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1o1jvph784o
false
UqI8xtHf3qXhPCicWMvbmNBXiPQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ujxobxe8sxf", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Thanks for the clarification! Does it also apply to your other relevant market? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Handason
Tdac37R0UpyTeVydqwtK
public
contract
1,716,556,773,432
will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-at-1
HandasonTam
https://firebasestorage.…4f4-85c3cc3429e7
Will Nvidia stock end the year 2024 at $1000 or more? (or 1000/X if split)
5afwx92q3cw
0.623238
0
YES
null
jwsmzth7l9
false
T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6k64g60cqpy", "label": "TomGoldthwait", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Fair enough, although in my view that's originalism, since it describes the expected resolution by the market creator (with caveats). Maybe should have called it intentionalism instead of originalism, but for the inspiration for this poll the creator only created and resolved without interacting with comments.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tony Gao
c0lgpEGRtusMV64SutlK
public
contract
1,716,556,853,206
do-you-bet-on-manifold-based-on-tex
TonyGao
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c
Do you bet on Manifold based on textualism or originalism?
b0l66c6609p
null
null
null
null
j6y0ur7f5m
false
8NNAyStqvISBvH7Uao1WnDXc8Ql1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "a pointer for NO: ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/1cw5lub/comment/l55u7n6/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/1cw5lub/comment/l55u7n6/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Martin Vlach
lqTiccJDE6ovSR5touSr
public
contract
1,716,557,016,007
will-01ai-publish-weights-of-yi15la
MartinVlach
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkhkG2hLiwj7KQeyaj8Ro9f7WYf6KiFP8yUnreT=s96-c
Will 01.ai publish weights of Yi-1.5-large in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
1j6xldn59mw
false
PFel1j19mySRR96OMtQhdwyk3ZF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jwsmzth7l9", "label": "TonyGao", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " yeah, so if the wording is ambiguous and there isn't much discussion, my assumption is that the creator just isn't very thoughtful. I mostly prefer not to participate in those markets at all.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tom Goldthwait
c0lgpEGRtusMV64SutlK
public
contract
1,716,557,101,414
do-you-bet-on-manifold-based-on-tex
TomGoldthwait
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfOE7AVAT7axu3SdwDCRrK3eOF4agpSRwE__Ezhu-jKd5g=s96-c
Do you bet on Manifold based on textualism or originalism?
b0l66c6609p
null
null
null
null
gjxjch451zu
false
vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zsyBQ66QbVUvEKUyCwJe", "label": "jskf", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Well, you can’t have problems with society if there is no society!😆", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
shadowyzephyr
rvV9kDFlQ77H1hb5rBs1
public
contract
1,716,557,319,288
will-narcissistic-orgying-tech-nerd
ShadowyZephyr
https://firebasestorage.…efa-a11864a76e60
Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills?
wSEKzgSrJ8WhD6erqgsh
null
null
null
null
7yv3p83gn92
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "n13hxh06dai", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " i think most users on this site are not as hardcore as some poewrusers (scanning every single market and checking for arbitrage opportunities etc..)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Blomfilter
8086SGL1J3FXrHNxalkk
public
contract
1,716,557,377,615
will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-win-more-t-d0c180c16e22
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
n13hxh06dai
0.306481
847.971199
YES
null
cch1dwbiud
false
PFel1j19mySRR96OMtQhdwyk3ZF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jwsmzth7l9", "label": "TonyGao", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I also think that in many cases, the shared community interpretation matters more than the original intention. Community discussion tends to settle into a shared-ish understanding that may or may not align with the original intention. The resolver may then resolve based on their own original intention or the emergent community interpretation.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tom Goldthwait
c0lgpEGRtusMV64SutlK
public
contract
1,716,557,406,875
do-you-bet-on-manifold-based-on-tex
TomGoldthwait
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfOE7AVAT7axu3SdwDCRrK3eOF4agpSRwE__Ezhu-jKd5g=s96-c
Do you bet on Manifold based on textualism or originalism?
b0l66c6609p
null
null
null
null
yzlb73zzx7
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "simulation: <", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.twitch.tv/trumporbiden2024", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.twitch.tv/trumporbiden2024", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ">", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Blomfilter
gffoEWwKUc5NIG4cYgZH
public
contract
1,716,557,510,311
will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Will Trump and Biden Shake Hands at the first debate in June?
null
0.468069
89.116736
NO
null
0oekvzcak16d
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jih5qjbakoa", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " \"Hopefully it stays at 2\" A typhoon is forecast reaching Cat 1 strength on 28th.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So we may need a formal agreement over whether Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones count. It certainly should affect the probability of reaching 3.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": { "id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Are we agreed that the author interpretation of named as a Hurricane or Typhoon is needed and therefore Tropical Cyclones in Indian Ocean do not count?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
qMtEGWTyykNo0T2Cc42S
public
contract
1,716,557,765,667
what-will-happen-in-may-2024-add-re
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
🌼What will happen in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
h1du7np6fmq
null
826.048429
YES
4149c1d5bb11
jh5ofq86it
false
4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fvf5fdbmrts", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I don't really buy the 'inverse correlation'. I know there are fun statistics showing e.g. that professional ethicists behave no more morally than their non-ethicist peer (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://faculty.ucr.edu/~eschwitz/SchwitzAbs/EthBehBlackwell.htm", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://faculty.ucr.edu/~eschwitz/SchwitzAbs/EthBehBlackwell.htm", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "). But that's just no correlation rather than a negative one.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Johnny Ten-Numbers
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,557,852,820
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
1941159478
https://firebasestorage.…5d6-609a1a4230e5
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
fvf5fdbmrts
null
229.845467
YES
c259621e1dea
oa822f4ci8q
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "b2wdubtwfxu", "label": "nathanwei", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I guess the US sees the ICC as a potential future threat to its power, so there's a lot of groupthink in the two American political parties which makes them lash out against the court irrespective of values. But this isn't the 90s anymore; US influence is a lot weaker now. All this does is push the US further into isolationism and undermines its soft power projection. But perhaps that's what many of these politicians want.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
RemNi
CUjdL819yyKUHQd1zAl7
public
contract
1,716,557,875,957
will-bibi-netanyahu-be-invited-to-a
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will Bibi Netanyahu be invited to address the 118th US Congress?
