id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2 classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2 values | commentType stringclasses 1 value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2 values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
z1v9nsxyao | false | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "56nujdpw754",
"label": "ChristopherRandles",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I'm with ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " here. This aligns more with the dangers of a 1984 dystopia than directly with AI safety itself, which I assume isn't the thought/intention of the submission. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lion | 6VwJ6xRRYSfenLQyFTzf | public | contract | 1,716,566,419,327 | what-topics-or-who-will-elon-musk-t-0a7be0e1f6ef | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before July 4th? [ADD YOUR OWN] | 56nujdpw754 | null | 0 | YES | 8e9d07a81f93 |
dbv6562w0uu | false | sNwe94NAjSbhu1H1nJdUFBynW712 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "s38b3zruwmf",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " it's closed or I need to do something?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Carlos | 781x8buSmeM9CTkpk5dh | public | contract | 1,716,566,624,949 | will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a-47f9daaf241b | Carlosab83 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLyJZsUdw5JLIMzZvOs7_0V0KC5Od5MDjr_BJ5fFW3w=s96-c | Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF the May 23rd, 2024? | ya6d6jlsfgo | 0.939684 | 269.08703 | YES | null |
f91vyy389z | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "dbv6562w0uu",
"label": "Carlosab83",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " You don't need to do anything, just leave it closed for now.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | 781x8buSmeM9CTkpk5dh | public | contract | 1,716,566,742,528 | will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a-47f9daaf241b | Joshua | Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF the May 23rd, 2024? | ya6d6jlsfgo | null | null | null | null | |
lmwstoa9ir | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "3yitydn0m5z",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I should also say this is all way too much effort for us all to spend on the resolution market with 20 traders, of course.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "But I think it's an important precedent that Manifold will try to get the facts right whenever possible.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "And when there's a clear contradiction between the spirit of the market/intent of the asker and the facts that traders correctly point out and trade on, we have the option to just cancel the question so no one gets burned too bad from trading on different assumptions.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "We're trying to use N/A less often these days, but this is a case where it's clearly called for IMO.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | 781x8buSmeM9CTkpk5dh | public | contract | 1,716,566,930,490 | will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a-47f9daaf241b | Joshua | Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF the May 23rd, 2024? | jlzc4gq6h9g | null | null | null | null | |
uqf99us8umq | false | yhMjQ7Ph9AgzMQHPSnWJ4EwFVu12 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "1e3qe17uxm8",
"label": "parhizj",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I don't see any reason not to count these Volvo trucks, no. They're still using an Aurora control system, even if the control system is tightly-integrated with this particular model of truck. As long as third parties can buy or rent these trucks from Volvo and operate them on public roads, I'd count that.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "However, note that the Tech Crunch article also has this line:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The trucks will be in autonomous mode and will still have a human safety operator behind the wheel to take control if needed.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "My criteria did say that there can't be a human driver present. So these trucks would ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "not",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " count if this is the case. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The other article does say:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The autonomous version of the truck features an array of sensors and cameras to power Aurora’s Level 4 autonomous driving system, which enables the truck to operate without a human behind the wheel.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "So, to be clear, a YES resolution does require that the trucks ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "actually are",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " operating fully autonomously somewhere, not just that they are ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "capable of",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " operating autonomously. As long as there's any location where a fully autonomous truck is operating on behalf of a third party (i.e., not just an internal test for Aurora or Volvo), that's good enough, even if there are other places where they have a human driver present for regulatory or safety reasons.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(If I recall correctly, part of Aurora's marketing last year was that they believed they were going to get regulatory clearance for full autonomous operation on a couple of highways in Texas, and I wanted the market to include whether or not they actually succeed in getting that clearance.)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | NLeseul | UBHKK3434WseCwHW4JzB | public | contract | 1,716,567,198,760 | will-aurora-innovations-driverless | NLeseul | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5NPcSyIQZFZcOY7wcwSutdgrXKzq-TcO3gnn6UvQ=s96-c | Will Aurora Innovation's driverless vehicle control system be used commercially by the end of 2024? | 1e3qe17uxm8 | null | null | null | null |
cst9o0pijs8 | false | Re8h1ArV7Ef34NqrtE7Xj52Dzkd2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Tom is wasting balls ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jared Ash | WnjjxxZ7N0ls3WJB1BXm | public | contract | 1,716,567,401,045 | ipl-match-winner-super-market-yes-f | JaredAsh | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLBxqzOgEx9QHC_vvcs11Ze0naKE7nZryoKi74m2D-A=s96-c | 🏏 IPL Match Winner Super Market. “Yes” for the first team to win, “No” for the second. 50 Mana bonus per game. | null | null | 3,069.705122 | NO | 9ea524821bdd |
ujwdjakc4l | false | Re8h1ArV7Ef34NqrtE7Xj52Dzkd2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "cst9o0pijs8",
"label": "JaredAsh",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Bad replacement for Buttler ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jared Ash | WnjjxxZ7N0ls3WJB1BXm | public | contract | 1,716,567,445,534 | ipl-match-winner-super-market-yes-f | JaredAsh | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLBxqzOgEx9QHC_vvcs11Ze0naKE7nZryoKi74m2D-A=s96-c | 🏏 IPL Match Winner Super Market. “Yes” for the first team to win, “No” for the second. 50 Mana bonus per game. | cst9o0pijs8 | null | 3,069.705122 | NO | 9ea524821bdd |
la0o6lkr4t | false | Re8h1ArV7Ef34NqrtE7Xj52Dzkd2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Dude needs to get out, batting at 50 SR",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jared Ash | WnjjxxZ7N0ls3WJB1BXm | public | contract | 1,716,567,761,739 | ipl-match-winner-super-market-yes-f | JaredAsh | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLBxqzOgEx9QHC_vvcs11Ze0naKE7nZryoKi74m2D-A=s96-c | 🏏 IPL Match Winner Super Market. “Yes” for the first team to win, “No” for the second. 50 Mana bonus per game. | null | null | 3,069.705122 | NO | 9ea524821bdd |
0lwg6fqkx9ub | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "7v6gi6kmyt9",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4joL2a6JY2TJdhEn66rEMgr56Rh1",
"label": "GuilhermeCosta",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " can this resolve? market closed, illusion nowhere near #1.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | Cx28q3zq5Lz2q9IBY8Qj | public | contract | 1,716,568,008,353 | dua-lipa-will-reach-the-first-posit | Ziddletwix | Dua lipa will reach the first position of the hot 100 billboard with the release of the song ILLUSION? | 7v6gi6kmyt9 | 0.024002 | 782.460883 | NO | null | |
g4gwpyax3s | false | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Update?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ibozz91 | 2UNpGEanwbFybQWDDbFb | public | contract | 1,716,568,029,260 | botw-stands-for-breath-of-the-wild | Ibozz91 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c | BOTW stands for breath of the wild. will i beat it by 2099? | null | 0.66298 | 45.992585 | YES | null |
