id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2
classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2
values | commentType stringclasses 1
value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2
values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
w7848wwya6 | false | PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "miluu03tcuc",
"label": "0xSMW",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | 0xSMW | E2bt4Pf7xIHFgBC6nyWb | public | contract | 1,716,980,742,869 | is-openai-building-a-search-engine | 0xSMW | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtebzQADjl9sxVe3FwAwXHh0rvywWS3WBEkCu89gmBWd7hs=s96-c | Is OpenAI building a search engine? | 49nd1pm90fa | 0.814821 | 437.559324 | YES | null |
qt5cbg8fpq8 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If this can't be run at market close, will the market stay close or be extended? this matters for the pricing of Other",
"type": "text"
... | Bayesian | DQluW2ylk5m0oaonjxJt | public | contract | 1,716,980,874,598 | which-option-will-golden-gate-gpt-c | Bayesian | Which option will Golden Gate GPT choose to win? [Free Response - 48 hours] | null | null | 820.595934 | YES | 81a52d294e21 | |
qqnsgd3136f | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "and because my understanding was that golden gate claude isn't available now. Not sure about that, and if it's not the case then this question doesn't ... | Bayesian | DQluW2ylk5m0oaonjxJt | public | contract | 1,716,980,912,819 | which-option-will-golden-gate-gpt-c | Bayesian | Which option will Golden Gate GPT choose to win? [Free Response - 48 hours] | qt5cbg8fpq8 | null | 820.595934 | YES | 81a52d294e21 | |
6oiq02y4gfp | false | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "9nrncdbdzb",
"label": "Dustin",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | Quantum Gambler | 30EzAFfW4YdQWOqodZIQ | public | contract | 1,716,980,980,005 | which-team-will-win-the-western-con | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | Which team will win the Western Conference? Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks | l1bhyziolbl | null | 656.427617 | YES | bfba958c6a86 |
uq8w8qbllfl | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "are you suggesting that the presence of any silly markets has made this site worse? the comment was never for \"more\" than the status quo, but rather... | stefanie | mEID6f2b0a1D1XnJyf9V | public | contract | 1,716,981,294,239 | will-manifold-add-a-cheaper-tier-fo | shankypanky | Will Manifold add a cheaper tier for question creation by the end of June? (e.g. 100 mana cost) | khem9w34jga | null | null | null | null | |
w25s7966avr | false | PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The Conservatives best bets in Wales look to be ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
... | Noit | BcQ8qOoORYIt5E4SYmRJ | public | contract | 1,716,981,297,839 | after-the-next-general-election-wil | Noit | After the next General Election, will the Conservative Party only hold seats in England? | null | 0.240605 | 562.549699 | NO | null | |
25tvvzz3fow | false | O9I4q6Z8eqMV3rBAuPqhwTxgiY83 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Must the offer be extended by the end of June? What if a candidate begins the process in June but does not receive an offer until July?",
"ty... | pzet | 9GJhfeuAZG7f6hrAUC4V | public | contract | 1,716,981,437,858 | will-a-software-engineer-get-a-job | pzet | Will a software engineer get a job through the tech hiring startup Otherbranch.com by the end of June? | null | null | null | null | null | |
qirfb8iajf | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "f3od05bhmt9",
"label": "SanghyeonSeo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | JRP | e3ah02wnqsS2hwQYTgQs | public | contract | 1,716,981,539,456 | will-someone-sell-a-nonlithium-ev-b | parhizj | Will someone sell a non-lithium EV before 2025? | f3od05bhmt9 | 0.548644 | 0 | NO | null | |
w2gbweh5ni9 | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | stefanie | iBzWQphneI3X3n0yIkWv | public | contract | 1,716,982,036,425 | how-will-this-controversial-polymar | shankypanky | How will this controversial Polymarket about Nikki Haley endorsing Trump before June resolve? | null | 0.98811 | 8,277.286509 | YES | null | |
fad2nmg4fv4 | false | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Starmer says that she’s not banned from running as the Labour candidate here… But he’s also not explicitly saying that she is allowed to either.",
... | Simon Grayson | yeRdT27omnNdjBZKbU9O | public | contract | 1,716,982,094,669 | uk-general-election-2024-will-diane | SimonGrayson | UK General Election 2024 - Will Diane Abbot stand as a candidate? | null | null | 559.729623 | YES | 62549f652f9f | |
fz8yp9kk6si | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "gy83c13sfou",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Jack | qYlrays9eAYeUJHZCUSE | public | contract | 1,716,982,296,549 | will-jan-leike-still-be-leading-sup | jack | Will Jan Leike still be leading Superalignment in 4 years? | q7ippsfcki | 0.01 | 4,467.789058 | NO | null | |
lvhhiq0uxo | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | stefanie | mEID6f2b0a1D1XnJyf9V | public | contract | 1,716,982,420,742 | will-manifold-add-a-cheaper-tier-fo | shankypanky | Will Manifold add a cheaper tier for question creation by the end of June? (e.g. 100 mana cost) | khem9w34jga | null | null | null | null | |
