id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2
classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2
values | commentType stringclasses 1
value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2
values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n04ajk7dk3b | false | 4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1",
"label": "duck_master",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mentio... | Snarflak | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,720,034,895,856 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | Snarflak | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | te71bk9r8z | null | 669.025556 | NO | 5f6db2f28df6 | |
g607dvwdr7 | false | Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "We're at four cases",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JGY | sACktujffn6oeNjICMr5 | public | contract | 1,720,034,918,668 | what-will-be-the-total-number-of-h5 | jgyou | What will be the total number of H5N1 human cases reported by the CDC in the US at the end of 2024? [0-200] | null | null | 163.908825 | YES | 9ff5d5a60bfe | |
vhuopxfq59k | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "and I probably should have made this market a binary for the first time out. oops!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragra... | Pat Scott🩴 | 2l0jx5q7hr | public | contract | 1,720,034,921,775 | inversion-resolutions-what-would-be | Stralor | [Inversing Resolutions] What would be true in a world where Donald Trump wins the election? | q93qxit422p | null | null | null | null | |
bu9qfacbxne | false | W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "That was the only reason to add answers! I paid my Mana at the time to earn!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | Frederick Norris | vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN | public | contract | 1,720,034,945,982 | who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445 | FrederickNorris | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1nG8JLEomMagK6stKR9jLtLP2h-QTJkMxC9Qz-tJy8A=s96-c | Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP) | 81sijlqe1hl | null | 54,376.325841 | YES | 6e9e21e734e6 |
ja8zvg4yk2 | false | 4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53",
"label": "BrunoParga",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention... | Snarflak | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,720,034,946,577 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | Snarflak | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | te71bk9r8z | null | 669.025556 | NO | 5f6db2f28df6 | |
vd4b1di6c1e | false | 12ztXVGfibSZaCDnGndN40PKUIO2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "That’s anti-capitalist. Wait till you hear what they wanted to replace capitalism with (starts with “dictatorship of the …”)",
"type": "text"... | Paul | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,720,034,966,848 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | Paul | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GivsAmgOWywNYNzHSwlvq95nQAGKHiFjTR4-W0NRg=s96-c | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | te71bk9r8z | null | 463.273249 | YES | tdtwz8lynd |
f088dq1uqvr | false | Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "At five cases. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JGY | HnDVpogGDsnTzqJrV9Fn | public | contract | 1,720,034,974,353 | will-there-be-a-largescale-bird-flu | jgyou | Will there be a large-scale bird flu outbreak in the US in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
enskqq5r27t | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You systematically vote \"right-wing\" on this market for things that are clearly left-wing.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type"... | Bruno | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,720,035,144,481 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | te71bk9r8z | null | 3.055573 | NO | xu4agxmfx4 |
bk24cg6x90s | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ah, yes, capitalism is the left and communism is the right.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type"... | Bruno | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,720,035,211,980 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | mmi0ihzqwh | null | 3.055573 | NO | xu4agxmfx4 |
jumd1oyzbwb | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I feel ya. They also duplicated my other 3 nomination markets and made the dupes the official advertised ones. I'm feeling the sting now!",
"... | Pat Scott🩴 | vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN | public | contract | 1,720,035,342,700 | who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445 | Stralor | Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP) | 81sijlqe1hl | null | 56,843.0641 | YES | 13383c847440 | |
dr1sior02e8 | false | 4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53",
"label": "BrunoParga",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention... | Snarflak | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,720,035,399,251 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | Snarflak | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | te71bk9r8z | null | 669.025556 | NO | 5f6db2f28df6 | |
1r5qr4lndva | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Thank you for making my case better than I ever could.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "do... | Bruno | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,720,035,562,319 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | te71bk9r8z | null | 3.055573 | NO | xu4agxmfx4 |