p9hk89ec5y | false | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Geez if people can copyright their voices the lawyers are in for an infinity of payouts. And creators are going to be constantly sniped from here to infinity on this ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Or else we'll just use our of copyright voices like Groucho Marx for everything",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ernie | UpfNoFH6Q6sU3HAZ2SzR | public | contract | 1,716,568,200,781 | will-scarlett-johansson-sue-openai | Ernie | Will Scarlett Johansson sue OpenAI and/or Sam Altman personally in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
au5p6vn4jf | false | MCbUkwjw7ebMPbGwctaZmM1ca2U2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "the trolley one is such a good question ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ZYC | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,568,563,960 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | zyc | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | null | null | 53.714842 | NO | 9daf9dd2653b | |
fhbgomf1vxt | false | cnpKbTPGJzWA1ncQF505049gbw43 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://videocardz.com/newz/nvidia-rtx-5090-founders-edition-rumored-to-feature-16-gddr7-memory-modules-in-denser-design",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://videocardz.com/newz/nvidia-rtx-5090-founders-edition-rumored-to-feature-16-gddr7-memory-modules-in-denser-design",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Svilen Todorov | Q01VuOuGzti839PDwcyH | public | contract | 1,716,568,629,241 | how-much-vram-will-nvidia-5090-or-c | Tenoke | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0XzaC0VAAdfb0oDUJxpxvQvZ9rj2t_9fCSUgPkWg=s96-c | How much vram will Nvidia 5090 (or closest equivalent Nvidia GPU) have? | null | 0.079412 | 1.061816 | NO | null |
s0cudyyb0e | false | ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "70g8phrp5zj",
"label": "ZaneMiller",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I just got a notification that said \"No one liked your comment\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Zane | seWMU9Bu3WNqbN65alpN | public | contract | 1,716,568,651,116 | will-the-next-president-of-the-unit-79828d9c3dc5 | ZaneMiller | Will the next President of the United States die in office? | 70g8phrp5zj | 0.315875 | 142.44225 | NO | null | |
3ongmkrw3qk | false | qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "d23z1bvi4or",
"label": "CampbellHutcheson",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " the rumors are compelling, but I just don't understand how this would work. Apple has doubled down on privacy, they're going to want an LLM on-device for siri. Sending requests to the cloud, especially openai's servers, is a nightmare for the privacy play they've made. They have chips ready, but need smaller models. Afaik, there's nothing interesting to run locally from OpenAI.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Unless they've been working on that together in secret, but I'd put that probability much lower than 66%.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | robm | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,716,568,915,461 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | robm | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | d23z1bvi4or | 0.657268 | 3,604.27868 | NO | null | |
ekj7j1d5ku4 | false | Hl00u2lWwcgYwYV92yvK1uWTPav1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I assume this is supposed to be 2024?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bob Snodgrass | yBMw7cPmCg99zCehzh1P | public | contract | 1,716,569,280,462 | will-lewis-hamilton-finish-on-the-p-6474446abec8 | BobSnodgrass | Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix? | null | null | null | null | null | |
vuzl1dqhjmc | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "NcivO1mLv7OXNcrkuo2h6Iw65ok1",
"label": "KenK",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " resolves NO",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | QK5LfbkRcnxNQQcpzRG6 | public | contract | 1,716,569,421,791 | will-devin-booker-me-the-nba-league | Ziddletwix | Will Devin Booker me the NBA League MVP in 2023/24 season? | null | null | null | null | null | |
82qu6ct1c7x | false | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "mjnsvbwqby",
"label": "dwax",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Fixed it!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | James | wKQ2d0jb8y4optqwQwNb | public | contract | 1,716,569,424,279 | will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-3cf3eb794076 | JamesGrugett | Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 33 and 34? | mjnsvbwqby | null | null | null | null | |
ormwva4wop | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "b850pwycph5",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "LvEi8bGDeTVb0eBG554pEzZaBXg1",
"label": "FinnSproule",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | 3GP225pY0LzYHrOrF0VW | public | contract | 1,716,569,443,337 | who-will-win-the-nba-regular-season | Ziddletwix | Who will win the NBA regular season MVP award for the 2023-2024 season | b850pwycph5 | null | 82.923709 | YES | d55e1d7a29ab | |
1b5plsmvgjl | false | jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "p9hk89ec5y",
"label": "Ernie",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " You can't copyright a voice, only recordings of that voice. She's only got a copyright claim if they used recordings she owns to train the AI, and even that's iffy. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "More likely she'd sue for violation of her publicity rights or trademark, although I think a trademark claim would be very weak.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://news.northeastern.edu/2024/05/23/scarlett-johansson-open-ai/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://news.northeastern.edu/2024/05/23/scarlett-johansson-open-ai/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Hyperlincoln | UpfNoFH6Q6sU3HAZ2SzR | public | contract | 1,716,569,572,861 | will-scarlett-johansson-sue-openai | Hyperlincoln | Will Scarlett Johansson sue OpenAI and/or Sam Altman personally in 2024? | p9hk89ec5y | 0.603653 | 1,747.24099 | YES | null | |
bw8qdxmicie | false | 4riEolq08YSVMg6GArRX7r4u5wk1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ilc0lndmzhs",
"label": "TonyGao",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Ah, I notice that I heavily favor the latter. I was stymied by the suggestion that this is about how they actually think rather than hiw I think they think.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Tracy Harms | c0lgpEGRtusMV64SutlK | public | contract | 1,716,569,683,090 | do-you-bet-on-manifold-based-on-tex | TracyHarms | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKwX8bEpVTyS_SFiZjatythaw9ZQG6fsp6PuvnJiZdJOFtEaVXw=s96-c | Do you bet on Manifold based on textualism or originalism? | b0l66c6609p | null | null | null | null |
iih3k8wh8kq | false | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.happierlivesinstitute.org/report/happiness-for-the-whole-family/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.happierlivesinstitute.org/report/happiness-for-the-whole-family/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "November 2023: Update to our analysis",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "We have made ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.happierlivesinstitute.org/report/talking-through-depression-the-cost-effectiveness-of-psychotherapy-in-lmics-revised-and-expanded/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "a substantial update to our psychotherapy report",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ". This 90+ page report details new methods as well as an updated cost-effectiveness analysis of StrongMinds and a novel cost-effectiveness analysis of Friendship Bench. We now estimate StrongMinds to produce 30 WELLBYs per $1,000 donated (or 3.7 times more than GiveDirectly cash transfers).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "See our ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "c-link",
"href": "https://www.happierlivesinstitute.org/changelog/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "changelog",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " for previous updates.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Tetra | RNJR71nqEEh5pbsWMKOR | public | contract | 1,716,569,927,024 | what-will-hli-estimate-the-value-of | Tetraspace | What will HLI estimate the value of StrongMinds’ intervention to be as a multiple of cash in July 2024? | null | 0.285172 | 364.541203 | NO | null | |
x9ctijh48o | false | EKnSYyz71XadjA1gChNwxubpp6J3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "jwfpxzrmjg",
"label": "Jan53274",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " same",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonas Vollmer | yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj | public | contract | 1,716,570,104,439 | manifold-leadership-approval-rating | JonasVollmer | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqZTipfMh8me9ID8kOWIN_e0cMRyQ68DN8Ikyk2p3E=s96-c | 👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index] | e0v27y2uewj | 0.46 | 3,545.228524 | YES | null |
