tropical storm be named Beryl in 2024? | null | null | 1,040.247104 | NO | 9ibihrp8y4 | |
2uz3ei5rf9g | false | emRNR82UsUQObGGWfgsggFXAqG83 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Gemini might be a better option since it has large context. Would be cool to try on video too, although idk how much it costs. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | nikstar | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,557,274,485 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | nikstar | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | null | null | null | null | null | |
msslbd6k3m | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F0uvSYhS2r1.png?alt=media&token=a778658c-0bf1-46bf-bba3-8f42c264a4ac",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | srtH0vZbB15pnT7ezJTn | public | contract | 1,719,557,370,524 | who-will-be-1-in-masters-league-for | Ziddletwix | Who will be #1 in Masters League for any amount of time in the first half of 2024? | null | null | 1,019.150551 | NO | 5d3cc4150edc | |
shid8bes02t | false | xUtrUGODfpNLau1BiORD5kc4WDk2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "My understanding is that only Biden could decide to withdraw as the delegates are pledged to him. There are very few people in American history (LBJ is the only one that I can think of) who have willingly given up the chance to gain/maintain the amount of political power at stake. Biden withdrawing at this stage would lead to a divisive convention. This is a hard call, there are strong arguments for either case, so I expect the status quo (Biden on the ticket) to prevail as most of Biden's advisors will favor the status quo that at least has a chance of keeping them close to power rather than the aides of another potential Democratic candidate.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Gregory Gandy | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,557,374,427 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | GregoryG | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJk8lsbk-f2m4kJDhQqkhhilSCWuo2VK0x7cfODXR99WA=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.682441 | 12,966.828672 | YES | null |
donb9e6q16o | false | 2FMogQwA0OUT6iqcbsq8EMtW3yw2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " you put up $100 to my $10 at manifest that biden would be the nominee. I'll let it close now for 30,000 mana, if you're interested 🙃 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | spider | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,557,488,653 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | spider | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.700533 | 0 | YES | null | |
ygh78f3r8ff | false | MjPBa3pLDhMFI3f3kZJVMlSP66h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This guy ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/btibor91/status/1798749440007962983",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/btibor91/status/1798749440007962983",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " datamined the launch post for the prototype of searchgpt. I've never seen him be wrong!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": false,
"id": "de0364c5-6377-4039-b8e3-3242164948c5",
"image": null,
"inputKey": "comment JzLGzwrROhzmSFQ6uv8Dcomment, repost ",
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": "x.com",
"tweetId": null,
"url": "https://x.com/btibor91/status/1798749440007962983"
},
"content": null,
"type": "linkPreview"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | majorj | JzLGzwrROhzmSFQ6uv8D | public | contract | 1,719,557,490,605 | will-openai-release-a-competitor-to | majorj | Will OpenAI release a competitor to Google Search before 2025? | null | 0.398573 | 1,673.937333 | YES | null | |
ndcef0i6xe | false | 5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "😱",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ismellpillows | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,557,977,305 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | ismellpillows | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | donb9e6q16o | null | null | null | null | |
14b4l8jnxc2c | false | ftnUW1Afv2cFy0ivZsbjYr6rI4l2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Need clarity here ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "JPwHdAnHazaPUFmW1DJ3MmLy7Iq2",
"label": "neweconomicplan",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | tjd | OzQ98blOASYf60lphBXO | public | contract | 1,719,558,106,889 | will-50-of-all-new-car-sales-in-the | twink_joan_didion | Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030? | 330zyqv4dnv | 0.533513 | 1,500.382906 | NO | null | |
uzhu2esk0ot | false | JljMq9ITGFVYhXqKk1oS1MtmXf83 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Updated ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mr_mino | 8P8ClPth83h5a6xE7rHh | public | contract | 1,719,558,320,953 | how-often-will-i-study-chess-this-m | mr_mino | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIhpVDFQAVKbt-9Od9WSi01Lp_CQJnMybA5BxSxLa6a=s96-c | How often will I study chess this month? June 2024 Edition | btterjfctm9 | null | null | null | null |
ftlbge9ei0k | false | W2xr0kmXVqg4SzEQltvfpWOsAFO2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I don't see how the debates can influence the odds that much. Do people even watch them anymore?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Gracious | p66tCcsTNxSKuJQd0jKi | public | contract | 1,719,558,601,427 | who-will-win-2024-us-presidential-e | GG | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | null | null | null | null | |
pg6zzbm3mp | false | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "People are overexcited and wildly overcorrecting, same as when that article suggesting Biden step down came out a couple months ago",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Tumbles ♠︎ Meme Rising | p66tCcsTNxSKuJQd0jKi | public | contract | 1,719,558,718,215 | who-will-win-2024-us-presidential-e | Tumbles | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | ftlbge9ei0k | null | 98,395.969414 | YES | cb67fedb1c9e | |
1475brxc0suh | false | j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yeah, given that Trump is also quite old, it may be strategic on his part to specifically ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "not",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " go after Biden as “old”, but to instead focus on the “incoherent”/“unfit” angle in a way that can’t be turned back on himself so easily.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jim Hays | cscjHo7n8eHj3WGH3fr3 | public | contract | 1,719,558,747,036 | prop-bets-on-trumpbiden-debate-1 | JimHays | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5OSur1iRh2XJCBqWybZBd64MFALBZbO6xjTAxCmAM=s96-c | June 27th Presidential Debate Prop Bets | 3wr4jhpp50i | null | 467.441165 | YES | 5776326d9108 |
xwbrtz1tmse | false | G4JTSx4yXAYll9JkJOj0z0qNNBt1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Do you mean specifically for trans people? I expect it will remain legal for cis people.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jessica Evans | BmKsQSn9pP6FaFFatWzn | public | contract | 1,719,559,093,068 | will-hormone-replacement-therapy-be | JessicaEvans | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c | Will hormone replacement therapy be generally legal for adults in at least 40 US states as of March 01, 2025? | null | 0.744014 | 95.82934 | NO | null |
dsg6lqi4hk | false | TT1l9ShzJoOAgCjgvqyKZprNrap2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Does redscare catholic count? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Paul Han | DHGzkbRsfbCUIlz5bf0w | public | contract | 1,719,559,130,692 | will-i-aella-convert-to-christianit | PaulHan | Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028? | null | null | null | null | null | |
pxp6iytua3d | false | y5epDloYrxdc6yqnC1VjnTuVCal2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Manifold being overwhelmingly blue resulted in willful blindness about how bad Biden's mental performance actually is.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bair | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,559,318,904 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | Bair | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYUvh0DyDuiAdCtqW5aBt7A1JYDjm0gzHvntw_W5g=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | v9vwxb3f5td | null | 609,611.335382 | YES | d827ecde0e0b |