dx2hlxryik
0.955872
0
NO
null
tc68g634ya
false
faAZQRWR2YTPZJAYEXhw56ydDHL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Surely we already know no one died as a result of the attack", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris Mills
qqrgexv8IZeslUtxUm7s
public
contract
1,716,557,918,268
what-will-happen-during-or-as-a-res
ChrisMillsc5f7
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLmttkO7a_SkKKmgvJV_wh3BtRxvZZxf0PCf1Z7MbCn=s96-c
What will happen during or as a result of the Iranian drone attack on Israel? [ADD ANSWERS]
null
null
111.390775
NO
69318c9c9953
7adyzldim6d
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3000M limit at 35% for a few hours", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
E0edSLrDpEBvWiu5vsbF
public
contract
1,716,558,007,614
will-scarlett-johansson-receive-mon
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will Scarlett Johansson receive money from OpenAI as a settlement, compensation, or damages by the end of 2024?
null
0.222886
717.037288
NO
null
ojw32mb9p1m
false
Re8h1ArV7Ef34NqrtE7Xj52Dzkd2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Makram's back, as if SRH's batting wasn't strong enough already 😒 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jared Ash
WnjjxxZ7N0ls3WJB1BXm
public
contract
1,716,558,467,667
ipl-match-winner-super-market-yes-f
JaredAsh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLBxqzOgEx9QHC_vvcs11Ze0naKE7nZryoKi74m2D-A=s96-c
🏏 IPL Match Winner Super Market. “Yes” for the first team to win, “No” for the second. 50 Mana bonus per game.
null
null
2,138.478995
YES
3ddeb3c5b8db
4j7anxufftt
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kbk0vl772bd", "label": "tpking", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " yes this is for regular time", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Base
k0TR99N4DKQkWgijHexe
public
contract
1,716,558,551,315
dortmund-real-madrid-champions-leag
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
Dortmund - Real Madrid Champions League Final 2024
kbk0vl772bd
null
70.34589
YES
9b4d17cf7092
wknl2v9kf2
false
IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If he's gonna reveal imu it's gonna be next chapter ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Andrew
WKsp787qUyy9smxERIlI
public
contract
1,716,558,749,968
will-vegapunk-reveal-imus-existence
AndrewCrosse
https://firebasestorage.…f22-3dec558fe261
Will Vegapunk reveal imu's existence to the world?
null
0.493853
0
NO
null
nlq41oufgq9
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1o1jvph784o", "label": "HandasonTam", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
Tdac37R0UpyTeVydqwtK
public
contract
1,716,558,974,164
will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-at-1
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Nvidia stock end the year 2024 at $1000 or more? (or 1000/X if split)
5afwx92q3cw
null
null
null
null
0715w06gvp8d
false
Tq9jL2S2KORFLmVPjElRYn6cZIt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vyak9lrl4uh", "label": "Jan53274", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Thanks, this fixed the same bug for me. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12", "label": "robm", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " You can use this method to unstick your streak", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
John-George Salter
yXryS9eo9aP5Is4ZxGYN
public
contract
1,716,559,142,183
will-my-streak-show-0-this-week
JohnGeorgeSalter
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ8vxe5FOwq_easpGoev2Dg0VygdTJB1THjyWfg3_nghBFL=s96-c
Will my streak show 0 this week?
vyak9lrl4uh
50
3,435.088363
NO
null
l1a43p4xus
false
b8FGhyj4KnUsg6EB9jiuEoe5uUb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Usually I avoid betting until both are aligned.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Irigi
c0lgpEGRtusMV64SutlK
public
contract
1,716,559,160,679
do-you-bet-on-manifold-based-on-tex
Irigi
https://firebasestorage.…0e5-d6f92e1b59f0
Do you bet on Manifold based on textualism or originalism?
null
null
null
null
null
uslmcgt3af8
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ohsl7qx26hp", "label": "jcb", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " haha nice reinterpetation 😅", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "general clarification - this doesn't necessarily mean dementia. oftentimes, you see people whose body and mind age at different rates as the years advance, to where they're super sharp but frail, or strong in the body while having cognitive difficulties (comprehension, memory, alertness, etc or dementia)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,716,559,404,117
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
ohsl7qx26hp
null
321.10921
NO
cae724d28376
ty77noo9hgq
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2", "label": "KongoLandwalker", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " See above. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think we do need to know you have committed to move before we post our move.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We do also need a little time after you confirm board and post new hash. So if we need to claim a little extra time please take this message as claiming some extra time. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
vHgWjP8xwUXXOdlBM4wq
public
contract
1,716,559,576,506
simultaneouspredictor-chess-will-wh
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Manifold plays simultaneous predictor chess, will white win?
ejchcaggwfo
0.54997
128.792262
YES
null
wbnm858meqr
false
8NNAyStqvISBvH7Uao1WnDXc8Ql1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9qcoeumdjn", "label": "CraigTalbert", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " but being an island complicates the logistics, doesn't it?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Martin Vlach
rQWRMAJEvGHCue7PHUbb
public
contract
1,716,559,766,783
where-will-the-next-generation-eu-g
MartinVlach
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkhkG2hLiwj7KQeyaj8Ro9f7WYf6KiFP8yUnreT=s96-c
Where will the next generation EU gravitational wave telescope (Einstein telescope) be built?
9qcoeumdjn
null
null
null
null
ozinpdhbcw
false
1g8P6pHRRLg4kaRxAMKyCCXn2mb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8v8t2nfzebo", "label": "ShadowyZephyr", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I'd agree that she's more likely to take various drugs than the average person, but it really depends on what we consider \"hard drugs\" to mean. The average person is probably not very likely to take high doses of psychedelics, but there is a certain sense in which we would be wrong to call many of those \"hard drugs\" (despite being highly illegal and/or taboo, most are very low-risk).", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I understand your intuition here, certainly, but I would also understand a competing intuition which said that Aella, in virtue of being more rationally-minded than the average person, is probably better at risk-reward analysis, which might plausibly give her better expected outcomes overall even after factoring in a higher tolerance for risk.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
NBAP
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,559,850,993
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
NBAP
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNBAP%2FqpSlMKH-74.57?alt=media&token=115d6799-daaf-47c9-8a52-f318b0a9688e
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
fu8owvbpvdv
null
45.618005
NO
b51174351aa5
gsckv648awf
false
HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ghptj3llssm", "label": "Carlosab83", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ok and?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Niel S
781x8buSmeM9CTkpk5dh
unlisted
contract
1,716,559,861,198
will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a-47f9daaf241b
NielS
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c
Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF the May 23rd, 2024?