dumdxh1d0u | false | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "HLI now has no top recommendation (singular), and the two top recommendation",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "s",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " \"StrongMinds\" and \"Against Malaria Foundation\". Which sounds like maybe a \"HLI has no top recommendation\" resolution, if it happened today? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Tetra | b54PCn96rroaTatbX2HN | public | contract | 1,716,570,159,936 | what-will-the-happier-lives-insitut | Tetraspace | What will the Happier Lives Insitute's top recommendation be in July 2024? | null | null | 173.315283 | YES | 319692b16964 | |
j5hmzf6cz6 | false | 0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "x9ctijh48o",
"label": "JonasVollmer",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " you need to sell",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | colorednoise | yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj | public | contract | 1,716,570,233,957 | manifold-leadership-approval-rating | colorednoise | 👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index] | e0v27y2uewj | 0.46 | 349.691886 | YES | null | |
5rflg3eq2hl | false | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Now that “Other” is an option, I will clarify that “Other” is separate from “No New Members.”",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ibozz91 | HFF0NTg9Sd3K1WyNMAwp | public | contract | 1,716,570,302,810 | what-will-be-the-next-un-member-sta | Ibozz91 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c | What will be the next UN Member state? | null | null | 292.303566 | YES | 303665ab6bca |
fahd420pa6 | false | YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Avital is far, far too competent a person to be automated away at the same time as the rest of us. Vote of confidence in her, and away from her humility.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Rachel Shu | EeSeNRHRztdW4CsSYuZ9 | public | contract | 1,716,570,365,711 | will-avital-balwit-be-employed-in-2 | noumena | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgakM4ip6bShp4cqgoZZllrdWYfTh2VOuG82_FPQg=s96-c | Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work? | null | 0.777865 | 1,234.833955 | YES | null |
tf5kw19elr | false | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "c8rz3t1g7x6",
"label": "FoxKHTML",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " There's no implication he wishes he could have done something different, or intends to do something different next time. Feels more like an expression of sympathy than an apology to me.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Evan | OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY | public | contract | 1,716,570,595,179 | will-trump-apologize-for-something | EvanDaniel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c | Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day? | lisizapro8l | null | null | null | null |
wv1lca66vd | false | EKnSYyz71XadjA1gChNwxubpp6J3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "j5hmzf6cz6",
"label": "colorednoise",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " thanks, that works",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonas Vollmer | yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj | public | contract | 1,716,570,825,266 | manifold-leadership-approval-rating | JonasVollmer | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqZTipfMh8me9ID8kOWIN_e0cMRyQ68DN8Ikyk2p3E=s96-c | 👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index] | e0v27y2uewj | 0.46 | 3,544.228524 | YES | null |
4l483q2yhya | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ubn3lcrqhw",
"label": "EBurk",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " the implication of the change allmemeingeye is referring to, is that you get a lot more of the creation cost back if you close the market before the xkcd comic comes out. basically if you create the question, bring it to the \"correct probability\" by betting, and then let others trade on it, you will get a bit of fees but in expectation it will not cost anything to run the markets. However if you keep them at 50%, the original person 'taking that liquidity' will profit on the difference between the original probability (50%) and the \"correct probability\" which may be away from 50%. so basically you are incentivized to set the market price and then close before the result is announced; that minimizes the ultimate costs. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | hsVhlV2SOCRPAJwoXzzG | public | contract | 1,716,570,843,663 | what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-mo-ec37977c76d6 | Bayesian | What will be true of the xkcd on Monday, May 27th, 2024? | 3fek1gmcn4i | null | null | null | null | |
xwqrgvsh54j | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Holy shit, that was literally the one innovative thing the product had going for it, if that's confirmed fake then it's practically a scam lol",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | SrU0UnpFIAntHe2zbPLU | public | contract | 1,716,570,992,349 | rabbit-r1-scam-what-will-coffeezill | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Rabbit R1 scam - what will Coffeezilla uncover? | null | null | 11.497628 | YES | 42f67bb63a90 |
hlqsg0hyv8 | false | sNwe94NAjSbhu1H1nJdUFBynW712 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "f91vyy389z",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " It's closed now?",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I don't know if it's closed.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Carlos | 781x8buSmeM9CTkpk5dh | public | contract | 1,716,571,017,901 | will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a-47f9daaf241b | Carlosab83 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLyJZsUdw5JLIMzZvOs7_0V0KC5Od5MDjr_BJ5fFW3w=s96-c | Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF the May 23rd, 2024? | ya6d6jlsfgo | 0.824336 | 269.08703 | YES | null |
pqwp7oqmynk | false | Vf4NxC6JbqZ7TaxSIf3vsVszVHB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Hi all",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jackson Shtorm | UTNZe8e6YCqD3IlxJl1z | public | contract | 1,716,571,043,754 | will-the-next-speaker-of-the-house-7ca01fb74c92 | JacksonShtorm | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKR0pmThyqvmKAvdUr97GtZqZeXAFF17TKAtye2bA_-_rfkzw=s96-c | Will the next Speaker of the House be elected within 15 ballots? | null | null | null | null | null |
52oa8rriq8k | false | Vf4NxC6JbqZ7TaxSIf3vsVszVHB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I want to tell you about an excellent article ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://valhallavitality.com/blog/boosting-mens-health-the-synergistic-effects-of-tadalafil-and-testosteron",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://valhallavitality.com/blog/boosting-mens-health-the-synergistic-effects-of-tadalafil-and-testosteron",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " about the synergistic effects of tadalafil and testosterone on male health turned out to be a real discovery. It describes in detail how these two substances work together to not only improve erectile function, but also to increase muscle mass, boost energy levels, and improve overall health.I recommend it to anyone who wants to better understand how to take care of their health! ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jackson Shtorm | auzOLj2mRk8vblYzsjWR | public | contract | 1,716,571,103,807 | will-apple-mention-chatgpt-at-wwdc | JacksonShtorm | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKR0pmThyqvmKAvdUr97GtZqZeXAFF17TKAtye2bA_-_rfkzw=s96-c | Will Apple mention 'ChatGPT' at WWDC 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
5gntyqe3qgx | false | yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4l483q2yhya",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Thank you clarifying, could you explain this: Where does my payout from making and resolving the market show up in my Balance Log?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | EBurk | hsVhlV2SOCRPAJwoXzzG | public | contract | 1,716,571,184,940 | what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-mo-ec37977c76d6 | EBurk | What will be true of the xkcd on Monday, May 27th, 2024? | 3fek1gmcn4i | null | null | null | null | |
1su0g4q9uch | false | bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "it's over",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kaivu | QmBVZSXLotrmGOsJHfH6 | public | contract | 1,716,571,282,955 | will-i-take-a-gap-semyear-in-the-20 | Kaivu | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5it87VqcRKspUt_py8q3eQyhYn9N8evvLehdkzg=s96-c | Will I take a gap sem/year in the 2023-24 academic year? | null | 0.015533 | 890.665539 | NO | null |