y6mye5pyt2 | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "f509kmsjo94",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Ziddletwix | Puz9gEnTqCSOQNxhgsm2 | public | contract | 1,716,982,694,884 | will-the-time-100-most-influential | Ziddletwix | Will the TIME 100 Most Influential Companies of 2024 list actually come out in May as promised? | 3umkces52o5 | 0.702884 | 3,563.632618 | YES | null | |
b3qj5j2wrz | false | vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "393i02u487f",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | shadowyzephyr | KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0 | public | contract | 1,716,982,877,516 | good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr | ShadowyZephyr | Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week? | trq3eud0ap | null | 358.729483 | NO | 08f3bd80933e | |
gvldp74iokq | false | vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is it the median or mean person? If it's based on the median, you would expect this for all generations, because the rich are taxed more than the poor,... | shadowyzephyr | KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0 | public | contract | 1,716,982,926,688 | good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr | ShadowyZephyr | Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week? | null | null | 358.729483 | NO | 08f3bd80933e | |
tncqhkxkiz | false | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "OFGIpCFT69fNGtojNGf1z6nHg4y1",
"label": "costlySignal",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | The Official | hdzlosvTGBdygRJpL9CF | public | contract | 1,716,983,311,226 | who-will-be-barcelonas-next-coach | 10thOfficial | Who will be Barcelona's next coach? | null | null | 11,723.562234 | YES | bfba304333f4 | |
liyxdb7s0ek | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "y6mye5pyt2",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Bayesian | Puz9gEnTqCSOQNxhgsm2 | public | contract | 1,716,983,324,027 | will-the-time-100-most-influential | Bayesian | Will the TIME 100 Most Influential Companies of 2024 list actually come out in May as promised? | 3umkces52o5 | 0.702884 | 29.571157 | YES | null | |
7ffsmjel0vm | false | bLt6k1O80HbqWMzqrsWtsktGLGx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "A fascinating plot prompt—",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Susanne inFrance | SlJATHYKS01uxYVye81t | public | contract | 1,716,983,591,820 | will-ai-take-over-the-world-and-kee | SusanneinFrance | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIDOs86WcHU8dwcDIj414T7jk_b0RgedXuz4g-gxhsW=s96-c | Will AI take over the world and keep humans as pets before the year 2100 | null | null | null | null | null |
taq0fp4a65o | false | HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ez5mi9u4hrw",
"label": "TimothyJohnson5c16",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Odoacre | xdwIrS1AIPJ5YFOMwGAo | public | contract | 1,716,983,650,401 | will-manifold-demote-any-prize-mark | Odoacre | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a | Will manifold demote any Prize Market to regular market ? (2024) | fgxb4cc522q | null | null | null | null |
371dlbv86od | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Did he get some sort of subsidy, protection from competition, or some other unearned benefit from the government? Or did he just see a good business op... | Bruno | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,984,304,301 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | null | null | null | null | null |
3y4t95qanyb | false | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Lion | 5E2YmsdyCzN0NLgamFHW | public | contract | 1,716,984,495,369 | who-will-be-the-richest-person-in-t-6a26849b397f | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | Who will be the richest person in the world at the end of May 31st 2024? (Forbes) | null | null | 390.347506 | YES | ce2071b8c8be |
eipg17sfd64 | false | NpMMO5jy1BajObWxUgg9Nk5Wstg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Teddy Weverka | xCxl6OFDrptGJZuwxTlK | public | contract | 1,716,985,337,772 | will-tioga-road-open-by-may-29th-20 | TeddyWeverka | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYs8wz6ugEqvtxofXIdn-8Bg2zz_nRePvJR5pGuVw=s96-c | Will Tioga Pass 120 be open by May 29th 2024? | null | 0.011653 | 0 | YES | null |
uy85ptkz8tj | false | NpMMO5jy1BajObWxUgg9Nk5Wstg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Teddy Weverka | xCxl6OFDrptGJZuwxTlK | public | contract | 1,716,985,369,880 | will-tioga-road-open-by-may-29th-20 | TeddyWeverka | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYs8wz6ugEqvtxofXIdn-8Bg2zz_nRePvJR5pGuVw=s96-c | Will Tioga Pass 120 be open by May 29th 2024? | null | 0.011653 | 0 | YES | null |
ubmmkfoe5mq | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "flx2h8tbepl",
"label": "Gen",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Ziddletwix | yuNXsWVFBW77Jl6orbL2 | public | contract | 1,716,985,511,747 | will-billie-eilishs-upcoming-album | Ziddletwix | Will Billie Eilish’s upcoming album, Hit Me Hard and Soft, debut at #1 on Billboard 200? | 9smrlz6rzru | 0.01 | 1,673.362361 | NO | null | |
toq1932bgl | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ubmmkfoe5mq",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Bayesian | yuNXsWVFBW77Jl6orbL2 | public | contract | 1,716,985,603,817 | will-billie-eilishs-upcoming-album | Bayesian | Will Billie Eilish’s upcoming album, Hit Me Hard and Soft, debut at #1 on Billboard 200? | 9smrlz6rzru | 0.01 | 177.805013 | NO | null | |
