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"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDOCm4rCDKp.png?alt=media&token=07dfbd2e-9c04-49ca-8dc3-fdf7c8b05ceb",
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} | Bayesian | nFhJFFhDIoVhxNPnotBj | public | contract | 1,716,988,850,994 | which-manifold-user-will-create-the | Bayesian | Which Manifold User will create the most markets in 2024? | i6htet3qgbs | null | 6,592.568235 | NO | 67e39e46f4c8 | |
322qfg60f42 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
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"text": "disclaimer: I may have made a mistake somewhere somehow. The data is a few days old.",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | nFhJFFhDIoVhxNPnotBj | public | contract | 1,716,988,935,777 | which-manifold-user-will-create-the | Bayesian | Which Manifold User will create the most markets in 2024? | i6htet3qgbs | null | 6,701.039456 | NO | 67e39e46f4c8 | |
3jz0mbm1u9z | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
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"text": "There is probably a mistake. I have 285 markets made in total. Many more than 5 of them made in 2023. Hmmm...",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | nFhJFFhDIoVhxNPnotBj | public | contract | 1,716,988,997,933 | which-manifold-user-will-create-the | Bayesian | Which Manifold User will create the most markets in 2024? | i6htet3qgbs | null | 6,701.039456 | NO | 67e39e46f4c8 | |
9n4dnau8ok9 | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
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"content": [
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"text": "His behaviour hasn't changed as he's become powerful. People didn't call him unwell before he was powerful. ",
"type": "text"
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],
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],
"type": "doc"
} | Daniel | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,989,008,254 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | null | null | 234.35976 | NO | 65af0d33c6f5 |
rukk7zrg2 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
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{
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"text": "from cache import load_markets\nfrom datetime import datetime\nmarkets = load_markets()\nmarkets[0]['createdTime']",
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}
],
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"content": [
{
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"text": "def market_created_time_in_2024(market):\n created_time_str = str(market['createdTime']) # 1716430315206\n created_time = datetime.fromtimestamp(int(created_time_str) / 1000)\n return created_time.year == 2024\n\nmarkets = list(filter(market_created_time_in_2024, markets))",
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},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "# count the number of markets created by each market creator\nfrom collections import defaultdict\nmarket_creators = defaultdict(int)\nfor market in markets:\n market_creators[market['creatorUsername']] += 1",
"type": "text"
}
],
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{
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"text": "# sort market creators by number of markets created\nmarket_creators = sorted(market_creators.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)\n\nfor i, (creator, count) in enumerate(market_creators[:20]):\n print(f'{i+1:3}. {creator[:18]:18}|{count:10,}')",
"type": "text"
}
],
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],
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} | Bayesian | nFhJFFhDIoVhxNPnotBj | public | contract | 1,716,989,088,637 | which-manifold-user-will-create-the | Bayesian | Which Manifold User will create the most markets in 2024? | i6htet3qgbs | null | 6,701.039456 | NO | 67e39e46f4c8 | |
u348knnbr49 | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
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{
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{
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"text": " jumping up from 100 to 137 was more than I wanted to see. Seems like 144 may be reached, which gives another month and maybe it gets close to or even reaches 233 in that time ... so how far does it go?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Christopher Randles | hqTQw1GX53g8obtHvgxO | public | contract | 1,716,989,231,979 | how-many-traders-will-this-market-g | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | How many traders will this market get? | dj68qht8il | null | 0 | YES | 8cf62b48c791 |
xki0xotwzwd | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
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"text": "this is just manifest not summer camp ? so hackathon doesnt count?",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,716,989,785,830 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | strutheo | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | null | null | 762.539861 | NO | dccbbaa3142f | |
spnnce010bm | false | 3P4jYmiRLYPZysvyXy7hmRxOYPz1 | {
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{
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"text": " The oppurtunity costs of delaying means a lot of humans will suffer in the mean time, for an uncertain chance of actually preventing doom. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Connor Dolan | 2zwnbjEX55TK5oVRDR3c | public | contract | 1,716,989,907,941 | do-you-identify-as-ea-or-eacc | ConnorDolan | Do you identify as EA or E/acc? | 4fcm0g12f2s | null | null | null | null | |