jj823zfc9l | false | I2bVfkY49dQ54suiyzZ2SN15QZA3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Just to be clear, you're allowed to use streak forgiveness points, right?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kraalnaxx | sG3jHwh9bBu6lwibHwLZ | public | contract | 1,716,571,293,012 | will-i-get-to-a-100-day-streak-on-m | Kraalnaxx | Will I get to a 100 day streak on Manifold in May 2024? | null | 0.895247 | 165.351324 | YES | null | |
0djgtyzwalq7 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "A salad is basically a vegetable. Don't be sheeple. A soup has infinite possibilities. Reach for the Divine.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,571,360,867 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | Bayesian | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | null | null | 1,210.464878 | YES | 3ef25a41deb3 | |
rzfzhyd154 | false | nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "n5ohuvb6lmk",
"label": "patrik",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Okay, cheers. I have a perhaps nitpicky but not unthinkable follow-up in light of the Sam 'Not Consistently Candid' Altmann and Scarlett Johansson situation. What if legislation prohibits AIs from having specific voices from individuals who have not given away their rights? You have the same with image rights today. This means there will be a market where living individual human voices are still sought after, thus not redundant. How would you resolve this admittedly hypothetical case?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Gaz Downright | 28RJ23fKDFMr4Mo8YQ4f | public | contract | 1,716,571,420,164 | will-human-narration-for-audiobooks | GazDownright | Will human narration for audiobooks become mostly unnecessary before 2026? | rfa8n4fl5dk | null | null | null | null | |
74a7kwzqnll | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "5gntyqe3qgx",
"label": "EBurk",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I don't know, but it's possible that it's not showing up there at all; for example I know fees aren't setup to show in the balance log yet. It's a work in progress atm, from what I understand.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | hsVhlV2SOCRPAJwoXzzG | public | contract | 1,716,571,459,296 | what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-mo-ec37977c76d6 | Bayesian | What will be true of the xkcd on Monday, May 27th, 2024? | 3fek1gmcn4i | null | null | null | null | |
1d5xhyhwtzu | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "0djgtyzwalq7",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " powerful message 🫡",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,571,497,487 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | shankypanky | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | 0djgtyzwalq7 | null | 321.10921 | NO | cae724d28376 | |
r0ffjcp44do | false | U907XL5wZSQ0pD7pMXe2HaS0NR33 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "jj823zfc9l",
"label": "Kraalnaxx",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I think yes, though the last time I tried that the first time I had a streak going, it didn’t work (but I would contact Manifold this time if it didn’t work). ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I DO know about this, so my streak is still going strong today: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Joshua/did-you-know-theres-a-big-today-whe?r=SFdI",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/Joshua/did-you-know-theres-a-big-today-whe?r=SFdI",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Haven | sG3jHwh9bBu6lwibHwLZ | public | contract | 1,716,571,501,998 | will-i-get-to-a-100-day-streak-on-m | HWH | Will I get to a 100 day streak on Manifold in May 2024? | jj823zfc9l | null | null | null | null | |
u92vqt8gop | false | yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "74a7kwzqnll",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " That makes sense. Well, for right now, I suppose that I will run the market normally as long as I have the capital, and once I can see that information, make a decision if I need to change how these markets are setup",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | EBurk | hsVhlV2SOCRPAJwoXzzG | public | contract | 1,716,571,652,321 | what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-mo-ec37977c76d6 | EBurk | What will be true of the xkcd on Monday, May 27th, 2024? | 3fek1gmcn4i | null | null | null | null | |
tfrmf3198bi | false | I2bVfkY49dQ54suiyzZ2SN15QZA3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "r0ffjcp44do",
"label": "HWH",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Thanks for clarifying! I have a longer term streak market if you're interested ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Kraalnaxx/will-i-reach-an-unbroken-500-day-pr?r=S3JhYWxuYXh4",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/Kraalnaxx/will-i-reach-an-unbroken-500-day-pr?r=S3JhYWxuYXh4",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kraalnaxx | sG3jHwh9bBu6lwibHwLZ | public | contract | 1,716,571,652,466 | will-i-get-to-a-100-day-streak-on-m | Kraalnaxx | Will I get to a 100 day streak on Manifold in May 2024? | jj823zfc9l | 0.895247 | 165.351324 | YES | null | |
p8qlmfjgjqr | false | AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33",
"label": "NathanpmYoung",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " 6 months late but am also curious about this",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nat | fnB94L3lMghOhs5lwfve | public | contract | 1,716,571,774,695 | after-18-months-without-open-warfar | Nat | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c | After 18 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza? | 6tW9cZjrRKqeOdJV25u5 | null | null | null | null |
cwi32dk3qi8 | false | g26yWuQJtWfjh12tJE4RArEzLi33 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Does it count if the full log is only for the AI to see, and the outputs are limited to clearly defined “warnings” like the current iMessage protections for children?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Logan Turner | yvO8aFh9mPu3ERkbHUgO | public | contract | 1,716,571,874,331 | by-eoy-2026-will-iphones-have-an-ai | LoganTurner | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxb6lOFoLQos2HX7enoLuYEiJqPW11HpUxAX9AsB8w=s96-c | By EOY 2026, will iPhones have an AI that has access to and remembers everything you did on your phone? | null | 0.360955 | 75.381683 | NO | null |
j0t0f20dbg | false | ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Today ( 2024-05-24 ) perl 5.40.0 is still scheduled to be released on 2024-05-20 😂 ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://github.com/Perl/perl5/blob/3876454601fbacbb06b16270aadfa52609a8bca5/Porting/release_schedule.pod#L16",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://github.com/Perl/perl5/blob/3876454601fbacbb06b16270aadfa52609a8bca5/Porting/release_schedule.pod#L16",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " As far as I see it was not released yet (at least there is no tag containing substring \"5.40\" in git repo ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://github.com/Perl/perl5",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://github.com/Perl/perl5",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " )",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I want to point out 2 messages in the perl porters maillist:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The first message:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.nntp.perl.org/group/perl.perl5.porters/2024/05/msg268181.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.nntp.perl.org/group/perl.perl5.porters/2024/05/msg268181.html",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "From: Philippe Bruhat",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Date: May 21, 2024 15:48",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "...",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Graham and I intend to release Perl 5.40 next Friday (2024-05-24).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "...",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The second message:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.nntp.perl.org/group/perl.perl5.porters/2024/05/msg268194.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.nntp.perl.org/group/perl.perl5.porters/2024/05/msg268194.html",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "From: book",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Date: May 22, 2024 12:30",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "...",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ".. you can expect RC1 on Friday, and if all goes well,",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "the final build of 5.40 sometime next week.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "...",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | bessarabov | ywClndqYugtSpvKnxOZ1 | public | contract | 1,716,572,152,913 | in-what-month-of-year-2024-perl-540 | bessarabov | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa0vn1x1xAzRtUYlNYFvDv8apE9Dr8EZAyBq_q2-Q=s96-c | In what month of year 2024 perl 5.40.0 will be released | null | null | 12.237655 | YES | 1551fb8d6b37 |