ku4kg85mp7 | false | bLt6k1O80HbqWMzqrsWtsktGLGx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Does Manifold adhere purely to open source idea sharing? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": ... | Susanne inFrance | XLFdq7MRMXd7ym8PIbTk | public | contract | 1,716,985,612,318 | will-a-major-social-media-site-or-n | SusanneinFrance | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIDOs86WcHU8dwcDIj414T7jk_b0RgedXuz4g-gxhsW=s96-c | Will a major social media site or news outlet incorporate a betting feature that emulates manifold by 2025? | null | null | null | null | null |
vy0sdg4p66r | false | petoMIbaMqdGwl3agbOXjlZVMJs1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "e71xq24zrrj",
"label": "YonatanCale",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Dylan Slagh | ZiXo9apIUCVtm7OHrvvX | public | contract | 1,716,985,632,930 | what-will-be-the-first-year-that-i | DylanSlagh | What will be the first year that I will be able to generate a video of a kitten drinking out of a saucer of milk? | 50opggd8iju | null | 200.974855 | NO | 2136f291273d | |
lt6djjw8aak | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "toq1932bgl",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Ziddletwix | yuNXsWVFBW77Jl6orbL2 | public | contract | 1,716,985,736,334 | will-billie-eilishs-upcoming-album | Ziddletwix | Will Billie Eilish’s upcoming album, Hit Me Hard and Soft, debut at #1 on Billboard 200? | 9smrlz6rzru | 0.01 | 1,673.362361 | NO | null | |
xq7bqwlc22a | false | NpMMO5jy1BajObWxUgg9Nk5Wstg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "umjff72n9r",
"label": "jack",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Teddy Weverka | CRNIlkQqEkYyCwpVNGQC | public | contract | 1,716,985,772,449 | will-superalignment-succeed | TeddyWeverka | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYs8wz6ugEqvtxofXIdn-8Bg2zz_nRePvJR5pGuVw=s96-c | Will Superalignment succeed? (self assessment) | qahuctubquf | 0 | 0 | NO | null |
3sv470w3k2d | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "qqnsgd3136f",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Joshua | DQluW2ylk5m0oaonjxJt | public | contract | 1,716,985,863,030 | which-option-will-golden-gate-gpt-c | Joshua | Which option will Golden Gate GPT choose to win? [Free Response - 48 hours] | qt5cbg8fpq8 | null | null | null | null | |
rwi9r6eify8 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "3sv470w3k2d",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Bayesian | DQluW2ylk5m0oaonjxJt | public | contract | 1,716,985,949,882 | which-option-will-golden-gate-gpt-c | Bayesian | Which option will Golden Gate GPT choose to win? [Free Response - 48 hours] | qt5cbg8fpq8 | null | 820.595934 | YES | 81a52d294e21 | |
cryle8ojfip | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kstbwn34m1",
"label": "TimothyJohnson5c16",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Bayesian | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,716,986,165,143 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | Bayesian | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | kstbwn34m1 | null | 1,222.893852 | NO | 1119a937b6cd | |
yq20q0id4o | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "wild I randomly checked this market and you bet on it in the last minute. so yeah fellas I got a loan from joshua and went from 11k to 14k in a few hou... | Bayesian | Q4pcJPJR0ywWdjidAlwN | public | contract | 1,716,986,289,389 | will-i-get-demoted-from-masters-lea | Bayesian | Will I get demoted from Masters League before July 2nd, 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
z57ml18pix | false | T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Invallen bij medewerker FvD-Europarlementariër om Russische inmengingszaak - ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
... | The Wabi Sabi | ev92zLzlSKVpV87Q391G | public | contract | 1,716,986,338,333 | how-many-dutch-politicians-accordin | TheWabiSabi | How many Dutch politicians according to Czech officials were offered cash to back Russian propaganda? | null | null | 218.854106 | YES | 530f6638a387 | |
xoe4qtas3a | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You should just set a threshold for how high it needs to go to be a \"significant spike\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "... | Daniel | ghsr003xcJpiPAO0KITq | public | contract | 1,716,986,446,882 | will-there-be-a-significant-trendin | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Will "Genetic Algorithm" come back before 2031? | null | null | null | null | null |
0houqhur4f9o | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "371dlbv86od",
"label": "BrunoParga",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Christopher Randles | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,986,570,309 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | 371dlbv86od | null | 167.116902 | YES | 1fe85c689372 |
djuejw9jzm9 | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Do social media posts count? Does he need to say it after market open? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
... | Daniel | RLt8Q8zPq2NMouT17cIn | public | contract | 1,716,986,796,572 | will-trump-say-all-50-states-before | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Will Trump say all 50 states before the election? | null | null | null | null | null |
