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... | Ansel | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,720,106,691,477 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | Ansel | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | filz33s9xrq | null | 2,520.172956 | YES | 892080ca10c6 | |
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... | Matt F | xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f | public | contract | 1,720,106,861,876 | will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e | MattF | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYf96igKYDAeeCDmrp2xMBcvOR_WlVaHNpyCQbonQ=s96-c | Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8? | 5ry37hl9nz | 0.657094 | 420,069.663596 | YES | null |
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} | Jake | i8ZubSlCyYjBmcyMny8g | public | contract | 1,720,106,879,092 | which-sprinters-will-win-a-stage-at | JCE | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJCE%2FcPtjpARFTB.05?alt=media&token=30a31166-c2d4-4e74-8676-ad1a9cd4f10f | Which SPRINTERS will win a stage at the 2024 Tour de France? | null | null | 1,001.878873 | YES | c11be4bee70f |
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"text": "No - the cases against Trump haven’t been directed by Biden and have been largely conducted in the traditional legal framework. If Biden passed a bunch... | I123 | 4wcb85kkeg | public | contract | 1,720,107,057,124 | will-the-us-undergo-a-major-politic | I123 | Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027 | e8lv33mttg5 | 0.412716 | 9.446583 | YES | null | |
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... | Zsigmondy | 79cbb2ao5r | public | contract | 1,720,107,057,851 | after-the-last-stage-21-of-the-2024 | zsig | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIdeCnRcThY0p-up_nQ7SQxDoXDMvVEPxmM3cvsTQgC4Jeb_A=s96-c | After (the last) Stage 21 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot Vert? | null | null | 78.628769 | YES | 8ttxskypld |
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"type": ... | JRP | vclk0o7spd | public | contract | 1,720,107,082,254 | at-what-intensity-will-hurricane-be | parhizj | At what intensity will Hurricane Beryl first make landfall in Mexico? | null | null | 1,196.605513 | YES | kv0f1jlawt | |
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} | Kevin Shoe | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,107,105,349 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | KevinShoe | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJtFhX9F_E8_aTAi5UAleTjhCrzmkl9o-Nvq8Whl3nT8CY3mA=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | yuo0bkeqwcs | 0.525366 | 14.056473 | YES | null |
k78uinniuv8 | false | BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82 | {
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"text": "This is why modern LLMs should not be used for reasoning. Using this logic, animals don't enjoy anything. That dog jumping up and down and barking for ... | For Truth | s7b3q9x08b | public | contract | 1,720,107,135,968 | does-listening-to-music-lead-to-hig | ForTruth | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c | Does listening to music lead to higher utility? | 275vda80j8n | 0.255011 | 376.564092 | YES | null |
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"text": "I actually don't think it's that obtuse. Trump has also never held elected office, and has proved how much of a narcissist he is over and over again. H... | shadowyzephyr | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,720,107,567,521 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | ShadowyZephyr | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | filz33s9xrq | null | 16,674.281351 | YES | d827ecde0e0b | |
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]... | Jonathan Ray | url2vico9x | public | contract | 1,720,107,576,000 | how-will-scientific-consensus-in-20 | JonathanRay | How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe? | 4xzkeyydx8n | null | null | null | null | |
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} | I123 | vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN | public | contract | 1,720,107,633,433 | who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445 | I123 | Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP) | null | null | 1,394.840619 | YES | 086ed0cbbf50 | |
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... | Jonathan Ray | url2vico9x | public | contract | 1,720,107,655,774 | how-will-scientific-consensus-in-20 | JonathanRay | How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe? | 4xzkeyydx8n | null | null | null | null | |
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"text": "That doesn't require reasoning. It is quite a widely accepted fact that animals are incapable of enjoying music in the way humans do. Have you ever see... | Patrik Cihal | s7b3q9x08b | public | contract | 1,720,107,703,054 | does-listening-to-music-lead-to-hig | patrik | Does listening to music lead to higher utility? | 275vda80j8n | 0.255011 | 54,791.6868 | NO | null | |
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... | No one | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,720,107,764,587 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | Noone9ff8 | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | b0jkl4axd7 | 0.390754 | 1,361.121551 | NO | null | |
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... | Al Quinn | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,720,107,833,600 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | AlQuinn | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | filz33s9xrq | null | 2,392.997159 | YES | 230d5d1b7613 |
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... | Shaked Koplewitz | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,720,108,128,616 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | filz33s9xrq | null | 3,256.933538 | YES | 33b8f3dc81b9 |