eyk6hxo7peb | false | 4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Wait, these all resolve to N/A if he doesn't get in, right? It doesn't explicitly say that.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type"... | Snarflak | zUbUc1Mklmpdz6NNtS43 | public | contract | 1,720,035,576,048 | what-will-trump-do-in-his-second-te | Snarflak | What will Trump do in his second term? (if he wins) | null | null | 291.888367 | YES | qsd51mq6vi | |
e7pbehsk13f | false | 0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(if he wins)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Gordan Knott | zUbUc1Mklmpdz6NNtS43 | public | contract | 1,720,035,600,296 | what-will-trump-do-in-his-second-te | GordanKnott | What will Trump do in his second term? (if he wins) | eyk6hxo7peb | null | null | null | null | |
kavli3fwiaf | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "m... | Bruno | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,720,035,664,883 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | jeqgmlz4tln | null | 3.055573 | NO | xu4agxmfx4 |
p80385b3u5j | false | vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Israeli Generals, Low on Munitions, Want a Truce in Gaza ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content":... | Marnix | i5jw0hITGB5MZHKqFEuR | public | contract | 1,720,035,668,215 | will-there-be-an-israelhamas-ceasef-7jumx54i3j | Marnix | Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of July? | null | 0.27 | 701.88618 | YES | null | |
pks5hbp6uas | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Imagine using ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
... | Bruno | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,720,035,748,979 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | ljx2tre60t | null | 3.055573 | NO | xu4agxmfx4 |
qg1saflk6yl | false | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Landfall in Jamaica now appears very unlikely. I will resolve NO once the storm passes the island (unless it dives north)",
"type": "text"
... | Savior of Plant | 1nr9odzvdc | public | contract | 1,720,035,819,331 | at-what-strength-will-hurricane-ber | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | At what strength will Hurricane Beryl make landfall in Jamaica? | 8c5vczt15ss | null | 1,004.936346 | YES | 5zy99nw6gv |
n24x6d1ndu | false | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Someone should resolve YES upto 15% by now. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Sss | PGxoT5DiqA6aAV6RmAbo | public | contract | 1,720,035,941,134 | ai-resolves-at-least-x-on-swebench-f71248ffff46 | Sss19971997 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? | null | null | 382.243984 | YES | 77c1fc139e86 |
g1ly1pgbxk | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "happened to see this because I'm following the market (on future ones you can @ mods and someone will grab it) ",
"type": "text"
}
... | stefanie | PGxoT5DiqA6aAV6RmAbo | public | contract | 1,720,036,038,231 | ai-resolves-at-least-x-on-swebench-f71248ffff46 | shankypanky | AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? | n24x6d1ndu | null | null | null | null | |
zak0w4tl31 | false | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Sss | PGxoT5DiqA6aAV6RmAbo | public | contract | 1,720,036,084,601 | ai-resolves-at-least-x-on-swebench-f71248ffff46 | Sss19971997 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? | n24x6d1ndu | null | 382.243984 | YES | 77c1fc139e86 |
9nsidflgs26 | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Certainly an interesting take but I don't think I agree with the friend lol",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,720,036,112,462 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | mmi0ihzqwh | null | 147.699591 | NO | dcfbedc0e892 |
26ar1qe00nx | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "sure! feel free to reply to this comment thread with the screenshot when more can be resolved and I'll take care of it ",
"type": "text"
... | stefanie | PGxoT5DiqA6aAV6RmAbo | public | contract | 1,720,036,266,974 | ai-resolves-at-least-x-on-swebench-f71248ffff46 | shankypanky | AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? | n24x6d1ndu | null | null | null | null | |
2h31lpbt9hp | false | GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2",
"label": "nathanwei",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"... | Nathan Wei | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,720,036,276,625 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | nathanwei | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | null | null | 313.979418 | NO | 48l8f1upet | |
y4y9c8ctbu | false | dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Alex B. Goode | UNf4xQT6Z97V9NWd3ZWM | public | contract | 1,720,036,312,567 | crowdsourced-mdp-policies-rps-1-pla-25cf7c501ec5 | AlexbGoode | [Let's Play] Rock Paper Scissors! (Player 2) | null | null | 1,706.489855 | YES | 00321651f370 | |
dnmssuh3av | false | GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "China had the \"anti-rightist movement\". In China I guess right-wing means more anti-communist and so liberal and pro-West. But I think liberalism c... | Nathan Wei | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,720,036,318,184 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | nathanwei | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | mmi0ihzqwh | null | 313.979418 | NO | 48l8f1upet | |