ugm0oq5p1zm | false | K3Cjs1RMUaZfVECJTUMxvfUtFvl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "miluu03tcuc",
"label": "0xSMW",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | Lukas | E2bt4Pf7xIHFgBC6nyWb | public | contract | 1,716,986,861,759 | is-openai-building-a-search-engine | lxgr | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIJV0pUFgPMw6pHkHAFAYAZrvyWQGsI3e68MniyCfbE194_=s96-c | Is OpenAI building a search engine? | 49nd1pm90fa | null | null | null | null |
ky4lfdzffwp | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "presumably texting them doesn't count as \"verbally uttering\" them; but saying them aloud and recording himself and posting it online counts. id wager... | Bayesian | RLt8Q8zPq2NMouT17cIn | public | contract | 1,716,986,958,758 | will-trump-say-all-50-states-before | Bayesian | Will Trump say all 50 states before the election? | djuejw9jzm9 | 0.292359 | 201.4329 | NO | null | |
xqf7kqpgqxk | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "bj0v6m8zqo",
"label": "SusanneinFrance",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Bayesian | nFhJFFhDIoVhxNPnotBj | public | contract | 1,716,987,115,499 | which-manifold-user-will-create-the | Bayesian | Which Manifold User will create the most markets in 2024? | i6htet3qgbs | null | 6,592.568235 | NO | 67e39e46f4c8 | |
4qebpwi1fwb | false | zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I don't understand the analogy and how it is related",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"... | Rana G | KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0 | public | contract | 1,716,987,277,935 | good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr | RanaG | Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week? | null | null | 126.413694 | YES | bda10a463922 | |
r01drut2yi | false | zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm not EA but it's disgusting to compare Karen who accepts inconsistent stories and vague sometimes contradictory lookup tables as mandatory rules for... | Rana G | KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0 | public | contract | 1,716,987,511,304 | good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr | RanaG | Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week? | null | null | 126.413694 | YES | bda10a463922 | |
stygqwh316h | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Bren has reached the wheel-hook new jump (is it copied from kacky?) and said:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | Kongo Landwalker | WKBsu2T9GKXKmrqdpbQb | public | contract | 1,716,987,663,673 | how-many-days-after-release-will-de | KongoLandwalker | How many days after release will Deep Dip 2 be finished? | null | null | 38.206418 | YES | 11d7e40cae69 | |
t8ksm6vd6um | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "That one video is popping off, wow",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | ttOlxazkn6jAxTHmCT0c | public | contract | 1,716,987,755,073 | will-i-get-1-million-likes-on-my-ti | Bayesian | Will I get 1 million likes on my tiktok account before June 14th 2024? | null | 50 | 183.74792 | NO | null | |
2ar0fmg5s77 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I have now read the description and it all makes sense.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": n... | Bayesian | DQluW2ylk5m0oaonjxJt | public | contract | 1,716,987,925,911 | which-option-will-golden-gate-gpt-c | Bayesian | Which option will Golden Gate GPT choose to win? [Free Response - 48 hours] | qt5cbg8fpq8 | null | 820.595934 | YES | 81a52d294e21 | |
jtp2597w17p | false | q2umyqspKRTNeFlcMQhjLt04A4n2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | aashiq | HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC | public | contract | 1,716,987,966,245 | will-any-image-model-be-able-to-dra | aashiq | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4VZlz6mNajaBLii3A0z76YIPyr0zXxzVWxdAy8=s96-c | Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025? | joriwflu4n | null | null | null | null |
e42gdxfevkt | false | nKlq3behIUMn0fqTY2hLvK2k5I32 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "bgoxuwvu3js",
"label": "Mira_",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | A W | hqTQw1GX53g8obtHvgxO | public | contract | 1,716,988,117,241 | how-many-traders-will-this-market-g | Exegesis | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJDC1ewhAjvtN_WJ9gk6XMTk-YbPEG7uLzvMLdsBGyiUEA=s96-c | How many traders will this market get? | 5gsrinxk49 | null | null | null | null |
8ztsblfgkpl | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "the end is near",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | yp03JOi33SIL0JAnZEqP | public | contract | 1,716,988,412,409 | which-youtube-channels-will-release-8f33bfdf1874 | strutheo | ▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | 2,094.538461 | YES | 449e5906b2c7 | |
8nw0smuv8wv | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "the end is near",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | mqCS6FG3BVQbyziEfbFd | public | contract | 1,716,988,429,619 | which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-3b9178746959 | strutheo | Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in May 2024 according to Manifold? | null | null | 670.843347 | NO | 3272d12afa27 | |
9rp4f21uzm | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "e42gdxfevkt",