hb22g36tgdo | false | 3P4jYmiRLYPZysvyXy7hmRxOYPz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Trump will extend his hand offering the shake, then pull away at the last second and say “sike!”",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "He cannot be trusted. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Connor Dolan | gffoEWwKUc5NIG4cYgZH | public | contract | 1,716,572,258,285 | will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at | ConnorDolan | Will Trump and Biden Shake Hands at the first debate in June? | null | null | null | null | null | |
gwayk88lclr | false | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "mj2pzyibxyb",
"label": "cash",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Just noticed an error in the above post. I assumed that at that time I was looking at the full week of April 28th-May 4th, but it appears that the date range (April-April) removes some of the data from early May. So 168 protests and 8 riots, I am guessing, refers to ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "just",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " April 28-30. If one extends the range into May, the demonstration number for the April 28th-May 4th week actually went ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "way higher",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", at 435 protests and 14 riots tagged as pro-Palestine/anti-Israel:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FZDT2z4wwMs.png?alt=media&token=f8638e87-59ef-45b9-9eea-595ef9e29cbe",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Data is also now out for the week of May 5-May 11 (as can be seen in the above picture), showing 180 protests and 4 riots. This means the 50+, 100+, and 150+ options should resolve YES. I'm going to opt to wait for another week of data to be published before resolving those options, however, so that I'm sure I'm resolving based on finalized data for that week.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | cshunter | Cx1ggKSAdyYmrqA1KNIJ | public | contract | 1,716,572,391,558 | how-many-us-propalestineantiisrael | cash | How many US pro-Palestine/anti-Israel demonstrations will there be in any week in May 2024? | mj2pzyibxyb | null | null | null | null | |
4m3w0711m67 | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hlqsg0hyv8",
"label": "Carlosab83",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Yeah it's currently closed, but I'd like to resolve it N/A so as not to punish the traders who bought no after pointing out that approval of the 19b-4 is not actually approval of the ETF itself, it's just the first step.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | 781x8buSmeM9CTkpk5dh | public | contract | 1,716,572,870,138 | will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a-47f9daaf241b | Joshua | Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF the May 23rd, 2024? | ya6d6jlsfgo | null | null | null | null | |
2py2kpetlde | false | kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "mceW6RagJMfIZFKlOEpis65g9Mb2",
"label": "Awex",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " hope I get 500 Mana today",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Grey Box | WnjjxxZ7N0ls3WJB1BXm | public | contract | 1,716,573,038,347 | ipl-match-winner-super-market-yes-f | GreyBox | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcgcLF6_hQzuAGLru0yBQSqgd02HTNIqX1dO_RW6M3v=s96-c | 🏏 IPL Match Winner Super Market. “Yes” for the first team to win, “No” for the second. 50 Mana bonus per game. | null | null | 6,407.547061 | YES | 9ea524821bdd |
zu7wp377so | false | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Only reason I can see this wouldn’t happen would be if Trump’s arm is in a ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_and_handshakes?wprov=sfti1#",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "sling.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-handshakes-2017-3?amp",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-handshakes-2017-3?amp",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_and_handshakes?wprov=sfti1#",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_and_handshakes?wprov=sfti1#",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ClubmasterTransparent | gffoEWwKUc5NIG4cYgZH | public | contract | 1,716,573,114,399 | will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at | ClubmasterTransparent | Will Trump and Biden Shake Hands at the first debate in June? | null | 0.499516 | 152.720299 | YES | null | |
s6tz9zal6id | false | Hl00u2lWwcgYwYV92yvK1uWTPav1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lmwstoa9ir",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " i think this is clear and well-reasoned. i want to add that many of these markets were written to mirror the spirit of the BTC ETF approval process. however, that process was inverted to the ETH ETF - the S-1s went first, then the 19b-4. the \"BTC ETF approved\" headlines came only after both parts were approved.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "i considered the possibility that S-1s weren't approved in time and understood how they were related, but i didn't place my best on that information. i didn't see anybody else on manifold mention the possibility before the SEC's announcement, either. traders should blame the SEC, not the manifold mod team. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "i think resolving n/a, while not ideal, is a \"best case\" outcome here. thanks for your efforts. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bob Snodgrass | 781x8buSmeM9CTkpk5dh | public | contract | 1,716,573,869,775 | will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a-47f9daaf241b | BobSnodgrass | Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF the May 23rd, 2024? | jlzc4gq6h9g | 0.824336 | 2,320.441784 | NO | null | |
jzr7k0tysmr | false | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Update: some of my concerns have been addressed, there is still ongoing discussion, and we were granted an additional $5k ad credit for the (really bad) bugs that we had to deal with and the >1month it took to get a genuine response. Imo this negates most of the harm, but it will still be up to others on the team to decide as well - not just me!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Genzy | YDYcJZqFyMcAvB0B8e6P | public | contract | 1,716,573,971,678 | will-we-regret-becoming-a-verified | Gen | Will we regret becoming a verified org on Twitter in 3 months if we subscribe now? | null | 0.331703 | 3,390.986096 | NO | null | |
krp6yi3b6ug | false | ldCLxO4AHHTftNiB9x4izsM64Em2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The poll hasn't closed yet, but it's looking unanimous after 24h, so I'm going to resolve the market now.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | retr0id | trG1B15sl4EkpJpxZ2fP | public | contract | 1,716,574,404,132 | will-the-rabbit-r1-suck | retr0id | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ6nAjEdqeNlohfS74yM5ocPFfIJB0TO-3ttc3BFqAH0Sk=s96-c | Will the Rabbit R1 Suck? | null | 0.979205 | 207.357754 | YES | null |
qn8xmxl3ip8 | false | zDEVlPkmUlUVkjVC79f9J0fpnR32 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "This other market looks more optimistic, on essentially same question? https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Goodgulf | qZpkm5ILHXGW4vTqEaa8 | public | contract | 1,716,574,811,174 | will-the-4th-starship-test-survive | Goodgulf | Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry? | null | null | 5,051.824099 | YES | 92cd3c194988 | |
t9j4b2sx1nl | false | yhMjQ7Ph9AgzMQHPSnWJ4EwFVu12 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This thread was going around on the Twitter today:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": "t1793930355617259811",
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "tiptapTweet"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Marginally relevant to this market, since it shows that someone is actively working on the NetHack task. (Their model was only getting 3000-5000 points, depending on the phase of the moon, which is way below the performance needed to actually ascend. But that may be a small model for testing/iteration purposes, and they may intend to scale up to something bigger later.)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | NLeseul | Vg5k7XIzutZJyJXiAYcz | public | contract | 1,716,574,967,829 | will-an-artificial-agent-ascend-in-b37b7340675d | NLeseul | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5NPcSyIQZFZcOY7wcwSutdgrXKzq-TcO3gnn6UvQ=s96-c | Will an artificial agent ascend in NetHack (version 3.6.6 or later) before the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
f3lnbtxxwta | false | GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3",