w7wxmiuins9 | false | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This market still thinks that Trump has 56% to lose the election...",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Oleg Eterevsky | JeHDbCusfs6qZumDrzRD | public | contract | 1,719,559,362,823 | if-trump-wins-in-2024-how-will-it-a | OlegEterevsky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election? | null | null | null | null | null |
9hgc3tsi94s | false | vcRnogNTojb2z8RejfxaYDwYs6B3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I agree",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | A. Dings | cscjHo7n8eHj3WGH3fr3 | public | contract | 1,719,559,385,731 | prop-bets-on-trumpbiden-debate-1 | ADings | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKyQmiXuUz7vNTKFEGxzvoGhgYnrN03vcCFlsSwpc7SDg=s96-c | June 27th Presidential Debate Prop Bets | 19yhn8rmaqu | null | 87.625923 | NO | 104c42332497 |
qe0hw9ywxjr | false | 9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think a lot of people could outperform Biden in a capability way, he's too old. Also, the only person who can cause a different nominee to be selected is Biden, and then they have to select someone else who everyone agrees on. Biden won't do it, the democrats won't do it.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Fedor | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,559,606,565 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | Fedor | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 7qxw7pv5qok | 0.73 | 18,717.502476 | YES | null | |
rif0jlhy9xg | false | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In the unlikely event there is a ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "statistical",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " tie, that would mean that the model can’t predict who will win.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think in this case the market should just resolve NO.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Counterpoints?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Archibald Crone | e4zvpmwbmu | public | contract | 1,719,559,804,633 | will-nate-silvers-model-correctly-p | BlueDragon | Will Nate Silver’s model correctly predict the election? | fil8atdl4r | null | null | null | null | |
031ai9s4wkba | false | 9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think he's really really old, I also think he's still going to be the candidate and stand a decent chance of winning, because that's what the election system results in.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Fedor | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,559,811,022 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | Fedor | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | v9vwxb3f5td | null | 6,162.052068 | NO | 088d6b2862b1 | |
n7o8fwh1e7 | false | HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Lol",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Bandors | kbbn9ea4s7 | public | contract | 1,719,559,921,750 | what-grade-110-will-i-give-bidens-p | TimothyBandors | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c | What grade (1-10) will I give Biden's performance in his first 2024 presidential debate with Trump? | v00cxhajl9g | null | 28.342819 | YES | 2lkq6n4nc1 |
jyz28g2klz | false | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Clearly, that's the idea behind the header tanks, but they haven't tested it. I'm not sure they are going to get a flight license for an orbital flight before they demonstrate the capability to control de-orbit.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Oleg Eterevsky | 9T2V7uRgbU3dgzzrI7AG | public | contract | 1,719,560,228,659 | when-will-spacex-starship-reach-orb | OlegEterevsky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | When will Starship complete an orbit? | vrwmzndonsq | null | null | null | null |
20r6j025x4j | false | frBevxJ79zNClZg2d9H8m0gLLIW2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Oof, thanks",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mana | 8P8ClPth83h5a6xE7rHh | public | contract | 1,719,560,346,150 | how-often-will-i-study-chess-this-m | Mana | How often will I study chess this month? June 2024 Edition | btterjfctm9 | 0.74 | 0 | YES | null | |
qvqu1bn0ni | false | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Seems more relevant than ever after yesterday’s debate….",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Archibald Crone | QtGNEAu9Kto0wZoPEYc7 | public | contract | 1,719,560,443,580 | if-democrats-have-a-brokered-democr | BlueDragon | 🫏 🇺🇸 If Democrats have a brokered Democratic convention, will it be a political disaster? | null | null | null | null | null | |
6948zfvj7e | false | 91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Could the mods knock out:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is, or will be, in favour of banning sex robots",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Dislike for lab-grown/cultivated/cultured meat",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Both of these seem to me to be trivial, for the reason that they are policy questions that conservativism as a whole has already taken a side on.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | PhilosophyBear | tr9b02u0f5 | public | contract | 1,719,560,457,637 | what-weird-unexpected-things-will-c | PhilosophyBear | What weird unexpected things will correlate with being a conservative in my planned omnibus correlational survey? | null | null | null | null | null | |
41p7yupb59o | false | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "😆 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jim | kbbn9ea4s7 | public | contract | 1,719,561,072,696 | what-grade-110-will-i-give-bidens-p | jim | What grade (1-10) will I give Biden's performance in his first 2024 presidential debate with Trump? | v00cxhajl9g | null | 808.598224 | YES | gcseenzaf0 | |
duv8qwn8zbd | false | wfiuw0M6D5XAvlVRy1NUscfLcr53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "why gpt 3.5 if 4o is free? (and, if money weren't an issue, i'd say use the api with temperature 0 for reproducibility)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | hecko | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,561,082,789 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | hecko | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | null | null | null | null | null | |
w9skj2pgs5 | false | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I've accumulated a very large no position for a few reasons.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "1: Biden lowers the odds of Dems winning by a substantial amount. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "2: Dems really, really want to beat trump.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "3: The general Dem apparatus is actually very pragmatic and good at politics, much better than the Republican apparatus. (I think this is probably very controversial but won't try to justify it here for the sake of time)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Given these 3 premises, it logically follows that Dems would probably try to replace him.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Now, for him to ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "actually",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " be replaced requires him to acquiesce to this pressure and recognize that he is causing Trump to win. There is no way for the Dems to do a coup against him, it must be him voluntarily stepping down. This is a much harder lift, especially with the delusions we hear from Biden people, which is why I thought this was more like 90% instead of 40%. But I think that if we see a material shift in the polls from the debate, even Biden can recognize that he is probably worse than other candidates, so if he really cares about beating Trump, which I think he does, he would drop.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Semiotic Rivalry | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,561,228,646 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | SemioticRivalry | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 7qxw7pv5qok | 0.74681 | 916,247.902342 | NO | null | |