"label": "Exegesis",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Christopher Randles | hqTQw1GX53g8obtHvgxO | public | contract | 1,716,988,498,414 | how-many-traders-will-this-market-g | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | How many traders will this market get? | 5gsrinxk49 | null | 201.323258 | YES | 8cf62b48c791 |
z1yhbe6o3w | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "629i3ih5j7u",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | chris (strutheo) | aHCmNidrZfPY7om4Uysf | public | contract | 1,716,988,768,415 | which-market-will-be-manifolds-favo | strutheo | Which market will be Manifold's favorite market of 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | 629i3ih5j7u | null | null | null | null | |
eqi8g4n5i0e | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xqf7kqpgqxk",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Bayesian | nFhJFFhDIoVhxNPnotBj | public | contract | 1,716,988,850,994 | which-manifold-user-will-create-the | Bayesian | Which Manifold User will create the most markets in 2024? | i6htet3qgbs | null | 6,592.568235 | NO | 67e39e46f4c8 | |
322qfg60f42 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "disclaimer: I may have made a mistake somewhere somehow. The data is a few days old.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "parag... | Bayesian | nFhJFFhDIoVhxNPnotBj | public | contract | 1,716,988,935,777 | which-manifold-user-will-create-the | Bayesian | Which Manifold User will create the most markets in 2024? | i6htet3qgbs | null | 6,701.039456 | NO | 67e39e46f4c8 | |
3jz0mbm1u9z | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "There is probably a mistake. I have 285 markets made in total. Many more than 5 of them made in 2023. Hmmm...",
"type": "text"
}
... | Bayesian | nFhJFFhDIoVhxNPnotBj | public | contract | 1,716,988,997,933 | which-manifold-user-will-create-the | Bayesian | Which Manifold User will create the most markets in 2024? | i6htet3qgbs | null | 6,701.039456 | NO | 67e39e46f4c8 | |
9n4dnau8ok9 | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "His behaviour hasn't changed as he's become powerful. People didn't call him unwell before he was powerful. ",
"type": "text"
}
... | Daniel | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,989,008,254 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | null | null | 234.35976 | NO | 65af0d33c6f5 |
rukk7zrg2 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Bayesian | nFhJFFhDIoVhxNPnotBj | public | contract | 1,716,989,088,637 | which-manifold-user-will-create-the | Bayesian | Which Manifold User will create the most markets in 2024? | i6htet3qgbs | null | 6,701.039456 | NO | 67e39e46f4c8 | |
u348knnbr49 | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ggezd6aci88",
"label": "JoshuaB",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Christopher Randles | hqTQw1GX53g8obtHvgxO | public | contract | 1,716,989,231,979 | how-many-traders-will-this-market-g | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | How many traders will this market get? | dj68qht8il | null | 0 | YES | 8cf62b48c791 |
xki0xotwzwd | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "this is just manifest not summer camp ? so hackathon doesnt count?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
... | chris (strutheo) | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,716,989,785,830 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | strutheo | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | null | null | 762.539861 | NO | dccbbaa3142f | |
spnnce010bm | false | 3P4jYmiRLYPZysvyXy7hmRxOYPz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lia7z5xujr",
"label": "fd19f3",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | Connor Dolan | 2zwnbjEX55TK5oVRDR3c | public | contract | 1,716,989,907,941 | do-you-identify-as-ea-or-eacc | ConnorDolan | Do you identify as EA or E/acc? | 4fcm0g12f2s | null | null | null | null | |
kgwp1f6c41f | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xki0xotwzwd",
"label": "strutheo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Joshua | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,716,989,914,533 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | Joshua | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | xki0xotwzwd | null | 39.416532 | NO | a3a1c1011005 | |
qd27mzdsmu | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In my tests this one won every single time. But adding it, I lose like 1000M because I spent too much on others that would have won if it hadn't been a... | Bayesian | DQluW2ylk5m0oaonjxJt | public | contract | 1,716,989,930,809 | which-option-will-golden-gate-gpt-c | Bayesian | Which option will Golden Gate GPT choose to win? [Free Response - 48 hours] | null | null | 3,443.276149 | YES | f1c081e3e964 | |
lfqji68o30d | false | oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How many girlfriends have you had?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mongo | ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl | public | contract | 1,716,989,963,106 | will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c | mongo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I_X--wyVrh_ZPix4FSV8YMpbXtxCdMU-qkPeUUA=s96-c | Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
k7zzuclsvzc | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xoe4qtas3a",
"label": "Daniel_MC",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | RemNi | ghsr003xcJpiPAO0KITq | public | contract | 1,716,989,968,129 | will-there-be-a-significant-trendin | RemNi | Will "Genetic Algorithm" come back before 2031? | xoe4qtas3a | 0.492672 | 51.657604 | YES | null | |