"label": "SemioticRivalry",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " This person \"Ben\" is commenting on the Internet, which was made by tech nerds.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nathan Wei | rvV9kDFlQ77H1hb5rBs1 | public | contract | 1,716,576,058,951 | will-narcissistic-orgying-tech-nerd | nathanwei | Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills? | null | null | null | null | null | |
df3ve2e7tus | false | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://archive.is/51Tpi",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://archive.is/51Tpi",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "OpenAI didn’t copy Scarlett Johansson’s voice for ChatGPT, records show",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "A different actress was hired to provide the voice for ChatGPT’s “Sky,” according to documents and recordings shared with the Washington Post.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jackson polack | HDZ137x2KzqiOYXGPRPs | public | contract | 1,716,576,096,445 | will-proof-emerge-that-openais-sky | jacksonpolack | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | Will proof emerge that OpenAI's "Sky" voice was trained on Scarlett Johansson's voice? | null | 0.05 | 957.996778 | NO | null |
u20di6sooq | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "btw - I initially had a point on this one (a friend suggested I remove it because it felt redundant) that, while well-received and therefore broadly adopted, the outcome is not guaranteed - you're designing and implementing a plan that has a likelihood of succeeding but you can't be certain.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "not sure if that changes anyone's perspective or bet but I thought I'd point it out.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,576,173,935 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | shankypanky | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | null | null | 321.10921 | NO | cae724d28376 | |
p97j5cl7nwg | false | 0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hb22g36tgdo",
"label": "ConnorDolan",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I think he'll say rationalussy",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | colorednoise | gffoEWwKUc5NIG4cYgZH | public | contract | 1,716,576,441,602 | will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at | colorednoise | Will Trump and Biden Shake Hands at the first debate in June? | hb22g36tgdo | 0.5 | 1.696022 | NO | null | |
8if8h57lb0k | false | M7EdfE9HkWUwiKA8k71JoFOEK0O2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "fancy seeing you here :o",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lexer | MNt9vMyxekLKTSrWISH7 | public | contract | 1,716,577,208,668 | how-will-miri-allocate-funding-betw-bf64373c29bf | Lexer | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQC4RAMX-tRlYW2iezY6IODewj13oOqJubj3-yYSiq=s96-c | How will MIRI allocate funding between its program areas in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
cjs2g2z26q5 | false | M7EdfE9HkWUwiKA8k71JoFOEK0O2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Seconding Lorxus here. This all comes down to how you define AGI -- were I in charge I'd already have resolved \"yes\".",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lexer | s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk | public | contract | 1,716,577,481,994 | will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g | Lexer | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQC4RAMX-tRlYW2iezY6IODewj13oOqJubj3-yYSiq=s96-c | Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025? | null | null | null | null | null |
v3azlxq9z | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "good alpha if any Smith voters wanna switch to Bonaparte",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pat Scott🩴 | lXLKqMKVqxjaL9KEPrX2 | public | contract | 1,716,577,546,530 | -who-is-manifolds-goat-sweet-16-pla | Stralor | 🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Sweet 16) | null | null | 283.883206 | NO | c9dc83557388 | |
iifrci5pno | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "0djgtyzwalq7",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " A nice cobb salad is pretty close to divine too.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F3G27ohwN0x.png?alt=media&token=6b406149-dfd8-4d61-9af4-b2f013e19829",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,577,649,457 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | 0djgtyzwalq7 | null | 89.4291 | NO | 9daf9dd2653b |
0m3f00itpn7i | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.dexerto.com/tech/ios-18-update-poised-to-add-7-new-emojis-to-your-iphone-ipad-2736084/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.dexerto.com/tech/ios-18-update-poised-to-add-7-new-emojis-to-your-iphone-ipad-2736084/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | 9wcsaj5AOfZQxLvEdaeC | public | contract | 1,716,577,680,750 | which-of-the-following-emoji-ideas | strutheo | 🔣Which of the following emoji ideas will be officially in Unicode and available for use by EOY 2026? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | 68.801513 | YES | 90b1eee41d56 | |
ghmlc9k39xq | false | uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm open to most comments, but: if the entire substance of your comment is that I'm fat, or look like a pedo, or similar, your comment will be hidden and reported.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(reposting in the comments so it's hopefully more visible)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Shelvacu | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,716,577,805,430 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Shelvacu | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | null | null | null | null | null | |
zec75ez1ep9 | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": "",
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://media4.giphy.com/media/8vIFoKU8s4m4CBqCao/giphy.gif?cid=5ff1f1cakp2mal24zmds38op7js75xo6e2hef832wj1oqj8j&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,716,577,914,578 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Joshua | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | null | null | null | null | null | |
a4beb1rdv7h | false | aY5Y69raPSVhT9URnCjk6hBhPb83 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "sin47UmZdFQp0FgUR7kJ6EsCWr12",
"label": "FlipPidot",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " can we get a resolution here?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Market Maker | D4j3F0VMWhhGPDdttQfX | public | contract | 1,716,577,957,069 | who-will-win-the-special-election-i | ManifoldMarketmaker | Who will win the special election in CA-20? | null | null | 126.150305 | YES | aa2c45bc3808 | |
gnqh1zl8t4 | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "qn8xmxl3ip8",
"label": "JuhoPennanen",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Is it? Isn't there some possibility that it gets past maximum re-entry heating with all systems functioning but with some damage that results in a RUD before re-entry is completed? Or is this possibility never going to be revealed because it will be in communication blackout due to plasma?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Christopher Randles | qZpkm5ILHXGW4vTqEaa8 | public | contract | 1,716,578,012,613 | will-the-4th-starship-test-survive | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry? | qn8xmxl3ip8 | null | 63.013912 | YES | 92cd3c194988 |
d13kv97f2z5 | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "joriwflu4n",
"label": "matbogus",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Nah, that one's been possible for a while. It needs to get the shape in other contexts too.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Isaac King | HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC | public | contract | 1,716,578,145,203 | will-any-image-model-be-able-to-dra | IsaacKing | Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025? | joriwflu4n | null | null | null | null | |
9rf5w7uo3i | false | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Should be rolling at 10PM EST assuming I don't fall asleep like last week or forget.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Haws | iizzrO02mEnq6OQgIT52 | public | contract | 1,716,578,249,871 | friday-dice-roll-what-number-will-t-f1dc42b31572 | Haws | Friday Dice roll - What number will they land on? | null | null | 91.280127 | YES | 82693c261d73 | |
ad7xfzpjqe9 | false | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "tc68g634ya",
"label": "ChrisMillsc5f7",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I set the close date stupidly late anticipating that tensions might continue, so it's still technically possible for a response to occur before May 31 and cause this to resolve YES. Almost certainly won't happen, of course,",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Savior of Plant | qqrgexv8IZeslUtxUm7s | public | contract | 1,716,578,393,276 | what-will-happen-during-or-as-a-res | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | What will happen during or as a result of the Iranian drone attack on Israel? [ADD ANSWERS] | tc68g634ya | null | 5,015.292531 | YES | 29b86e239c3a |