7s17hxf8x93
0.939684
726.526736
NO
null
96zw9kz0lml
false
WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I notice this is trading at 97%. If this is because it has already happened, someone please provide a link - I am not going to resolve this YES otherwise.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Zvi Mowshowitz
vcNfzsg6Avjj7ynoxKqV
public
contract
1,716,559,862,875
will-ai-existential-risk-be-mention
ZviMowshowitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c
Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?
null
null
null
null
null
7k81do0jrzn
false
WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "96zw9kz0lml", "label": "ZviMowshowitz", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (or, rather, I am not going to resolve this YES until I have confirmation, one way or another)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Zvi Mowshowitz
vcNfzsg6Avjj7ynoxKqV
public
contract
1,716,559,889,254
will-ai-existential-risk-be-mention
ZviMowshowitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c
Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?
96zw9kz0lml
null
null
null
null
r4ilwm3jrv
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bets are not counting for streaks, but selling even a single share works", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
ro3tpgrVliDMJlmtT2cI
public
contract
1,716,560,184,993
bounty-for-reporting-manifold-bugs
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Bounty for reporting Manifold bugs
null
null
null
null
null
vqdktjsgytb
false
4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Tripping/where-will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-win-c0cd84ff9ac7", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tripping
QO1kMnPLftW6NDRevxjW
public
contract
1,716,560,339,961
will-rfk-jr-win-more-than-10-of-the
Tripping
https://firebasestorage.…25f-2823bd2dce88
Will RFK Jr. win more than 10% of the vote in any state or district in the 2024 presidential election?
null
null
null
null
null
0awdogaxj1ro
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Finally something that seems really clear.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The marginal disutility of losing money is increasing; the first €100 you're scammed of hurts you less than the next €100.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So a 50% probability of losing 2X is worse than a certainty of losing X.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
9QsfOW232lNnFj6ASRrZ
public
contract
1,716,560,372,106
what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
What is worse than committing a financial crime?
null
null
null
null
null
s38b3zruwmf
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2pk2ghrbeur", "label": "Carlosab83", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Hi! Yeah no need to do anything on your part, just leave it closed for now please. Not saying you did anything wrong at any step here, especially as your first market.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's just a complicated situation where we'd ideally like all the markets about a factual question to resolve together in the technically correct way.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
781x8buSmeM9CTkpk5dh
public
contract
1,716,560,422,965
will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a-47f9daaf241b
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF the May 23rd, 2024?
ya6d6jlsfgo
null
null
null
null
rtc6xw8es08
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FlTC5amzLXE.jpeg?alt=media&token=b91c0293-1777-48a9-91c7-94ff92385954", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
lSdxuYtWAItHh6EJfUaD
public
contract
1,716,560,590,346
will-kingdom-of-the-planet-of-the-a-6b4614a951af
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
null
null
976.301122
NO
b8b913af281b
na1ypve0wjm
false
TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Please note, this market resolution date is May 31. If Erik Ten Hag parts wasy with ManU before that date, this will resolve to NO", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tomek ⚡ K
wmUGHfkvPV3RmAaqq3CQ
public
contract
1,716,560,639,422
will-erik-ten-hag-stay-manchester-u
itsTomekK
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c
Will Erik Ten Hag stay Manchester United's coach through full season?
null
0.815859
18.333333
NO
null
1xnejy1n7b4
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ws9btwi0o8c", "label": "jim", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " why", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rana G
hI5ALCi6wXQWWITMQS8M
public
contract
1,716,560,701,620
will-jim-ever-try-sex
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
will @jim have sex at any point prior to 2028?
ws9btwi0o8c
0.125122
1,756.547863
YES
null
g9esp6ksur4
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1xnejy1n7b4", "label": "RanaG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " i get a bigger no position", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
hI5ALCi6wXQWWITMQS8M
public
contract
1,716,560,897,719
will-jim-ever-try-sex
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
will @jim have sex at any point prior to 2028?
ws9btwi0o8c
0.125122
14,602.216605
NO
null
6qv7y6cqzit
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0awdogaxj1ro", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Maybe, but I think more relevantly: If it depends on a coin toss then it is not a 'forced by circumstances' crime which makes it worse.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
9QsfOW232lNnFj6ASRrZ
public
contract
1,716,560,942,666
what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
What is worse than committing a financial crime?
0awdogaxj1ro
null
35.065622
YES
125054e49d25
xmynmvxuyl
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "g9esp6ksur4", "label": "jim", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " this market should not be endogenous to the outcome ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rana G
hI5ALCi6wXQWWITMQS8M
public
contract
1,716,561,001,624
will-jim-ever-try-sex
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
will @jim have sex at any point prior to 2028?
ws9btwi0o8c
0.125122
1,756.547863
YES
null
xcd31tsqjt
false
0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "z0e1m6ej5sf", "label": "RemNi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " It will also help Netanyahu domestically, which is, bad", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
colorednoise
CUjdL819yyKUHQd1zAl7
public
contract
1,716,561,032,882
will-bibi-netanyahu-be-invited-to-a
colorednoise
https://firebasestorage.…7c5-3d0b33690749
Will Bibi Netanyahu be invited to address the 118th US Congress?
dx2hlxryik
0.955872
135.712311
NO
null
ovdqe08fks
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ty77noo9hgq", "label": "ChristopherRandles", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " that is the board. New hash in 30 minutes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kongo Landwalker
vHgWjP8xwUXXOdlBM4wq
public
contract
1,716,561,105,566
simultaneouspredictor-chess-will-wh
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Manifold plays simultaneous predictor chess, will white win?
ejchcaggwfo
0.54997
178.01709
NO
null
bnlqd5m2ber
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xmynmvxuyl", "label": "RanaG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " why not", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
hI5ALCi6wXQWWITMQS8M
public
contract
1,716,561,113,318
will-jim-ever-try-sex
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
will @jim have sex at any point prior to 2028?