kgwp1f6c41f | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
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{
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"marks": null,
"text": " Yup, manifest only. ",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,716,989,914,533 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | Joshua | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | xki0xotwzwd | null | 39.416532 | NO | a3a1c1011005 | |
qd27mzdsmu | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
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"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "In my tests this one won every single time. But adding it, I lose like 1000M because I spent too much on others that would have won if it hadn't been added. Still worth it though. It's an International Orange Wonder alright.",
"type": "text"
}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | DQluW2ylk5m0oaonjxJt | public | contract | 1,716,989,930,809 | which-option-will-golden-gate-gpt-c | Bayesian | Which option will Golden Gate GPT choose to win? [Free Response - 48 hours] | null | null | 3,443.276149 | YES | f1c081e3e964 | |
lfqji68o30d | false | oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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{
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"text": "How many girlfriends have you had?",
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} | mongo | ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl | public | contract | 1,716,989,963,106 | will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c | mongo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I_X--wyVrh_ZPix4FSV8YMpbXtxCdMU-qkPeUUA=s96-c | Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
k7zzuclsvzc | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
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"text": " yeah can do. I'm a bit concerned Google with change the metric though, or just sunset trends altogether ",
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} | RemNi | ghsr003xcJpiPAO0KITq | public | contract | 1,716,989,968,129 | will-there-be-a-significant-trendin | RemNi | Will "Genetic Algorithm" come back before 2031? | xoe4qtas3a | 0.492672 | 51.657604 | YES | null | |
im0h2ah0of8 | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
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"text": "Badly mispriced given the volitity of the two stocks ",
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"text": "I would imagine Trump's stock would really if he won as well. ",
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} | Daniel | Krj0BjQUZ0qYzWJO0jSn | public | contract | 1,716,990,063,640 | will-reddit-or-truth-social-have-a-0579e74c0301 | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Will Reddit or Truth Social have a higher share price at the end of 2024? | null | null | 1,347.917904 | NO | e17f3253d12b |
4lyima9nnvc | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
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"text": "I wish there was a better market format for incentivizing people to create the option that ends up winning. like 2 years ago when I went on manifold for like a few days I remember creating an option for cheap and getting lots of mana out of it bc the option won. That probably doesn't work for lots of reasons but still, hmmmm",
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"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | DQluW2ylk5m0oaonjxJt | public | contract | 1,716,990,069,434 | which-option-will-golden-gate-gpt-c | Bayesian | Which option will Golden Gate GPT choose to win? [Free Response - 48 hours] | qd27mzdsmu | null | 3,443.276149 | YES | f1c081e3e964 | |
u9r5xftkvom | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
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"text": " pretty sure people are already keen to manipulate the market on their own accord lol",
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],
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"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,716,990,083,906 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | shankypanky | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | y1tn7yycrbj | null | 617.951559 | YES | 829f28a01148 | |
zalhqlkhmz | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
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{
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"text": " never ENOUGH. will they obsess over it for days beforehand? Will they buy specific objects that will help them resolve options positively? THEY MUST, AND WE MUST GUIDE THEM.",
"type": "text"
}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,716,990,161,691 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | Bayesian | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | y1tn7yycrbj | null | 318.29089 | YES | a91610a3c578 | |
e78pih7h19m | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
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"text": " That has definitely already happened ",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,716,990,199,743 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | Joshua | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | y1tn7yycrbj | null | 39.416532 | NO | a3a1c1011005 | |
qn64lgpuubb | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
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{
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"text": " without a bribe even - how embarrassing for the unbribed when they learn they worked for free unnecessarily!",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,716,990,309,110 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | shankypanky | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | y1tn7yycrbj | null | 617.951559 | YES | 829f28a01148 | |