gwlv7ammb5t | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "A lot of markets will stay inaccurate for a few days since the price movements are recent. good observation tho, ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | JeHDbCusfs6qZumDrzRD | public | contract | 1,719,562,285,646 | if-trump-wins-in-2024-how-will-it-a | Bayesian | If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election? | w7wxmiuins9 | null | 721.581429 | YES | xdmw6tt596 | |
wkgii4hvftr | false | TIxZM2CkXrVafA9OnTLLpSo1W0s2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3",
"label": "DavidBolin",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Oz gaffed on abortion. I don't think Trump made any major blunders that could be used in an ad tonight.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | riverwalk3 | l6vOZFr7LZ3KRsszwDHp | public | contract | 1,719,562,381,674 | will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p-22b14142a89a | riverwalk3 | Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of July? (538) | d1ls3rq9k9l | null | null | null | null | |
kt3wljph9mf | false | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This market could be affected by the possibility of Biden withdrawing his candidacy, since it only asks about Trump's chances. But still it gave Trump much lower chances than other markets.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Oleg Eterevsky | JeHDbCusfs6qZumDrzRD | public | contract | 1,719,562,411,980 | if-trump-wins-in-2024-how-will-it-a | OlegEterevsky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election? | w7wxmiuins9 | null | null | null | null |
yav2s64wh1 | false | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "He won the Poker Player's Championship. The event is one of the highlights of the series, and it's the first WSOP bracelet he's won in like forever. Congratulations to Daniel. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I haven't checked his tally, but the prize he won was $ 1,178,703, so I presume he's now positive for the series and likely to remain that way. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jim | kxOpTzGQ0adHaf46bkMy | public | contract | 1,719,562,961,021 | will-daniel-negreanu-make-a-profit | jim | Will Daniel Negreanu make a profit playing the WSOP 2024? | null | 0.6 | 1,999.94193 | NO | null | |
jg5bw0aky8j | false | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " To make the priorities of the answers clearer I enumerated them in the order in which they will be checked. This shouldn't change the resolution rules at all, just makes them clearer and removes the need for the long description section regarding which options win over which.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Oleg Eterevsky | JeHDbCusfs6qZumDrzRD | public | contract | 1,719,562,987,864 | if-trump-wins-in-2024-how-will-it-a | OlegEterevsky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election? | null | null | null | null | null |
uh1vuiqwz8 | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I don't see this at all in the official transcript: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/read-biden-trump-debate-rush-transcript/index.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "READ: Biden-Trump debate rush transcript | CNN Politics.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | ZDorRfxLNqK4JzV8x2Sc | public | contract | 1,719,563,100,715 | tump-v-biden-debate-bingo | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Trump v Biden debate BINGO [First debate hosted by CNN] | null | null | null | null | null |
l1uwd00s1tn | false | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1806455085150458355",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1806455085150458355",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lion | 6VwJ6xRRYSfenLQyFTzf | public | contract | 1,719,563,524,957 | what-topics-or-who-will-elon-musk-t-0a7be0e1f6ef | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before July 4th? [ADD YOUR OWN] | null | null | 0 | YES | 8e9d07a81f93 |
gkxg95s1b7 | false | 7cHLitSmqdYIvr3OskswGMzWX103 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yes",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Dan Homerick | 483un7g09i | public | contract | 1,719,563,809,338 | what-will-be-true-about-spacexs-deo | DanHomerick | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLP4VSkxqlzJSD6sryGpPRfqkVJjAt25wLa6ZsgWUJ30DI=s96-c | What will be true about SpaceX's deorbit tug | 9pgeii1m2y4 | null | null | null | null |
tv1mua8m098 | false | dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I am not super familiar with US election procedures. Can you elaborate why a \"serious primary challenge at the Democratic convention\" is the same as dropping out?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Alex B. Goode | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,719,563,933,513 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | AlexbGoode | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
lurn1lloqj | false | y5epDloYrxdc6yqnC1VjnTuVCal2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You guys should really pay more attention to Polymarket instead of waiting for Nate Silver to tell you what Polymarket already shows. It's clearly better calibrated than Manifold in this regard.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fdy1oV4C94D.png?alt=media&token=8aaa8f25-ea13-433c-b2ba-55791fd97ef9",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bair | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,563,964,559 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | Bair | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYUvh0DyDuiAdCtqW5aBt7A1JYDjm0gzHvntw_W5g=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.761295 | 6,722.98401 | NO | null |
z8mtdolfrqj | false | 1BZZKljhfHSkhWzeJUqBJhtbXBR2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "i don't know how the democrat delegates work, but normal delegates during presidential election delegates can do weird things. like they can put down the a different name, but most states have a fine if they do. they did this to prevent the only time where some states said no to a person becoming president because he slept with a black woman. (not sure if she was a slave or free woman.)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joseph Martin jr 3rd (coyote) | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,564,050,433 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | JosephMartinjr3rdcoyote | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYHEoSJhMZcvnN9yuWzkizawSdtWDLPWktMcJ1XCA=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | shid8bes02t | 0.761295 | 128.550151 | YES | null |
quh29ze69wf | false | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "So far, Trump has posted a quote from someone else saying he won (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112692364035829363",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112692364035829363",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "), many arguments against Biden's performance (e.g., ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112692120272329840",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112692120272329840",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "), and his political statements, but no direct claims of his win according to the description.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lion | zguwq4erjy | public | contract | 1,719,564,319,816 | will-trump-claim-on-truth-social-th | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | Will Trump claim on Truth Social that he won the debate within 24 hours of it ending? | null | 0.916651 | 0 | YES | null |
fylc5ab77b7 | false | cDzkzLtyW3VCfKWYsKOF6iKsuV92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3",
"label": "bohaska",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " What is the criteria? Local LLMs that let you edit system prompt could do this last year. Ppular models like Claude and chatgpt don't usually do that but you can get it to work with prompt engineering on some models.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Project Victory | osbD00CDUgcQGPHhH0mn | public | contract | 1,719,564,548,975 | ai-capabilities-2024-mega-market | ProjectVictory | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI4y0VVuOG8tCfdABrtBsS8cUQ6Me5av07oSlAEEoT8=s96-c | AI Capabilities 2024 [Mega Market] 🤖🦾🦿 | null | null | 61.71286 | NO | 04f4223d72ca |