hqpxcicvsk | false | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "A 'suit' is defined as a matching jacket and trousers, typically made of the same fabric, accompanied by a dress shirt and a tie, but the dress shirt a... | The Official | UQIVR5EPgi2JSmHoWB5C | public | contract | 1,720,036,467,760 | uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop | 10thOfficial | UEFA Euro Cup 2024 Tournament Prop Bets ⚽ LIVE! | 0dt2zzfvhzpj | null | 1,799.497005 | NO | 94dbi9xjvs | |
8akyc9oc3om | false | qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "1RfsLVzFZwaLLXGaSr5yaG5ink23",
"label": "dgga",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Agh | t8WLYit2C5jhsX63DygQ | public | contract | 1,720,036,587,380 | will-ddg-chat-endure-destinys-kick | Agh | Will DGG chat ENDURE Destiny's Kick contract? | pmy0dl4crgm | null | null | null | null | |
28welhawyp | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Liberal as a word confusingly has several meanings, economically it means capitalist, governmentally it means libertarian, and socially it mean progres... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,720,036,601,438 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | mmi0ihzqwh | null | 161.122484 | NO | dcfbedc0e892 |
v632pqchwla | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2",
"label": "Ernie",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Christopher Randles | CIhQYySwO1aOEfkcZjkd | public | contract | 1,720,036,639,549 | will-tesla-deliver-more-than-5000-c-0723b3dab1ad | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Will Tesla deliver more than 5000 Cybertrucks in H1 2024? | null | 0.99 | 3,975.086117 | YES | null |
9kroc0xnxcv | false | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This is not duplicated. Right now everyone has different agent systems that helps the models to solve the github issues. ",
"type": "text"
... | Sss | HBvCaInZcmy44N1Uf4nN | public | contract | 1,720,036,724,559 | sota-on-a-swebench-assisted-in-octo-0087dcb2d7a9 | Sss19971997 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | SOTA on a SWE-bench [Assisted] in October 2024 | 0neaflw4prll | null | 454.629238 | YES | 465ec5e92e11 |
uw3gog0n2c8 | false | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Germany beats England",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Universal FC ⚽ | ly7tsdpvhd | public | contract | 1,720,036,748,384 | will-winner-match-49-beat-winner-ma | UniversalFC | Will [Winner Match 49] beat [Winner Match 50]? ⚽|🏆 Euro 2024 Final | null | null | null | null | null | |
xefwx163hd | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why is Harris trading higher than Biden? He hasn't stood down has he?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
]... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | amussjh2s6 | public | contract | 1,720,036,754,583 | democratic-presidential-nominee-add | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Democratic presidential nominee? (Add your own!) | null | null | 61.575887 | YES | 68s1nhmmip |
rr74zanvo9 | false | 62H5FJ2lBdWLdA6VX5Fs2BnABIq1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In original paper, assisted meant that authors themselves gave precise files that had to be changed in order to complete the task.",
"type": ... | Mikhail Doroshenko | HBvCaInZcmy44N1Uf4nN | public | contract | 1,720,036,985,761 | sota-on-a-swebench-assisted-in-octo-0087dcb2d7a9 | MikhailDoroshenko | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2EZXqPqqEOHzMNgVpbkP1rgye8PJ3JQa0tj1LH=s96-c | SOTA on a SWE-bench [Assisted] in October 2024 | 0neaflw4prll | null | null | null | null |
2raxubx2dbx | false | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The one time I bet a crazy amount on a “safe” option 💀 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "... | Traveel | QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ | public | contract | 1,720,037,177,784 | who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38 | Traveel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? | null | null | 27,505.592955 | YES | 74d0a1d62039 |
bqa7rskzooo | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03",
"label": "FrederickNorris",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "me... | stefanie | vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN | public | contract | 1,720,037,227,789 | who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445 | shankypanky | Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP) | 81sijlqe1hl | null | 1,668.843141 | YES | fe76c622f53d | |
euu1vm68tpg | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I thought prediction markets incentivised accurate prediction, why is it going all crazy when there's this much liquidity?",
"type": "text"
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ | public | contract | 1,720,037,330,216 | who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38 | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? | h58sjfrk1r | null | 31.069612 | YES | 74d0a1d62039 |
0yms0g3pg8u | false | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ok, thanks. You right. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Sss | HBvCaInZcmy44N1Uf4nN | public | contract | 1,720,037,348,822 | sota-on-a-swebench-assisted-in-octo-0087dcb2d7a9 | Sss19971997 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | SOTA on a SWE-bench [Assisted] in October 2024 | 0neaflw4prll | null | 454.629238 | YES | 465ec5e92e11 |
islvb2wjmfa | false | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1",
"label": "Mich",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Panfilo | cGxGjLDhmPKWTPEkE123 | public | contract | 1,720,037,358,441 | will-i-blow-up-all-mana-and-quit-ma | Panfilo | Will I blow up all Mana and quit Manifold by July 1st 2024 ? | null | 0.122739 | 583.148729 | NO | null | |