ws9btwi0o8c
0.125122
14,602.216605
NO
null
4vcgzetb98i
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xmynmvxuyl", "label": "RanaG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Hmmm yeah if he's saying he can be incentivized it sounds like his preferences weren't that certain to begin with.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Seems bullish ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
hI5ALCi6wXQWWITMQS8M
public
contract
1,716,561,152,238
will-jim-ever-try-sex
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
will @jim have sex at any point prior to 2028?
ws9btwi0o8c
null
null
null
null
l40bvr069d
false
mrWm2AuHgjSoVgeYNvyCpUVcvpm2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "slow game", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Abraham
l6u8krLxwMazidXcOxYC
public
contract
1,716,561,169,344
what-would-happen-in-minecraft-121
Abraham2a3c
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL7_tb_QD4TPXfXyzHc5i54_w1wuVUUR9Y4ONcVNMiZ=s96-c
What would happen in Minecraft 1.21? [Add answers]
null
null
null
null
null
cx28dyxx5k4
false
qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0715w06gvp8d", "label": "JohnGeorgeSalter", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " this worked for me too, and I happened to sell shares after I posted this yesterday, so I'm at 227 now", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
robm
yXryS9eo9aP5Is4ZxGYN
public
contract
1,716,561,251,693
will-my-streak-show-0-this-week
robm
https://firebasestorage.…c2d-4d0e2a793adf
Will my streak show 0 this week?
vyak9lrl4uh
null
null
null
null
iify82v7c2p
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4vcgzetb98i", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I think a YES resolution is possible given ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "(1) the definition of sex is pretty wide", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "(2) I don't have to actually have a good time for this market to resolve YES (although, to be clear, it must be consensual) ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "(3) 2028 is a longish time away", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "But me having a big NO position would definitely make it less likely 😆 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe I should stop trading on the market. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
hI5ALCi6wXQWWITMQS8M
public
contract
1,716,561,392,036
will-jim-ever-try-sex
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
will @jim have sex at any point prior to 2028?
ws9btwi0o8c
0.125122
14,602.216605
NO
null
0dw0qct9b6i
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Personalism: betting on how the market creator will resolve the market. Text, original intention, character, actual event - are 4 compounds of his final decision how to resolve.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kongo Landwalker
c0lgpEGRtusMV64SutlK
public
contract
1,716,561,406,718
do-you-bet-on-manifold-based-on-tex
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Do you bet on Manifold based on textualism or originalism?
null
null
null
null
null
f3yzlf2qba
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ☝️", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
LkPCpjA6WImIfMByv4Un
public
contract
1,716,561,491,702
universal-death-market-which-public
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Universal Death Market - Which public figures will die before 2025? [Unlinked Free Response]
heqovxwg2xo
null
1,183.350801
YES
3786947a2f3f
n5ohuvb6lmk
false
6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rfa8n4fl5dk", "label": "GazDownright", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I was betting on this: \"if AI narration becomes indistinguishable from human narration to the untrained ear, it would resolve as YES.\". I agree it should be placed in the description as well tho.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Patrik Cihal
28RJ23fKDFMr4Mo8YQ4f
public
contract
1,716,561,500,268
will-human-narration-for-audiobooks
patrik
https://firebasestorage.…184-1140b99c8021
Will human narration for audiobooks become mostly unnecessary before 2026?
rfa8n4fl5dk
0.625475
411.599684
YES
null
wruiycfxvqg
false
JDWfUBan8sfznLDCqOCavHToD5a2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "DKEIWnUtpDgTXVKdi40YGWj6f7x1", "label": "creator", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Official announcement of NET launch date, this market can resolve NO: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-4", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-4", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
DP
unBUGj0dh4qVNTmRsOnw
public
contract
1,716,561,535,424
will-starshipsuperheavys-fourth-fli
dp9000
https://firebasestorage.…9e7-7657a7df8de2
Will Starship–SuperHeavy's fourth flight have a planned trajectory that is fully orbital?
null
0.010186
1,670.306247
NO
null
d9zuiwx2e7s
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "f3yzlf2qba", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F32kqjn6Vqs.jpg?alt=media&token=b0786be0-51dc-4eb8-ad2f-94c270409942", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
LkPCpjA6WImIfMByv4Un
public
contract
1,716,561,680,605
universal-death-market-which-public
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Universal Death Market - Which public figures will die before 2025? [Unlinked Free Response]
heqovxwg2xo
null
1,772.060807
NO
23086409a434
87mwz9qvmyf
false
rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Of ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "course", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " there's a gd barb scout in the fog on Farkleberry Island. Because WHY NOT", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "<flips table>", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matt C. Wilson
YqGpt8xI52LgkFbrmt5M
public
contract
1,716,561,867,622
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-89
MattCWilson
https://firebasestorage.…c23-a3b854776865
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 89)
null
null
1,187.909672
YES
57bc7e236512
7q8iskx9vy8
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Using the principle \"If you know the answer, resolve the question\" should I resolve early?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kongo Landwalker
5Hfd1u8eSRcBSXEKumFa
public
contract
1,716,561,897,584
within-one-month-after-pivot-will-i
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Within one month after Pivot, will I create a market, which generates enough resource to open a new market?
null
0.017897
2,180.906185
NO
null
ip7nydf66gl
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fun09ng_94k.png?alt=media&token=bbc76ebb-50e6-4d7d-9f55-dc3917db2336", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "IF resolves NO ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
7cLbLgQFzsYJpAa8eqFw
public
contract
1,716,562,053,703
rottentomatoes-2k24-critics-yes-vs
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
RottenTomatoes 2k24: Critics [YES] vs. Fans [NO] 🍿🍅⚔️
null
null
767.641535
YES
301690ce45d7
tljl45ux8gb
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "d9zuiwx2e7s", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " she was 126! time to head off to that big blockchain in the sky 🚀", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
LkPCpjA6WImIfMByv4Un
public
contract
1,716,562,146,305
universal-death-market-which-public
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Universal Death Market - Which public figures will die before 2025? [Unlinked Free Response]
heqovxwg2xo
null
1,183.350801
YES
3786947a2f3f
12rpfv05d7u
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6qv7y6cqzit", "label": "ChristopherRandles", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I assumed all else equal.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
9QsfOW232lNnFj6ASRrZ
public
contract
1,716,562,160,588
what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
What is worse than committing a financial crime?