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... | Muga Sofer | nXKrVTp2OhgyDxNNhw3v | public | contract | 1,720,108,381,356 | will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-2a1f39f1aada | MugaSofer | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before July 1st 2024? | null | 0.01 | 214.774099 | NO | null | |
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"text": "I just know you won't be able to produce such an example. Animals that haven't evolved the extra reward for predicting sounds, won't react to melody, r... | Patrik Cihal | s7b3q9x08b | public | contract | 1,720,110,766,026 | does-listening-to-music-lead-to-hig | patrik | Does listening to music lead to higher utility? | 275vda80j8n | 0.255011 | 54,791.6868 | NO | null | |
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... | Elliot Davies | SOmpj6kiGHETkC72cmSN | public | contract | 1,720,110,926,891 | which-interpretation-of-quantum-mec-b5900a8db891 | ElliotDavies | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c | Which interpretation of Quantum Mechanics is closest to the truth? | null | null | 164.882341 | YES | 3669c82ab7c2 |
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"... | nic | xJMhW9EEyhHShyRXTp3G | public | contract | 1,720,110,989,170 | will-this-yudkowsky-tweet-hold-up-2 | nic_kup | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi1nJQXNQ3PA-wqCPsU9jqSly3kAwGkSulM3lRmYw=s96-c | Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI video generation hold up in 2024? | null | 0.49 | 985.806164 | YES | null |
apy0j3ddbap | false | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | {
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"content": ... | Antoine Dusséaux | IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O | public | contract | 1,720,111,032,000 | will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20 | adssx | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024? | 5l3xfh2sts9 | 0.21 | 139.565268 | YES | null |
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... | Ziddletwix | PTLa60sHN0fISadXCxx9 | public | contract | 1,720,111,057,580 | will-inside-out-2-receive-a-higher | Ziddletwix | Will "Inside Out 2" receive a higher CinemaScore than "Despicable Me 4"? | null | 0.009633 | 9,095.735482 | NO | null | |
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"text": "These two seem like they have so much overlap. I am an idiot for betting in this market but I will do it any way. ",
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}... | jim | 7ogm78ukcz | public | contract | 1,720,111,060,125 | how-will-bidens-first-postdebate-in | jim | How will Biden's first post-debate interview on ABC go relative to concerns about his age and mental status? | null | null | 198.137901 | YES | 8kbozgipm7 | |
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... | stefanie | zyvtbg9wns | public | contract | 1,720,111,110,278 | bay-area-bingo-what-will-i-experien-6ufcpdbqcj | shankypanky | Bay Area Bingo: what will I experience/encounter while living here for two months? | null | null | 1,043.005175 | YES | cplbia3h6o | |
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"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Jack | O50e6qWQ7hzyeTq5JKSn | public | contract | 1,720,111,208,693 | will-biden-drop-out-of-the-presiden | jack | Will Biden drop out of the presidential race before the DNC? | null | 0.3928 | 353.730773 | NO | null | |
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"text": "Sorry for the snark. I see a lot of populism-posting online these days, so I may have misread the tone of your comment. The Democratic party as an orga... | No one | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,720,111,212,631 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | Noone9ff8 | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | b0jkl4axd7 | 0.386752 | 1,361.121551 | NO | null | |
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"text": "There is one fantasy technology which would solve the materials problem: nuclear fusion to get raw materials up to Fe.",
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... | Kongo Landwalker | 1qlwls37nw | public | contract | 1,720,111,284,332 | will-the-world-economy-grow-by-more-e6m5dvmnf2 | KongoLandwalker | Will the world economy grow by more than 10000% in a single year before the year X? | uwlyay3o9j | null | null | null | null | |
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"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | duN | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,720,111,293,565 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | dgga | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdgga%2F_HQHzw0yrx.0?alt=media&token=b8a7e5fb-51e0-49fa-b18c-463f38fe9ecc | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | null | 0.386752 | 7,270.746186 | NO | null |
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... | Charlie Bauer | gcmw8asnsg | public | contract | 1,720,111,515,702 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-within-24-h | CharlieBauer | Will Joe Biden drop out within 24 hours of his interview with George Stephanopoulos (ABC)? | null | 0.129582 | 0 | NO | null | |
s4far2pmk8 | false | q8NamnyLmnbtuvMIvHlK2cERb3y1 | {
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} | Peregrine | IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O | public | contract | 1,720,111,593,830 | will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20 | Peregrine | Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024? | 5l3xfh2sts9 | 0.21 | 2,451.715558 | YES | null | |
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"text": "incumbency historically has been such a huge advantage that it's pretty m... | Shaked Koplewitz | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,720,111,607,738 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | b0jkl4axd7 | 0.386752 | 69.810473 | NO | null |