vlliujkssa | false | ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Zane | PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS | public | contract | 1,720,037,432,641 | will-kamala-harris-be-the-democrati | ZaneMiller | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
hu7m12hwqyd | false | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The size of the profile picture should be relative to the price value. So at 99.9 it should be the size that Phillips is currently, whereas 0.7% should... | Patrick Delaney | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,720,037,553,645 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | PatrickDelaney | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | efo600qsn9q | null | null | null | null | |
gap8uxhwq59 | false | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "skGf6ln62qPPMIaxpRZG8JH9wbJ3",
"label": "EliLifland",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention... | Sss | WGIZ7erMQ4tQ8X6cewjy | public | contract | 1,720,037,581,304 | sota-on-a-swebench-unassisted-in-oc-b43f56c6780d | Sss19971997 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | SOTA on a SWE-bench [Unassisted] in October 2024 | null | null | 1,396.715163 | YES | b00ef7922d32 |
nwxogc9dj3b | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Basically a market reset. New information is coming out so it is getting back into an accurate state. Like creating a new market at 50%.",
"t... | Predictor 🔥 | QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ | public | contract | 1,720,037,637,097 | who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38 | Predictor | Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? | h58sjfrk1r | null | 1,026.087891 | NO | 191da45534e5 | |
go0xdu9wu4q | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Fuck yeah, so chaotic but I love it.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Predictor 🔥 | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,720,037,672,673 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | Predictor | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | efo600qsn9q | null | null | null | null | |
r1fwy7ulgf | false | OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Well, this definitely should be lower, not that it's likely to resolve anything other than N/A",
"type": "text"
}
],
"typ... | Caleb Biddulph | FFGSZu60OB6jJ590A1Wj | public | contract | 1,720,037,754,918 | if-trump-unexpectedly-doesnt-run-wi | CDBiddulph | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfnooldvqsfyLB7ZRjdJceJURCVsUcLn8Ir7VvJneRY2A=s96-c | If Trump unexpectedly doesn't run, will Biden run for president in 2024? | null | 0.623268 | 1,100.594956 | NO | null |
klhyf2us9b | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "upgraded to basic",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | fwio4yl6ps | public | contract | 1,720,037,866,875 | will-israeli-troops-enter-the-count | strutheo | Will Israeli troops enter the country of Lebanon before the end of August? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ilkplxe33yn | false | v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "51% by 2034 huh, that's like 10 years from now",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | MalachiteEagle | Nc9T6yrdpUP6D2LAJobb | public | contract | 1,720,037,882,972 | will-we-get-asi-before-2034 | MalachiteEagle | Will we get ASI before 2034? | null | null | null | null | null | |
h0f3x1ucgvb | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"lang... | Predictor 🔥 | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,720,037,888,532 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | Predictor | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | xolfgsntz4 | null | null | null | null | |
dm59eh8o0d | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | stefanie | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,037,966,630 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | shankypanky | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.392229 | 29,697.168811 | NO | null | |
q7se4boaxj | false | baMnIuzVIrbXmwlHcDCIrJwODfE2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "We need a VP market conditional on Biden dropping out",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc... | PlainBoomerang | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,037,995,413 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | PlainBG | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FPlainBG%2FYbYTECPDi9.13?alt=media&token=e5868d91-74ae-4d99-9370-3ca5e400adab | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.392229 | 11,630.199224 | NO | null |
xsfpr2rvkn | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "new endorsement just dropped",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,... | stefanie | QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ | public | contract | 1,720,038,001,797 | who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38 | shankypanky | Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? | null | null | 406.033344 | NO | 74d0a1d62039 | |
ck5vj8nq0r6 | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "There is a Dem VP market - ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2",
... | stefanie | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,038,230,632 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | shankypanky | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | q7se4boaxj | 0.400075 | 29,697.168811 | NO | null | |
uek1pewijcd | false | vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Market on Biden's ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