c56y16ty2p | false | 8xQnIB88joaJhPlVukko1KWmAhA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/icreatelife/status/1793781850923823144",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/icreatelife/status/1793781850923823144",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": false,
"id": "e11fd640-805b-4a80-afb4-5b5e9c88fba2",
"image": null,
"inputKey": "comment x07rd3JfAdK5faELuDnacomment, repost ",
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": "x.com",
"tweetId": null,
"url": "https://x.com/icreatelife/status/1793781850923823144"
},
"content": null,
"type": "linkPreview"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jaeson Booker | x07rd3JfAdK5faELuDna | public | contract | 1,716,578,496,964 | will-google-pause-or-remove-ai-over | JaesonBooker | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7Rs0_O0TIrqz7XA7vEBK-PqCatVcTZJI0ImEYs=s96-c | Will Google pause or remove AI Overviews by the end of May? | null | 0.305874 | 24.37784 | YES | null |
0vkjf99brm5 | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm not gonna make it do more complex geometry like figuring out what shape has internal angles of 108 degrees, but if it's a straightforward communication that it must have 5 sides, that'll count.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Isaac King | HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC | public | contract | 1,716,578,502,903 | will-any-image-model-be-able-to-dra | IsaacKing | Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025? | 0fef6l7exvtl | null | null | null | null | |
0hjen7sgjsn | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "m7bnbsv7zx8",
"label": "ForTruth",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " If a reasonable person would say \"yup that's a pentagon\", it counts. e.g. this is a pentagon, despite being 3-dimensional:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FdNeclVOUQG.png?alt=media&token=16912d8f-17c4-4a89-a235-537f5973c34e",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Isaac King | HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC | public | contract | 1,716,578,718,795 | will-any-image-model-be-able-to-dra | IsaacKing | Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025? | ha3idrvm3o | null | null | null | null | |
tdwxe3qe9a | false | M7EdfE9HkWUwiKA8k71JoFOEK0O2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "igy7KTJuDhRP81eENSPN",
"label": "PeteHensen",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " don't rush the man. Genious takes time",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lexer | yhQArOvtKZofO8TqfT0c | public | contract | 1,716,578,829,006 | whats-my-iq | Lexer | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQC4RAMX-tRlYW2iezY6IODewj13oOqJubj3-yYSiq=s96-c | What's my IQ? | igy7KTJuDhRP81eENSPN | null | null | null | null |
ji7g39tirvg | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "384mfp2owtk",
"label": "chrisjbillington",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Ah, thanks for noticing that. I think when I was first asked I was thinking of SVGs as more similar to code, and then when I was asked again recently I was thinking of them as more akin to a weird image format. I think the \"code\" interpretation is better, since IIUC in an SVG you can specify 5 points and say \"draw lines between these\", which is very similar to what ChatGPT would do to render it with Python. It doesn't have to really \"see\" the visual layout like it would for a PNG. So I think I'll stick with SVGs not being allowed. Sorry for the inconsistency, I'm updating the description.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Isaac King | HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC | public | contract | 1,716,578,916,156 | will-any-image-model-be-able-to-dra | IsaacKing | Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025? | kp8irat3ljb | null | null | null | null | |
ekvyig49d5b | false | uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Next time, I'll probably just use Grindr.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FZ_EpQWThe0.jpg?alt=media&token=1d7f6058-1aec-4e0d-adfa-fbd38cb81441",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(although I still might, but definitely not \"just\")",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Shelvacu | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,716,579,101,922 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Shelvacu | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ucitdpmuwoa | false | PDt0ZBUmBCfpnynOmre77KYqVim2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "oy3fuapbs3",
"label": "Noit",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I’ll wait for the final list; I suppose he could always change his mind.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lisa Marsh | M13x60ilxiOqk885AIo1 | public | contract | 1,716,579,171,996 | what-will-be-about-the-next-uk-gene | lisamarsh | What will be true about the next UK general election? | oy3fuapbs3 | null | 3,614.747287 | NO | 2cbd3508fd5c | |
syztd1liuv | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "11 done 3 planned",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/TurkeyBeaver/status/1793974512662266360",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/TurkeyBeaver/status/1793974512662266360",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Christopher Randles | DsZQy2YXZILFW6bbAWQQ | public | contract | 1,716,579,236,165 | how-many-spacex-launches-will-occur-7466ab05ac98 | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | 🚀 How Many SPACEX Launches Will Occur During May 2024? | null | null | 601.073459 | NO | 0cb9f782e73d |
bh84emselkh | false | XmAUlR95VBW12Fee6lES6eY9CRC3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "qcayi4ihy7",
"label": "CertaintyOfVictory",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " And now I'm back in.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Certainty of Victory | uiJplqouWLlzcAcMBOnn | public | contract | 1,716,579,351,735 | will-eliezer-and-gretta-still-be-re | CertaintyOfVictory | Will Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026? | qcayi4ihy7 | 0.440247 | 206.828277 | YES | null | |
cb8u1xea4d | false | M7EdfE9HkWUwiKA8k71JoFOEK0O2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "he is died",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lexer | c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX | public | contract | 1,716,579,552,234 | who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma | Lexer | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQC4RAMX-tRlYW2iezY6IODewj13oOqJubj3-yYSiq=s96-c | 🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | 307.360154 | YES | 8743cdb50b02 |
ozxpvgbj59p | false | Nk2ybX3NLfYfJunqY20MMFIInbR2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "roll roons baby",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jarizu | PcVx7Rp6078Qzvd05m2j | public | contract | 1,716,579,612,639 | will-i-graduate-from-uchicago-in-20 | Jarizu | Will I graduate from UChicago in 2027? | null | 0.525261 | 280.346008 | YES | null | |
an3sx73h5i9 | false | M7EdfE9HkWUwiKA8k71JoFOEK0O2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "7g083fypfhw",
"label": "StarkLN",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Budgets can't be vetoed.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Edit: Not true of the USA, disregard",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lexer | c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX | public | contract | 1,716,579,630,429 | who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma | Lexer | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQC4RAMX-tRlYW2iezY6IODewj13oOqJubj3-yYSiq=s96-c | 🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES] | 7g083fypfhw | null | 307.360154 | YES | 8743cdb50b02 |
30lowfaiw07 | false | oq8O6NlqklaCa9WQfWDdIHgA8Ce2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Are we ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/J5miiEvm72mPCr8uk/announcing-ea-brazil-summit",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "counting EA summits",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " in the resolution criteria?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Agus | 4hH1o5WJXsuvLzHFoB2D | public | contract | 1,716,579,636,889 | which-cities-in-latin-america-and-c | agucova | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu-w7PQ9sunB62AqBurBomUefakPsjN3yBMv4zMuSW8=s96-c | Which cities in Latin America and Caribbean will host EAG/EAGx conferences by Dec 31st, 2024? | null | null | 2,632.986489 | YES | 4e0c7f92265c |