im0h2ah0of8 | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Badly mispriced given the volitity of the two stocks ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs... | Daniel | Krj0BjQUZ0qYzWJO0jSn | public | contract | 1,716,990,063,640 | will-reddit-or-truth-social-have-a-0579e74c0301 | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Will Reddit or Truth Social have a higher share price at the end of 2024? | null | null | 1,347.917904 | NO | e17f3253d12b |
4lyima9nnvc | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I wish there was a better market format for incentivizing people to create the option that ends up winning. like 2 years ago when I went on manifold fo... | Bayesian | DQluW2ylk5m0oaonjxJt | public | contract | 1,716,990,069,434 | which-option-will-golden-gate-gpt-c | Bayesian | Which option will Golden Gate GPT choose to win? [Free Response - 48 hours] | qd27mzdsmu | null | 3,443.276149 | YES | f1c081e3e964 | |
u9r5xftkvom | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "y1tn7yycrbj",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | stefanie | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,716,990,083,906 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | shankypanky | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | y1tn7yycrbj | null | 617.951559 | YES | 829f28a01148 | |
zalhqlkhmz | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "u9r5xftkvom",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Bayesian | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,716,990,161,691 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | Bayesian | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | y1tn7yycrbj | null | 318.29089 | YES | a91610a3c578 | |
e78pih7h19m | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "zalhqlkhmz",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Joshua | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,716,990,199,743 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | Joshua | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | y1tn7yycrbj | null | 39.416532 | NO | a3a1c1011005 | |
qn64lgpuubb | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "e78pih7h19m",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | stefanie | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,716,990,309,110 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | shankypanky | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | y1tn7yycrbj | null | 617.951559 | YES | 829f28a01148 | |
pdlnbk66et | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If anyone needs help I can be bribed at the right price. Not that I'm attending but..",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "para... | Bayesian | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,716,990,398,556 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | Bayesian | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | y1tn7yycrbj | null | 318.29089 | YES | a91610a3c578 | |
b34gs7ywyr | false | BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "f1yhglnruc6",
"label": "IsaacKing",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | For Truth | Vn56ON2GtAd65aSB4A5m | public | contract | 1,716,990,424,894 | will-anybody-born-before-2000-live | ForTruth | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c | Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150? | wq3bvhduiym | null | null | null | null |
7gqh9n9juv | false | PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ugm0oq5p1zm",
"label": "lxgr",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | 0xSMW | E2bt4Pf7xIHFgBC6nyWb | public | contract | 1,716,990,439,057 | is-openai-building-a-search-engine | 0xSMW | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtebzQADjl9sxVe3FwAwXHh0rvywWS3WBEkCu89gmBWd7hs=s96-c | Is OpenAI building a search engine? | 49nd1pm90fa | 0.814821 | 437.559324 | YES | null |
9jrwrhymf6d | false | kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What sources are the people voting No reading? Every other week I see an article like this one where the message is \"A war is imminent, and if it happ... | Jon Simon | QFmkYY3sJVgVjC4wimQW | public | contract | 1,716,990,443,164 | if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s | jonsimon | If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed? | null | 0.481958 | 18,961.255394 | YES | null | |
4a62viyb7jx | false | hQbeiz4VmvY6HxxJAT87V5pFuhS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "OK, I’m not the smartest guy in the world and didn’t know who Norman Borlaug was. I looked him up, and holy cow – absolutely putting my money in for hi... | Mark Bowen | URJwyGSo2oNAsIhYNpvS | public | contract | 1,716,990,449,019 | -who-is-manifolds-goat-elite-8-plac | MarkBowen | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrhpHD9z-sCsnmuOnjdBUlN3oTne-OC3D7JhuvNtooLwQT=s96-c | 🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Elite 8) | null | null | 657.455002 | NO | 7c695945736b |
2miq1te8lm8 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It won around 30 times in a row during my tests.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | DQluW2ylk5m0oaonjxJt | public | contract | 1,716,990,491,324 | which-option-will-golden-gate-gpt-c | Bayesian | Which option will Golden Gate GPT choose to win? [Free Response - 48 hours] | qd27mzdsmu | null | 3,476.59301 | YES | af4n5fhmy7 | |