... | Manifold Politics | 7ogm78ukcz | public | contract | 1,720,038,284,555 | how-will-bidens-first-postdebate-in | ManifoldPolitics | How will Biden's first post-debate interview on ABC go relative to concerns about his age and mental status? | null | null | 826.275273 | NO | 82qosbpi3u | |
hjr7miuw55 | false | j9IAK00CE6frsYsaBkTexzdmnWk1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I outsource my critical thinking to ChatGPT.",
"type": "tex... | pessimism | WzxnHHNW3ZJDBQgrhfqd | public | contract | 1,720,038,328,698 | whats-the-most-believable-conspirac | stony | What's the most believable conspiracy theory? | oxfo81bvjmj | null | null | null | null | |
agen6sb64kh | false | H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Reading weekly ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | MP | jV4EY8UuOmW5F7I0Kj5w | public | contract | 1,720,038,452,005 | will-i-be-reading-richardhanania-pe | MP | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf | Will I be reading @RichardHanania periodically in December 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
c8gofug2tl | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "can we have a moderator who thinks biden shouldn't drop out?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type... | nikki | 7ogm78ukcz | public | contract | 1,720,038,503,214 | how-will-bidens-first-postdebate-in | nikki | How will Biden's first post-debate interview on ABC go relative to concerns about his age and mental status? | null | null | 178.906222 | YES | 82qosbpi3u | |
zt2x10ul888 | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "seems the creator has been inactive for a few weeks and I've been sent proof that Disco received funding so resolving Disco yes ",
"type": "t... | stefanie | ihHv8pPo7l3af9ZrKc54 | public | contract | 1,720,038,519,690 | who-will-get-funding-because-of-the | shankypanky | Who will get funding because of their pitch at Manifest 2024? | null | null | 606.642802 | YES | uextgvlgbx | |
uo5wwcfpnt | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "is ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92",
"label": "Tumble... | Ziddletwix | 7ogm78ukcz | public | contract | 1,720,038,528,890 | how-will-bidens-first-postdebate-in | Ziddletwix | How will Biden's first post-debate interview on ABC go relative to concerns about his age and mental status? | c8gofug2tl | null | 262.85298 | NO | 82qosbpi3u | |
203zlh7pwy6 | false | b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "But that's not conditional on Biden dropping out. This one is, kinda: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
... | Muga Sofer | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,038,541,902 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | MugaSofer | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | q7se4boaxj | 0.366528 | -0 | YES | null | |
2qcp0cueta8 | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Hey I was one of the biggest yes holders for biden nom for a bit!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
... | Joshua | 7ogm78ukcz | public | contract | 1,720,038,610,227 | how-will-bidens-first-postdebate-in | Joshua | How will Biden's first post-debate interview on ABC go relative to concerns about his age and mental status? | c8gofug2tl | null | 0 | NO | 14h3twjttc | |
7feeua2iv8d | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I nominate JRay or Tumbles",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | nikki | 7ogm78ukcz | public | contract | 1,720,038,639,220 | how-will-bidens-first-postdebate-in | nikki | How will Biden's first post-debate interview on ABC go relative to concerns about his age and mental status? | c8gofug2tl | null | 178.906222 | YES | 82qosbpi3u | |
5ia0kqejevs | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "claude took the lead here but not kalshi",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | 0583y57tjd | public | contract | 1,720,038,737,658 | which-ai-will-be-the-best-at-the-en-g1kg24yy8h | strutheo | Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025? | null | null | 0 | YES | wzv5gfq7cu | |
hvgzw5ejxxn | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "if anyone has proof of other funding received ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
... | stefanie | ihHv8pPo7l3af9ZrKc54 | public | contract | 1,720,038,808,130 | who-will-get-funding-because-of-the | shankypanky | Who will get funding because of their pitch at Manifest 2024? | null | null | 606.642802 | YES | uextgvlgbx | |
pqdlg6dyug | false | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "From the Manifest Discord, someone who is affiliated with Disco:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
... | Austin | ihHv8pPo7l3af9ZrKc54 | public | contract | 1,720,038,974,775 | who-will-get-funding-because-of-the | Austin | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | Who will get funding because of their pitch at Manifest 2024? | zt2x10ul888 | null | null | null | null |
3slippcm6r7 | false | 7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "YES!!! The Tories have over the last 14 years pissed off all sections of British society, and now it's payback time.",
"type": "text"
... | Ponti Min | M13x60ilxiOqk885AIo1 | public | contract | 1,720,038,996,893 | what-will-be-about-the-next-uk-gene | PontiMin | What will be true about the next UK general election? | qw98fxt809 | null | 176.666534 | NO | 522955a2a815 | |