ynvhott8rkf | false | T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Not from the US, and would love if Biden wins, but his performance last night was horrible. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The Wabi Sabi | 4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F | public | contract | 1,719,564,629,193 | will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres | TheWabiSabi | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | 0.318899 | 71.822152 | NO | null | |
y11vrnnhc7 | false | PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/NoitUK/uk-general-election-which-party-wil-b9d2789d2fbd?r=Tm9pdA",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Mordaunt",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/NoitUK/uk-general-election-which-party-wil-43fe6bd4d13c?r=Tm9pdA",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Hunt ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "and ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/uk-general-election-which-party-wil-20e14d7b738b?r=Tm9pdA",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Rees-Mogg",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " unlikely to keep their seats, Braverman and Badenoch lead amongst 2019 voters.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": "t1806602693802102840",
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "tiptapTweet"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Noit | BF8rAeYD9YCynwdFdReW | public | contract | 1,719,564,663,976 | who-will-be-the-next-conservative-p | Noit | Who will be the next Conservative Party Leader? | null | null | 1,478.806906 | YES | 708309228ad5 | |
2w1wr8166xu | false | 7GfbkTkafOYdahK4KohuS566Fks1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Further details of 2018 WIV thesis, titled 'Evolutionary Mechanism of Adaptation of Bat SARS-like Coronaviruses to Host Receptor Molecules'",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Key Findings: WIV is holding back 5 bat ACE2 sequences from Yunnan — 3 likely from Mojiang and 2 from Chuxiong. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/TheSeeker268/status/1805984637359206556?t=6N_KPsXdE5-o64XR9tow4g&s=19",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/TheSeeker268/status/1805984637359206556?t=6N_KPsXdE5-o64XR9tow4g&s=19",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mike P | 4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7 | public | contract | 1,719,565,535,582 | did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory | MikePa67d | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL_jqhYtfYMl_7Vek0wmAhJ0dgPZAcCYLl372RLqIA1=s96-c | Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? | null | 0.567759 | 269,531.465992 | YES | null |
mh061c6cbjc | false | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This market resolves to N/A according to the description because the original market resolved as NO and no handshake took place.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This market will be considered N/A if the debate doedn't take place in June or if they do not shake hands during CNN's official live coverage. I will follow Joshua's market and definition of a handshake, and will resolve this question as N/A if Joshua's market resolves to NO.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lion | 5sou70b2mm | public | contract | 1,719,565,677,343 | if-biden-and-trump-shake-hands-at-t | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | If Biden and Trump shake hands at the June debate, how long will their handshake be? | null | null | null | null | null |
906noloktl9 | false | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Could you N/A this market please? (See pinned comment)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lion | 5sou70b2mm | public | contract | 1,719,565,769,214 | if-biden-and-trump-shake-hands-at-t | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | If Biden and Trump shake hands at the June debate, how long will their handshake be? | 8oi1whkvayy | null | null | null | null |
sa6196jbft | false | 6QlP88QnoqcYeePMrbTojs42JOM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Michelle Obama bettors don't look so dumb now, huh?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Fergus Argyll | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,566,257,265 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | FergusArgyll | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaN9-RDIt18AYUbA3im5d3HcSLt8JI2MZ81Ep8t_HY=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | null | null | null | null |
478epwrgfz7 | false | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "They've tested it with Starship sideways in the bellyflop position. That's not gravity-vertical either.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mqrius | 9T2V7uRgbU3dgzzrI7AG | public | contract | 1,719,566,317,087 | when-will-spacex-starship-reach-orb | Mqrius | When will Starship complete an orbit? | vrwmzndonsq | null | 420.096313 | YES | f55661faad87 | |
axdsjjkgxad | false | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why, because the probability in this market has gone up to 0.3%? The true probability is even less",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Tumbles ♠︎ Meme Rising | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,566,420,825 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | Tumbles | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | sa6196jbft | null | 289,156.569105 | YES | 51e4cacd136a | |
4j2kqbin0h2 | false | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I agree that it will likely work. (Though the test was aborted on IFT-3 for some reason.)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "But if I were a regulator, and I was faced with licensing a flight with a new kind of engine on a huge rocket that is able to reach the Earth surface in one piece, I would likely require more definite proof.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Oleg Eterevsky | 9T2V7uRgbU3dgzzrI7AG | public | contract | 1,719,566,437,770 | when-will-spacex-starship-reach-orb | OlegEterevsky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | When will Starship complete an orbit? | vrwmzndonsq | null | null | null | null |
pff8z9694vo | false | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Very decision-relevant market that I wish had more traders",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | DismalScientist | 88ykSdduJBm1fOE5UBin | public | contract | 1,719,566,591,451 | who-would-win-the-us-presidential-e-e43c62c31980 | DismalScientist | Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Democratic Party nominee in 2024? [More Answers] | null | null | 238.917656 | NO | 1f5ba8660d4d | |
y1s90zxfvo | false | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think it makes sense that they'd require more proof yeah, but I'm not 100% confident of that. But I think we mostly agree.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ift-3 burn was probably canceled due to lack of attitude control.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mqrius | 9T2V7uRgbU3dgzzrI7AG | public | contract | 1,719,566,664,139 | when-will-spacex-starship-reach-orb | Mqrius | When will Starship complete an orbit? | vrwmzndonsq | null | 420.096313 | YES | f55661faad87 | |
w7jezl02o0n | false | 6QlP88QnoqcYeePMrbTojs42JOM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "not because of her chance, I didn't bet on her. Because they realized there was a big chance of Biden having to drop out. Everyone else was willfully ignoring how senile Biden is.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Fergus Argyll | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,566,782,865 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | FergusArgyll | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaN9-RDIt18AYUbA3im5d3HcSLt8JI2MZ81Ep8t_HY=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | sa6196jbft | null | null | null | null |
