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} | Mana | mY8eR7W0O3iALtUT66JN | public | contract | 1,719,849,880,568 | how-will-the-supreme-court-decide-t | Mana | How will the Supreme Court split in the Trump immunity case? | null | null | 111.174986 | NO | 77b4bccd3ca5 | |
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"text": "\"Whenever the President and Vice President discuss their official responsibilities, they engage in official conduct. Presiding over the January 6 certification proceeding at which Members of Congress count the electoral votes is a constitutional and statutory duty of the Vice President. Art. II, §1, cl. 3; Amdt. 12; 3 U. S. C. §15. The indictment’s allegations that Trump attempted to pressure the Vice President to take particular acts in connection with his role at the certification proceeding thus involve official conduct, and Trump is at least presumptively immune from prosecution for such conduct. ",
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"text": "The question then becomes whether that presumption of immunity is rebutted under the circumstances. It is the Government’s burden to rebut the presumption of immunity. The Court therefore remands to the District Court to assess in the first instance whether a prosecution involving Trump’s alleged attempts to influence the Vice President’s oversight of the certification proceeding would pose any dangers of intrusion on the authority and functions of the Executive Branch. Pp. 21–24.\"",
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"text": "Communicating with his Vice President and with Congress is part of his official duties as president. The communication alone is not the issue. What he said might be.",
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"text": "\"the indictment alleges that Trump and his co-conspirators attempted to convince certain state officials that election fraud had tainted the popular vote count in their States, and thus electoral votes for Trump’s opponent needed to be changed to electoral votes for Trump. After Trump failed to convince those officials to alter their state processes, he and his coconspirators allegedly developed and effectuated a plan to submit fraudulent slates of Presidential electors to obstruct the certification proceeding. On Trump’s view, the alleged conduct qualifies as official because it was undertaken to ensure the integrity and proper administration of the federal election.",
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"text": " As the Government sees it, however, Trump can point to no plausible source of authority enabling the President to take such actions. ",
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"text": "Determining whose characterization may be correct, and with respect to which conduct, requires a fact-specific analysis of the indictment’s extensive and interrelated allegations. The Court accordingly remands to the District Court to determine in the first instance whether Trump’s conduct in this area qualifies as official or unofficial. Pp. 24–28.\"",
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},
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},
{
"attrs": null,
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{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "The certification of a Presidential election is clearly outside of a President's official responsibilities. Sending a mob from a political rally to Congress to \"influence\" the counting of ",
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}
],
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},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
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"text": "electoral collage votes is clearly not covered by any claims of immunity being made in this ruling. Hunting for missing votes to guarantee his win in GA is clearly not covered either.",
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}
],
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},
{
"attrs": null,
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{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
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"text": "He's not safe bro. He's cooked. Medium rare, clearly not edible and emitting a questionable odor, but he's sizzling.",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | becauseyoudo | mY8eR7W0O3iALtUT66JN | public | contract | 1,719,849,885,531 | how-will-the-supreme-court-decide-t | becauseyoudo | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbecauseyoudo%2F0GXbVCpNNX.bmp?alt=media&token=d5558412-2de1-47d7-ad36-a44a43748531 | How will the Supreme Court split in the Trump immunity case? | rn7fe979vvb | null | 70.318172 | YES | b2532c8daa55 |
k47kgnrb5in | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
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{
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"content": [
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{
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"text": " FWIW, they posted a video for 2024: ",
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{
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{
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"text": ". BUT, skimming through it, it's clear that the beginning is edited/chopped up, so I'm not sure this would actually include the land acknowledgment if there was one. ",
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],
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{
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{
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{
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"text": "FWIW, since I was there for non-medicine stuff, I know the main university ceremony included one, but the other separate school-specific ceremony I saw didn't have one, so I'm guessing that might have been the same for medicine. But unless someone was there, I'm not sure it's possible to confirm from what video whether it included one. so it's possible this is N/A? up to you",
"type": "text"
}
],
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}
],
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} | Ziddletwix | Gv6pT5Zsl8Fnpbs8skhQ | public | contract | 1,719,849,918,706 | stanford-medical-school-graduation | Ziddletwix | Stanford Medical School Graduation Ceremony includes Land acknowledgement, 2024 | null | 0.706274 | 0 | YES | null | |
wwlt1zzbpbi | false | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | {
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{
"attrs": null,
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{
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"text": "Thank you. It's too bad how hard it is to find this kind of thing out. I just saw the economist article about how the list is biased politically.",
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],
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} | Ernie | Ce5tfwuPZuEhBBbTKkHS | public | contract | 1,719,849,934,177 | will-lewiss-book-on-sbf-sell-more-c | Ernie | Will Lewis's book on SBF sell more copies than Isaacson's book on Elon Musk by Mid 2024 | k5y4zrntiy | null | null | null | null | |
vfofserbre | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
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"text": " looks like this resolves NO? (with close date a month later than intended, IIUC)",
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}