a050mopstw | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "yes it's not a conditional market but does have more options (and is open for submissions) so it's good to have different formats depending on where yo... | stefanie | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,039,117,611 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | shankypanky | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | q7se4boaxj | 0.377359 | 29,697.168811 | NO | null | |
jcizelr4wfg | false | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I was actually very surprised by Biden's poor debate performance and I've spent some time argued he's mentally mostly fine for the past year, although ... | jackson polack | 7ogm78ukcz | public | contract | 1,720,039,206,659 | how-will-bidens-first-postdebate-in | jacksonpolack | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | How will Biden's first post-debate interview on ABC go relative to concerns about his age and mental status? | c8gofug2tl | null | 0 | NO | 14h3twjttc |
pd7ablz4ez | false | b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Oh, I didn't notice it wasn't accepting submissions, it's kind of useless then.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"... | Muga Sofer | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,039,249,411 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | MugaSofer | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | q7se4boaxj | 0.377913 | -0 | YES | null | |
6fv6k3lvq62 | false | xwMki73QMuMqZuKJYVj2sweCIKn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Funny that he is in the \"Bayesian predictors\" division.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": ... | Scipio Fabius | xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f | public | contract | 1,720,039,326,618 | will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e | ScipioFabius | Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8? | mxx9ika39xk | 0.567246 | 85.818907 | NO | null | |
cy2p0fehm8u | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "wow only 1% rip flynn boys",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | xkwjb84pmn | public | contract | 1,720,039,359,515 | will-trumps-vice-president-running-i1df21wu3z | strutheo | Will Trump's Vice President Running Mate be Michael Flynn? | null | null | null | null | null | |
elqnm9fo5ol | false | Tz41xTDNKjN48bgtH7Me4TYoTKQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "www.ajc.com",
"type": "text"
}
],
"typ... | Leonardo | 1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM | public | contract | 1,720,039,377,061 | will-jimmy-carter-become-a-centenar | LeonardoKr | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpog6i--u15_WA_66nvBoZhXHAdY-Bksm1f9q8CmA=s96-c | Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian? | ktjjoubzk2 | 0.635187 | 26,025.037266 | YES | null |
u62yte6ssak | false | b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "OP, any word on whether you consider these to qualify?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "do... | Muga Sofer | ujrafdwje4Wgk2o5ouLW | public | contract | 1,720,039,478,270 | will-we-learn-anything-in-the-next | MugaSofer | Will we learn anything in the next 6 months that would significantly alter the Sam Altman Firing Market's resolution? | btvpvknv047 | 0.16 | 290.98091 | YES | null | |
gwooajtkgzp | false | srqK0MA5FBYrXLBAYrh41JxIvJA3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752",
"label": "Lorelai",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Abhi | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,720,039,567,845 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | Skyguy | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | null | null | 70.636964 | YES | i7k7cg6yb7 | |
xavimzvyp1 | false | jI4ieUMlGLZZ9z7BAguuZCWQ0Px1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Maybe they will announce something at Comicon or D23.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc... | Emanuele | WHtNiDeC3YROGoLyKYrl | public | contract | 1,720,039,668,411 | which-actor-to-replace-jonathan-maj | Emanuele98 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJPBrnVgPVdTLj2WETZQ92p8QhxB-wiacgZPq1yTlBO=s96-c | Which actor to replace Jonathan Majors in the role of Kang? | null | null | 400.604939 | YES | 602bf2189cb7 |
7z0eartap0k | false | n9g6oDj4dqgJQyE0P0PBsex1sWI2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63",
"label": "Mad",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Daniel Tilkin | 8vdHPrqDNDeoEKOqwG9N | public | contract | 1,720,039,913,742 | who-will-be-the-next-chess-player-t-266fa6b12d16 | DanielTilkin | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaD_F3MPbut-et9lJUiLj_dMo5cRkQ70utJs_egAQ=s96-c | Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical) | null | null | 9,237.136121 | YES | 0511249f09d4 |
haub8huenwc | false | mkhykvIBw0XRewCw3MQZwdFIWEG2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Victor Novikov | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,039,924,815 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | VictorNovikov | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJRuQjfNZHQTUVHN_2XZwuEZCIzGG318tqjUPSFWptz0TA4IDXb8g=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.368568 | 8,258.240278 | NO | null |
5nc1ipeximw | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "ah the conditional is open for submissions I just meant there's a list of potentials on the VP market so you could bet without paying to add them as we... | stefanie | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,040,161,233 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | shankypanky | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | q7se4boaxj | 0.371548 | 29,697.168811 | NO | null | |