24e5g7hno3l | false | XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I like how that thread says it's really important that these are Rhinolophus pusillus bats and then if you search for that species name almost none of the lab leak people have talked about it in the last 4 years:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/search?q=rhinolophus%20pusillus&src=recent_search_click&f=live",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/search?q=rhinolophus%20pusillus&src=recent_search_click&f=live",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "That's kind of like when y'all made up Ben Hu's name as patient zero and everyone said, \"yeah, I thought it was him\" but you could go back and no one had actually said that.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Peter Miller | 4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7 | public | contract | 1,719,566,842,942 | did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory | PeterMillerc030 | Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? | 2w1wr8166xu | 0.54 | 355,455.185436 | NO | null | |
l75gbk194wm | false | XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It also appears that picking that bat species as the important one demolishes the talking point that there are \"no relevant bats in Hubei\":",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/Ticklicker56/status/1697758579313295785",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/Ticklicker56/status/1697758579313295785",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Though maybe I shouldn't quote ticklicker because he contradicted himself in another thread, where he insisted only one relevant bat species lives in Hubei:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/Ticklicker56/status/1753562394943426822",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/Ticklicker56/status/1753562394943426822",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Peter Miller | 4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7 | public | contract | 1,719,566,854,373 | did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory | PeterMillerc030 | Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? | 2w1wr8166xu | 0.54 | 355,455.185436 | NO | null | |
k7u8re97zx | false | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952",
"label": "ManifoldPolitics",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Maybe add Roy Cooper to this?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | DismalScientist | 88ykSdduJBm1fOE5UBin | public | contract | 1,719,566,983,856 | who-would-win-the-us-presidential-e-e43c62c31980 | DismalScientist | Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Democratic Party nominee in 2024? [More Answers] | null | null | 238.917656 | NO | 1f5ba8660d4d | |
rkpx3tzx5l8 | false | GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Re “willfully ignoring”: He seemed “fine” enough at the SOTU. Since then I’d seen the usual rumors and clips going around showing he wasn’t doing well, but those are easily slanted. So I discount them heavily. There’s no substitute for a live stream for getting at the truth, and that’s why I updated significantly on this event.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is that “willfully ignoring”? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ansel | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,567,084,422 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | Ansel | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | sa6196jbft | null | 2,520.172956 | YES | 892080ca10c6 | |
3k47z2w1a38 | false | cXfjElSKSFTJVYwY3xlxH5wQlF82 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Out of curiosity, would you be able to ask each model multiple times and tell us the distribution of the response? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "e.g. what % of the time did it pick the same candidate ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Elf | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,567,356,773 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | elf | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | null | null | null | null | null | |
h2n6fjxyrf | false | XeQf3ygmrGM1MxdsE3JSlmq8vL42 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "mXbhP3YSiuUHODOMpmk4wDBtB7k2",
"label": "CharlesCarriere",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " presumably this is meant to have a close date of 12/31/2024 instead of 06/30/2024?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jacy | HmxEqKdNzBnVBXXxqhr3 | public | contract | 1,719,567,381,296 | will-tokamak-energys-construction-a | Jacy | Will Tokamak Energy's construction and testing of its Demo4 unit be complete by 12/31/2024? | null | 0.2 | 166.24002 | NO | null | |
hwxteencu4l | false | cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolved Biden YES, hope this is uncontroversial",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FNfpkwFdXmr.png?alt=media&token=0fb2479c-0e19-46ef-9991-f4eaa75cf558",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | lukres | jBOGTxxRwNWX7AWvquND | public | contract | 1,719,567,490,436 | which-candidates-will-ramble-incohe | lukres | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2 | Which candidates will ramble incoherently ahead of the 2024 election? | null | null | 99.952514 | YES | 01b447ddb1b8 |
c6sowtn9s1 | false | XeQf3ygmrGM1MxdsE3JSlmq8vL42 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "oo1E5R26RIaZWekjwf88Kd5IOin1",
"label": "MichaelL",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " how is \"top performing\" measured for this?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jacy | J1nLv9oIT915NVkeom1g | public | contract | 1,719,567,521,917 | which-open-source-llm-will-be-the-t | Jacy | Which open source LLM will be the top performing open source LLM by July 1, 2024? | null | null | 159.315437 | YES | 25511c4d39e5 | |
dgl7p20n7o | false | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "clinton 3%",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "nice",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jim | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,567,781,826 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | jim | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | lurn1lloqj | 0.75 | 119,356.065314 | NO | null | |
iedc640v6j | false | 1S3tsifD6kTYTIGEF2zEsIeEE7v2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If the democrats don't remove Biden they are doing political suicide. He reminded me of my grandfather when he had early dementia. Even the way he walked on stage he looked fragile. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mae Polé | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,568,386,322 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | MaePole | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0abgk9-5BMcT8OLNL2P15srXmgzN8EsnSTAylaiA=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | null | 69.831375 | NO | 51e4cacd136a |
6pke9zww21b | false | Reojf0vF1KStl8jhf9dodil7Q433 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Remember those \"real money markets are inefficient relative to manifold\" arguments?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Douglas Campbell | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,568,473,642 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | DouglasCampbell | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy5vuO-IQmcBW2wAwiuRlMculoQM7ZrH_wXNxjQ=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.769168 | 128.83885 | YES | null |
peekxmuhmsn | false | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I mean it's hard to take much in any direction from a low sample. To compare forecasts you need a lot of events. Not that I disagree with your overall point though.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Semiotic Rivalry | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,568,531,728 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | SemioticRivalry | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 6pke9zww21b | 0.769168 | 920,001.910236 | NO | null | |