],
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}
],
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} | Ziddletwix | mmlwkjr7wn | public | contract | 1,719,849,961,539 | will-trump-announce-his-vp-pick-on-bg02zd1588 | Ziddletwix | Will Trump announce his VP pick on Thursday or Friday this week, if not during the debate? | null | 0.01 | 56.593053 | NO | null | |
0dpx5o07pb7b | false | nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972 | {
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{
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"text": " Resolves NO.",
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],
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],
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} | SEE | 3F3Uq8e1Qk2h5N7sFUBM | public | contract | 1,719,849,972,541 | will-the-federal-reserve-cut-intere-0f5d264e84ea | SEE | Will the federal reserve cut interest rates before the end of Q2 2024? | null | 0.013049 | 2,038.937201 | NO | null | |
kiwd0qqlvin | false | 9mfhLBysB2Skn0Pu11U95dCVrdL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "You mean revoking passports entirely?? At first I assumed this was about forms of ID change, that seems more plausible. Nobody's gunning for it, and it would be really hard to implement. I can see some kind of wishy-washy 'fraud prevention' maybe, but outright revoking? To be revoked would mean that there's some kind of national transgender registry, they'd have to go through birth certificate records and cross check changes going back years and years. There are probably way more corrected clerical errors and name changes as there are trans people. AFAIK nobody's keeping records of gender change specifically. (the texas attorney general tried this with drivers licenses, it didn't work) ",
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},
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}
],
"text": "https://www.texastribune.org/2022/12/14/ken-paxton-transgender-texas-data/",
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}
],
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{
"attrs": null,
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{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "If someone has evidence to the contrary, I'd really like to know 😅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Harrison Dorn | 4eqtxxfqbz | public | contract | 1,719,849,992,973 | will-transgender-us-passports-with | HarrisonDorn | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLjhZvCf5cfyJEZoacc9XcOrfaxkk_a4fYBf-f7_AEqsyFZ5f4f_w=s96-c | Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025? | null | 0.347512 | 162.08458 | NO | null |
993muw7bzgh | false | nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972 | {
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{
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"text": " Resolves NO.",
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} | SEE | lHgHJDWBnIMxb0goWR8I | public | contract | 1,719,850,011,158 | will-there-be-an-ariane-6-launch-at | SEE | Will there be an Ariane 6 launch attempt (excluding scrubs) before 2024-07-01? | null | 0.020166 | 3,088.072108 | NO | null | |
8g81h5xm3qb | false | 4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
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"text": "But they were invented by the left-wing members of those societies",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Snarflak | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,719,850,016,459 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | Snarflak | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | vdwgywjuw8 | null | 669.025556 | NO | 5f6db2f28df6 | |
9b2938f7cjq | false | nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "YeylLIvQRjd9piYnfIY7yB9AX6i2",
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},
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},
{
"attrs": null,
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"marks": null,
"text": " Fairly sure this resolves NO.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | SEE | K6mXkTSzFSacfzRS4gaP | public | contract | 1,719,850,055,286 | will-an-open-source-llm-be-used-by | SEE | Will an Open Source LLM be used by a terrorist to kill ≥100 people before the end june 2024? | null | 0.01 | 1,026.453123 | NO | null | |
mgsknhtivxo | false | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Clarification: it needs to be officially declared as Cat 5, I won’t infer based on wind speed models or anything else.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Gabrielle | xcdn8kiz7y | public | contract | 1,719,850,058,583 | will-hurricane-beryl-reach-category | Gabrielle | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | Will Hurricane Beryl reach category 5? | null | null | null | null | null |
pqpauvwznsq | false | nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "@OmarB Resolves NO.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | SEE | 2AwNHs3zKXxdkF9BNhAZ | public | contract | 1,719,850,085,167 | will-djt-trump-media-tech-group-cor | SEE | Will DJT (Trump Media & Tech Group Corp stock) get below $1 per share by the end of June 2024? | null | 0.01813 | 3,081.955408 | NO | null | |
b28r6sk8crf | false | 4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I read this as leftists being the ones who go outside and live in reality while right-wingers spend all their time watching TV or in online echo chambers.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Snarflak | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,719,850,130,754 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | Snarflak | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | abd887m6mah | null | 669.025556 | NO | 5f6db2f28df6 | |
q4j2ses43uo | false | cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
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"text": "I think there should be huge step changes in valuations and overall unprecedented volatility across the board. I would not expect a general breakdown in law and order.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | lukres | fbn3nw841 | public | contract | 1,719,850,135,025 | are-you-optimistic-about-how-things | lukres | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2 | Are you optimistic about how things will be post-AGI? | 44dzdnfzy0a | null | null | null | null |
xxhud2s73s | false | 4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "You think Zuckerberg is right-wing?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Snarflak | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,719,850,149,583 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | Snarflak | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | n8u8h3oy8kh | null | 669.025556 | NO | 5f6db2f28df6 | |
fnpa4x1lv4m | false | nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "DV9hfX389EdUB5I3MpWjtksnv3t2",
"label": "Plotchy",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
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"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Fairly sure this resolves NO.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | SEE | duGLtSav2c2co2uMMfYo | public | contract | 1,719,850,157,908 | will-apple-replace-the-goggles-emoj | SEE | Will Apple replace the goggles emoji 🥽 (U+1F97D) with a graphic of the Apple Vision Pro by end of Q2 2024? | null | 0.063074 | 106.402024 | NO | null |
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