wllfs80fcig | false | vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The Subsidy is the bribe! Although some of these are still a little swingy so...",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph... | Manifold Politics | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,716,990,495,241 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | ManifoldPolitics | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | y1tn7yycrbj | null | 1,104.921813 | NO | 68bd808c2fa2 | |
g4vjmjr3gv5 | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "k7zzuclsvzc",
"label": "RemNi",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | Daniel | ghsr003xcJpiPAO0KITq | public | contract | 1,716,990,512,970 | will-there-be-a-significant-trendin | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Will "Genetic Algorithm" come back before 2031? | xoe4qtas3a | null | null | null | null |
gcnx97jf3h | false | sTA6HlnkiKg71RJrKSVO9vAUhuz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think there's potential for good* philosophy work following the recent Anthropic interpretability paper, even something simple such as analyzing conc... | Yonatan Cale | GoyvW7tV96yNTqeYvr1M | public | contract | 1,716,990,665,398 | ai-generated-philosophy-book-worth | YonatanCale | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbo0x7JyTSgvNs2bXvjlLNK0zEagNxQ3ivESPcak1E=s96-c | AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)? | null | 0.387709 | 32.788463 | YES | null |
di430dd2dn | false | hQbeiz4VmvY6HxxJAT87V5pFuhS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The statement “it is important to understand that he wields power” is not any more true about Elon Musk than it is true of any other other hyper wealth... | Mark Bowen | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,990,694,614 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | MarkBowen | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrhpHD9z-sCsnmuOnjdBUlN3oTne-OC3D7JhuvNtooLwQT=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | null | null | null | null | null |
ljv1gqtihtd | false | kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You all should read more Noahpinion. War is coming. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null... | Jon Simon | UemTPJpOoWsApwiMwWqZ | public | contract | 1,716,990,701,281 | when-will-china-invade-taiwan | jonsimon | When will China invade Taiwan | null | null | 57.345151 | YES | 39faab7ff991 | |
nbak6ekpqhn | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "3y4t95qanyb",
"label": "Lion",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Christopher Randles | 5E2YmsdyCzN0NLgamFHW | public | contract | 1,716,991,004,212 | who-will-be-the-richest-person-in-t-6a26849b397f | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Who will be the richest person in the world at the end of May 31st 2024? (Forbes) | 3y4t95qanyb | null | 538.13927 | YES | a5d9fcf0c59b |
7xda6f381f6 | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "g4vjmjr3gv5",
"label": "Daniel_MC",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | RemNi | ghsr003xcJpiPAO0KITq | public | contract | 1,716,991,012,196 | will-there-be-a-significant-trendin | RemNi | Will "Genetic Algorithm" come back before 2031? | xoe4qtas3a | 0.492672 | 51.657604 | YES | null | |
tvjk5d8rxva | false | JbR42honqBfz9TCHnHk0JGERPit2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "sbrqwv47qks",
"label": "mint",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | $aturation | lHRfcBWCswVpBPLe0PE2 | public | contract | 1,716,991,021,346 | will-a-nato-country-put-boots-on-th | smokey | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKqNxgPFHnX0iy5ad3wtLe11iFMhuFJfWYG6Cpg1vnJvoewVQ=s96-c | Will a NATO country put boots on the ground in Ukraine before 1 Sept, 2024? | sbrqwv47qks | 0.097394 | 0 | YES | null |
m208r3mfev | false | Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "9jrwrhymf6d",
"label": "jonsimon",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Enlil | QFmkYY3sJVgVjC4wimQW | public | contract | 1,716,991,107,661 | if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s | Enlil | If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed? | 9jrwrhymf6d | 0.481958 | 2,720.979959 | YES | null | |
7pgrku9doso | false | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "tvjk5d8rxva",
"label": "smokey",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | mint | lHRfcBWCswVpBPLe0PE2 | public | contract | 1,716,991,121,444 | will-a-nato-country-put-boots-on-th | mint | Will a NATO country put boots on the ground in Ukraine before 1 Sept, 2024? | sbrqwv47qks | 0.097394 | 1,403.410062 | YES | null | |
jm11y6hyhhh | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ljv1gqtihtd",
"label": "jonsimon",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Daniel | UemTPJpOoWsApwiMwWqZ | public | contract | 1,716,991,200,067 | when-will-china-invade-taiwan | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | When will China invade Taiwan | ljv1gqtihtd | null | null | null | null |
ijbgntazka | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "7GDCHxOW7PVN2OhCr2jiM326q5V2",
"label": "Kaleem",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Christopher Randles | HyCbua8KP7XdawLVvK1l | public | contract | 1,716,991,369,649 | will-joe-gomez-score-a-goal-for-liv | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Will Joe Gomez score a goal for Liverpool before Jurgen Klopp leaves? | null | 0.01016 | 1,951.094773 | NO | null |