0awdogaxj1ro
null
null
null
null
k8gz0jzdrnk
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Closure is moved to the end of May to get rid of this failed idea market sooner. It will not be moved again.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It is still possible to participate in this game and change outcomes.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kongo Landwalker
ecyMMDNAuJw50X3ffOO3
public
contract
1,716,562,161,625
authoritarian-nomic-game
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Authoritarian Nomic game
null
null
8.071334
NO
68ceb3b2d3af
81v7bt633sj
false
rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": 1, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Manifold - Clear build queue, set to Ancient Walls, Water Mill.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Antium - Clear build queue, set to Siege Tower, Amphitheater.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Builder in Manifold - set destination to swamp tile with \"Drain the swamp!\" tack.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Relocate map tack for Halicarnassus one tile west.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Add map tack one hex northwest of Halicarnassus tack for Harbor.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Alfonzo - set destination one hex northwest, one west. hang in there, buddy.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Bartholomew - set destination one hex northeast, skip turn.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Floyd - set destination two hexes west.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ichabod - set destination two hexes south.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "SS Bomboclaat - set destination four hexes sw of present location of SS Albatross.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "SS Albatross - set destination three hexes northwest, three west.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If possible, buy Isaac Newton with faith.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sell diplomatic favor, one at a time, to the bidder offering the largest amount of one time gold, until either we run out or no one's buying.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "orderedList" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matt C. Wilson
YqGpt8xI52LgkFbrmt5M
public
contract
1,716,562,397,103
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-89
MattCWilson
https://firebasestorage.…c23-a3b854776865
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 89)
null
null
1,187.909672
YES
57bc7e236512
u3c8c0ejzum
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No way in hell.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
5PUtgAEaM65iNvDvq0sY
public
contract
1,716,562,700,045
biden-visits-gaza-by-end-2024
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Biden visits Gaza by end 2024
null
null
null
null
null
zxl0997sncd
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This market is so Xi Jinping.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
VUqgCYoN1MMGXMFV9SYA
public
contract
1,716,562,811,461
is-xi-jinping-mentally-retarded
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Is Xi Jinping mentally retarded?
null
null
null
null
null
z3dxhhl24
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If England wins, do they rename it the Pound 2024?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
kzJN0cS63EIddWBzVwED
public
contract
1,716,562,864,325
who-will-win-euro-2024
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Who will win Euro 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
s1cdkm1ry1g
false
rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2", "label": "komplexkonjugat", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " - may I see the following views:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Great People view.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Prices and options for purchasing luxuries (any we don't have) from Pedro, Teddy. I'd prefer to see the offers expressed in gold/turn; if they make a bid in one-time gold, and you don't mind, counteroffer gold per turn to see what they'd accept.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Strategy view, search for Niter.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Booger - harbor placement adjacency values.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Manifold - tile purchase costs.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "City states view.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Question for you: my presumption here is that asking for deal info, with no intent to purchase ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "this turn", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", counts as \"screenshots of other views.\" (Unlike last turn, where yeah I was going for a mini-algo of purchase optimization, in which case it's deffo an instruction.) I dunno where you stand on that? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matt C. Wilson
YqGpt8xI52LgkFbrmt5M
public
contract
1,716,562,924,898
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-89
MattCWilson
https://firebasestorage.…c23-a3b854776865
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 89)
null
null
1,187.909672
YES
57bc7e236512
t3r5kukh38
false
P7rLJmOcMDZGzqOSdPR1AdeH2Lg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gmbq02tnl78", "label": "RanaG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Yeah, multiple past experiences + you working for McKinsey made me pretty confident. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
houstonEuler
fykEZi2rlnefDLgto4Wc
public
contract
1,716,562,938,533
will-ranag-get-her-us-visa-approved
houstonEuler
https://firebasestorage.…e7b-0ce121292ad7
will @RanaG get her US visa approved before her travel date on May 30?
gmbq02tnl78
0.95
1,570.747552
YES
null
f19oa2trhwl
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "NOT LOW ENOUGH", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
qJCjpKrayp5O5oGOVvCf
public
contract
1,716,562,942,788
will-market-creation-go-below-100-p
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will Market Creation count go below 100 post pivot?
null
null
null
null
null
iaz3j9gcv9
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lb8o22gc62", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "label": "BoltonBailey", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
XB3gpmFG29GfkD0dmQYm
public
contract
1,716,562,977,263
which-movies-will-have-a-70-rottent
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which movies will have a >70% RottenTomatoes score two weeks after their release?
lb8o22gc62
null
1,130.022339
NO
e7a613864a5a
s2ngl6jm3m
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "q8UtUibG0iYsRg0YbVeQUvRg9HD2", "label": "LucasPrietoAl", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1cz6wvw/dune_part_two_has_ended_its_domestic_run_after_11/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1cz6wvw/dune_part_two_has_ended_its_domestic_run_after_11/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Might want to make a ruling on when you'll call this (as the mod set it to EOY, and Dune is no longer making meaningful box office, 750M+ behind)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
yWJoem0NKv7BMzr5dJxo
public
contract
1,716,563,150,990
will-dune-2-beat-the-barbie-movie-i
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Dune 2 beat the Barbie movie in world wide earnings?
zqfq8ojvopq
0.013817
3,175.83481
NO
null
4qr9k33vijq
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Corrected picture and black's updated hash", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "65e43664f35418214105354fd8abbfe2f5f1aed7c2192c4710040055825c96e3", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FqpPvo-O9Dc.png?alt=media&token=51541fce-f554-418c-88e7-984cc918c979", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1", "label": "Mich", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2", "label": "ChristopherRandles", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kongo Landwalker
vHgWjP8xwUXXOdlBM4wq
public
contract
1,716,563,281,449
simultaneouspredictor-chess-will-wh
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Manifold plays simultaneous predictor chess, will white win?
null
0.54997
178.01709
NO
null
m1clm3q3hug
false
mrWm2AuHgjSoVgeYNvyCpUVcvpm2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cok20h23fcp", "label": "Tyranizard89", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I have 100% faith in the agenda brother, we will prevail!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Abraham
n8GdzHgc2kIIBXdRhqRC
public
contract
1,716,563,377,537
will-the-gorosei-be-proven-to-be-st
Abraham2a3c
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL7_tb_QD4TPXfXyzHc5i54_w1wuVUUR9Y4ONcVNMiZ=s96-c
Will the Gorosei be proven to be stronger then admirals in Egghead?