9d21u72gmo7 | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://variety.com/2024/film/news/apprentice-donald-trump-team-cease-and-desist-letter-sebastian-stan-jeremy-strong-1236015819/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://variety.com/2024/film/news/apprentice-donald-trump-team-cease-and-desist-letter-sebastian-stan-jeremy-strong-1236015819/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "As ‘The Apprentice’ Seeks Cannes Sale, Trump Team Sends Cease and Desist Letter to Block Film’s Release (EXCLUSIVE)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | 6b6lCGb4IrIiPEfUms2u | public | contract | 1,716,579,641,356 | will-donald-trump-sue-over-biopic-a | Ziddletwix | Will Donald Trump Sue over biopic at Cannes? 🎥 | null | 0.56 | 85.105547 | YES | null | |
3b6c3a72xe6 | false | hqOOjUTKcZSIxV9xoFiJrPgLwf32 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ekj7j1d5ku4",
"label": "BobSnodgrass",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " thank you. It has been changed to 2024. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lee Woods | yBMw7cPmCg99zCehzh1P | public | contract | 1,716,579,881,091 | will-lewis-hamilton-finish-on-the-p-6474446abec8 | LeeWoods | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIJ2D9jnq95ZstW0tW1YTMtoJ-heKtQ_G_R0RQwetoJQbot=s96-c | Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix? | ekj7j1d5ku4 | null | null | null | null |
guplymkq9p | false | M7EdfE9HkWUwiKA8k71JoFOEK0O2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Trump's veto is the reason the PATRIOT Act is no more, a bill I'd assume the modal Manifolder heavily dislikes",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lexer | c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX | public | contract | 1,716,579,962,584 | who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma | Lexer | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQC4RAMX-tRlYW2iezY6IODewj13oOqJubj3-yYSiq=s96-c | 🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | 561.397951 | YES | be878110af1e |
5ajz2ce9lzg | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " was this related to the new album",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | oNxlzwkUU6aZH61SJrJb | public | contract | 1,716,580,116,019 | will-taylor-swift-write-a-song-abou | strutheo | Will Taylor Swift write a song about NFL locker rooms? | null | null | null | null | null | |
5kvwcgixkkh | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "5ajz2ce9lzg",
"label": "strutheo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " My assumption is that it's just \"anytime before market closes\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | oNxlzwkUU6aZH61SJrJb | public | contract | 1,716,580,193,823 | will-taylor-swift-write-a-song-abou | Joshua | Will Taylor Swift write a song about NFL locker rooms? | 5ajz2ce9lzg | 0.046314 | 0 | NO | null | |
dtfrui791w | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I love this Wikipedia article. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Supreme Court Justice nominee Neil Gorsuch, at his April 7, 2017, nomination ceremony: Gorsuch was reportedly \"almost jerked... off his feet\" by Trump,[5] who \"yank[ed] the judge towards him as if he were a pet dog on a leash\".",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "But it also has reason to bet no!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Commentators have claimed that Trump has germophobic views relating to handshaking;[9] Trump has at times deemed handshaking to be \"barbaric, disgusting and 'very, very terrible'\".",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | gffoEWwKUc5NIG4cYgZH | public | contract | 1,716,580,330,394 | will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at | Joshua | Will Trump and Biden Shake Hands at the first debate in June? | zu7wp377so | 0.5 | 740.858468 | YES | null | |
o97x70pnrrq | false | M7EdfE9HkWUwiKA8k71JoFOEK0O2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The nature of LLMs as next-token predictors might make this intractable IMO.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lexer | mqIkDr66P84o5wxxKuD9 | public | contract | 1,716,580,366,173 | will-llm-hallucinations-be-a-fixed | Lexer | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQC4RAMX-tRlYW2iezY6IODewj13oOqJubj3-yYSiq=s96-c | Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2025? | null | null | null | null | null |
krdf2g6705d | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Trump's win-lose, zero-sum handshakes offer a visual presentation of isolationism that produces a jarring effect; they are a shock to long-established and near-universally shared norms of diplomatic conduct as well as policies that ostensibly maintain a liberal, multilateral world order made up of plural but largely cooperative governance mechanisms. The rest of the world can refuse to play Trump's game here, or play the game by enduring the handshakes while otherwise sustaining multilateral order themselves and making deals without Trump as was case in 2017 when Trump's administration opted out of climate change and trade deals.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Someone should make a market about who will win the handshake.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | gffoEWwKUc5NIG4cYgZH | public | contract | 1,716,580,391,613 | will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at | Joshua | Will Trump and Biden Shake Hands at the first debate in June? | zu7wp377so | 0.5 | 740.858468 | YES | null | |
84bae9kwgk9 | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Just took this. Got 38/50, which it claims corresponds to an IQ of 133. That's pretty consistent with the other online test at least!",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(I clearly am supposed to be answering these faster. Out of the 38 questions I answered I got them all right, but I didn't have enough time to do the last 12.)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Isaac King | yhQArOvtKZofO8TqfT0c | public | contract | 1,716,580,442,430 | whats-my-iq | IsaacKing | What's my IQ? | K4YvBiuOmKP2AxSwvFHa | 0.575865 | 213.497487 | NO | null | |
gptr6ipt1s | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "🤝",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | gffoEWwKUc5NIG4cYgZH | public | contract | 1,716,580,519,767 | will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at | Joshua | Will Trump and Biden Shake Hands at the first debate in June? | null | null | null | null | null | |
liwqs9atyzc | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X8yrluig6Gun3yYRn9DV",
"label": "ICRainbow",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Yeah, that was what spawned this bet out of a discussion with ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2",
"label": "MatthewBarnett",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ". I expect this task is AGI-complete, so I'll happily bet that it won't happen before 2035 because money will have no value if it does.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Isaac King | G0GmOyaD1Qx3LoXfP9N7 | public | contract | 1,716,580,948,173 | before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai | IsaacKing | Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft? | 0Hq4kVsVoT3npL1xrJVX | 0.808137 | 2,623.126134 | NO | null | |
m1ko9c80ux | false | jZsECgI1Y5fuDY9alZvz7CMcxSg2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "They song seem to be offering any prizes now? Does it resolve yes if they get it solved afree offering a big prize? What if they loosen the specs?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Roberto Gomez | qgApztyMeSWHnpQrTyKJ | public | contract | 1,716,580,971,719 | will-the-neuralink-compression-chal | RobertoGomez | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzsGkARi5n93ihu6fO41PTFHtZh-XCjvWL5b0ki=s96-c | Will the Neuralink Compression Challenge Be Completed by the End of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
qoiinh5c1g | false | jZsECgI1Y5fuDY9alZvz7CMcxSg2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "m1ko9c80ux",
"label": "RobertoGomez",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " also,.what if multiple solutions fit the requirements? The description says 'single'",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Roberto Gomez | qgApztyMeSWHnpQrTyKJ | public | contract | 1,716,581,027,860 | will-the-neuralink-compression-chal | RobertoGomez | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzsGkARi5n93ihu6fO41PTFHtZh-XCjvWL5b0ki=s96-c | Will the Neuralink Compression Challenge Be Completed by the End of 2024? | m1ko9c80ux | null | null | null | null |
w0we6rjbc | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Anyone interested in making a duplicate of this market with the same intention but resolving based on your judgement rather than mine? I think 80% is massively overvalued and I'd like to bet NO, but don't want to do so in such a subjective market that I'm the decider of.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Isaac King | G0GmOyaD1Qx3LoXfP9N7 | public | contract | 1,716,581,130,232 | before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai | IsaacKing | Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft? | null | 0.808137 | 2,623.126134 | NO | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.