m5zbgydbibm | false | kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "jm11y6hyhhh",
"label": "Daniel_MC",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Jon Simon | UemTPJpOoWsApwiMwWqZ | public | contract | 1,716,991,399,826 | when-will-china-invade-taiwan | jonsimon | When will China invade Taiwan | ljv1gqtihtd | null | 57.345151 | YES | 39faab7ff991 | |
ul8z2rr2vq8 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Bayesian | Q4pcJPJR0ywWdjidAlwN | public | contract | 1,716,991,451,457 | will-i-get-demoted-from-masters-lea | Bayesian | Will I get demoted from Masters League before July 2nd, 2024? | yq20q0id4o | 0.787893 | 799.768941 | NO | null | |
vi68tb7b2yl | false | sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "340.2 miles through today.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | William Kiely | xR7muEaJGHqntv2Gi1k4 | public | contract | 1,716,991,589,461 | how-many-miles-will-i-william-kiely | WilliamKiely | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg0bVfb9qX1mtjRci6TDxQ9fvGI6Kn-DjGd5bmsTKQ=s96-c | How many miles will I @WilliamKiely run in 2024? | null | null | 175.875223 | YES | 6b12f30769aa |
p6oxctvx5bh | false | 13plihwXYbcbcOexVdT6FwxILnn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolves ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
... | siraben | jsD0Am5j9sR5TD2aUzXH | public | contract | 1,716,991,608,246 | who-will-be-the-next-yale-president | siraben | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIs4A4vujbdVB1d-wqB5ZbOQIv-B3jMwt3yjf6luBMT=s96-c | Who will be the next Yale President after Peter Salovey? | null | null | 349.422712 | NO | a95e619cce76 |
awk92z4f0w5 | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "oytwrfj7eoe",
"label": "mint",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Joshua | RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg | public | contract | 1,716,991,616,897 | what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire | Joshua | What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal Announced, Rafah Ground Invasion (Per NYT/WSJ), or June 1st? | y5d5o8lz7yd | null | 0 | NO | 74177def07ab | |
hl4fbrgh8mi | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Arbitrage:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contract... | Daniel | RBqtLB6oTmEwVhRCMMPu | public | contract | 1,716,991,699,142 | will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas-927f2f1001e5 | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028? | null | null | null | null | null |
yodajq1f1x | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | D0jqgpMGfTrA7W6aMeen | public | contract | 1,716,991,726,750 | will-elon-musk-step-foot-on-mars-be | strutheo | Will Elon Musk step foot on Mars before he passes away? | null | null | null | null | null | |
i9aghql39c | false | Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Has there been any traction at all for these? When I first learned about this I expected these lights to become ubiquitous, especially in public transp... | Enlil | ZveuctJpPcIt8OkNSCzA | public | contract | 1,716,991,765,464 | by-the-end-of-2029-will-there-be-a | Enlil | By the end of 2029 will there be a UV light company worth $1 billion? | null | 0.25 | 129.229432 | NO | null | |
zbotwokxm1c | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "9n4dnau8ok9",
"label": "Daniel_MC",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Christopher Randles | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,991,831,501 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | 9n4dnau8ok9 | null | 167.116902 | YES | 1fe85c689372 |
q7j2yzmtr99 | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "m5zbgydbibm",
"label": "jonsimon",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Daniel | UemTPJpOoWsApwiMwWqZ | public | contract | 1,716,991,990,942 | when-will-china-invade-taiwan | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | When will China invade Taiwan | ljv1gqtihtd | null | null | null | null |
jbzbnpubj2q | false | 7GDCHxOW7PVN2OhCr2jiM326q5V2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ijbgntazka",
"label": "ChristopherRandles",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Kaleem Ahmid | HyCbua8KP7XdawLVvK1l | public | contract | 1,716,992,086,466 | will-joe-gomez-score-a-goal-for-liv | Kaleem | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0HN7STIL7qXHbglQUL_huyASb8d4u7DZOFuiGv6w=s96-c | Will Joe Gomez score a goal for Liverpool before Jurgen Klopp leaves? | ijbgntazka | 0.01016 | 21.045525 | YES | null |
ltcjuqqgem | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "yq20q0id4o",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Ziddletwix | Q4pcJPJR0ywWdjidAlwN | public | contract | 1,716,992,344,856 | will-i-get-demoted-from-masters-lea | Ziddletwix | Will I get demoted from Masters League before July 2nd, 2024? | yq20q0id4o | 0.787893 | 277.755736 | YES | null | |
9n57brmiqvb | false | JbR42honqBfz9TCHnHk0JGERPit2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "7pgrku9doso",
"label": "mint",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | $aturation | lHRfcBWCswVpBPLe0PE2 | public | contract | 1,716,992,354,229 | will-a-nato-country-put-boots-on-th | smokey | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKqNxgPFHnX0iy5ad3wtLe11iFMhuFJfWYG6Cpg1vnJvoewVQ=s96-c | Will a NATO country put boots on the ground in Ukraine before 1 Sept, 2024? | sbrqwv47qks | 0.097394 | 0 | YES | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.