wbobz9ysgl | false | B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "85kg squat today, felt strong. I might push for lower weights higher reps (easier to get to failure) until next Sunday, where I may go for 90kg. Not sure, might be pushing too fast if I don't have a spotter",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Elliot Davies | ZFoP4zq9qSOjsuOtkacm | public | contract | 1,719,568,569,429 | will-i-bench-70kg-and-squat-100kg-b | ElliotDavies | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c | Will I bench 70kg and squat 100kg by EOY 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
zfru5auxao | false | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fkv2g9t1spy.png?alt=media&token=3894cf2c-9153-4b34-bef0-18c4f84432cd",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jim | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,569,366,307 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | jim | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.765081 | 119,356.065314 | NO | null | |
6qp89kle17 | false | B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Surely this has to put pressure on the biden campaign? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FvZAuJhsBBw.png?alt=media&token=cfdc0267-84e5-4fbf-9074-3d45604b6895",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Elliot Davies | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,569,453,359 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | ElliotDavies | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.765081 | 202.177245 | NO | null |
q0rfpkmxia | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Because the ChatGPT website I guess wasn't fully updated and I thought 4o wasn't free. I can use 4o instead if nobody minds the change. If you do mind the change, please comment here.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I agree API with temperature 0 would be better for reproducibility and if someone wants to do that then we can resolve based on that.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jack | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,569,808,884 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | jack | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | duv8qwn8zbd | null | null | null | null | |
33mzg7up6kk | false | VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "Iar7J99RNHSqh3FFi3CERKhkQv23",
"label": "WilliamEhlhardt",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I just saw this option and don't understand what you mean. Can you please clarify? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Madge | fD7rBvdUD5b9m2rQdOr2 | public | contract | 1,719,569,932,064 | what-will-be-true-of-the-cake-that | Mad | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte8_eF79qvYqWfwsUrbabHSKNfFlLcBDrV4NU24H1KAMmev=s96-c | What will be true of the cake that manifold makes? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | 2,111.690683 | YES | m68eo8z6lf |
lvzc0i17jm | false | Cxu2tYwJK5Vlft9zKUQdliRJEB52 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Biden is barely functioning. At this rate we’re comparing the candidates at the least important level which is how well they can function. It’s crazy that Biden won primaries in his current state. Trump is always going to outshine other candidates because he’s at minimum able to speak persuasively. Biden has no charm. I hope a third party comes in and replaces these two. The United States democratic system is failing so hard.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FlyingPig | 4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F | public | contract | 1,719,570,168,980 | will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres | Flig | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | 0.30025 | 8,161.732998 | NO | null | |
vzhfborr1c | false | JsoHnF7zq8Phr6J0K2qKXimVcrs2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Not counting him but that's a cool fact",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Shai | 3gs9fpA28AxDuwhMkT0y | public | contract | 1,719,570,623,222 | will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-be-the-mos | Shai | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the most successful independent US presidential candidate in history? | 0lfzyvmp3vm | 0.084835 | 125.026713 | YES | null | |
k6yw0zjrl1 | false | y5epDloYrxdc6yqnC1VjnTuVCal2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Elon's reaction to the debate was basically that the debate was a disgrace, both candidates sucked. And he promoted RFK Jr's own version of the debate.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": "t1806455085150458355",
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "tiptapTweet"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bair | RscL7G0kseDHjjoAe2eo | public | contract | 1,719,570,625,940 | will-elon-musk-endorse-trump-for-pr | Bair | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYUvh0DyDuiAdCtqW5aBt7A1JYDjm0gzHvntw_W5g=s96-c | Will Elon Musk endorse Donald Trump for president? | null | 0.475486 | 507.685595 | NO | null |
ai7efhnft0f | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm assuming that \"new\" doesn't mean to exclude countries that are already disputed to some extent, right? Somaliland exists since 1991, Taiwan since 1912, Catalunya declared independence in 2017, Palestine in 1988. (You might want to add Israel to the list, I'm OOM.)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bruno | S1cji1TcHbmI9rFUzEmP | public | contract | 1,719,570,750,292 | which-country-will-lose-territory-t | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Which country will lose territory to a newly founded country by 2050? [add responses] | null | null | null | null | null |
fzaj0q5bx3m | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why wouldn't you count him?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bruno | 3gs9fpA28AxDuwhMkT0y | public | contract | 1,719,570,777,241 | will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-be-the-mos | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the most successful independent US presidential candidate in history? | 0lfzyvmp3vm | null | null | null | null |
j72q4eklcg | false | Iar7J99RNHSqh3FFi3CERKhkQv23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "ugh, my wording was bad. Read this as \"Madge will make a single cupcake instead of a full size cake\".",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | William Ehlhardt | fD7rBvdUD5b9m2rQdOr2 | public | contract | 1,719,570,927,636 | what-will-be-true-of-the-cake-that | WilliamEhlhardt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhIt4otiuT2URGdpXkfphc7Dd1YGXK9gzUx5RHztA=s96-c | What will be true of the cake that manifold makes? [ADD RESPONSES] | 33mzg7up6kk | null | 81.35005 | NO | h15sf36wyn |
ks65rsw8yba | false | cfz8q51Q6xdrRjBw1HdfmMlsmAz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This comment may prove visionary.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Floris van Doorn | O47uqkK519kgWuyzn6ID | public | contract | 1,719,570,950,827 | how-many-debates-will-joe-biden-and | FlorisvanDoorn | How many debates will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in during the 2024 presidential election | 4r3tq9ipko9 | null | 1,034.866703 | NO | 91b6306da8b6 | |
m859yeewlse | false | JsoHnF7zq8Phr6J0K2qKXimVcrs2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Wouldn't be fair to the people who bet already, since I mislead them in the description. I will change the title though. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Shai | 3gs9fpA28AxDuwhMkT0y | public | contract | 1,719,571,099,649 | will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-be-the-mos | Shai | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the most successful independent US presidential candidate in history? | 0lfzyvmp3vm | 0.084835 | 125.026713 | YES | null | |