cok20h23fcp
null
null
null
null
137wu9bqnut
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1136 today", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
7X9Rj6ncF61JIWtByiJz
public
contract
1,716,563,387,932
will-manifold-engaged-users-drop-to
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Manifold Engaged Users drop to 1100 or lower before the end of July?
null
null
null
null
null
e5ptv9l3ubk
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Oh that happened fast", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1794022138757648810", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1794022138757648810", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
6VwJ6xRRYSfenLQyFTzf
public
contract
1,716,563,441,505
what-topics-or-who-will-elon-musk-t-0a7be0e1f6ef
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before July 4th? [ADD YOUR OWN]
null
null
1,663.517177
YES
dfe86c906f7a
ga2i9jxbgpp
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "RIP Kabosu😭 ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1794022138757648810", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1794022138757648810", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " That was a short fuse 💣 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lion
6VwJ6xRRYSfenLQyFTzf
public
contract
1,716,563,445,462
what-topics-or-who-will-elon-musk-t-0a7be0e1f6ef
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before July 4th? [ADD YOUR OWN]
null
null
0
YES
8e9d07a81f93
8z74h6qwdr6
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "j44cvdrdxaj", "label": "MartinModrak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " thanks, I'll resolve the option accordingly once I've checked the footage :)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
m2Pn9iimyqQHg28wIeDn
public
contract
1,716,563,454,044
megamarket-add-options-who-will-dir
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
[Mega-market - add options] Who will directly and intentionally kill someone in their lifetime?
j44cvdrdxaj
null
31.377132
YES
2f80e2a462ee
8amu26mtrbd
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "label": "FranklinBaldo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " $50, $60, & $70 can resolve YES", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FfNO9ng-e7p.png?alt=media&token=4d7ee026-79fd-4f11-9f68-e506b8200888", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
HmFJ3proz5Uy0JueXoeB
public
contract
1,716,563,502,287
how-much-money-will-i-make-in-the-c
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
How much money will I make in the Creator Partner Program from Feb 26 - May 26, 2024?
null
null
237.671437
YES
bb1dae647384
sc1y92thsps
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "label": "AmmonLam", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ^", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Apr 19, 2024 low 15,222.78", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
IcjfxMqnuoRCf9wcXTP1
public
contract
1,716,563,508,015
will-these-indexes-hit-this-high-pr
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will these Indexes hit this high price 📈 before low price 📉
l0gvzm0s8gh
null
null
null
null
fntgjad5wxt
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think this is something that might pick up interest from people talking about it in real life", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
ecyMMDNAuJw50X3ffOO3
public
contract
1,716,563,658,986
authoritarian-nomic-game
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Authoritarian Nomic game
null
null
17.356782
NO
68ceb3b2d3af
814xacqyp6x
false
mrWm2AuHgjSoVgeYNvyCpUVcvpm2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "luma is a celestial wragon victim, let him BE", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Abraham
AjN03YaWMjVtNciC93c4
public
contract
1,716,563,666,517
bartolomeo-stock
Abraham2a3c
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL7_tb_QD4TPXfXyzHc5i54_w1wuVUUR9Y4ONcVNMiZ=s96-c
Bartolomeo Stock
null
0.944151
521.575191
NO
null
raxon00sufk
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FIURcwgrvHs.jpg?alt=media&token=7b6ae90b-2e4c-484d-a806-53dea98ffc5f", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
LkPCpjA6WImIfMByv4Un
public
contract
1,716,563,721,426
universal-death-market-which-public
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Universal Death Market - Which public figures will die before 2025? [Unlinked Free Response]
heqovxwg2xo
null
1,183.350801
YES
3786947a2f3f
d23z1bvi4or
false
vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "this is such a hard one. the rumors are yes. but so hard. my prior on the rumors is strong. but, it might make more business sense to use gemini.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "absent rumors i put it at 30%. with rumors, i put it at 50-70%. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Campbell Hutcheson
7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ
public
contract
1,716,563,750,433
will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f
CampbellHutcheson
https://firebasestorage.…27a-29336c4bb2e3
Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
7n9ef2suk2x
false
vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zzadjzfdugf", "label": "Mira", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " what do you see them prioritizing that moves your opinion?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Campbell Hutcheson
7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ
public
contract
1,716,563,825,362
will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f
CampbellHutcheson
https://firebasestorage.…27a-29336c4bb2e3
Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?
zzadjzfdugf
null
null
null
null
26j0o9lqzw
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1794022958996033811", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1794022958996033811", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1794022138757648810", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1794022138757648810", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
txeNNpxOXAs4nc6YxaLh
public
contract
1,716,563,868,700
will-elon-musk-make-2-or-more-tweet-5a96c03b5372
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts on May 24, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
null
0.807212
1,134.807472
YES
null
cc70odwzjeo
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think Predict is doing a great job running this market, just want to give them kudos for that. I'm going to watch WWDC just for this market 😅", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ
public
contract
1,716,563,878,167
will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?
null
0.657268
8.168988
NO
null
b85j173n9re
false
vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gmc2guvmmaf", "label": "Marnix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " It resolves NO.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Marnix
iumIYvPsg6yuDiNz8arp
public
contract
1,716,564,034,612
what-will-manifolds-big-pivot-be-ad
Marnix
https://firebasestorage.…d53-a4e0da9e141d
🚧What will Manifold's Big Pivot entail? [ADD RESPONSES]
tphz951hbb
null
57.946763
NO
a28a211b8f29
3fek1gmcn4i
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Btw thanks for continuing to make these :)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
hsVhlV2SOCRPAJwoXzzG
public
contract
1,716,564,136,305
what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-mo-ec37977c76d6
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
What will be true of the xkcd on Monday, May 27th, 2024?