pdlnbk66et | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
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"text": "If anyone needs help I can be bribed at the right price. Not that I'm attending but..",
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}
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],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,716,990,398,556 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | Bayesian | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | y1tn7yycrbj | null | 318.29089 | YES | a91610a3c578 | |
b34gs7ywyr | false | BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82 | {
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"text": " I have no idea what this means. At least one computation must happen per year? per day? per minute? per second? per millisecond? per nanosecond? per picosecond?",
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"text": "Or do you mean the hardware that runs the computation must have a constant source of power?",
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} | For Truth | Vn56ON2GtAd65aSB4A5m | public | contract | 1,716,990,424,894 | will-anybody-born-before-2000-live | ForTruth | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c | Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150? | wq3bvhduiym | null | null | null | null |
7gqh9n9juv | false | PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63 | {
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"text": " You seem to just want to pick a fight. DuckDuckGo is considered a search engine by their users, most notably their biggest public fan, Joe Rogan. If you have legitimate questions about truly ambiguous information, feel free to ask. I placed a single trade after treating to showcase where my opinion stands but I’m happy to be wrong. ",
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"text": "Like I said: if you don’t like the definition of a search engine in this market, you may create your own. I’m happy to support you and your market and trade in it as well. ",
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} | 0xSMW | E2bt4Pf7xIHFgBC6nyWb | public | contract | 1,716,990,439,057 | is-openai-building-a-search-engine | 0xSMW | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtebzQADjl9sxVe3FwAwXHh0rvywWS3WBEkCu89gmBWd7hs=s96-c | Is OpenAI building a search engine? | 49nd1pm90fa | 0.814821 | 437.559324 | YES | null |
9jrwrhymf6d | false | kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2 | {
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"text": "What sources are the people voting No reading? Every other week I see an article like this one where the message is \"A war is imminent, and if it happens now no one including the US will be willing or able to defend Taiwan. But maaaybe if we're lucky we can turn things around in a few years?\" ",
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"text": "The fact that this market is still below 50% is baffling to me, but unfortunately I'm tapped out of mana since loans were discontinued.",
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} | Jon Simon | QFmkYY3sJVgVjC4wimQW | public | contract | 1,716,990,443,164 | if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s | jonsimon | If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed? | null | 0.481958 | 18,961.255394 | YES | null | |
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"text": "The bar isn't this high or this specific, but every outlet has so far been very clear that there is an anticipated version of this operation that is \"full scale\". They could also be clear that the operation has stopped being limited and started being that anticipated, escalated action. The WSJ isn't saying that right now.",
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"text": "Has there been any traction at all for these? When I first learned about this I expected these lights to become ubiquitous, especially in public transport, airports, etc. However, here we are years later and I haven't heard a single story about these getting deployed or a single advertisement or display in a store. Nobody offline I've mentioned these to even knew about it. It's quite disappointing",
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"text": " Yes I agree though would probably express it more as: someone not achieving anything talking like Elon, I might view as deluded or even wildly deluded, but I don't think that would/should qualify as mentally ill. 88% seems way too high.",
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"text": "At first glance I would say yes, a blockade is an act of war under international law, Taiwan surrenders, and troops occupy their territory. ",
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ltcjuqqgem | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
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9n57brmiqvb | false | JbR42honqBfz9TCHnHk0JGERPit2 | {
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"text": " I updated the question formulation with this, thanks! ",
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} | $aturation | lHRfcBWCswVpBPLe0PE2 | public | contract | 1,716,992,354,229 | will-a-nato-country-put-boots-on-th | smokey | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKqNxgPFHnX0iy5ad3wtLe11iFMhuFJfWYG6Cpg1vnJvoewVQ=s96-c | Will a NATO country put boots on the ground in Ukraine before 1 Sept, 2024? | sbrqwv47qks | 0.097394 | 0 | YES | null |
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