7bnwrklfy6s | false | LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If you feel the need to ask a question like this one, you already know the answer. You're just not ready to accept it. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "For example, you're in a developing country. You just purchased something. The person who sold it to you looks too jazzed. You ask yourself: \"Did I just get ripped off?\" ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yes. You got ripped off. If you had to ask that question, you know the answer is yes, but you're not ready to accept it. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Similarly, \"Will I convert to Christianity?\" is a question that has already answered itself. If a smart person asks this question, they want to convert, but they're not yet ready to admit it. It's a question like \"am I becoming a conservative?\" or \"am I no longer left wing?\" or \"should I have children?\" Yes, yes, and yes. If you didn't think so, you wouldn't ask. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If you're a smart person in 2024, embracing morality, religion, right-of-center politics, and tradition is the only way to be transgressive. It's also the only way to become happy and mature, especially if you're the sort of person who revises beliefs in light of new evidence. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If you are able to learn and challenge your own beliefs, you'll find that orgies, porn, stock options, drugs, politics, being correct to several decimal points, and FIRE-level-assets don't cut it after a while. Spiritual bankruptcy is a real thing. Even Ayaan Hirsi Ali converted to Christianity because she said she had tried literally everything else to cure her misery. And voila. It worked. Like it has worked for billions of people for thousands of years. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "But most people reject religion, tradition, and right-of-center politics because they've met an asshole in the past who was censorious, self-righteous, controlling, narcissistic, hostile to science, immune to reason, cruel, and just generally awful -- a church lady with thumb screws. It sounds like Aella was raised by one of those pricks. This can turn a person off of religion. Indeed, it can make someone go out and systematically do everything that religious people tell you not to do. And for a while, it feels like fun. It feels like progress. It feels like freedom. You got away from the assholes. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "And then you run into new assholes, ones who don't believe in god, but they're just as bad as the ones who did. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Plot twist: you know who is censorious, self-righteous, controlling, narcissistic, hostile to science, immune to reason, cruel, and just generally awful in 2024? We call them woke. If you are able to revise your beliefs in light of new evidence, you'll figure out that it wasn't Christianity that made people like that. It was fundamentalism. And you can have religion without fundamentalism. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "People tend to find out that religion is better than the alternatives: libertarian materialism and Marxist materialism. Those are the big two. And they both suck. When people figure out that it is possible to have religion without fundamentalism, and to have religion without becoming an asshole, then religion starts looking good. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "And the alternatives to religion, in time, begin to look worse and worse. The alternatives to religion are (1) the misery of unlimited freedom (consumerism), (2) the misery of seeking the perfection of humanity and the cleansing of every soul (usually by participating in some apocalyptic political cult), or (3) the misery of chasing the dragon of personal optimization while being bereft of values and direction. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(1) Freedom of choice, when made into the ultimate value, always yields misery, both for individuals and for societies. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Society has been devastated by the nihilism of bipartisan libertarianism. Look around you. You see the world that has been created when freedom of choice is the only sacred value on both the left and the right. Is anyone there happy? Or are they telling themselves that they're happy? Or are they in therapy and on lots of medications? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(2) Are the people trying to save the world happy? No, obviously. Ask an Effective Altruist who is down one kidney and working 80 hours a week and living frugally to save the world, feeling like a slave and a victim all the time. No, no, no. Next!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(3) Are the productivity bloggers happy? No. And they're tedious. I don't give a shit about your 4AM ice bath or your personal metrics. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The only people who both are happy and have personal integrity in the West are the people who have successfully figured out how to become religious without becoming an asshole. Eventually we all meet one of these people and say we want what they have. Eventually we all become desperate enough to admit we were wrong.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Further reading: \"A History of God\" by Karen Armstrong. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Religion is not always fundamentalism. And praying will not turn you into a fundamentalist asshole who rejects science. The New Atheism is both adolescent and philistine. Eventually we grow out of it. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Harrison Lucas | DHGzkbRsfbCUIlz5bf0w | public | contract | 1,719,571,155,477 | will-i-aella-convert-to-christianit | HarrisonLucas | Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028? | qcmjn90gwie | 0.093094 | 5,641.226542 | YES | null | |
koeo9n6leph | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FXw9tpUzZFh.png?alt=media&token=ab7a9f5c-96b0-4952-a4e8-32260764fef1",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Despite rain ambiguities looks like there is a clear LLCC earlier today",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FqmJqqNf5hE.png?alt=media&token=880b84d6-69df-497d-b596-7a1ae45d90b4",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "36kt from satellite sources with pressure of 1006",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Now mesoscale imagery this morning, first light:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FGyuXQIhnm6.png?alt=media&token=18f46fbd-bdc8-4ffa-bd84-09642eb9cb00",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Microwave imagery:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FoxjxBAn06g.png?alt=media&token=9019d32d-0803-44fe-9542-db148fc94b03",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FzWrydyeWTp.png?alt=media&token=b40cc0f7-8947-4274-bacc-7f4edab1a460",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "not much deep convection visible from IR:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6chuXT9H20.png?alt=media&token=48f445d3-c135-4f49-9da8-614067443ea6",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Latest Visible:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FHgoI1dzD_Q.png?alt=media&token=433f8f69-5aac-4d21-a5b2-084e71acce31",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JRP | rvhupovwx2 | public | contract | 1,719,571,157,640 | when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named | parhizj | When will a tropical storm be named Beryl in 2024? | null | null | 1,040.247104 | NO | 9ibihrp8y4 | |
owf08jvtwb | false | frBevxJ79zNClZg2d9H8m0gLLIW2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What if it doesn't happen at all? No? N/A? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mana | 6bqwmcr4qz | public | contract | 1,719,571,274,645 | will-lincoln-appear-in-biden-vs-tru | Mana | Will Lincoln appear in Biden vs Trump epic rap battles of History 2024 | null | null | null | null | null | |
g7gg94h00y | false | t0bKoFORwsQpjWltj9khAL2CbLh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "From Metaculus: ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "For the question to resolve as ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "Yes",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", no more than 34 Russians can be competing at the 2024 Olympics. 34 was chosen as 10% of ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Olympic_Committee_athletes_at_the_2020_Summer_Olympics",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Russian athletes that participated in the 2020 Olympics",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " to allow for a few individual or sport specific exceptions.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Hannes | 28v86jlVNaPiPW889veU | public | contract | 1,719,571,354,969 | will-russian-athletes-be-barred-fro-3221205cfe61 | HannesLynchburg | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdfrllG49IxkU9OBLJ85qqdWhf2ikbeI7eT1MMju-Tu=s96-c | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | null | null | null | null | null |