null
null
89.041388
NO
0f96c2825662
8fkw12n3zh5
false
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jJ8pny5RHgN2G4pKfJukjEsGffm1", "label": "Administrator", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " please resolve.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thx!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tricky Duck
rO4oCBs37SrXOot0VEOl
public
contract
1,716,564,243,007
224-18261157847f
TrickyDuck
https://firebasestorage.…b03-a48bf6d36fa7
2+2=4
null
0.767236
67.422225
YES
null
sef9osg636f
false
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jJ8pny5RHgN2G4pKfJukjEsGffm1", "label": "Administrator", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " pls resolve.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thx!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tricky Duck
Mw4Yuz8UCiahfIyjTdz2
public
contract
1,716,564,289,099
will-emilia-like-o-brother-where-ar
TrickyDuck
https://firebasestorage.…b03-a48bf6d36fa7
Will Emilia like O Brother Where Art Thou
null
0.329799
15.08194
NO
null
xfb32nj7na
false
yZ4vp93rmQfBXllZUiI2WKNJaeF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is Taiwan accounted as China, or specifically mainland China?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ElectricSteam
p2rNjkbzwn76o9OpPYVF
public
contract
1,716,564,299,273
will-nvidia-ceo-visit-to-china-in-2
ElectricSteam
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNq3o7W1unNrbg962fUXzL_KPTLhynNsWcqusZ7gHi-2M=s96-c
Will Nvidia CEO visit to China in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
od1f7dfdbof
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3fek1gmcn4i", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " for the next one, if there is one, it might help keep it fresh if one of the options is a wildcard humorous one that changes each time e.g. all of the letters in the word 'rationalussy' are present somewhere in the comic text ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
hsVhlV2SOCRPAJwoXzzG
public
contract
1,716,564,308,931
what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-mo-ec37977c76d6
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
What will be true of the xkcd on Monday, May 27th, 2024?
3fek1gmcn4i
null
89.041388
NO
0f96c2825662
7oe357bj7aw
false
yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3fek1gmcn4i", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Happy to! The only concern I have now is that I don’t see where I’m getting the bonuses for earnings from making these. I will keep making them as long as I can, because as for right now, my net worth isn’t losing too much, so it’s all good", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
EBurk
hsVhlV2SOCRPAJwoXzzG
public
contract
1,716,564,309,059
what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-mo-ec37977c76d6
EBurk
https://firebasestorage.…0e3-2fdb94d99bad
What will be true of the xkcd on Monday, May 27th, 2024?
3fek1gmcn4i
null
null
null
null
dmw2okjw244
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Registration for candidates closes on 4th June. If there is no indication by the end of that week that Dominic Cummings is setting up a new party or getting involved in a minor existing party within a day or two of registration closing I will resolve this to NO.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Simon Grayson
qnsbS6y0w3DRsJhireJe
public
contract
1,716,564,380,651
will-dominic-cummingss-new-politica
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
Will Dominic Cummings's new political party have any success in the 2024 UK general election?
null
0.06617
1,162.353677
NO
null
l4gjys557ke
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "NVM :-)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
uTYfPVqW3OP8OUldGLoX
public
contract
1,716,564,404,302
will-robin-hanson-adopt-a-religion-e33c9485f238
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038
null
50
813.500495
NO
null
tumz0bj29z
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7oe357bj7aw", "label": "EBurk", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I don't know if it applies to multiple choice markets too, but I heard from ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " the other day that for binary markets, the market creator now gets the payout from the shares held in the market liquidity itself, so if it resolves in the opposite direction to the odds at closing, then you actually get more than the market creation cost back :)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
hsVhlV2SOCRPAJwoXzzG
public
contract
1,716,564,486,987
what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-mo-ec37977c76d6
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
What will be true of the xkcd on Monday, May 27th, 2024?
3fek1gmcn4i
null
89.041388
NO
0f96c2825662
yv133h47br
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "t3r5kukh38", "label": "houstonEuler", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " interesting. It did seem quite straightforward the moment I told the intake officer who I worked for", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rana G
fykEZi2rlnefDLgto4Wc
public
contract
1,716,564,530,275
will-ranag-get-her-us-visa-approved
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
will @RanaG get her US visa approved before her travel date on May 30?
gmbq02tnl78
null
null
null
null
ubn3lcrqhw
false
yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "od1f7dfdbof", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " That could be good. I try to at least throw in some holiday ones when those come around. But I’ll see what I can do. If what you say is true about the payout, maybe I’ll try adding responses in future ones to see what happens.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Right now I’m definitely not going to put a lot of effort into these though, because I have some bigger personal stuff going on in the next month or so.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
EBurk
hsVhlV2SOCRPAJwoXzzG
public
contract
1,716,564,653,224
what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-mo-ec37977c76d6
EBurk
https://firebasestorage.…0e3-2fdb94d99bad
What will be true of the xkcd on Monday, May 27th, 2024?
3fek1gmcn4i
null
null
null
null
2x3vmy4jmde
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "l4gjys557ke", "label": "jim", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " let's get those percentages up 😁", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ernie
uTYfPVqW3OP8OUldGLoX
public
contract
1,716,564,753,036
will-robin-hanson-adopt-a-religion-e33c9485f238
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038
l4gjys557ke
null
null
null
null
mgpum6n01b
false
EwhWtm4vwqZwxqVFrIL61ieAOU52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "utrusmjqbr", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Antitrust laws being enacted seem less likely with a Trump presidency. Anyone more knowledgeable that can weigh in?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
João Bosco Lucena
Htdxs7nnjOw7dOMVA311
public
contract
1,716,564,947,082
will-live-nation-the-parent-company
jBosc
https://firebasestorage.…249-795cac62db01
Will Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, be order to be broken up by the USA Government by EOY 2027?