dl6ld1dhqh | false | TRMyprcr6bUZg03elAhrDrqGhJI2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "His campaign has pushed back against a New York Times ... | Rían | 4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F | public | contract | 1,720,040,204,880 | will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres | Rian | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKflj97UlccoOKknzYHMROuPhdqRMQxHLJc3H5YGZ5_iUqAHA=s96-c | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 3td9wlyrf5c | 0.163877 | 810.54359 | YES | null |
oy7347aliq | false | b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Muga Sofer | Hkn8Lakzyr73wbMEup4K | public | contract | 1,720,040,218,640 | will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e | MugaSofer | Will GPT-5 be released before Jul 2024? | null | 0.01 | 1,302.348872 | NO | null | |
0pxpw3x7alks | false | I3d0KopTtNcbmTumPn5ixZWYpEU2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "damn I should learn php",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Hastings Greer | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,720,040,248,638 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | HastingsGreer | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdVvVtp5FQGEq41bZbwCNGQmKDM0UTp3g4lW0a2IzUD7Vc=s96-c | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | 9qqwvem83e7 | null | null | null | null |
k4lfukgiqzk | false | 4Ou4U9ubQ8f4pMsswck3jZjyXEH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "give me mod guys my positions are very pro-Biden and so I will be very objective",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph... | Eric Zhu | 7ogm78ukcz | public | contract | 1,720,040,290,164 | how-will-bidens-first-postdebate-in | EricZhu | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKwS96LK82L2BHeWwAKQ5BGUK0vOjwgZXMXaXONBMqTYi-vgZ48=s96-c | How will Biden's first post-debate interview on ABC go relative to concerns about his age and mental status? | c8gofug2tl | null | null | null | null |
28pn1kyuipv | false | MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If you don’t see the market you like then make one!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
... | Jim | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,040,350,595 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | JimAusman | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | q7se4boaxj | 0.371548 | 1,755.43483 | NO | null | |
otxdqqxghe | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Bug was corrected:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"... | Kongo Landwalker | wIBFFj7JYQepQn560EMP | public | contract | 1,720,040,380,468 | when-will-my-profit-mana-become-pos | KongoLandwalker | When will my profit mana become positive again? | pv7fsucib4 | null | 2,904.837045 | YES | f9dd6c786383 | |
nz9jsmx83e | false | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "KBst3pfIgSgTVGXcnPimgzfE9I23",
"label": "SHs4ca",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Austin | 8FGwbZmhgvZguFXHhBjV | public | contract | 1,720,040,496,846 | will-two-people-who-first-meet-in-p-db15621c342f | Austin | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | Will two people who first meet in person at Manifest 2024 be married by EOY 2025? | null | null | null | null | null |
v1xyv5znrvr | false | XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Peter Miller | wqsQ50eDaOE10zoAWjcc | public | contract | 1,720,040,613,520 | mysterious-market-5 | PeterMillerc030 | Will Tumbles reach negative one million in lifetime profit? | null | 0.956638 | 456.598487 | YES | null | |
9q9y7zmwor | false | bj2HHw8ukXYsrqD5Ms5jYfNwCfQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "All the Dem insider types are trying really hard to be as tactful as possible, but everyone (who's not totally delusional) knows they're screwed with B... | NT | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,040,718,316 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | n_t | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtf9ABsWnJwqWByRDhIaTC7G3Yi7-PIQDpBvmpTpWJ-6=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | haub8huenwc | null | null | null | null |
dijdo8rinht | false | i33gtGvfnFZwli6Q4Adpjthz4Lw1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Here y'all go:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"... | CelebratedWhale | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,040,843,181 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | CelebratedWhale | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | q7se4boaxj | 0.376158 | 4,108.582367 | NO | null | |
2ye61xggbtb | false | sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I would avoid conditional markets without a \"Biden doesn't drop out\" option, because of Manifold's new policy on N/A resolutions",
"type": ... | Ben Shindel | 0hdpfslmcl | public | contract | 1,720,040,940,415 | conditional-on-biden-dropping-out-w-tfcbbs9jur | benshindel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c | Conditional on Biden dropping out, who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President? [Add answers] | null | null | null | null | null |
82b5pucvcip | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Oh, thanks for compiling this! Definitely some interesting info here, but I think most of this isn't enough to count as a significant alteration to the... | Joshua | ujrafdwje4Wgk2o5ouLW | public | contract | 1,720,041,063,307 | will-we-learn-anything-in-the-next | Joshua | Will we learn anything in the next 6 months that would significantly alter the Sam Altman Firing Market's resolution? | btvpvknv047 | null | null | null | null | |