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"text": "lol 😂 There are enough ressources on earth and in surrounding space. But increasing mining, processing and transportation by the factor 100 is just 36... | Jan | 1qlwls37nw | public | contract | 1,720,111,636,221 | will-the-world-economy-grow-by-more-e6m5dvmnf2 | Jan53274 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c | Will the world economy grow by more than 10000% in a single year before the year X? | uwlyay3o9j | null | 311.906695 | NO | 85ka40g3gn |
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} | Iason Koukas | c1srgjd8os | public | contract | 1,720,111,788,728 | low-skill-immigration-decreases-low | IasonKoukas | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJIJyDLPEuPXNOzTrfsptZ48FfaLCZm5IfcjrS0XnYKx8=s96-c | “Low skill immigration decreases low skill wages” OR “increasing minimum wage decreases employment” | null | null | null | null | null |
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"... | JRP | xccqxanhys | public | contract | 1,720,111,840,581 | when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named-scfq04l2u5 | parhizj | When will a tropical storm be named Aletta in 2024? | b3icfnu20jg | null | 154.203871 | YES | enmp8q8e2j | |
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"text": "One thing that might work against democrats is that people won't turn out if they don't believe he can win.",
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... | MP | 4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F | public | contract | 1,720,112,018,755 | will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres | MP | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | 0.2292 | 0 | NO | null |
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"attrs": null... | 😸 | 613zjgmowh | public | contract | 1,720,112,481,824 | which-option-will-get-the-lowest-an | SCS | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fl70bi%2FLmIna_j0eW.11?alt=media&token=30c49838-b87d-47c3-a605-4574d09e491c | Which options will get the lowest and highest percent? | null | null | 19.806258 | YES | agu7s46916 |
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... | Al Quinn | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,720,112,558,048 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | AlQuinn | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | filz33s9xrq | null | 2,392.997159 | YES | 230d5d1b7613 |
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"text": "True, but your examples highlight the dangers of replacing the incumbent. Eisenhower annihilated the candidate who replaced Truman. Same thing happened... | No one | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,720,112,703,218 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | Noone9ff8 | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | b0jkl4axd7 | 0.397479 | 1,361.121551 | NO | null | |
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} | robm | Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv | public | contract | 1,720,112,717,690 | agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708 | robm | AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test] | 51e4e9daig | null | 9,318.553753 | YES | 5d48ed784957 | |
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... | Ari Zerner | c78lo9vjaa | public | contract | 1,720,112,858,927 | will-anyone-pay-me-to-solve-a-probl | AriZerner | Will anyone pay me to solve a problem for them? | 8dozarqkax | null | null | null | null | |
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"text": "In the last 10 seconds of this video, SpaceX essentially confirms they will attempt a tower catch of the booster on flight five.",
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... | Niko | 8bg2gmki91 | public | contract | 1,720,113,918,282 | will-russian-forces-control-majorit | Moscow25 | Will Russian forces control majority of Chasiv Yar by November 5th, according to pro-Ukrainian mapper DeepStateMAP? | null | 0.5 | 129.303597 | NO | null | |
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... | Ziddletwix | urOTeLWqln0HK9l3Q1zZ | public | contract | 1,720,113,928,719 | amazon-amzn-stock-price-at-end-of-2-5974916d83e9 | Ziddletwix | Amazon (AMZN) Stock Price at end of 2024-Q2 if CEO Andy Jassy STAYS | se27n7cjgf | 0.875369 | 53.284369 | YES | null | |
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... | Ziddletwix | Em57r7KwGnsip0Qj7ZRQ | public | contract | 1,720,114,003,968 | will-openai-face-a-lawsuit-in-which | Ziddletwix | Will OpenAI face a lawsuit in which a company claims that a GPT they released was copied or cloned, by July 1, 2024? | null | 0.044912 | 606.765858 | NO | null | |
ltaz0htcm1n | false | BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82 | {
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"... | For Truth | s7b3q9x08b | public | contract | 1,720,114,015,928 | does-listening-to-music-lead-to-hig | ForTruth | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c | Does listening to music lead to higher utility? | 275vda80j8n | 0.253923 | 376.564092 | YES | null |
94ztm1n7skv | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
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"type": "mention... | Ziddletwix | bzhWrnWuWm2RUeG7SncY | public | contract | 1,720,114,028,704 | will-garry-tan-be-ycombinator-ceo-o | Ziddletwix | Will Garry Tan be YCombinator CEO on July 1, 2024? | null | 0.98432 | 2,043.228576 | YES | null | |
ganyo6cfdnj | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
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"text": "got a ruling? or planning to N/A? or wait til you can find more data?",
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]... | Ziddletwix | Ce5tfwuPZuEhBBbTKkHS | public | contract | 1,720,114,058,030 | will-lewiss-book-on-sbf-sell-more-c | Ziddletwix | Will Lewis's book on SBF sell more copies than Isaacson's book on Elon Musk by Mid 2024 | k5y4zrntiy | 0.027843 | 1,065.869072 | NO | null |
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