xqovgif4bf | false | XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It was really that bad.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm not sure how it will play out, but I pulled some real money bets at a small loss, for fear they'll become a bigger loss.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm not quite as worried here, mana is play money and hedging is easier on this site.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Peter Miller | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,571,404,526 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | PeterMillerc030 | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | v9vwxb3f5td | null | 77,691.091606 | YES | 8de9e54470a7 | |
moshnwna7s | false | 66e69xtuxcaOANdzvof19Vm4HFL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "As of now, the formal nomination of Biden is planned to be done virtually, in advance of the convention, as the convention is scheduled to take place after the deadline to place candidates on the ballot in Ohio.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | HoldingC | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,571,767,278 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | HoldingC | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.759433 | 2,521.107499 | YES | null | |
1hm3bavnf3y | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Sure. I also was thinking I can live stream the responses (the official ones that would count for this market).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jack | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,571,787,938 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | jack | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | 3k47z2w1a38 | null | null | null | null | |
bmysdin3doc | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQu7XcA2tOS.png?alt=media&token=e4eb72e0-67f5-492a-bc58-74e4f99f17a2",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | aexns5j8am | public | contract | 1,719,571,788,368 | is-it-joever | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Is it Joever? | null | null | null | null | null |
92gjizqjpmn | false | 5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolve?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ismellpillows | RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH | public | contract | 1,719,571,815,310 | manifold-american-english-pronuncia | ismellpillows | Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide | null | null | 957.112129 | NO | tjw0xqh8wj | |
7p8zk2q885b | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I was also thinking about Gemini but I didn't have time to experiment with it for this last minute market. I will try it for the next one!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jack | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,572,108,483 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | jack | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | 2uz3ei5rf9g | null | null | null | null | |
8eigh3ixi33 | false | 9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Polymarket was at 90 yesterday. Do you say this because there was a gap between the 2 markets for awhile?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Fedor | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,572,134,759 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | Fedor | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | lurn1lloqj | 0.762141 | 20,754.433039 | YES | null | |
4sn8syhf1cp | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Definitely more than just 2 lol",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | ZDorRfxLNqK4JzV8x2Sc | public | contract | 1,719,572,704,751 | tump-v-biden-debate-bingo | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Trump v Biden debate BINGO [First debate hosted by CNN] | null | null | 150.843353 | NO | ji07tlnts7 |
24ththpyl1d | false | y5epDloYrxdc6yqnC1VjnTuVCal2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yes, I say this because there was a consistent gap between Manifold and Polymarket on all US presidential election related markets.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bair | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,572,724,208 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | Bair | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYUvh0DyDuiAdCtqW5aBt7A1JYDjm0gzHvntw_W5g=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | lurn1lloqj | 0.7582 | 6,722.98401 | NO | null |
v5z11eq64gl | false | EpITnFh5oeNb4OgEtquAgc3pqF72 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If nothing drops this year in regards to trump vs biden (which I highly doubt) ill resolve it as no I guess",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Dave793 | 6bqwmcr4qz | public | contract | 1,719,572,763,822 | will-lincoln-appear-in-biden-vs-tru | Dave793 | Will Lincoln appear in Biden vs Trump epic rap battles of History 2024 | owf08jvtwb | 0.52593 | 94.040535 | YES | null | |
3xzr6ijj7vj | false | srNuGATOsoYcDMCXuU8dXPfA2x02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "misleading title. but it's worth noting that their gdp shrank by 5.1% Q1 2024 [1]. add to this poverty rate reaching 60% [2], unemployment at 7% [3], slashing of government jobs and spending [4]. i'm bullish on argentina in the long term but based on the description, this market seems overpriced.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "[1] ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/gdp-growth-annual",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/gdp-growth-annual",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "[2] ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2024-02-19/argentinas-poverty-levels-hit-57-of-population-a-20-year-high-in-january-study-finds",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2024-02-19/argentinas-poverty-levels-hit-57-of-population-a-20-year-high-in-january-study-finds",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "[3] ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://buenosairesherald.com/economics/argentinas-gdp-drops-5-1-and-unemployment-climbs-to-7-7",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://buenosairesherald.com/economics/argentinas-gdp-drops-5-1-and-unemployment-climbs-to-7-7",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "[4] ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://reason.com/2024/03/28/milei-to-slash-70000-government-jobs-to-reform-argentinas-economy/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://reason.com/2024/03/28/milei-to-slash-70000-government-jobs-to-reform-argentinas-economy/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mellow | KhYSBd9V84stshwMUeKU | public | contract | 1,719,573,470,749 | will-the-reforms-of-the-new-preside | mellowtractor | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLWPCjs48FU81Gd-YQx-dPMmX2IcgrH3WRy-swE_ci2BdY=s96-c | Will the reforms of the new president of Argentina(Milei) be good for the country's economy by 2024 | null | 0.582788 | 248.590549 | NO | null |
iatt17y4qi | false | LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I tried using VIM keybindings in Visual Studio Code yesterday and I couldn't do jack. I had to switch back to Emacs to get anything done. RESOLVED AS NO.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Harrison Lucas | dA1fA7hD8xKysHEs7upc | public | contract | 1,719,573,581,495 | this-emacs-user-switches-to-vim-key | HarrisonLucas | This Emacs user switches to Vim keybindings before July 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
qf4ken4ks0d | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The yanny/laurel video is the only known evidence of self-awareness in that particular human being.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bruno | q5ArD1ajc0ZnnWHOdQsj | public | contract | 1,719,574,059,558 | will-trump-say-or-send-a-message-wi | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will Trump use the word 'Covfefe' in 2024? | DwVNxNWOeXstXwcIoioS | null | null | null | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.