9c8w5g605mr | false | DfJm6cMNVVhsbJL5FKcSG9z4Nrv1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "And now we have NO on the remainder :)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ciuccio | n0A0OqRsZsQRui2yEIBa | public | contract | 1,720,041,343,761 | which-of-these-pending-free-agents | Ciuccio | Which of these pending free agents will the Vancouver Canucks sign to contract extensions on or before July 1, 2024? | null | null | 247.647348 | NO | 6ec122121dae | |
7fmem2j5gr9 | false | 9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I don't know why this closed already; it should probably stay open until the election?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "par... | arae | FmO39Xu2f5cYp2TMEfnw | public | contract | 1,720,041,388,349 | conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-t | a | Conditional on a Democrat winning the U.S. Presidency in 2024, will I think that some Republicans or Republican supporters attempted to use violence to install a different President before the first 3 months of the new administration? | null | null | null | null | null | |
gyqfkb1cfnw | false | faAZQRWR2YTPZJAYEXhw56ydDHL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Come back to me when you get that advice on how to explain it, cheers",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
]... | Chris Mills | 2l0jx5q7hr | public | contract | 1,720,041,457,659 | inversion-resolutions-what-would-be | ChrisMillsc5f7 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLmttkO7a_SkKKmgvJV_wh3BtRxvZZxf0PCf1Z7MbCn=s96-c | [Inversing Resolutions] What would be true in a world where Donald Trump wins the election? | j35mzhjtgva | null | null | null | null |
fs2dtc3z2cq | false | 1RfsLVzFZwaLLXGaSr5yaG5ink23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Cake did state the contract will end by July 1st, as posted below in the screenshot (Cake's messages have been redacted since but ",
"type": ... | duN | t8WLYit2C5jhsX63DygQ | public | contract | 1,720,041,686,579 | will-ddg-chat-endure-destinys-kick | dgga | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdgga%2F_HQHzw0yrx.0?alt=media&token=b8a7e5fb-51e0-49fa-b18c-463f38fe9ecc | Will DGG chat ENDURE Destiny's Kick contract? | pmy0dl4crgm | 0.980489 | 4,589.816153 | YES | null |
bjbmht3vm9e | false | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "So this market rose from 26% earlier today to 45% after Biden said on a campaign call to all employees that he was 100% not dropping out.",
"... | Steve Sokolowski | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,042,015,335 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | SteveSokolowski | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | null | null | null | null |
9ff9xc44ydw | false | UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "resolves yes",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"te... | Blomfilter | ySsZAK9Tvv2OaRH9bv7T | public | contract | 1,720,042,166,011 | will-rfk-jr-make-the-ballot-in-colo | Blomfilter | Will RFK Jr. make the ballot in Colorado for the 2024 Presidential election? | null | 0.932572 | 2,165.714376 | YES | null | |
0hnlob2sge4b | false | 9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Michael | 7n58fdpeax | public | contract | 1,720,042,323,248 | will-a-second-sitting-democrat-cong | burkh4rt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv31Whhbh-4wrvOPbGM9zLTlznsRJp_8zkd0nrodHyg6za=s96-c | Will a second sitting Democrat Congressman or Senator publicly urge Biden to drop out before July 7th? | null | null | null | null | null |
qxjfqkcdvy | false | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Sure wish this was a Prize Market ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt":... | SirCryptomind | JVnuDTxOYJdXJFadNSKf | public | contract | 1,720,042,505,016 | what-event-will-happen-first-israel | SirCryptomind | What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Biden Re-elected | null | null | null | null | null | |
ph6k2r21qdn | false | KMOc8XM9hGbSYHrVJYkuVrUyctu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Right now both are higher than the biggest \"dems win\" market and I'm not sure how to fix it... I want to short both options.",
"type": "tex... | Molly Hickman | 9pn8l739v9 | public | contract | 1,720,042,853,679 | conditional-upon-the-democratic-par | MollyHickman | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfmrkUTtzCqYQWaY8AhMUxs0I6GWbJwsUojyBbMo5Mq0g=s96-c | Conditional upon the Democratic party replacing Joe Biden as nominee, will they win the election? | null | null | null | null | null |
o4yrb2kxrh | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "upgrade to basic",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | t1ltjjud4g | public | contract | 1,720,043,011,055 | will-there-be-a-chinese-ai-better-t | strutheo | Will there be a Chinese AI better than OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic by the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
xddkcg4jtef | false | KMOc8XM9hGbSYHrVJYkuVrUyctu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Oh no, my bad! I misread this, I thought it was \"conditional on Biden being replaced, dems win\" and \"conditional on Biden not being replaced, dems w... | Molly Hickman | 9pn8l739v9 | public | contract | 1,720,043,093,235 | conditional-upon-the-democratic-par | MollyHickman | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfmrkUTtzCqYQWaY8AhMUxs0I6GWbJwsUojyBbMo5Mq0g=s96-c | Conditional upon the Democratic party replacing Joe Biden as nominee, will they win the election? | ph6k2r21qdn | null | 0 | YES | z28u0lw03n |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.