utrusmjqbr
0.538478
153.486318
NO
null
3yitydn0m5z
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So, gonna repurpose my comment from another market like this that we also have frozen:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "-----------------------", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thanks for making this market! I think it's a good market and reasonable for you to have run it as you have, but I'm going to post a wall of text at you now for reasons mostly not to do with you so please don't take it as criticism of your market!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I spent a lot of time following this because of the controversial Polymarket on the subject. I also talked about it a lot with my fellow mods, particularly ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/jacksonpolack", "target": "_self" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "@jacksonpolack", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ".", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Based on everything we've read about this today, we think its factually inaccurate to say that the Ethereum ETF itself was approved today. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Other users have pointed out this problem with the criteria, and they've traded on it. We'd like for traders to be able to expect that Manifold will try to be correct about stuff like this, so we want to make sure we're getting this right!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "See this ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://coinpedia.org/news/ethereum-etf-approval-the-role-of-19b-4-filings-and-s-1-forms/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Coinpedia article,", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " where they explain the process of approval in detail:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "The journey towards the spot Ethereum ETF’s approval is a critical moment for the crypto market. A spot ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://markets.coinpedia.org/ethereum-etf/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "Ethereum ETF", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": ", which would hold Ether as its underlying asset directly, needs approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to trade on stock exchanges.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "But there’s a lot that goes in behind the scenes to make this possible.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "The journey to approval primarily traverses two crucial components: the 19b-4 filings and the S-1 registration statements.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The journey to approval of the ETF goes ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "through ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "the 19b-4 and the S-1. Neither on its own is the approval itself. What happened today was the approval of the proposed rule change that allows for the ETF if and only if the S-1 also goes through, and the rules change just actually is not the same thing as the final approval.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "While many headlines today said \"ETF approved!\", headlines are often sensational about these kinds of things and I don't think it's correct to resolve on them when informed traders are expecting the market to resolve based on the actual definitions of the words used in the market.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We can see tha", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://archive.is/GePH0", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "t Bloomberg took this more seriously", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", with a much more measured headline and article:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": "", "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FivR7XAAYQy.png?alt=media&token=ad4c9772-be98-41d1-8c16-477c503551bd", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "The Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday paved the way for trading in exchange-traded funds that invest directly in the cryptocurrency Ether, putting the digital-asset industry on the cusp of a significant milestone.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "In a first-of-its-kind blessing, the SEC signed off on a proposal by exchanges including ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://archive.is/o/GePH0/https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CBOE:US", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "Cboe Global Markets Inc.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": " to list products tied to the world’s second-biggest cryptocurrency. The move, which had seemed unlikely as recently as last week, removes a key hurdle for spot Ether ETF trading in the US. Issuers now need a separate sign-off from the regulator; no deadline has been set for that decision.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Usually this kind of technicality doesn't make a difference, but in cases like this where the exact timing of the appproval is part of the resolution criteria, it's actually very important for a correct resolution!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Manifold has been more lax about these kinds of technicalities in the past, but we're trying to take everything more seriously as the site intends to introduce cash prizes soon and Mana needs to be treated more seriously.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "/end speech", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So none of this is what you meant when you made the market, obviously. But it's still a question that some traders brought up, and it would be bad for those traders' bets to resolve against them when they were right about the facts.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "However, given that this market could never have resolved YES in the first place according to the definitions outlined above, it means this market was unfortunately doomed from the start. For that reason, rather than resolving it to NO my thought is that the best resolution is N/A, which cancels all trades and gives everyone back their mana so no one loses.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/Carlosab83", "target": "_self" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": { "id": "sNwe94NAjSbhu1H1nJdUFBynW712", "label": "Carlosab83", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Is that okay with you? Open to hearing if we are in fact wrong about the facts in some way here. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
781x8buSmeM9CTkpk5dh
public
contract
1,716,565,267,536
will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a-47f9daaf241b
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF the May 23rd, 2024?
jlzc4gq6h9g
null
null
null
null
hcl3xdmdt15
false
MRjW2CLX2ZWYm97PMwvTdYSTJ5g1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Due to the upcoming general election, the SoS decision deadline has been extended. The result is now not expected until the 4th of October. I have therefore extended the close date of this market.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2024-05-24/hcws506", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2024-05-24/hcws506", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
alh
NFqre7tzfCWutpD9wI30
public
contract
1,716,565,300,309
will-the-lower-thames-crossing-gain
alh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJOYqNwjWqVxrdyfZkgI7wzcYEKBtW2Wyl50riBsXx4IQ=s96-c
Will the Lower Thames Crossing gain Development Consent?
null
0.591458
13.542056
YES
null
89nqxw82cew
false
PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLvFc_24vSM", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLvFc_24vSM", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
0xSMW
SrU0UnpFIAntHe2zbPLU
public
contract
1,716,565,553,347
rabbit-r1-scam-what-will-coffeezill
0xSMW
https://firebasestorage.…3a9-c48b1a251e30
Rabbit R1 scam - what will Coffeezilla uncover?
null
null
373.275109
YES
94c3ec823147
10uoufmuz6k
false
PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "89nqxw82cew", "label": "StephenMWalkerII", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Part 2 of investigation", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
0xSMW
SrU0UnpFIAntHe2zbPLU
public
contract
1,716,565,563,073
rabbit-r1-scam-what-will-coffeezill
0xSMW
https://firebasestorage.…3a9-c48b1a251e30
Rabbit R1 scam - what will Coffeezilla uncover?
89nqxw82cew
null
373.275109
YES
94c3ec823147
56nujdpw754
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Has ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1791037547273203815", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1791037547273203815", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " been considered?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
6VwJ6xRRYSfenLQyFTzf
public
contract
1,716,565,664,498
what-topics-or-who-will-elon-musk-t-0a7be0e1f6ef
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before July 4th? [ADD YOUR OWN]
null
null
198.719637
YES
1ad97727db17
ccwf1etfyvu
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "56nujdpw754", "label": "ChristopherRandles", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I didn't add it because it's a bit obscure - based on his past judgment calls and political leanings I assumed he was referring to \"Dem/Liberal\" philosophy? it's up to ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "label": "Lion", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " but I don't think it's a comment directly on AI safety", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
6VwJ6xRRYSfenLQyFTzf
public
contract
1,716,565,809,200
what-topics-or-who-will-elon-musk-t-0a7be0e1f6ef
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before July 4th? [ADD YOUR OWN]
56nujdpw754
null
1,663.517177
YES
dfe86c906f7a
uqp67xkkyjk
false
GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xcd31tsqjt", "label": "colorednoise", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " It's too far away from the elections, unlike in March 2015, for that.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nathan Wei
CUjdL819yyKUHQd1zAl7
public
contract
1,716,565,826,428
will-bibi-netanyahu-be-invited-to-a
nathanwei
https://firebasestorage.…47c-77836969b89a
Will Bibi Netanyahu be invited to address the 118th US Congress?
dx2hlxryik
0.955872
39.335176
YES
null
niuezxca5uo
false
yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ImEvI9xignTu2PqWk1lfpw1L2sf1", "label": "MarsMartian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " do you have insider info? Haha", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Paper Boy
CD010okuK8AWLkGaQaUT
public
contract
1,716,566,175,010
who-will-be-trumps-vp-nominee
PaperBoy
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c
Who will be Trump’s VP Nominee?
null
null
3,288.052854
YES
938fd38a6f3c